hurricane lecture for kma ed szoke 1 october 20, 2004 overview of 2004 atlantic hurricane season ed...
TRANSCRIPT
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
1October 20, 2004
Overview of 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Ed Szoke* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory
Forecast Research DivisionLAPS Group
Boulder, Colorado
*Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
2October 20, 2004
Outline
● Overview of the very active Atlantic hurricane season of 2004
● Long IR loop and other interesting images found here● Examination of Jeanne on the AWIPS
workstation with a localization to the Melbourne, Florida WFO
● KMA typhoons
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
3October 20, 2004
Montage of the 4 storms that hit Florida
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
4October 20, 2004
3 storms crossing near the same point in central Florida
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
5October 20, 2004
Tracks of Atlantic 2004 named storms (16 total)
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
6October 20, 2004
Saffir Simpson Scale and color code used in tracks
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
7October 20, 2004
16 named storms and 6 major hurricanes in 2004 was way above normal
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
8October 20, 2004
Names and strength of 2004 Atlantic storms
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
9October 20, 2004
Track of Bonnie (At landfall 35 knots/1005 mb) 35 1005
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
10October 20, 2004
Track of Charley (At landfall 120 knots/941 mb/Category 4)35 1005
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
11October 20, 2004
Track of Frances (At landfall 90 knots/951 mb/Category 2)35 1005
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
12October 20, 2004
Track of Ivan (At landfall 115 knots/943 mb/Category 4)At this site is some great high resolution visible imagery of Ivan35 1005
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
13October 20, 2004
Track of Jeanne (At landfall 105 knots/953 mb/Category 3)35 1005
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
14October 20, 2004
Floridians tried to keep a sense of humor through all this....
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
15October 20, 2004
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
16October 20, 2004
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
17October 20, 2004
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
18October 20, 2004
Hurricane forecasting in the U.S.: Who does what?
● National scale hurricane watches and warnings are done by the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami, Florida ● Local offices incorporate these into their forecasts
● Map of Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
19October 20, 2004
TPC Forecasts
● Four times per day main products issued (every 6 h)● 3 day graphic of hurricane track● 5 day graphic of hurricane track● Strike probability graphic and statement● Public statement● Forecast advisory (text)● Technical discussion
● With updates in between ●Updates to Public statement
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
20October 20, 2004
TPC Forecasts - Example of 3-day graphic
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
21October 20, 2004
TPC Forecasts - Example of 5-day graphic
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
22October 20, 2004
TPC Forecasts - Example of strike probability graphic
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
23October 20, 2004
WFO Forecasts – Example of GFE created graphic
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
24October 20, 2004
WFO Forecasts – Example of GFE created graphic
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
25October 20, 2004
WFO Forecasts – Example of GFE created graphic-Wind threat
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
26October 20, 2004
Why was Florida hit so much? Is it a “message” for our next election?
Hurricane lecture for KMAEd Szoke
27October 20, 2004
Was Japan the “Florida” of the West Pacific?
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28October 20, 2004
Now let's look at AWIPS and Jeanne