household access to modern energy & energy needs for decent living shonali pachauri 22 february,...
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Household Access to Modern Energy & Energy Needs for Decent Living
Shonali Pachauri
22 February, 2013
New Delhi
Outline
• Recent trends and current status of modern energy access
• Outlook for universal access to modern energy by 2030– No new policies scenario– Factors affecting household cooking choices– Costs and investments of access policies
• Impacts of modern energy access (health, GHGs)
• Broader benefits estimation• Estimating energy needs for decent living
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
20
40
60
80
100
$3800/capita
South Africa
$940/capita
India
$3000/capita
Brazil
China$780/capita
$1250/capita
Egypt
$5000/capita
USA
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
po
pu
lati
on
ele
ctr
ifie
dHistorical Household Electrification
Source: Pachauri et al., ‘Energy Access for Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1401-1458.
Current Status of Inequalities in Access to Electric Infrastructure
Source: Pachauri et al. (in preparation)
~600 million each unconnected
Recent Trends in Access to Modern Energy for Cooking & Solid Fuel Use
2000 20090
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Sub-Saharan Africa India
China Rest of Developing Asia
Indonesia Latin America & Caribbean
North Africa & Middle East
Po
pu
lati
on
in M
illio
ns
De
pe
nd
en
t o
n B
iom
as
s
Source: Pachauri et al., ‘Energy Access for Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1401-1458.
1E+10 1E+12 1E+140%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1965
2010
1965
2010
1965
2010
1965
2010
1875
2010
1875
2010
1875
2010
World
Developing countries
USA
Brazil
China
India
Ghana
Nigeria
GDP in 1990 International GK$
Biom
ass
shar
e in
fina
l ene
rgy
(%)
Complexities of Modeling Energy Choices for the Rural Poor• Most of the fuels are self-collected or non-
commercial i.e. not bought for cash on markets
• Most poor rural households have little disposable income and irregular cash inflows
• Little data exists on –– Time spent on energy collection– Distance from household to source of fuel– Frequency of trips made and amount collected– Availability and costs of more efficient alternatives– Discounting horizon of the poor
A New Decision Framework: Factors Affecting Cooking Fuel Choice
• Price of fuels • Costs of end-use appliances (cook stoves) –
discounted capital costs• “Inconvenience costs” of using traditional solid
fuels• Budget constraints
– income levels
• Time value of money– income dependent “implicit discount rates”
Source: Ekholm, Pachauri et al. 2010
Household Final Energy Use Across Region and Income – Ghana
MESSAGE-Access MODEL
• Technology detailed linear optimization (least-cost) model.
• Designed to analyze and assess future transitions in household energy use.
• Emphasis on consumer heterogeneity• Considers socio-economic, locational and
non-monetary drivers of energy use.
GEA Access Scenarios
Pacific Asia
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Almost universal grid electrification by 2030
Access to clean cooking for all by 2030
REGIONS TARGETS SCENARIOS
Minimal (65 kWh/HH/Year)
Full Access (420 kWh/HH/Year )
Fuel Subsidies Only
Microfinance Only
Combination of Fuel Subsidies and Microfinance
AFR
SAS
PAS
NAM
FSU
WEU
LAM
EEU
MEA
CPA
PAO
Access Regions
Regions of Focus
Without New Policies Access Goals by 2030 Unachievable
Rural Urban Rural Urban2005 2030 No new policies
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
98%
88%
92%85%
82%
31%
65%
10%
98%
53%
82%
13%
Sub-Saharan Africa Pacific Asia South Asia
Po
pu
lati
on
in B
illio
ns
2005 2030 No new policies
2030Univ. Acc.
0.0
300.0
600.0
900.0
1,200.0
1,500.0
1,800.0
2,100.0
9%31%
95%
43%77%
95%
47%
77%
95%
Sub-Saharan Africa Pacific Asia South Asia
Rura
l ele
ctrif
ied
popu
latio
n in
Bill
ion
Rural Electrification
Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.
Solid Fuel Dependence
Costs for Accelerating Access to Clean Cooking Services
Total costs for providing clean cooking services – $38 to 50 billion per year till 2030,
Source: Updated from GEA 2012 Pachauri et al. submitted
Additional Investments for Rural Grid Electrification
Total investments needed for additional generation, O&M of plants and rural grid expansion to reach electricity access target by 2030 –$15 billion per year.
Note: While decentralized renewable technologies may be more economic in certain sparsely populated rural regions, these are not assessed here due to substantial uncertainties in costs, due to the site specificity of these.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MESSAGE-Access
IMAGE-REMG
MESSAGE-Access
IMAGE-REMG
MESSAGE-Access
IMAGE-REMG
Sub-Saharan Africa Pacific Asia South Asia
Cu
mm
ula
tive
co
sts
20
10
-20
30
in
bill
ion
US$
Ad
diti
on
al G
en
era
tio
n C
apac
ity
by
20
30
in G
W
Additional generationcapacity by 2030
Additional costs(cumulative 2010-2030)
Source: Updated from GEA 2012 Pachauri et al. submitted
Effect of Climate & Access Policies on Electricity Capacity Changes in SSA
2005 2030Baseline
2030Universal Access
2030Baseline
2030Universal Access
No climate policy 2 degree target
0
150
300
450
Fuel Cell
Geothermal
Solar Thermal
SolarPV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
Cap
acity
in G
W
Source: GEA 2012; Bazilian et al. 2012
Changes in GHG Emissions Due to Access Policies by Region
South Asia Pacific Asia Sub-Saharan Africa0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.52005 2030 No New Policies 2030 Universal Access
GHG
Em
issi
ons
(Gt C
O2-
eq)
Net Impacts on emissions are negligible
Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.
2005 20300.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
ALRI in children <5 COPD in women>30 COPD in men>30Lung cancer in adults Ischaemic heart disease in adults
Mill
ions
of d
eath
sHealth Benefits of Access to Modern Cooking
Over 1 million lives saved annually
Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.
Multiple Benefits – Need for Estimation
Benefits of Saved Kerosene Subsidies in India
Benefits for Indian Non-Farm Enterprises (NFE)
NFE employ 25% of Indian workforce 50% of which are employed in rural areas
And 25% of which are women
With access: Probability of owning a NFE higher by 5%
Earnings likely to be higher by 18%
Regular and reliable supply crucial: Every hour of supply likely to raise earnings
by 0.5%
Source: Rao (forthcoming in Energy Policy)Source: Narula et al. 2012
72 million rural households (~43%) rely primarily on kerosene for lighting,
many more use it for backup
Current kerosene subsidies for rural lighting cost the government
>$1 billion per year
Universal electrification by 2030, could save $0.6-0.7 billion per year in avoided
kerosene subsidies for lighting alone
Decent Living Emissions: Developing an Energy-based Threshold
• Universal Normative Standards, Country-Specific Energy– Culture– Path dependency
• Maintenance (Annual) and Development (One-time) energy
• Baseline technology – equity ‘neutral’
70 yr Life Expectancy
Primary/SecondarySchooling
Paved Road Access
Motorized Transport
Gas/ BiogasifierStove
Balanced Nutrition2,200 cal/cap/day
Television
Refrigerator
Cell PhonePer Adult
In houseSanitation
50 l/cap/day
100 Lumens/m2
10m2/cap floor space
Comfort: 50% Humidity,18-27°C
China & India – Current Conditions
Primary Enrolment Secondary Enrolment
Life Expectancy (at birth)Hospital Beds/1000
Paved Road Access Permanent Roof
Electricity for lightingIn-house Sanitation
In-house Drinking WaterModern Cooking Stove
Own a TelevisionOwn a Telephone
Own a RefrigeratorOwn an A/C
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Decent Living Standards: China & India
Education
Health
Infrastructure
Household Amenities*
* Data for China reported is appliances per 100 households, not access penetration
Methodology
Normative Standard
Material Requirements
Embedded Energy Intensity
Energy
Universal Country-specific Country-specific
Economic Structure(Labor intensity)
Technology(Mechanization)
Culture(Recycling)
Climate (HDD, CDD)
Culture (Diet)
Geography (Pop Density)
Material FlowAnalysis
Life Cycle Analysis
Input/OutputAnalysis
Multiple Methods
GEA-Databasewww.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb
Interactive Policy Tools• Energy Access Tool:
ENACT→www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/ENACT
• Energy security, pollution/health, and climate change: ENE-MCA Tool - multiple objectives, synergies and trade-offs→www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/GeaMCA