highlights of 2014 fall enrollment estimates
DESCRIPTION
Analysis of estimated, undergraduate enrollment in Massachusetts public colleges and universities in fall 2014, set in the context of past enrollment trends and future projections. After a decade of substantial growth, the system is seeing its first slight decline. Presented to the Massachusetts Board of Higher Education on October 21, 2014.TRANSCRIPT
Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 21, 2014
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Highlights: 2014 Enrollment EstimatesFirst Enrollment Decline in a Decade
Peak Year
-2,302 Decline
3
-2,807 -236
+741
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
Enrollment by Segment
-3,501 +1,642
+3,446
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Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
1-Year Changes: Detailed View
Total
UndergraduatesFirst-Time
UndergraduatesTransfer
UndergraduatesAll Institutions -2,302 -899 -198
Community Colleges -2807 -1081 -347State Universities -236 +48 -82
UMass +741 +134 +231
1-Year % Change by Group
1-Year # Change by Group
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Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
1-Year Changes: Detailed View
One-Year Increase in UMass Enrollment
By Student Residency
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Campuses with 1-Year Growth of More than 1% Bunker Hill* (+1.8%, +253 students) Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts (+1.9%,
+29 students) Massachusetts Maritime Academy* (+2.8%, +38
students) UMass Boston* (+2.7%, +334 students) UMass Lowell* (+2.2%, +286 students)
* Campus has had increases every year for the past decade.
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
1-Year Changes: Detailed View
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Campuses with 1-Year Declines Declining community colleges range from -
0.1% to -8.8% Declining state universities range from -0.4%
to -7.6% UMass—no declines; one campus was flat
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
1-Year Changes: Detailed View
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Highlights: 2014 Enrollment EstimatesComparison with Donahue Projection
• The Donahue Institute used Census data and enrollment trends to develop demographic scenarios for Massachusetts public higher education.
• As new annual American Community Surveys of the Census are released, the Donahue Institute updates the demographic analyses.
193,846 Donahue Projection
194,545 Actual
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Highlights: 2014 Enrollment EstimatesConsensus Among Multiple Projections
Donahue: Public Higher Ed Enrollments
WICHE: High School Graduates
NCES: 2010-2023 Change in Public High School GraduatesDecline 5% or more
Decline up to 5%Grow up to 5%Grow 5% or more
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Implementation of new system-wide policies and practices can significantly change the trajectory
The “Big Three” Completion Plan will be highlighted in Degrees of Urgency, third Vision Project annual report being released October 28
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
Strategies to Address Declines
