Hvorfor er det så vanskelig å få til en klimaavtale som monner?

Steinar Andresen (FNI)Bjart Holtsmark (SSB)Ole Røgeberg (Frisch)

Hvordan ligger vi an?

Necessary factors for a functioning climate treaty

Common understanding of what and how much

needs to be done

Incentives to join and accept treaty targets

Incentives to comply with

treaty targets

Incentives to enforce treaty

compliance

Reduced global

warming

Necessary factors for a functioning climate treaty

Common understanding of what and how much

needs to be done

Incentives to join and accept treaty targets

Incentives to comply with

treaty targets

Incentives to enforce treaty

compliance

Reduced global

warming

• Cognitive flaws de-dramatize the problem• Possible future technological advances induce

procrastination• Decades-long lag of actions on climate system favors

adaptation over mitigation

Klimaproblemet er ”et badekar”

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1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

Global CO2-emissions w ith business-as-usual

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CO2-concentration w ith business-as-usual

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Temperature w ith business-as-usual

Stabilized emission level

Stabilized emission level

Stabilized emission level

Future progress ”may” solve or make it cheaper to solve the problem

• Technology/cost– Second generation biofuel (cellulosic)– Third generation biofuel (algae)– Geoengineering– Fusion– Electric cars (esp. battery technology)– Carbon capture and storage– Solar– Wind

• Better treaties– Globally traded carbon quotas – Quotas for ”emerging economies”

Politiske insentiver er rettet mot tilpasning/geo-engineering

• Tilpasning/geoengineering– Bedrer dagens problemer på kort sikt

• Klimakutt– Har kostnader i dag, men forhindrer ”bare”

ytterligere problemer om flere tiår

Ingen land er store nok til at de kan løse problemet på egen hånd

The effect of a single country’s emission reductions. The case of China, India and USA*

Emission reductions from BAU

Reduced temperature from BAU. Degrees Celsius

China India USA

2025 -20 % -0.01 -0.00 -0.01

2050 -60 % -0.07 -0.03 -0.06

2100 -95 % -0.23 -0.12 -0.17

* The table shows the result of three different model simulations, where each model simulation measures the effect of a single country’s emission reduction, , , and the , respectively.

Necessary factors for a functioning climate treaty

Common understanding of what and how much

needs to be done

Incentives to join and accept treaty targets

Incentives to comply with

treaty targets

Incentives to enforce treaty

compliance

Reduced global

warming

• Free-rider problem: No nations with incentives for unilateral abatement

• Cost allocation problem: Most future emissions expected from today’s poor

70% of ”business as usual” emissions need to be cut

Total CO2-emissions

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Industrialized countries

Developing countries

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Global CO2 emissions in developing and industrialized countries in the IPCC reference scenario A1 MESSAGE (grey curves), and in a scenario consistent with a target (colored curves).

With emission ”cost” of $50 – the total burden to be allocated is ~4 x current global GDP

With emission ”cost” at $50 per ton CO2, total burden to be

allocated equals ~4 x current global GDP

Most emission reductions need to come from emerging economies

Global CO2 emissions in developing and industrialized countries in the IPCC reference scenario A1 MESSAGE (grey curves), and in a scenario consistent with a target (colored curves).

Total CO2-emissions

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Industrialized countries

Developing countries

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Global CO2 emissions in developing and industrialized countries in the IPCC reference scenario A1 MESSAGE (grey curves), and in a scenario consistent with a target (colored curves).

Total CO2-emissions

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Gig

a to

nnes

CO

2

Industrialized countries

Developing countries

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Necessary factors for a functioning climate treaty

Common understanding of what and how much

needs to be done

Incentives to join and accept treaty targets

Incentives to comply with

treaty targets

Incentives to enforce treaty

compliance

Reduced global

warming

• Treaty needs to permanently alter national incentives

• Enforcement must be in the interest of the enforcers

Konsekvent gjennomført klimapolitikk på sikt krever at land er ”låst fast” av permanent endrede insentiver

• Avtaleverk med tilstrekkelig straff for utslipp utover det avtalte

• Medlemsland som godtar å binde seg til strafferegime

• Medlemsland som velger å straffe land som bryter avtalen

Men hva med Kyoto.... ?

Kyoto: Utslippskuttene skyldes ikke avtalen – men østblokkens kollaps

Spain

New Zealand

Ireland

Canada

Austria

Italy

Japan

Luxembourg

Switzerland

France

Sweden

Great Britain

Czech Republic

Hungary

Russia

Bulgaria

Lithuania

Estonia

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Actual emission changes from 1990 to 2006 (in %)

Break up of Soviet Republic + reunification of Germany

Land utenfor østblokken slipper ut mer enn målet (før kvotekjøp osv)

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Emission targets

Emission change(1990-2006)

France, Sweden, Monaco and Great

Britain

Kyoto ”straffe-mekanismen” er uten betydning

• Slipper du ut for mye blir dette +33% lagt til i neste periodes mål

• MEN! – Neste periodes mål avtales med det enkelte land…– Du kan hoppe av avtalen og unngå straffen (jamfør

Canada)

Backup

People’s ”intuition” makes the climate problem seem less severe

Typical response: pattern matching

GDP catch-up and demographics major part of climate problem

Figure 3. Population in developing and industrialized countries 1950 – 2100. UN population database and projections, medium scenario. Billions.

Figure 4. GDP (PPP) in IPCC’s scenario A1 Message. Trillion USD (1990-prices).

Population

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Developing countries

GDP

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Developing countries

Industrializedcountries