if likes were votes: an empirical study on italian administrative election

Fabio [.] Giglietto [@uniurb.it]Department of Communication Studies| LaRiCA | Università di Urbino Carlo Bo

If Likes were votes…an empirical study on Italian administrative elections

Comunicazione e civic engagement. Istituzioni, cittadini e spazi pubblici nella postmodernità22 e 23 settembre, Università La Sapienza, Roma

Summary

• Case presentation;• Research hypothesis;• Literature review;• Methodology;• Results;• Conclusions.


Case presentation

• Administrative election 15/16 May 2011– 9 provinces;– 1177 municipalities (23 provincial capital).


Research hypothesis

• H1: Is the popularity on Facebook a good predictor of a candidate electoral performance?

• H2: How variables such as candidate’s political party and area, population of the municipality, number of candidates, number of candidates with Facebook page, number of potential voters and actual voters turn out affects the relationship between this two main variables.


Literature review (1/2)

• A correlation between Facebook Likes and votes share was found in 2006 midterm elections and in 2008 presidential primaries (Williams & Gulati, 2007/2008/2009);

• In 2009, Tumasjan, Sprenger, et alt. claimed that the number of messages mentioning a party reflected the election result of federal election of the national parliament in Germany (2010)… BUT;

http://blogsandwikis.bentley.edu/politechmedia/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/apsa-2007-facebook.pdf

http://blogsandwikis.bentley.edu/politechmedia/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/apr-sept-1.pdf

http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=pn_wp&sei-redir=1#search=%22Williams%20%26%20Gulati%22

http://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM10/paper/viewFile/1441/1852

http://ssc.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/04/05/0894439311404119.abstract


Literature review (2/2)

• After 2010 midterm election Facebook claimed that in 74% of races, the candidates with more "likes" won. A more scientific study discovered some correlation for Senate but negative correlation for House (Trilogy Interactive, 2010);

• A social election experiment run during Canadian election in 2011 claim that Facebook Likes can, in general, predict election results.

https://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=448981740881

https://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=448981740881

http://www.trilogyinteractive.com/assets/pdf/facebookpredictselectoralvictory_final.pdf

http://socialelection.ca/


Methodology (1/2)

• Sampling strategy– All the 23 provincial capitals;– 229 candidates to major office;– 3 provincial capital with only one or less candidate on

Facebook;– 102 Facebook Pages (44,5%);– 300.000+ Likes.

• Data gathering– Facebook Graph API (snapshots from 25/04 to 15/05)– Ministero degli Interni e Regione Friuli Venezia Giulia


Methodology (2/2)

• For each candidate– Candidate Prediction Gap = Candidate’s vote share

- Facebook Likes shares• For each municipality– Index of prediction accurateness (0-10);– Municipality Prediction Gap =

AVERAGE(Candidate’s prediction Gap in the Municipality)


Results (1/4)

18%

43%

39%Other

82%

The winner was correctly predicted

Most popular candidate on Facebook arrived second in the election


Results (2/4)Correlazione di Pearson = 0,556


Results (3/4)


Results (4/4)

Correlazione di Pearson = 0,247


Conclusions

• The popularity of a candidate on Facebook is moderately correlated to the candidate’s vote share;

• Extremist parties registered the highest prediction gap;

• The prediction gap shrinks as the number of candidate on Facebook increase.

if likes were votes: an empirical study on italian administrative election

News & Politics