how early is early? early initiation of risk behaviors among inner city adolescents and its impact...

How Early Is Early?Early Initiation of Risk Behaviors among Inner City Adolescents and Its Impact on

Later Behavioral Trajectories

John M. Bolland

Bradley E. Lian

Support

1. NICHD (HD 30060)

2. CSAT/SAMHSA (TI 13340)

3. NIDA (DA 017428)

4. CDC (CE 000191)

5. Mobile, Alabama Housing Board

6. City of Mobile, Alabama

7. City of Prichard, Alabama

Mobile Youth Survey

– Begun in 1998; 11 waves of data– Low income, African American neighborhoods

• 1990 poverty rate = 73%• 1990 median household income = $5,190

– Multiple cohort, longitudinal study of adolescent risk

– Adolescents aged 9.75 - 18.25

MYS Data1998-2005

N = 7,085

18,360 total interviews

1,774 – 2,635 annual interviews

1,187 respondents with 5+ waves of data

Response rate = .73 - .78

Followup rate = .82

The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings

Prevalence × Age

Risk Behavior Relative Risk Age Period Data

Alcohol consumption 1.54 - 2.00 12-14 lifetime Add HealthAlcohol consumption .85 16-18 30 days YRBSMarijuana use 2.11 - 2.81 12-14 lifetime Add HealthMarijuana use 1.01 16-18 30 days YRBSSexual intercourse 2.24 - 3.27 12-14 lifetime Add HealthSexual intercourse 1.25 16-18 30 days YRBS

The Mobile Youth Survey: Findings

Prevalence × Age

Risk Behavior Relative Risk Age Period Data

Alcohol consumption 1.54 - 2.00 12-14 lifetime Add HealthAlcohol consumption .85 16-18 30 days YRBSMarijuana use 2.11 - 2.81 12-14 lifetime Add HealthMarijuana use 1.01 16-18 30 days YRBSSexual intercourse 2.24 - 3.27 12-14 lifetime Add HealthSexual intercourse 1.25 16-18 30 days YRBS

Weapon carrying 1.39 16-18 30 days YRBSGun carrying 1.86 16-18 30 days YRBSPulling a weapon 5.32 - 6.95 12-18 lifetime Add HealthWeapon use 12.80 - 23.66 12-18 lifetime Add Health

MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories

Yij = [β00 + β10ageij] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij]

Where μ0j ≈ N(0, τ), rij ≈ N(0, σ2)

MYS Data: Developmental and Behavioral Trajectories

Yij = [β00 + β10ageij] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij]

Yij = [β00 + β10ageij + β01icij + β11(icij × ageij)] + [μ0j + μ1jageij + rij]

Where μ0j ≈ N(0, τ), rij ≈ N(0, σ2)

Alcohol Use

b se

Intercept 1.38 .03

Age (lin) .26 .01

Age (quad) .01 .003

Gender -.13 .04

Age (lin) × Gender -.13 .01

Age (quad) × Gender -.03 .004

Alcohol Use: Frequency and Recency

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Age

Alc

oh

ol

Us

e

male female

Household Instability:Mother

Mother Figure

Birth Mother 67.0% - 74.7%

Grandmother 12.0% - 16.4%

No One 1.4% - 3.2%

Annual Change 25.0% – 34.8%

Household Instability:Father

Father Figure Biological Father 44.8% - 47.7%

Stepfather 14.4% - 16.4% Grandfather 6.7% - 8.5%

No One 10.9% - 13.6%

Annual Change 43.9% – 49.8%

Alcohol Use

b se

No father figure (NFF) .27 .16

Early initiation (EI) .38 .10

Age (lin) × NFF .36 .13

Age (quad) × NFF .08 .03

Age (lin) × EI .21 .06

Age (quad) × EI .13 .02

Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.51 .19

Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.17 .05


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Alc

oh

ol

Us

e

father - no early initiation father - early initiationno father - no early initiation no father - early initiation

Alcohol Use

b se b se

No father figure (NFF) .27 .16 .29 .17

Early initiation (EI) .38 .10 .38 .10

Age (lin) × NFF .36 .13 .37 .13

Age (quad) × NFF .08 .03 .07 .03

Age (lin) × EI .21 .06 .20 .07

Age (quad) × EI .13 .02 .13 .02

Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.51 .19 -.52 .19

Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.17 .05 -.17 .05

NFF* .10 .07

Alcohol Use

b se

Biological father (BFF) -.27 .09


Age (lin) × BFF -.03 .07

Age (quad) × BFF .01 .02

Age (lin) × EI .01 .06

Age (quad) × EI .07 .02

Age (lin) × BFF × EI .31 .11

Age (quad) × BFF × EI .08 .03


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Alc

oh

ol

Us

e

non-biological father - no early initiation non-biological father - early initiationbiological father - no early initiation biological father - early initiation

Alcohol Use

b se

Biological father (BFF) -.27 .09 -.14 .10

Early initiation (EI) .43 .10 .32 .10

Age (lin) × BFF -.03 .07 -.04 .08

Age (quad) × BFF .01 .02 .005 .02

Age (lin) × EI .01 .06 .04 .10

Age (quad) × EI .07 .02 .10 .03

Age (lin) × BFF × EI .31 .11 .16 .12

Age (quad) × BFF × EI .08 .03 .03 .03

BFF* -.11 .05

Marijuana Use

b se

Intercept 1.13 .03

Age (lin) .30 .01

Age (quad) .02 .002

Gender -.30 .04



Marijuana Use: Frequency and Recency

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Age

Ma

riju

an

a U

se

male female

Marijuana Use

b se



Age (lin) × NFF .24 .11


Age (lin) × EI .20 .08

Age (quad) × EI .05 .02

Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.17 .29



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Mar

iju

ana

Use


Marijuana Use

b se b seNo father figure (NFF) .13 .18 .15 .18

Early initiation (EI) .43 .14 .44 .14Age (lin) × NFF .24 .11 .23 .12Age (quad) × NFF .06 .03 .05 .03Age (lin) × EI .20 .08 .20 .08Age (quad) × EI .05 .02 .05 .02Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.17 .29 -.04 .30Age (quad) × NFF × EI -.04 .08 -.004 .08NFF* .13 .06

Marijuana Use

b se



Age (lin) × BFF .04 .06


Age (lin) × EI .29 .11

Age (quad) × EI .07 .03

Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.19 .13

Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.05 .04


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Ma

riju

an

a U

se


Marijuana Use

b se b seBiological father (BFF) -.17 .10 -.12 .10Early initiation (EI) .43 .13 .41 .14Age (lin) × BFF .04 .06 .03 .07Age (quad) × BFF .02 .01 .02 .02Age (lin) × EI .29 .11 .46 .12Age (quad) × EI .07 .03 .12 .03

Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.19 .13 -.28 .14Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.05 .04 -.08 .04BFF* -.11 .04


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Ma

riju

an

a U

se


Fighting

b se

Intercept 2.02 .03

Age (lin) -.07 .01

Age (quad) .003 .002

Gender -.41 .04



Fighting: Frequency and Recency

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Age

Fig

hti

ng

male female


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Fig

hti

ng



0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Fig

hti

ng


Weapon Carrying

b se

Intercept 1.87 .04

Age (lin) .15 .01

Age (quad) -.01 .004

Gender -.46 .06



Weapon Carrying: Frequency and Recency

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Age

We

ap

on

Ca

rry

ing

male female

Weapon Carrying

b se



Age (lin) × NFF .002 .20

Age (quad) × NFF -.04 .05

Age (lin) × EI .34 .10

Age (quad) × EI .22 .03

Age (lin) × NFF × EI .76 .31

Age (quad) × NFF × EI .18 .09

Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Ca

rry

ing

a W

ea

po

n


Weapon Carrying

b se


Early initiation (EA) .57 .14

Age (lin) × BFF .10 .12


Age (lin) × EA .63 .14

Age (quad) × EA .32 .04

Age (lin) × BFF × EA -.40 .31

Age (quad) × BFF × EA -.14 .05

Carrying a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Ca

rry

ing

a W

ea

po

n


Weapon Brandishment

b se

Intercept .58 .02

Age (lin) .08 .01

Gender -.14 .03


Weapon Brandishment: Frequency and Recency

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Age

We

ap

on

Bra

nd

ish

me

nt

male female

Weapon Brandishment

b se



Age (lin) × NFF .05 .09

Age (quad) × NFF -.00 .02

Age (lin) × EI .18 .06

Age (quad) × EI .11 .02

Age (lin) × NFF × EI .57 .21

Age (quad) × NFF × EI .11 .06

Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Bra

nd

ish

ing

a W

ea

po

n


Weapon Carrying

b se



Age (lin) × BFF .05 .05


Age (lin) × EI .18 .09

Age (quad) × EI .11 .02

Age (lin) × BFF × EI .04 .10

Age (quad) × BFF × EI .002 .03

Brandishing a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Bra

nd

ish

ing

a W

ea

po

n


Weapon Use

b se

Intercept .36 .01

Age (lin) .05 .004

Age (quad) -.00 .001

Gender -.15 .02



Weapon Use: Frequency and Recency

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Age

We

ap

on

Us

e

male female

Weapon Use

b se



Age (lin) × NFF .07 .04


Age (lin) × EI .22 .03

Age (quad) × EI .10 .01

Age (lin) × NFF × EI -.04 .15


Using a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Us

ing

a W

ea

po

n


Weapon Use

b se



Age (lin) × BFF -.01 .03


Age (lin) × EI .30 .05

Age (quad) × EI .14 .02

Age (lin) × BFF × EI -.15 .06

Age (quad) × BFF × EI -.06 .02

Using a Weapon: Frequency and Recency

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

12 13 14 15 16

Age

Us

ing

a W

ea

po

n


The Challenges of Conditional Growth Curve Modeling

2,724 MYS respondents who were

• 9,10, or 11 at time of first observation; and

• indicated whether they had used alcohol

334 interviewed when they were 16

• 193 father figure + no early use

• 108 father figure + early use

• 22 no father figure + no early use

• 11 no father figure + early use

how early is early? early initiation of risk behaviors among inner city adolescents and its impact...

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