hur kan elsystemet klara variationer från mycket vindkraft?
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Hur kan elsystemet klara variationer från mycket vindkraft?. Lisa Göransson Chalmers. Every type of capacity can be considered as potentially regulating capacity. 20 % wind power is managed by the units in place . Include cycling costs in running costs - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Hur kan elsystemet klara variationer från mycket vindkraft?
Lisa Göransson
Chalmers
Every type of capacity can be considered as potentially regulating capacity.
• 20 % wind power is managed by the units in place.
• Include cycling costs in running costs
• Reduced hours of operation for base load units 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
142
083
912
5816
7720
9625
1529
3433
5337
7241
9146
1050
2954
4858
6762
8667
0571
2475
4379
6283
81
Shar
e of
max
out
put d
urin
g ye
ar (%
)
2000
2005
2012
50% of max output during >50% of the year
50% of max output during <20% of the year
Utilization of central power plants
~25%
337
343
349
355
361
367
373
379
385
391
397
403
409
415
421
427
433
439
445
451
457
463
469
475
481
487
493
499
0
5
10
15
20
25
Northern Poland winter 2012
pv
offwind
onwind
gas
bio
coal
lignite
waste
demand
Time [3h]
GW
337
343
349
355
361
367
373
379
385
391
397
403
409
415
421
427
433
439
445
451
457
463
469
475
481
487
493
499
0
5
10
15
20
25
Northern Poland winter 2020
pv
offwind
onwind
gas
bio
coal
lignite
waste
demand
Time [3h]
[G
W]
vRES in Europe by 2020
• Some regions will have much more than 20 % vRES by 2020.– National allocation plans– Wind conditions– Grid Bottlenecks
• vRES deliver 17% of European electricity demand.
• Variations can be managed by the system in place through transmission investments and trade.
Nordic system 2020
• Low wind share in Nordic countries. High wind share in neighboring regions.
• Nordic export is reduced during windy hours.
• Swedish annual export decrease.
• Nuclear full load hours are reduced.
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nordic export 2012
Nordic Export 2020
Wind generation in neighboring regions
One week in autumn [3h]
[GW
h/3
h]
vRES beyond 2020• Still need for
capacity but few hours of operation
• High costs for those few hours give large price fluctuations
• Tough climate targets give less options and higher costs
• Motivate DSM, storage, co-generation etc.