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M E M O R A N D U M TO: MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS FROM: BRIAN C. TRINGALI KEVIN HUDAK RE: RACE FOR CONGRESS TIED IN IOWA’S SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT DATE: SEPTEMBER 15, 2010 ______________________________________________________________________________ The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from our most recent survey of likely voters throughout the Second Congressional District of Iowa. The Tarrance Group was retained by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Miller-Meeks campaign for Congress to conduct a telephone survey among N=400 registered “likely” voters in the district. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +4.9%. Responses to the survey were gathered September 13-14, 2010. As we look nationwide, Republicans who ran in a tough 2008 cycle but have made the decision to run again are likely to get elected in 2010. Mariannette Miller-Meeks campaign in the Second Congressional District of Iowa is yet another example of the phenomenon. The race for Congress is now within the margin of error and if the election were held today Miller-Meeks would probably be elected. As with other re-match campaigns, Miller-Meeks is already well known in the district. Indeed, Miller-Meeks has a more positive image ratio than incumbent Democrat David Loebsack. This is before any contrast campaigning has begun.

Image Comparison Mariannette Miller-Meeks David Loebsack Aware 78% Aware 93% Favorable 36% Favorable 47% Unfavorable 17% Unfavorable 32% Ratio (2.1:1) Ratio (1.5:1)

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The best single question to understand how vulnerable an incumbent may be is the re-elect score. Respondents were asked if they think David Loebsack deserves to be re-elected or if it is time to give a new person the chance to do better. Loebsack is below the threshold level of 40% on this measure and more voters are interested in a new person (47%) than want to re-elect him (38%). The incumbent’s weakness translates directly to the ballot. The race appears to be tied, with Miller-Meeks already at 40% and Loebsack getting little more than his re-elect score at 41%. By definition, this is evidence of a vulnerable incumbent but in the current political environment, these undecided voters are a lot more likely to break for the challenger. Re-elect Score U.S. Congress Ballot Deserves re-election 38% Miller-Meeks 40% Unsure/depends 15% Loebsack 41% New person 47% Sicard 6% Undecided 13%

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