ihs economics - the us economic outlook - january 14, 2016
TRANSCRIPT
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© 2016 IHS
US Economic Outlook
IHS
The US Economic Outlook14 January 2016
Patrick Newport, Director of Long Term Forecasting+1 781 301 9125, [email protected]
ECONOMICS
© 2016 IHS
The US economy on a moderate growth path
• An inventory correction held back growth in the second half of 2015.
• Consumer spending is supported by solid gains in employment, real disposable income, and housing asset values.
• Housing construction will steadily recover in response to rising employment, easing credit, and a higher household formation rate.
• International trade is creating headwinds for the US economy due to a strong dollar exchange rate and subpar growth in key export markets.
• A two-year federal budget agreement and suspension of the debt ceiling boosts near-term spending and reduces policy uncertainty.
• Interest rates will gradually increase through 2018.
• Real GDP growth will pick up from 2.4% in 2015 to 2.7% in 2016.
2
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
© 2016 IHS
Private employment at an all-time high
104,000
108,000
112,000
116,000
120,000
124,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Private employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics © 2016 IHS
Thou
sand
s
© 2016 IHS
Steady job growth
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
United States Michigan
Payroll employment growth
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics © 2016 IHS
Y/y
perc
ent c
hang
e
© 2016 IHS
12-month payroll employment gains
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
US 12-month payroll gains
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics © 2016 IHS
Mill
ions
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Michigan12-month payroll gains
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics © 2016 IHS
Thou
sand
s
© 2016 IHS
Close to full employment!!!
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
United States Michigan
Unemployment rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics © 2016 IHS
Perc
ent
© 2016 IHS
Participation rate: near 1978 levels
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Labor force paticipation rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics © 2016 IHS
Perc
ent
© 2016 IHS
US business-cycle expansions since start of recoveries
90
100
110
120
130
140
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
1961-1969 1982-1990 1991-2001 2001-2007 2009-present
Business-cycle expansions lasting six years or more
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Quarters since start of recovery
(Firs
tqua
rter
= 1
00)
© 2016 IHS
Little Wage inflation
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Employment cost index, wages and salaries
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics © 2016 IHS
Year
-ove
r-ye
ar p
erce
nt c
hang
e
© 2016 IHS
Stagnant productivity growth
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Nonfarm business output per hour
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics © 2016 IHS
Year
-ove
r-ye
arpe
rcen
t cha
nge
© 2016 IHS
-150 0 150 300 450 600 750
Mining & loggingUtilities
Federal governmentState government
InformationManufacturing
Local governmentOther services
EducationWholesale trade
Transport & warehousingFinancial services
ConstructionRetail trade
Leisure & hospitalityHealth & social services
Prof. & business services
11
Services recorded the largest employment increases during the 12 months ended November 2015Change in payroll employment, thousands
Total change = 2.6 million
Source: IHS © 2015 IHS
© 2016 IHS 12
Oil prices and drilling activity have collapsed
Weekly oil rig count and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price
0
30
60
90
120
150
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oil rigs (Left scale, thousands) WTI price (Right scale, USD/barrel)Sources: Baker Hughes [http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-reportsother] and EIA [http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=w] © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 13
A widening trade deficit will contribute to a retreat in the dollar’s real exchange value in 2017‒20
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real trade-weighted dollar index
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Inde
x, 2
009
= 1.
0
Major trading partners Other important trading partners
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 14
The Institute for Supply Management’s indexes signal a stall in manufacturing and moderate growth in services
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ove
r 50
indi
cate
s ex
pans
ion
Manufacturing index Nonmanufacturing index
ISM indexes
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 15
Industrial production growth has slowed sharply in response to the dollar’s appreciation
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real GDP and industrial production
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Perc
ent c
hang
e
Real GDP Industrial production
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 16
Sources of growth in US real GDP US Economic Outlook / January 2016
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Real GDP Consumer spending Nonresidential investmentResidential investment Inventories ExportsImports Government Domestic demand
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
s
Contribution to real GDP growth
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 17
US economic growth by sectorUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real GDP and its components
Percent change 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real GDP 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.9
Consumption 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.2
Residential investment 1.8 8.6 9.5 9.6
Business fixed investment 6.2 3.4 5.0 5.0
Federal government -2.4 -0.4 3.6 -0.8
State & local government 0.6 1.5 1.5 1.2
Exports 3.4 1.0 2.3 5.4
Imports 3.8 5.0 4.9 7.3
© 2016 IHS 18
Employment growth has been steadier than real GDP growth during the current expansion
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real GDP and employment growth
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Perc
ent c
hang
e, a
nnua
l rat
e
Real GDP Employment
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 19
Other key US indicatorsUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Key indicators
Percent change 2014 2015 2016 2017Industrial production 3.7 1.3 0.6 3.0
Payroll employment 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3
Light-vehicle sales (Millions) 16.4 17.4 17.8 18.2
Housing starts (Millions) 1.00 1.11 1.26 1.42
Consumer Price Index 1.6 0.1 1.2 2.6
Core CPI 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
Brent crude oil price (USD/barrel) 100 54 48 58
Federal funds rate (%) 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.9
10-year Treasury yield (%) 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.9
© 2016 IHS 20
Interest rates will rise from exceptionally low levelsUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Interest rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Perc
ent
Federal funds 10-year Treasury 30-year mortgage BAA corporate
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 21
Job growth will slow as the US economy approaches full employmentPayroll employment
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Perc
ent c
hang
e, a
nnua
l rat
e
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 22
After an inventory correction, manufacturing production growth will rebound in the second half of 2016
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Industrial production and real GDP
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
-ove
r-ye
ar p
erce
nt c
hang
e
All manufacturing Excluding information technologies Real GDP
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 23
US industrial production growthUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Industrial production
Percent change 2014 2015 2016 2017
All manufacturing 2.8 2.3 1.5 2.8
Motor vehicles & parts 10.4 9.0 7.2 4.2
Computers & electronics 2.9 1.8 3.0 4.9
Electrical equip. & appliances 2.1 4.4 3.3 2.4
Machinery 4.7 0.1 -2.2 3.1
Textiles 3.4 0.2 2.7 -1.0
Furniture 6.5 4.3 3.3 2.8
Chemicals 1.8 3.3 1.4 3.5
© 2016 IHS 24
Consumer price inflation will pick up as commodity prices recover
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Inflation rates
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Year
-ove
r-ye
ar p
erce
nt c
hang
e
All-urban CPI Core CPI (excluding food and energy)
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 25
Worker compensation will accelerate as labor markets tighten and the Affordable Care Act is implemented
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Labor compensation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Year
-ove
r-ye
ar p
erce
nt c
hang
e
Total compensation Wages & salaries Benefits
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 26
The consumer market environment is improvingUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Consumer market indicators
Percent change 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real consumption 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.2
Real disposable income 2.7 3.6 3.1 3.3
Real household net worth 4.8 3.2 3.4 3.1
Payroll employment 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3
Real wage rate 0.6 1.9 1.2 0.6
Consumption price deflator 1.4 0.3 1.0 2.0
Light-vehicle sales (Millions) 16.4 17.4 17.8 18.2
Single-family home sales (Millions) 4.77 5.10 5.27 5.46
© 2016 IHS 27
Crude oil prices will gradually recoverUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Dol
lars
/bar
rel
Current US dollars 2014 US dollars
Price of Dated Brent crude oil
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 28
US crude oil prices and natural gas prices US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Crude oil and natural gas prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Dol
lars
/mill
ion
Btu
Dol
lars
/bar
rel
Crude oil, WTI (Left scale) Natural gas, Henry Hub (Right scale)Source: IHS Energy © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 29
Lower gasoline prices have brought substantial savings for US households
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Retail gasoline price and annualized spending on motor fuels
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Thou
sand
dol
lars
/hou
seho
ld
Dol
lars
/gal
lon
Retail gasoline price Spending on motor fuels per household (Right scale)Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 30
Consumer spending will be supported by solid growth in real disposable income
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real consumer spending and disposable income
-2
0
2
4
6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Perc
ent c
hang
e
Real consumer spending Real disposable income
Tax increases under-mined growth in 2013
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 31
Real household net worth has reached a new highUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Household assets and liabilities
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Trill
ions
of 2
014
dolla
rs
Assets Liabilities Net worth
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 32
Light-vehicle sales will peak in 2017; low gasoline prices boost demand for light trucks
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Light-vehicle sales
0
4
8
12
16
20
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ions
of u
nits
, ann
ual r
ates
Total Cars Light trucksSource: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 33
The consumer spending expansion is broadening
Nominal consumer spending
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Apparel
Recreation services
Computers & software
Home furnishings
Food & beverages
Vehicles & parts
Transportation services
Medical care & products
2016 2015 2014
Percent change
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 34
Healthcare will take a rising share of personal consumption expenditures in the decade ahead Personal consumption by category
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 2024
Perc
ent o
f tot
al c
onsu
mpt
ion
Food Energy Health Housing services
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS
The recovery in housing markets is gaining momentum
• Sustained job growth will support increases in housing demand.
• Credit availability is improving for home buyers and builders.
• Supplies of new and existing homes are tight, driving up prices.
• Multifamily units will account for about one-third of housing starts.
• Young adults have postponed homeownership, resulting in pent-up demand.
• Sales to first-time buyers are rising rapidly.
• Baby boomers are starting to downsize.
35
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
© 2016 IHS 36
A recovery in household formation will support further gains in housing starts
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Housing starts and formation
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ions
Housing starts Household formation
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 37
Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Single-family housing starts and sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ions
of u
nits
Mill
ions
of u
nits
Housing starts (Left scale) Home sales (Right scale)
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS
Nonresidential fixed investment has slowed
• Most companies are investing at steady rates
• However, companies exposed to foreign competition (manufacturing), low oil and gas prices, and falling agricultural prices have cut capital spending sharply• Agricultural machinery is down 48% year-over-year, due to falling agricultural
prices
• Mining and oilfield machinery equipment is down 48% year-over-year—blame low oil prices
• Railroad equipment is down 56% year-over-year
• Special industrial machinery is down 20% year-over-year, thanks to the strong dollar
• Mine and well structures are down 44% year-over-year
US Webcast / January 2016
38
© 2016 IHS 39
Core capital goods orders and shipments remain weakUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
3-m
onth
mov
ing
avg.
, bil.
USD
New orders Shipments
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 40
Business fixed investment growth is held back by the plunge in spending on mining and petroleum structures
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real business fixed investment
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Year
-ove
r-ye
ar p
erce
nt c
hang
e
Equipment Structures Intellectual products
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS
Business equipment investment spending will pick up
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Contributions to annualized real GDP growth
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
sUS Webcast / January 2016
41
© 2016 IHS
Building structures: A small plus for growth
-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Contributions to annualized real GDP growth
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Perc
enta
gepo
ints
US Webcast / January 2016
42
© 2016 IHS
Drilling for oil will edge up as oil prices rise
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mining and wells’ contribution to annualized real GDP growth
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Perc
enta
gepo
ints
US Webcast / January 2016
43
© 2016 IHS 44
US real construction growth by sectorUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real investment in structures
Percent change 2014 2015 2016 2017Total construction 4.7 3.9 6.4 6.6
Residential 1.7 8.7 9.6 9.7
Commercial 19.3 12.3 8.3 11.0
Manufacturing 11.2 49.9 9.7 -16.9
Mines & wells 6.5 -34.7 -20.1 17.3
Healthcare -7.6 15.0 5.3 7.0
Public utilities 6.2 -9.9 2.5 -5.0
Highways & streets 2.4 6.3 7.6 0.4
Public education -1.7 5.9 5.3 2.1
© 2016 IHS
The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2016 and other legislation bring clarity to federal fiscal policy• The federal debt ceiling is suspended through March 2017 and the
federal government is funded through September 2017.
• In December, Congress enacted appropriations and tax legislation.• A $1.1-billion omnibus spending bill specifies fiscal 2016 expenditures, as
well as a five-year highway funding bill.
• Numerous temporary tax credits are made permanent, including the R&D tax credit, child tax credit, and earned income tax credit.
• Some taxes enacted under Obamacare are delayed, including the excise tax on medical equipment sales and the tax on higher-premium employer-provided health insurance (postponed to 2020).
• The Export-Import Bank is reauthorized.
• Budget actions will add 0.2 percentage point to 2016 real GDP growth.
45
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
© 2016 IHS 46
The US federal budget will remain in deficit
US federal budget balance
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Bill
ions
of U
SD, f
isca
l yea
rs
Unified budget balance (Left scale) Balance as percent of GDP (Right scale)
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 47
The gap between federal expenditures and revenues will stay in the 2–3% range of GDPFederal revenues and expenditures*
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Perc
ent o
f GD
P
Federal revenues Federal expenditures* Fiscal years, unified budgetSource: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 48
Federal government debt remains high relative to GDP
Publicly held federal debt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Perc
ent o
f GD
P
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS
A gradual acceleration in the global economy
• The world economy remains in low gear; only a modest pickup in growth is expected in 2016.
• Eurozone growth will improve slightly, aided by monetary stimulus, currency depreciation, and pent-up demand.
• China’s economic growth will slow further in 2016 because of imbalances in credit, housing, and industrial markets.
• The plunge in materials prices is restraining growth in the commodity-exporting countries of the Americas, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.
• Prospects for emerging markets depend on structural reforms that raise productivity and allocate capital more efficiently.
49
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
© 2016 IHS
-2-10123456
NAFTA OtherAmericas
WesternEurope
EmergingEurope
Mideast-N. Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Japan OtherAsia-
Pacific
Ann
ual p
erce
nt c
hang
e
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-22
50
Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) will achieve the fastest growth in real GDP
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real GDP
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 51
The US current account will remain in deficitUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Current-account balance
-7.5
-6.0
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
-1,250
-1,000
-750
-500
-250
0
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Current-account balance (Left scale, billion US dollars)Balance as percent of GDP (Right scale)
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 52
A widening trade deficit will contribute to a retreat in the dollar’s real exchange value in 2017‒20
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real trade-weighted dollar index
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Inde
x, 2
009
= 1.
0
Major trading partners Other important trading partners
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 53
Risks to the US forecast US Economic Outlook / January 2016
Scenario Characteristics
Mild recession(Probability = 20%)
• Weaker global growth and a stronger dollar hurt exports.• A stock market plunge undermines consumer confidence.• Businesses reduce hiring and investment in structures.• As a result, the US experiences a mild recession in the second and third quarters of 2016.
Recovery gains momentum(Probability = 15%)
• Productivity accelerates, raising potential GDP growth.• Stronger global economic growth lifts US exports.• Construction surges in response to increased household formation and easing credit standards.
• The Fed raises interest rates more quickly in 2016‒17.
Baseline forecast(Probability = 65%)
• The Fed gradually raises interest rates in 2016–18.• Housing markets steadily recover over the next five years.• Global economic growth picks up moderately.• The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2016 sets the parameters for federal fiscal policy over the next two years.
© 2016 IHS 54
Real GDP growth in alternative scenariosUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Real GDP
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Perc
ent c
hang
e, a
nnua
l rat
e
Baseline (65%) Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (15%)
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 55
Light-vehicle sales in alternative scenariosUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
Light-vehicle sales
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mill
ions
of u
nits
, ann
ual r
ate
Baseline (65%) Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (15%)
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS 56
Housing starts in alternative scenariosUS Economic Outlook / January 2016
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mill
ions
of u
nits
, ann
ual r
ate
Baseline (65%) Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (15%)
Housing starts
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS
Bottom line for the US economy
• Consumer spending will be supported by gains in employment, real disposable income, and household net worth.
• Homebuilding will rise as credit availability improves and demand from young adults strengthens.
• Foreign trade will be a drag on US economic growth through 2018, due to a strong dollar and sluggish growth in major export markets.
• Real business fixed investment will post solid gains, led by information technology equipment and commercial structures.
• The Federal Reserve will gradually raise the federal funds rate; it will reach an equilibrium at 3.25% in late 2018.
• Core inflation will edge upward to the central bank’s 2% target.
• Forecast risks are weighted to the downside.
57
US Economic Outlook / January 2016
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