hsl pcg “the daily” october 23, 2018 daily 23102018... · bajaj finserv q2 fy19 result...

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG] October 23, 2018 HSL PCG “THE DAILY”

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Page 1: HSL PCG “THE DAILY” October 23, 2018 Daily 23102018... · Bajaj Finserv Q2 FY19 Result Expectation Bajaj may report total income at Rs 9,477cr, up 25%, on the back of robust traction

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

October 23, 2018

HSL PCG “THE DAILY”

Page 2: HSL PCG “THE DAILY” October 23, 2018 Daily 23102018... · Bajaj Finserv Q2 FY19 Result Expectation Bajaj may report total income at Rs 9,477cr, up 25%, on the back of robust traction

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

2

Close Points % Change

SENSEX 34134 -181 -0.53

NIFTY 10245 -58 -0.57

MIDCAP 13959 -99 -0.71

SMALL CAP 13805 -278 -1.97

Close Points % Change

POWER 1943 1 0.06

AUTO 19573 0 0.00

Healthcare 14517 -32 -0.22

BANKEX 27978 -64 -0.23

Finance 5295 -16 -0.29

REALTY 1575 -9 -0.57

CG 16536 -108 -0.65

TECK 7054 -48 -0.68

IT 14191 -104 -0.73

METAL 12723 -94 -0.73

CD 18014 -232 -1.27

OIL & GAS 12825 -322 -2.45

BSE %

ADVANCES 824 30

DECLINES 1774 64

UNCHANGED 166 6

GAINERS % LOSERS %

IBULHSGFIN 9.20 DHFL -10.25

MUTHOOTFIN 5.89 INDUSINDBK -8.52

INDHOTEL 4.24 RBLBANK -7.01

ICICIBANK 3.84 BHARATFIN -6.86

EICHERMOT 3.12 MFSL -6.51

BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY

Rs Cr 22/10/18 19/10/18 Sep Total

FII -512 -618 -17346

MF 303 -2 10822

The weakness of the NBFCs and infra stocks, continuedweakness in cement stocks and now the weaker thanexpected results from the paint companies paints apessimistic picture of the markets.

RBI and Government will meet today to increaseliquidity in the system, especially the ability of weak PSUbanks to lend by relaxing strict PCA norms.

In such a scenario, it might be a good idea to keep yourrisk taking ability intact.

How to do that?

1. By conserving cash2. Cutting your losses and booking profits.3. Switching from poor quality stocks to high qualityones by selling in one go and buying in tranches.

Portfolios can be protected to a certain extent by buyingputs in the Nifty. Best protection cones by way of buyingputs in the stock concerned.

But what if stocks you hold are not in the derivativesegment? Reducing exposure in part will help in creatingthat cash, which may be useful.

The Nifty will test the mettle of the bulls today as itopens with a downward gap, below the 10,200mark. The level of 10,138, seen earlier this month,will then loom into the horizon. This has been a crucialsupport and retesting of that without making a highertop means that the chances of that level holding arefeeble.

In such a scenario, it is prudent to keep some drypowder. It is better to be safe than sorry.

Asian Paints Q2 net profit fell 15% to Rs 506crore; misses Street estimates

Asian Paints reported net profit for the Septemberquarter at Rs 506 crore. The company had reported Rs593.6 crore during the same quarter of last year, whichincluded profit on account of discontinued operations ofRs 67.5 crore. Hence, the numbers cannot be compared.

DOMESTIC INDICES VIEW POINT

SECTORAL INDICES

BSE 200 GAINERS/LOSERS

ADVANCE/DECLINES

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

3

Close Points % Chg

DOW JONES 25317 -126.93 -0.50

S & P 500 2756 -11.90 -0.43

NASDAQ 7469 19.60 0.26

FTSE 7043 -7.00 -0.10

CAC 5053 -31.34 -0.62

DAX 5309 -13.59 -0.26

MSCI World 2062 -2.14 -0.10

MSCI EM 971 0.57 0.06

MSCI AC Pac. 153 -0.30 -0.20

Value % Change

USD/INR 73.7 0.05

EURO/USD 1.1 -0.04

USD/GBP 0.8 0.01

USD/JPY 112.6 -0.20

Value % Chg bps

IND10 Yr Bond Yield 7.93 0.01

Value %

RJ/CRB Index 197.3 0.04

Gold ($ / Oz) 1226.5 0.16

Silver ($ / Oz) 14.6 -0.15

Crude Oil Futures 69.2 -0.30

Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 79.5 -0.43

Value $ %

Dr Reddys Labs 34.17 -1.56

HDFC Bank 88.87 1.51

ICICI Bank 8.72 2.35

Rediff.com India 0.09 41.59

Tata Motors 11.61 -2.35

Wipro 5.13 0.59

Vedanta Ltd 11.54 2.03

MTNL 0.31 0.00

Revenue rose 9% to Rs 4,639 crore against Rs 4,265.3

crore (ex-excise duty) that was posted during thecorresponding quarter of last year.

At an operating level, the earnings before interest,taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) fell to Rs784 crore against Rs 801.2 crore. On the operatingfront, company disappointed street. Operating margincame in at 16.9 percent against 18.8 percent year onyear.

The company further said that decorative businesssegment in India saw a low double-digit volume growth.

In the international operations, business continued toremain challenging with issues like forex unavailability,high inflation and difficult economic conditions impactingperformance.

BHEL to consider share buyback on Oct 25, 2018

Bharat Heavy Electrical Limited (BHEL), in a BSE filing,has informed the stock exchanges that its board ofdirectors will consider and approve a proposal tobuyback fully paid-up equity shares on Thursday,October 25, 2018.BHEL’s board is meeting on Thursday

to consider the unaudited financial results for thequarter ended September 30, 2018.

As on March 31, 2018, BHEL had Rs2,769cr of cash &

cash equivalent on its books. The Government of Indiaholds 63.06%, while Life Insurance Corporation (LIC)holds 9.42% in the company for the same period.

DGAP finds Nestle profiteered Rs 100 Cr, company

deposits Rs 16.58 cr in fund

An investigation by the Directorate General of Anti-

Profiteering (DGAP) has found that FMCG major NestleIndia indulged in profiteering of about Rs 100 crore by

not passing on GST rate cut benefit to consumers, anofficial said.

The DGAP, which has submitted its report to theNational Anti Profiteering Authority (NAA), hadconducted the investigation on a wide range of productsof Nestle India and found that the company had notreduced prices of certain products in proportion to thecut in Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate.

GLOBAL INDICES

EXCHANGE RATES

COMMODITIES

INTEREST RATES

ADR

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

4

When contacted, a Nestle India spokesperson said the company has suomoto deposited moneyin the Consumer Welfare Fund in cases where it could not pass on the tax rate cut benefits toconsumers.

"We have taken appropriate measures to pass on commensurate benefits of GST to ourconsumers. We wish to reiterate that in situations where the benefit could not be passed oninstantly by reduction in Maximum Retail Price or increase in grammage, the amount was setaside to be subsequently passed on and was not reckoned either in sales or in profit, a NestleIndia spokesperson said.

Genus Power Infrastructures Q2 FY19 Profit jumps 39%

Genus Power Q2 net profit rises to Rs 12.4 crore vs. Rs 8.9 crore; revenue rises to Rs 223.3

crore vs. Rs 166.3 croreYoY.

HCL Technologies Q2 results expectations

HCL Technologies is expected to report steady earnings for the quarter ended September 2018.

HCL may post sequential revenue growth in the range of 2.5-3.7 percent in constant currency(CC) terms. Average dollar revenue growth is expected to be more than 1.5 percent QoQ.

Seasonal softness in products business will weigh on organic growth for the company, theresearch house said, adding cross-currency would be a headwind of around 150bps for Q2FY19;hence, US dellar revenue growth would be 1.7 percent QoQ.

EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) growth is likely to be inthe range of 4-9 percent.

Other key things to watch out for

Following are key things to watch out for:

> Commentary about growth in IMS, and ERD businesses.

> Progress on deal closures in IMS, areas which have witnessed a slowdown

> Capital allocation in light of aggressive M&A targets of the company

> Synergy benefits and performance of inorganic initiatives

>Utilisation of currency gains

> Any revision to revenue growth and margin guidance for FY19

> More clarity in IP revenues

Adani Port Q2 PAT seen down ~55% yoy to Rs 343cr

Revenues may dip ~10% to Rs 2601cr. EBITDA margin is expected to remain strong, +300bpsto 63.1%. Company may report huge forex loss in the quarter. In Q1 FY19, it was at Rs 380crand in this quarter, it may come in at ~Rs 500cr. The forex loss would dent the profitability. PATmay see sharp 55% cut to Rs 343cr.

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

5

Bajaj Finserv Q2 FY19 Result Expectation

Bajaj may report total income at Rs 9,477cr, up 25%, on the back of robust traction in financeand general insurance businesses of the company. Life insurance business is expected to remainsubdued, while ~9% yoy increase in annual premium equivalent and almost flat new businessas compared to the previous period. AUM growth under the finance arm is expected to be morethan ~35% yoy.

Consolidated adjusted net profit after tax (attributable to shareholders) may grow 37% to Rs895cr, on account of likely improvement in the combined ratio of the general insurance businessand marginal improvement in the value of new business (VNB) margin.

Net interest margin (NII) for finance business is expected to witness ~40% growth backed byhigher AUM coupled with stable NIM and NPA ratio under the arm (Bajaj Finance).

Bajaj Fin ance Q2 FY19 Result Expectation

Bajaj Finance may report 39% loan growth YoY in Q2FY19. Calculated margins ofaround 11.1 percent are expected with NII growth of 40 percent YoYRs 2,442 crore. Net profit isexpected to rise by 40% with stable asset quality.

RBL Bank Q2 FY19 preview

NII is expected to grow ~38% yoy to Rs 579cr led by strong CASA and strong loan growth.Asset quality is likely to remain largely stable. The Bank may post 34% yoy growth to Rs 203cr.

Kansai Nerolac Net Sales at Rs 1,294 crore, up 11.1%

Company reported net sales of Rs 1,294 crore in September 2018 up 11.1% from Rs. 1,164.3crore in September 2017. EBITDA stood at Rs. 208.9 crore in September 2018 down 11.3%from Rs. 235.5 crore in September 2017. Net Profit came in at Rs. 122 crore in September 2018down 15.6% from Rs. 144.6 crore in September 2017.

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower Monday, with the S&P 500 dropping for a fourth day in a row,as investors braced for a deluge of earnings against the backdrop of higher interest rates andconcerns about global growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127 points or 0.50% to close at 25,317.

The S&P 500 lost 12 points or 0.43% to 2,759.

The Nasdaq Composite, however, rose 20 points or 0.26% to 7,469.

Falling financials, mostly banks, kept a lid on the broader averages, weighed down by a slumpin shares of Citigroup and Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs fell more than 2%, even as the bankrevealed plans to grow its consumer finance business.

Halliburton and Polaris Industries (NYSE:PII) got the busiest week of the corporate earningsunderway. Both delivered earnings that beat economists' forecast, extending a trend of upbeatearnings, but Halliburton shares sank on concerns of North American revenue. Losses in thebroader market, however, were limited by a strong outing for tech underpinned by a rise insemiconductor stocks shrugging off a cautious note from Morgan Stanley.

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

6

Advanced Micro Devices rose 6%, while Intel and Texas Instruments also ended the day higher.In corporate news, Facebook is reportedly looking at acquiring a cyber security firm as it looksbeef up the security on its social media platform, which recently suffered a cyber attack in whichmillions of user data were compromised. Its share rose 0.47%.

Trade Fears Return

Tradewars were back in focus, denting risk sentiment as Chinese government leaders said theywere not afraid of a trade war with the United States. This comes after a report suggesting thatPresident Donald Trump wants Beijing to "suffer more."

Earnings

Investors will be wading through a flood of earnings this week as the third-quarter reportingseason is on in earnest. More than 150 companies are on tap to announce financial results thisweek.

Data from Factset showed 82% of the S&P 500 companies that have posted earnings havetopped expectations.

Economic Data

The sole data on tap was the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which decreased to 0.17 inSeptember from 0.27 in August.

Chinese markets surge

Chinese stocks surged on reassuring comments by leaders and regulators in the wake of lastweek’s market rout and disappointing economic data. The Shanghai composite closed 4.1%higher, while the smaller Shenzhen Composite soared more than 5%.

Over the weekend, China President Xi Jinping emphasized China’s support for the private sector,according to the Xinhua News Agency, following concerted moves Friday by Vice Premier Liu He,Xi’s top economic official, and the head of the central bank and financial regulators to reassureinvestors.

Other markets

European markets closed lower after trading with gains during the day.

The All Europe Stoxx 600 fell 0.42%. The German Dax shed 0.26% while the UK's FTSE 100slipped 0.10%.

Gold prices settled lower. The U.S. dollar traded higher.

Crude Oil inches higher

The West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 5 cents, or less than 0.1%, tofinish at $69.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after spending much of thesession trading lower.

The expiration of the November contract at the day’s settlement often contributes to volatility.

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

7

December WTI crude which is now the front-month contract, added 8 cents or 0.1%, to $69.36.

Global benchmark December Brent crude edged up by a nickel, or less than 0.1%, to $79.83 abarrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Several U.S. lawmakers from both sides of the aisle called for sanctions on the kingdom overthe weekend as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin prepared to visit Saudi Arabia.

Mnuchin told reporters that the administration’s relationship with Saudi Arabia was critical to theU.S. plan to thwart Iran’s effort to become the region’s dominant power, according to newsreports.

Saudi energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, told Russia’s TASS news agency that there was nointention to repeat the 1973 oil embargo that sent global energy prices soaring.

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

8

NOTE: ALL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS GIVEN BY PCG TEAM ARE ON REAL TIMEBASIS. A TRADING RECOMMENDATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED ORSQUARED OFF AS AND WHEN A STOPLOSS OR TARGET IS TOUCHED IN INTRADAYTRADING. DO NOT WAIT FOR TARGET ACHIEVED OR STOPLOSS MESSAGE TO CLOSETHE POSITIONS. REFER JAMMOON FOR TIMELY ENTRY AND EXIT FROMRECOMMENDATIONS.

DATE COUNTRY EVENT PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS

N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

DATE COUNTRY EVENT PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS ACTUAL

19 10 2018 Japan CPI (YoY%) Sep , 2018 1.3 1.3 1.2

19 10 2018 Japan CPI Core(YoY%) Sep , 2018 1 0.9 1.0

19 10 2018 China GDP (YoY%) 3Q 6.6 6.7 6.5

19 10 2018 China GDP (QoQ%) 3Q 1.6 1.8 1.6

19 10 2018 ChinaIndustrial Production (YoY%)

Sep , 2018 6 6.1 5.8

DATA & EVENTS

OPEN TRADING CALLS

TODAY’S EVENTS

YESTERDAY’S EVENTS

No. Reco Date Company Name Reco Cost SL Target

1 12-10-2018 PETRONET BUY 218-213 208 233

2 22-10-2018 BATAINDIA OCT FUTURE SELL 877.55-884 890 855

3 22-10-2018 NATIONALUM OCT FUTURE BUY 67.75-66.5 65.9 70.5

4 22-10-2018 NIFTY OCT 10100 PUT BUY 44.25 25 75

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

9

Date Script Name Fund NameBuy/Sell

Quantity Value

(Rs.Cr.)

NSE

22/10/18Dewan Housing Fin Corp

GRAVITON RESEARCH CAPITAL LLP

BUY 1722760 34.3

22/10/18Dewan Housing Fin Corp

GRAVITON RESEARCH CAPITAL LLP

SELL 1722760 34.4

22/10/18Dewan Housing Fin Corp

JASMINE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS PTE LTD

SELL 7119283 140.8

22/10/18Dewan Housing Fin Corp

SHAASTRA SECURITIES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED

BUY 3268051 65.3

22/10/18Dewan Housing Fin Corp

SHAASTRA SECURITIES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED

SELL 3268051 65.3

BSE

N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

* Bulk deals of only more than Rs.25 Cr are taken into consideration

DATA & EVENTS

BULK DEALS*

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

10

DATA & EVENTS

RESULT CALENDAR-BSE500

DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY

23-Oct ADANIPORTS 24-Oct INDIGO 25-Oct CROMPTON

AMBUJACEM INFRATEL DBCORP

BAJAJCORP JUBLFOOD DISHTV

BAJAJFINSV JYOTHYLAB GMDCLTD

BAJFINANCE KOTAKBANK HEIDELBERG

BAYERCROP KPIT INTELLECT

HCLTECH L&TFH JMFINANCIL

HDFCLIFE LAKSHVILAS JSWSTEEL

ICICIPRULI LTI KAJARIACER

MCX M&MFIN LTTS

RALLIS RADICO MARUTI

RBLBANK SIS ORIENTBANK

RNAVAL SKFINDIA PEL

TATAMETALI STRTECH PVR

TEJASNET SUNCLAYLTD QUESS

TVSMOTOR SYNGENE RAYMOND

ZENSARTECH TNPL SHRIRAMCIT

BAJAJ-AUTO TTKPRESTIG SRTRANSFIN

BAJAJHLDNG WIPRO TATACOFFEE

BHARATFIN 25-Oct BAJAJTEMPO VBL

FORBESGOK BHARTIARTL VGUARD

HEXAWARE BHEL YESBANK

IBREALEST BIOCON

IDFCBANK CEATLTD

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

11

DATA & EVENTS

COMPANY Q2FY19 YOY (%) QOQ (%)

Sales (Rs Cr)

NP (Rs Cr)

Sales NP Sales NP

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd 816.3 100.8 -2.4 -22.7 11.0 13.7

Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd 1286.3 122.0 10.7 -15.6 -5.9 -12.8

Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd 1127.1 200.1 42.8 64.6 30.7 121.1

Oriental Hotels Ltd 81.8 78.7 -6.3 2406.1 0.8 -2298.0

Inox Leisure Ltd 365.3 12.0 17.4 2.6 -12.0 -67.6

Kalyani Steels Ltd 386.0 28.6 22.4 7.0 18.9 1.8

Manali Petrochemicals Ltd 183.5 16.8 24.2 83.5 3.6 5.2

CCL Products (India) Ltd 214.0 28.2 -27.8 9.7 -27.3 -28.6

Lumax Industries Ltd 517.8 20.9 36.4 0.5 4.3 4.1

Hatsun Agro Product Ltd 1187.1 38.3 11.9 0.1 -3.9 1.1

Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd 2245.6 210.0 38.5 67.4 9.7 4.8

Hindustan Zinc Ltd 4777.0 1815.0 -10.0 -28.7 -10.0 -5.4

PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss

RESULTS ANNOUNCED AFTER MARKET HOURS

COMPANY Q2FY19 YOY (%) QOQ (%)

Sales (Rs Cr)

NP (Rs Cr)

Sales NP Sales NP

Can Fin Homes Ltd 421.0 76.8 9.7 7.5 3.8 -0.6

Genus Power Infrastructures Ltd 223.4 12.4 34.3 38.5 -6.4 -14.0

Asian Paints Ltd 3914.2 481.5 -8.2 -18.9 -10.8 -15.7

PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss

RESULTS ANNOUNCED DURING MARKET HOURS

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

12

SUPPORT - RESISTANCE

LIST OF NIFTY STOCKS

COMPANY CLOSE R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2

NIFTY 50 10245 10477 10361 10293 10177 10108

ADANIPORTS 319 333 326 318 310 302

ASIANPAINT 1197 1268 1232 1212 1176 1156

AXISBANK 562 578 570 564 556 550

BAJAJ-AUTO 2554 2620 2587 2542 2509 2464

BAJAJFINSV 5270 5634 5452 5329 5147 5025

BAJFINANCE 2120 2271 2196 2143 2068 2015

BHARTIARTL 289 299 294 285 281 272

BPCL 271 293 282 276 265 259

CIPLA 633 647 640 634 626 620

COALINDIA 276 284 280 277 273 271

DRREDDY 2525 2621 2573 2535 2487 2448

EICHERMOT 22497 23012 22755 22302 22045 21592

GAIL 342 358 350 345 338 333

GRASIM 854 897 876 864 842 830

HCLTECH 974 1004 989 973 958 942

HDFC 1663 1708 1685 1667 1645 1627

HDFCBANK 1998 2034 2016 2002 1985 1971

HEROMOTOCO 2740 2807 2774 2732 2699 2658

HINDALCO 224 235 229 225 220 216

HINDPETRO 210 221 216 213 207 204

HINDUNILVR 1584 1604 1594 1580 1570 1557

IBULHSGFIN 712 780 746 705 671 629

ICICIBANK 328 338 333 325 320 311

INDUSINDBK 1467 1675 1571 1496 1392 1317

INFRATEL 265 272 268 264 261 257

INFY 681 704 692 683 671 662

IOC 129 137 133 131 127 125

ITC 289 296 292 290 286 284

JSWSTEEL 355 375 365 359 349 343

KOTAKBANK 1164 1242 1203 1180 1141 1119

LT 1206 1227 1216 1208 1198 1190

M&M 732 755 743 737 725 719

MARUTI 6827 7001 6914 6818 6731 6635

NTPC 165 171 168 165 162 159

ONGC 156 164 160 158 154 151

POWERGRID 189 192 190 189 188 187

RELIANCE 1063 1136 1100 1078 1042 1021

SBIN 260 268 264 262 258 255

SUNPHARMA 607 622 615 609 601 596

TATAMOTORS 171 179 175 173 168 166

TATASTEEL 545 569 557 549 537 530

TCS 1900 1930 1915 1901 1886 1872

TECHM 679 703 691 678 666 653

TITAN 776 805 790 782 768 759

ULTRACEMCO 3467 3656 3561 3504 3409 3352

UPL 633 663 648 637 622 611

VEDL 213 225 219 213 207 202

WIPRO 321 330 326 323 318 316

YESBANK 213 229 221 215 207 201

ZEEL 446 468 457 451 439 433

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

13

PCG TEAM

Name DESIGNATION EMAIL ID

Mr. Vinod Sharma Head, PCG & Market Strategy [email protected]

Mr. Devarsh Vakil Head, Advisory [email protected]

Mr. Nandish Shah Derivative Analyst [email protected]

Mr. Vinay Rajani Technical Analyst [email protected]

Mr. Kushal Rughani Fundamental Analyst [email protected]

Ms. Kinnari Patel Junior Analyst [email protected]

Ms. Nisha Sankhala Junior Analyst [email protected]

Mr. Dilip Parmar Currency Analyst [email protected]

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