iceland's policy and action plan on climate change
TRANSCRIPT
Jón Geir Pétursson & Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson
ICELAND‘S POLICY AND ACTION PLAN
ON CLIMATE CHANGE
With a Specific Focus on Agriculture and Land use/land use change/forestry
Nordic Agriculture facing Climate Change”, Turku, Finland 28. June 2016
Photo: Hugi Ólafsson
1) Iceland’s Climate Profile
2) Multilateral Climate Commitments
3) General Climate Policy
4) 2010 Action Plan on Climate Mitigation
5) Emissions
6) New CC Action plan and agriculture
7) Afforestation as a climate mitigation activity in Iceland
Photos from Hugi Ólafsson
Iceland’s GHG emissions profile
• Small population (325,000) and overall emissions (4.5 m tons); 14 tons per capita
• Unusual emissions profile (industrial processes and transport biggest sectors)
• Highest share of renewables in OECD: 85% of total energy use; 100% of stationary energy production (electricity and space heating)
• Abundant renewable energy sources (hydro, geothermal)
• Abundant carbon sequestration opportunities (afforestation, revegetation)
Photo: Hugi Ólafsson
GHG emissions in 2010
– share of sectors
Iceland EU-15
Iceland = 4.5 m tons CO2 eq. Scholven power plant (Gelsenkirchen,
Germany) = 9.4 m tons CO2
Absolute emissions = 0.01% of global emissions = 0.1% of EU-28 emissions
De-carbonization of energy production:
- Energy production = 4,6% of total emissions (CO2 from geothermal)
- Use and share of renewables (hydro and geothermal has increased greatly
CO2 emissions (thousands of tons/year)from energy production in Reykjavík
International Commitments
• UNFCCC cornerstone of climate policy
• Iceland is part of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), as a
part of the EEA Agreement; starting in 2012
• 11 Icelandic entities under the EU-ETS (heavy industry, aviation, fish
meal production); 40% of Iceland’s emissions
• Rules and targets for Icelandic industry and sectors comparable to
that of other European countries (EU, Norway, Switzerland)
• Paris: Iceland is committed to take part in joint efforts with the
European Union (EU) and Norway to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions by 40% by 2030 (as compared to 1990 levels).
• Iceland will fulfil its international obligations according to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol.
• Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced, with a special emphasis on reducing the use of fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy sources and climate-friendly fuels.
• The government will attempt to increase carbon sequestrationfrom the atmosphere through afforestation, revegetation, wetland reclamation, and changed land use.
• Long-term aspirational goal: 50-75% net emissions cuts to 2050
• The government will support research and innovation in climate mitigation and will promote transfer of Icelandic expertise in renewable energy and climate-friendly technology.
• The government will prepare for adaptation to climate change.
Government 2007 Climate Strategy
2010 Action Plan
• Action Plan takes account of 2007 Strategy and likely
international commitments; builds on 2009 expert study
on mitigation potential and cost
• Ten “key actions” to cut net emissions, so that they
will be 1.2-1.7 million tons less than in a
„Business-as-usual“ scenario in 2020
• Key actions should ensure that Iceland can honour
its post-2012 commitments in the period up to 2020
• High mitigation potential in LULUCF: afforestation
and revegetationvegetation
• Significant mitigation potential in transport and fisheries
• Heavy industry must acquire emission permits after 2012
• Net emissions in non-ETS sectors should decrease appr.
30% from 2005 to 2020
1. Application of EU-ETS to relevant sectors
2. Carbon tax
3. Change in taxes and fees for cars and fuels
4. Official procurement of low-carbon and fuel efficient vehicles
5. Increased share of public transport, walking and bicycling in transport
6. Biofuels for the fishing fleet
7. Electrification of fish-meal production (currently using heavy oil)
8. Increased afforestation and revegetation
9. Restoration of drained wetlands
10.Increased R&D in climate-friendly technology
- Total: 1330-1570 Gg less net emissions per year by 2020 than in Business-as-usual
Ten Key Actions
Trends in
emissions
• The Icelandic government has announced a new sixteen-point plan for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and tackling climate change.
• The plan was presented in the run-up to COP21, UNFCCC climate conference in Paris.
New Climate Change Action Plan
(Sóknaráætlun í loftslagsmálum)
• Divided into three sections
• The first deals with reducing overall emissions in Iceland –generated by transport, fisheries, agriculture and land use.
• The second section on bolstering international cooperation and assisting other countries in reducing emissions.
• Thirdly, the plan addresses the issue of improving infrastructure in Iceland, involving better data and forecasts, awareness-raising on the issue of climate change, and closer monitoring of the country’s glaciers.
The new CC mitigation action plan
Main focus is on following initiatives:
1. Marine sector: Mitigation roadmap
2. Agricultural sector: Mitigation roadmap
3. Increased carbon sequestration in forestry and land reclamation
4. Enter Wetland restoration program
5. Minimize Food waste
Agriculture and food related focal actions
Icelanders are self-sufficient in all major livestock products, such as meat, milk, and eggs.
Traditional livestock production is grassland based and most farm animals are native breeds, i.e. dairy cattle, sheep, horses, and goats, which are all of an ancient Nordic origin. These animals are generally smaller than the breeds common elsewhere in Europe. Beef production, however, is partly through imported breeds, as is most poultry and all pork production.
There is not much arable crop production in Iceland, due to a cold climate and short growing season.
Cropland in Iceland consists mainly of cultivated hayfields, but potatoes, barley, beets, and carrots are grown on limited acreage.
Agriculture and climate change -
Background
Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015
• Total methane emissions from agriculture amounted to 12.61 Gg in 2013; total nitrous oxide emissions to 0.89Gg. Thus combined CH4 and N2O emissions amounted to 648 Gg CO2-eq. in 2013.
• Aggregated agriculture emissions were 779.53 Gg CO2-eq. in 1990. The 17% decrease is mainly due to a decrease in sheep livestock population, reducing methane emissions from enteric fermentation and reduced fertilizer application reducing N2O emissions from agricultural soils. 88% of CH4 emissions were caused by enteric fermentation, the rest by manure management. 77% of N2O emissions were caused by agricultural soils, the rest by manure management, i.e. storage of manure.
Agricultural emissions
Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015
During the period 2002 – 2013, satellite data from NASA (NDVI)
suggest no change or reduced vigor of vegetation on most of the land
area, despite warming during the period.
Exceptions: afforested areas and Nootka lupin fields (green on map).
Raynolds et al. 2015. Remote Sens. 7(8), 9492-9506
„Iceland is a
doomsday scenario
for the rest of the
world“ (Andrés Arnalds,
Icel. Soil Conservation
Service on BBC, 2005)
Photo: Christof Wöll
Photo: Christof Wöll
Photo: Christof Wöll
Photo: Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson
New mitigation roadmap for agriculture
Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015
• Agricultural data is at present not of adequate quality
• The aim is to carry out a reliable analysis of the main GHG-emission sources and sinks in Icelandic agriculture.
• Information gained will be used as a roadmap to propose mechanisms of reducing emissions from agriculture.
Afforestation and its potential for CC mitigation
• Iceland is the least forested of all the Nordic (and European)
countries (save Faroe Islands and Greenland).
• At settlement (in 9th century) Iceland was „wooded between
the mountains and the seashore“ (source: Ari „the wise“
Thorgilsson, 13th century historian).
• The difference (25-40% down to 0.5-1.9%) can be explained
by „land-use change“ since settlement.
• Iceland‘s lack of forests is not because the country is „too
cold“.
0.5% has „forest“ (by FAO
definition.
1.9% has woody
vegetation.
Icelandic Forest Research, before and after
afforestation
1967
20141967
Photo: Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson
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Lífmassi Dautt lífrænt efni Brúnjörð Mójörð Samtals
kílóto
nn
CO
2
Frá 1990
Allir skógar
-100
1020304050
Lífmassi Dautt lífræntefni
Brúnjörð Mójörð Samtalskíl
óto
nn
CO
2
Frá 1990
Allir skógar
Sequestration
of CO2 in
2012:
268 kt CO2
CO2 emissions
from
automobiles:
782 kt CO2
Cultivated forest
Seminatural (birch) woodlands
Source: Arnór Snorraso, Icel. Forest Inventorybiomass
Dead
organic
matter
soil Total
All
forestland
As of 1990
Iceland• Net-C-sequestration in Icelandic forests amounts
0,3 million tons/an.
• Net anthropogenic GHG emissions were (in 2014) 3,5-16,5 million tons CO2-eq. (depending on how emission from drained wetlands are factored in or out).
• Thus, the Icelandic forest sink annually sequesters 2 - 8% of net GHG emissions.
• Emissions per capita: 10,5 to 49,5 tons / an.
• Forest cover 0,5 / 1,35 / 1,9% af the total area of Iceland (depending on how one chooses to define ‘forestland’).
Meginheimild: Þjóðarskýrsla Íslands um losun gróðurhúsaloftegunda
Rannsóknastöð
skógræktar
Birch limit: 7,6°C
Potential distribution of birch woodlands in Iceland (green)
in 2015, with 1.5°C warming from 2008.
Total potential woodland area: 8.900.000 ha
THANK YOU!
Thank you for your attention.
Photo: Páll Ingþór Kristinsson