project to intercompare regional climate simulations climate change: understanding the science and...
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Change: Understanding the Science
and Developing Strategies for Action
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Faculty Director, University Honors Program
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected] Center of Iowa
5 March 2007
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future
climate change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest Four components for addressing climate
change
Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Natural cycles
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
IPCC Third Assessment Report
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
2007
380 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
2050
550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
?
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Highly Likely Not Nartural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index
(PDI)
V
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index
(PDI)
V
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Adaptation Necessary
Mitigation Possible
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change
Mitigation policies: 2050-2100– Example: reduction in GHG emissions
Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive
economic advantage Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015
– Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified
Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
combination of both; drought and wildfire
EST personal view
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years.
Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)
EST personal view
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)
Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
“Warming Hole”
TTmaxmax (JJA) (JJA)˚C
North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric ResearchPrincipal Investigator
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL CCSM HADAM3link to EU programs
CGCM3
1960-1990 current 2040-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions
MM5Iowa State/
PNNL
RegCM3UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
CRCMQuebec,Ouranos
HADRM3Hadley Centre
RSMScripps
WRFNCAR/PNNL
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation,
see my online Global Change course:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
Contact me directly:[email protected]
Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/