household projections in scotland

General Register Office

forS C O T L A N D

information about Scotland's people

Household projections in Scotland

Esther RoughsedgeGeneral Register Office for Scotland

(GROS)

www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/household-estimates-projections/index.html


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Talk outline

• How we produce household projections

• What they show

• Potential ways to improve them


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Purpose of household projections

• Mainly used to inform local authority decisions about future housing and service need – Need to know projected number of households, and

type.

• GROS produces projections in a consistent way across the country.

• Local projections may be used in strategic plans, where this can be justified.


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How they are produced

• Produced every 2 years, to cover a 20-year period.

• Based on population projections;

• Subtract communal establishment population (from Census);

• Project household composition information from the 1991 + 2001 Censuses.


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Categories used

• 32 local authorities in Scotland• 7 household types:

• 10 age groups for the head of household:16-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+

1 adult (male) 1 adult (female)2 adults 2+ adults, 1+ children

1 adult, 1 child1 adult, 2+ children3+ adults


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Household composition

• ‘Head of household’ = first person on Census form.

• The number of heads of households = the number of households.

• Headship rates: the proportion of people who head a household within an age group, by household type and LA.


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Example of headship rates:Aberdeen, 2001: age 35-44

Household type Number Proportion

(= headship rate)

1 adult: male

1 adult: female

2 adults

1 adult, 1 child

1 adult, 2+ children

2+ adults, 1+ children

3+ adults

People who are not a head of household

Total number of people in age group

3,460

1,857

2,451

898

972

8,353

796

12,693

31,480

0.110

0.059

0.078

0.029

0.031

0.265

0.025

0.403

1.000


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Aberdeen: households with 2 adults Headship rate × household population = households

Age group Headship rate Household population

No. households

16-24

25-29

30-34

35-44

45-54

55-59

60-64

65-74

75-84

85+

0.101

0.183

0.138

0.078

0.152

0.265

0.315

0.324

0.258

0.162

25,931

14,883

15,051

30,397

27,366

12,291

9,498

17,027

10,901

2,541

2,623

2,728

2,071

2,378

4,147

3,252

2,987

5,522

2,812

411


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Advantages / disadvantages of this methodology

• Advantages– Robust– Fairly easy to understand and interpret– The data we require are available

• Disadvantages– Based on past trends– Reliant on Census data


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Differences from other parts of UK

• England and Wales:– Different household types (include marital status, but

not necessarily children).

– Incorporate Labour Force Survey results.

– Include age cohort effects.

– Projections produced every 4-6 yrs.

• Northern Ireland:– Similar to Scotland, but use household propensities

rather than headship rates – based on household size.


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Results of household projections for Scotland: 2004-2024


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Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2031

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

1 2004-based projection.

Projected 1


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Projected change in population by age group: 2004-2024

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+

Age group


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Population projections 2004-2024Average 1% increase in population; wide geographic variations

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Abe

rdee

n C

ity

Dun

dee

City

Eile

an S

iar

Inve

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de

She

tland

Isla

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Eas

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Wes

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Ren

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Nor

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Mid

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Scotland average


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Household projections 2004-2024Average 13% increase in households

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Abe

rdee

n C

ity

Dun

dee

City

Eile

an S

iar

Inve

rcly

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She

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Isla

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Eas

t Dun

bart

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Wes

t Dun

bart

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Ren

frew

shire

Nor

th A

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ire

Gla

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City

Ang

us

Eas

t Ayr

shire

Sou

th A

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Mid

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ian

Dum

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Gal

low

ay

Ork

ney

Isla

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Cla

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anna

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Nor

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Eas

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Hig

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Scotland average


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Household type, 2004 & 2024: Average household size is getting smaller

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1 adult 2 adults 1 adult withchild(ren)

2+ adults withchild(ren)

3+ adults

2004

2024


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Age of head of household, 2004 & 2024:Greatest increase in older age groups

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+

Age of head of household

2004

2024


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Percentage of people living alone, 2024: 1 in 4 will live alone

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

16-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Age group

MalesFemales


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Summary of household projections results, 2004-2024

• Overall number of households up 13%, despite smaller change in population.

• Average household size decreasing.• More people living alone.• Ageing population – more households with

older people, fewer households with children.

• Large geographical variations.


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Media coverage

• ‘Lonely future for Scots as one-person families soar’ - Scotsman

• ‘1 in 4 will live alone’ - Herald

• ‘City to grow a quarter by 2024’ - Edinburgh Evening News

• ‘Church says Labour policies to blame for death of the family’ - Mail


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Notes on household projections

• Projections are based on past trends.• They don’t take account of future policy

initiatives / planned housing developments (or bird flu).

• There is some demand to include additional information, e.g., economic predictions, or plans for future housing developments. But it would be difficult to do this consistently.


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Potential ways to improve our household projections


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Incorporate survey results

• Information on household type is based on last 2 Censuses.

• Household estimates constrain the figures – But no information on household type

• Could include results of surveys (e.g., Scottish Household Survey, Labour Force Survey) to update this at national level.


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Different geographic areas

• Current household projections are for: – Councils

– Structure plan areas

• Changes to planning system need projections for ‘city regions’ and national parks.

Require small area households estimates, to form ‘building blocks’ for projections for different areas.


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Other potential improvements

• Update communal establishment information.

• Review the household types and age groups used.

• Produce variant projections?


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Future PhD

• Ashley McCormick will start a PhD supervised by Paul Williamson on incorporating social trends into household projections.

• Combine headship rates at sub-national level with dynamic micro-simulation to project household and family formation.

• Experiment with different headship definitions.


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Summary: potential improvements

• Incorporate survey results to update information on household composition.

• Produce projections for different areas.• Update communal establishment

information.• Variant projections. • Potential alternatives to projections

methodology and headship definitions.


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Any questions?

household projections in scotland

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