slope trend seasonal10.79688 342.7578

alpha gamma delta 0.9150760.2 0.2 0.2 0.996661

1.012997 yt t 1.075267 quarter

318 1 10.55518 352.3462 0.912565 1380 2 11.29004 366.5757 1.004653 2358 3 10.31169 372.974 1.002368 3423 4 10.7159 385.3067 1.079779 4379 5 11.48751 399.8807 0.919608 1394 6 10.71979 407.5296 0.997083 2412 7 10.43089 416.8049 0.999589 3439 8 9.60405 423.1016 1.071338 4413 9 10.25999 435.9853 0.925143 1458 10 10.78378 448.8643 1.001737 2492 11 12.08596 466.1589 1.010758 3493 12 11.36305 474.6304 1.064811 4461 13 11.85538 488.455 0.928873 1468 14 10.53051 493.686 0.990984 2529 15 11.29663 508.0472 1.016855 3575 16 12.12296 523.4754 1.071534 4441 17 9.689784 523.4325 0.911601 1548 18 10.48433 537.0951 0.996848 2561 19 10.64921 548.4038 1.018077 3620 20 11.43147 562.9643 1.07749 4

523.6198 21583.9804 22608.0556 23655.8577 24

center of avg Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 yearly avg t

318 380 358 423 369.75 2.5379 394 412 439 406 6.5413 458 492 493 464 10.5461 468 529 575 508.25 14.5441 548 561 620 542.5 18.5

0.899437 1.042949 0.954289 1.096010.972282 0.983521 1.001462 1.0398030.922277 0.998688 1.04815 1.026666

slope estimated by average of first diff's of yearly averages

level estimated by subtracting 2.5*(slope est.) from first year's average

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

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forecastsyt

level estimated by subtracting 2.5*(slope est.) from first year's average

Sheet1