iea mobility model · 3 wheelers 0 2 wheelers 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 urban non-urban urban...

© OECD/IEA 2016

Marine Gorner

ITF workshop

Decarbonising urban transport

Paris, 19 April 2018

IEA Mobility Model

© OECD/IEA 2016

Energy Technology Perspectives series

Published since 2006 in several editions

Analyzing economy-wide energy and GHG emissions

ETP 2016:

focus on urban energy systems

addition of urban analysis capability in the Mobility Model

ETP 2017:

Beyond 2 Degree Scenario (B2DS): net-0 GHG emissions by 2060

© OECD/IEA 2016

ETP Urban analysis

Focus on sustainable urban energy systems

Policy objectives: environmental sustainability, energy security, and economic development

Analysis of how local and national energy policies can be more effectively aligned

Transport chapter

Estimate of global transportation activity, energy demand and GHG emissions in urban areas

Projections under the different ETP model scenarios

Analysis of the sustainable energy technology options, looking primarily at urban transportation

Identification of policy solutions

© OECD/IEA 2016

ETP Urban analysis

Total transport energy demand, 2015:

107 EJ

40% in urban areas

Passenger, urban:

1: cars

2: 2-3 wheelers (emerging economies)

Freight, urban:

1% of urban activity (trucks)

But 20% of urban energy use (higher energy and GHG intensity of road freight, especially in the urban environment)

© OECD/IEA 2016

GHG emissions Mostly from cars (also urban), trucks and air

2015 total estimate (well to wheel): 9.5 Gt of CO2 equivalent

Transport is the least diversified energy demand sector

Oil products: more than 90% of the energy consumed

GHG emission distribution mirrors closely energy demand

Non-urban - Well to Tank Non-urban - Tank to Wheel

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3 wheelers

Medium trucks

Light commercial

Rail

Shipping

Heavy trucks

Mt of CO2 equivalent

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2 & 3 wheelers

Cars

Buses andminibuses

Rail

Air

Mt of CO2 equivalent

Urban - Well to Tank Urban - Tank to Wheel

Passenger Freight

© OECD/IEA 2016

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Avoid/Shift Low-carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency

Avoid/Shift Low carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency

UrbanNon-urban

Need to decouple activity & emissions Avoid/shift, efficiency, low carbon fuels

Urban transport activity, 2DS, 2050: passenger +70%, freight + 40% Need to decouple activity and emissions

OECD transport emissions have peaked Non-OECD transport emissions can be brought back to current levels in 2050

© OECD/IEA 2016

Technologies

Technologies capable of delivering the changes required by the 2DS scenario can be categorized as follows:

Technologies allowing to manage travel demand (avoiding travel needs and shifting mobility to the most efficient modes) - closely linked to the deployment of information and communication technologies (ICT)

Technologies improving the energy efficiency of vehicles

Technologies reducing the carbon intensity of fuels

MaaS and Autonomous, Connected and Shared vehicles:

Effect on urban mobility?

© OECD/IEA 2016

Focus on vehicle technologies Cars and LCVs

2DS sees large penetration of electric vehicles on the market

Policies limit LDVs below 2.5 billion in 2050 in 2DS

(Update ETP 2017, B2DS: 1.9 billion)

Electric cars nearly 10% of LDVs stock by 2030, 40% by 2050.

(Update ETP 2017, B2DS: 70% by 2050)

Leading markets are in OECD and China

Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE CNG/LPG Hybrids Plug-in electric Battery electric Fuel cell


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© OECD/IEA 2016

Rationale for the policy portfolio Drivers of modal choices in cities

Income growth tends to be coupled with growing shares of pkm on cars

Public transport shares in high income countries are clustered in different groups

Fuel taxation and vehicle taxation, as well as local polices, influence the results

Urban density emerges as a key prerequisite to provide mobility options alternative to cars and make sure that public transport maintains relevant shares

© OECD/IEA 2016

Transport Demand Drivers - Passenger

Structural

effect

Income

effect

Cost (USD/km) influences the

evolution of pkm on public and

personal motorised transport

Source: elaboration of UITP, quoted by IEA, 2008

Modal share of personal vehicles in total personal and public transport

http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/etp2008.pdf

© OECD/IEA 2016

Policy recommendations Use a coherent portfolio of instruments

National/Supra-national policies Fuel taxes Removal of fuel subsidies Introduction of CO2 taxation on fuels Fuel economy standards Vehicle taxes, including feebates/bonus-malus schemes RD&D support

Local measures Compact city (e.g. densification, integrating land use and transport

planning, promotion of brownfield development and TOD) Pricing (congestion charges, tolls parking fees) Regulatory (access & parking restrictions, low emission zones) Public transport investments (e.g. network development, subsidies

© OECD/IEA 2016

Policy portfolio

Scope Policy category Impact

Avoid/Shift Vehicle

efficiency

Low carbon

fuels

Local Pricing (congestion charges, tolls

parking fees) Yes Possible none

Regulatory (access & parking

restrictions, low emission zones)Yes Possible Minor

Public transport investments Yes Possible none

Compact city Yes none none

National Fuel taxation Yes Yes Possible

Fuel economy regulations none Yes Possible

Vehicle taxation, feebates Possible Yes Possible

Low carbon fuel standards none none Yes

Alternative fuel mandates none none Yes

RD&D support none yes Yes

© OECD/IEA 2016

Local policies Examples of measures already in use

Front runners exist amongst cities

Effects observed in these cities were instrumental to assess the impact of these policies and generalize it in our projections

© OECD/IEA 2016

Sustainable transport systems: a cheaper way to provide service

Urban transport investments

In the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles while public transport travel activity more than doubles

Lower expenditure on the purchase of passenger cars overwhelms the higher costs of low-carbon vehicles

Reduced fuel demand due to avoid + shift + improve

Increase in global infrastructure costs for the scale up of public transport networks is almost entirely offset by the savings from less road building & maintenance

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Internal combustion engine

Electrified

Parking and road

Metro and light rail

Infrastructure

Vehicles

© OECD/IEA 2016

Thank you for your attention

© OECD/IEA 2016

Passenger transport Urban/non-urban analysis

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World OECD Non-OECD

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3 wheelers

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3 wheelers

2 wheelers

Global passenger transport energy demand in 2015, by mode

• Primarily cars, followed by aviation • 2-wheelers (primarily in non-OECD)

© OECD/IEA 2016

Shipping accounts for 81% of all tkm, urban trucks for 1%

But trucks account for the majority of energy use

Freoght transport Urban/non-urban analysis

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Global freight transport energy demand in 2015, by mode

© OECD/IEA 2016

Energy demand Global results

Transport energy demand 2015 107 EJ

2050 100 (2DS) - 184 EJ (6DS)

2DS sees a net global decline, but not in all regions

2050: increased diversification in all scenarios (far more in 2DS)

Electricity and biofuels needed as substitutes for oil-based fuels

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Urban Non-urban

EJWorld

Other

Hydrogen

Natural gas

Electricity

Biofuels

Liquid fuels fromfossil energy

© OECD/IEA 2016

Energy demand Regional details

Absolute reductions in OECD, starting within the coming decade, even in 4DS

Absolute increases in energy use of major developing and emerging regions

Even in 2DS, energy use in Africa grows up to 2050, begins to level off in ASEAN and India in the late 2030s to 2040s, and peaks in 2035 in China

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Liquids from fossil fuels 1st generation biofuels 2nd generation biofuels

Natural gas Electricity Hydrogen

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© OECD/IEA 2016

Modelling avoid and shifts Link with policy drivers

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OECDOECD North America Canada Mexico USAOECD Europe France Germany Italy UK EU18-EUG4 EU Nordic Non-EU Nordic Non-EU OE2OECD Pacific Australia and NZ Japan KoreaOther OECDNon OECDEU 6OETERussiaATEChinaODAASEANIndiaMiddle EastLatin America Brazil Other Latin AmericaAfrica South Africa

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OECDOECD North America Canada Mexico USAOECD Europe France Germany Italy UK EU18-EUG4 EU Nordic Non-EU Nordic Non-EU OE2OECD Pacific Australia and NZ Japan KoreaOther OECDNon OECDEU 6OETERussiaATEChinaODAASEANIndiaMiddle EastLatin America Brazil Other Latin AmericaAfrica South Africa Other AfricaWORLDEU27

© OECD/IEA 2016

Policy deployment needs Quantitative examples

25% of all cities above 0.5 M inhabitants use extensively, in 2050, at least two out of three of the following instruments Pricing policies: congestion charges, cordon pricing, dynamic

parking pricing or other forms of road charging

Regulatory limitations: low-emission zones, access restrictions, parking restrictions, registration caps

Compact city policy incentives allowing investment in public transport, walking and cycling

Alternatively, 75% of all cities with more than 0.5 M residents need to roll out a more modest but still comprehensive and co-ordinated portfolio of policies in these three main categories

iea mobility model · 3 wheelers 0 2 wheelers 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 urban non-urban urban...

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