IAE’s energy technology trend in Japan

to 2050 and beyond

based on Times-Japan modelling analysis

The Institute of Applied Energy

Kazuhiro Tsuzuki

Task force team for energy technology perspectives

1

Contents

Introduction of IAE and Energy technologyperspective

Outline of the energy technology perspective

Results of model calculation and their implication

Mega-trend to 2050 and beyond

Role of Nuclear

Summary

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Introduction of IAE and Energy technology perspective

• IAE are promoting technology related research in broad energy areas with broad network developed among industry, academia and the government.

• Energy technology perspective has been issued almost once a five years.

• This year is 40 years anniversary and the perspective include wider area with model calculation GRAPE and TIMES-Japan.

These results will be presented at IAE symposium on Oct. 12.Full report will be issued with considering discussion in the symposium.

3

Outline of the energy technology perspectiveOutlook by various sourcesLong-term Energy Supply and DemandLong-term low carbon systemsParis agreement

Existing literaturesTechnology roadmapsTechnology scenarios…

Outline issues on energy technologies, R&D priorities

GRAPE, TIMES-Japan

Phase 1Evaluation of future energy systems

Phase 2Description of technology scenarios

Check assumptions

Sensitivity analysis

Quantitative information

Strategic long-term platform of IAE for solving energy technology issues

Power generation (Global)

Power generation (Japan)

4

TIMES-Japan Model

Energy system model using IEA/ETSAP’s TIMES frameworkEnergy system up to 2050 is optimized to minimize energy system cost under the input condition.

出典: （社）日本原子力産業会議資料

Input OutputOptimization to minimize system cost

5

Main pre-conditions for the analysis

• Deep reduction of CO2 emission（80% reduction compared to 2015）

• Demand and cost are assumed based on general database– Final demand: Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook (METI)

– Price of fossil fuel: International Energy Agency（IEA）

– Price of renewable energy: NEDO(New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization )

etc.

• Upper limit of renewable energy and nuclear has widely been changed to investigate the impact on energy system– Renewable ：high , intermediate

– Nuclear ：high, intermediate, zero

• CCS is available by 50 M t/year (5% of total emission of present days）Standard : high renewable and intermediate nuclear (no new construction)

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Results (Primary Energy and power generation)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

TWh

Power generationその他

水素

廃棄物・バイ

オマス

地熱

水力

風力

太陽光

原子力

LNG火力

石炭火力

石油火力

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

Primary Energy

その他

液体水素

再生可能

原子力

天然ガス

石炭・石炭製

品

石油・石油製

品

7

Results (Industry and building)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

Building

その他

熱

ガス

石炭製品

石油製品

電力

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

PJ

Industry

その他

熱

ガス

石炭製品

石油製品

電力

8

Results (Transport and CO2 emission by sector)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PJ

Transport合成燃料

重油

軽油

ジェット燃料

ガソリン

ＬＰＧ

都市ガス

水素

電力

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

MtC

O2

CO2 emission by sector

回収貯留

転換

運輸

民生

産業

発電

正味排出

9

Sensitivity analysis

0

400

800

1200

Power generation (TWh)その他

水素

バイオマス

地熱

水力

風力

太陽光

原子力

LNG火力

石炭火力

石油火力

0500

10001500200025003000

標準

太陽

光・風力限定

原子力なし

太陽

光・風

力限

定・原子力

なし 原

子力分析

標準

太陽

光・風力限定

原子力なし

太陽

光・風

力限

定・原子力

なし 原

子力分析

2030 2050

Transport (PJ)

合成燃料

重油

軽油

ジェット燃料

ガソリン

水素

電力

10

Implication of the results• In 2050, budget of CO2 emission could be consumed only by part of the

industry and transport where decarbonization is really difficult. Other should be near zero emission.– Power generation sector strongly depend on the technical scenario.

In other words, we have a wide variety of future selection. • Increase of renewable energy will be basic trend for a while. However,

share around 2050 is uncertain mainly due to unstable output.• Nuclear is relatively feasible technically but public acceptance is

uncertain.• In the case that renewable or nuclear don’t go well, hydrogen turbine was

employed in TIMES-Japan model. Other technologies are also possible– Thermal plant with fossil fuel with CCUS– Other renewable such as ocean or biomass

– Increase of EV is basic trend at present. However if we assume the society to utilize hydrogen intensively, FCV is also possible.

※In other sector, low carbon technologies are fully employed independent from the technical scenario.

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Mega trend toward 2050 and beyond

We have carried out technology assessment for important technologies and propose 3 mega trend for 2050 and beyond

• Challenge to establish control system for intermittent renewable energy and energy storage system.– Electrification and energy storage system

• Challenge to establish supply chain and reduce cost in order to utilize imported hydrogen– Hydrogen utilization energy system

• Challenge on large scale CCUS– Carbon recycling energy system

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Electrification and energy storage system

Most of the electricity is supplied by intermittent renewable energy with energy storage system and comprehensive control system

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Hydrogen utilization energy system

Introduction of renewable is limited mainly due to control of intermittency. On the other hand, hydrogen supply chain could be established and utilized intensively.

出典：IAE CO2フリー水素普及シナリオ研究会

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Carbon recycling energy system

If cheap and sufficient hydrogen could be obtained, importing synthetic fuel is also possible.

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Future role of Nuclear

• Improvement of safety and public acceptance is the most important issue at present. For future, followings are the key issues.1. Among the low carbon technologies, nuclear is the most

feasible for large scale application. Keeping nuclear is important at least as a back-up of other technologies.

2. Using other technologies with higher marginal reduction cost instead of nuclear can lead to a significant increase in energy costs.

3. Nuclear power contributes to improving the diversity of energy supply and improving self-sufficiency. Furthermore, the stored energy in the plant is so large that it is strong against fuel supply interruption.

4. Application to areas where it is considered difficult to replace fossil fuels is expected such as high temperature heat supply for industrial use, combined heat and power supply to isolated areas, power of shipping and icebreakers, etc.

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Energy system cost

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

relative index of enegy cost (2015=1.0)

標準 太陽光・風力限定

原子力なし 太陽光・風力限定・原子力なし

原子力分析

No nuclear

PV wind limited

PV wind limited, no nuclear

Standard

High nuclear

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Summary

• In order to realize a deep reduction ~ 80% in 2050, CO2emissions are permitted only in a part of industries and transportation, others are required to be zero emissions, regardless the technology scenario.

• Main challenges to realize CO2 deep reduction is as follows (TIME-Japan, and other models)– Intermittent renewable energy with energy storage system– Transportation such as aviation, shipping– Industry, especially material production

• We proposed 3 mega trend and issues and their measures are analyzed.（will be presented in the symposium Oct.12)

• Nuclear is important option. Not only improvement of safety, innovative R&D for future application is important.