if carbon stocks are up, who gets the credit ? a practical method of distinguishing between human...
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If carbon stocks are up, who gets the credit?
A practical method of distinguishing between human and natural factors.
Miko Kirschbaum1 & Annette Cowie2
[Miko [email protected]]CRC for Greenhouse Accounting, Australia
&1CSIRO Forestry and Forest Products, Canberra
2State Forests of NSW, Sydney
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How does biospheric carbon exchange differ from fossil-fuel emissions?
Two key aspects:
Reversibility
Human control
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Irreversibility of fossil-fuel emissions
Carbon stocks
Time (years)
Release
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Reversibility ofbiospheric net emissions
Carbon stocks
Max -
Min -
Time (years)
Release
Sequester
Release
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Full control of fossil-fuel emissions
Carbon stocks
Time (years)
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Shared control ofbiospheric net emissions
Carbon stocks
Max -
Min -
Time (years)Human
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Shared control ofbiospheric net emissions
Carbon stocks
Max -
Min -
Time (years)Human
Natural
Natural
Natural
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Shared control ofbiospheric net emissions
Carbon stocks
Max -
Min -
Time (years)Human
Natural
Natural
Natural
Averagecarbon
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The Marrakech Accord
“that accounting excludes removals resulting from:(a) elevated CO2 above pre-industrial
level; (b) indirect nitrogen deposition; &
(c) the dynamic effects of age structure resulting from activities and practices before 1990”
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The Marrakech Accord
The aim: to distinguish between “direct human” and “other” factors
But it is very difficult to factor out the sum total of interacting “other” factors
Easier to factor out the “direct human” factor
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Alternative C accounting
A - AverageC - CarbonS - Stocks
The ‘ACS’ scheme
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Alternative C accounting
Total C stocks
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
50
100
150
200
250
Car
bo
n s
tock
s (t
C h
a-1)
A-g biomassC stocks
Years
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Alternative C accounting
Kirschbaum et al. 2001
Total C stocks
ACS
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
50
100
150
200
250
Car
bo
n s
tock
s (t
C h
a-1)
A-g biomassC stocks
Years
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Alternative C accounting
Kirschbaum et al. 2001
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
50
100
150
200
250
Car
bo
n s
tock
s (t
C h
a-1)
Years
Credit
Delayed crediting
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Case studies
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Canada
Kurz and Apps 1999
An
nu
al c
arb
on
flu
x(M
tC y
r-1)
-100
0
100
200
300
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
-100
0
100
200
Biomass
DOM
Total
Relative to
199
0fo
ssil fu
el (%
)
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Canada
Kurz and Apps 1999
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Are
a d
istu
rbe
d (
Mh
a)
Insects Harvesting Total Fire
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Are
a d
istu
rbe
d (
Mh
a)
Insects Harvesting Total Fire
An
nu
al c
arb
on
flu
x(M
tC y
r-1)
-100
0
100
200
300
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
-100
0
100
200
Biomass
DOM
Total
Relative to
1990
foss
il fue
l (%)
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No land-use change
Carbon credit for creating national parks
Debit/credit for management changes that affect
average carbon stocks
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USA
Birdsey and Heath 1995
0
5
10
15
20
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
An
nu
al c
arb
on
flu
x(M
tC y
r-1)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Biomass
DOM
Total Re
lative to
19
90
fos
sil fue
ls (%)
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Land abandonment is a land-use change,
but occurred before 1990
Further land abandonmentis eligible
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New Zealand (1990)
Maclaren 1996
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 60 80
Age Class
Are
a (h
a)
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Ford-Robertson, pers. comm.
-50
0
50
100
1990 2000 2010 2020
C s
tock
s (M
tC)
100
200
300
Post 1990
Relative to
1990fo
ssil fuels (%
)
Replanted pre 1990Original
pre 1990
1990 2000 2010 2020
C f
lux
(MtC
yr-1
)
-5
0
5
10
Total estate
Pre 1990 plantations
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Pre-1990 plantations donot count
Post-1990 plantations count if the ramp-up is not yet completed
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Australia
•Production forests
•Plantations
•Land clearing
•Vegetation thickening
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Australia
•Production forests
•Plantations
•Land clearing
•Vegetation thickening
as for Canada
as for New Zealand
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Land clearing
•Clearing virgin forest
• Clearing previously cleared land (with land-use change)
•Cyclical re-clearing
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NCAS 2002
1990 1995 2000
Ca
rbo
n f
lux
(M
tC y
r-1)
0
10
20
30
1990 1995 2000
Are
a c
lea
red
('
00
0 h
a y
r-1)
100
200
300
400
Converted
Relative to
1990fo
ssil fuels (%
)
Recleared
0
20
40
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Areas subject toland-use change, or
intensification of land use, are counted
Areas just re-cleared have no land-use change
and are not counted
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Vegetation thickening
Burrows et al. 2002
Stand biomass (tC ha-1)
0 20 40 60
Bio
ma
ss in
cre
me
nt
(tC
ha-1
yr-1
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5Growth rate:
1.9% yr-1
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Changed burning regimeand grazing animals are
land-use changes,but occurred before 1990.
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Biospheric carbon storage
Is reversible
Summary
Only partly under human control
The ACS scheme is a practical way to factors out
the human component
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Thank you!