Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Impact of Climate Change:

A Discussion on Strategies and Planning for the City of Ames

Impact of Climate Change:

A Discussion on Strategies and Planning for the City of Ames

Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative

Professor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

gstakle@iastate.edu

Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative

Professor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

gstakle@iastate.edu

Ames City Council20 October 2009

OutlineOutline

Latest climate science in the run-up to Copenhagen (December)

Observed climate change in IowaFuture climate change for Iowa and the

US MidwestPossible planning and policy implications

Buildings and infrastructureImage and marketingPlanning for those least able to cope

Latest climate science in the run-up to Copenhagen (December)

Observed climate change in IowaFuture climate change for Iowa and the

US MidwestPossible planning and policy implications

Buildings and infrastructureImage and marketingPlanning for those least able to cope

Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)

Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Balanced fuel sourcesEnergy intensive

More environmentally friendly

If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007

FI =fossil intensive

Arctic Sea-Ice Decline

Actual sea-ice cover declines are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 2007 IPCC report

Eos, Vol. 90, No. 37, 15 September 2009

http://cires.colorado.edu/steffen/melt/index.html

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Decline in Greenland Ice Mass

Greenland annual ice mass loss exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 2007 IPCC report

http://cires.colorado.edu/steffen/melt/index.html

Actual sea-ice cover declines are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 2007 IPCC report

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas

Projected sea-level Rise in 21st century:

IPCC, 2007:18-59 cm

Rahmstorf, 2009:50-140 cm (obs)

Corell, 2004:50-100 cm

Rahmstorf, 2009:75-190 cm (model)

…climate scientists have, en masse, become Cassandras —

gifted with the ability to prophesy future disasters, but cursed with the inability to get

anyone to believe them.Paul Krugman, NY Times 09/27/09

Cassandras of Climate

Rise in global mean temperature (oC)

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles

A2A2

B1B1

Nebojša Nakićenović IIASA, Vienna

IPCC 2007

June-July-August Temperature Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999

2.5

3.0

IPCC 2007

IPCC 2007

December-January-February Temperature Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999

4.0

3.5

IPCC 2007

IPCC 2007

June-July-August Precipitation Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999

-0.1

0.0

IPCC 2007

IPCC 2007

December-January-February Precipitation Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus1980-1999

0.0

0.1

IPCC 2007

Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]

Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 13

1988: 10

2009 so far: 0

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 13

1988: 10

2009 so far: 0

6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years

Des Moines Airport Data

Des Moines Airport Data

Ames Data

State-Wide Average Data

Cedar Rapids Data

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

Cedar Rapids Data

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

State-Wide Average Data

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Energy intensiveBalanced fuel sourcesMore environmentally friendly

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

AdaptationNecessary

MitigationPossible

Energy intensiveBalanced fuel sourcesMore environmentally friendly

AdaptationCrucial

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest

Temperature

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest

Temperature

*Estimated from IPCC reports

More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium) Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the

first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) More variability of summer precipitation (high)

More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium)

Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but

decreases in the long run (medium)

More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium) Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the

first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) More variability of summer precipitation (high)

More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium)

Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but

decreases in the long run (medium)

*Estimated from IPCC reports

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest

Precipitation

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest

Precipitation

Policy and PlanningPolicy and Planning

Buildings and infrastructureImage and marketingPlanning for those least able

to copeIowa Association of Regional

Councils (Iowa Councils of Government)

Buildings and infrastructureImage and marketingPlanning for those least able

to copeIowa Association of Regional

Councils (Iowa Councils of Government)

Climate Change is a Risk Multiplier

Buildings and Infrastructure Buildings and

Infrastructure Building codes

Be proactive, ahead of the game ISU has only architecture school in Iowa

Water supply Preparation for droughts and floods Water quality as well as quantity

Energy supply Changing seasonal patterns New sources?

Transportation Innovation in public transit (fuels, engines, routes) City planning to minimize travel

Building codes Be proactive, ahead of the game ISU has only architecture school in Iowa

Water supply Preparation for droughts and floods Water quality as well as quantity

Energy supply Changing seasonal patterns New sources?

Transportation Innovation in public transit (fuels, engines, routes) City planning to minimize travel

Image and MarketingImage and Marketing

Ames has image of a progressive community Educated citizenry High citizen involvement Environmental ethic Attractive retirement community

Being progressive and sustainable Attracts green companies and green jobs on the high

technical end Attracts progressive employees to ISU, NADC,

IaDOT, private sector Presents positive image to our many visitors

Ames has image of a progressive community Educated citizenry High citizen involvement Environmental ethic Attractive retirement community

Being progressive and sustainable Attracts green companies and green jobs on the high

technical end Attracts progressive employees to ISU, NADC,

IaDOT, private sector Presents positive image to our many visitors

Planning for Those Least Able to CopePlanning for Those Least Able to Cope

Vulnerability to extreme weatherFloodsDroughtsHeat wavesTornadoes, high winds

Engaging local churches Dialog with Story County communities,

watershed partners

Vulnerability to extreme weatherFloodsDroughtsHeat wavesTornadoes, high winds

Engaging local churches Dialog with Story County communities,

watershed partners

For More InformationFor More Information Contact me directly:

gstakle@iastate.edu Current research on regional climate and climate change is

being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and

nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website:

http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/

Contact me directly:gstakle@iastate.edu

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and

nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website:

http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/

Or just Google Eugene Takle