iain gillott iain@igr-inc - wordpress.com
TRANSCRIPT
1
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
Iain Gillott(512) 263-5682
[email protected]@iGR Inc.com
1
Presented at TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference
January 28-29, 2015Radisson Downtown, Austin, Texas
Introduction Why LTE bandwidth is increasing
, Inc
, 201
5
y ba d dt s c eas g What consumers do On-the-Go Where and when the bandwidth is used Why Small Cells…and what are they? Deploying a Small Cell Small Cell Costs
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h Small Cell Costs Future architectures
2
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
Wireless and Mobile L d
Small Cell Architectures
, Inc
, 201
5
Market Research & Subscription
Services
End-User Quantitative and
Qualitative Studies
Content Marketing
Landscape Architectures
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
hCustom Research Services
Content Marketing Products and Media
Support
The needs of the end-user are king, from the prepaid customer to the large global corporation
The ability to offer and deliver a range of content to all types of mobile platforms (including connected cars and wearable devices) is essential
, Inc
, 201
5
g Network bandwidth needs to be made available where and when the user
demands it, not simply where the operator is able to make service available◦ This includes inside buildings, in the home and in the air
Mobile is an integral part of any Cloud or IoT architecture, product or service Old and existing security and privacy rules apply to the new world of IoT, mobile
devices, networks, services and content The device market is highly competitive, with effectively two brands dominating
the mobile space globally◦ New market entrants need clear market and product differentiation in order to even get
noticed, never mind succeed All content, services and communities will be available from all devices, regardless
f l i i f d f b db d i
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
hof location, time of day, or type of broadband connection New technologies are penetrating the ICT industry faster than ever, and the rate of
change is accelerating◦ For example, mobile network virtualization is now a reality and the next few years will see
mobile architectures transformed with the application of SDN and NFV
3
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
70%
80%Smartphone Tablet Laptop
S t h d
, Inc
, 201
5
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Smartphone used almost the whole time people are
awake!
Tablet increasingly used
at home in the evening –
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
0%
10%
5 am to 7 am
7 am to 9 am
9 am to 11 am
11 am to 1 pm
1 pm to 3 pm
3 pm to 5 pm
5 pm to 7 pm
7 pm to 9 pm
9 pm to 11 pm
11 pm to 5 am
evening remember this
point
2,500
3,000
400,000
450,000
Total LTE Network Usage in North America, 2014-
2019 (GB)
LTE Connections North America, 2014-2019
(000s)
, Inc
, 201
5
1,000
1,500
2,000
,
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
0
500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-
50,000
100,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
60%
70%General data use
General data communication
, Inc
, 201
530%
40%
50%
Check social networking sites
Update social networking sites
Engage in Audio / Video chats
Watch videos
Play online games
Listen to streaming music / audio
Download music
Download apps / games / software / files for aver t
he n
ext f
ew y
ears
m
atch
wire
line
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
0%
10%
20%
At Home On the Go
Download apps / games / software / files for a mobile deviceDownload apps / games / software / files for a desktop / laptopUpload / download from a cloud storage
All of these
None of theseW
ill g
row
ovto
m
Download apps/game/software/files for computer
Upload/download from cloud storage
, Inc
, 201
5
Update social networking
Engage in Audio / Video chats
Watch videos
Play online games
Listen to streaming music / audio
Download music
Download apps/games/software/files for mobile device
pp g p
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
General data use
General communication
Check social networking
Update social networking
Wi-Fi Mobile Data Both
5
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
3,000,000 Video: 60% of Mobile
Data Traffic
, Inc
, 201
5
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Apps
Video
Audio
General ActivityVideo: 48% of Mobile
Data
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
0
500,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Data Traffic
9
0.600
0.700
WiFi Only
WiFi Offload - Carrier 0.600
0.700
2013 2018, I
nc, 2
015
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500WiFi Offload - User
Mobile Broadband
Home WiFi
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
0.000
0.100
0.000
0.100
6
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
Macro networks cover metro areas relatively wellBut LTE devices tend to be used statically - video
, Inc
, 201
5
Creates capacity demand hotspotsHotspots move over time as people move
Not spots also exist and need to be addressediGR has model for bandwidth demand – network capacity for
a given area
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
hSolution Description Technology # of Users Cell Radius
DAS Typically fed by a macro or micro base station. High power, multi-frequency,
UMTS, HSPA+, LTE Up to 1,800 users per base station
Up to 3 miles
, Inc
, 201
5
multi-carrier
WiFi A wireless access point connects a group of wireless devices to an adjacent wired LAN
802.11b/g/n; AC (forthcoming)
Up to 200 users per a 3-radio access point
65 feet
Microcell Short-range base station used for enhancing indoor and/or outdoor coverage
UMTS, HSPA+, LTE 32 to 200 users Up to ~1 mile
Metrocell High-capacity, low power device that fills in coverage holes within buildings
UMTS, HSPA+, LTE 16 to 32 users 10,000 to 20,000 square feet
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
Source: AT&T’s Antenna Solutions Group, 2014
Picocell Typically used for indoor applications such as office buildings, airports and malls
UMTS, HSPA+, LTE 32 users Up to 750 feet
Femtocell A small, low-power cellular base station typically used for a home or small business
UMTS, HSPA+, LTE 4-6 users 40 feet
7
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
Low cost, small form factor Light enough to be mounted in exposed and/or precarious locations
(poles, building sides, roofs, etc.Resistant to the elements and to tampering
, Inc
, 201
5
Resistant to the elements and to tampering Tolerate sway (from wind); this also applies to wireless backhaul systems Low power operations so as to provide targeted coverage/capacity Capable of monitoring the surrounding RF landscape to manage and
reduce interference from neighboring cells Fast and easy installation that can be done by skilled or semi-skilled
individuals who may (or may not) be employees of the mobile operator needing the small cells◦ This also applies to the backhaul connection, particularly if the installation requires a
wireless backhaul systemOnce po ered on the small cell sho ld connect to the ser er that
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h Once powered on, the small cell should connect to the server that authenticates the device and then provisions its main parameters, updates firmware/software if required, etc.
Self- provisioning of radio access network (RAN) parameters Low latency backhaul, to support the LTE X1 and S2 interfaces, and
support for multiple synchronization methods
iGR assumes that small cells will most likely be deployed into dense urban, urban or heavily populated suburban areas
Buildings, and their roofs, are ideal for small cell deployments Exterior building walls are also a possibility
Major $$$ factor
, Inc
, 201
5
Exterior building walls are also a possibility Street furniture
◦ Broad term that refers to any number of items typically seen in an urban landscape – benches, bill boards, bus stops, traffic barriers, traffic lights and signs, light poles, utility poles, garbage cans, etc.
◦ Some of the above are suitable for small cell deployment. Some are not◦ Deployable assets boils down to street fixtures that have elevation and access to power – poles
of numerous variety, bill boards, water towers, etc. Not all street poles (non traffic related) are created equal. In short, there a few types
of entities that own those poles: ◦ ILECs (the incumbent local exchange carrier) ◦ Utilities◦ Municipalities
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h◦ Municipalities◦ On utility poles, small cells (and any backhaul) would have to be attached in the
communications space where all the communications providers have their gear◦ Note that lamp/light posts may not have enough additional power/circuits to drive the small
cell attached to it. This would be an issue discovered in the site location process◦ Back-up power is typically not provided for in the current small cell deployments
Adhere to any zoning provisions related to the placement of small cells and permitting process◦ May also be building codes and landmark and historic preservation codes, aesthetic
requirements, power, environmental and safety regulation
8
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
Options: Wired or Wireless Within each of those types, there are multiple options Fiber appears to be the preferred backhaul for cellular systems
Major $$$ factor
, Inc
, 201
5
pp p yregardless of their type, but fiber is:◦ Not always where it is needed◦ Very expensive to get to where it is needed, particularly for outdoor
deployments where trenching is required Note that fiber tends to be plentiful in urban areas and relatively
scarce in rural areas Some small cells might be backhauled to a nearby macro cell site
requiring that the bandwidth of the existing macro backhaul be increased
Mobile operator may have multiple co located small cells serving
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h Mobile operator may have multiple co-located small cells serving different “pain points” from a rooftop◦ May require a combination of wireless technologies (LOS and NLOS),
backhaul architectures (star, ring, etc.) along with local aggregation◦ No single backhaul topology will be optimal in all use cases◦ Flexibility is critical to successful deployments
LTE macrocells require a minimum of 100 Mbps and iGR expects that to scale rather quickly to 1 Gbps or even 10 Gbps as LTE devices increasingly penetrate
, Inc
, 201
5
e e 0 Gbps as de ces c eas g y pe et atethe market
Backhaul architecture for LTE has to support two interfaces: ◦ S1: the interface from LTE eNBs to the EPC (the EPC includes
the S-GW and the MME) ◦ X2: the interface connecting eNBs to other eNBs that are
typically organized into logical groups Current generation of small cells support only one
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
hg pp yomnidirectional cell and one carrier per site◦ Amount of backhaul required for a single LTE carrier
(10x10 MHz) would be lower than what would be required for an LTE macrocell
9
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
, Inc
, 201
5
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h, I
nc, 2
015
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
18
10
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
, Inc
, 201
5
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
19
MCDS
Scenarios modeled includes the costs for 10, 50 and 100 cell deployments
Location scenarios are:
, Inc
, 201
5
◦ Existing pole◦ New pole◦ Building wall◦ Building roof
Type of small cells are:◦ LTE multimode◦ LTE RRH
Types of backhaul are:Lit fib i l d t h d
39 Scenarios modeled
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h◦ Lit fiber, aerial and trenched◦ Dark fiber, aerial and trenched◦ Lit fiber (transfer pricing), aerial and trenched◦ Dark fiber (transfer pricing), aerial and trenched◦ Wireless backhaul, point to multipoint
11
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
Cost item Configuration
Type of Small Cell LTE multimodeExisting pole
, Inc
, 201
5
Location
Existing poleMake‐ready
One attachment
Backhaul
Lit fiberAerialLeased
500 feet25 Mbps
Installation requirements (per site)One installerBucket truck
1 Cell $xxxxx
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
Capital expenses
1 Cell $xxxxx
10 Cells $xxxxxx
50 Cells $xxxxxxx
100 Cells $xxxxxxx
Operating expenses (per year)
1 Cell $xxxxx
10 Cells $xxxxxx
50 Cells $xxxxxx
100 Cells $xxxxxx
Cost item Configuration
Type of Small Cell LTE MetrocellBuilding roof
, Inc
, 201
5
Location
Building roofMake ready
One attachment
BackhaulWireless Backhaul
25 Mbps
Installation requirements (per site) One installer
1 Cell $XXXX
10 Cells $XXXXX
50 C ll $XXXXXX
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
Capital expenses
50 Cells $XXXXXX
100 Cells $XXXXXX
Operating expenses (per year)
1 Cell $XXXX
10 Cells $XXXXX
50 Cells $XXXXXX
100 Cells $XXXXXX
12
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
$64,160
$60,000
$70,000
CapEx
, Inc
, 201
5
$31,008
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
OpEx
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
$6,670
$14,242
$868
$6,191
$0
$10,000
Highest cost scenarios Lowest cost scenarios Median costs for all scenarios
RAN
RRH PCRF
Content, I
nc, 2
015
Metro data center
EPC (distributed)
Local data center/Central
Office
National data center
IP core
SDN
EPC
RRH(on
building)
Macro(on tower)
Baseband UnitCPRI
100,000s
150,000
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h
Metro(lamp post)
S-GW P-GW
100,000s1,000 100 5
24
13
Presented at TFI Communication Technology Asset Valuation Conference, January 28‐29, 2015Please contact speaker or TFI regarding reproducing presentation material.
, Inc
, 201
5
www.iGR-inc.com
Sour
ce: i
Gillo
ttRes
earc
h