hurricane dorian briefing - cvhc · 9/3/2019 · situation overview hurricane dorian hazard...
TRANSCRIPT
HURRICANE DORIANBRIEFING
www.weather.gov/akq
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
NWSWakefieldVA
5:30 AM EDT
Prepared by: WFO Wakefield, VA
What has changed: Increased confidence that eastern VA and northeast NC will see significant impacts from Dorian.
The information contained within is time-sensitive. Do not use after 6:00 PM EDT Tuesday.
By 6:00 PM EDT Tuesday.Next Briefing:
Disclaimer:
9/3/2019 5:34 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Situation OverviewHurricane Dorian
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Flooding Rain
There is the potential for significant
rainfall, but remains dependent on exact
storm track
Eastern VA and Northeast NC Thursday and Friday
Wind
There is the potential for tropical storm
force winds, especially along and near the
coast.
Eastern VA, Northeast NC, and
Southeast MD
Thursday and Friday
Storm Surge/
Inundation
While it is still too early for any specific
storm surge values, some locations have
the potential to see moderate to major
tidal flooding.
Anywhere along the coast, but most
likely along lower Chesapeake Bay,
southeast Virginia, and northeast
North Carolina.
Thursday into Saturday
Tornado
Limited to no potential for Tornadoes
Marine
Very dangerous marine conditions are
likely
All coastal waters/nearshore waters,
Chesapeake Bay, Sounds and lower
tidal rivers
High rip current risk lasting
through the week. Other
marine threats developing
Thursday into Saturday
9/3/2019 5:34 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone.
Immediate Concerns for the Local Area A risk for high rip currents will continue through the
week into next weekend.
Long Term Concerns for the Local Area Increasing confidence that we will see direct impacts
as early as Thursday morning with impacts most likely later Thursday through Friday.
Confidence is increasing with Dorian’s forecast track but changes are still possible.
Key Takeaways Do not focus on the track alone. Impacts will
occur well away from the center.
Review plans and begin preparations now, as there is still time over the next couple of days.
Monitor forecasts and seek information from trusted, official sources.
Situation OverviewHurricane Dorian
9/3/2019 5:34 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Threat LevelsHurricane Dorian
Winds SurgeRainfall/
FloodingTornadoes
Incre
asi
ng T
hre
at
For information on specific hazards in this area,
please go to https://www.weather.gov/akq/tropical
Moderate Moderate
None
Moderate
9/3/2019 5:35 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
The threat for tropical storm force winds
has remained nearly steady across Eastern
VA, Northeast NC, and Southeast MD.
The most likely time of arrival of tropical
storm force winds is late Thursday or
Thursday night based on the current
NHC track.
Monitor forecasts and trends with future
updates.
TS Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Dorian
9/3/2019 5:35 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
50 Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
The threat for 50 knot winds has
remained nearly steady and is highest
along the immediate coasts of Southeast
VA and Northeast NC.
Probability of 50 knot winds is likely to
increase as arrival time gets closer.
Monitor forecasts and trends with future
updates.
Hurricane Dorian
9/3/2019 5:35 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
The earliest reasonable time of
arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds
for Northeast NC and Eastern VA is
early Thursday morning.
However, the most likely time this
area could see Tropical Storm Force
Winds will be late Thursday or
Thursday night.
Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival Hurricane Dorian
9/3/2019 5:35 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Confidence is increasing that portions
of Eastern VA and Northeast NC will
see locally heavy rainfall.
Exact amounts will be dependent on
the track and speed of Dorian.
Timing for potential heavy rain is
from Thursday into Friday.
Potential Storm Total RainfallHurricane Dorian
Note: Confidence is increasing that portions of the area will see locally heavy rainfall.
9/3/2019 5:35 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
There will be a High Rip
Current Risk at area beaches on
Tuesday as large swells from
Dorian arrive.
A High Rip Current Risk is
expected through this week.
Increased Rip Current RiskHurricane Dorian
The latest surf zone forecast can be found at:http://www.weather.gov/beach/akq
9/3/2019 5:35 AM www.weather.gov/akq
Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Key Take-AwaysHurricane Dorian
Confidence is MODERATE that the event will occur
Confidence is LOW regarding exact impacts
In addition to strong rip currents and increasingly rough surf, marine conditions will likely become
hazardous to dangerous due to increasing waves and the potential for tropical storm force winds
Thursday and Friday.
Confidence is increasing that portions of Eastern VA and Northeast NC will see locally heavy rainfall, but
exact amounts will be dependent on the track and speed of Dorian.
Tornado potential is low to none based on the current storm track.
There is the potential for surge and tidal flooding, potentially moderate to major in places, late
Thursday through Friday in the Bay and along the coast.
There is potential for tropical storm force winds across Eastern VA, Northeast NC, and Southeast MD.
The most likely time of arrival is late Thursday or Thursday night based on the current NHC track.
www.weather.gov/akqNWSWakefieldVA
AKQ Tropical Briefing Webpage: https://www.weather.gov/akq/Tropical
Web: http://weather.gov/akq
Phone: (757) 899-4200
E-mail: [email protected]
Facebook: NWSWakefieldVA
Twitter: NWSWakefieldVA
YouTube: NWSWakefieldVA
Next Briefing:When: By 6:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Method: E-mail
Contact and Next Briefing Information