Impact of agricultural

drought on Food Security of India

RESHMITA NATHreshmita84@gmail.com

Prof. Chen Wen (IAP)Dr. Xuefeng Cui (BNU)

Impact of agricultural drought on food security of India

International Workshop on High Impact Weather Research

Ningbo, China, 20-23 January 2015

120 MHaLRF

CI (42% land irrigable)

Yield

Import (2%)

Cereals

Milk, FruitsDiet

0.5 BTConsumption

0.49 BTProduction

900

m2/ capArable land

Technology+

Trade+

Government Policies

1960

1970

2010

1980

1990

2000

INDIAWorld Bank data

Population

1.2 B

0.6 B

GPC3000$

1000$G

ini Index

0.36

Diet diversification

+ UrbanizationEconomic

reform

Land required for food (LRF) Amount of agricultural land required to

ensure the total food demand of a country

Socio-economic & agricultural Policy background of India

Policy objectives

Policy Environment

Environmental

degradation

Natural Disaster & food

shortage

Politically powerful

farm sector

Large population

of poor farmers

n

i ii

iivegetal

CIyield

CfnconsumptioLRF

1

Cf= conversion factor.CI= cropping intensity = total area harvested/ total arable land and permanent cropsFAO, India database

3)(

)(

kcalvegetal

vegetalkcalanimalanimal nconsumptio

LRFnconsumptioLRF

Food securityFood self-sufficiency

Income support to farmers

Sustainable agriculture

GovernmentPolicies

Natural disaster like agricultural drought &

food security

Linear trend in LRF

Moderate Moderate

ModerateModerate

Moderate

Moderate

Severe

Severe Severe

Severe

20- 40 % area affected or 26-50% rainfall deficiency: Moderate> 40 % area affected or >50% rainfall deficiency : Severe

Climatology of agricultural and meteorological drought indices

Climatology, SPEI (JJAS), 1982-2012Climatology, VHI (JJAS), 1982-2012

-0.5 0.50Normalized Difference Vegetation Index: NDVI = (Ch2 – Ch1/Ch2+Ch1)Vegetation condition Index: VCI = (NDVImax – NDVI/NDVImax – NDVImin)Temperature condition Index: TCI = (BTmax – BT/BTmax – BTmin)VCI and TCI characterize by varying moisture and thermal conditions of vegetation, Vegetation Health Index : VHI = 0.5 (VCI) + 0.5 (TCI)Standardized Potential Evapo-transpiration index (SPEI): SPEI= Precip-PET, SPEI< 0, indicates shortage of water

(Kogan, 2002) VHIExtreme (<10)Severe (<20)Moderate (<30)Mild (<40)No drought (>40)

NOAA AVHRR, weekly data Global SPEI database

National Sample Survey Organization, India

Vulnerability Map for Agricultural and Meteorological Drought over IndiaPercentage of occurrence of drought (VHI<40)

National Sample Survey Organization, India

Irrigation Statistics

0-20%

20-40%40-60%

> 60%

Indian Planning Commission, March 2009

Desert Development

Prog.

Trend in Cereal production and yield in India: Role of govt. policies and schemes

Drought prone area prog.

IWDP

NAIS NHM

NADP,NMMI,NFSM,WBCIS

IWMP

NFSB

10-20% 20-30% >30 %

Deficiency in Precipitation

Deficiency (%) in production of Rice and Wheat

Case studies of 6 droughts1982, 2000, 20121987, 2002,2009

0-10%

Decadal changes in drought characteristics in India

(Kogan, 2002) VHIExtreme (0-10)Severe (10-20)Moderate (20-30)

VHI < 30

D1 D2 D3

RainfallD2-D1 D3-D2

Rice & Wheat production

Decrease in productionIncrease in production

Conclusion1. Mainly extreme North Western and Eastern – North eastern parts of India are

affected severely by drought and its affect to food security of the entire country.

2. Up to 2002 there is no long term policy for drought management. After 2002 Government has taken several policies and schemes to control the food security and encourage irrigation. After 2002 agricultural production, yield has increased significantly and the effect of drought has been mitigated to a greater extent .

5. Another problem arises due to excessive irrigation is ground water depletion . Govt. has taken the policies like watershed development, rain water harvesting, organic farming etc to mitigate these ecosystem loses.

6. The characteristics of vegetation pattern and agricultural drought over India has changed significantly from the earlier decade to the present. The frequency and spatial extent of drought has decreased from D1 to D3. particularly the vegetation of North western and central part has improved.

7. These changes in drought characteristics are mainly influenced by the increase in rainfall over Indian subcontinent due to the influence of ENSO and IOD. Which have strong positive impact on crop production in India.

Percentage in Irrigated Land

0-20%20-40%40-60%> 60%

Government Policies and schemes

Short term

Long term

Government Policy for disaster

management

NFSB (2011)

NAIS (1999-2000)

NHM (2005-2006)

NADP (2007-2008)

NFSM (2007-2008)

NMMI (2007-2008)

WBCIS (2007-2008)

Monitoring

Declaration

ResponsePrevention

Mitigation

Preparedness

Drought Management

Minimum support prices

Input subsidies

Regulated market

Strategic import export control

Food subsidies

for consumers

Credit

Power

Irrigation

Seed

Fertilizer