how to prepare for a strong shaking? - ndmindia.nic.in · masumi yamada, kyoto university how to...
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Masumi Yamada, Kyoto University
How to Preparefor a Strong Shaking?
Earthquake Early Warning in Japan
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2011 Tohoku EQEarthquake
P-wave detected
Location and Magnitude determinedEarthquake Early Warning issued
Observed Seismic Intensity reported
Tsunami Warning issued
0sec
19sec
27sec
3min
3.5min
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27 bullet trains were stopped without derailments.
- March 11, 2011
Damage to bullet trains・ Damage to cable column 540・ Damage to cable 470・ Damage to column 100・ Damage to rail track 20
AERA Mook 震災と鉄道全記録
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ProvidingEarthquake Early Warning
needs
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ProvidingEarthquake Early Warning
needs
infrastructure
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Seismic Stations
http://iisee.kenken.go.jp/net/shiva/update/India(IMD)0619.pdf
300km
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ProvidingEarthquake Early Warning
needs
infrastructure
![Page 9: How to Prepare for a Strong Shaking? - ndmindia.nic.in · Masumi Yamada, Kyoto University How to Prepare for a Strong Shaking? Earthquake Early Warning in Japan](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022041217/5e0609ec8fbec5570818954e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
ProvidingEarthquake Early Warning
needs
infrastructure information technology
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sensor
sensor
sensor
JapanMeteorologic
alAgency
TV
radiocell
phonetown
speaker
provider
train
factory<1sec
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“Earthquake occurred off Fukushima.Prepare for strong shaking.”(Japan Meteorological Agency)
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http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/study-panel/eew-hyoka/05/shiryou4-1.pdf
5th meeting of EEW improvement
Automated Responses to EEW
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Public announcement
Elevator: emergency stop
Warning (alarm)
Warning (flashing lights)
Show alert on monitors
Secure evacuation route
Control machine
Other
Nothing
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ProvidingEarthquake Early Warning
needs
infrastructure information technology
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ProvidingEarthquake Early Warning
needs
seismologyinformation technology
infrastructure
![Page 15: How to Prepare for a Strong Shaking? - ndmindia.nic.in · Masumi Yamada, Kyoto University How to Prepare for a Strong Shaking? Earthquake Early Warning in Japan](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022041217/5e0609ec8fbec5570818954e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Kanamori (2005)
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How to estimate shaking?
http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/EEW/Meeting_HYOUKA/t02/index.html
Step1: Estimate location from P-
arrival times
Step2: Estimate Mag. from
displacement (Ad) & R
Step3: Estimate Shaking intensity
from M & R
log10PGV=0.58Mw+0.0038D – 1.29 – log10 (R+0.0028*100.5Mw) – 0.002Rlog10ARV =1.83 – 0.66 log10AVS30SI = 2.68 +1.72log10 (PGV*ARV)
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Threshold of shaking to give EEW
The intensity is computed from acceleration waveforms.
5- 5+ 6- 6+ 7
0 1 2 3 4
(JMA Website)
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2001 Gujarat Earthquake
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Create Dataset | displacement amp.
Amplitude σ=±30%Vp and Vs σ=±10%
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Location Estimation
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Time History of Warnings
Earthquake
1st P-wave triggered @Bhuj
2nd P-wave triggered @ BhavnagarLocation and Magnitude determined
0sec
10sec
40sec
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Time History of Warnings
Bhuj
Bhavnagar
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Time History of Warnings
Earthquake
1st P-wave triggered @Bhuj
2nd P-wave triggered @ BhavnagarLocation and Magnitude determined
3nd P-wave triggered @ JaisalmerLocation error <10km
0sec
10sec
40sec
60sec
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Time History of Warnings
Bhuj
Bhavnagar
Jaisalmer
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Japanese EEWFacts and Figures
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http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/study-panel/eew-hyoka/06/shiryou1.pdf
6th meeting of EEW improvement
Number of warnings
0 20 40 60 80 100
93%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
44%
Accuracy
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False alarm for 2011 Tohoku aftershock
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False alarm for 2011 Tohoku aftershock
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2013 False alarm
EEW M7.8Reality M2.3
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M2.3
Disconnection of data
Noise
M7.8
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http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/study-panel/eew-hyoka/05/shiryou3-2.pdf
Feedback on the False AlarmUpset
Not upset, but concerned
No choice
Unconcerned
Disinterested
Other
0 10 20 30 40
3%
28%
40%
5th meeting of EEW improvement
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Summary
Earthquake Early Warning System needs:Infrastructure
InformationTechnology
Seismology Education× × ×
Examples:2001 Gujarat earthquake in India2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan2013 False alarm in Japan
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Problem1 : Underestimation
http://www.natureasia.com/japan/nature/specials/earthquake/nature_comment_051211-4.php
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7070Warnings
AfterTohoku
Problem2 : False Alarms
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/1104/28b/eew_hyouka_2.pdf
BeforeTohoku 1717
Warnings
55Exp.-Obs. ≧ 2
4444Intensity Error (Exp.-
Obs.)≧ 2
12123232multiple events others
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Failure of Hypocenter Relocation
Good! Bad…
3/11 M9 3/12 M6
JMA website
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Current Approach
Shake!
Shake!
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Our Approach
Shake!
Shake!
No shake
No shake
No shake
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7070Warnings
AfterTohoku
Performances
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/1104/28b/eew_hyouka_2.pdf
BeforeTohoku 1717
Warnings
55Exp.-Obs. ≧ 2
4444Intensity Error (Exp.-
Obs.)≧ 2
44 2626This Study