Scenario Planning: A Methodology for Analyzing Sensemaking and Change

Processes Riley, P., Li, Z., Evans, S.K.,

Weiss, E., & Noyes, A.

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Energy

Source:  The  Shell  Global  Scenarios  to  2025  

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Politics

Diagram  Source:      “The  Mont  Fleur  Scenarios”,    Deeper  News/Global  Business  Network  

Source:  Evoke  website,  World  Bank  InsItute  

Theory and Research •  Narratives and discourse

•  Sensemaking

•  Collaboration

•  New technology

•  New business models

•  New publics and new relationships

•  Social networks

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Sources:  USC  Civic  Paths,  Cool  California,  hNp://www.flickr.com/photos/superkimbo/3121817819/  

Our Process: Pre-Workshop •  Determine workshop type •  Interviews with select participants •  Brainstorm key trends that affect your

organization •  Design and disseminate the scenario topics

with instructions and due dates •  Have participants post their scenarios

Our Process: Workshop •  Analysis prior to workshop

–  Themes –  Discourse analysis –  Cognitive maps, mental models –  Foresight assessment –  Strategic implications –  Creativity, innovation –  Semantic network analysis –  Survey/network data analysis

•  Affirmation process in groups –  Settle on a set of plausible scenarios (aggregate up) –  Storyboard session (debrief) –  Continue to update website

Summary  of  Scenario  Themes  Including  Func6onal  Ac6vi6es  (mul6ple  codes)    

Advice  Network  of  Entertainment  Division.  Node  color  is  Newman-­‐Girvan  clustering.  Node  shape  is  department.  

Results •  Reporting and storytelling skills are critical

•  Short-term approach blind spots

•  Building civic engagement through participatory story-telling requires engaging with long-term news issues

•  Set date far enough in the future

•  Online scenarios open to all participants

•  Balance conservative and far-reaching thinkers

•  Manage the workshops like focus groups

•  Be observant – people will change their perspectives

•  Positivity inside their own organizations; pessimism in larger institutions or networks

Thanks! http://uscscenariolab.com/

Additional slides…

Example Scenario Prompt •  World Bank Communication and Governance

Reform Scenario Exercise excerpt:

“SCENARIO PROMPT 3: VISIONARY

It is the year 2021, and your country has become known around the world as the most remarkably successful model of Information Society development (through internet, mobile and social media technologies) over the last decade. Your country has been much more effective and innovative in developing political and economic communication and information rights, as interpreted in your national context, than the your organization thought possible in 2011. In fact, your country and your organization have been so successful that you are now seen as one of the primary visionary models for other countries around the world to follow as they continue to develop as Information Societies.”

Example Participant Scenario

•  World Bank Communication and Governance Reform Scenario Exercise excerpt:

"Moreover, the public discussions on corruption started having an accurate approach which increased significantly the awareness of the public opinion of the impact the corruption has over the whole society. The manipulative messages carried out by the media owned by the politically related businessmen have lost their power to influence the audience. Hence, a broader debate stirred by the civil society and supported by the social media had increased knowledge and encouraged the common citizens to disclose corruption cases.” – Participant (Romanian official)