ieej : november 2013 all right reservedeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5350.pdf · larger than the supply of...
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© OECD/IEA 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013 – Photo credit: © thermalcities.com
Didier Houssin
Director Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology
18 October 2013
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Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry Transport Power generation
Buildings
Unrealised energy efficiency potential
Realised energy efficiency potential
Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012 New Policies Scenario
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A big market with bigger potential
USD300 billion market
Already delivers substantial reduction
Recent growth driven by policy and high energy prices
Bright national policy prospects
Potential $458 billion / year of savings by 2020
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USD300Bn global EE market in 2011
Comparable to RE and fossil power generation investments
BUT, investments in energy efficiency are still less than two-thirds of the level of fossil fuel subsidies
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Upstream oil and gas *
Coal, oil and gas electricity generation ***
Renewable electricity
generation **
Energy efficiency
Renewable energy
subsidies *
Fossil fuel subsidies *
US
D b
illio
n
Estimated range of USD 147 to 300 billion
EE stands alongside
supply resources
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• Between 1974 and 2010, energy efficiency was the largest energy resource
• Cumulative avoided energy consumption due to energy efficiency in these IEA countries amounted to over 1 350 EJ (32 billion toe)
IEA’s first fuel?
Long-term improvements in energy efficiency in 11 IEA countries
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Coal Oil GasElectricity Other Avoided energy useTFC
Total final Consumption (TFC)
Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency
improvementsAvoided energy equal to 65% of 2010 TFC
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Energy efficiency contributed 63 exajoules (EJ) (1400mtoe) of avoided energy use in 2010 larger than the supply of oil (43 EJ), electricity or natural gas (22 EJ each)
In 2010 energy efficiency was the largest resource
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Oil Electricity Gas Coal Other Avoided energy use
Mto
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Contribution of energy efficiency compared to other energy resources consumed in 2010 in 11 IEA countries
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Final energy use increased by 0.5%/year between 1990 and 2010
Efficiency effect is larger than the effect of structural changes in restraining energy growth
Energy efficiency has been the key factor restraining energy growth
Changes in TFC, decomposed into structure, activity and efficiency effects for 15 IEA countries
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
1990-2000 2000-10 1990-2010
Av
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TFC Activity effect Structure effect Efficiency effect
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Overall, just over half (54%) of the average annual reduction in intensity was due to improved efficiency.
46% of the reduction was due to changes in economic structure.
For 4 out of 15 countries energy efficiency was the dominant factor reducing energy intensity
Changes in aggregate intensities of 15 IEA countries, decomposed into structure and efficiency effects, 1990-2010
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Av
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Efficiency effect Structure effect
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Country case studies
Markets have distinctive characteristics related to country-specific socio-economic conditions and resource endowments.
Information provision and regulation have played a leading role in stimulating the energy efficiency market standards and labelling
providing access to energy assessments and financing
energy efficiency obligations placed on energy suppliers
Utility and energy service company (ESCO) schemes have also driven growth, especially among large energy users.
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Appliances are increasingly becoming network-connected
Smart appliance global market value
Network-connectivity and information communication technology can enable energy efficiency BUT they are also rapidly driving up energy demand Network standby could be 550TWh/yr if we don’t act
Standards (Energy Star, Top Runner) are key
40 509 9842,150
3,772
6,266
9,773
14,597
19,942
26,149
0
5,000
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15,000
20,000
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30,000
US
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illio
ns
Technology focus: the digital era is defining future appliance EE markets
10% of all
products will be
‘smart’ within 6
years
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Japan: a Top Runner in Energy Efficiency
Expected to deliver USD 3 bn in consumer benefits for lighting,
vehicles and appliances
Broaden scope to cover three-phase induction motors, LEDs, heat pumps and printers in 2015.
What is the energy efficiency spillover to international markets from Top Runner’s stimulation of efficient technologies?
Products Target year Additional cost *
(JPY billion) Direct benefit **
(JPY billion) Avoided energy
demand
Lighting 2005 3.4 38.1 14 040 GWh
(1.2 Mtoe)
Refrigerator 2004 19.0 80.7 29 749 GWh
(2.6 Mtoe)
Gasoline vehicle (1st
regulation) 2010 41.5 107.6
7 654 ML (6.6 Mtoe)
Video tape recorder 2003 3.5 8.8 3 241 GWh (0.28 Mtoe)
Air conditioner 2004 29.1 63.7 23 483 GWh
(2 Mtoe)
Electric rice-cooker 2008 2.1 2.4 888 GWh
(0.08 Mtoe)
Gasoline vehicle (2nd
regulation)
2015 60.7 65.4 4 436 ML
(3.9 Mtoe)
Warming toilet seat 2006 5.5 6.0 2 210 GWh (0.19 Mtoe)
Television 2003 28.1 23.9 8 819 GWh (0.76 Mtoe)
Personal computer 2005 48.0 17.9 6 611 GWh (0.57 Mtoe)
Microwave 2008 5.1 1.5 588 GWh
(0.05 Mtoe)
Totals - 246.0 416.0 -
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Korea: accelerating high efficiency appliances
Korean ESCOs reached USD 330 million in 2011, an increase of 63% from 2010. ESCO’s avoided 1.3 Mtoe in 2011.
The total number of high-efficiency products is increasing very fast in Korea.
Fuel-efficient vehicles are accelerating rapidly in Korea from 30% to 100% compliance with 17 km/l by 2015.
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Thou
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Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1
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Prospects –looking forward
Energy efficiency markets are expected to grow in the medium term :
Significant growth expected in private investment enabled by government policy rather than direct public investment.
End-use energy price is also a key driver,
but analysis is limited by data availability and relatively greater uncertainties in projecting future pricing trends.
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EEMR2013: Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction
Part I: Framework
Measuring the market for EE
Understanding the market for EE
What the numbers say: EE and changing energy use
Technology Focus: appliances, lighting and ICT
Part II: Country Review
Australia; Canada; China; European Union; France; Germany; India; Japan; Korea; Mexico; New Zealand; South Africa; South East Asian countries; United Kingdom; United States
Part III: Selected Data
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EEMR2014
EEWP support an EEMR in 2014 with:
A focus on Electricity Efficiency
Succinct country case studies–expand country base
Global Technology focus on Buildings or Transport
Improved data from countries
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Thank You
Contact : [email protected]
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