How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland?

BSPS Conference September 2007

Dr David MarshallNISRA

How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland?

How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland?

Outline what we do know

&

Data in population estimates

UN Definition: Usually resident long-term migrant

“A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.” UN (1998)

- In use across European Union

- “Usually resident” population

A8: Eastern European countries that joined European Union in May 2004

Czech Republic, Estonia, HungaryLatvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia

1. In and out-migration sources

2. Migration estimates for NI

3. Conclusions

Births to Mothers Born outside Northern Ireland

- Registering births in NI, mother supplies information on her country of birth

- New NI mothers born outside the UK & Ireland – 700 in 2001 up to 1,450 in 2006 (projected 1,700 in 2007)

- A8 mothers – 2 births in 1997 – 650 (projected) births in 2007

Mother’s Country of Birth

Registration Year

2001 … 2004 2005 20062007 (Jan-

Jun)

Northern Ireland 18,994 … 19,059 19,039 19,611 10,166

Rest of UK 1,553 … 1,404 1,460 1,475 731

Republic of Ireland 724 … 689 706 736 375

A8 Countries 12 … 34 110 390 321

Other Countries / Unknown 679 … 1,132 1013 1,060 545

All Births 21,962 …  22,318 22,328 23,272 12,138

Births registered in NI

Annual School Census

– Annual School Census - English as an additional language (October 2006)

– 1.5% or nearly 2,400 “primary” school children have English as an additional language

– A8 languages: c0.7% - 1,100 “primary” school-children (Polish most popular)

– School Census not a measure of migration

Worker Registration Scheme

– Set up by UK Government (Home Office)

– A8 nationals required to register

– May 2004 - March 2007

UK: 605k people

NI: 24k (3.9%)

– WRS: 50% in temporary employment (short-term)

– Covers working age population - no need to deregister

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

May –Jun

2004

Jul –Sep2004

Oct –Dec2004

Jan –Mar2005

Apr –Jun2005

Jul –Sep2005

Oct –Dec2005

Jan –Mar2006

Apr –Jun2006

Jul –Sep2006

Oct –Dec2006

Jan –Mar2007

Year and Quarter of Registration

NI W

RS

Reg

istr

atio

ns

2005 Total: 8,845

2004 (part) Total: 3,655

2006 Total: 8,955

NI WRS Registrations by quarter (May 2004 - March 2007)

NI WRS Registrations by local authority of employment per 1,000 resident population (May 2004 – March 2006)

NI Worker Registration Scheme

– Numerically high in Belfast, Mid-Ulster

– Mid-Ulster rate effect

– Lithuanian effect in Northern Ireland (20% of NI registrations – 10% in UK )

New registrations with a family doctor – health cards

- Central Services Agency record (re)registrations with family doctors

- Form available in 7 languages (English, Portuguese, Polish, Latvian, Lithuanian, Russian and Czech)

- Non-UK registrations rising from 7,200 in 2003 to 13,600 in 2005 and again to 18,000 in 2006

- Numerically highest in Belfast, Mid-Ulster LGDs

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan -M ar 2003

Jul -Se p 2003

Jan -M ar 2004

Jul -Se p 2004

Jan -M ar 2005

Jul -Se p 2005

Jan -M ar 2006

Jul -Se p 2006

Year and Quarter of Application

New

Hea

lth C

ard

Reg

istr

atio

ns

from

out

side

UK

2003 Total: 7,230 2004 Total: 8,060

2005 Total: 13,607

2006 Total: 18,118

New Health Card Registrations from outside UK by quarter of application (2003 - 2006)

Deregistrations from a family doctor list

- Central Services Agency record deregistration from family doctor list

- Deregistrations rising from 4,400 in 2003 to 5,600 in 2006

- Incomplete data (evidence from 1990s around 1/3 of people are not deregistered)

UN Definition: Usually resident long-term migrant

“A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.”

Migration estimates for NI

Country of Birth Number Percentage

Northern Ireland 1,534,268 91.0%

England 61,609 3.7%

Scotland 16,772 1.0%

Wales 3,008 0.2%

Republic of Ireland 39,051 2.3%

Other EU countries 10,355 0.6%

Elsewhere 20,204 1.2%

All persons 1,685,267 100.0%

2001 Census “Country of Birth”

NI methodology to estimate migration

IPS not used in NI population estimates- NI ports not included- Ireland / Northern Ireland- Small sample size for NI

Migration into NI: GP registrations– Small adjustment made for young adult males

Migration out of NI: – GP registrations in GB (UK figures agreed) – CSO Ireland Household Survey for RoI– GP deregistrations for elsewhere

– Elsewhere figures adjusted for incompleteness and young adult males

– 1970s/1980s - NI exporter of people (“The Troubles”)

– 1990s – migration in balance • 20,000 in (13,000 from GB, 2,000 RoI, 5,000 Rest

of World)• 20,000 out (13,000 to GB, 7,000 Rest of World)

– Post- 2001 Increasing levels of migration

Summary of NI picture

Background: Estimates of Net Migration in Northern Ireland (1973/4-2005/6)

-14,000

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,00019

73-1

974

1977

-197

8

1981

-198

2

1985

-198

6

1989

-199

0

1993

-199

4

1997

-199

8

2001

-200

2

2005

-200

6

Year

Net

Mig

ratio

n Le

vel

Population Gain

Population Loss

EU Expansion

The “Troubles”

Combined 2005 Survey Results

Combined 2006 Survey Results

Households

Households surveyed 2,276 3,727

No. where someone left in last year 139 191

Perc. 6% 5%

People

Number of people who left 167 228

Went elsewhere in Northern Ireland 130 169

Went to Great Britain 19 33

Went to Republic of Ireland 7 8

Went to outside UK and Ireland/Unknown 11 18

Household Survey: “Has anyone left your household?”

Out-migration(Partial)

Research report

Data published in two NISRA reports July 2006 and July 2007

see www.nisra.gov.uk/demography

Selection of some of the research/sources outlined – NINos, WP data ….

Other research

- National Insurance Numbers falling out of use

- Proposed survey of migrants (attitudes/intentions etc…)

Conclusion

- NI migration levels have increased

- EU expansion (big impact)

- 2006 larger migration estimates

- New developments on out-migration

How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland?

BSPS Conference September 2007

Dr David MarshallNISRA