how to fix an alpha model - mit

Nomura Securities International, Inc.U.S. Quantitative Research

19 November 2009

Nomura Securities International, Inc., New York

How to fix an alpha model

Joseph MezrichNomura Securities International, Inc.

Please read the analyst certifications and important disclosures on pp. 33–34. gl

2Joseph Mezrich, 212.667.9316, [email protected]

U.S. Quantitative Research

Alpha after the crisis• Which crisis?

Regime change in 2000. Is it now all about risk?

• The recovery: Are you buying cheap assets or simply trading risk?

The illusion of the stock picker’s market

Needed: Asset/Factor allocation in crowds – there is an eco-system



Why S&P 500 earnings should climb faster than broad economy –the positive backdrop

Note: Earnings are defined as the 12-month aggregate of real net income of all companies in the S&P 500 whose quarter ended on a given month. GDP is defined as the chain weighted real GDP at constant dollar prices. Last data as of 9/30/2009 for S&P 500 earnings and GDP. Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., S&P, Compustat, BEA, NBER.

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All together now The legacy of financial engineering

Systemic risk will likely change in magnitude but won’t go away

Note: Shows the long-term relationship between the volatility implied in 1-year S&P500 index options and the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa corporate bonds and 10-year US treasuries. The vertical line in the chart separates what seem to be two regimes: “after” when these risk measures tracked each other and “before” when they did not track each other. Last data as of 10/30/09.Source: Nomura Securities International, Inc., Opitionmetrics, Federal Reserve and Moody’s.

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All together nowThe legacy of financial engineering

Systemic risk will likely change in magnitude but won’t go away

Note: Shows z scores of cumulative monthly long-short factor returns of B/P and default risk (long low B/P and long low default risk). Also shows z scores of SPX 1-year implied volatility and synthetic CDX (post 2004 Markit’s index of credit default swap market risk, before 2004 implied CDX values imputed by spread between Baa corporates and 10-year T-bonds). The “before” and “after” line in the exhibit is placed at November 2001, the end of the 2001 recession. B/P factor returns based on decile spreads in Russell 1000 and default probability factor returns based on quintile spreads in S&P500. Decile or quintile baskets are rebalanced at the beginning of month. Last data as of 10/23/2009. Factor returns do not include transaction costs.Source: Nomura Securities International, Inc., Russell, S&P, Compustat, Worldscope, IDC, Ex-Share.

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Default risk return (LHS)Synthetic CDX (LHS)SPX 1 year implied volatility (LHS)B/P return (RHS)

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S&P500 implied volatility –equity risk jumped, then exploded, then reverted

Note: Shows implied volatilities of 1-month and 1-year S&P500 index options. Last data as of 11/11/2009.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc. and Optionmetrics.

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The world changed around 2000The odd case of one-year price momentum

Note: Shows one-year price momentum rebalanced at different times: end of month (blue line), middle of month (green line) and quarter end (red line). Universe is Russell 1000. Last data as of 10/31/09. Transaction costs are not considered.Source: Nomura Securities International, Inc., Russell, IDC.

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Notes: Universe is Russell 1000. The exhibit shows the cumulative monthly return to owning the best three factors in 22 representative factors on the right table, based on the past five-year performances. The period of analysis is from Mar 1984 through Sep 2009. Transaction costs are not considered.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, IDC, Russell.

The change in factor persistence:five-year factor momentum fades

Winning factors based on five-year performances

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Quality Accruals (Low - High)Leverage Debt/Equity (Low - High)

BetaDefault Risk (Safe - Risky)Estimate Dispersion (Low - High)

Profitability ROEMarket Cap (Small - Large)CapEx/Sales (Low - High)Analyst Coverage (Low - High)Share Buybacks

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Risk



Note: The bar chart displays the variance of the principal components derived from the factor set shown at right, and number above the bars corresponds to the cumulative percentage of variances. Universe is Russell 1000. The analysis is as of 4/30/2009.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

Principle components of fundamental factors… is it a single-factor world?

1 Mon. Price Momentum (Low - High)1 Year Price Momentum1 Year Dividend Growth5 Year EPS GrowthPredicted LT GrowthUp to Down RevisionsB/P

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Quality Accruals (Low - High)Leverage Debt/Equity (Low - High)

BetaDefault Risk (Safe - Risky)Estimate Dispersion (Low - High)

Profitability ROEMarket Cap (Small - Large)CapEx/Sales (Low - High)Analyst Coverage (Low - High)Share Buybacks

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Note: The bars show the loadings of the factors that produce the primary, first principal component for the period since the crisis began. The principal components analysis is based on monthly time series of 22 representative factor returns shown on page 9 from Jun 2007 through Apr 2009. Universe is Russell 1000.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

Principle components of fundamental factors… is it a single-factor world?

1st component since June 2007

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Note: Weights of the first principal component in the factor-return variance are shown in time series. The principal component analysis is based on the past three-year performances of the 22 representative factors shown on page 9. Universe is Russell 1000. The analysis ranges from Dec 1991 through Sep 2009.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, IDC, Russell.

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Notes: Universe is Russell 1000. Exhibit shows spreads of the cumulative weekly returns to owning the best three factors in 22 representative factors (see page 9), based on past four-week performances with different rebalance schedules. “Weekly rebalancing” indicates the case that winning factors are rebalanced at every Friday’s close, while “Month-end rebalancing” and “Avoiding month-end rebalancing” correspond to rebalancing at the first Friday’s close and the last Friday’s close every month, respectively. Period of analysis is from 27 Feb 1984 through 2 Oct 2009. Transaction costs are not considered.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, IDC, Russell.

Both speed and crowding are impacting factor strategy now

Diagnosing speed and crowding via rebalance scenario comparisons

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(Weekly rebalancing) - (Avoiding month-end rebalancing) = " Speed "

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Note: Universe is Russell 1000. Exhibit shows spreads of the cumulative daily returns to owning the best three factors in 22 representative factors based on the past 21 trading day performances with four different rebalance schedules. Period of analysis is from 27 Feb 1987 through 15 Oct 2009. Transaction costs are not considered.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, IDC, Russell.

Rebalance timing, speed and crowding –the impact of being early or late

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The odd case of one-month price momentum: Reversal or trend? Rebalance schedule lets you choose!

Note: Shows cumulative monthly returns to one-month price momentum (long bottom 100, short top 100) in Russell 1000. This is the opposite of the way that one-year momentum is defined, since one-month momentum is usually thought of as a reversal signal. The portfolios are rebalanced at the middle of month (blue line) and rebalanced at the end of the month (red line). Last data as of 7/31/2009. Transaction costs are not considered.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Russell, IDC.

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Alpha after the crisis

• Which crisis?







Correlation of B/P with default risk and earnings uncertainty- why value investing works (or doesn’t)

Note: B/P-default probability and estimate dispersion correlation are based on the B/P score and the logarithm of default probability or estimate dispersion (FY1) in S&P500 universe with 0 default probability stocks excluded. Last data as of 10/23/09.Source: Nomura Securities International, Inc., S&P, Compustat, I/B/E/S.

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Value fails when risk aversion rises and vice versa: Estimate dispersion vs. B/P

Note: US = Russell 1000; Europe = MSCI Europe, Japan = NOMURA 400, Asia ex Japan = MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan (Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Singapore). Shows cumulative return of a factor portfolio that is long the lowest estimate dispersion stocks and short the highest estimate dispersion, and the cumulative return of a factor portfolio that is long the highest book-to-price (B/P) stocks while short the lowest B/P stocks. US is based on decile baskets, while other regions are based on quintile baskets. Long and short baskets are rebalanced monthly with equal weighting. Last data as of 10/29/2009 for Japan, 10/28/2009 for US, Europe and Asia. Factor returns do not include transaction costs. Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, IDC, Worldscope, ExShare and MSCI.



Valuation and default probability –How fear and relief affect value stocks

Note: Green line shows average B/P for the 100 stocks in the S&P500 (US) and Nomura 400 (Japan) with the highest default probability, blue line shows average B/P for the 100 stocks with the lowest default probability. Returns do not include transaction costs. Last data as of 10/23/2009 for US and 10/29/2009 for Japan.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

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Revenge of the cheap losers – version 1

Note: Shows cumulative excess returns over Russell 1000 of each quintile of B/P and one-year price momentum from Jan 2007 to Oct 2009 in Russell 1000. Transaction costs are not included. Last data as of 10/31/2009.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

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Valuation and default probability –How fear and relief affect value stocks

Note: The B/P-default probability correlation is based on B/P score and logarithm of default probability in S&P500 universe with 0 default probability stocks excluded. B/P spread (high default risk – low default risk) is based on the gap between median B/P for top and bottom quintile in S&P500 universe due to the default probability. Synthetic CDX is CDX since the end of 2004, but extended before that by using the linear relationship with bond spreads, where the coefficients are estimated by the time series regression from 31 Dec 2004 to 4 Feb 2008. Transaction costs not included in factor returns. Last data as of 11/6/09.Source: Nomura Securities International, Inc., MarkitGroup Ltd., Optionmetrics, Federal Reserve, Moody’s, Bloomberg, S&P, Compustat,, IDC,.

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• Which crisis?







Regime changes:Beta as proxy for earnings uncertainty and earnings quality

Note: Shows cross-sectional correlations between factors beta vs. estimate dispersion and accruals. Universe is Russell 1000. Last data as of 9/30/2009.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, IDC, Russell.

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Beta and Earnings Uncertainty (Estimate Dispersion)

Beta and Earnings Quality (Accruals)



Note: Shows cumulative daily factor returns (long top decile, short bottom decile) for B/P, E/P, predicted E/P, and sales/price for stocks in the Russell 1000. Last data as of 11/10/2009. Transaction costs are not considered.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

Value strategies: the odd divide

Russell 1000: Value Factor Returns

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Sales/Price



Note: Shows cross-sectional correlation between book/price and predicted earnings/price (red line) and the cumulative monthly factor return (in this case, cheap minus expensive decile) spreads of B/P and predicted E/P (blue line). Universe is Russell 1000. Last data as of 10/31/2009.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

Correlation breakdown – B/P and Predicted E/P

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B/P and Predicted E/P Correlation (LHS)

B/P - Predicted E/P (RHS)

2/28/2009

When "factor correlation breakdown and a trade" published



Note: Shows cross-sectional correlation between book/price and predicted earnings/price (red line) and the cumulative monthly factor return (in this case, cheap minus expensive decile) spreads of B/P and predicted E/P (blue line), excluding transaction costs. Universe is Russell 1000. Last data as of 10/31/2009.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

Correlation breakdown —B/P vs. Predicted E/P and S/P vs. E/P

Pred EP and BP

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Correlation breakdown – A summary table for different value pairs

Note: Shows average correlation, lowest correlation since March 2009, current correlation (10/31/2009), annualized average spread (11/1984 to 10/2009) and cumulative spread from March to October 2009 between four value pairs, B/P vs. PredE/P, B/P vs. E/P, S/P vs. PredE/P and S/P vs. E/P. Universe is Russell 1000. Last data as of 10/31/2009.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

B/P vs Pred E/P B/P vs E/P S/P vs Pred E/P S/P vs E/PAverage Correlation (11/1984 -- 10/2009) 0.47 0.35 0.46 0.28Lowest Correlation

reached after March 2009 0.02 -0.14 0.14 -0.05

Current Correlation (10/31/2009) 0.08 -0.10 0.26 0.06Average Spread (annualized,

11/1984 -- 10/2009) -3.78% 0.96% 0.47% -4.26%Cumulative Spread, March

to October 2009 86% 38% 86% 38%




Note: Shows 6-month rolling returns of the losing decile with lowest scores of 1-year price momentum plus the cheapest deciles of book/price, earnings/price and predicted earnings/price, respectively. Universe is Russell 1000. Transaction costs are not considered. Last data as of 10/31/09.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

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Pred E/P (top decile) + 1 yr PM (bottom decile)




Note: Shows 6-month rolling returns of the losing decile with lowest scores of 1-year price momentum plus the cheapest deciles of book/price, earnings/price and predicted earnings/price, respectively. Universe is Russell 1000. Transaction costs not considered. Last data as of 10/31/09.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

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Vix

(ICJ) January 2010(JCJ) January 2011VIX

S&P500 Index Options are pricing high stock correlation

Note: Shows VIX index and different implied correlation indices, ICJ and JCJ. Last data as of 11/2/09.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Chicago Board Options Exchange.



Current and historical alpha-repair factor weights in US

Optimal Factors

Nov 2009 Oct 2009 Sep 2009 Aug 2009 Jul 2009 Jun 2009 May 2009 Apr 2009 Mar 2009 Feb 2009 Jan 2009 Dec 2008

Operating Income before deprec/price 27.8 39.6 40.4 40.3 39.1

Estimate Dispersion 34.6 31.7 35.2 33.9 30.5 28.0 42.4 41.2 37.0

Asset Turnover 31.0 32.2 25.6 28.7 24.4 25.8 30.5 22.7 25.4

EBITDA/EV 26.6 49.3 27.1 27.4 33.1 39.9

EBIT/EV 30.6 31.5

1 Year EPS Growth 34.7

Share Buybacks 41.2

Sales/Price 39.8

ROIC x B/P 29.9

Decreasing CapEx/Sales 41,2

Monthly Factor Selection and Weights (%)

Note: Shows monthly factor selection for Alpha Repair. Universe is Russell 1000. Data as of 10/31/2009. See Appendix L of US Quant Monthly for factor definitions. For details, see Nomura quant reports, Alpha Repair: a factor competition approach to stock selection, 22 January 2007, and Black swans and portfolio protection: factor constraints and alpha repair, 8 April 2008.Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.



Note: Last data as of 10/31/2009. Transaction costs are not included. For explanation of Alpha Repair Long Only portfolio, see Nomura quant report, Alpha Repair, 22 January 2007. Details of model performance, which should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance, are available upon request.

Source: Nomura Securities International Inc., Compustat, I/B/E/S, Russell, and IDC.

Alpha Repair:What we learned from two crises …

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Alpha-Repair Long-only Portfolio, Style-Factors Constrained

Out of SamplePortfolio

12/31/2006End of Backtest

regression line from backtest




• Which crisis?







Any Authors named on this report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated

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