hugh possingham plus a cast of many the ecology centre the university of queensland australia the...
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Hugh Possingham plus a cast of manyThe Ecology Centre
The University of Queensland
Australia
www.ecology.uq.edu.au
www.uq.edu.au/spatialecology
the ecology centreuniversity of queensland
australiawww.uq.edu.au/spatialecology
Conservation biology:
what is the problem?
Most of the spatial ecology lab (www.uq.edu.au/spatialecology)
Rational decision-making is critical to the future of the discipline
The examples presented generalise to every problem I have heard
the ecology centreuniversity of queensland
australiawww.uq.edu.au/spatialecology
Message
What shall I do with my money?
Species Prob of extinction
Cost to secure
Prob of success
Polar bear
40%, V 5 30%
Panda bear
90%, CE 20 50%
Koala bear
30%, V 5 100%
A plant 60%, E 10 50%
Which is the highest priority species?
• How threatened is it, V, E or CE? That determines priority right?
• That is not a properly posed problem, it is a question that has caused us to waste a lot of time and money – it has no objective!
• A question with an objective: How can I spend my money so I maximise the number of species secured?
Cost efficiency
Species Prob of extinction
Cost to secure, C
Prob of success,P
Polar bear
40%, V 5 30%
Panda bear
90%, CE 20 50%
Koala bear
10%, NT 5 100%
A plant 60%, E 10 50%
P/C
= expected benefit /cost
0.06
0.03
0.20
0.05
Oops, sorry wrong problem
• Spend my money so I minimise the number of species I lose
• The biodiversity benefit, B, from securing the species is the benefit above and beyond what would have happened = prob of extinction
Cost efficiency
Species Prob of extinction
B
Cost to secure, C
Prob of success,P
Polar bear
40%, V 5 30%
Panda bear
90%, CE 20 50%
Koala bear
10%, NT 5 100%
A plant 60%, E 10 50%
B*P/C
= expected benefit /cost
0.024
0.025
0.020
0.030
Oops, sorry wrong problem
• Spend my money so I minimise the number of species I lose taking into account their value: their taxonomic uniqueness, or how much I would like to cuddle them.
• Easy, multiply the biodiversity benefit by that value and recalculate
• Why is this the optimal approach, cant I use a scoring system?
Scoring system
Species Prob of extinction
B
Cost to secure, C
Prob of success,P
Polar bear
40%, V 5 30%
Panda bear
90%, CE 20 50%
Koala bear
10%, NT 5 100%
A plant 60%, E 10 50%
2
4
1
3
2
3
5
3
4
2
4
3
Total score
8
9
10
9
Do you think scoring is rational?
• Is Force = mass + acceleration?• What is the cost efficiency of buying 20kg of
bananas for $10.00?• Scoring system are wrong: there are rational and
irrational ways of combining these numbers• Say after me: Scoring Systems Suck
– Liana Joseph Thursday 14:30– Possingham et al TREE 2002– Mace et al 2006
• Proof of triage
Where and when should we invest $ for reservation to conserve biodiversity?
Kerrie Wilson, Michael Bode, Marissa McBride
© "Hotspots Revisited", Conservation International 2004© "Hotspots Revisited", Conservation International 2004
Brooks et al Science 7 July 2006:Vol. 313. no. 5783, pp. 58 - 61
Global Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
Maps of the nine global biodiversity conservation priority templates: CE, crisis ecoregions (21); BH, biodiversity hot spots [(11), updated by (39)]; EBA, endemic bird areas (15); CPD, centers of plant diversity (12); MC, megadiversity countries (13); G200, global 200 ecoregions [(16), updated by (54)]; HBWA, high-biodiversity wilderness areas (14); FF, frontier forests (19); LW, last of the wild (20).
Prioritising where and when money is spent
Explain the problem
Describe the innovative science
Show how the science solves the problem
Something provocative
Funding agencies and partners
The problem (in words)
• How should we allocate scarce resources within or between different parts of the globe to conserve biodiversity?
• There are many priority setting schemes based on scores and rules and a lot of biodiversity data
• The problem is – nobody bothered to state the problem – what are these priority regions for, my annual holiday?
Existing hotspots answer the question of where biodiversity levels are highest and where threat was, and probably is, high
Like threatened species lists, Hotspots Like threatened species lists, Hotspots were never intended to account forwere never intended to account for
1.1. The cost of actionThe cost of action2.2. How returns for conservation How returns for conservation
investment change through time, or investment change through time, or 3.3. The dynamic nature of landscapes and The dynamic nature of landscapes and
the existence of uncertaintythe existence of uncertainty
All of these things are needed to get you All of these things are needed to get you the biggest bang for your buckthe biggest bang for your buck
Asia-Pacific Region
A dynamic system
Formulating the RIGHT problem…
• Objective: minimise the loss of biodiversity within a set of priority areas, given an ongoing loss of habitat, and a fixed budget for conservation investment
• Management decision: how many land parcels to reserve in the different priority areas at a given time
• Constraint: the annual budget
Formulating the RIGHT problem…
• System properties: endemic species richness, rate of forest conversion, and cost of land acquisition
• System dynamics: parcels are subject to a annual conversion rate, budget is allocated to one or more regions, which increases the reserved area and decreases conservation returns with time
• Uncertainty associated with the forest conversion data is incorporated by representing it as a stochastic process.
Formulating the RIGHT problem…
Proportional forest loss, l1
Reservation with fractional allocation u1
Proportional forest loss, l2
Reservation with fractional allocation u2
Budget, B
R1
A1 R2
L1
A2
L2
The Data
Ii
iy
Priority Area Number endemic birds
Conversion rate (%/yr)
Cost (US$ km-2 year-1)
Sulawesi 67 -2.4 76
Java/Bali 24 -1.7 782
Sumatra 18 -2.3 95
Southern Peninsular Malaysia
4 -1.2 2746
Borneo 29 -2.1 110
Solution Method
• Stochastic dynamic programming will give optimal results but is limited to low-dimensional problems
• Simpler heuristics– Maximise short term gain of species
(ignores threat)– Minimise short term loss of species
(accounts for threat)
Multimedia
To the whiteboarda multimedia talk
Iiiy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent of total area
Nu
mb
er o
f en
dem
ic s
pec
ies
Sumatra
Borneo
Ii
iy
Results
• The minimisation of short term loss closely approximates the optimal solution
• Answer– Spend all your money in Sulawesi until nothing left
to do there
– Then Sumatra, then Java/Bali, then Borneo
– Finally Peninsular Malaysia
Ii
iy
What if we had useda simple-minded scoring approach?
Table 1 Data for the five priority areas
Priority Area
Area(km2)
Forested area (km2)
in 1997
Reserved area (km2) in 2003
# endemic
bird species
Conversion rate, % yr-
Cost US$ km-1
Rank Rank Rank
Sumatra 475746 164303 84901 18 4 2.3 2 95 2
Borneo 735372 426975 173989 29 2 2.1 3 110 3
Sulawesi 187530 79509 68150 67 1 2.4 1 76 1
Java/Bali 138787 19464 8770 24 3 1.7 4 782 4
Malaysia 131598 58500 29221 4 5 1.2 5 2746 53
24
Summary
• We properly formulated the problem
• Found simple heuristics that perform well
• Tells you not only how much to spend where, but when!
• Scoring systems provide an inefficient answer – are they really that bad?
Ii
iy
Can I do this for all the world’s hotspots?
Michael Bode, Kerrie Wilson,Tom Brooks, Will Turner, Marissa McBride, Emma Underwood
In pressrejection
Considerations • The world’s 34 biodiversity hotspots
• Take into account– Threat (rate of conversion)– Endemic species (number of)
• Mammals, Amphibian, Birds, Reptiles,Freshwater Fish, Tiger Beetles, Vascular Plants, All vertebrates
– Cost
Where should I put my $310 million over the next 20 years?
© "Hotspots Revisited", Conservation International 2004© "Hotspots Revisited", Conservation International 2004
Some of data
We could use some inane medieval scoring method?
Unpublished – Bode et al
Take home
• Money matters a lot more that the other parameters, and to a lesser extent % reserved, threat and endemic species richness
• With costs we allocate funds consistently to seven or eight regions relatively independently of the taxa used to set priorities: – Tropical Andes– Guinea Forests of West Africa– East Afromontane– East Melanesian Islands– Madagascar …
• What group of species you use does not matter too much!
New stuff
• What if we built the world’s reserve systems again from scratch? We could achieve so much more with same investment – not just hotspots
Hoekstra et al.• But reservation is only part of conservation – what if we
allowed different sorts of actions like weed control, revegetation, …
Wilson, Shaw, Underwood et al. – PLoS in press
• More examples of ROI – Murdoch et al• Risk and uncertainty – McBride et al• All part of general Return On Investment/Cost
efficiency thinking
Scoring systems helpline
If you still feel you need to use scoring systems and you need confidential help:
Ring +61 7 3365 9766 – 24 hours a day
Email [email protected]
Confidentiality guaranteed
Special courses: step program where we still allow some scoring where appropriate
Working on more slogans to help you go cold turkey on scoring systems
Properly formulated problems and practically perfect in every possible way
Possingham is a patronising pontificating p…
Can be applied to any decision making
• Key biodiversity areas, KBAs• Regional management plans• The answer can be done on a
spreadsheet
Cost Efficiency = expected benefit/cost• Cost benefit analysis?• Multi-criteria decision analysis?• Does it cause change?
Quick Exit
Australian biodiversity priorities
Dear Hugh,
Given limited resources what should I do now to minimise Australia’s net loss of biodiversity over the next 100 years, yours faithfully,
John Howard
Prime Minister of Australia
Species saved per $ spent
• List continental scale management options• Estimate cost• Calculate species saved
– Convert birds or plants to all species – 1 bird = 20 plants, one plant = 20 other species
• Guess socio-political feasibility• Evaluate collateral benefit (carbon fixed)• See “Setting biodiversity priorities”
http://www.dest.gov.au/science/pmseic/meetings/8thmeeting.htm
Prevent broadscale clearing of high biodiversity areas in QLD
Factor Value
No. of species saved 5,280
Area 2,270,400 ha
Cost/ha $88
Total cost $200m
No. species saved/$1m 26
Collateral benefit $4,008m
Collateral benefit/total cost 20
Protect the health of rivers that are least disturbed
Factor Value
No. of species saved 2,940
Total cost $30m
No. species saved/$1m 98
Collateral benefit $390m
Collateral benefit/total cost 13
Mechanical control of feral predators
Factor Value
No. of species saved 44
Total cost $22.5m
No. species saved/$1m 2
Collateral benefit $15 m
Collateral benefit/total cost 0.7
Process
• List the options– Stop land clearing in QLD– Salinity management in key catchments in WA– Biocontrol of major weeds– Early eradication, better quarantine
• Work out cost and species saved• Leave collateral benefits as a separate currency• Synthesise, rank and sell to PM and cabinet
Conclusion
• Is this useful in the real world? We used cost-efficiency thinking to deliver a national conservation plan for Australia which has helped save 50+ million hectares, declaration of wild rivers, rezoned GBR …
• What am I if I do conservation and I don’t include $ in my decision making?
• Making smart conservation decisions is largely a problem of problem definition and logic: getting something done is largely a problem of marketing, timing, flirting and buying people, like me, drinks
How much money should I spend on monitoring?What is the purpose of monitoring?How should I allocate funds to managing spatially structured threatened species, or weeds, or a harvestable wildlife species?When do I know a species is eradicated?What are optimal disturbance regimes?www.ecology.uq.edu
the ecology centreuniversity of queensland
australiawww.uq.edu.au/spatialecology
Other lab activities
Spatial Ecology Lab at UQ: quantitative ecologists
Kerrie Wilson
Josie Carwardine
Liana Joseph
Michael Bode
+ Marissa McBride + Matt Watts + Tara Martin + Tracey Regan + David Pavlacky + Justine Murray + Carissa Klein + Eddie Game + others
Emily Nicholson
Hamish McCallum Peter
Baxter
Eve McDonald-Madden
Hiroyuki Yokomizo
Reinaldo Lourival
Karen Hurley
Maria Beger
Australian Research Council
Partners/funders
Conservation Letters
