hydrology calibration
DESCRIPTION
Hydrology Calibration. Phase 5. Calibrators. USGS-MD Jeff Raffensperger Sarah Martucci Joe Vrabel Angelica Gutierrez Gary Fisher. Calibrators. USGS-VA Doug Moyer Alan Simpson Jen Krstolic ICPRB Ross Mandel Julie Kiang. Calibrators. CBP Sara Brandt Jing Wu Kate Hopkins - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Hydrology Calibration
Phase 5
![Page 2: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Calibrators
• USGS-MD– Jeff Raffensperger– Sarah Martucci– Joe Vrabel– Angelica Gutierrez– Gary Fisher
![Page 3: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Calibrators
• USGS-VA– Doug Moyer– Alan Simpson– Jen Krstolic
• ICPRB– Ross Mandel– Julie Kiang
![Page 4: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Calibrators
• CBP– Sara Brandt– Jing Wu– Kate Hopkins– Lewis Linker– Gary Shenk
![Page 5: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Status from April
• Reaching point of diminishing returns with hand calibration
• Better and more consistent overall than phase4
• Consistent with other HSPF calibrations in the literature
• Still a few small areas and issues that need attention in hydrology
![Page 6: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Success with Hand Calibration
• Generally better calibration than previous model
• Discovered sensitive parameters
• Discovered appropriate measures of performance
![Page 7: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Phase 5 vs Phase 4 Efficiencies
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9Phase 4
Pha
se 5
![Page 8: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
INFILT AGWR INTFW IRC AGWETP UZSN LZSN KVARYmin 0.009 0.867 0.5 0.12 0.0000 0.25 4.0 0.010th 0.041 0.954 1.0 0.25 0.0000 0.50 5.0 0.025th 0.045 0.965 1.0 0.30 0.0070 0.50 5.0 0.0median 0.072 0.974 1.0 0.38 0.0500 0.50 5.0 0.075th 0.117 0.979 2.5 0.46 0.0500 0.50 5.0 0.090th 0.176 0.983 3.5 0.60 0.0500 0.50 7.5 1.0max 0.337 0.995 5.0 0.85 0.1176 1.35 13.5 3.0
Individually Calibrated Parameters
But . . .
![Page 9: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Surface Runoff in inches/yearBut . . .
![Page 10: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Individual basin AGWETP calibration
But . . .
![Page 11: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
But . . .
• Some land segments were not calibrated since they supply no monitored river
• Ratios of parameters between land uses not preserved
• Other established rules not followed
![Page 12: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The good news:
Overall BiasWinter / Summer BalanceBaseflow / Stormflow BalanceQuickflow Recession IndexBaseflow Recession IndexPeak Bias
land evapLZSNINFILTIRCAGWRINTFW
Calibration Measure HSPF Parameter
![Page 13: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Iterative Calibration
• Started with manual calibration– Enforced land use ratios– Enforced min and max
• Used knowledge and statistics developed during the manual calibration
• Assumed sensitivities linking parameters to statistics
![Page 14: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Sensitivities
Bias - land evap - LE = 2/(2-Bias)Wstat/Stat - LZSN - LZSN = (3-S/W)/2Bstat - INFILT - INFILT = 1/BstatQaveRI - IRC - IRC = 2/(1+QaveRI)BaveRI - AGWR - AGWR = 2/(1+BaveRI)Pbias/Vpbias - INTFW - INTFW = 1 + PorV/2
![Page 15: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The Ratio Rules
land use infilt intfw lzsn irc agwr agwetpfor 1.6 1.25 1 1 1 6grs 1 1 1 1 1 2pur 0.8 1 1 1 1 2
min 0.0125 1 12 0.35 0.92 0.0005max 0.25 4 12 0.85 0.99 0.05
land use uzsn factor vs lzsncrp 0.14for 0.12grs 0.1pur 0.1
crop monthly uzsn factorJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.95 1 1 0.8 0.7 0.65
ratio to crop
Crop SURO between 1 and 6
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Link Land to RiverCounty A
County B
50k acres
50k acres
Station 1
Station 2
Basis: Percent of basin made up of each county
County A is:100% of station 1 50% of station 2
The ‘importance’ ratio is 2:1, so county A uses 2/3 of the station1 parameters and 1/3 station2 parameters
Ignored ‘importances’ less that 10%
Assigned ‘orphan’ counties to ‘siblings’
![Page 17: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
10% assumptioncounties controlled
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Watershed Size
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April 1 Bias
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
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Iterative Calibration Bias
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
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Baseflow / Stormflow Stat
Fraction of flow that is baseflow (simulated)Fraction of flow that is baseflow (observed)
Bstat = 1 -
baseflow / total flow (observed)Bstat = 1 - baseflow / total flow (simulated)
stormflow / total flow (observed)Qstat = 1 - stormflow / total flow (simulated)
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April 1 Bstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
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Iterative Calibration Bstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
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April 1 Qstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
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Interative Calibration Qstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
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Baseflow / Stormflow Recession Statistic
average Simulated recession index average Observed recession index
Q rec Index = 1 -
quick flow todayAverage Recession index = Average (
quick flow tomorrow )
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April 1 Average Baseflow Recession
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-48% -38% -28% -18% -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43%
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Iterative Calibration Average Baseflow Recession
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-48% -38% -28% -18% -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43%
![Page 28: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
April 1 Quickflow Recession Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
![Page 29: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Iterative Calibration Quickflow Recession Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
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Nash – Sutcliffe Model efficiency
(variance of errors) (variance of observed)
Computed for daily, log of daily, and monthly values.
1 -
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Reported values of N-S efficiency• Often reported, but little information on
‘standards’ of efficiency• Reported daily efficiencies 0.5 - 0.75• Reported daily log efficiencies 0.5 -
0.75• Reported Monthly efficiencies 0.7 – 0.8
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Efficiency as of April 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
![Page 33: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Efficiency of Iterative Calibration
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
![Page 34: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Reported values of N-S efficiency• Often reported, but little information on
‘standards’ of efficiency• Reported daily efficiencies 0.5 - 0.75• Reported daily log efficiencies 0.5 -
0.75• Reported Monthly efficiencies 0.7 – 0.8
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Efficiency of Logs as of April 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
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Efficiency of Logs of Iterative Calibration
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
![Page 37: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Reported values of N-S efficiency• Often reported, but little information on
‘standards’ of efficiency• Reported daily efficiencies 0.5 - 0.75• Reported daily log efficiencies 0.5 -
0.75• Reported Monthly efficiencies 0.7 – 0.8
![Page 38: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Efficiency of Monthly Flow as of Apr 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
![Page 39: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Efficiency of Monthly Flow of Iterative Calibration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
![Page 40: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
results
INFILT AGWR INTFW IRC AGWETP UZSN LZSN KVARYmin 0.009 0.867 0.5 0.12 0.0000 0.25 4.0 0.010th 0.041 0.954 1.0 0.25 0.0000 0.50 5.0 0.025th 0.045 0.965 1.0 0.30 0.0070 0.50 5.0 0.0median 0.072 0.974 1.0 0.38 0.0500 0.50 5.0 0.075th 0.117 0.979 2.5 0.46 0.0500 0.50 5.0 0.090th 0.176 0.983 3.5 0.60 0.0500 0.50 7.5 1.0max 0.337 0.995 5.0 0.85 0.1176 1.35 13.5 3.0
Hand calib
Iterative calib
![Page 41: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Results
• Used the knowledge gained during the individual calibration stage– Sensitive parameters– Important statistics
• Improved the calibration by applying the knowledge in a systematic way– More consistent parameterization– Better statistical calibration
![Page 42: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Remaining Questions
• How robust is this calibration– Sensitive to starting point?– Sensitive to rules of assigning land segments
to calibration stations?– Sensitive to rules governing parameters to
adjust?
![Page 43: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Efficiency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
hand calib
Effect of Starting Point
![Page 44: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Efficiency of logs
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
hand calib
Effect of Starting Point
![Page 45: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Total Bias
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
hand calib
Effect of Starting Point
![Page 46: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Efficiency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
accentuate Small
accentuate Large
Dow nstream small
Dow nstream large
Effect of River Calibration Statistic to Land Parameter Methodology
![Page 47: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Efficiency of logs
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
accentuate Small
accentuate Large
Dow nstream small
Dow nstream large
Effect of River Calibration Statistic to Land Parameter Methodology
![Page 48: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Total Bias
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
accentuate Small
accentuate Large
Dow nstream small
Dow nstream large
Effect of River Calibration Statistic to Land Parameter Methodology
![Page 49: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Efficiency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary and AG
AGWETP2
10% cepc
50% cepc
1.5 * cepc
2 * cepc
Effect of additional variables or different rules
![Page 50: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Efficiency of logs
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary and AG
AGWETP2
10% cepc
50% cepc
1.5 * cepc
2 * cepc
Effect of additional variables or different rules
![Page 51: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Total Bias
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary and AG
AGWETP2
10% cepc
50% cepc
1.5 * cepc
2 * cepc
Effect of additional variables or different rules
![Page 52: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
LZSN
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
![Page 53: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
AGWR
0.925
0.93
0.935
0.94
0.945
0.95
0.955
0.96
0.965
0.97
0.975
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
AGWR
![Page 54: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
INFILT
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iteratio
n
INFILT
![Page 55: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
INTFW
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
INTFW
![Page 56: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
IRC
0.39
0.4
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
IRC
![Page 57: Hydrology Calibration](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062816/568144cf550346895db19a04/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
AGWETP
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
AGWETP
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KVARY
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
KVARY
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Results of Sensitivity Tests
• Very stable and robust calibration
• Stable for parameters as well as results
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Today’s Product
• Near final version of hydrology, still need:
– Land use– Small hydrologic fixes for reservoirs, other
problem areas
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Comparison with phase 4
• Generally better than phase 4 from efficiency standpoint
• Phase 4 calibrated to match CFD and time series at these stations
• Phase 5 calibrated to match statistics other than efficiency
• Phase 5 mostly calibrated to smaller stations.
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