how to predict the future
TRANSCRIPT
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How to Predict the Future
William Hertling
Defrag 2014
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2015 2025 2035
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
kb/s
Video
2005
Avg Speed: 1.2mbps
320 x 200 x 16 x 20% =
1.6mbps
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
kb/s
Napster
1999
Avg Speed: 88kbps
128 encoding = 3MB
Download time: 4 ½
minutes
Video
2005
Avg Speed: 1.2mbps
320 x 200 x 16 x 20% =
1.6mbps
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• Predicted: 62 Mbps
• Actual 59.3 Mbps
• Difference: 4.8%
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Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
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Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
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Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Implantable
computers
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Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Implantable
computers
2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.
Reaches easily implantable size by
2030.
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Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Implantable
computers
2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.
Reaches easily implantable size by
2030.
Human-level general
purpose AI
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Prediction Year Why
Last magnetic platter
hard drive
manufactured
2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,
compared to 65% for magnetic
platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
Implantable
computers
2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.
Reaches easily implantable size by
2030.
Human-level general
purpose AI
2025-2050 Processing power growing 47%/year,
50x/decade. Depends on estimates of
complexity of human intelligence.
Even if its 1000x more complicated,
that’s only 20 years further away.
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Objection #1
“Exponential growth is not enough.”
“There are hard problems to solve, and we
don’t know how.”
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Objection #2
“We haven’t done it, therefore we can’t do
it.”
“We’ve had forty years of disappointments.”
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Objection #3
“We’re going to run into fundamental limits.”
“The trend can’t continue.”
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Intel 80386
You are
here
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My Use Cases
1. Seed for creativity and brainstorming
2. Validate other people’s assumptions
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1986 1997
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Step 1: Calculate Annual
Increase
Compounded
Annual Growth
Rate
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Step 2: Extrapolate
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Sanity Check
Prediction off by ~ 2x
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Step 3: Predict
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Caveats
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To receive the following:
▪ A copy of this presentation
▪ Sample spreadsheets
▪ Links to my books
▪ Sample chapters
Just pick up your phone, and send an email:
To: [email protected]: defrag
William Hertling, @hertling
Want to Learn More?
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To receive the following:
▪ A copy of this presentation
▪ Sample spreadsheets
▪ Links to my books
▪ Sample chapters
Just pick up your phone, and send an email:
To: [email protected]: defrag
William Hertling, @hertling
Want to Learn More?
defrag