how to cherry pick climate data - montana awra€¦ · different from calendar time. ... elk...
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HOW TO CHERRY‐PICK CLIMATE DATA
ByPhil Farnes
Snowcap Hydrology
EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• 1970’S ‐ RETURN OF LITTLE ICE AGE• 1990’S ‐ GLOBAL WARMING• 2000’S ‐ CLIMATE CHANGE• 2010’S ‐ ??
EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE
GREAT VARIABILITY
• SEASONAL AND ANNUAL PRECIPITATION ‐40 TO 160 % AVERAGE – MORE FOR MONTHLY
• TEMPERATURE ‐ 140 TO 150 OF VARIATION (NOAA REFERS TO NORMAL RATHER THAN AVERAGE)
• ANNUAL AND SEASONAL RUNOFF ‐ 50 TO 150 % AVERAGE
• MOUNTAINS DIFFERENT FROM VALLEYS• PHENOLOGICAL OR HYDROLOGIC TIME DIFFERENT FROM CALENDAR TIME
PAST 120 YEARS‐MONTANA
• 1890’s –1930’s BECOMING WARMER AND DRIER
• 1930’S‐1970’S BECOMING COOLER AND WETTER
• 1970’S‐2010’s BECOMING WARMER AND DRIER
• 2011 COOL AND WET SPRING, HEAVY SNOWPACK, LATE MELT, LARGE RUNOFF
• 2012 MAY BE SIMILAR TO 2011
CORRELATION
• HIGH R2 MEANS THE EXISTING DATA CORRELATES WELL
• IT DOES NOT MEAN IT DOES WELL IN PREDICTING THE FUTURE
• DON’T MAKE LONG RANGE PROJECTIONS UNLESS YOU ARE CLOSE TO RETIREMENT
• ONLY ALUDE TO WHAT MIGHT HAPPPEN IF TREND CONTINUES
US SENATOR’S SALARY vs CO2
y = 3.7351x - 1116.9R² = 0.9501
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
300 320 340 360 380 400
Sena
tors
Sal
ary
X .0
02
CO 2
CO 2 vs Senators Salary 1888-2011
ELK
Northern Range Elk Numbers 1916-1969
010000200003000040000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Water Year
Elk
Cou
nt
NO ELK ON NORTHERN RANGE BY 1988?
ELK NUMBERS AFTER WOLVESELK NUMBERS AFTER WOLVES
WOLVES WILL ELIMINATE ELK ON NORTHERN RANGE BY 2017?
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Elk
Cou
nt
Water Year
Northern Range Elk Numbers 1994-2011
ALL OF THE ELK DATA
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Elk
Cou
nt
Water Year
Northern Range Elk Numbers1892-2011
1892-1994
1995-2011
MY THEORY
60
70
80
90
100
110
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Apr
1 S
WE
5-yr
avg
Water Year
Gallatin River Drainage SWE 1939-1975
SWE
2030405060708090
100110120
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Ann
ual R
O/1
0000
AF;
Apr
1 S
WE,
inch
es
Water Year
Gallatin River Drainage 1939-1975
SWE-5
Gall
THE REAL STORY
20
40
60
80
100
120
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Ann
ual
RO
/100
00;
Apr
1 SW
E, in
ches
Water Year
Gallatin River Drainage 1890-1975
SWE-5 1939-1975
Gall 1939-1975
Gall 1890-1938
THE REST OF THE STORY
20
40
60
80
100
120
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Ann
ual R
O/1
0000
;A
pr 1
SW
E, in
.
Water Year
Gallatin River Drainage 1890-2011(5-yr moving average plotted on mid-year)
SWE-5 1939-1975
SWE-5 1976-2011
Gall 1839-1975
Gall 1976-2011
Gall 1890-1938
TEMPERATURE
TEMPERATURE vs CO2
y = 0.0282x + 30.592R² = 0.2238
34
36
38
40
42
44
300 320 340 360 380 400
Ann
ual A
vg T
emps
F
Annual CO2
Mammoth Temperatures vs CO2 1888-2011
YELLOWSTONE LAKE
391953920039205392103921539220392253923039235392403924539250
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Dat
e
Water Year
Yellowstone Lake Melt-Out 1922-2011
39195
39200
39205
39210
39215
39220
39225
39230
39235
39240
39245
39250
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Dat
e
Water Year
Yellowstone Lake Melt-Out 1922-2011
YELLOWSTONE LAKE
5/3
5/8
5/13
5/18
5/23
5/28
6/2
6/7
6/12
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Dat
e
Water Year
Yellowstone Lake Melt-Out 1970-2007
12 Days earlier
PRECIPITATION
PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Prec
ipita
tion,
inch
es
Month
West Side Bitterroot Precipitation Distribution1971-2000 Average
Stevi
Ham
Darby
Sula
12 Mi
Twin
Sadd
OctSep
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK 90 vs 78 YEARS
+ 3 %
‐ 8 %
20406080
100120140160180200
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Sum
3 M
ay 1
SW
E, in
ches
Water Year
Sum Three St. Mary Snow Courses 1922-20115-year moving average plotted on mid-year
(Iceberg Lake, Mt. Allen, Piegan Pass)
85.6
Yearly
Linear (85.6)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Sum
3 M
ay 1
SW
E, in
ches
Water Year
Sum 3 St. Mary Snow Courses 1934-20115-year moving average plotted on mid-year
(Iceberg Lake, Mt. Allen, Piegan Pass)
Sum 3
Linear (Sum 3)
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK
‐ 31%
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
May
1 S
WE,
inch
es
Water Year
Sum 3 St. Mary Snow Courses 1970-20115-year moving average plotted on mid-year
(Iceberg Lake, Mt. Allen, Piegan Pass)
SWE
0
20
40
60
80
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Max
SW
E
Water Year
Flattop Mtn Max SWE 1970-2011
6/76/176/277/7
7/177/278/6
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Day
Mel
t-Out
Water Year
Flattop Mtn Day of Melt-Out1970-2011
FIRES SINCE 1920
05
10152025303540
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Year
Average Annual Acres Burned US 1920-2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mill
ion
Acr
es
Year
Average Annual Acres Burned US 1920-2010
Acres Burned in US
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Millions Acres
Year
Average Annual Acres Burned US 1970‐2010
TCEF FIRES
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Ann
ual R
unof
f, cm
X 1
06
Water Year
Estimated Average Annual Runoff TCEF Based on Burn Area and CT 1590-2007
RO
Max
Min
All trees removed
All Mature LPP Forest
CONCLUSION• ONLY USE PART OF THE RECORD FOR ANALYSIS • USE THE EXCUSE THAT OLDER RECORDS ARE NO GOOD
• ANOTHER EXCUSE IS THAT DATA COLLECTION METHODS HAVE CHANGED
• RELATE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF CHANGE TO HUMAN‐CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE
• DON’T ADMIT THERE ARE FINANCIAL REWARDS FOR “PROVING” CLIMATE CHANGE IS RELATED TO CO2 LEVELS
• ONLY DETERMINE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE, NOT ANY BENEFITS
HOW IS THIS FOR PROOF?
AVERAGE HUMAN IN US
• ONE TESTICLE AND ONE BREAST
• CHECK TO SEE IF YOU ARE AVERAGE OR NORMAL
• IF YOU ARE NOT, IT IS PROBABLY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
QUESTIONS