housing trends report quarter 3,...

HOUSING TRENDS REPORT

QUARTER 3, 2019

HOUSING TRENDS REPORT

The Housing Trends Report (HTR) measures

prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the

availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their

markets.

All data are derived from national polls of

representative samples of American adults

conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult. This report

is released quarterly to track changes in buyers’

perceptions over time.

Generation definitions:

o Gen Z: Born 1997 to 2001.

o Millennial: Born 1981 to 1996.

o Gen X: Born 1965 to 1980.

o Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964.

Methodology:

The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to

approximate a target sample of adults based on age, educational

attainment, gender, race, and region. In qtr1’19, weights were

refined to better match the general US population and provide more

consistent distributions across demographic groups over time. These

new weights were applied retroactively to the entire series in order to

maintain comparability. In qtr3’19, Gen Z was incorporated into the

generational analysis for the first time.

Results are not yet seasonally adjusted due to the short-time horizon

of the series; therefore, only year-over-year comparisons are

statistically valid.

PLANNING TO BUY A HOME WITHIN 12

MONTHS

12% of respondents in Qtr3’19 are prospective home buyers

(they are planning to buy a home within 12 months), essentially

unchanged from 13% a year earlier.

BY GENERATION: 20% of Millennials have plans for a home

purchase within 12 months, followed by Gen X (12%), Gen Z

(11%), and Boomers (only 6%).

BY REGION: 11% of respondents in the Northeast and Midwest

are prospective home buyers, compared to 13% in the South and

12% in the West.

1ST-TIME HOME BUYERS

24%

17%14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12%

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18 Qtr3'18 Qtr4'18 Qtr1'19 Qtr2'19 Qtr3'19

11%

20%

12%

6%

Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers

11% 11%

13%12%

Northeast Midwest South West

Remaining of this report is based entirely on prospective home buyers, i.e. those planning to buy a home within the next 12 months.

1ST-TIME HOME BUYERS

60% of prospective home buyers in Qtr3’19 are first-time

buyers. A year earlier, the share was a similar 61%.

BY GENERATION: 3 of every 4 Gen Z and Millennial prospective

buyers are first-timers, compared to half of Gen X and a quarter

of Boomer buyers.

BY REGION: More than half of prospective buyers in every region

are buying a home for the first time, led by the Northeast (64%).

72%

54%63% 61%

53%60% 58% 60%


76% 75%

50%

24%


64%

54%

60% 59%


NEW OR EXISTING HOME?

41% of buyers in Qtr3’19 are looking to buy an existing home,

18% a new home, and 41% would buy either type.

By GENERATION: 27% of Gen Z prospective buyers want a new

home (the most of any generation), but 46% have no strong

preference between new or existing. More than one-third of all

generations would buy either type of home.

BY REGION: More than one-third of prospective buyers in every

region would buy either new or existing, especially in the South

(45%). Buyers in the West are the most likely to prefer a new

home (23%).

41% 41%

18%

Existing home Either New or Existing New home

27%20% 16% 14%

46% 42% 42%34%


New Either New or Existing

18% 14% 17%23%

35% 36%45% 43%


New Either New or Existing

AVAILABILITY EXPECTATIONS

21% of buyers in Qtr3’19 expect their house search to get easier

in the months ahead; just slightly ahead of the 19% who had that

expectation a year earlier.

68% think the search will get harder or stay about the same

(slightly below the 71% with those expectations a year earlier).

BY GENERATION: Expectations that finding the right home will

become harder or stay about the same increase with age: 64%

of Gen Z buyers to 74% of Boomers.

BY REGION: At least two-thirds of buyers in every region expect

their search for a home to get harder or stay the same in the

near future, especially those in the West (72%).

34%

16% 21% 19% 19%22% 20% 21%

59%

73%68% 71% 72%

67% 67% 68%


Easier Harder / About the same

64% 66% 67%74%


66%68%

66%

72%


CHANGES IN INVENTORY

29% of buyers in Qtr3’19 report seeing more homes for-sale*

(i.e. an improvement in inventory) than three months earlier,

essentially unchanged from a year earlier (30%).

Most buyers (59%), however, report seeing fewer/same number

of homes for- sale* – about the same as a year earlier (60%).

BY GENERATION: The share of buyers who report more homes

available for-sale in Qtr3’19 declines with age: from 41% of Gen

Z to 18% of Boomers.

BY REGION: 36% of buyers in the West report seeing more

homes for-sale, compared to 30% in the Northeast, 27% in the

South, and 23% in the Midwest.

* Homes with buyer’s desired features and price point.

38%

26% 29% 30% 27% 30% 27% 29%

53%63% 61% 60%

64%60% 59% 59%


More homes Fewer or about the same homes

41% 32% 28%18%


30%23% 27% 36%


AFFORDABILITY EXPECTATIONS

80% of buyers in Qtr3’19 can afford fewer than half the homes

available for-sale in their markets, essentially the same as a year

earlier (79%).

Only 20% can afford the majority of homes available, about

unchanged from a year earlier (21%).

BY GENERATION: Over 80% of Gen Z and Millennial buyers can

afford fewer than half the homes for sale in their markets. The

share exceeds 75% for Gen X and Boomer buyers.

BY REGION: More than 3 out of 4 buyers in every region of the

country say they can afford under half of the homes available

for sale in their areas.

75%82% 76% 79% 76% 78% 80% 80%

25%18%

24% 21% 23% 22% 20% 20%


Can afford < 50% of homes for-sale

Can afford >= 50% of the homes for-sale

81% 84% 76% 77%


79%77%

81%84%


BEYOND JUST PLANNING

Of the 12% of adults in Qtr3’19 planning a home purchase in the

next year, 44% are already actively engaged in looking for a

home to buy (and not just merely planning it). That share is lower

than a year earlier (47%).

BY GENERATION: Over 40% of prospective buyers of all

generations are already actively looking for a home to buy.

BY REGION: Prospective buyers in the Northeast are the most

likely to already be actively searching for a home (50%), followed

by those in the West (45%).

46% 50% 47%54%

46% 41% 44%

Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18 Qtr3'18 Qtr4'18 Qtr1'19 Qtr2'19 Qtr3'19

43% 45% 42% 44%


50%40% 43% 45%


Remaining set of findings are based solely on responses from buyers who are already actively engaged in trying to find a home (i.e. active

buyers)

TIME SPENT SEARCHING FOR A HOME

In Qtr3’19, buyers actively engaged in the process of buying a

home are more likely to have spent at least 3 months searching

(58%) than a year earlier (55%).

BY GENERATION: 71% of actively-engaged Gen Z buyers have

been looking for 3+ months for a home to buy. The share

exceeds 50% for other generations.

BY REGION: 65% of active buyers in the Northeast have been

trying to find a home for at least three months, followed by 58%

in the Midwest, 56% in the South, and 53% in the West.

50% 46% 45%

42%

46% 45%42%

50%54% 55%

58%

53%55%

58%


< 3 months 3 months or more

71%56% 61% 51%


65% 58% 56% 53%


TOP REASONS BUYERS ACTIVE FOR 3+

MONTHS HAVE NOT BEEN SUCCESSFUL

In Qtr3’19, the top reason long-time searchers hadn’t pulled the

trigger was the inability to find an affordable home (45%). A year

earlier, more than half cited price as the main reason (51%).

BY GENERATION: 49% of Millennials and Boomers looking for a

home for 3+ months haven’t been successful because of high

home prices.

BY REGION: 51% of active home buyers (for 3+months) in the

South and 46% in the West have failed to buy a home because

of a shortage of affordable homes.


Can't find a home at a price I can afford

Can't find home with features I want

Can't find a home in the neigborhood I want

45%

32%

30%

51%

32%49% 40% 49%


39% 39% 51% 46%


NEXT STEPS IF STILL UNABLE TO FIND

HOME IN MONTHS AHEAD

If still unable to find a home in the next few months, the next step

for most long-time searchers is to continue looking for the ‘right’

home in the same preferred location (52%). The next step for 35%

is to expand their search area and for 16% is to accept a

smaller/older home. Only 15% will give up looking.

The share that will give up trying to buy a home was lower in

Qtr3’19 (15%) than a year earlier (18%).

BY GENERATION & REGION: Fewer than 20% of any generation

or region of the country will give up trying to find a home.

15%

9%

16%

35%

52%

Give up trying to find a home until

next year or later

Buy a more expensive home than

origianlly intended

Accept a smaller/older home than

originally intended

Expand my search area

Continue looking until the ‘right’

home opens up in a preferred location

13%16% 18% 16% 14% 16% 15%


12%17%

12% 14%

Gen Z Millenials Gen X Boomers

12% 14% 15% 17%


POLL DESIGN

The Housing Trends Report is based on quarterly polls conducted

for NAHB by the research firm Morning Consult.

Polls are based on a national sample of adults selected to

proportionately represent the US adult population in terms of

age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, and education. Further

weights are applied to the final set of respondents to ensure

proper representation across these demographic variables.

Table below shows sample size and dates of data collection.

Sample

size

Collection

Period

Qtr4’17 2,800 November 16-19, 2017

Qtr1’18 11,674 March 28 – April 1, 2018

Qtr2’18 15,412 June 26 – July 8, 2018

Qtr3’18 20,051 September 25 – October 8, 2018

Qtr4’18 16,891 December 17 – January 9, 2019

Qtr1’19 15,401 March 18 – March 29, 2019

Qtr2’19 17,521 June 17 – June 27, 2019

Qtr3’19 17,601 September 9 – 22, 2019

housing trends report quarter 3,...

Documents