ORI GIN AL PA PER

Impact of the Trans-Himalayan Landslide LakeOutburst Flood (LLOF) in the Satluj catchment,Himachal Pradesh, India

Vikram Gupta Æ M. P. Sah

Received: 25 October 2006 / Accepted: 29 July 2007 / Published online: 19 September 2007� Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Abstract Landslide Lake Outburst Floods (LLOFs) are common in the Himalayan river

basins. These are caused by breaching of lakes created by landslides. The active and

palaeo-landslide mapping along the Satluj and Spiti Rivers indicate that these rivers were

blocked and breached at many places during the Quaternary period. In the present article,

we document LLOFs during 2000 and 2005 caused by the breaching of landslide lakes

created in the Trans-Himalayan region along the Satluj River and Paree Chu (stream),

respectively, both in the Tibetan region of China and its impact on the channel and

infrastructure in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India. It has been observed that

the loss of life and property due to these LLOFs is directly related to the disposition of the

Quaternary materials and the different morphological zones observed in the area.

Keywords Landslide � Landslide Lake Outburst Flood (LLOF) � Satluj River �Trans-Himalaya

1 Introduction

There are numerous kinds of temporary lakes formed by various natural processes.

Owing to the geomorphic setting, in the form of steep and narrow valleys bordered by

rugged mountains and lakes that are formed due to blockade by landslides are common in

mountainous terrain (Hewitt 1982; Eisbacher and Clague 1984; Gasiev 1984; Costa and

Schuster 1988; Schuster 2000). These lakes are formed in a wide range of geomorphic

settings and by various landslide processes. The most common type of these lakes are

formed due to rock and earth slumps, slides, debris flow, and mud flow (Costa and

Schuster 1988). The common initiation mechanism for the formation of these lakes is

excessive rainfall, snowmelt, and earthquakes. These lakes breach at timescales varying

from days to years after their formation (Scott 1985; Li et al. 1986). Often these lakes

V. Gupta (&) � M. P. SahWadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehra Dun, Uttaranchal 248 001, Indiae-mail: vgupta_wihg@yahoo.com; vgupta@wihg.res.in

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Nat Hazards (2008) 45:379–390DOI 10.1007/s11069-007-9174-6

fail catastrophically causing Landslide Lake Outburst Floods (LLOFs) downstream. The

timing of the failure and the magnitude of the resulting flash flood are determined by

dam size and geometry, material characteristics of the blockade mass, rate of inflow to

the impoundment, size, and depth of the impoundment and the nature of the substratum.

Damages in terms of life and property from these LLOFs vary, depending upon the

presence of vulnerable elements.

The examples of landslide-dammed rivers were documented in literature as early as

1737 BC in Hunan Province in central China when an earthquake triggered landslide

dammed the Yi and Lo Rivers (Xue-Cai and An-ning 1986). Landslide dammed rivers and

subsequent LLOF were recorded, as early as 563 AD in Switzerland (Eisbacher and Clague

1984) and in 1006 AD in central Java (Holmes 1965). The world’s worst recorded LLOF

occurred when the 1786 Kangding Louding earthquake in Sichuan Province, China trig-

gered a huge landslide and dammed the Dadu River, which after 10 days was overtopped

and breached causing a LLOF affecting about 1,400 km downstream and drowned about

100,000 people (Schuster 2000). The world’s largest and deepest (550–700 m) historic

landslide lake was formed by the 1911 earthquake that triggered a 2–2.5 billon m3 Usoi

rockslide, which dammed the Murgab River in Tajikistan (Gasiev 1984; Schuster 2000).

Other examples of large landslide lakes are Deixi lake (255 m deep) on the Min River in

central China (Chang 1934; Li et al. 1986), Mayunmarca lake (170 m deep) on the

Mantaro River in Peru (Lee and Duncan 1975) and Bairaman lake (200 m deep) on the

island of New Britain, Papua New Guinea (King et al. 1989).

In the present article, we document the blockade of river Satluj and its tributary in the

Trans-Himalayan region in the Tibetan Plateau and the subsequent LLOF downstream in

the Indian territory along the Satluj valley in July 2000 and June 2005. The impact of these

LLOFs on slope stability in the area will also be described.

2 Background of the study area

The study area, covering a part of the Satluj River catchment lies, in the Kinnaur and Simla

districts of Himachal Pradesh (Fig. 1). It is bordered by Tibet to its northeast. The Satluj

River originating from Tibet near Lake Mansarover at about 5,640 m asl enters India near

Shipki La at an altitude of 2,800 m asl. It is an antecedent, Trans-Himalayan river. Many

tributaries join the Satluj River on either side. Spiti and Baspa are the two major rivers that

join the Satluj at Khab and Karchham at an elevation of 2,600 and 1,750 m asl, respec-

tively. Spiti River flows for about 100 km, before joining Satluj at Khab. En route, it is fed

by several streams, including Paree Chu that joins the Spiti River at Sumdoh (Fig. 1).

2.1 Geological and physiographic set up

The area under investigation occupies a complex geological and tectonic set up. The river

Satluj from north to south in the study area cuts across the Tethyan Himalayan, the Higher

Himalayan and the Lesser Himalayan lithotectonic units. These three units are separated by

major tectonic lines ‘Tethyan Thrust’ (TT) and the ‘Main Central Thrust’ (MCT) passing

through Tirung Khad and the Brauni Khad, respectively (Fig. 2). The geological set up of

this area has been described in detail by Sharma (1976) and Gupta (1996). Apart from

having a wide variation in lithology, the river valley has an extensive cover of Quaternary

deposits.

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Fig. 1 Location map of the area. The blockade sites of Spiti and Satluj rivers (Palaeo-landslides) duringQuaternary period and the present day active landslides are depicted. Also shown is the damage caused by25 June 2005 Landslide Lake Outburst Flood (LLOF)

Fig. 2 Longitudinal channel profile of river Satluj from Shipki La to Rampur. It shows knickpoints near thejunction of major tributaries with Satluj and where the thrusts cross the river. The convex profile at places isdue to recurrent active landslides in the area. The boundaries of three climatic zones viz. the semi arid–aridtemperate zone (dry zone), sub humid–humid temperate zone and humid zone (wet zone) are also depicted

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Geomorphologically, the entire Satluj valley depicts a highly unstable topography as

indicated by its high relief and active erosional processes. The relief along the valley slope

varies between 1,000 m and 4,000 m, while total relief of the area is 5,861 m. Among the

geomorphic processes, glacial and fluvial processes have played a dominant role in shaping

the present landscape. Most of the currently prevailing processes in the area are denuda-

tional. The valley slopes at the higher altitudes are generally steep and snow covered,

whereas, the middle section is V-shaped that terminates in narrow gorges at a number of

places like Shipki La, Khab, Dubling, and Purbani.

The gross channel gradient of Satluj River between Shipki La and Rampur is 10.8 m/km

with knickpoints at or near the junction of the major tributaries and at places, where the

major thrusts cross the river (Fig. 2). The channel gradient in the Tethyan region between

Shipki La and the Khab is 20.5 m/km and between Khab and the Morang is 8.2 m/km and

in the Higher Himalaya between Morang and the Brauni Gad (MCT) is 13.52 m/km and

below MCT in the Lesser Himalaya is 6.01 m/km (Fig. 2). The convex river profile at

number of places along the river has been correlated with recurrent major active landslides

in the area (Gupta and Virdi 2000).

Climatically, the area has been divided into three zones, namely, semi-arid to arid

temperate zone (dry zone), sub-humid to humid temperate zone, and humid zone (wet

zone) (Fig. 2) (Gupta et al. 1994). The average annual precipitation is \200 mm in the

semi-arid to arid temperate zone, 200–800 mm in the sub-humid to humid temperate zone

and[800 mm in the wet zone. The mean minimum temperature recorded in each zone is –

11, –8, and –5�C, whereas mean maximum is 15, 28, and 30�C respectively (Statistical

abstract of Kinnaur district 1991–2005).

3 Discharge characteristics of river Satluj

The discharge data of river Satluj at Khab from 1987 to 1999 with 10 days average and

from 2000 to 2002, from 2004 to 2005 with daily average was available. The data indicate

that the discharge is highly variable and the average daily discharge fluctuates between

7.49 m3/s and 27.48 m3/s during January–March, it begins to rise from April or the

beginning of May and reaches a maximum which is about 200 m3/s during July–August

each year. At the end of August water levels begin to recede, and discharge fluctuates

between 11 m3/s and 20 m3/s during December. The maximum daily discharge recorded is

207 m3/s during July and the minimum is 7.5 m3/s during February. The average daily

discharge during peak discharge period (June–August) from 1987 to 2005 has been

depicted in Fig. 3a. It clearly shows the unusually high discharge during 2000, 2004, and

2005.

3.1 Discharge during July 2000 LLOF

The average daily discharge in the beginning of June 2000 was 80 m3/s (Fig 3b), which

was more or less normal during that part of the year. After mid-June, it started rising and

towards the later part of the month, there was unusual fluctuations and at the end of the

month it was about 126 m3/s. In July there was a continuous increase in discharge and on

29th and 30th of July, the discharge was 1,080 m3/s, which was about six times the normal

discharge for the whole month of July (Fig. 3b). On the early hours of 31st July at about

3 am local time (IST), the water level in Satluj River rose to about 15 m at Khab, causing a

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Fig. 3 (a) Mean daily discharge of river Satluj at Khab during peak discharge season from 1987 to 2005.Substantial increase in discharge during 2000 is due to Landslide Lake Outburst Flood (LLOF) in theTibetan region. On 26 June 2005 LLOF originating from the Tibetan region (Paree Chu) washed away thedischarge site at Khab and thus no discharge data was available afterward. The high discharge during 2004summer is related to the partial breach of the Paree Chu lake. (b) Daily average discharge for river Satluj atKhab for June, July, August for the years 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2005. The flood level in the valley,based on the present study, is interpreted to be about 1,100 m3 s–1 and is marked on the figure

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flash flood in the entire Satluj valley. During this flash flood, the discharge measured at

10 am and 3 pm at Khab was 1645.34 m3/s and 1733.50 m3/s, respectively. As the LLOF

occurred in the early hours of 31st July 2000 at about 3 am and continued for about 5–6 h,

the peak discharge during the flood was much higher than measured, the next day.

According to eyewitnesses (interviewed by the authors), the level of the water in Satluj

started rising on 30th July 2000 after 7 pm. The flash flood originating from Tibet, traveled

along the course of the Satluj and reached Khab at midnight without any warning. The

column of water rose to about 15 m at Khab and it is calculated that the discharge during

the flood was about 1,800 m3/s. This discharge was 11–12 times more than the average

daily discharge for the month of July.

Shang et al. (2003) reported an increase in temperature of about 0.3�C per 10 years in

the entire Tibetan Plateau since 1970s. Feng et al. (2001) also observed that by 2000 the

increase of temperature was more conspicuous. This has accelerated the melting of glaciers

and snow cover, thereby increasing the landslide activities related to high discharge in the

stream in the Tibetan area. However, there is lack of data pertaining to climate, discharge

and landslide in the upper Satluj River catchment lying in the Tibetan Plateau that

otherwise would be of help to substantiate our study. Nevertheless, the fluctuating dis-

charge data for river Satluj during June 2000 points toward damming and breaching of a

lake, created probably due to a landslide in the region. The exponential increase in dis-

charge towards the beginning of July confirms the overtopping or the breaching of lake and

ultimately its failure causing flash flooding in the Indian part of the Satluj valley in the

early hours on 31st July 2000.

3.2 Discharge during June 2005 LLOF

The average daily discharge during June 2005 increased continuously from 112 m3/s to

270 m3/s up to mid-June. From mid-June onward the discharge increased exponentially

causing a flash flood in the entire Satluj valley on 26th June. This flash flood was caused by

failure of the landslide dam that was formed due to the blockade of the Paree Chu stream, a

tributary of Spiti River by a landslide that occurred during July 2003. The lake thus created

at an elevation of 3,875 m (32�1903700 N and 78�4301300 E) was about 2,100 m long,

1,100 m wide and about 40 m deep storing about 64 million m3 of water (Fig. 4). The flash

flood starting from Paree Chu (32�1903700 N and 78�4301300 E) traversed the Spiti River and

reached Satluj River at Khab at about 11:35 am. The discharge measured at Khab on 26th

at 10 am was 834 m3/s. At 11:35 am, the water level rose to about 20 m at Khab and

Kharo (Fig. 5) and washed away the discharge site located at Khab (Fig. 6). This has also

been supported by the deposition of sand on the road section (NH-22) at Khab which is

about 20 m high from the river bed. It is calculated that discharge during this flood was

about 2,000 m3/s, compared with 1,800 m3/s during the July 2000 flood.

The unusual high discharge observed during summer 2004 (Fig. 3a) is related to partial

breaching of the Paree Chu Lake. This continuous rise in discharge created a panic in the

entire Satluj valley that helped to educate and save the loss of lives during 2005 LLOF.

4 Damages and casuality estimates

The damages caused by 2000 and 2005 LLOFs in the Satluj River catchment are briefly

described below.

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Fig. 5 A view of the Kharo bridge during 2005 LLOF. The level of water during the flood had risen toabout 15–20 m causing damage to the entire structure (The photo was taken from Border RoadOrganisation)

Fig. 6 View of the Khab where the river Spiti joins with the river Satluj. Note the discharge data recordingstation after the 2005 LLOF has been washed away. The valley has also been widened due to the LLOF

Fig. 4 The formation of Paree Chu Lake after a rockfall in the Paree Chu in the Tibetan plateau. (a) Thesatellite image of Paree Chu for 11 September 2004. The lake is about 2,100 m long, 1,100 m wide andabout 40 m deep. (b) The satellite image of Paree Chu for 20 February 2005. The water in the lake is frozen.(c) The satellite image of Paree Chu after the flood in 2005. The lake is empty

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4.1 Direct loss

The direct loss caused by 2000 and 2005 LLOFs is restricted along the course of Satluj and

Spiti rivers and are related to the physiographic features and the Quaternary deposits. The

Satluj River from Shipki La to Khab follows a spectacular gorge with a gradient of 20.5 m/

Fig. 7 (a) Damage to road section (National Highway-22) between Karchham and Shongtong caused bytoe erosion of slope during 2005 LLOF. (b) The damage to the settlements located on the Quaternarydeposits near village Kilba. (c) The road section (National Highway-22) between Kharo and Akpa has beenwashed away. Note the new alignment of road passing through village Ribba. The village is located on theglacio-fluvial deposits and is in danger. (d) Damage to Akpa bridge due to lateral erosion of the slope nearthe abutment. The bridge was located about 15 m above the level of river Satluj

Table 1 Losses incurred due to 2000 and 2005 LLOFs along the Satluj and Spiti Rivers in the Kinnaurdistrict of Himachal Pradesh

S No. Elements Loss during 2000 LLOF Loss during 2005 LLOF

1 Human lives 156 Nil

2 Houses 250 Nil

3 Road 20 km 15 km

4 Bridges 7 8

5 Indirect loss Unidentified Unidentified

6 Total loss US$ 222 m US$ 177 m

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km, and is confined by rocky cliffs, thus no damage was reported in this section. Paree Chu

tributary joins Spiti River at Sumdoh and from Sumdoh to Khab, the river flows with a

gradient of 15.0 m/km. On the way, village Leo is situated on the Quaternary lacustrine

deposits on the right bank of the river at an elevation of about 10 m from the present river

level (Fig. 1). About 20 houses and 8 ha of horticultural land were completely lost during

the 2005 LLOF. From Khab downstream till Morang, the river flows with a gradient of

8.2 m/km (Fig. 2). The water turned and twisted at every bend of the river causing whirls

that eroded the toe of the slopes. This flash flood washed away 2.5 km and partially

damaged 2.5 km length of road section of National Highway (NH-22) in a total stretch of

42 km between Khab and Morang (Fig. 1). The road follows the Satluj River at a height

varying from 20 m to 50 m from the present river bed in this section. Between Morang and

Wangtu, the river flows with a gradient of 13.52 m/km and at number of places like, Akpa,

Ribba, near Urni and Kilba, Quaternary deposits are noted to occur. Most of the damage

occurred in this section (Fig. 7a and b). In a total length of 50 km, about 5 km length of

road in various sections was completely destroyed in full width, while about 5 km was

partially damaged (Fig. 7a). The complete road section between Akpa and Kharo was

washed away, endangering the entire Ribba village, which is located on Quaternary

deposits about 100 m upslope of the river bed (Fig. 7c). Downstream of Wangtu, the river

flows through a gorge and rocky cliff and the road level is more than 100 m above the river

bed, thus minimum damage was encountered in this area (Fig. 1).

The 2000 LLOF which occurred all along the Satluj River damaged seven bridges

located at Khab, Akpa, Kharo, Shongtong, Karchham, Tapri and Wangtu. Besides this 156

people with their belongings were swept into deep water. There is no record of the number

of migrant laborers who lost their lives, which according to unofficial figures ran into

several hundreds. During the 2005 LLOF, which occurred along the Spiti River, seven

bridges that were rebuilt on the same location (Fig. 7d) and the one bridge located on the

Spiti River at Leo village were damaged. Table 1 document the direct loss caused by the

2000 and 2005 LLOFs in the Indian territory.

Table 2 Location of blockade of rivers Spiti and Satluj due to landslides and other mass wasting processesduring the Quaternary period

S No. Site Channel Blocked period Causes Evidences

1 Sumdoh Spiti Quaternary Df*/Ls* La*/Ft*

2 Leo Spiti Quaternary Df/Ls La/Ft

3 Khab Satluj Quaternary Ls La/Ft

4 Dubling Satluj Quaternary Ls La/Ft

5 Spillo Satluj Quaternary Df/Ls La/Ft

6 Morang Satluj Quaternary Df/Ls La/Ft

7 Akpa Satluj Quaternary Df/Ls La/Ft

8 Ribba Satluj Quaternary Df/Ls La/Ft

9 Pawari Satluj Quaternary Ls La/Ft

10 Karchham Satluj Quaternary Df/Ls La/Ft

11 Kilba Satluj Quaternary Df/Ls La/Ft

12 Tapri Satluj Quaternary Df/Ls La/Ft

13 Wangtu Satluj Quaternary Ls La/Ft

Df = Debris Flow, Ls = Landslide, La = Lacustrine deposits and Ft = Fluvial terraces

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4.2 Indirect loss

The indirect loss incurred due to 2000 and 2005 LLOFs are due to damage to the road

network and the high silt content in the river. This resulted in the temporary shut down of

hydroelectric projects in the study area. National Highway (NH-22), passing through the

study area, is the lifeline for the people living in the region and is the only means of

transportation. The washing away of bridges on Spiti and Satluj Rivers affected the day-to-

day activities of the 2,400 people living in 23 villages in the area. The affected area is the

main apple-growing region of Himachal Pradesh. The economy of the local people

depends on the export of the apples. The damage to the road communication affected the

overall economy of the region.

There are three hydroelectric projects running in the valley namely Nathpa Jakhri Hydel

Project (1,500 MW), Sanjay Jal Vidyut Hydel Project (300 MW), and Baspa Stage II

Hydel Project (330 MW) (Fig. 1). During and immediately after the flood, these projects

were closed for 45 days as the silt content in the water exceeded the 5,000 ppm permis-

sible limit thus costing state government a revenue loss of about US$ 144 m. The indirect

losses such as disruption of road communication and hardship to local peoples could not be

quantified. However, it is estimated that total loss incurred due to 2000 and 2005 LLOFs

was about US$ 222 m and 177 m, respectively.

5 Discussion and conclusions

The active and palaeo-landslide mapping carried out in the study area (Fig. 1) indicates

that flash floods and associated mass movement activities are common in the Satluj

catchment and have operated since geological times. Table 2 documents the location of

blockades along Satluj and Spiti Rivers due to landslides and other mass wasting processes

during the Quaternary period.

This study indicates that the damages caused by the July 2000 and June 2005 LLOFs

along the Satluj and the Spiti Rivers are directly related to disposition of the Quaternary

deposits in the form of lacustrine sediments, alluvial terraces, debris fans and different

morphological zones observed in the area (Fig. 2). The damages during both the LLOFs

have been reported mainly because of the toe erosion of the Quaternary deposits. It has

been noticed that during 2000 LLOF most of the Quaternary sediment along with the

human settlements on these deposits were washed away. This has consequently widened

the course of the river Satluj and this is the main reason for the lesser damage during 2005

LLOF despite having more discharge than 2000 LLOF (Fig. 3b).

The study further indicates that wherever the valley slopes are in the form of deep

vertical gorge, like between Shipki La and Khab and Khab and Morang, no damage has

been reported. The maximum damage was reported in the zones between Paree Chu and

Khab and Morang and Wangtu because of the presence of the Quaternary materials in the

form of debris fans and terrace materials at a number of places like Leo, Morang, Ribba,

Purbani, Kilba, Tapri and Wangtu (Figs. 7b–d). New landslides have also been observed in

this zone at Pawari and Shongtong, because of the toe erosion. From Wangtu downstream,

the Satluj River again flows through a gorge section and again no damage has been

reported in this zone.

The outcome of this study has two major implications. Due to the repeated LLOF in the

Satluj valley during past (Table 2), well exemplified by the July 2000 and June 2005

LLOFs in the area, the risk posed by these natural hazards must be evaluated. Global

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warming also has a role to play in the LLOF in the Satluj valley. The temperature in the

Tibetan Plateau, since 1970 have had a rising trend, with a total rise ratio of 0.3� C/

10 years (Zhang and Tang 2000). By 2000 the rise in temperature has been more obvious

(Feng et al. 2001). This has accelerated the melting of glaciers and snow cover in the

Tibetan Plateau, thereby increasing the amount of discharge in the rivers and consequently

occurrences of landslides and related mass movement activities.

With these case studies, further work will aim to link landslide/flood activity (LLOF) to

temperature and rainfall intensity duration trends so that stochastic relationship may be

developed to map the areas prone to be affected by the flash flood. Secondly, if a successful

relationship between the temperature, melting of glaciers, landslide activities and the flash

flood can be established for the Himalayan region, analysis of the palaeo-flood deposits

may provide important new information on past variation in temperature/rainfall trends.

Equally such relationships may predict changes in mass movement activities in the

Himalayan region based on modeled regional impact of global change.

Acknowledgments The authors thank the Director, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehra Dun forextending all the necessary facilities to carry out the work. Discharge data provided by the HimachalPradesh State Electricity Board, Jai Parkash Industries Ltd and Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd are thankfullyacknowledged. Information provided by the Kinnaur district administration, Border Road Organisation andthe local people about the damages caused by 2000 and 2005 LLOFs were of immense help.

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