ieso 18monthoutlook_2010may
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From June 2010 to November 2011
An Assessment of the Reliability and Operability of the Ontario Electricity System
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Executive Summary
Ontariossupplyoutlookforthenext18monthsremainspositivewithsufficient
resourcesavailabletomaintainthereliabilityofOntarioselectricitysystem,andto
supplycommunitiesacrosstheprovince. FromJune2010toNovember2011,
approximately2,900megawatts(MW)ofnewandrefurbishedsupplyarescheduledto
entercommercialoperation. Ofthat,approximately470MWofnewgenerationhas
beenannouncedundertheFeedinTariff(FIT)programand180MWcontractedunder
theRenewableEnergySupplyIII(RESIII)program.
Asaresultofthepositivesupplyconditions,thederegistrationoffourcoalfiredunitsat
LambtonandNanticokerepresenting2,000MWofenergysupplyandcapacity has
beenapprovedbytheIESOforearlyfallof2010. Thereplacementfleetfortheseunits
hasdemonstratedreliableoperationoverthelasttwopeakperiodsandtheshutdownof
theseunitsisnotexpectedtoundulyimpacteitherenergyadequacyorreliabilityof
supplyinOntario.
ThereturntoserviceoftworefurbishednuclearunitsattheBruceANuclearStationis
stillexpectedwithinthe18monthforecasttimeframe;howevertheexpectedinservice
datesforthetwounitsarenowthethirdandfourthquartersof2011. Thisadditional
1,500MWcapacitywillincreasesupplyoptions,althoughBruceareasupplywillnotbe
abletooperateatfullcapacityuntiltheBrucetoMiltontransmissionlineiscomplete
whichisexpectedin2012.
Surplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)isexpectedtocontinueovertheforecasttimeframe,
especiallyduringthesummersof2010and2011whenbaseloadcapacityisexpectedtoexceedforecastminimumdemand. Duringthesetimesofsurplus,theprovincerelies
heavilyonitsabilitytoexport. Plannedoutagestoseveralcircuitsmakingupthe
OntarioNewYorkinterconnectionatNiagaraarecurrentlybeingconsideredfor
NovemberandDecember2010. Ifapproved,theseoutageswillreduceOntariosability
toexportpower,andincreasethelikelihoodofSBG. Thecurrentforecastincludesan
updatedexportassumptionrecognizingtheevolvingconditionsonOntarios
interconnections.
Overthenext18months,theIESOcontinuestoexpectarelativelyhighlikelihoodof
surplusconditionsinsummeroffpeakperiods,comparedtothewinterandshoulder
periodmonths.Limitedprecipitationthispastwinterandspringhascontributedto
uncertaintyaroundhydroelectriccapabilityoverthesummermonthsandlowerthan
forecasthydroelectricproductionwouldreducesurplusconditions.
Demandgrowthoverthelastdecadehasresultedinsomearealoadsreachingor
exceedingthecapabilityofthelocaltransmissionsystem. Toalleviatethesituation,
severallocalloadsupplyimprovementprojectswillcomeinserviceoverthenext18
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monthstorelieveloadingsofexistingtransmissioninfrastructureandprovide
additionalcapacityforfutureloadgrowth.
ThroughouttheOutlookperiod,demandwillbeshapedbythreemainfactors:the
economy,conservationandthegrowthinembeddedgenerationfromOntarios
renewableinitiatives.AlthoughtherisksofOntarioseconomyslippingbackinto
recessionhavemoderated,worldeconomiesremainfragileduetohighnationaldebt
loads,highoilpricesandtheprospectsofhigherborrowingcosts.WhileCanadahas
reportedlyfaredbetterthanmanyothercountries,Ontariosexportbased
manufacturingsectorhasseenitscompetitivepositionunderminedbytheriseinvalue
oftheCanadiandollar.
EnergydemandinOntarioisexpectedtoshowmodestgrowthin2010and2011with
increasesof1.3percentand1.0percentrespectively. Thegrowthwillcomefroma
broadbasedexpansionoftheeconomy.Themanufacturingsectorisexpectedtoshow
anincreaseover2009butisexpectedtolagtherestoftheeconomyasindustrialdemandisnotexpectedtoreturntoprerecessionarylevelsduetothehighCanadiandollarand
slowinternationalgrowth. Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainfairlyflatasgrowthis
offsetbytargetedconservationprograms.
Recentlyannouncedgovernmenttargetsforconservation,whoseimpactsareexpected
toshowbeginningJanuary2011,willfacilitatethelongertermreductionofpeak
demandandmoderatethegrowthofenergydemandacrosstheprovince. These
conservationtargetswillbemetthroughprogramsdeliveredbylocalutilities,andthe
OntarioPowerAuthoritywithoversightfromtheOntarioEnergyBoard. Theseefforts,
incombinationwithimprovedenergyefficiencyandthedeploymentofsmartmeters,
willresultinbothlowerconsumptionandashiftinconsumptionpatterns.
Thefollowingtablesummarizesthekeydemandnumbers.
SeasonNormal Weather Peak
(MW)
Extreme Weather Peak
(MW)
Summer 2010 23,498 25,998
Winter 2010-11 22,473 23,782
Summer 2011 23,464 25,938
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Conclusions & Observations
Thefollowingconclusionsandobservationsarebasedontheresultsofthisassessment.
DemandForecast
Electricitydemandisexpectedtoexperienceanincreasein2010and2011. GrowthwillbeslowasOntariosenergyintensiveexportbasedindustrieslagtherestoftheeconomy.
Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainflatthroughouttheforecast. Conservationprogramstargetingpeakdemand,thegrowthinembeddedgenerationandtimeofuserateswilloffset
theincreasesduetopopulationandbuildingstockgrowth.
Withlowerpeakdemandlevelssystemreliabilitywillremainrobust. Althoughhighpeakdemandsarelikelyunderextremeweatherconditionstheywillnotposeanyprovincewide
reliabilityconcerns.
Lowminimumdemandperiodsremainaconcernastheyincreasethelikelihoodofsurplusbaseloadgeneration. Thiswillpersistthroughouttheforecast.
ResourceAdequacy
Reserverequirementsareexpectedtobemetforallbutoneweekinboththefirmandplannednormalweatherscenario. Thisisduetotwomajorgeneratorplannedoutagesand
onemajortransmissionoutageresultinginbottledcapacity.
Anumberofgeneratingunitsarescheduledtoreturntoservicefromplannedoutagebeforesummer2010.
Planstoderegisterfourcoalgenerationunitsbylate2010willcontinueasannounced. PlansforthereturntoserviceoftworefurbishedBrucenuclearunitshavebeendelayedbyafew
monthstothethirdandfourthquartersof2011.
ThisOutlookdemonstratesthattheinitialemissionlimitsfromcoalpoweredgenerationshouldbeachievableoverthenext18monthperiodwithoutimpactingonreliability,
althoughthecompletestrategytoachievereductionsfor2010onwardshasnotbeen
confirmed.
Normal W eather Scenario Extreme Weather Scenario
PlannedScenario
Thereis1weekwherereserveislowerthanrequired
Thereare9weekswherereservesarelowerthanrequired.
FirmScenario
Thereis1weekwherereserveislowerthanrequired
Thereare12weekswherereservesarelowerthanrequired.
Underthenormalandextremeweatherscenarios,periodswheretheforecastreservesarenotsufficienttomeetrequirementsmayresultinrelianceonimports,therejectionofplanned
outagesbytheIESO,ortheuseofemergencyoperatingprocedures.
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TransmissionAdequacy
TheOntariotransmissionsystemwiththeplannedsystemenhancementsandscheduledmaintenanceoutagesisexpectedtobeadequatetosupplythedemandunderthenormal
weatherconditionsforecastfortheOutlookperiod.
Thesupplyreliabilityunderextremeweatherconditions,inparticulartotheGTA,willbefurtherimprovedwiththeadditionoftheHaltonHillsGeneratingStationinthethird
quarterof2010. Underextremeweatherconditionsthelongtermderatecurrentlyona
Trafalgarautotransformermayrequiresomeloadreductionmeasuresifadditionalelements
areoutofservice.
SeveralprojectsrelatingtolocalloadsupplyimprovementswillbeplacedinserviceduringthetimeframeofthisOutlooktohelprelieveloadingsofexistingtransformerstationsand
provideadditionaltransformercapacityforfutureloadgrowth.
The230kVcircuitBP76formsanintegralpartoftheOntario NewYorkinterfaceatNiagaraFalls. Duetothevariablenatureofitsflows,thisinterfaceisoneofthemostchallengingto
manageintheEasternInterconnection,keepingsystemoperatorsaroundtheGreatLakes,
whichincludetheIESO,NYISO,PJMandMISO,fullyengaged. Theongoingforcedoutage
oftheBP76interconnectionhascompoundedthecomplexitiesofthese reliability
coordinationefforts,addedtoOntariossurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)eventsandhas
materiallyledtoincreasednuclearreductionsandhydroelectricspillconditionsoverthelast
year. OutagesoftwootherlinesoftheNiagarainterconnection(PA301andPA302)are
currentlybeingplannedforNovemberandDecember2010. Theseoutageshavethepotential
toreducethescheduledtransfercapabilityoftheNiagarainterconnectiontozeroandalso
impacttheOntariotoMichigantransfers.
TransmissionoutagesscheduledinthisOutlookperiodintheBruce,Essa,Niagara,Northeast,Northwest,Ottawa,Southwest,TorontoandWestzoneswillcausereductionsto
thegridtransfercapabilityforperiodsoftime. Theresultinglimitreductionsalongwiththe
increaseofavailablegenerationinthoseareasmayresultintemporarilybottledgeneration
capacity.
Transmissionconstraintsoverthe230kVSarnia/WindsortoLondonareamaylimittheabilitytoutilizethegenerationresourcesinsouthwesternOntarioinconjunctionwith
importsfromMichigan. Thiscongestioncouldfurtherincreaseasaresultoftransmission
outagesandweatherconditions. ThescheduledshutdownoftwoLambtonGSunitsin
October2010isexpectedtoreducethecongestionovertheremainderofthisOutlookperiod.
HydroOneiscurrentlyinstallingadditionalreactivecompensationinwesternand
southwesternOntarioinpreparationfortheplannedshutdownofthemajorsouthern
Ontariocoalfiredunits.
Managing
grid
voltages
in
the
Northwest
has
always
required
special
attention,
but
with
the
significantlylowerdemand,ithasbeenincreasinglydifficulttomaintainanacceptable
voltageprofilewithoutcompromisingthesecurityandreliabilityofthesupply. TheIESO
hascontactedHydroOne,andisalsoinconversationswiththeOPA,ineffortstoexamine
theshortandlongtermsolutionstothismatter.
HydroOnesplantoenhancetheexistingMississagiTSandAlgomaTSgenerationrejectionschemes,scheduledforcompletionduringthelastquarterof2014,isexpectedtoimprovethe
powertransfercapabilityofthetransmissioncorridoreastofMississagi.
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RetirementoftheNortheast25Hzsystemwascompletedduringthefirstquarterof2010.Therearenomore25Hzfacilitiesoperatingintheprovince.
Operability
SBGconditionsareexpectedinsummer2010and2011. InNovemberandDecember2010,scheduledoutagesontheOntarioNewYorkinterconnectionatNiagarawillimpactOntariosabilitytoexportpower,andincreasethe
riskofSBG. Theexportassumptionhasbeenrevisedtoaccountforincreasedexportcapacity
viatheHVDCtietoQuebec,aswellasreducedexportcapacityduringsignificantplanned
outagestoOntariointerconnections.
EndofSection
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Caution and Disclaimer
Thecontentsofthesematerialsarefordiscussionandinformationpurposesandareprovidedas
iswithoutrepresentationorwarrantyofanykind,includingwithoutlimitation,accuracy,
completenessorfitnessforanyparticularpurpose. TheIndependentElectricitySystemOperator
(IESO)assumesnoresponsibilitytoyouoranythirdpartyfortheconsequencesofanyerrorsor
omissions. TheIESOmayrevisethesematerialsatanytimeinitssolediscretionwithoutnotice
toyou. AlthougheveryeffortwillbemadebytheIESOtoupdatethesematerialstoincorporate
anysuchrevisionsitisuptoyoutoensureyouareusingthemostrecentversion.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary .......................................................................................... iiiConc lusions & Observat ions .............................................................................. vTable of Contents .............................................................................................. ix Li st of Tables ...................................................................................................... xLi st of Figu res .................................................................................................... x1.0 Introduct ion ............................................................................................ 12.0 Updates to This Outlook .......................................................................... 3
2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast .................................................................................... 32.2 Updates to Resources ............................................................................................... 32.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook ............................................................................... 32.4 Updates to Operability Outlook .................................................................................. 3
3.0 Demand Forecast ..................................................................................... 54.0 Resource Adequacy Assessment ............................................................. 7
4.1 Committed and Contracted Generation Resources ....................................................... 74.2 Summary of Scenario Assumptions ............................................................................ 84.3 Planned Scenario with Normal and Extreme Weather ................................................... 94.4 Firm Scenario with Normal and Extreme Weather ...................................................... 104.5 Comparison of Resource Scenarios........................................................................... 10
5.0 Transm iss ion Reli ab ili ty Assessment .................................................... 13 5.1 Transmission and Load Supply Projects .................................................................... 135.2 Transmission Outages ............................................................................................. 135.3 Transmission System Adequacy ............................................................................... 14
6.0 Operab il it y Assessment ......................................................................... 217.0 His tor ical Rev iew ................................................................................... 23
7.1 Weather and Demand Historical Review ................................................................... 237.2 Hourly Resource Contributions at Time of Weekday Peak ........................................... 237.3 Report on Initiatives ............................................................................................... 267.4 Variation from Previous Year ................................................................................... 26
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List of Tables
Table 3.1: Forecast Summary ................................................................................................ 5Table 4.1 Existing Generation Resources as of May 5, 2010 ..................................................... 7 Table 4.2 Committed and Contracted Generation Resources .................................................... 8Table 4.3 Summary of Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................... 9Table 4.4 Summary of Available Resources ........................................................................... 10List of Figures
Figure 4.1 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather ..... 9Figure 4.2 Reserve Above Requirement: Firm Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather ........ 10Figure 4.3 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Present Outlook vs. Previous
Outlook ...................................................................................................................... 11Figure 5.1 Greater Toronto Area Electricity System................................................................ 15Figure 6.1 Minimum Demand and Baseload Generation ......................................................... 21Figure 7.2.1 Wind Contributions at the Time of Weekday Peak ............................................... 24Figure 7.2.2 Hydro Contributions (Energy and Operating Reserve) at the Time of Weekday Peak
................................................................................................................................. 24Figure 7.2.3 Imports into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak ............................................. 25Figure 7.2.4 Net Interchange into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak ................................. 26
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1.0 Introduction
ThisOutlookcoversthe18monthperiodfromJune2010toNovember2011andsupersedesthe
lastOutlookreleasedinFebruary2010.
Thepurposeofthe18MonthOutlookis:
ToadvisemarketparticipantsoftheresourceandtransmissionreliabilityoftheOntarioelectricitysystem;
Toassesspotentiallyadverseconditionsthatmightbeavoidedthroughadjustmentorcoordinationofmaintenanceplansforgenerationandtransmissionequipment;and
Toreportoninitiativesbeingputinplacetoimprovereliabilitywithinthe18monthtimeframeofthisOutlook.
ThecontentsofthisOutlookfocusontheassessmentofresourceandtransmissionadequacy.
AdditionalsupportingdocumentsarelocatedontheIESOwebsiteat
http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/monthsYears/monthsAhead.asp
ThisOutlookpresentsanassessmentofresourceandtransmissionadequacybasedonthestated
assumptions,usingthedescribedmethodology. Readersmayenvisionotherpossiblescenarios,
recognizingtheuncertaintiesassociatedwithvariousinputassumptions,andareencouragedto
usetheirownjudgmentinconsideringpossiblefuturescenarios.
SecurityandAdequacyAssessmentsarepublishedontheIESOwebsiteonaweeklyanddaily
basis,andprogressivelysupersedeinformationpresentedinthisreport.
ReadersareinvitedtoprovidecommentsonthisOutlookreportortogivesuggestionsastothe
contentoffuturereports. Todoso,pleasecontactusat:
TollFree: 18884487777 Tel: 9054036900 Fax: 9054036921 Email:[email protected].
EndofSection
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2.0 Updates to This Outlook
2.1 Updates to Demand Forecast
Thedemandforecastwasbasedonactualdemand,weatherandeconomicdatathroughtothe
endofFebruary2010. Theeconomicoutlookhasbeenupdatedbasedonthemostrecentdata.
ActualweatheranddemanddataforMarchandAprilhavebeenincludedinthetables.
2.2 Updates to Resources
Installedcapacityhasincreasedby296MWasaresultofthefollowingchanges:
Nuclearupgrade(+20MW) RetirementofWawaitin25Hz (11MW) ThoroldCogenerationProject(+287MW) TheconversionofFortFrances(47MW)fromgastobiomass
TheassessmentusesplannedgeneratoroutagesassubmittedbymarketparticipantstotheIESOsIntegratedOutageManagementSystem(IOMS). ThisOutlookisbasedonsubmitted
generationoutageplansasofApril21,2010.
2.3 Updates to Transmission Outlook
Thelistoftransmissionprojects,plannedtransmissionoutagesandactualexperiencewithforced
transmissionoutageshavebeenupdatedfromtheprevious18MonthOutlook. ForthisOutlook,
transmissionoutageplanssubmittedtotheIOMSasofMarch25,2010wereused.
2.4 Updates to Operabil ity Outlook
Aforecastofsurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)conditionsforthenext18monthshasbeen
updatedwithsubmittedgenerationoutageplansasofApril21,2010. Theexpectedcontribution
tobaseloadfromvariableresourcessuchashydroelectricandwindgenerationhasalsobeen
updatedtoreflectthemostrecentinformation.
EndofSection
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3.0 Demand Forecast
TheIESOisresponsibleforforecastingelectricitydemandontheIESOcontrolledgrid. This
demandforecastcoverstheperiodJune2010toNovember2011andsupersedestheprevious
forecastreleasedFebruary2010. Tablescontainingsupportinginformationarecontainedinthe
2010Q2OutlookTablesspreadsheet.
ElectricitydemandisexpectedtoincreaseovertheforecasthorizonastheOntarioeconomy
experiencesgrowththroughout201011. Industrialdemandwillnotreturntoprerecession
levelsbutwillshowimprovementoverthelowsof2009. Thehighdollarwillcontinuetoactasa
moderatoronOntarioselectricallyintensiveexportbasedindustries.
Peakdemandsareexpectedtoremainflatovertheforecasthorizonasconservationprograms,
thegrowthinembeddedgenerationandtimeofuserateswillacttooffsetincreasesfrom
economicanddemographicgrowth.
Thefollowingtableshowstheseasonalpeaksandannualenergydemandovertheforecast
horizonoftheOutlook.
Table 3.1: Forecast Summ ary
Season Normal Weather Peak (MW) Extreme Weather Peak (MW)
Summer 2010 23,498 25,998
Winter 2010-11 22,473 23,782
Summer 2011 23,464 25,938
Year Normal Weather Energy (TWh) % Growth in Energy
2006 Energy 152.3 -1.9%
2007 Energy 151.6 -0.5%
2008 Energy 148.9 -1.8%
2009 Energy 140.4 -5.7%
2010 Energy (Forecast) 142.2 1.3%
2011 Energy (Forecast) 143.6 1.0%
ForecastDetails
Thecompaniondocument,theOntarioDemandForecast,looksatdemandinmoredetail. It
containsthefollowing:
detailsonthedemandforecast, analysisofhistoricaldemand, discussionoftheimpactofthedriversaffectingdemand.
ThedatacontainedintheOntarioDemandForecastdocumentareincludedinthe2010Q2
OutlookTablesspreadsheet.
EndofSection
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4.0 Resource Adequacy Assessment
Thissectionprovidesanassessmentoftheadequacyofresourcestomeettheforecastdemand.
Thekeymessagesare:
Whenreservesarebelowrequiredlevelswithpotentiallyadverseeffectsonthereliabilityofthegrid,theIESOhastheauthoritytorejectoutagesbasedontheirorderof
precedence.
Conversely,anopportunityexistsforadditionaloutageswhenreservesareaboverequiredlevels.
Theseactionsaddressshortagesandsurplusesofreservestoalargeextent.
Inrecognitionoftheuncertaintythatexistsregardingthefutureavailabilityofresources,two
resourcescenariosaredescribedinthissection:theFirmScenarioandthePlannedScenario
OverthecourseoftheOutlookperiodabout2,900MWofnewandrefurbishedsupplyis
scheduledtocomeintoservice.Mostofthenewsupplyprojectshavestartedtheir
commissioningphaseorareintheconstructionphase.
TheexistinginstalledgeneratingcapacityissummarizedinTable4.1. Thisexcludescapacitythat
iscommissioning.
Table 4.1 Existing Generation R esources as of May 5, 2010
Fuel Type
Total
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Forecast
Capability at
Summer
Peak* (MW)
Number of
Stations
Change in
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Change
in
Stations
Nuclear 11,446 10,767 5 20 0
Hydroelectric 7,903 5,817 70 -11 0Coal 6,434 6,161 4 0 0
Oil / Gas 8,792 7,242 27 240 0
Wind 1,084 137 8 0 0
Biomass / Landfill Gas 122 47 6 47 1
Total 35,781 30,170 120 296 1
* Actual Capability may be less as a result of transmission constraints
4.1 Commit ted and Contracted Generation Resources
Table4.2summarizesgenerationthatisscheduledtocomeintoservice,beupgradedorshut
downwithintheOutlookperiod. ThisincludesgenerationprojectsintheIESOsConnection
AssessmentandApprovalProcess(CAA)thatareunderconstructionandprojectscontractedbytheOPA. DetailsregardingtheIESOsCAAprocessandthestatusoftheseprojectscanbefound
ontheIESOswebsiteathttp://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/connassess/ca.asp.
TheestimatedeffectivedateinTable4.2indicatesthedateonwhichadditionalcapacityis
assumedtobeavailabletomeetOntariodemandorshutdown. Forprojectsthatareunder
contract,theestimatedeffectivedateisthebestestimateofthedatewhenthecontractrequires
theadditionalcapacitytobeavailable. Ifaprojectisdelayedtheestimatedeffectivedatewillbe
thebestestimateofthecommercialinservicedatefortheproject.
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Table 4.2 Comm itted and Contracted Generation Resources
Firm
(MW)
Planned
(MW)
Halton Hills Generating Station Southwest Gas 2010-Q3 Commissioning 632 632
Shutdown of Lambton G1 and G2 West Coal 2010-Q4 -970 -970
Shutdown of Nanticoke G3 and G4 Southwest Coal 2010-Q4 -980 -980
Return of Sandy Falls as 60 Hz plant Northeast Water 2010-Q4 ConstructionReturn of Lower Stur
pacitCa
5geon as 60 Hz plant Northeast Water 2010-Q4 Construction 14
Return of Wawaitin as 60 Hz plant Northeast Water 2010-Q4 Construction 15
Hound Chute Northeast Water 2010-Q4 Construction 10
Grid-connected FIT Projects West Wind 2010Q4 At Various Stages 166
Raleigh Wind Energy Centre West Wind 2011-Q1 Construction 78
Leamington Pollution Control Plant West Oil 2011-Q1 Approvals & Permits 2
Bruce Unit 2 Bruce Uranium 2011-Q3 2011-Q1 Construction 750
Grid-connected FIT Projects Northeast Wind 2011-Q1 At Various Stages 60
Grid-connected FIT Projects West Wind 2011-Q1 At Various Stages 49
Grid-connected FIT Projects Southwest Wind 2011-Q2 At Various Stages 69
Becker Cogeneration Northwest Biomass 2011-Q3 Approvals & Permits 15
Bruce Unit 1 Bruce Uranium 2011-Q4 2011-Q3 Construction 750
Grid-connected FIT Projects Southwest Wind 2011-Q3 At Various Stages 125
Kruger Energy Chatham Wind Project Southwest Wind 2011-Q4 Approvals & Permits 101
Total -1 ,3 1 8 8 9 0
ConsideredEstimated
Change
(PreviousProponent/Project Name Zone Fuel Type Effective
DateReported
Date)
Project Status
NotestoTable4.2:1. ShadingindicatesachangefromthepreviousOutlook.2. Thetotalmaynotaddupduetorounding. Totaldoesnotincludeinservicefacilities.3. Projectstatusprovidesanindicationoftheprojectprogress. Themilestonesusedare:
a. ConnectionAssessment theprojectisundergoinganIESOsystemimpactassessmentb. Approvals&Permits theproponentisacquiringmajorapprovalsandpermitsrequired
tostartconstruction(e.g.environmentalassessment,municipalapprovalsetc.)
c. Construction theprojectisunderconstructiond. Commissioning theprojectisundergoingcommissioningtestswiththeIESO
4.2 Summ ary of Scenario Assumptions
Inordertoassessfutureresourceadequacy,theIESOmustmakeassumptionsontheamountof
availableresources. TheOutlookconsiderstwoscenarios:aFirmScenarioandaPlanned
Scenario
as
compared
in
Table
4.3
BothscenariosstartingpointistheexistinginstalledresourcesshowninTable4.1.Theplanned
scenarioassumesthatallresourcesthatarescheduledtocomeintoserviceareavailableoverthe
studyperiodwhiletheFirmScenarioonlyassumesthosescheduledtocomeintoserviceoverthe
first3months. Bothscenariosrecognizethatresourcesthatareinservicearenotavailableduring
timesforwhichthegeneratorhassubmittedplannedoutages.Whatisalsoconsideredforboth
scenariosisthegeneratorplannedshutdownorretirementwhichhashighcertaintyof
happeninginthefuture. TheFirmandPlannedScenariosalsodifferintheirassumptions
regardingtheamountofdemandmeasuresandgenerationcapacity.
Thegenerationcapabilityassumptionsareasfollows:
Hydroelectric
capability
(including
energy
and
operating
reserve)
is
based
on
median
historicalvaluesduringweekdaypeakdemandhoursfromMay2002toMarch2010.
Thermalgeneratorscapacityandenergycontributionsarebasedonmarketparticipantsubmissions,includingplannedoutages,expectedforcedoutageratesandseasonal
deratings.
ForwindgenerationthemonthlyWindCapacityContribution(WCC)valuesareusedatthetimeofweekdaypeak,whiletotalenergycontributionisassumedtobe30%.
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Table 4.3 Summ ary of Scenario Assumptions
Total Capacity Total Capacity
35,781 MW 35,781 MW
All
Only Capacity Changes,
Generator shutdowns or
retirements, Commissioning
Generators and Generators
starting in the first 3 months
890 MW -1,318 MW
Incremental Existing
1114 MW 699 MWDemand Measures
Incremental growth of 150 MW on peak
Incremental
Incremental
Deman
dForecast Conservation
Embedded Generation
Incremental growth of 128 MW on peak
Assumptions Planned Scenario Firm Scenario
Resource
Existing Installed
Resources
New Generation and
Capacity Changes
4.3 Planned Scenario w ith Normal and Extreme Weather
ReserveAboveRequirementlevels,whichrepresentthedifferencebetweenAvailableResources
andRequiredResources,areshowninFigure4.1.
Figure 4.1 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
06 Jun 2010 05 Sep 2010 05 Dec 2010 06 Mar 2011 05 Jun 2011 04 Sep 2011
ReserveA
Week Ending
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
bo
veRequirement[MW]
Planned ScenarioNormal Weather
Reserve Above Requirement = Available Resources - (Demand + R equired Reserve)
Planned ScenarioExtreme Weather
Reserve Above Requirement = Available Resources - (Demand + R equired Reserve)
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4.4 Firm Scenario w ith Normal and Extreme Weather
ReserveAboveRequirementlevels,whichrepresentthedifferencebetweenAvailableResources
andRequiredResources,areshowninFigure4.2.
Figure 4.2 Reserve Above Requirement: Firm Scenario with Normal vs. Extreme Weather
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
06 Jun 2010 05 Sep 2010 05 Dec 2010 06 Mar 2011 05 Jun 2011 04 Sep 2011
ReserveAboveRequirement[
Week Ending
8,000
10,000
MW]
Firm ScenarioExtreme Weather
Firm ScenarioNormal Weather
Reserve Above Requirement = Available Resources - (Demand + R equired Reserve)
4.5 Comparison of Resource Scenarios
Table4.4showsasnapshotoftheforecastavailableresources,underthetwoscenarios,atthe
timeofthesummerandwinterpeakdemandsduringtheOutlook.
Themonthlyforecastofenergyproductioncapability,asprovidedbymarketparticipants,is
includedinthe2010Q2OutlookTablesAppendixA,TableA7.
Table 4.4 Summ ary of Available Resources
Firm
Scenario
Planned
Scenario
Firm
Scenario
Planned
Scenario
Firm
Scenario
Planned
Scenario1 Installed Resources (MW) 35,781 35,781 34,463 34,751 34,463 35,805
2 Imports (MW) 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Total Resources (MW) 35,781 35,781 34,463 34,751 34,463 35,805
4 Total Reductions in Resources (MW) 7,435 7,435 3,986 4,264 5,646 6,203
5 Demand Measures (MW) 699 951 699 1,042 699 1,114
6 Available Resources (MW) 29,045 29,297 31,176 31,529 29,516 30,716
NotesSummer Peak 2010 Winter Peak 2011 Summer Peak 2011
Description
NotestoTable4.4:
1. InstalledResources: Thisisthetotalgenerationcapacityassumedtobeinstalledatthetimeofthesummerandwinterpeaks.
2. Imports: TheamountofexternalcapacityconsideredtobedeliveredtoOntario.3. TotalResources: ThesumofInstalledResources(line1)andImports(line2).4. TotalReductionsinResources: Representthesumofderatings,plannedoutages,limitationsdueto
transmissionconstraints,generationconstraintsduetotransmissionoutages/limitationsandallowance
forcapabilitylevelsbelowratedinstalledcapacity.
5. DemandMeasures: Theamountofdemandavailabletobereduced.6. AvailableResources: EqualsTotalResources(line3)minusTotalReductionsinResources(line4)plus
DemandMeasures(line5).
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ComparisonoftheWeeklyAdequacyAssessmentsforthePlannedScenario
Figure4.3providesacomparisonbetweentheforecastReserveAboveRequirementvaluesinthe
presentOutlookandtheforecastReserveAboveRequirementvaluesinthepreviousOutlook
publishedonFebruary23,2010. Thedifferenceismainlyduetothechangestooutages,in
servicedelaysandthechangeinthedemandforecast.
Figure 4.3 Reserve Above Requirement: Planned Scenario with Present Outlook vs. Previous
Outlook
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
06 Jun 2010 05 Sep 2010 05 Dec 2010 06 Mar 2011 05 Jun 2011 04 Sep 2011
Rese
rveAboveRequirement[MW]
Week Ending
Previous Outlook
Planned Scenario
Present OutlookPlanned Scenario
Reserve Above Requirement = Available Resources - (Demand + R equired Reserve)
Normal W eather
ResourceadequacyrisksarediscussedindetailintheMethodologytoPerformLongTerm
Assessments(IESO_REP_0266).
EndofSection
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5.0 Transmission Reliability Assessment
ThissectionprovidesanassessmentofthereliabilityoftheOntariotransmissionsystemforthe
Outlookperiod. Thetransmissionreliabilityassessmenthasthreekeyobjectives:
ToidentifyallmajortransmissionandloadsupplyprojectsthatareplannedforcompletionduringtheOutlookperiodandtopresenttheirreliabilitybenefits.
Toforecastanyreductionintransmissioncapacitybroughtaboutbyspecifictransmissionoutages. Foramajortransmissioninterfaceorinterconnection,thereductionintransmission
capacityduetoanoutageconditioncanbeexpressedasachangeinthebaseflowlimit
associatedwiththeinterfaceorinterconnection.
ToidentifyequipmentoutageeventsonthegridthatcouldrequirecontingencyplanningbymarketparticipantsorbytheIESO. Plannedtransmissionoutagesarereviewedin
conjunctionwithmajorplannedresourceoutagesandthescheduledcompletionofnew
generationandtransmissionprojectstoidentifytransmissionreliabilityrisks.
5.1 Transmission and Load Supply Projects
TheIESOrequirestransmitterstoprovideinformationonthetransmissionprojectsthatare
plannedforcompletionwithinthe18monthperiod. Constructionofseveraltransmission
reinforcementsareplannedforserviceduringtheOutlookperiod.Majortransmissionandload
supplyprojectsplannedtobeinserviceareshowninAppendixB. Projectsthatareinserviceor
whosecompletionhasbeendeferredwellbeyondtheperiodofthisOutlookarenotshown. The
listincludesonlythetransmissionprojectsthatrepresentmajormodificationsorareconsidered
toprovidesignificantimprovementtosystemreliability.Minortransmissionequipment
replacementsorrefurbishmentsareexcluded.
Demandgrowthoverthelastdecadehasresultedinsomearealoadsreachingorexceedingthe
capabilityofthelocaltransmissionsystem. Toaddressthisproblemandprovideadditional
transmissioncapacityforfutureloadgrowth,Ontariotransmittersanddistributorshaveinitiated
planstobuildneworreplaceexistingtransformerstationsandreinforcethetransmissionsystem
asnecessary.
TheseneededreinforcementswereconfirmedbytheIESOduringrelatedconnection
assessments. Severaloftheseprojectsarecurrentlyunderconstructionandplannedforinservice
duringtheperiodofthisOutlook.
5.2 Transmission Outages
Theassessmentoftransmissionoutagesislimitedtothosewithascheduleddurationofgreater
thanfivedaysortothoseoutagesthatarepartofaprojectwherethecombinedscheduled
durationisgreaterthanfivedays. Asthestarttimeoftheoutageapproaches,actualoutage
scheduleandadditionaloutagerequirements,aswellasoutageswithascheduleddurationof
fivedaysorlesscouldimposefurthertransmissioncapacityrestrictions. Priortoapprovingand
releasinganoutage,theIESOwillreassesstheoutageforpotentialsystemimpacts,takinginto
accountallcurrentandforecastedconditions.
TheIESOsassessmentofthetransmissionoutageplansisshowninAppendixC,TablesC1to
C10. Inthesetables,eachelementisassessedindividuallybyindicatingthepossibleimpactsand
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thereductionintransmissioninterfaceandinterconnectionlimits.Wheremultipleoutagesare
scheduledduringthesameperiod,thecombinedeffectofalloutagesonthereductionin
transmissioninterfaceandinterconnectionlimitsispresented.Wheremultipleoutagesare
scheduledduringthesameperiodandreliabilityisaffected,theIESOwillrequestthetransmitter
toreschedulesomeoftheoutages. Themethodologyusedtoassessthetransmissionoutage
plansisdescribedintheIESOdocumenttitledMethodologytoPerformLongTerm
Assessments(IESO_REP_0266).
Theplannedtransmissionoutagesarereviewedincorrelationwithmajorplannedresource
outagesandscheduledcompletiondatesofnewgenerationandtransmissionprojects. This
allowstheIESOtoidentifytransmissionsystemreliabilityconcernsandtohighlightthoseoutage
plansthatneedtobeadjusted. Achangetoanoutagemayincludereschedulingtheoutage,
reducingthescheduleddurationorreducingtherecalltime.
Thisassessmentwillalsoidentifyanyresourcesthathavepotentialorareforecasttobe
constrainedduetotransmissionoutageconditions. Transmittersandgeneratorsareexpectedto
haveamutualinterestindevelopinganongoingarrangementtocoordinatetheiroutage
planningactivities. TransmissionoutagesthatmayaffectgenerationaccesstotheIESO
controlledgridshouldbecoordinatedwiththegeneratoroperatorsinvolved,especiallyattimes
whendeficiencyinreserveisforecast. UndertheMarketRules,wheretheschedulingofplanned
outagesbydifferentmarketparticipantsconflictssuchthatbothoralloutagescannotbe
approvedbytheIESO,theIESOwillinformtheaffectedmarketparticipantsandrequestthat
theyresolvetheconflict. Iftheconflictremainsunresolved,theIESOwilldeterminewhichofthe
plannedoutagescanbeapprovedaccordingtothepriorityofeachplannedoutageasdetermined
bytheMarketRulesdetailedinChapter5,Sections6.4.13to6.4.18. ThisOutlookcontains
transmissionoutageplanssubmittedtotheIESOasofMarch25,2010.
5.3 Transmission System Adequacy
Generally,IESOOutlooksidentifytheareasoftheIESOcontrolledgridwheretheprojected
extremeweatherloadingisexpectedtoapproachorexceedthecapabilityofthetransmission
facilitiesfortheconditionsforecastintheplanningperiod. Wheretheloadingisprojectedto
exceedthecapabilityofthetransmissionfacilities,thereisalsoanincreasedriskofload
interruptions.
TheOntariogenerationmixischangingrapidlywiththeadditionofnewformsofresourcesand
theplannedshutdownofcoalresources. Thetransmissionsystemneedstoevolveto
accommodatethesupplymixchangesandtheincorporationofnewgenerationwhile
maintainingthereliabledeliveryofelectricitytotheconsumers. Overthelastfewyears,Hydro
One,theOPAandtheIESOhavebeencollaboratinginthedevelopmentofanumberof
transmissionenhancementsrequiredtoaccommodatethesechanges. Someofthesetransmission
enhancementsarescheduledtocomeintoserviceduringtheperiodofthisOutlook.
TheIESOworkswithHydroOneandotherOntariotransmitterstoidentifythehighestpriority
transmissionneeds,andtoensurethatthoseprojectswhoseinservicedatesareatriskaregiven
asmuchpriorityaspractical,especiallythoseaddressingreliabilityneedsforpeakdemand
periodsofthisOutlook.WehavealsobeenworkingcloselywiththeOPAtospecifythe
transmissionenhancementslocation,timingandrequirementstosatisfyreliabilitystandards.
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Withinthecontextofthisapproach,theOntariotransmissionsystemwiththeplannedsystem
enhancementsandknowntransmissionoutagesisexpectedtobeadequatetosupplythedemand
underthenormalweatherconditionsforecastfortheOutlookperiod.
5.3.1 Toronto and Surrounding Area
TheGreaterTorontoArea(GTA)electricitysupplyismainlyprovidedbytheTrafalgar,
Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywood500/230kVautotransformers,Pickeringgenerationstation
(GS)andotherlocalresourcesasdepictedinFigure5.1. Theavailabilityofthesefacilitiesis
criticaltoensuringreliableelectricitysupplyforTorontoandsurroundingarea.
Figure 5.1 Greater Toronto Area Electricity System
ThereliablesupplyofdemandintheGTAunderextremeweatherconditionsforecastedforthe
Outlookperiodrequiresaminimumnumberof500/230kVautotransformersatTrafalgar,
Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywoodandPickeringunitsinserviceatratedcapabilities. Forthe
summer2010forecastedpeakdemand,all500/230kVautotransformersareexpectedtobein
service. TheprojectedloadingsontheTrafalgar,Claireville,ParkwayandCherrywood500/230
kVautotransformers,undernormalweatherconditions,areexpectedtobewithintheircapability
duringtheseplannedoutages. Underextremeweatherconditions,duetoalongtermderated
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Trafalgarautotransformer,someloadreductionmeasuresmayberequiredtomanageadditional
contingencies.
ThecapabilityoftheGTA500/230kVautotransformersissufficienttosupplythesummer2010
normalandextremeweatherdemand. IfanyoneGTA500/230kVautotransformerisforcedoutofservice,thecapabilityoftheremainingtransformerswillsufficeaslongasatleastfour
Pickeringunitsareinserviceatthetimeofthecontingency. Similarly,atleastfivePickering
unitswouldneedtobeinservicetooffsetthelossoftwo500/230kVautotransformers.
Subsequentautotransformer,generationoutagesorderatescouldresultinmitigatingmeasures
beingrequiredtoreducetheremainingGTA500/230kVautotransformersloadingswithintheir
capability.
PortlandsEnergyCentreprovidesloadingreliefmainlytothe230/115kVLeaside
autotransformersbutalsototheCherrywood500/230kVautotransformers. GorewayStation
providessignificantloadingrelieftotheClaireville500/230kVautotransformers,especiallyin
caseofmultipleautotransformeroutages. TheplannedadditionofHaltonHillsGSinthethird
quarterof2010willfurtherreducethepeakloadingoftheTrafalgar500/230kVautotransformers
andallowformoreoperationalflexibility.
The230kVtransmissioncorridorbetweenTrafalgarTSandRichviewTSwhichsupplies
Brampton,MississaugaandpartsofCaledonandHaltonHillscouldbecomeloadedverycloseto
itscapabilityduringsummer2010underextremeweatherconditions. ThenewHurontario
switchingstationandtheexpansionofthe230kVlinesfromCardiffTSthatwasrecentlyplaced
inservicewillrelievetheloadingofthiscorridorandalleviatethisproblem.
TheYorkregionloadservingcapabilitywillbereinforcedwiththeadditionofYorkEnergy
Centrethatisscheduledtogoinserviceattheendof2011.
OutagesfortheClairevilleTSenhancementworkcontinueduringthecurrentOutlookperiod.
SomeoutageswillresultinsmallreductionstosouthernOntariotransmissioninterfacelimits.
5.3.2 Bruce and Southwest Zones
PlannedrefurbishmentsattheBrucegenerationstationandnewwindpowerresourcesin
southwesternOntariowillincreasegenerationcapacityintheBruceandSouthwestzones. The
neartermtransmissionreinforcementsrequiredtoaccommodatetheextragenerationareon
schedulewiththeinstallationofoneadditionalcapacitoratBuchanan.
Inadditiontotheneartermreinforcementsdescribedabove,interimmeasuresarebeingplanned
forthetimewhenBruceisoperatedwithsevenandeightunitsbeforetheproposed500kV
doublecircuitlinebetweenBruceandMiltonisavailable. Theinterimmeasuresincludethe
installationofadditionaldynamicvoltagecontrolfacilitiesatNanticokeandDetweiler,
scheduledtogoinserviceduringthesecondquarterof2011andwhennecessary,maximizing
the
available
reactive
power
from
the
remaining
Nanticoke
units.
These
measures
together
with
thenewshuntcapacitors,themodificationsoftheexistingBrucespecialprotectionsystemand
plannedshutdownoffourcoalfiredunitsinOctober2010willfurtherreducethepotentialfor
constrainedgeneration. Inthelongerterm,theproposed500kVlinefromBrucetoMiltonwill
providetherequiredtransmissioncapabilitytodeliverthefullbenefitsoftheBruce
refurbishmentprojectandthedevelopmentofnewrenewableresourcesinsouthwesternOntario.
Topreventlowvoltageconditionsinthe115kVtransmissionsystemintheWoodstockarea
duringsummerextremeweatherconditions,HydroOneisplanningtoaddanewtransformer
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stationandasecondsupplypointbyextendingthe230kVtransmissionlinesfromIngersollto
Woodstockareaandinstallinganew230/115kVtransformerstation. Theseplans,scheduledto
becompletedduringthesecondquarterof2011,willprovideanincreasedlevelofsupply
reliability,andsupportfurtherloadgrowthinthearea.
HydroOneiscurrentlyundertakingmajorupgradeworkatBurlingtonTSwhichwillresolve
limitationsinthestationsabilitytosupplytheBurlington115kVarealoads,allowfutureload
growthandyieldamoreflexibleconfiguration. Theremainingwork,whichincludesthe
replacementofall115kVbreakersandthereplacementoflimitingbussections,isscheduledto
becompletedbytheendofthefourthquarterof2012.
Theexisting115kVtransmissionfacilitiesintheGuelphareaareoperatingclosetocapacityand
thereislimitedcapabilityavailabletosupplyadditionalload.HydroOne,theaffected
transmitter,andtheOPAarereviewingvariousoptionsforenhancingtheoverallsupply
capabilitytotheGuelphareaandadecisiononthepreferredsolutionisexpectedinthefallof
2010.
AsolutionalsoremainsrequiredintheCambridgearea,asexistingtransmissioninfrastructureis
unabletomeettheIESOsloadrestorationcriteriafollowingacontingency. TheOPAis
reviewingaproposaltoinstallgasfiredgenerationcapacityatCambridgePrestonTS.
5.3.3 Niagara Zone and the New York Interconnection
ThecompletiondatefortransmissionreinforcementsfromtheNiagararegionintotheHamilton
Burlingtonareacontinuestobedelayed. ThisdelayimpactsboththeuseoftheavailableOntario
generationintheNiagaraareaandimportsintotheprovince,particularlyduringhotweather
andhighdemandperiods.
The230kVcircuitBP76formsanintegralpartoftheOntario NewYorkinterfaceatNiagara
Falls. Duetothevariablenatureofitsflows,thisinterfaceisoneofthemostchallengingto
manage
in
the
Eastern
Interconnection,
keeping
system
operators
around
the
Great
Lakes,
which
includetheIESO,NYISO,PJMandMISO,fullyengaged. Thelongtermforcedoutageofthe
BP76interconnectionhascompoundedthecomplexitiesofthesereliabilitycoordinationefforts,
addedtoOntariossurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)eventsandmateriallyledtoincreased
nuclearreductionsandhydroelectricspillconditionsoverthelastyear. Plannedoutagesoftwo
otherlinesoftheNiagarainterconnection(PA301andPA302)arecurrentlybeingplannedfor
NovemberandDecember2010. Theseoutageshavethepotentialtoreducethescheduled
transfercapabilityoftheNiagarainterconnectiontozeroandalsoimpacttheOntariotoMichigan
transfers. Inordertohelpfacilitatethesepotentialoutages,theIESOrecentlydirectedHydro
OnetoscheduleandcompletetheconstructionofabypassuntilthefailedR76voltageregulator
isreplaced. TheexpectedreturntoserviceofBP76withR76replacediscurrentlyDecember
2012.
5.3.4 East Zone and Ottawa Zone
SomeoutagesplannedoverthisOutlookperiodintheOttawaareawillreduceitssupply
capabilitybutnoloadreductionmeasuresareexpectedtoberequired.
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5.3.5 West Zone and the Michigan Interconnection
TransmissionconstraintsinthiszonemayrestrictresourcesinsouthwesternOntarioandimports
fromMichigan. ThisisevidentinthebottledgenerationamountsshownfortheBruceandWest
zonesinTablesA3andA6. TheplannedshutdownoftwoLambtonGScoalfiredunitswill
reduce,butnoteliminatetheamountofbottledgenerationinthiszone.
Phaseangleregulators(PARs)areinstalledontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionat
LambtonTS,representingtwoofthefourinterconnectionswithMichigan,butarenotcurrently
operationaluntilcompletionofagreementsbetweentheIESO,theMISO,HydroOneand
InternationalTransmissionCompany. Theexpectedinservicedateisnotknownatthistime.
TheoperationofthesePARsalongwiththePARontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionnear
Windsorwillcontrolflowstoalimitedextent,andassistinthemanagementofsystem
congestion.
ThecapabilitytocontrolflowsontheOntarioMichiganinterconnectionbetweenScottTSand
BunceCreekisunavailable. ThePARinstalledatBunceCreekinMichiganhasfailedandis
scheduledforreplacementbythebeginningofQ3in2010.
5.3.6 Northeast and Northwest Zones
ThetransmissioncorridoreastofMississagiTShasbeenexperiencingincreasedcongestiondue
totheadditionofnewresourcesandlackoftransmissionreinforcements. Itisexpectedthat
congestionwillincreaseevenfurtherwhenprojectscurrentlyunderconstructioninthearea
becomeoperational.
HydroOneisplanningtoimplementinthefourthquarterof2012someofthemodifications
recommendedbytheIESOtotheexistingMississagigenerationrejectionschemethathasthe
potentialtoalleviate,inthenearterm,theconstrainedgenerationwestofMississagi.
TofurtherreducethecongestioninnorthernOntarioandimprovethetransfercapability,Hydro
OneisplanningtoinstalladditionaldynamicreactivecompensationfacilitiesatPorcupineTS,in
thefourthquarterof2010andKirklandLakeTS,inthefirstquarterof2011. Inpreparationfor
additionalrenewablegenerationinnorthernOntario,HydroOneisplanningtoincreasethe
northsouthtransfercapabilitybyinstallingseriescompensationatNobelSS,proposedtogoin
serviceinthelastquarterof2010.
During2010,extensiveworkonthetransmissioncircuitsintheKenora FortFrancesareais
scheduled. TheassociatedoutageswillreducetheOntarioManitobaandOntarioMinnesota
interconnectiontransfercapacityandalsotheEastWesttransmissioninterfacecapability. The
reductionoftheEastWestTransferEast(EWTE)limitisexpectedtocontributetotheincreased
amountofbottledgenerationintheNorthwestzone.
ManaginggridvoltagesintheNorthwesthasalwaysrequiredspecialattention;withthe
significantlylowerdemands,itisincreasinglydifficulttomaintainanacceptablevoltageprofile
withoutcompromisingthesecurityandreliabilityofthesupply.
Overthepastyearithasbecomemoredifficulttomanagevoltagesthroughoutthetransmission
systeminnorthwesternOntario. Onseveraloccasionsnormaldispatchactionswereexhausted,
andexceptionalvoltagecontrolmeasureswererequired,includingthetemporaryremovalofone
ormoretransmissioncircuitsfromserviceduringlightloadorlowtransferconditionsto
maintainvoltageswithinacceptableranges. Thisreducedthegridsabilitytowithstand
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disturbancesandsubsequentlyunderminedthecustomerssupplyreliability.Additionalreactive
compensationisrequiredforvoltagecontrolinthezone.
TheIESOhascontactedHydroOne,andisalsoinconversationswiththeOPA,inaneffortto
examinetheshortandlongtermsolutionstothismatter.
5.3.7 Ontario 25 Hz SystemThe25HzsysteminnortheasternOntariowasdecommissionedduringthefirstquarterof2010.
Therearenomore25Hzfacilitiesoperatingintheprovince.
EndofSection
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6.0 Operability Assessment
TheIESOmonitorsexistingandemergingoperabilityissuesthatcouldpotentiallyimpactsystem
reliability. InMarch2010,unseasonablywarmtemperaturescontributedtolowerthanforecast
minimumdemands. Thisresultedinisolatedsurplusbaseloadgeneration(SBG)events,notably
overtheEasterlongweekend.
AforecastforSBGconditionsoverthenext18monthsispresentedbelow. Forecastminimum
demandcontinuestotrendlowerthaninpreviousyears. Overthenext18months,theIESO
expectstheriskofexperiencingSBGconditionswillbemostrelevantoverthesummerperiods.
Figure6.1showsprojectedweeklyminimumdemandagainsttheexpectedlevelofbaseload
generation. Baseloadgenerationassumptionshavebeenupdatedtoincludeexports,thelatest
plannedoutageinformation,andinservicedatesforneworrefurbishedgeneration. The
expectedcontributionfromselfschedulingandintermittentgenerationhasalsobeenupdatedto
reflectthelatestdata.Outputfromcommissioningunitsisexplicitlyexcludedfromthisanalysis
duetouncertaintyandhighlyvariablenatureofcommissioningschedules.
Figure 6.1 Minim um Demand and Baseload Generation
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
06-Jun-10
04-Jul-10
01-Au
14,000
16,000
g-10
29-Aug-10
26-Sep-10
24-Oct-10
21-Nov-10
19-Dec-10
16-Jan-11
13-Feb-11
13-Mar-11
10-Apr-11
08-May-11
05-Jun-11
03-Jul-11
31-Jul-11
28-Aug-11
25-Sep-11
23-Oct-11
20-Nov-11
MW
Minimum Weekl y Demand Basel oad Generation
NotableeventsinvolvingOntariosinterconnectionsoccurredin2009,includinglengthyplanned
outagesontheOntarioNewYorkinterfacethatsignificantlylimitedintertiecapacitytoboth
NewYorkandMichigan. Atthesametime,anew1,250MWtietoQuebecfacilitatedincreased
intertiecapacitytowardstheendoftheyear. Asaresultofthesedevelopments,andinlightof
similarplannedoutagestotheOntarioNewYorkinterfacecurrentlybeingassessedfor
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May 20, 2010 Publ ic Page 22
NovemberandDecember2010,the1,000MWexportassumptionthatwasusedinprevious
Outlooksisbeingrevised.
Goingforward,anominalexportassumptionof1,500MWwillbeappliedasadecrementto
baseloadgenerationunderlimited,ornointerconnectionplannedoutages. Undermore
significantinterconnectionplannedoutages1,suchastheNewYorkPA301andPA302outages
scheduledforNovemberandDecember2010,anexportassumptionof1,200MWwillbeapplied
toreflectthereducedexportcapabilityassociatedwiththeseplannedoutages. Theserevisednet
exportassumptionswerederivedfromanexaminationofhistoricalnetexportdataduring
periodsoflowOntariodemandfrom2008and2009,atvariouslevelsofaggregateexport
capabilityandarealsoreflectiveofexternalmarketsabilitytoabsorbenergyatthattime. In
recognitionofchangingmarketandsurplusbaseloadconditions,andtheirassociatedimpacton
netexportvolumes,theIESOintendstoreviewandreviseasrequiredthenetexport
assumptionsonanannualbasis.
EndofSection
1The 1,200 MW export assumption will be applied when forecast planned outages are expected to limit Ontarios
aggregate export capacity to between 1,400MW and 2,600 MW. For forecast planned outages that further limit export
capacity to below 1,400 MW, an export assumption value of 700 MW will be used. See Appendix C of the 18-Month
Outlook Tables for forecast reduction to major transmission interface limits, including interconnection interfaces.
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Figure 7.2.1 Wind Contribut ions at the Time of Weekday P eak
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
A pr-09 May-09 J un-09 J ul -0 9 A ug -09 Sep-09 Oct -09 N ov -09 Dec -09 J an- 10 F eb -10 Ma r-10
MW
Date
1,200
Actual Hourly Contribut ion
Actual Monthly M edian
Forecast Monthly M edian
Commercially Operable Capacity
Note: Commerciallyoperablecapacitydoesnotincludecommissioningunits. Thereforeactual
hourlycontributionmayexceedcommercialcapability.
Figure 7.2.2 Hydro Contributio ns (Energy and Operating Reserve) at the Time of W eekday Peak
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
Apr-09 M ay-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 N ov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 M ar-10
MWC
ontribution
Date
7,000
Forecast M onth ly Med ian
Actua l Month ly M ed ian
Actua l Hour ly Contr ibut ion
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Figure7.2.3showsimportsintoOntarioatthetimeofweekdaypeak. ThisyearOntario
experiencedasignificantreductionindemand. Lowerdemandsandsurplusconditionscreated
lowerpricesinOntariowhichmadeimportingintotheprovincelessattractivewhichiswhy
importswerelowerthanprevioushistoricvalues.
Figure 7.2.3 Im ports into Ontario at the Time of Week day Peak
0
50 0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Apr -09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul -09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct -09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10
MW
Date
Actual Monthl y Median
Actual Hourly Imports
Figure7.2.4showstheamountofnetimportsintoOntarioatthetimeofweekdaypeak,
excludingweekendsandholidays.NetInterchangeisthedifferencebetweentotalimportsinto
OntarioandtotalexportsoutofOntario. Ontariowas,onaverage,anetexporterfortheentire
studyperiod. Asstatedabove,thedriverswhichinfluencedlowerimportsalsoincentgreater
tradeoutoftheprovince. Undersurplusbaseloadgenerationconditions,themarketsinfluence
onexportingbecomesasignificantmitigatingfactor. UnfortunatelywhenOntariois
experiencingsurplus,ourneighboursareusuallyalsoexperiencingasurpluscondition,making
exportingdifficult.
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Figure 7.2.4 Net In terchange into Ontario at the Time of Weekday Peak
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Apr-09 M ay-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 N ov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10
MW
Date
Negat ive va lue ind icates w hen Ontar io was a net expor ter
Actua l Month ly M ed ianActua l Hour ly Net I mpor ts
7.3 Report on Initiatives
SinceNovember2009,theIESOsresourceschedulingintheneartermtimeframehasbeenbased
ontheaverage,ratherthanthepeak,demandforecastforallhourswheredemanddoesnot
typicallychangedramatically. Thischangeinmethodologyisanattempttoassistinreducing
SBGthroughmoreefficientresourcecommitments.
Centralizedwindforecastingisaninitiativedesignedtoallowforbetterforecastingofwind
productiontoensureamoreaccurateunitcommitmentoccurs. Pilotimplementation isexpected
tocommencebytheendof2010.
7.4 Variation from Previous Year
In2009Ontarioexperiencedasignificantincreaseininstancesofsurplusbaseloadgeneration
conditions. Thetwomajorfactorsthatcontributedtothisvariationare:
Higherhydroelectricproductionthanthepreviousyearasaresultofheavysnowfallandrainfall
Lowerdemandsduetomoderatesummertemperaturesaswellastheeconomicdeclinesofmanyindustrialloads
EndofDocument