BY

GERALD BANAGA-BAI NGI

AND

EM M ANUEL WAM ALA

M I NI S TRY O F ENERGY AND M I NERAL DEVELO P M ENT UGANDA

UGANDA: IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY PLANNING

Technical Meeting on Topical Issues in the development of Nuclear Power Infrastructure, 2-5 February, 2016, IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria.

Presentation Layout

Country Profile

Estimated Power Potentials

Uganda Vision 2040

Key Events

Energy Planning Studies

Other Developments

Conclusions and Recommendations

Country profile

Location: East Africa

Total Area: 241,038 km2

Area covered by water: 36,330 km2

Capital: Kampala

GDP Growth Rate at Constant (2009)

Market Prices : 5.0%

Population (2014 Census): 34.9million

Total Installed Capacity: 867.0 MW

Electricity consumption: 150 kwh/capita

Access to national electric grid: 15%

Sources: UBOS, 2014 World Bank, Uganda Vision 2040, Rural Electrification Survey , 2014

Shares of Fuels

Energy Source Contribution (%)

Traditional Biomass 88.8%

Fossil Fuel 9.5%

Electricity 1.7%

Source: MEMD 2014

Electricity coverage 16% and only 7% in rural areas. Electricity demand growth at 10% Need to increase access to clean energy and reduce poverty

Energy Sector Objectives

To increase electricity generation capacity

To expand the transmission and distribution networks

To increase access to modern energy services through rural electrification and renewable energy development.

“clean energy including Nuclear Energy sits in the middle of our clean low carbon growth strategy”

Estimated Power potentials

Energy Source Potential (MW)

Hydro 4,500

Biomass Co-generation 1,650

Geothermal 450

Peat 800

Total 7,400

Source: NDP 1

Some of the Vision 2040 Targets

Development Indicator 2010 2040

Per capita income $506 $9500

%population with access to electricity 11 80

Electricity consumption per capita (kwh)

75

3,668

% level of urbanisation 13 60

Source: Vision 2040

1700 Km Electrified Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) Network being developed to connect major urban centres and neighbouring

countries.

Vision 2040: Transport Infrastructure 8

Vision 2040: Industrial Parks 9

Source: Uganda Investment Authority

Institutional Structure

Energy Planning Studies

Studies so far include:

Project for Masterplan Study for Hydropower Development, 2011 initiated by Directorate of Energy Resources Development and conducted by JICA

Power Sector Investment Plan 2010 – 2030, initiated by Directorate of Energy Resources Development

Grid Development Plan 2013 – 2028, by UETCL Energy Demand and Supply Analysis initiated by

Directorate of Energy Resources Development and supported by IAEA.

Study on Integrating Nuclear Power into the Generation Capacity Plan 2015 – 2040, initiated by Directorate of Energy Resources Development.

Nuclear Energy Key Events

2010 – Nuclear energy was identified in Uganda Vision 2040 as a key source for meeting future energy needs.

1 July 2014, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development restructured into three Directorates and 11 Departments. Nuclear Energy Unit made a stand alone reporting directly to Director of Energy Resources Development

22 April 2015 – Cabinet approved the Nuclear Power Roadmap Development Strategy 2014 – 2015 and constitutes a Standing Cabinet Committee on Nuclear Energy Development

May 2015, Dr. Kwaku Aning, the Deputy Director General (DDG) and Head TC at IAEA visited Uganda to further enhance the partnership on nuclear power development, Cancer management, and Management of zoonotic diseases such as Ebola.

Key Events

The Minister of State for Mineral Development, Hon Peter Lokeris and Dr. Kwaku Aning, the Deputy Director General (DDG) TC during his visit to the country focusing on nuclear power development.

Energy Demand and Supply Analysis Study

Siting and Technology Deployment Working Group (TDWG) comprising of experts from relevant MDAs was constituted.

IAEA Inception Mission on UGA2001: Supporting Pre Feasibility Studies for Launching the First Nuclear Power Plant

Energy Demand and Supply Analysis Study

National Training Course on MAED was from conducted in Kampala from 18 – 22 August 2014 with support from IAEA

National Training Course on MESSAGE was conducted at Munyonyo, Kampala from 17 – 21 November 2014 with support from IAEA.

Over 10 staff in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, ERA, UEGCL, UETCL and National Planning Authority were trained.

A scientific visit on Nuclear Technology, 1 – 5 June 2015 was conducted in Republic of Korea.

Energy Demand and Supply Analysis Study

Members of Working Groups during IAEA Inception Mission on UGA2001: Supporting Pre Feasibility Studies for Launching the First Nuclear Power Plant

Energy Demand and Supply Analysis Study

Selected Members of STDWG during a scientific visit to Republic of Korea on Nuclear Technology, 1 – 5 June 2015. Courtesy of Korea Nuclear Association

Energy Demand and Supply Analysis Study

Relevant input Data for MAED and MESSAGE was collected by expert and national models developed.

A Scientific visit to IAEA Headquarters, Vienna on nuclear power infrastructure development focusing on energy planning was conducted by five (5) members of STDWG.

The aim of the scientific visit was to review national models with IAEA experts

Study on Integrating Nuclear Power into the Generation Capacity Plan 2015 - 2040

Overall Objectives :

To Conduct a study which would translate into a series of carefully cost-planned and actionable nuclear power projects or activities over a period of up to 25 years.

Study on Integrating Nuclear Power into the Generation Capacity Plan 2015 - 2040

Specific Objectives:

(i) To update the electricity demand forecast for 2015 – 2040;

(ii) To update the generation capacity expansion plan; and

(iii) To analyse the financial viability of the envisaged nuclear power development programme

Scope of the Study

Seven Tasks

Task 1: Review of the available documentation

Task 2: Review and update of the demand forecast

Task 3: Review and update of the generation plan

Task 4: Nuclear fuel cycle assessment

Task 5: Investment and financial planning report

Task 6: Training and capacity building

Task 7: Consultation of Stakeholders

Organization of the Study

The study was conducted by an international consultant under the supervision of the Technology Deployment Working Group (TDWG).

The TDWG comprise of members from relevant government MDAs.

IAEA provided training to members of TDWG on the use of computer based models for energy demand and supply analysis.

TDWG were also trained by consultant so as to be to maintain the models.

Methodology

Electricity demand forecasts were reviewed and updated using an econometric modelling of key economic drivers i.e. GDP, Population, load shedding, electrification rates, export sales, system losses and Per Capita Consumption.

Five scenarios were considered: the Base Case, High Case, Low Case, Grid Development Plan 2013 - 2028 Case and Uganda Vision 2040 Case.

Methodology

ORDENA plus ® model was used by the consultant to optimize the generation requirements for the five demand forecast scenarios outlined above.

Ten candidate technologies were considered for the supply capacity expansion.

These included were hydro, nuclear, solid waste, peat, Oil, natural gas, HFO, bagasse, geothermal and solar PV.

Methodology

A nuclear fuel cycle assessment was conducted to identity suitable nuclear reactor technologies to be deployed, options for nuclear fuel supply and radioactive waste management.

Ten (10) Generation III & III+ reactor types on market were considered.

An investment and financing plan was prepared by undertaking an economic simulation using the ORDENA plus ® model, specifically for the nuclear capacity required based on the results of the optimisation process.

While developing a nuclear power generation investment and financing plan, options for the reactor technologies, options for nuclear fuel supply and waste management were considered.

Major Assumptions (source: Study Report)

Main Findings

Demand Scenarios (Peak, MW) (Source: Study Report).

Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2015 - 2040

Base Case Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (MW). Source: Study report

Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2015 - 2040

Vision 2040 Case Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (MW). Source: Study report

Leading nuclear power reactor technologies for Uganda (Source: Study Report).

Cumulative capital expenditure requirements by scenario, 2020-40 ($‘000) (Source: study report)

Nuclear Fuel Supply Option

Utilizing international suppliers of nuclear fuel and their nuclear fuel cycle services was found to be the most cost effective approach for the first nuclear power project.

Continue with exploration and evaluation of Domestic resources which will become financially attractive as nuclear generation programme grows.

Benefits

Project Name Capacity (MW) Status

Karuma Hydropower Project 600 Construction

Isimba Hydropower Project 183 Construction

Ayago Hydropower Project 840 Feasibility studies completed and Government signed MoU signed with a developer

Achwa Hydropower Project 83 Feasibility studies completed, negotiating PPA and Implementation Agreements with Govt

Muzizi Hydropower Project 44 Procurement of Contractor

Small Hydropower Projects 64 Feasibility studies completed

Total 1,814

Challenges

Some models such as MAED have huge data reqquirements.

Limited capacity for energy planning in the country

Since the sector involves many stakeholders coordination of planning is still a challenge.

Other Developments

Potential Areas for Nuclear Power Plant

Other Developments

Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Project

Approved by Government with the following objectives:

To establish basic infrastructure required by Government and other stakeholders to launch the first nuclear power plant.

To strengthen the capacity of Nuclear Energy Unit for planning and managing nuclear power projects.

To enhance stakeholders involvement in nuclear power infrastructure development.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Energy plans are dynamic and regular update.

Studies so far conducted show that electricity demand will continue to grow and current sources are inadequate to meet all future needs.

Nuclear power will therefore play an important role in the future energy mix.

Appropriate infrastructure development planning is critical for nuclear energy dev’t

Infrastructure and investment requirements varies with the size of the nuclear power programme.

Thank You