idmp cee 2nd workshop: ipcc new reports by kajfez bogataj
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Monitoring of climate system
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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2003-2012 average)
2.6 ± 0.5 GtC/yr
27%
8.6 ± 0.4 GtC/yr 92%
+ 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 8%
2.6 ± 0.8 GtC/yr
27% Calculated as the residual
of all other flux components
4.3±0.1 GtC/yr
45%
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It is extremely likely that more than 50% of the warming
since 1951 is due to the increase in greenhouse gases
and other anthropogenic forcings together
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IPCC AR5 2013
It is warmer across the globe than it was a century ago
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Global natural disasters 1980 – 2013 Geophysical, meteorological, hydrological events
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Representative Concentration Pathways
Vir: Van Vuuren et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an
overview. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
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Ranges for predicted surface
warming
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Projections Europe (RCP4.5) 2081-2100 versus 1986-2005
Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%)
winter summer winter half summer half
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2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089
20
40
60
80
100
PERCEN
TAG
E O
F
YIE
LD
PRO
JECTIO
NS
0 2090-2109
0 – -5%
-5 – -10%
-10 – -25%
-25 – -50%
-50 – -100%
50 – 100%
25 – 50%
10 – 25%
5 – 10%
0 – 5%
Range of Yield Change
Increase in Yield
Decrease in Yield
Crop Yield Change
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Alleviating rivalries between
economic sectors?
Climatic
change Water
resources
Tourism Agriculture Mining
Conflict mitigation through improved
water governance?
Energy
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WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS
INCREASE
RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE