housing and economic outlook david f. seiders chief economist october 25, 2006
TRANSCRIPT
Housing and Economic Outlook
David F. SeidersChief Economist
October 25, 2006
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
22
Single-Family Building Permits
(000s, SAAR)(000s, SAAR)
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
33
NAR’s Composite Housing Affordability Index
A value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactlyenough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home.
80
100
120
140
160
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
44
4500
5500
6500
7500
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Existing Home Sales(Single-Family and Condo)
(000s, SAAR, 3 Month Moving Average)
55
Single-Family Inventory(New and Existing)
((000s, SAAR, 3 Month Moving Average)000s, SAAR, 3 Month Moving Average)
66
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Existing Condo/Co-op Inventory
(000s, 3 Month Moving Average)
77
100
200
300
400
500
600
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
2%
4%
6%
8%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Sales Cancellation Rate(New Homes)
(%, 3 Month Moving Avg., 30 Companies)
88
Existing Home Prices(Single-Family and Condo)
(Median, Yr-Yr % Change, 3 Month Moving Average)
99
-2
2
6
10
14
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Fed Funds Rate TargetPercent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
1010
Home Mortgage RatesPercent
Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Adjustable Rate Mortgages
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
1111
(Overall Index -- Year-to-Year % Chg.)
House Price Index:Nominal Versus Real
Nominal
Real
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
1212
Single-Family Housing Starts(Thousands of Units, SAAR)
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
1313
Multifamily Housing Starts(Thousands of Units, SAAR)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
1414
Manufactured Home Shipments(Thousands of Units, SAAR)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
1515
Residential Remodeling
0
50
100
150
200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Improvements Main/Repairs
(Billions $2000)
1616
Residential Fixed Investment(Billions 2000 $, SAAR)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
1717