how to think like a strategist
TRANSCRIPT
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How to Think Like a Strategist
The „Playing to Win” Framework and Other Tools
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Message as a Six Word Story + Motto(Instead of an Executive Summary)
Playing to Win 2
Great Products Require Great Strategy Choices
http://www.sixwordmemoirs.com/
Iwapo unataka kwenda haraka, nenda peke yako.If you want to go quickly, go alone.
Iwapo mnataka kwenda mbali, nendeni pamoja.If you want to go far, go together.
Allagedly African proverb, transtated back from English to Swahili
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Who Can Think Strategically?
Playing to Win 3
You will understand the question better later on:
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Why You Should Think Stratigically#organization, #leadership_style, #creative_collaboration
Playing to Win 4https://vimeo.com/109611584
SpotifyTED + BCG:
How should a CEO lead?
https://labs.spotify.com/2014/03/27/spotify-engineering-culture-part-1/
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The Design Principle Requires Strategy Choices
Playing to Win 5
How to Reach the Centre from Almost There:• Tweak the business model*• Look for better technical solution• Enhance design
https://www.ideo.com/about/
Competition Risk Scarce
resources
Choose Where to Play How to Win
Based ontested hypotheses
* http://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/
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Disclaimer #1: Nothing in this Presentation was Invented by Me
Playing to Win 6
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Disclaimer #2: Strategy Frameworks Go Only So Far as The 2 Circles
Playing to Win 7
How to draw an owl (Seth Godin)The problem with most business and leadership advice is that it's a little like this.The two circles aren't the point. Getting the two circles right is a good idea, but lots of people manage that part. No, the difficult part is learning to see what an owl looks like. Drawing an owl involves thousands of small decisions, each based on the answer to just one question, "what does the owl look like?" If you can't see it (in your mind, not with your eyes), you can't draw it.There are hundreds of thousands of bullet points and rules of thumb about how to lead people, how to start and run a company, how to market, how to sell and how to do work that matters. Most of them involve drawing two circles. (HT to Stefano for the owl).Before any of these step by step approaches work, it helps a lot to learn to see. When someone does this job well, what does it look like? When you've created a relationship that works, what does it feel like?Incubator programs and coaching work their best not when they teach people which circles to draw, but when they engage in interactive learning after you've gone ahead and drawn your circle. The iterative process of drawing and erasing and drawing some more is how we learn to see the world.
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Disclaimer #3: No Checklist, a ToolboxVersion #1 for Marketing people
Playing to Win 8
You don’t have to use all these tools all the time.Use them like tools in IDEOs Design Thinking Toolkit:
https://www.ideo.com/work/human-centered-design-toolkit/
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Disclaimer #3: No Checklist, a ToolboxVersion #2 for IT people
Playing to Win 9
You don’t have to use all these tools all the time.Use them like importable modules are used in programming languages, eg.:
Python’s basic toolset doesn’t contain the value of pi = 3.14...
From the „math” module you can import pi with limited precision
If you need more digits (say 1000), you can use a module designed for arbitrary precision floating point calculations
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The 3 Levels of Thinking Strategically
Strategy in General
Business Strategy
Product Strategy
Playing to Win 10
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Strategy in General
Playing to Win 11
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An Emotionally Inspiring -- and Logically Somewhat Vague Approach
Playing to Win 12
https://www.ted.com/talks/simon_sinek_how_great_leaders_inspire_action
What is this approach very good for? What is it not so good for?(Hints: #leadership, #inspire_action, #feelings)
Neocortex WHAT Rational, analytical thinking Language [ Kahneman: slow thinking System 2]
Limbic brain WHY and HOW Feelings ‒ trust, loyalty Behavior No capacity for language [ Kahneman: fast thinking System 1]
See also: Why-How Laddering
https://dschool.stanford.edu/wp-content/themes/dschool/method-cards/why-how-laddering.pdf
Related: 5 Things You Didn't Know About Apple's '1984' Super Bowl Ad (Like How It Almost Didn't Air)
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Strategy is a Stage of Thinking & Learning
Playing to Win 13
Source of claritiy: one border crossing at each step Optional step #0: all logical possibilities for Do next
http://www.amazon.com/Getting-It-Done-Youre-Charge/dp/0887309585
The 4 Stages of the Thinking Process
Learning = Thinking + Doing
Sometimes we start here – which can be OK, if we proceed to the next cycle.
If you start here, you need to reverse engineer you strategy = test its underlying hypotheses
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Problem solving in „Getting to Yes”
Playing to Win 14
Data
Diagnosis Direction
Do next
Future
Rea
l Wor
ldTh
eory
Now
http://www.williamury.com/books/getting-to-yes/
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Problem solving in „Getting to Yes”
Playing to Win 15
Data
Diagnosis Direction
Do next
Future
Rea
l Wor
ldTh
eory
Now
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Learning = thinking + doing + thinking + …
Playing to Win 16
http://www.amazon.com/Getting-It-Done-Youre-Charge/dp/0887309585
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A viable strategy requires correct diagnosis:a simplistic textbook example
Playing to Win 17
Diagnosis => Direction = ?
Data: the extent of fire damage ~ # of firefighters on the scene
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Fire damage vs firefighters – diagnosis Aor B?
Playing to Win 18
Data
Diagnosis Direction
Do next
Future
Rea
l Wor
ldTh
eory
Fire damage ~ # of FFs on the scene
Now Diagnosis A: # of FFs =>
severity of damage Diagnosis B: severity of fire
=> # of FFs & damage
Direction A: send less FFs Direction B: BAU
Do next A: next time no FFs
Do next B: BAU
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Fire damage vs firefighters – diagnosis Aor B?
Playing to Win 19
Data
Diagnosis Direction
Do next
Future
Rea
l Wor
ldTh
eory
Fire damage ~ # of FFs on the scene
Now Diagnosis A: # of FFs =>
severity of damage Diagnosis B: severity of fire
=> # of FFs & damage
Direction A: send less FFs Direction B: BAU
Do next A: next time no FFs
Do next B: BAU
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Food for Thought
Playing to Win 20
1) Compare the 4D matrix with the Lean Cycle framework:
2) What dimension would make sense to add (in addition to Time = now vs future, Reality = real world vs theory) when we wnat to think about strategy?
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Business Strategy
Playing to Win 21
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Steve Jobs Discussing „Where to Play” and „How to Win” with Professional Workstations
Playing to Win 22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNfRgSlhIW0
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A Specific Business Strategy Framework: Direction Playing to Win
Playing to Win 23
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Where to Play and How to Win
Playing to Win 24
Choices also indicate options not to be chosen Consistent horizontally
and vertically Based on tested
hypotheses Embrace inherent risk of
business
http://www.amazon.com/Playing-Win-Strategy-Really-Works-ebook/dp/B00AJVJ1HI/
The „Heart” of Strategy
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Where to Play and How to Win
Playing to Win 25
http://www.amazon.com/Playing-Win-Strategy-Really-Works-ebook/dp/B00AJVJ1HI/
The „Heart” of StrategySometimes overlooked. Famous mgmt systems include eg. :
P&G’s codified Brand Building Framework
Toyota Production System
Apple’s DRI system
Holacracy
Revenues Costs
Message to employees, investors,competition
Products + Infrastructure + Mktg / sales machine + Analytics + ...
Leadership style + Strategy creation + Collaboration + KPIs + Decision making + Talent mgmt + Incentives + ...
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A Canvas for Strategy Workshops
Playing to Win 26http://matthewemay.com/introducing-the-play-to-win-strategy-canvas-2-0/
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The Big Lie of Strategic Planning #1
[Strategic planning] may be an excellent way to cope with fear of the unknown, but fear and discomfort are an essential part of strategy making. In fact, if you are entirely comfortable with your strategy, there’s a strong chance it isn’t very good. You’re probably stuck in one or more of the traps I’ll discuss in this article. You need to be uncomfortable and apprehensive: True strategy is about placing bets and making hard choices. The objective is not to eliminate risk but to increase the odds of success.
Comfort Trap 1: Strategic Planning
The subtle slide from strategy to planning occurs because planning is a thoroughly doable and comfortable exercise.
Comfort Trap 2: Cost-Based Thinking
[T]he predictability of costs is fundamentally different from the predictability of revenue. Planning can’t and won’t make revenue magically appear, and the effort you spend creating revenue plans is a distraction from the strategist’s much harder job: finding ways to acquire and keep customers.
Comfort Trap 3: Self-Referential Strategy Frameworks
[The resource-based view (RBV) of the firm] holds that the key to a firm’s competitive advantage is the possession of valuable, rare, inimitable, and non-substitutable capabilities. [...] The problem, of course, is that capabilities themselves don’t compel a customer to buy. Only those that produce a superior value equation for a particular set of customers can do that.
Playing to Win 27
https://hbr.org/2014/01/the-big-lie-of-strategic-planning
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The Big Lie of Strategic Planning #2
Escaping the Traps
Rule 1: Keep the strategy statement simple.
Two choices determine success: the where-to-play decision (which specific customers to target) and the how-to-win decision (how to create a compelling value proposition for those customers).
Rule 2: Recognize that strategy is not about perfection.
[G]iven that strategy is primarily about revenue rather than cost, perfection is an impossible standard. At its very best, therefore, strategy shortens the odds of a company’s bets.
Rule 3: Make the logic explicit.
The only sure way to improve the hit rate of your strategic choices is to test the logic of your thinking: For your choices to make sense, what do you need to believe about customers, about the evolution of your industry, about competition, about your capabilities? It is critical to write down the answers to those questions, because the human mind naturally rewrites history and will declare the world to have unfolded largely as was planned rather than recall how strategic bets were actually made and why. If the logic is recorded and then compared to real events, managers will be able to see quickly when and how the strategy is not producing the desired outcome and will be able to make necessary adjustments.
Playing to Win 28
https://hbr.org/2014/01/the-big-lie-of-strategic-planning
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6 of the Most Common Strategy Traps
• The do-it-all strategy: failing to make choices, and making everything a priority. Remember, strategy is choice.
• The Don Quixote strategy: attacking competitive “walled cities” or taking on the strongest competitor first, head-to-head. Remember, where to play is your choice. Pick somewhere you can have a chance to win.
• The Waterloo strategy: starting wars on multiple fronts with multiple competitors at the same time. No company can do everything well. If you try to do so, you will do everything weakly.
• The something-for-everyone strategy: attempting to capture all consumer or channel or geographic or category segments at once. Remember, to create real value, you have to choose to serve some constituents really well and not worry about the others.
• The dreams-that-never-come-true strategy: developing high-level aspirations and mission statements that never get translated into concrete where-to-play and how-to-win choices, core capabilities, and management systems. Remember that aspirations are not strategy. Strategy is the answer to all five questions in the choice cascade.
• The program-of-the-month strategy: settling for generic industry strategies, in which all competitors are chasing the same customers, geographies, and segments in the same way. The choice cascade and activity system that supports these choices should be distinctive. The more your choices look like those of your competitors, the less likely you will ever win.
Playing to Win 29
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Where to Play: Citizens of 2 Worlds Extremistan vs Mediocristan
Playing to Win 30
MODERATE EXTREME
How to achieve Win – Win?
https://www.facebook.com/events/927274840643068/http://magyarnarancs.hu/egotripp/maga-itt-a-tanctanar-81841
riskSmart to take
Telcos vs
Travels Inside MediocristanThe Strange Country of Extremistan
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Zappos Founder about Poker Learnings
Playing to Win 31
[Where to Play]
Table selection is the most important decision you can make. It's okay to switch tables if you discover it's too hard to win at your table. If there are too many competitors (some irrational or inexperienced), even if
you're the best it's a lot harder to win. Don't play games that you don't understand, even if you see lots of other people
making money from them. Figure out the game when the stakes aren't high.
[How to Win]
Act weak when strong, act strong when weak. Know when to bluff. Remember that it's a long-term game. You will win or lose individual hands or
sessions, but it's what happens in the long term that matters. You need to adjust your style of play throughout the night as the dynamics of
the game change. Be flexible. Differentiate yourself. Do the opposite of what the rest of the table is doing. Hope is not a good plan. Don't let yourself go "on tilt." It's much more cost-effective to take a break, walk
around, or leave the game for the night.
http://deliveringhappiness.com/what-poker-taught-tony-hsieh-about-business/
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Your Strategy Needs a Stretegy
Playing to Win 32
The exploration versus exploitation trade-off is at the heart of all business strategy.
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/yourstrategyneedsastrategy
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Where to Play and How to Win, an Alternate Approach: Stakeholder Analysis
Identify which stakeholders you depend on for success
• Customers
• Supplyers
• Employees
• Shareholders
• Etc
Recognize what you want from your stakeholders
• Sales and revenue growth from customers
• Productivity and innovation from employees
• Quality goods and services at the right price from suppliers
Recognize what your stakeholders want from you =
strategic factors (example: what ship operators want
from a port)
• Port capability (suitability for a ship’s size and freight)
• Freight availability (to pick up on the return leg)
• Congestion (speed of unloading and turnaround time in the port)
• Location (which affects “steaming time,” or time between destinations)
• Price (port charges for docking and remaining moored)
Playing to Win 33
https://hbr.org/2014/11/a-list-of-goals-is-not-a-strategy
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Product Strategy
Playing to Win 34
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Is Your Product a „Vitamin” or „Painkiller?”
Playing to Win 35
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736
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Is Your Product a „Vitamin” or „Painkiller?”
Playing to Win 36
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736
PRO: Pains are usually common and easy to identify
CON: once pain has gone, noroom for further value creation
CON: Imagination needed to comprehend benefits
PRO: infinite room for value creation
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Usually Both, in Varying Degree
Playing to Win 37
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736
Also looks good Also gives peace of mind
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Product = Combination of Vitamin and Painkiller Features
Playing to Win 38
http://blog.strategyzer.com/posts/2015/2/19/5-common-mistakes-to-avoid-when-using-the-value-proposition-canvas
Outside of our control
Common mistake: Creating your Customer Profile through the lens of your value proposition
Within our control
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Different Kinds of Benefits
Playing to Win 39
Painkillers
Vitamins
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How to Win = How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 40
http://www.behaviormodel.org/
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How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 41
http://www.behaviormodel.org/
Challenge SeekersHigh
Extreme
Sales Sweet Spot
Low Extreme
Comfort Zone Seekers
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How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 42
http://www.behaviormodel.org/
???
??? Trigger = ???
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How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 43
http://www.behaviormodel.org/
Brand ?Value Prop?Content?
CEX ?Education?
Trigger = MarComm?
Discount ? -
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How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 44
http://www.behaviormodel.org/
Brand ?Value Prop?Content?
CEX ?Education?
Trigger = MarComm?
Discount ? -BJ Fogg:
ROI(Changing Ability) >> ROI(Changing Motivation)
You should make it easy for customers to do WHAT THEY ALREADY WANT TO DO
Nir Eyal (Hooked)
External vs Internal Triggers
Hook your users via
INTERNAL TRIGGERS, VARIABLE REWARD and INVESTMENT
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How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 45
http://www.behaviormodel.org/
6 Simplicity Factors:
Time
Money
Physical Effort
Brain Cycles
Social Deviance
Non-routine
Core Motivators
+ Pleasure / - Pain
+ Hope / - Fear
+ Social Acceptance / - Rejection
See Job-to-be-done, Purpose Brands by Clayton Christensen
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB113323520565808847
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The Hooked Model to Implement Internal Triggers, Reward and Investment
Playing to Win 46
http://www.nirandfar.com/hooked
VITAMIN PAINKILLER
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Product vs Brand
Playing to Win 47
Brand image is not always under your control
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Deep Dive Material
Playing to Win 48
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3 vs 4 Step Thinking / Learning Cycle
Playing to Win 49
http://theleanstartup.com/principles
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3 vs 4 Step Thinking / Learning Cycle
Playing to Win 50
Diagnosis Direction
http://theleanstartup.com/principles
Do Next
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Why-How Laddering
Playing to Win 51
https://dschool.stanford.edu/wp-content/themes/dschool/method-cards/why-how-laddering.pdf
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Mediocristan vs Extemistan
Playing to Win 52
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Mediocristan vs Extremistan
Playing to Win 53
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„A strategy that only works if competitors continue to do exactly what they are already doing is a dangerous strategy indeed.”
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Playing to Win: Making Stratey Choices
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https://hbr.org/2012/09/bringing-science-to-the-art-of-strategy
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Questions for Reverse-Engineering (Step #3)
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Reverse Engineering Example from P&G
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The First Question to Ask of Any Strategy
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So do a little test of your strategy before committing to it. Ask:
Is the opposite stupid on its face? Have most of my competitors made the same choice as
me?
If the answers are “yes,” you have more work to do to have a smart strategy rather than just a non-stupid one.
https://hbr.org/2015/05/the-first-question-to-ask-of-any-strategy
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Example #1: Procter & Gamble
What is our winning aspiration?• For Oil of Olay, it was to become a leading skin care brand again.
Where will we play?• The Oil of Olay brand stayed with its mass market retailers (e.g., Target and Wal-Mart) rather
than the prestige stores (e.g., Macy’s). But it positioned itself as a "masstige" product — higher end (and higher priced) than the traditional mass market beauty product.
How will we win? • Among Oil of Olay’s winning strategies was producing a better anti-aging skin care product — a
product at the right price (e.g., not too low) that would entice the prestige customer base.
What capabilities must be in place?• Oil of Olay, for example, was able to leverage P&G’s strengths in consumer understanding and
brand building.
What management systems are required?• Oil of Olay was also able to leverage P&G’s systems as well as its channel and partner systems.
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Example #2: Vodafone Group
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How to Win: Worry-Free data usage with Red plans Monthly fee = stable revenue stream, fixed
customers pay typically monthly fee Broad coverage, a reliable connection,
increasing speeds and data capacity, content, payment services
Capabilities: Project Spring: network development Service Design International brand India: more small-scale shops than
competitors
Mgmt System: The Vodafone Way, Code of Conduct
http://www.vodafone.com/content/annualreport/annualreport15/assets/pdf/full_annual_report_2015.pdf
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Strategy Under Uncertainty: Strategic Postures
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https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty
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Players and strategies in the TIME industry
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Strategic Choices in Converging Industries TIME = Telco, Info tech, Media, Entertainment
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The Strategy Map (from Business Model Generation)
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Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos
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https://www.tmforum.org/tm-forum-frameworx/browse-clickable-model/
https://workflowy.com/s/2sJTXT54lA
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Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos
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Decision Commit
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Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos
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Product & Offer Portfolio Planning processes develop strategies for products at the portfolio level. The decision is made as to which product types the enterprise wants or needs to offer, and how it plans to enter or grow in these sectors. This will be done based on multiple inputs: including Enterprise Strategies, Market Research and Market Analysis.
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Business (as opposed to Technical) Strategy Domains
Strategic & Enterprise Planning
•The Strategic & Enterprise Planning process grouping focuses on the processes required to develop the strategies and plans for the service provider enterprise.
•This process grouping includes the discipline of Strategic Planning that determines the business and focus of the enterprise, including which markets the enterprise will address, what financial requirements must be met, what acquisitions may enhance the enterprise's financial or market position, etc.
•Enterprise Planning develops and coordinates the overall plan for the business working with all key units of the enterprise. These processes drive the mission and vision of the enterprise.
Market Strategy & Policy
•Market Strategy & Policy processes enable the development of a strategic view of an enterprise’s existing and desired market-place, activities and aims.
•Market segmentation and analysis is performed, to determine an enterprise’s target and addressable markets, along with the development of marketing strategies for each market segment or set of target customers.
•The decision is made as to which markets the enterprise wants or needs to be in, and how it plans to enter or grow in these markets and market segments.
•This will be achieved through multiple inputs: including Enterprise Strategies, Market Research, Market Analysis.
Product & Offer Portfolio Planning
•Product & Offer Portfolio Planning processes develop strategies for products at the portfolio level.
•The decision is made as to which product types the enterprise wants or needs to offer, and how it plans to enter or grow in these sectors.
•This will be done based on multiple inputs: including Enterprise Strategies, Market Research and Market Analysis
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