Historical and Recent Climate Trends in Missouri & Weather Resources

Pat Guinan Extension/State Climatologist

FCS Financial Seminars February 17-25, 2011

U.S. National Weather ServiceCooperative Weather Station Network

“The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”

28 Pioneer Stations (still active)

NWS Cooperative Network in Missouri

What have been the annual temperature trends for Missouri?

Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2010)

Long-term average: 54.6°F5 yr. running mean

Warm PeriodCool Period

1921 193119381946

1954

18951904

19171924 1979

What have been the seasonal temperature trends for Missouri?

Missouri Average Winter Temperature (Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2010*)

*The winter of 2010 is defined as Dec 2009 and Jan, Feb 2010

Long-term average: 32.4°F1931-32

1904-05 1917-18 1935-36Warm PeriodCool Period

1977-78 1978-79

’91-92 ’97-98’01-02

’99-00

2009-10 winter was coldest in 28 years and current 2010-11 winter is even colder!!

5 yr. running mean

Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2010)

Long-term average: 54.2°F

193819461977 1991

2007

1924 19471960

19831984

Warm PeriodCool Period

5 yr. running mean

Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)

2010 WAS HOTTEST SUMMER IN 30 YEARS FOR MISSOURI!!

Long-term average: 75.6°F

7th hottest1901

193419361954 1980

19151927 1950 1992 2004

Warm PeriodCool Period

2010 WAS ALSO AN UNCOMFORTABLE SUMMER…

Average Summer Dewpoint Temperature (°F) for Columbia, MO Jun-Jul-Aug 2010

20101993 1995

1976

19751967

Columbia, MO Average Summer Maximum Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)

Columbia, MO Average Summer Minimum Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)

6th warmest

Columbia, Missouri No. of Days When the Temperature Was ≥ 100°F

(1890-2010)

1901

1936

1954

1934

1980

More triple-digit heat in 1936 than in the past 23 years in Columbia!!

Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2010)

1931

1938

1963

19711998

1896 1951

1976

19931996

Warm PeriodCool Period

5 yr. running mean

Long-term average: 56.5°F

What about recent temperature trends for

Missouri?

Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average* (Jan 2004 – Jan 2011)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1st warmest January

4th warmest March Warming up

in 2010

5th coolest summer

Easter Freeze

Cool 2-yr period

What have been the annual precipitation trends for Missouri?

Missouri Annual Average Precipitation (1895-2010)

Long-term average: 41.12” 5 yr. running mean

Wet PeriodDry Period

1898 1927 1973 1993 2008

1901 1953

1963 1976 1980

#1

#8

1927-29 total: 148.68 in. (+25.32”)

2008-10 total: 153.30 in. (+29.94”)

What have been the seasonal precipitation trends for Missouri?

Missouri Average Winter Precipitation (Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2010*)

*The winter of 2010 is defined as Dec 2009 and Jan, Feb 2010Long-term average: 6.58”

1915-161936-37

1948-491949-50

1984-85

1919-201963-64 1969-70 1975-76

1962-63Wet PeriodDry Period

5 yr. running mean

Missouri Average Spring Precipitation (Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2010)

Long-term average: 12.12”

1898

Dry PeriodWet Period

19271945

19732008

19301932 1934 1936

1971

5 yr. running mean

Missouri Average Summer Precipitation (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)

Long-term average: 12.19”5 yr. running mean

1915 1928 1951 1981 1993

1901 1913

1936 19531983

Wet PeriodDry Period

Missouri Average Autumn Precipitation (Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2010)

1926

1941

198419861993

Long-term average: 10.23”

Wet PeriodDry Period

5 yr. running mean

18971904 195019531956

Have precipitation events become more frequent in

Missouri?

Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 0.01 in Missouri 1895-2009

19731951 199320081945

10 yr. running mean

19761953 19631936 1988

What are trends of heavy and extreme

precipitation events in Missouri?

Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 1 inch in Missouri 1895-2009

Data Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center

19272008

2009

19931973 1985

10 yr. running mean1895-1952: 17,331 events 1953-2009: 17,505 events

Average: 303 events

All-time 24-hour precipitation records (inches)

6.55” 7/7/1898

6.61” 9/2/1918

6.27” 11/24/1987

5.80” 7/29/1910

7.67” 7/25/2008

6.60” 1/2/18979.10”

7/3/1976

8.82” 9/12/1977

8.78” 8/16/1946

6.78” 7/4/1976

9.21” 3/19/2008

7.50” 12/20/1895

7.00” 12/16/1895

12.25” 7/10/1922

5.37” 8/12/1993

10.22” 7/10/1922

5.87” 4/21/1973

6.17” 9/14/1998

6.52” 11/16/1928

7.34” 6/20/1928

9.00” 6/29/1957

6.21” 10/18/1905

10.65” 4/11/1994

9.10” 10/3/1986 7.90”

7/26/1998

11.38” 9/23/2006

8.24” 3/19/2008

6.60” 9/13/1961

No. of Decade Records

1895-99 4 1900-09 1 1910-19 2 1920-29 4 1930-39 0 1940-49 1 1950-59 1 1960-69 1 1970-79 4 1980-89 2 1990-99 4 2000-09 4

Half have occurred since the 1970’s

18.18” 7/20/1965

St. Louis, Missouri Annual Precipitation (in.) (1837-2010) Unofficial: 1837-1869

Official: 1870-2010

10 yr. running mean1982 2008

18481858

1859

1871 Wet PeriodDry Period

193019401953 1976

Year

What about recent precipitation trends for

Missouri?

Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* (Jan 2004 – Jan 2011)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1st Wettest Year on Record

8th Wettest Year on Record

Total Precipitation Departure from Mean in inches Jan 2008 to Dec 2010

Highest above normal departures in the United States!!

Departure from Normal Precipitation (in) Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2010

Extreme wetness

to Extreme drought

Summary

•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in 1998; 10 out of the past 13 years have been above normal. The 1930’s ranks as the warmest decade on record for Missouri.

•Seasonally, Missouri winters have experienced the greatest warming trend (15 out of the past 22 winters (~ 68%) have been above normal and 4 out of the 5 warmest winters on record have occurred since 1991).

Missouri Climate Trends

•Following winter, the biggest seasonal warming trend in Missouri has been during the spring period (Mar-Apr-May); there have been only two cooler than normal springs since 1998.

•The median last spring frost date in Missouri has occurred about 2-7 days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.

SummaryMissouri Climate Trends

•Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and autumn have been weak. Missouri has not witnessed an exceptionally hot summer in 30 years.

•The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.

•Beginning in the early 1980’s, and since 1895, an unprecedented wet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 20 out of 30 years (~67%) have had above normal precipitation.

•Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in winter where 20 out the past 29 winters recorded above normal precipitation (~69%).

SummaryMissouri Climate Trends

• 28 pioneer weather stations have been reporting daily precipitation for 115 years, or since 1895; half of these stations have broken all-time 24-hour precipitation records since 1973 (over the past 37 years).

•Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) precipitation events compared to the long-term average.

•Since 1970, 68% of the years, or 27 out of 40 years, have experienced an above normal number of days with measurable precipitation events (≥ 0.01”) in Missouri compared to the long-term average.

www.climate.missouri.edu

Extension Commercial Agriculture Automated Weather Station Network

agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm

Real-time(Updates every 5 minutes)

One new station added in 2010 for a total of 30 in the network.

www.cocorahs.org

CoCoRaHS

Jan 2011 277/day Dec 2010 280/day Nov 2010 297/day Oct 2010 294/day Sep 2010 297/day Aug 2010 290/day

Missouri

www.cocorahs.org

September 2, 2010

MO-CR-406.30

6.936.608.007.93

7.96 10.217.598.226.99

2.01

4.526.00

5.854.58 2.01

1.290.14

0.84

0.75

December 31, 2010

CoCoRaHS Impacts and Application:

•Drought Assessment

•Preventive Planting policies•River Forecast Centers- model application

•Flash Flood Assessment

•Lagoon Management

The CoCoRaHS network has been operational in Missouri for almost 5 years and has been a valuable resource. Currently, nearly 300 observers report daily in Missouri and all 114 counties in the state have at least one observer. Outcomes associated with having a viable, online real-time network of precipitation observing in Missouri include:

Missouri Weather Update

Departure From Normal Temperature (°F) December 1, 2010 to February 12, 2011

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

Total Snowfall (inches) December 1, 2010 to February 14, 2011

5-15 in.

15-25 in.25-35 in.

35-45 in.

1) 54.9 1978 2) 46.2 1912 3) 44.0 1960 4) 43.0 2011*5) 40.8 1906 6) 40.4 1979 7) 38.1 1974 8) 38.1 1900 9) 36.6 1905 10) 35.0 1977

COLUMBIA, MO Snowfall (in.)

Years: 1890-2011

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Climate Prediction Center

6-10 day temperature outlook

Issued: Feb 13, 2011 Valid: Feb 19-23, 2011

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Climate Prediction Center

6-10 day precipitationoutlook

Issued: Feb 13, 2011 Valid: Feb 19-23, 2011

Moderate to Strong La Niña continues…

Typical Winter Weather Anomalies and Atmospheric Circulation During Moderate to Strong La Niña

Issued: Jan 20, 2011 Climate Prediction Center

Temperature Outlook for

Feb-Mar-Apr

Issued: Jan 20, 2011 Climate Prediction Center

Precipitation Outlook for

Feb-Mar-Apr

agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htm

agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htm

Weather Resources on the Internet

River Information Resources for Missouri