improving weather, climate and hydrological services deliveryin republic of tajikistan

IMPROVING WEATHER,

CLIMATE

AND HYDROLOGICAL

SERVICES DELIVERY

IN REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN

World Bank

2009

This report reviews the social and economic requirements for weather, cli-mate and hydrological information in the Republic of Tajikistan, assesses the capacity of the Tajik National Hydrometeorological Service to meet these needs, and proposes steps to be taken to fill gaps.

Table of Contents

PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

PURPOSE OF REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND NATURAL HAZARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7ROLE OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN TAJIKISTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS FOR WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . 8STATUS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9ASSESSMENT OF USER-NEEDS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11NEXT STEPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

CHAPTER 1 KEY WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141.1. MAIN GEOGRAPHICAL AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141.2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS AND THEIR SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

1.2.1. HIGH IMPACT WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS CLASSIFICATION AND CLIMATOLOGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181.2.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

METHOD OF ESTIMATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22SOURCES OF INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22RESULTS OF THE ECONOMIC ESTIMATE OF METEOROLOGICAL RISKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

1.3. WEATHER-DEPENDENCE OF ECONOMY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261.3.1. GENERAL INFORMATION ON SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY DEPENDENT ON WEATHER CONDITION AND METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261.3.2. ASSESSMENT OF WEATHER-DEPENDENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OF TAJIK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302.1. LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS, STAFFING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

2.1.1. BRIEF HISTORY OF TAJIK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302.1.2. NMHS ACTIVITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312.1.3 INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

HEADQUARTERS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33REGIONAL CENTERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

2.1.4. NMHS BUDGET. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342.1.5. STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352.1.6. TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADING PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352.1.7. BUILDINGS AND FACILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362.1.8. CONTACTS WITH MASS MEDIA AND COMMUNITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362.1.9. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372.1.10. COMPLETED PROJECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372.1.11. ON-GOING PROJECTS AND ANALYSIS OF PROJECT OUTCOMES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382.1.12. COORDINATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES WORKING IN THE FIELD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY . . . . . 38

2.2. OBSERVATION NETWORK, INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392.2.1. NMHS OBSERVATION SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

SURFACE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39CONDITION OF OBSERVATIONAL INSTRUMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41REMOTE OBSERVATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF METEOROLOGICAL EQUIPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

2.2.2. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN WEATHER FORECASTING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432.2.3. TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF DATA AND INFORMATION PRODUCTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

2.3. PRODUCTS AND SERVICE DELIVERY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, NATIONAL COORDINATION. . . . . . 45

2.3.1. WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452.3.2. CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462.3.3. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462.3.4. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION MONITORING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462.3.5. ACTIVE MODIFICATION OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472.3.6. CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472.3.7. INFORMATION SERVICES PROVIDED TO USERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

2.4 SUMMARY OF CAPACITY ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

CHAPTER 3. ASSESSMENT OF USER-NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503.1. APPROACHES TO NEEDS ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503.2. ASSESSMENT OF KEY SECTORS’ NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

3.2.1. TAJIKHYDROMET ASSESSMENT OF USER-NEEDS IN HYDROMETEROLOGICAL INFORMATION AND FORECASTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503.2.2. ASSESSMENT OF WEATHER-DEPENDENT SECTORS’ NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

EMERGENCIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53AGRICULTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55MELIORATION AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56ENERGY SECTOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58TRANSPORT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

3.3 EVALUATION OF SECTOR NEEDS AND NMHS CAPACITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

CHAPTER 4. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF IMPROVEMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SEVICE DELIVERY. . . . . 624.1. GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUNDS OF ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624.2. APPROACHES USED FOR ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

4.2.1. BENCHMARKING METHOD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624.2.2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

4.3. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF THE PROPOSED TAJIKHYDROMET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

4.3.1. BENCHMARKING ASSESSMENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 644.3.2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

ASSESSING KEY RATIOS FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65MAIN RESULTS OF ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF NMHS MODERNIZATION FOR SELECTED SECTORS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67TRANSPORT SECTOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68AGRICULTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68IRRIGATION AND WATER SUPPLY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

4.4 SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS OF NMHS’S MODERNIZATION ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

CHAPTER 5 HOW TO IMPROVE WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN THE TAJIK REPUBLIC . . . . . . . . . . . . . 725.1 POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT (MODERNIZATION PROPOSALS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 725.2 ACTION PLAN AND NEXT STEPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81ANNEXES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN

4

PREFACE

This report is prepared as a part of a technical assistance project “An Action Plan for Improving Weather and Climate

Service Delivery in High–Risk, Low–Income Countries in Central Asia” funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduc-tion and Recovery (GFDRR). GFDRR is a partnership of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) system to support implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. The Hyogo Framework endorsed by the UN general Assembly is the primary international agreement for disaster reduction. The GFDRR is managed by the World Bank on behalf of the participating donor stakeholders. The GFDRR provides technical and financial assistance to high risk low and middle income countries to mainstream disaster reduction in national development strategies and plans to achieve Millennium Development Goals.

The report is based on the findings of the World Bank technical missions and surveys undertaken in Tajikistan in 2008. A user consultation workshop, which focused on the efficacy of the Tajikistan’s national hydrometeorological services was conducted on November 27, 2008. The report will contribute to the development of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters. This Program was recently launched, coordinated by the World Bank, the United Na-tions International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the umbrella of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC).

The program incorporates three focus areas: (i) disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) risk financing and transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. This Initiative would form the foundation for regional and country-specific investment priorities (projects) in the area of early warning, disaster risk reduction and financing. While the initiative would initially focus on on structural measures, it could in a subsequent phase support structural investments aimed at protecting assets, lives and livelihood of communities in disaster-prone areas. It could be financed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and other interested donors. Funds could also be provided for adaptation to climate change and streamlining adaptation activities into countries’ development programs.


5

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The main authors of the report are David Rogers, Marina Smetanina, and Vladimir Tsirkunov who is also the Task Team Leader for this GFDRR project. A. Korshunov, V. Kotov and A. Zaitsev participated in the country missions and developed technical back-ground documents and studies on climate vulnerability, capacity assessment of Tajikhydromet and modernization alternatives. L. Hancock and S. Sharipova contributed to the development of the study concept, provided valuable information and participated in the report preparation.

The authors would like to thank the staff of the Tajik Hydrometeorological service in its central office and regional centers, which facilitated the work of technical missions in Dushanbe and Khatlon and Sogd oblasts. Preparation of this report was advanced sig-nificantly by substantive inputs and coordination efforts made especially by Begmurod Makhmadaliev, Permanent Representative of Tajikistan with the WMO, Head of Tajikhydromet and Mahmad Safarov, Deputy Head of Tajikhydromet. Important contributions to user-needs and sector-specific economic assessments were made by experts from the entities of sectoral ministries/agencies of the Republic of Tajikistan, in particular the Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Melioration and Water Resources, Ministry of Transport and Communications, and Ministry of Energy. The project team benefited from constructive dialogue with representatives of interested stakeholders during a consultation workshop in Dushanbe (November 27, 2008) and their unanimous recognition of the urgent importance and support to improving Tajikhydromet capacity (see work-shop agenda, participants and main findings and recommendations in annexes 4-6).

The authors are grateful for support and valuable advice received from Chiara Bronchi, Country Manager for Republic of Tajik-istan, and Aziz Khaidarov, Country Officer, who also co-chaired and kindly moderated discussions at the Consultation workshop with stakeholders. The assistance provided by colleagues from Dushanbe World Bank Office, especially Takhmina Mukhamedova, Takhmina Jumaeva and Janna Yusupjanova while preparing technical missions and consultation workshop, are highly appreciated.

Finally, we would like to thank representatives of donor organizations who kindly agreed to meet with World Bank teams and provided valuable perspectives on future cooperation in this area. Special thanks should go to H. Maag, Director of Swiss Coop-eration Office for his active participation and support of this technical assistance work.


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ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ADB Asian Development Bank CIS Commonwealth of Independent States DWC Drastic Weather Changes ECA Europe and Central AsiaEHH Extreme (high impact) Hydrometeorological Hazards EM Emergency SituationGBAO Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast GEF Global Environment Facility GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and RecoveryGIS Geographical Information System GTS Global Telecommunication System (WMO)HH Hydrometeorological HazardsIASRF International Aral Sea Rehabilitation Fund IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IFI International Financial Institution IFRC International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies JICA Japan International Cooperation AgencyNMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service PWS Public Weather Service R&D Research and Development RT The Republic of TajikistanSDC Swiss Agency for Development and CooperationSECO State Secretariat for Economic Affairs of Swiss Ministry of Economic AffairsSRM Snowmelt Runoff Model Tajikhydromet State Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Committee for Environmental Protection under

the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan UNCCC United Nations Climate Change ConferenceUNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environmental Program UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster reduction UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNWFP United Nations World Food ProgrammeVCP Voluntary Cooperation Programme (WMO)WMO World Meteorological Organization – a United Nations agency


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PURPOSE OF REPORT

This report is prepared as a part of a broader technical assistance project funded by a Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) grant that is being implemented by the World Bank in the Republic of Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan. The overall objective of the project is to advance the disaster risk reduction agenda in Central Asia by developing specific actions to improve weather and climate delivery, which will contribute to national hazard risk reduction programs and improve capacity for emergency management.

The purpose of this specific report is to identify the social and economic requirements of Tajikistan for weather, climate and hydrological information and to assess the capacity of the State Enterprise for Hydrometeorology (Tajikhydromet) to meet these needs. The report identifies the gaps and weaknesses in producing and delivering weather, climate and hydrological information and services, and recommends how to restore and improve the capability of the national hydrometeorological service to save lives and livelihoods, and support social and economic development.

GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND NATURAL HAZARDS

Tajikistan is a landlocked country and the smallest by area in Central Asia. It is located in the south-eastern part of the region between 36040’ and 41005’ N, and 67031’ and 75014’ E. About 93% of Tajikistan is mountainous with one half of the territory located at or above 3000 above sea level. The lower elevations of Tajikistan are divided into northern and southern regions by a complex of three mountain chains. Tajikistan is divided into five zones: Northern Tajikistan, South-Western Tajikistan, Central Tajikistan, the Western Pamirs, and the Eastern Pamirs. These zones differ from each other in climatic conditions, relief, geological structure, flora, fauna, and human population. In general, the climate is continental, subtropical, and semi-arid, with some desert areas, which is determined by three factors: solar radiation, atmospheric circulation, and the complicated relief of its mountains.

The economy and environment of Tajikistan are affected by complex processes. Mountainous landscapes and intensive anthro-pogenic activities promote disasters that can result in emergency situations. Hydrometeorological hazards and their consequences pose the greatest threat to the economy and people in the form of economic losses. These events cause considerable damage to property and loss of life.

Up to 300 extreme hydrometeorological hazards occur in the Republic during the year, which have a significant impact on the country’s economy. A wide range of hydrometeorological hazards are monitored and forecast by the State Agency for Hydro-meteorology (Tajikhydromet) on a regular basis. They include: high and low air temperatures, droughts, frosts, strong wind, dust storms, heavy precipitation, snow avalanches and mudflows, glaze-ice and rime deposition, thunderstorms, hail, and dense fogs.

A standard classification of hydrometeorological events and unfavorable weather conditions by intensity and impact on the economy and population is used in Tajikistan. By these criteria extreme (high impact) hydrometeorological hazards (EHHs), in-cluding hydrometeorological disasters, and hydrometeorological hazards (HHs) are identified. Hydrometeorological events are classed as EHHs, when by intensity, territorial coverage or duration they can cause significant damage to the economy and popu-lation and pose a threat to people and the environment. Hydrometeorological events are classed as HHs when they hamper or stop operations in some sectors of the economy but by intensity, duration and territorial coverage do not reach criteria of EHHs.

Hazardous events are associated typically with precipitation in the form of heavy rains, snowfall, and hail with most of the emergency situations caused by heavy precipitation triggering other extreme hydrometeorological hazards and impacts, including mudflows, floods and snow avalanches.

Heavy precipitation in areas below 2000 m contributes to the formation of high floodwaters and mudflows, which are ob-served frequently in the foothills and mountainous areas of Tajikistan. In high-altitude areas, floods can result from a break-through in temporary (glacial) lakes. 85% of Tajikistan’s area is threatened with mudflows and 32% of the area is situated in the high mudflow risk zone.

High floodwaters are usually short-term, but cause huge damage to settlements and the national economy. During the last 30-40 years an increase in the number of days with disastrous floods has been observed.

Heavy snowfalls most frequently occur in active orographic areas higher than 1400-1500 m above sea level, i.e., in pied-mont and mountain regions. Snow avalanches occur in the area higher than 1500 -2000 m above sea level. Basic conditions for the formation of avalanches are slopes with a gradient of 30-50°, snow cover more than 30 cm, and relevant meteorological conditions. In Tajikistan, the major reason for avalanches is fresh snow formation (60-70%). Avalanches normally occur between November and April, and occasionally in May.

Strong winds are often observed in the bottlenecks of valleys (Khudjand). Winds at a speed 20 ms-1 are annually recorded in northern Tajikistan and eastern Pamir, and the southern regions of the republic.

Dust storms are distributed unevenly over the country and mainly occur in the southern deserts and arid regions for 1-4 months


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in the spring-summer period. They raise thousands of tonnes of soil and sand into the air, thereby considerably increasing the concentration of suspended particles in the atmosphere. A lot of farms suffer from these events, which decrease crop productivity.

Extremely-high temperatures, greater than or equal to 40°C, occur over the entire plain areas of the republic with an upward trend in the number of days with temperatures above 40°C. Drought is one of the severe meteorological phenomena often closely associated with extended period of high temperatures. Agriculture is most often exposed to hazardous events and drought is the most important among them. Local droughts occur every year in Tajikistan, but it also suffers severe ones, which simultaneously cover practically the whole territory of the country.

Low temperatures, with a daily mean air temperature of -10°C or lower, are also considered dangerous weather events. These occur mostly in mountainous areas, especially in low depressions, mountain passes, and tops of high mountain ranges. Frosts with an air temperature in valley-piedmont areas lower than - 100С rarely occur, but when they do, they cause extensive damage to fruit-farming, cattle breeding, water resources, energy and transport sectors.

ROLE OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN TAJIKISTAN

Tajikhydromet is responsible for issuing warnings and forecasts on the occurrence of hazardous weather events (avalanches, mudflows, floods, heavy and/or lasting rains and snowfalls, strong winds, hailstorms, extreme heat and cold, etc.) and drastic weather changes.

As a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Republic of Tajikistan (RT), through its NMHS, provides the international meteorological community access to the data of the Tajik national observational network, and receives informa-tion from other countries’ NMHS. These activities are regulated by Resolutions 25 and 40 of the World Meteorological Congress. Activities of the NMHS are regulated by the laws and resolutions of the Republic of Tajikistan, namely:

• The Law of the Republic of Tajikistan on Hydrometeorological Activity, dated December 2, 2002, # 86 • Resolution of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, dated February 3, 2000, # 49 On Approving the List of Facilities not Subject to Divesture and Concession, and Those Subject to Concessions by Decision of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan,• Resolution of the RT Government, dated October 1, 2002, # 377 On Approving the Agreement on Intergovernmental Hydrometeorological Network of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS HMN),• Resolution of the RT Government dated October 1, 2004, # 394 On Approving the Concept of Hydrometeorological Security of CIS Countries.The RT Law on Hydrometeorological Activities defines major areas of public regulation in hydrometeorology:

o Establish and ensure functioning of the public observational network;o Provide data on the actual and forecasted condition of the natural environment, including urgent information, to RT public authorities, Military Forces and population;o Establish requirements to information products;o Define the list of hydrometeorological activities having national importance, and make arrangements for and ensure their implementation;o Establish public hydrometeorological information resources, develop and maintain a single public fund of environmental data;o Arrange for and implement active modification of meteorological and other geophysical processes, as well as ensure public supervision of these works throughout the RT territory;o Ensure protection of the public observational network;o Provide for participation of the Republic of Tajikistan in international cooperation in hydrometeorology;o Implement licensing of hydrometeorological activities.

The Law defines NMHS activities in meteorology, hydrology and environmental pollution monitoring. In accordance with Regulations on the Agency for Hydrometeorology, the main functions of the Hydrometeorological Service are to:

• Implement continuous observations of the climate system and environmental conditions;• Provide public authorities, sectors of economy and population with data on the actual and forecasted environmental con-ditions, current and special-purpose (including urgent) hydrometeorological information. • Identify major areas, types and scope of activities in hydrology, meteorology, agricultural meteorology, aerology, acti-nometry, glaciology, and environmental monitoring.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS FOR WEATHER, CLIMATE

AND HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION

Tajikistan is an agricultural country. This most important sector (with over 20% annual average share in GDP for 2006-2007) strongly relies on cotton growing and export. Cereals, potatoes, vegetables, fruit and grapes are also cultivated and animal hus-


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bandry is well-developed due to the diversity of pastures. This sector is the most weather-dependent followed by industry, which includes fuel and energy and water resources. Collectively industry accounts for 19.8% of GDP.

Tajikistan has a considerable amount of various natural energy resources: coal, oil, gas, river runoff energy, solar radiation energy, thermal water and wind energy. Hydro-energy production is significant, making the electric energy industry an important sector of the Tajik economy. Tajikistan has the potential to be one of the world’s top ten hydro-energy producing countries, but currently not more than 5-7% of overall resources are used. Hydropower accounts for about 80% of the total potential energy resources of the country.

Other weather-dependent sectors include construction, transportation and communication, housing and public utilities, which account for a further 21% of GDP. Thus, overall more than 61% of the Tajik economy is weather-dependent, comparable with Georgia and Armenia, where agriculture is also the main contributor.

STATUS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

An extensive technical review of observational networks and other hydrometeorological infrastructure (telecommunications, facilities for forecasting weather conditions within the country, warning systems) of the Tajikhydromet, including the outcomes of assistance projects implemented by NRMP/USAID, WMO, Swiss Agency for development and GEF/World Bank in support of regional NMHS has been conducted.

It shows that the current condition of the hydrometeorological service fails to meet the needs of the government and the weather and climate-sensitive social and economic sectors for hydrometeorological services. It also shows that the Tajikhydromet fails to fulfill the country’s international and regional obligations for weather and climate information including those under the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Observation Network.

In summary: • The current meteorological and hydrological observing systems have been steadily declining as instrumentation becomes obsolete, fails and is not replaced. These existing networks do not meet modern requirements and impedes Tajikistan’s par-ticipation in the global observing network.• There is a critical lack of communication facilities, essential equipment and instrumentation, including standard ther-mometers, hygrometers, chemical agents, hydrometric current meters and winches, thermometer shelters. As a result many observing stations have had to terminate monitoring of extreme air and soil temperatures, reduce precipitation measurements, environmental monitoring, hydrological and agrometeorological measurements. The deterioration and aging of capital assets is an acute problem with more than 80% of the instrumentation obsolete. Calibration of the remaining network is inadequate.• The decline in the observing networks impact the quality of the analyses and forecasts of weather conditions. Aerological measurements of the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere are particularly important for forecasts, but have been terminated due to lack of expendables and failure of the sounding systems.• Current funding is insufficient to finance basic operations costs, including rations and fuel for generators. • Few assistance projects have had a sustainable impact because of the lack of skilled staff to support technical innovation and the lack of financial resources to support the ongoing cost of communications. Acquiring and retain qualified staff is a major issue.• Hail suppression is a significant function of the Tajikhydromet. Plans to restore this capability should also consider how radar data can be used routinely in routine nowcasting and forecasting.• There are no forecaster workstations. Forecasters rely on maps and satellite images when available. They do not have the computing capacity or sufficient internet access to acquire and visualize the needed range of global model products from the leading foreign meteorological centers. They also lack the capacity to acquire atmospheric sounding data from neighboring countries. As a result forecast accuracy is low. • Regional centers do not have internet access due to the high cost of the service and therefore are unable to get informa-tion from the central office. Data are communicated in many different ways, hydrometeorological stations mainly report in the form of voice messages. Unstable power supply limits the reliability of operational data transmission.• Service provision is uneven. Staffing in the weather information services is at 50% so a minimum work program is imple-mented. No systematic work is conducted with users of forecasts and current weather information. Climate information services are provided by the Climate Change and Ozone Layer research Center. These are responsible for the preparation of national assessment reports required as part of the UN framework Convention on Climate Change. This group does not pro-vide climate services to economic sectors despite the apparent need based on user surveys. In contrast with other services, the agricultural meteorology service is relatively well equipped through Swiss donor support and can provide a variety of products, although the quality of long-term and season forecasts remain a problem. Almost no air pollution data services are provided.


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ASSESSMENT OF USER-NEEDS

When preparing their modernization programs, NMHSs have traditionally focused on the technological aspects of hydro-meteorological service development. Such approach aims at improving forecast accuracy and timeliness. However, inadequate interaction with users usually prevents NMHSs from taking into account their actual and especially potential information needs. A complete absence or under development of contacts with users at the modernization package development stage results in a gap between the opportunities and plans of hydrometeorological service provision and understanding of what, how and where NMHS information can be used most efficiently for management decision making in specific sectors of the economy.

This lack of attention to end users’ current and potential understanding of their benefits from better hydrometeorological servic-es during NMHS modernization may further increase information misalignment between a hydrometeorological service and its us-ers. To avoid this, it is essential for NMHSs to build their interaction with users on the basis of modern principles, taking into account users’ interest in NMHS development and demonstrating to them their own and national benefits, including the economic ones.

There are several key factors, which determine the priority, scale and sequence of activities to modernize the National Hydro-meteorological Service and improve its institutional structure. These include assessment and recognition of the current status and trends in the needs for hydrometeorological information on the part of governmental institutions, users in major producing and nonproducing sectors of the economy, and the population.

The objectives and expected results of user-needs assessment are to: (I) identify the causes and factors of poor interaction be-tween NMHS and its users; (II) recommend to NMHS the most efficient way of cooperation with users; and (iii) propose to users how to integrate/apply hydrometeorological information and formulate their needs for it.

User needs for hydrometeorological information in Tajikistan were assessed in two stages on the basis of review and summariz-ing of a number of efforts.

First, NMHS experts identified the NMHS development priorities proceeding from the analysis of its current conditions, user-needs (as perceived by the NMHS), and knowledge of opportunities provided by modern hydrometeorology. This survey is based on the questionnaire developed during preparation of the National Hydromet Modernization in Russia and further tailored to esti-mate the economic benefits from the improved quality of hydromet services following the modernization of national meteorological services in the ECA region.

Second, the key users’ needs in hydrometeorological services were assessed in order to prepare recommendations on building Tajikhydromet’s capacity to provide synoptic/meteorological/hydrological services and information, as well as hydrometeoro-logical hazard and disaster warnings to the national Government, economy and population. The assessment targeted the most significant (in terms of GDP share) industries/sectors that are vulnerable to EHHs and HHs.

The user-needs assessment was based on a special checklist developed by the World Bank using WMO materials, World Bank earlier studies, and the Questionnaire on Assessment of User Needs in Hydrometeorological Information previously used for a survey conducted with the assistance of the regional project Swiss Support to NMHS in the Aral Sea Basin.

These studies identify the following priorities:• Accurate and timely, location specific, warnings of hydrometeorological hazards, including assessments of the impact of hydrometeorological hazards associated with current warning information to mitigation measures• Current hydrometeorological information (real time) and forecasts (up to 3- days, from 3-15 days, and up to 4-6 months) and climate data (1- month and 1- year periods) of all of the primary hydrometeorological and related environmental indica-tors. In general all of these products are needed at a much high quality, quantity and more timely than currently available. • Historical data on water flow/runoff, precipitation and air temperature events generated for of water flow/runoff, precipi-tation and air temperature. • Assessments of changing hydrometeorological hazards associated with climate change and climate variability to support long-term mitigation and adaptation efforts. • More effective interaction between qualified Tajikhydromet staff and users through targeted consultations and joint training workshops.

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

The economic assessment carried out under this study sought to estimate the potential aggregate benefits that accrue to busi-ness activities in the country from the improved quality (accuracy and timeliness) of the hydrometeorological information and services delivered by Tajikhydromet following its modernization. The benefits associated with the economic value of hydrometeo-rological information for the household sector were not assessed given the time and financial constraints. The value of potentially saved lives and reduced injuries was also beyond the scope of the assessment.


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The assessment approaches envisage generalization and calculation of country wide losses from EHHs and HHs and estima-tion of possible variation of the share and absolute amount of incremental effects (benefits in terms of potentially avoided losses) due to more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information and forecasts as a result of modernization program. It was as-sumed that benefits of modernization will be realized during 7 years (implementation of the Program and effective operation of the new technologies, hardware and equipment, as well as the NMHS fixed assets at the post implementation stage). Therefore, the potential returns on modernization investments were calculated by comparing aggregate amount of incremental benefits during the 7- year period and the program’s costs.

Economic losses were generalized and estimated on the basis of three independent approaches, namely meteorological risks assessment, benchmarking method and sector-specific assessment.

There are a number of complexities in the assessment of economic benefits for Tajikistan similar to that observed in the other countries of ECA region where the team has undertaken economic review of weather-related damages. The main concern is the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses (both in physical and value terms) incurred by the economy, its sectors and population from the entire range of EHHs and HHs. Thus it was necessary to apply several complementary approaches to double check data and ensure the integrity of the results.

The economic efficacy of investing in the Tajikhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmarking and sector-specific assessment methods. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the sector-specific assessments.

The results of benchmarking assessment showed that the total average annual amount of direct damage, associated with hy-drometeorological hazards, was not less than USD25 million in 2006 prices (1.04% of the average annual GDP in 2000-2007). The absolute values of average annual preventable losses (about USD6 million) were obtained by assessing the prevented loss factor which, in the case of Tajikistan, was 0.20, i.e. lower than in Kyrgyzstan (0.29), and much lower than the mean prevented loss factor for Kazakhstan (0.33) and Turkmenistan (0.35).

According to the sector-specific assessment using official data from CoES and estimates of potential indirect losses, average annual economic losses from EHHs and HHs were evaluated in TJS USD37 million (1.6% of GDP).

Potential annual economic benefits from the implementation of the proposed Modernization Program (it was assumed for as-sessment purposes that the current conditions would improve by two grades: from “very poor” to “adequate”) range from USD1.7 million (“benchmarking” assessment) to USD3.1 million (upper bound of “sector-specific” assessment) per year. Assuming that this annual economic effect is sustainable; within 7 years of implementation, the total benefits of Program implementation will equal from USD12 million to USD22 million. Economic efficacy of investments in Program implementation (USD6.1 million) will vary from 200% to 360%, respectively, or, in other words, each dollar spent on Tajikhydromet modernization may yield at least USD2.0 3.6 of benefits as a result of avoided damage.

PROPOSED MODERNIZATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

Recommendation on the technical upgrading of the NMHS developed under this study are based on (i) review of the current status of EHH and HH detection and forecasting, and provision of relevant warnings to the population and national economy; (ii) Tajikistan obligations under international and interstate agreements; (iii) results of ongoing international assistance projects; (iv) the needs of the economy for hydrometeorological services, (v) the growing need for dedicated climate services; (vi) review of the cur-rent status of the NMHS, the 2007- 2016 Program of Reconstruction of Hydrometeorological Observational Sites, and capacity to ensure the functioning of the system.

NMHS modernization is primarily aimed at reducing the risks to human life and potential damage to Tajikistan economy as a result of weather and climate events, and fulfillment of NMHS regional and international obligations, first and foremost, assessment of water resources, improvement of cooperation between the NMHS and final users of hydrometeorological data and information products, and maintenance of the NMHS capacity through improving its institutional, staff and financial sustainability.

Two options for the modernization were considered. The first provides for the modernization of the observing network and new service capabilities at a cost of USD6.09 million. The second is a low cost option aimed at stabilizing the current service and avoiding further deterioration at a cost of USD1.39 million.

The preferred first option involves a large scale technical and institution modernization of Tajikhydromet, which will allow it to deliver more accurate and longer lead time forecasts and improved staff skills. Improved communication, data collection and presentation technologies will provide a better hydrometeorological service delivery system, will make it possible to:

• Achieve the key objective of modernization, i.e. reduce the risk to life and damage to the economy caused by weather and climate-related events and disasters; • Fulfill regional and international obligations of Tajikistan;• Fill the gap between increasing demands of the Government for hydrometeorological information and capabilities of Tajik-hydromet to deliver the required information and information products;


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• Achieve a “satisfactory” level of Tajikhydromet in terms of technology (compared with the general technological level of NMHSs of WMO Member States). To fulfill these tasks requires concrete actions that will achieve the following outcomes:• An improved system of hydrometeorological monitoring and forecasting capable of providing timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and managing water resources. Key elements:

o Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication systemo Restore and upgrade the meteorological observational networko Renew key observation sites of the hydrological network, and equip the operating posts with the requiredo Establish quality control of hydrometeorological data and productso Strengthening the IT base of Tajikhydromet

• Enhanced service delivery. Key elements include:o Restoring the system of warnings about EHH and HE provided to public authorities, economic entities and local communi-ties in areas subject to the risk of EHH and HE occurrenceo Develop cooperation with national and regional authorities in providing warnings about extreme and hazardous weather events, including the development of coordination planso The capacity to understand and interact effectively with stakeholders using staff trained appropriately o Create a national climate service within Tajikhydrometo Continuous engagement of stakeholders through frequent meetings and workshops to understand the changing needs of users and current performance of Tajikhydrometo Establishing a customer advisory body, which includes representatives of all stakeholders o Easily accessible products through the web and other media o Well defined service agreements between the Tajikhydromet and each customero Special attention to key user groups

• Improve staff trainingo Project managemento Technical skills to support observing networkso Enhanced skills in weather forecasting using numerical methodso Knowledge of social, environmental, and economic sectors sufficient to provide consulting services to their userso Enhanced skill in climate prediction using numerical methodso Greater computer literacy for all staffo Public education and outreacho IT management skills

NEXT STEPS

Implementation period of the NMHS modernization project will largely depend on availability of funding for modernization, Tajikistan’s commitment to reorganizations during the transition to a new model of NMHS operations, and timely allocation of budget funds to finance reconstruction and rehabilitation of office and residential buildings, and hydrological facilities at meteoro-logical and hydrological stations proposed for technical upgrading.

Since the modernization of the observational network envisages primarily standard activities, project implementation is ex-pected to take up 3-4 years.

Preliminary results of the study were presented to the government stakeholders at the end of November 2008 at the consulta-tion workshop. Participants of the workshop supported the findings as recorded in the workshop recommendations. It is expected that the Action plan for improvement of weather, climate and hydrological services delivery in Tajikistan elaborated further in this report will be supported by the Government.

Financing of the Action Plan will likely be a combination of governmental funds, concessional financing from international financial institutions (IFIs), and international and bilateral donors’ support. It is possible that program of Tajikhydromet moderniza-tion will be supported by the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). Tajikistan was recently nominated to become a partici-pant in this Program. The Action Plan will also be an integral part of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (CAREC DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters.

The CAC DRMI incorporates three focus areas: (i) coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) financ-ing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. The initiative would be coordinated by World Bank, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World


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Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the CAREC umbrella. The Initiative will build on the existing cooperation that already exists in the region, and will complement and consolidate activities of the IFIs, the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN agencies, regional cooperation institutions, bilateral donors such as the Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC), Japan International Coop-eration Agency (JICA), and others to promote more effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. It was agreed by donors and international organizations to convene in November 2009 a regional Central Asia Workshop aimed at improvement of hydrometeorological services and early warning systems. It is hoped that specific approaches towards funding commitments as well regional coordination and implementation modalitied will be made during this workshop.


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CHAPTER 1. KEY WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS

1.1. MAIN GEOGRAPHICAL AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS1

Tajikistan is a landlocked country and the smallest by area in Central Asia. It is located in the south-eastern part of the region between 36040’ and 41005’ N, and 67031’ and 75014’ E. Tajikistan occupies an area of about 143.1 thousand km2, stretching from west to east for 680 km, narrowing in its middle part to 100 km, and having a long flange in the north west. In the west and in the north, the territory of Tajikistan boarders with the republics of Uzbekistan (910 km) and Kyrgyzstan (630 km); with Afghanistan (1,030 km) in the south; and with China (430 km) in the east. The total length of Tajikistan’s national boundaries equals 3000 km (Figure 1.1).

About 93% of Tajikistan is mountainous with one half of the territory located at or above 3000 above sea level. The lower elevations of Tajikistan are divided into northern and southern regions by a complex of three mountain chains that constitute the westernmost extension of the massive Tian Shan system. Running essentially parallel from east to west, the chains are the Turkestan, Zeravshan Gissar Mountains. The last of these lies just north of the capital, Dushanbe, which is situated in west central Tajikistan. The highest altitude is the Somoni peak (7495 m above sea level).

In general, Tajikistan’s climate is continental, subtropical, and semi-arid, with some desert areas. The climate is determined by three factors: solar radiation, atmospheric circulation, and the complicated relief of its mountains.

Tajikistan is divided into five zones: Northern Tajikistan, South-Western Tajikistan, Central Tajikistan, the Western Pamirs, and the Eastern Pamirs. These zones differ from each other in climatic conditions, relief, geological structure, flora, fauna, and human population.

Wide valleys and plains rising up to 1000 m contain the main arable farming and cotton growing areas. These include: the South-Western part of the country, Gissar, Vaksh, Lower Kafirnigan and Kulyab Valleys, as well as Fergana Valley with adjoining flatlands of the Sogd Region. These valley and plains are noted for high temperatures in summer associated with a summer thermal depression. Fair and hot weather predominate in summer months, the highest temperatures reaching between 43 and 470 С. The mean monthly temperature in July (the hottest month) is between 28 and 300 С.

The cold season is characterized by Arctic air intrusions where air temperatures, even in southern areas, can fall to between -24 and -30 0С on some days. Mean monthly temperatures in January are, however, mostly positive, though in some northern areas (Khujand) the average temperature may be below freezing.

Large temperature variations, frequently passing through 0 0С are typical for this zone. Spring frosts in most areas end in late March, and the first autumn frosts occur in the second half of October. The valleys of South-Western Tajikistan have the longest frost-free periods (up to 260 days).

The transitory zone between valleys and highlands (up to 2500 m) includes: Zeravshan Valley, the mountain areas of Central Tajikistan, and a part of Western Pamir. In summer, fair and dry though cooler weather dominates. The zone is character-ized by temperatures, which gradually decreasing with altitude. The impact of orography on the temperature is particularly pro-nounced. In winter months, air temperatures on open slopes and in passes are higher than in the closed depressions where strong cooling occurs. Correlations between concave and convex terrain forms are opposite in summer.

Mean monthly temperatures in January range from -1 0С in lower parts of Zeravshan Valley to -7 0С in the mountains of Cen-tral Tajikistan. Relatively high winter temperatures are noted in Western Pamir where the mean monthly air temperature is positive in some areas. The absolute minimum in this area is -340 С. July is the hottest month in the year with mean monthly temperature ranging from 25 0С in Zeravshan Valley to 18 0С in the mountains of Central Tajikistan. The absolute maximum is between 36 and 40 0С. Early autumn frosts occur in the second half of October, and late spring ones – in the second half of April. The frost–free period generally lasts for 200 days in the valleys and for 150 days at 2500 m.

High altitude areas (above 2500 m) include Central and Eastern Pamir, and mountain ridges. At these altitudes, the diurnal and seasonal temperature variations are high. Eastern Pamir has especially severe climate conditions. Winters are long and cold with mean January temperatures ranging from -14 0С to -26 0С. The absolute minimum is -630 С (Bulunkul). Summers are short and cool with the mean air temperature not exceeding +150 С. The absolute maximum temperatures are between 20 and 340 С. This region has up to 111 frost-free days, but frosts occur daily in the coldest areas.

1 This section is based on background materials prepared by the Tajikhydromet experts (Safarov, 2005 and 2008) and available information sources.


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The distribution of precipitation depends mainly on the location and orientation of mountain ranges and, consequently, on the air mass circulation. Tajikistan has two distinct humid zones. An arid climate zone encompasses the valley in Western and North-ern Tajikistan, piedmonts of the Turkestan Ridge, as well as the vast high-mountain area in the Eastern Pamir with 50-300 mm of precipitation per year. The remainder of the country, referred to as the semi-arid zone, has up to 900 mm of rainfall everywhere except on the upwind southern slopes of the Gissar Ridge where precipitation can exceed 1800 mm per year. The observed dif-ferences in annual precipitation amounts are mainly caused by orographic effects. For example, while the open slopes receive a lot of precipitation, the internal areas of vast rock masses, especially deep depressions, closed and narrow valleys, receive very little precipitation. For example, the amount of precipitation in the Vakhsh River Valley is a third of the rainfall at the same altitude on the southern slopes of the Gissar Ridge. The Zeravshan River valley is also dry with the annual precipitation amount making up 190-340 mm. Southern Tajikistan is very dry with not more than 150-200 mm of rainfall per year.

The annual precipitation pattern varies with region. The annual pattern with minimum precipitation amount in summer months is typical for most of the territory. Maximum precipitation falls in March-April in valleys and piedmonts, and in April-May in high mountain areas. On the average, 15-20% of precipitation in piedmonts of Tajikistan falls as snow. The amount of solid precipita-tion increases with altitude rising to 50-70% and reaching its maximum in the Pamir (85-90%), and at Fedchenko Glacier (100%).

The total sunshine duration ranges from 2100 to 3170 hours per year. The shortest duration occurs in mountain areas where it is often cloudy. The longest duration is observed in the flatlands of Northern Tajikistan, Gissar and Zeravshan Valleys, South West-ern Tajikistan and Pamir. In general, the cloud cover annually reduces incoming solar radiation by 32-35% in the valleys, and by 50% in mountain areas. The maximum intensity of solar radiation occurs in May June. The intensity of total radiation in piedmont areas ranges from 280 to 925 MJ/m2 and from 360 to 1120 MJ/m2 in high-altitude areas.

Most of the Tajikistan territory from November through May is dominated by easterly, north easterly and northerly winds (50-70%). From June through October, south-westerly, westerly and north-westerly winds predominate (40-60%). However, in some areas, due to orographic influence, winds are predominantly from one direction. Local orographic atmospheric circulations occur in individual parts of valleys and depressions. Mountain and valley winds characterized by a daily change of direction (at nights winds blow from the mountains down to valleys, and in the daytime – from the valleys to the mountains) combined with slope winds are most widespread in the mountains. In some areas strong winds are caused by orography combined with frontal processes over the adjacent flatlands. Winds of this type are especially strong at crevasse and depression outlets (“Ursatyevsky” wind at the Fer-gana Valley outlet). In the south of Tajikistan, a combination of the same orographic effect with frontal processes causes hot Afghani winds accompanied by dust storms. Mean annual wind speeds in Tajikistan vary between about 1 and 6 ms -1. The annual wind speed pattern is governed by the annual intensity of atmospheric circulation and regional centers of atmospheric action. Minimum wind speeds occur mainly in winter or autumn, and maximum speeds in spring or summer. Almost all stations annually measure winds of 15 ms -1. Winds with the speed of 20 ms -1 occur in the Sogd Region and in southern areas of the Republic, as well as at mountain passes. Winds speed equal to 30-40 ms -1 (108 – 144 km h -1) occurs once every 5 to 10 years.

Tajikistan is a large center for glaciers in the Central Asia, which regulate regional river runoff and climate. There are over eight thousand glaciers in Tajikistan, occupying about 6% of the country, which play an essential role in the formation of Amu Darya River flow. This is the largest water system of Central Asia and Aral Sea basin, which is shared by Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. On average, glacial melt in Tajikistan contributes 10-20% of the total runoff in the major regional river systems, while in dry and hot periods the input of glacial water into summer flow can be as high as 70%. Water is critically important for agriculture and hydropower production, which are the economic sectors that drive Tajikistan’s economy and are highly dependent on water availability.

The rivers of Tajikistan are important sources feeding the Aral Sea. They are essential for cotton growing and the hydropower industry of Central Asia and Tajikistan. There are four main watersheds: Syrdarya River (northern Tajikistan), Zeravshan River (central Tajikistan), Pyanj River (South-Western Tajikistan and the Pamirs), and the basin of saltwater lakes in the Eastern Pamirs. The major rivers of Tajikistan include Pyanj, Vakhsh, Syrdarya, Zeravshan, Kafirnigan, and Bartang. There are 947 rivers, which are more than 10 km long. The total length of rivers is 28,500 km with an average flow of about 56 km3 y -1. Mean annual runoff varies from 1 l s -1km 2 in the plains up to 45 l s -1km 2 in the mountains. In high-water periods, characterizing by an intensive snow melting and heavy rains (April-August), many rivers bear a lot of suspended particles (over 5 kg m -3) (Tajikistan 2002, State of the Environment Report).

Annual river runoff variations in Tajikistan are dictated by the environment and depend on water storage in watersheds. Gen-erally, there is a close relationship between annual river runoff variation and elevation of basins. The annual hydrological cycle of rivers in Tajikistan is divided into two periods: spring-summer high-water season and low-water season. Depending on river feeding and duration of the high water season, floods are experienced during either the whole of the season or some part of it, accompanied by sharp and sometimes significant rises in water level and water discharge caused by peaks of rainfall runoff com-bined with high water impact.

The high water season on rivers in the mountain can be 4-6 month long due to gradual melting of snow lying in the basin. For the same reason, maximum water discharges caused by snow melt very rarely lead to disasters. In comparison, on lowland rivers with a watershed area and snow storage, the high water season is 5-10 times shorter and maximum snow melt water discharges are several times higher because all of the snow melts at the same time across the whole watershed area.


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2 Muhabbatov, Holnazar.

From 70% to 90% of the total annual runoff across all of the rivers of Tajikistan fall on the high-water season. The low-water season begins in June-November and ends in February-May depending on the type of river feed. On rivers with watersheds lo-cated higher than 2.0 km, the average duration of the low water season is 170 days, on rivers with watershed lower than 2.0 km, it is 220 days2.

Almost all rivers in low and mid-mountain areas experience mudflows caused by soil erosion, sharp incline of channels, debris in channels and on slopes, intensive snowmelt and heavy rains in summer spring period.

There are over 1300 lakes in Tajikistan, about 80% of them are located at an altitude above 3000 m and have a surface area less than 1 km2. The total surface of large lakes exceeds 680 km2. By their origin, the lakes are subdivided into tectonic, erosive, and glacial. The largest is the salt water Lake Karakul (3914 m above sea level) with a surface area of 380 km2. The deepest is the freshwater Lake Sarez (3239 m above sea level), which exceeds 490 m and has a surface of 86.5 km2.

Figure 1.2: Fedchenko glacier main body and tongue

Source: Tajikhydromet http://www.meteo.tj/eng/photogallery_1.html

Box 1.1. Glacier retreat in Tajikistan due to climate warming

Warming trends in high-altitude areas of Tajikistan, namely in the Pamirs and Zeravshan Mountains, are causing observable changes in the climate sensitive environments such as glaciers.Pamirs’s Fedchenko Glacier, the largest valley glacier of Central Asia, is currently retreating at rates 10-16 m per year, and its total retreat in the past 100 years is more 1 km. Almost all Fedchenko Glacier’s tributaries have become separated from its main body. Its surface in the lower part thinned by 50 m in the past 25 years and now covered by multiple glacial lakes and debris.Garmo Glacier is covered by debris and moraines and is melting most intensively in parallel breaking into blocks. At times the speed of the gla-cier’s retreat is as much as 100 m a year. Since the first observation in 1932 to 2007 the glacier has retreated more than 7 km, which makes it the most significant retreat among the large glaciers of Central Asia over the same period of time.Many other glaciers are also retreating. By the end of 20th century, Saukdara glacier in the Pamirs and Zeravshan glacier in central Tajikistan shrank by 2 km. Hundreds of small glaciers, such as Diahandara glacier (area less 1 km2) totally disappeared – only dust and moraine indicate their former existence. The dramatic retreat of the glaciers on the Pyanj (Amu Darya) River’s left bank in the Afghan Badakhshan (Safedi-Khirs, Kuhi-Lal, Gindikush, Wahan) is observed by satellite remote sensing. Comparison of the cartographic materials from the 1950s, 1980s and the latest satellite imaginary suggest that glaciers of Afghanistan may have declined by 50-70%.At high elevations, 4,000 m and above, where the climate is cold and severe, glacial retreat is less pronounced and for some glaciers degrada-tion rates are 1-2 m per year.If the current rates of glacial retreat continue or intensify, we estimate that by 2050 the glacier area of Tajikistan could be reduced by 15-20% and many smaller glaciers will have disappeared. Climate warming is causing the retreat of glaciers and generation of large amounts of uncon-solidated debris and glacial lakes which present a high risk for downstream communities in case of floods. Moreover, melting of glaciers are affecting the hydrology of many important rivers, such as Zeravshan, Vakhsh, Pyanj, Kafirnigan, Obihingou. Considering Tajikistan’s mountains and glaciers as water towers of Central Asia (about 50% of freshwater resources are formed here), the impact of climate change and glacier degradation in the long-term could shift and reduce water supply, affecting the agricultural and energy security and sustainable development of the Amu Darya river basin. Source: Tajikhydromet, 2007


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1.2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS AND THEIR SOCIO–ECONOMIC

IMPACTS

1.2.1. HIGH IMPACT WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS CLASSIFICATION

AND CLIMATOLOGY

The economy and environment of Tajikistan are affected by complex processes. Mountainous landscapes and intensive anthro-pogenic activities promote disasters that can result in emergency situations. Hydrometeorological hazards and their consequences pose the greatest threat to the economy and people in the form of economic losses. These events cause considerable damage to property and loss of life.

Up to 300 extreme hydrometeorological hazards occur in the Republic during the year, which have a significant impact on the country’s economy. A wide range of hydrometeorological hazards are monitored and forecast by the State Agency for Hydro-meteorology (Tajikhydromet) on a regular basis. They include: high and low air temperatures, droughts, frosts, strong wind, dust storms, heavy precipitation, snow avalanches and mudflows, glaze-ice and rime deposition, thunderstorms, hail, and dense fogs.

A standard classification of hydrometeorological events and unfavorable weather conditions by intensity and impact on the economy and population is used in Tajikistan. By these criteria extreme (high impact) hydrometeorological hazards (EHHs), in-cluding hydrometeorological disasters, and hydrometeorological hazards (HHs) are identified. Hydrometeorological events are classed as EHHs, when by intensity, territorial coverage or duration they can cause significant damage to the economy and popu-lation and pose a threat to people and the environment. Hydrometeorological events are classed as HHs when they hamper or stop operations in some sectors of the economy but by intensity, duration and territorial coverage do not reach criteria of EHHs.

A list of EHHs and HHs monitored by Tajikhydromet on a regular basis is given in Annex 1. Description and criteria of EHHs and HHs are also provided3.

In Tajikistan more than 15 different types of EHHs are encountered. Distribution of these events is determined by specific synop-tic processes interacting with the relief of the region. For example, the high space time variability of EHHs results from the interaction of moisture laden air flows and complicated relief. Some of the events are forecast, and warnings are issued enabling preventative measures, while for other events, such as thunderstorms, hail, squall wind, glaciological mudflows, this time is either too short or not provided at all.

Hazardous events are associated typically with precipitation in the form of heavy rains, snowfall, and hail with most of the emergency situations caused by heavy rains. Heavy precipitation presents the highest hazard in terms of both triggering other EHHs and impacts, including mudflows, floods and snow avalanches.

3 The criteria have remained the same since 1990.

Figure 1.3: Climate trends for selected hydrometeorological hazards


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Heavy rains, exceeding 20 mm received per half a day, cause mudflows. Mudflows make rivers spill over their banks resulting in flooding or dozens of kilometers. This causes considerable damage to the economy and loss of life; heavy mudflows destroy buildings and other infrastructure. Heavy rainfall, over 30 mm a day, contributes to erosion, causes serious damage to agriculture and provokes mudflow and landslide events and floods.

Snowfalls trigger descent of avalanches. Heavy snowfall and avalanches create snowdrifts on the roads resulting in traffic dis-ruption. They also increase loads on the roofs of buildings, break fruit and ornamental trees, worsen conditions for feeding animals, and create poor visibility at airports. They cause both considerable damage and human losses.

Hail frequently damages agriculture. Large hailstones damage farmlands and orchards and kill livestock and birds. The center of most hail events is in the foothills of Gissar range. The number of days with hail increases with altitude. At the same time, the maximum reoccurrence of hail ranges from 0.7-1 day in lowland areas to 4-8 days in high altitudes. The Gissar valley, known for its large frequency of hail events, has on average 1.9-3.5 days per year with hail. From the 1970s, the number of days with hail in lowland and foothill areas has been decreasing. However, in mountainous areas, the occurrence of hail has not changed, and has even increased in some areas. In 2002, hail damaged many farms in the Gissar valley and other regions of Tajikistan. In general, reduction of hailing frequency is due to the decrease of cold air mass intrusions that cause hail formation.

In valleys and piedmont areas, the maximum number of days with heavy precipitation is observed in late winter and spring; in highland areas, these occur in summer. Heavy rains, often take the form of showers. Incessant heavy rains occur in March-April. In the recent 30-40 years, in most of valley areas, the number of days with precipitation of 5 mm and more increased, especially in the central mountainous zones. The number of days with heavy precipitation (over 30 mm a day) increased in the foothills and Gissar valley. At the same time, the number of days with intense precipitation has decreased.

Heavy precipitation in areas below 2000 m contributes to the formation of high floodwaters and mudflows, which are ob-served frequently in the foothills and mountainous areas of Tajikistan. In high altitude areas, floods can result from a break through in temporary (glacial) lakes. According to the data of Tajikistan 2002 State of the Environment report (see Tajikistan, 2002), some 85% of Tajikistan’s area is threatened with mudflows and 32% of the area is situated in the high mudflow risk zone (see Figure 1.4).

High floodwaters are usually short-term, but cause huge damage to settlements and the national economy. During the last 30- 40 years an increase in the number of days with disastrous floods has been observed.

The southeast slopes of Gissar range, northern slopes of Turkestan range and southern slopes of Kuramin range are the areas with greatest flood activity, particularly in the basins of Yakhsu, Varzob, Vakhsh, Zeravshan and Obihingou rivers. The high-moun-tain area of the Eastern Pamirs and the lower reaches of rivers are not threatened with mudflows. The highest mudflow risk is in April and May. In the foothills and middle mountains mudflows occurs mainly in spring, while in high-altitudes in summer. Intensive precipitation is the main reason for mudflow formation (80%).

Heavy snowfalls most frequently occur in active orographic areas higher than 1400-1500 m (above sea level), i.e., in pied-mont and mountain regions. 2003-2006 were comparatively snowy years. In 2003 the amount of snow was 1.5 times normal causing loss of life and extensive damage in Pamir with 18 people killed; the following year saw a similar winter with 5 people killed. In 2005, there were 10 fatalities, and in 2006, 18 people were killed. Snowfalls trigger avalanches, which kill people and cause considerable damage.

Figure 1.4: Flood and mudflow risks


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Snow avalanches occur in the area higher than 1500 - 2000 m above sea level. Basic conditions for the formation of ava-lanches are slopes with a gradient of 30-50°, snow cover more than 30 cm, and relevant meteorological conditions. In Tajikistan, the major reason for avalanches is fresh snow formation (60-70%). Avalanches normally occur between November and April, and occasionally in May. A State of Emergency was declared in Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) region on January 27, 2006 where over the previous six days, more than 200 avalanches of varying intensity had been reported in all of the GBAO districts. Multiple houses were destroyed with 15-20 households displaced, and there was one confirmed ca-sualty. As a result of the avalanches, all major roads leading into the region were closed (Source: SDC, 2006b).

Avalanches in March are the most hazardous. The most avalanche prone regions of Tajikistan are West Pamir, Darvaz, Kara-tegin, and the southern slopes of the Gissar ridge at the height of over 2000 m above sea level. Avalanche danger stops the traffic every winter on one of the most important highways – Dushanbe-Khujand.

Strong winds are often observed in the bottlenecks of valleys (Khudjand). Wind speeds of 20 ms -1 are annually recorded in the Northern Tajikistan and Eastern Pamir, southern regions of the republic (Shahrituz, Nizhni Pyanj). In the Central Tajikistan such winds are observed in Faizabad. Wind speeds of 30 ms -1 occur only on Anzob pass.

Dust storms are distributed unevenly over the country and mainly occur in the southern deserts and arid regions for 1-4 months in the spring summer period. They raise thousands of tons of soil and sand into the air, considerably increasing the concen-tration of suspended particles in the atmosphere. A lot of farms suffer from these events, which decrease crop productivity. A long lasting dust storm and haze in Tajikistan was observed in 2001.

Extremely-high temperatures. The zone of an adverse thermal regime (temperatures greater than or equal to 40°C) cov-ers the entire plain areas of the republic. With increasing maximum temperatures, the number of days with temperature above 40°C has increased. Observational data indicate an upward trend of 30% in the number of days with temperature above 40°C in almost all the plains of the republic.

Box 1.2. Recent floods damages

After torrential rains in mid-may 2005, several districts in Tajikistan were affected by floods. Torrential rains from 10 to 12 May caused flash floods in Rudaky (RRS), Murgab (GBAO), Ganchy, Istaravshan and Bobojon Gafurov (Sughd Oblast) districts. According to the Ministry of Emergencies, more than 660 houses and 12km of roads, 200 hectares of cotton fields and other crops and bridges were washed away along with electricity pylons and telegraph poles. In the village of Kuktosh in Rudaki district over 200 homes and buildings were destroyed. Some districts of the southern Khatlon province were also affected, with 36 houses damaged and part of the local railway line washed away (Source: IFRC. 2005).Heavy rainfall, which hit the eastern part of Tajikistan from 16 to 18 April 2007, affected five districts. The resulting flooding caused severe damage to public and private buildings as well as bridges, roads, dikes and dams, disrupted water supply systems and activated landslides. In a number of places, the public infrastructure was destroyed or seriously damaged. Infrastructure in the regions was already poor, and many residential buildings were severely damaged also. Arable land and crops were destroyed, basements and gardens flooded and most of the cattle drowned. The most seriously affected regions were Rudaky, Tursunzade, Varzob and Vahdat districts (RRS) and Panjakent district of Sughd oblast. The population from a number of affected villages had to be relocated for their safety. Most families whose houses were damaged or destroyed found temporary shelter with relatives, friends or neighbors. The situation assessments conducted by international agencies and a na-tional emergency commission reported that in total one person died and 17,184 people from 46 villages were directly affected by these floods. In addition, 2,089 houses were damaged (out of which more than 209 were completely destroyed), 1,880 houses partly damaged and many people lost their foodstock and home properties . Source: DREF. 2008

Figure 1.5 Flood and Mudflow Damages

Source: Tajikhydromet http://www.meteo.tj/eng/photogallery_1.html


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Drought is one of the severest meteorological phenomena often closely as-sociated with extended period of high temperatures. Agriculture is often exposed to hazardous events and drought is the most important among them. For Tajikistan local droughts occur every year. But it can also suffer extensive severe droughts, which simultaneously cover practically the whole territory of the country. During last 60 years, 8 cases of severe droughts have occurred in Tajikistan (in 1940, 1947, 1956, 1971, 1980, 1988, 2000 and 2001). Especially severe droughts were in 1971, 2000 and 2001. In spring of 2000 a severe drought covered the whole territory of the Republic. The mean air temperature was 2.5-50°С above normal with no precipitation at all. A similar drought occurred in the spring of 2001: in the summer and autumn period, a lack of atmospheric precipitation caused soil drought. In these years rain-fed farmlands and winter pastures suffered the most; in contrast, in the area of irrigated agriculture, high temperatures facilitated early rip-ening of fruits and berries. Drought, combined with increasing poverty and decline in productivity of agriculture, aggravates the problem of food security in Tajikistan. The southern regions of the country and Gissar valley, where the greatest number of days with average and severe droughts are observed, are particularly vulnerable (see Fig. 1.7)

Figure 1.6 Snow avalanche prone area

Source: Safarov, 2008b

Figure 1.7 Droughts during 1997 – 2007 *

* green color no severe drought, yellow color – 1 event, red color 2 events

Source: Mirzokhonova, Natalia. 2008b.

Box 1.3 Cold Wave in 2008

In 2008, Tajikistan experienced an unusually cold winter; reportedly the coldest in 25 years. Temperatures in January and February averaged minus 15°C compared to the winter average temperature of between minus 1°C to plus 3°C. In some rural areas the temperature dropped as low as minus 25°C. Heavy snowfall in December was, according to the Tajikhydromet Agency, 245 percent above the average for this time of the year. This uncommonly cold and precipitous weather lasted until mid February, when the cold wave passed and temperatures began to rise. The damage that the prolonged period of cold weather had on the population, especially those already vulnerable, continued to have an im-pact, even after the temperatures had risen. The water levels of the reservoir at the hydro-electric Nurek Power Plant, which produces 60 percent of the national electricity supply, fell dramatically. This forced the government to impose power restrictions on most residential areas of Dushanbe

Low temperatures. Daily mean temperatures of air equal and below -10°C are also considered dangerous weather events. Annually, the plains have the least number of days with low temperatures (0.2-0.8 days), although in some years this number increases up to 5-15 days. The most frequent is in mountainous areas, especially in low depressions, mountain passes, and tops of high mountain ranges. Frosts with an air temperature in valley piedmont areas lower than -100С occur in Tajikistan once every 5-7 years and damage fruit-farming and cattle breeding as well as the water resources, energy and transport sectors.


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1.2.2. SOCIO–ECONOMIC DAMAG ESTIMATES

METHOD OF ESTIMATES

The socio-economic impacts of hydrological and meteorological risks (in the aggregate and by types of EHHs and HHs) were estimated on the basis of integration of losses suffered by the economy due to specific hydrometeorological events (e.g. by mud-flows, avalanches, floods, rainstorms, strong wind, drought, etc.).

Two parameters are used to estimate the hydrological and meteorological risk (hereinafter – meteorological risk) of impact of certain events on the economy:

• Hazard of event impact (or its climate frequency/frequency of its occurrence); and• Vulnerability to event impact (an absolute value of economic losses caused by the event in case of both correct and incor-rect forecasts/warnings). Economic damage caused by dangerous weather conditions and extreme hydrometeorological events is estimated in two

stages. At the first stage hazard of impact of different events (their climate frequency/ frequency of its occurrence) is estimated on the basis of the data from hydrometeorological archives. At the second stage vulnerability of the economy to impact of specific HHs and EHHs is estimated by multiplying frequency of occurrence and average annual economic losses per one event of specific hydrometeorological phenomenon.

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

Estimates are made on the basis of: • Climate and meteorological data and fragmentary economic information of Tajikhydromet and sectoral experts; • Operational reports, catalogs and analytical summaries of the Information Analysis Center of the RT Committee of Emer-gency Situations and Civil Defense (CoES). • A database of hydrometeorological emergencies by specific events including cost estimates has been developed and updated by CoES for the period since 1997); and• Data from available studies or reports. Tajikhydromet is responsible for the collection, maintenance and storage of data on EHHs and HHs. Until 1996 automatic pro-

cessing of observational data was handled at the Central Asian Regional Computer Center (CARCC) in Tashkent. Since 1997 the electronic database has not been maintained, instead all the observational data are kept in hard copies. This makes is practically impossible to obtain reliable and consistent data on occurrence and intensity of EHHs and HHs for the recent 10 years. Develop-ment of databases on EHHs in Tajikhydromet is hindered by staff, technological and financial problems.

To fill this gap, the information from CoES was used as a primarily source of information on occurrence and losses associated with hydrometeorological emergencies. In accordance with the agreement between CoES and the Committee for Environmental Protection, Tajikhydromet provides forecasts/warnings and data on EHHs to CoES.

CoES is the principal governmental body conducting monitoring of natural, man made, environmental and bio social emergen-cies, their mitigation and prevention. Information on the current situation is provided by the oblast level units of CoES. It is processed and reviewed by the Information Analysis Center of CoES (IAS) which generalizes the data in a special form “1-ChS” for further submission to the State Committee of Statistics (see Annex 2).

CoES also relies on information from sectoral monitoring systems. In particular data and alerts on earthquakes are received from the Seismological Institute; on epidemiological prognosis and situation from the Ministry of Health; on epizootics and epi-phytotics from the Ministry of Agriculture, and on industrial pollution from the Ministry of Industry. The Committee on Environmental Protection and, in particular, Tajikhydromet provides information on hydrometeorological situation, avalanches, floods, water

from early February and the majority of rural areas experienced a complete cut off of electricity. Power for industry and factories was tightly rationed. This was a major factor behind the government estimates that the crisis cost the economy 850 million US dollars in damage and lost revenue (source: UN Tajikistan Flash Appeal 2008). Many urban workers lost one month’s income as business shut due to the lack of electric-ity. The unusually cold weather exhausted food and fuel stocks, which in turn led to an increase in prices. In addition to the electricity shortages at the local and national levels, limited access to water due to many burst or frozen water pipes aggravated the living conditions of the entire population of Tajikistan for two months. The lack of electricity for pumping resulted in the use of unprotected water sources and hence contribut-ing to poor sanitation and hygiene conditions. The severe cold also damaged crops and seeds, contributed to increased morbidity and mortality among livestock. High food prices, combined with the poor agricultural harvests of 2007 forced many households to sell their remaining assets of production to purchase food and medicines, The severe cold wave and related energy crisis in Tajikistan compounded acute levels of underlying poverty and human suffering resulting from a combination of natural, economic and social shocks. Source: IFRC 2008; UNOCHA 2008.


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flow, and EHHs warnings. The Ministry of Melioration and Water resources informs about breaks of dams and dyke breaches, and the conditions of bank-protection structures.

Taking into account that practically all of the sectoral monitoring and data transmission systems are in bad condition, the data are often incomplete, vague, outdated, or simply absent. Thus, hydrological information delivered by Tajikhydromet (on water level and inflow in rivers, sinking zoning during floods) is incomplete in terms of territorial coverage as a result of observation network reduction and/or the absence of operational communications with existent hydrological posts. A similar problem – the lack of snow cover observations-relates to the shortage of data on the conditions of outburst mountainous lakes and trans-boundary rivers (Pyanj, Zeravshan).

CoES estimates economic losses caused by EHHs and HHs. However, there are difficulties in maintaining these accounts due to the inadequate quality assessments of damage resulting from the lack of unified methodology and regulations (and as a conse-quence disagreement in damage assessment by types of emergencies), separate accounting for each type of emergences, stan-dards and tariffs for emergency rehabilitation works and accounting of expenditure for complete recovery of damaged facilities.

Another assessment accuracy issue is the reliability of the information inflow and communication systems. The number of hydro-meteorological emergencies is counted by summarizing information from operational telegrams. This may cause inconsistencies with single transmissions reporting on several EHHs or HHs (for instance, rainfall, hail and mudflow) in one telegram, and at the same time several telegrams from different districts reporting on a single event (for example, mudflow).

It should be also noted, that similar to other NMHSs in Central Asia, there are differences in approaches used by CoES and Ta-jikhydromet in registering hazards. Tajikhydromet records hydrometeorological events (hazards) based on exceedance of specific thresholds established for various physical parameters (e.g. wind speed, precipitation, temperature – see Annex 1) measured at hydrometeorological stations. CoES registers hazards based on damage (human, physical or monetary) in each administrative unit (district). The same hydrometeorological event causing damages in several districts will be registered as separate hazards in these districts. Nevertheless, CoES data is practically the only reliable source of information in terms of losses and much more complete in terms of geographical coverage (particularly after reduction of hydrometeorological networks in the 1980s and 1990s).

Faced with the problem of reliable information on actual losses from natural disasters while assessing the needs in disaster response, the Government, donors, UN agencies and NGOs established in 2001 the Rapid Emergency Assessment and Coor-dination Team (REACT) in Tajikistan led by UN OCHA. REACT coordinates the international emergency response and provides assistance to IAC of CoES in data compilation and analysis. It is chaired by the Government’s Committee of Emergency Situations (CoES). The UN Resident Coordinator acts as an ad hoc co-chair in the event of a disaster.

RESULTS OF THE ECONOMIC ESTIMATE OF METEOROLOGICAL RISKS

ESTIMATE OF CLIMATE HAZARD OF IMPACT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS

According to CoES data (see Annex 2), hydrometeorological emergencies pose the greatest threat to the economy and people (see Fig. 1.8). They account for about 80% of all natural hazards that lead to occurrence of emergency situations during 1997- 2007 (severe droughts – 1%, frosts, cold spells – 1%, floods – 6%, heavy rain and thunderstorms – 4%, snowfalls – 7%, strong wind 7%, mudflows – 23%, snow avalanches – 29%). The frequency of hydrometeorological emergencies, registered by CoES in the period under consideration, is more than 140 events per year on average.

Figure 1.8 Natural emergencies by type of events

(CoES records data for 1998 2007)


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A hazard of impact of different hydrometeorological events is considered, as mentioned above, through the frequency of their occurrence presented in Table 1.1. The information for different types of events is incomplete and was compiled from available data from Tajikhydromet and CoES.

The estimates summarized in Table 1.1 shows that hydrological hazards (mudflows, avalanches, and also floods) occur most frequently. For meteorological events, the highest annual occurrence refers to strong winds and hail. Snowfalls and heavy rains frequencies are comparable and rather low. Severe droughts and winter frosts are rare but their occurrence is dangerous due to extended coverage of the affected territory and induced losses.

Accuracy of forecasts of the most frequent EHHs and HHs is given in Table 1.2. It can be seen that, at the present time, the ac-curacy of EHH/HH forecasts and warnings is low: hail -0.3 (frequency of occurrence – 7.7); mudflows – 0.67/0.9 (the highest frequency of occurrence – 31.7); snow avalanches – 0.72 (frequency of occurrence – 26.6).

The comparison of statistics given for the frequency of occurrence and forecast accuracy of the most important EHHs and HHs imply that the priority needs for Tajikhydromet modernization are improvements in observation and forecasts of hydrological hazards.

ESTIMATE OF VULNERABILITY OF THE ECONOMY TO IMPACT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS

The impact of weather on the economy is manifested in the form of weather-related losses suffered by economic entities of dif-ferent sectors. The losses differ depending on specific features of the entity’s operation and capacity to resist impacts (technologies, resources, protection measures, adequate hydrometeorological information and capability to take appropriate management deci-sions for the current moment). According to Tajikhydromet experts’ assessment, almost all key sectors of the economy are exposed to significant impact of weather and climate phenomena.

Maximum registered and average annual economic losses by types of hydrometeorological events were estimated on the basis of summarized data on EHHs and HHs taken from the official statistics of economic losses prepared by Information Analysis Center (CoES) for State Committee of Statistics, selected catalogs of CoES for 2000-2007.

Total annual losses suffered by the economy of the country due to weather hazards were estimated on the basis of available

Events 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2007 Frequency

of occurrence

Severe Drought 1 1 1 0.12Winter frosts no data no data 6 1.1Heavy rain 18 26 58 3.0Snowfalls no data no data 21 3.0Hail 93 61 no data 7.7Strong wind no data no data 57 8.1Floods no data no data 71 10.3Avalanches 241 403 74 26.6Mudflows 310 284 262 31.7

Source: Aurthors’ estimates based available Tajikhydromet and CoES data.

Table 1.1. Frequency of EHHs and HHs occurrence

Accuracy of EHHs forecasts and warnings At present timeHeavy rain 0.92Heavy snowfall 0.91Heavy hail Mudflows 0.67Snow avalanches 0.93Accuracy of HHs forecasts and warnings At present timeHail 0.3Rain 0.9Snow avalanches 0.72Mudflows 0.9

Source: available Tajikhydromet data

Table 1.2. Accuracy of EHHs and HHs forecasts and warnings


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information on the average annual frequency of event occurrence and damage calculated per one event. The analysis shows that economic losses from the impacts of meteorological and hydrological emergencies are considerable:

average annual losses in prices of 2006 exceed TJS 98 million (or up to USD 30 million), that is about 1.3% of the Tajikistan GDP (average for 2000-2007).

Mudflows have the greatest impact on the economy and population both in terms of frequency of occurrence and in absolute amount of human, material and monetary losses. Totally, hydrological hazards (mudflows, floods, and avalanches) account for more than a half of the country’s weather-related damages and losses.

It is interesting to note that unlike in Kyrgyzstan the spring and autumn frosts in Tajikistan are not recorded as a significant hazard. This might be explained by more limited exposure to cold intrusions from the north, different relief and possibly the lack of relevant data in Tajikistan.

Severe drought ranks first among high-impact meteorological hazards, by absolute value of vulnerability. These events, though infrequent (the climate frequency of occurrence is 0.12), primarily affect agriculture, i.e. the sector that is most exposed to the impact of weather. This sector is also characterized by the highest degree of weather-dependence expressed by its share in GDP, which amounts to 25% on average for 2000-2007. A single drought event can cause extremely heavy damage. Thus, in 2001 economic losses from drought were estimated by CoES at 194 million TJS (USD 81.6 million), i.e. 7.6% of GDP. A World Bank re-port on droughts in Central Asia and the Caucasus (World Bank, 2005) estimated losses due to drought in 2000/01 of USD100 million (4.8% of total GDP and 16.8% of GDP in agriculture). Costs of relief and recovery operations undertaken in 2000-2002 were an additional USD104 million.

Together, mudflows, floods, avalanches and drought account for about 80% of the average annual losses to the economy due to EHHs and HHs. Thus, in formulating and implementing priority areas for development and technical and technological modern-ization of Tajikhydromet, attention should be focused primarily on better observation and forecasting of these hydrometeorological hazards.

Hazards Maximum registered

economic losses per

1 event,

TJS million

Average annual

economic losses per

1 event,

TJS million

Average annual

frequency of

occurrence (number

of events during

1981- 2007)

Average annual economic

losses

TJS million USD million

Mudflows 11.7 1.1 31.7 33.6 10.2Avalanches 1.3 0.1 26.6 2.7 0.8 Floods 27.0/156.0* 1.7 10.25** 17.5 5.3Rainstorms 4.6 1.6 3.0 5.0 1.5Hail 2.1 0.7*** 7.7 5.3 1.6Strong wind 0.9 0.4 8.1** 3.1 0.8Winter frosts 3.0 (2200****) 1.2 (88****) 1.1** 1.3 0.4Snowfall 2.6 0.5 3.0** 1.6 0.6Severe drought 324.3*/457 235.2 0.12 28.3 8.6Total 98.4 29.8

*Data from EM DAT, http://www.emdat.be /

** Average annual frequency of occurrence is calculated for 2000-2007.

*** The authors estimated average annual losses from hail on the basis of CoES catalogs for 2005-2006 taking into account that hail occurs in combination with other hazardous events.

**** Government estimated economic losses due to prolonged period of cold weather in 2008 (the coldest in 25 years) at USD850 million in damage and lost revenue for the economy as a whole (see UNOCHA, 2008). Taking into account the probability of this phenomena (4%), average annual economic losses as a result of winter frosts could amount to TJS 90 million, or USD27 million. That will actually double the level of average annual economic losses, and they could compound to USD57 million.

Source: Author’s estimates based on available CoES data, experts’ assessments, information from of available studies and reports

Table 1.3. Hydrometeorological risk assessment by types of weather events (2000-2007), in prices of 2006.


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1.3. WEATHER-DEPENDENCE OF ECONOMY

1.3.1. GENERAL INFORMATION ON SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY DEPENDENT ON WEATHER

CONDITION AND METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION

Tajikistan is an agricultural country. This most important sector (with 25 % annual average share in GDP for 2000-2007) strongly relies on cotton growing and export. Cereals, potatoes, vegetables, fruit and grapes are also cultivated and animal hus-bandry is well-developed due to the diversity of pastures.

Land areas for agricultural activities are limited due to the complex relief and geographical conditions. Farmlands (4.6 million ha) cover less than one-third of the country’s territory. The rest of the land is not suitable for agriculture and for settlement. Arable area is 1 million ha, 0.74 million ha of which is irrigated.

Tajikistan has a sufficient amount of water resources, but still, each year, agriculture has serious problems caused by untimely water delivery due to lack of electric power and breakdown of hydraulic engineering structures and water-lifting facilities. More than 40% of irrigated lands are used on the basis of mechanical irrigation and further extension of irrigated area depends on the rate of electric-power generation. Currently 20% of irrigated lands have water shortages. To solve this problem an additional 850 million m3 of water per year is needed.

Favorable climate conditions (up to 300 sunny days per year), vertical zoning and variety of soils enable extensive crop production to be developed, exceeding 75% of the total output of agricultural products. About 50 crops are grown in the country ranging from moderate to subtropical and tropical climate species. The most important export crop is cotton. Annually 0.45-0.55 million tons of cotton is harvested. Due to water delivery problems, the state of irrigation systems and changing weather conditions, the significance of grain crops (mainly wheat, but also rice, corn and barley) is growing. In 2008 the grain crop yield exceeded 0.9 million tons. Vegetable and fruit growing is also important.

Animal husbandry is less developed: dairy and meat cattle, horse, sheep and poultry breeding are being developed. The traditional focus on cotton has resulted in a disproportionate allocation of resources to this sector. In the cotton growing areas the farmers have a limited ability to grow forage crops, and consequently have constraints on livestock production. About 71 percent of the poor and 76 percent of the extremely poor live in rural areas and the livestock for the poor is a semblance of a savings ac-count. Livestock are not lost during a locust outbreak, can be sold to offset income losses or moved to other grazing areas.

Agriculture has been under reform and reorganization for more than 10 years. As a result 578 collective farms and state owned farms have been reorganized into more that 23 thousand dehkan (farmer) enterprises (farms), including more than 15 thousand family (individual) dehkan (farmer) enterprises (farms). Data on these farms are given in the table1.4.

Year 1992 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2005Number of farms 31 2386 8023 10233 9293 12639 23101Area of agricultural land, thousand ha

0,7 64,2 139,0 287,5 859,6 1395,5 2380,6

Average size of land plots, ha 22,6 26,9 17,3 28,1 92,5 115,6 103,1

Source: Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Tajikistan – Dushanbe, 2006

Table 1.4 Dehkan (farmer) enterprises (farms)

4 The Concept of the fuel and energy industries development in the Republic of Tajikistan for the period of 2003-2015. Adopted by Resolution 318 of 3 August 2002 of the Government of Tajikistan//Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Tajikistan /http://www.minenergo.tj/davomash_ru/energstrateg_ru.html

More than 2.4 million ha of agricultural lands are assigned to dehkan (farmer) enterprises (farms). They produce more than a half of the total agricultural output of the country including, 40% of animal husbandry products and 50% of crop products.

Today for each citizen of Tajikistan there is 0.1 ha of irrigated area, but with the current rate of the population growth, particu-larly in rural regions (more than 70% of population lives in rural regions) this figure may deduce to 0.08 ha by 2010. Decline of the irrigation system in recent years contributed to the reduction of arable lands and made rural people use mountain and sub- mountain areas. This in turn leads to the reduction of pasture areas and soil erosion, which triggers mudflows and floods resulting in damage to settlements.

Tajikistan has a considerable amount of various natural energy resources: coal, oil, gas, river runoff energy, solar radiation en-ergy, thermal water and wind energy. Hydro-energy production is significant, making the electric energy industry an important part of the Tajik economy. Tajikistan has the potential to be one of the world’s top ten hydro-energy producing countries, but currently not more than 5-7% of overall resources are used. Hydropower accounts for about 80% of the total potential energy resources of the country. It should be noted that hydro-energy resources are nearly evenly distributed over the territory of the country.

About 70% of the total hydro-energy resources of the Central Asia are under the control of Tajikistan. Electric energy, gener-ated by hydropower plants, accounts for more than 90%4 of the fuel and energy balance of the country.


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River basins Mean annual capacity,

MW

Mean annual energy

output, TWh

Share in the total

amount,%

Pyanj 100 122.90 23.2Gunt 2260 19.80 3.73Bartang 2969 26.01 4.93Vanch 1191 10.34 1.96Yazgulem 845 7.40 1.39Kyzyl Su 1087 9.52 1.78Vakhsh 28670 251.15 48.00Kafirnigan 4249 37.22 7.00Kara Kul Lake 103 0.90 0.17Surhan Darya 628 5.50 1.03Zeravshan 3875 33.94 6.38Syr Darya 260 2.28 0.43Total 60170 527.06 100.00

Source: Economics and investments. Investor Guide. Energy sector. Published with the assistance of the UN Development Program. 2008.

Table 1.5. Potential hydro-energy resources of Tajikistan

Based on stored energy resources, Tajikistan ranks eighth in the world, and by amount of energy resources per capita (87.8 thousand kWh per year/person). The total hydro-energy potential of the Republic is estimated at 527 billion kWh, technologically feasible potential – at 202 billion kWh and economically feasible potential – at 172 billion kWh. Development of the hydropower industry will not only enable an increase in the range and quality of services provided to other production sectors, which currently are not working at their highest efficiency due to the deficit of electric power, but also will make the power supply more accessible for the population.

According to the “Hydropower & Dams” Atlas Tajikistan produces 16-18 billion kWh of electric power per year and in winter the hydropower deficit amounts to 4-5 billion kWh. The largest users of electric power are the aluminum plant of Tajikistan and water pumps used to deliver water for agriculture (40% and 15% of the total usage respectively).

The basis of the Tajik energy sector is formed by hydro-power plants (HPPs) located on the Vakhsh, Pyanj and Syr-Darya Riv-ers. The energy potential of Vakhsh alone is estimated by energy experts at 45 billion kWh. On Vakhsh the largest hydro-power plant – the Nurek HPP – is located. Its capacity is 3000 MW. In addition several smaller HHPs are available on the river: Baipaza (600 MW), Golovnaya (240 MW), Perepadnaya (29.95 MW) and Central (15.1 MW) . Besides agreements on completion of Sangtuda HPP-1 and HPP-2 and Rogun HHP have been signed and currently are at different implementation stages. Putting these HPPs into operation will allow the electric power production in Tajikistan to be increased twofold – from 16 to 31-32 billion kWh per year.

The experts link future developments of the hydro-power industry of Tajikistan with the construction of small hydro-power plants (Box 1.4).

The industrial sector is diverse. Non-ferrous metals industry plays a key role. In 1999 its share in the production sector was 50%. At present time 400 fields have been developed and 200 fields are being utilized allowing 45 types of minerals and fossil fuel to be extracted. For example in Tajikistan 18 oil and gas fields have been explored and developed and 15-20 thousand tons of coal is produced annually. Food industry, light industry including cotton ginning; textiles, silk, production of construction materi-als, and construction are also important.

Transport is an integral part of the economy and due to complicated mountain relief its role is very important. In Tajikistan the length of railways is 533 km, automobile roads – 136 thousand km and airways – 53.2 thousand km. Each year, in some regions, precipitation triggers snow avalanches and mudflows. As a result roads are blocked and the population suffers losses. Weather forecasts provided to various airports ensure safety of flights. Various weather conditions affect aircraft flights, in particular strong wind, low clouds, fog, thunderstorm, and heavy precipitation. To provide forecasts to aviation reliable upper air data are needed. In this field the role of radars and radio sounders is vital.

5 Review of trade policy of Tajikistan in 2007. CIS Executive Committee. http://cis.minsk.by/main.aspx?uid=104066 Pastorova E. Energy sector of Tajikistan: the country can gain the lead in the Central Asia in electric power production and export// Internet publication Tazar. 2006. 7 June /http://www.analitika.org/article.php?story=200606040118442468 Electric power sector of Tajikistan. http://www.energo info.ru/content/view/3623/108/


28

Box 1.4. Future developments of small hydro-power plants in Tajikistan.

According to the Ministry of Energy of Tajikistan the potential of small and medium size rivers with the construction of small HPPs will amount to over 30 million kW with the annual output of about 100 billion kWh. In 2005 the Ministry of Energy developed a nation wide program for the construction of small power plants. Under this program it is planned to put into operation 13 HPPs before 2010, additional 23 – in the period of 2011-2015 and 25 before 2025. Overall it is therefore expected that within 20 years 61 HPPs with the total capacity 77653 kW will be put into operation. The cost of the first portion of HPPs to be put into opera-tion in 2007-2010 is estimated at USD 11.2 million. They are expected to be funded through the loans of the Islamic Development Bank, Asian Development Bank and by the “Barki Tajik” company. A package of legislative and regulatory documents has been adopted and put into force in Tajikistan regulating, stimulating and establishing preferential conditions for construction and operation of small HPPs. In recent years 8 HPPs were built ranging from 250 to 630 kW. In the same period in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAR) 12 HPPs ranging from 30 to 100 kW were built financed by investments of the Aga-Khan fund.The ultimate goal is to build eight more small HPPs to reliably supply electric power to hard to access rural areas of the country. Source: Ministry of Energy of Tajikistan

Before 1998 Tajikhydromet provided meteorological services to the Civil Aviation of Tajikistan free of cost. Since 1998 the Tajik Aeronautical Meteorological Centre has been under the full authority of the Tajik air company Tojikiston”, which has established its own meteorological service and operates as a provider of aeronautical meteorological services. Tajikhydromet provides services to the airports in the towns of Khujand (Sogd region) and Horog (2nd and 4th class Aeronautical Meteorology Stations for Civil Aviation).

In 1990, the water resources industry took 13.9 km3 of water for agricultural, household and industrial purposes, 72% of this volume – for regular irrigation. At present time 50% of population does not have an access to safe drinking water. Hydrological forecasts are valuable for such activities as water regulation in rivers and planning of irrigation. This is another sector that depends on quality forecasts of precipitation to a considerable extent. With this in view hydrological forecasting should be improved to en-able regulation of river discharge when flood-risk situations are expected.

Unforeseen weather conditions can have a big impact on tourism. Increased temperature in summer can trigger glacial mudflows in highland regions. In spring heavy precipitation accompanied by thunderstorms, hail, squall wind of 20-30 ms -1 and mudflow-induced floods can occur. In winter there is a risk avalanching in highland areas.

1.3.2. ASSESSMENT WEATHER-DEPENDENCE

In this study, the weather-dependence of the country’s economy is characterized by the total share of weather-dependent sec-tors in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As was shown above all sectors of the economy are exposed to EHHs and HHs, either directly or indirectly. However, the degree of impact differs depending on type of activities and technological processes of each specific sector, as well as on what tools and technologies are used to incorporate hydrometeorological forecasts and services into management decision and protection measures.

Sector of the economy 2006 2007 Average

Agriculture 21.4 19.4 20.4Forestry 0.01 0.04 0.025Industry (including fuel and energy and water industry) 21.3 18.3 19.8Construction 6.1 8.1 7.1Transport and communication 7.2 9.5 8.4Housing and public utilities. 5.9 5.4 5.7Total 61.9 60.8 61.4

Source: information was provided to Tajikhydromet by the Statistic Committee of Tajikistan

Table 1.6 Share of main weather-dependent sectors in GDP (in national currency, % of GDP)


29

Country Share of weather-dependent sectors,

% of GDPShare of agriculture, % of GDP

Azerbaijan 51 12Armenia 69 30Belarus 41.5 9.7Georgia 62 25Kazakhstan 42.7 7.0Ukraine 48.8 10.8Kyrgyzstan 51.1 35.04Turkmenistan 42.5 18.1Tajikistan 61.4 20.4

Source: based on data of country studies and national statistics

Table 1.7 Tajikistan economy weather-dependence compared with those of other

countries where similar studies were performed (average annual GDP is given in

pieces of 2000).

A list of weather-dependent sectors was determined by the experts from Tajikhydromet on the basis of official statistical infor-mation provided by the Statistics Committee. The list includes agriculture and forestry, production sector including fuel and energy, transport and communication, construction, housing and public utilities – see Table 1.6.

The average share of the main weather-dependent sectors of the Tajik economy is 61.4% of GDP, which can be used to esti-mate a lower bound on the economic efficacy of Tajikhydromet operations.

Agriculture (20.4% of GDP – an average value for 2006-2007) is exposed to weather conditions most of all, and to a consid-erable extent determines the level of overall losses suffered by the economy. Agriculture ranks first in terms of weather-dependence due to its specific features, i.e. permanent exposure to weather, the seasonal character of operations, vast territories and lack of efficient protection measures.

In general weather-dependence of the economy of Tajikistan is described as “relatively high”. The weather-dependence category of Tajikistan is comparable with those of Georgia and Armenia, where agriculture is the main contributor to weather-dependence and accounts for 25 and 30% of GDP, respectively (Table 1.7).


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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OF TAJIK

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

2.1. LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS, STAFFING

2.1.1. BRIEF HISTORY OF TAJIK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

The first meteorological stations and sites appeared in Tajikistan in the second half of the XIX century. The first of them, Khu-jand, was opened in 1866. By the beginning of the ХХ century Tajikistan had 6 meteorological stations and 2 water level gauges. Hydrometeorological observations expanded in 1926 with the establishment of the Tajikistan Committee for Hydrometeorology.

Active construction of hydrometeorological stations and monitoring sites took place in the 1930s when vast areas were de-veloped for cotton production, construction of highways, canals, plants and cities. Stations were established on the Fedchenko Glacier at 4168 meters above mean sea level, in Aivaj and Lol, at the Sarez Lake in the center of Pamir (Ircht), at the Anzob Pass. Development of water resources increased the need in hydrological forecasts. Hydrological observations on rivers and snow sur-veys in mountain areas were initiated that gradually encompassed the whole country (Table 2.1).

In support of air operations an observational network was established consisting of 10 aeronautical meteorological stations of 2-4 classes and an aeronautical meteorological center (AMC). In addition, 18 meteorological stations provided hourly informa-tion on current weather conditions to the Tajikistan AMC.

Development of agriculture promoted studies of agricultural climatic conditions in areas of irrigated and dry land farming.In the early 1960s, special-purpose mudflow and avalanche observations were started at three stations located in the area

most vulnerable to such events. And in the mid-1960s radio sounding was initiated at stations in Dushanbe, Khorog, and Takhta-myshbek.

The first observations of the natural environment were initiated in Tajikistan in 1938-40. These included measurements of the chemical composition of river water at 14 water bodies, the resultant data characterizing the condition of natural water bodies in the Republic.

Systematic studies of the atmospheric air, water and soil date back to 1963 when Tajikhydromet was requested to perform environmental monitoring functions. Since then the level of air pollution has been monitored, and air content of noxious substances (particulates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) has been measured on a daily basis. The range of components measured in river water was expanded. Mandatory measurements of suspended matter, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, carbon dioxide, nutrients, and mineral content were supplemented by measurements of pollutants (petroleum products, chromium, copper, etc.).

The decade from 1970 to 1980 was the best for the national Hydrometeorological Service. Weather forecasters started to receive satellite images of cloud amount, which enabled them to improve the accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts; sta-tions were actively equipped with modern technical facilities allowing receipt of more reliable and accurate data. The availability of instruments such as ceilometers and wind indicators amounted to about 90-95%. Various monitors and recorders of hydrome-teorological parameters were installed at the majority of stations. The transition to mechanized processing and generalization of observational data reduced calculation and interpretation errors.

The development and rationalization of the observational network enabled research and development resulting in the prepara-tion of climatic handbooks on major meteorological elements and weather events. These materials formed the basis for numerous papers dealing with individual meteorological components, as well as monographs summarizing climate conditions in Tajikistan and Central Asia in general. In this respect, noteworthy is the Handbook on Climate of Tajikistan (1966, 5 parts).

Climatologists and agricultural meteorologists jointly issued a reference book Agroclimatic Resources of Tajikistan. Climatolo-gists were involved in the preparation of the monograph Particularly Dangerous Hydrometeorological Events in the Central Asia. Climatic descriptions of Dushanbe City, regional and some district centers were made. The largest recent works on climatology

Period 1924 1925- 1934

1935- 1944

1945- 1954

1955- 1964

1965- 1974

1975- 1984

1985- 1994

1995- 2001

2002- 2007

Hydrometeorological Stations 6 35 39 53 62 67 73 58 53 57

Hydrological Observation Sites 2 46 46 72 96 100 138 138 97 96*

* around 15% of hydrological observation sites are temporarily closed

Source: Tajikhydromet data

Table 2.1 Changes in the number of hydrometeorological stations and hydrological observation sites


31

include: a scientific and applied reference book presenting data on solar radiation conditions, air temperature, soil, precipitation and other meteorological elements; a handbook on construction climatology and papers studying man induced climate change.

During the last 15 years, the organization of the NMHS has changed as follows:

1992-2004: Main Department of Hydrometeorology and Nature Monitoring (GlavTajikhydromet ) under the RT Ministry of Nature Protection

2004-2006: State Agency for Hydrometeorology of the State Committee for Environmental Protection and Forestry

Since 2007: Agency for Hydrometeorology is part of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental ProtectionSince 2008: State Agency (Enterprise) for Hydrometeorology of the Committee for Environmental Protection

under the RT Government

2.1.2. NMHS ACTIVITIES

As a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Republic of Tajikistan (RT), through its NMHS, provides the international meteorological community access to the data of the Tajik national observational network, and receives informa-tion from other countries’ NMHS. These activities are regulated by Resolutions 25 and 40 of the World Meteorological Congress. Activities of the NMHS are regulated by the laws and resolutions of the Republic of Tajikistan, namely:

• The Law of the Republic of Tajikistan on Hydrometeorological Activity, dated December 2, 2002, # 86 • Resolution of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, dated February 3, 2000, # 49 On Approving the List of Facilities not Subject to Divesture and Concession, and Those Subject to Concessions by Decision of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan,• Resolution of the RT Government, dated October 1, 2002, # 377 On Approving the Agreement on Intergovernmental Hydrometeorological Network of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS HMN),• Resolution of the RT Government dated October 1, 2004, # 394 On Approving the Concept of Hydrometeorological Security of CIS Countries.The RT Law on Hydrometeorological Activities defines major areas of public regulation in hydrometeorology:

o Establish and ensure functioning of the public observational network;o Provide data on the actual and forecasted condition of the natural environment, including urgent information, to RT public authorities, Military Forces and population;o Establish requirements to information products;o Define the list of hydrometeorological activities having national importance, and make arrangements for and ensure their implementation;o Establish public hydrometeorological information resources, develop and maintain a single public fund of environmental data;o Arrange for and implement active modification of meteorological and other geophysical processes, as well as ensure public supervision of these works throughout the RT territory;o Ensure protection of the public observational network;o Provide for participation of the Republic of Tajikistan in international cooperation in hydrometeorology;o Implement licensing of hydrometeorological activities.

The Law defines NMHS activities in meteorology, hydrology and environmental pollution monitoring. The work program In accordance with Regulations on the Agency for Hydrometeorology, the main functions of the Hydrometeorological Service are to:

• Implement continuous observations of the climate system and environmental conditions;• Provide public authorities, sectors of economy and population with data on the actual and forecasted environmental con-ditions, current and special-purpose (including urgent) hydrometeorological information.• Identify major areas, types and scope of activities in hydrology, meteorology, agricultural meteorology, aerology, acti-nometry, glaciology, and environmental monitoring. The hydrometeorological observational network in 2008 included 57 hydrometeorological stations and 126 hydrological,

meteorological, aviation, avalanche and agrometeorological observation sites and environmental monitoring facilities. Of these, 8 are benchmark stations, i.e., those intended for homogeneous continuous observations providing data to reveal secular climate change trends; 18 stations and 10 hydrological observation sites are part of the international exchange system.

The NMHS provides short-, medium- and long-term weather forecasts, hydrological forecasts including those of the begin-ning and extent of flooding, formation of rainfall floods and mud flow development, as well as marine and agrometeorological forecasts.

Daily, 5 day and once a month 30 day forecasts are made for public authorities and administrations, all information products being disseminated in hard copies. In addition, storm warnings about hazardous hydrometeorological events are communicated on a real time basis.


32

The regulatory and methodological framework for the operation of NMHS structural subdivisions is provided by manuals and guidelines on the organization and implementation of meteorological, hydrological, glaciological and agrometeorological observations, data transmission and processing, production of various advance time forecasts and warnings about extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events. NMHS departments continue to use manuals and guidelines that were in force at the USSR Hydrometeorological Service before 1992. Since then the NMHS has performed no scientific and methodological research on how to improve the existing manuals and guidelines and adjust them to modern conditions. In 2007 the NMHS received from the Russian Hydrometeorological Service (Roshydromet) a set of Guidelines currently in effect in Russia, and is presently introduc-ing them in its routine operations.

Annual reports on NMHS activities are prepared (in Tajik) and disseminated among the public authorities and administrations. According to the NMHS, public authorities and administration, as well as industrial sector agencies generally estimate the perfor-mance of the NMHS and its offices as satisfactory. This satisfactory assessment should be qualified by noting that sectoral experts are well aware of the NMHSs constraints and therefore assess its performance based on their understanding what is achievable in current circumstances. Another factor is lack of knowledge of modern hydrometeorological products by sectoral experts.

Since the establishment of the Tajikistan Agency for Hydrometeorology as an independent NMHS, and up until the present time, the world hydrometeorological practice has developed new methods of data collection, processing and analysis, and ad-vanced weather forecasting techniques; the amount and range of information products (analyses and forecasts) have increased; and new methodologies for providing the users with hydrometeorological information have appeared. The regulatory and meth-odological framework of routine operations of the Tajik NMHS has become obsolete and fails to meet modern requirements, especially with respect to observational and forecasting facilities.

The main challenge currently facing the national service is to provide users with reliable hydrometeorological data and fore-casts of river flow and floods. Tajikhydromet should also assist users in making informed decisions on water management at the national and regional levels, which should ultimately have a positive effect on the national economy and welfare. Unfortunately, the quality of services provided to national and regional users remains low.

The quality and quantity of measurement data that the NMHS provides to the users, as part of their international and regional obligations, continues to deteriorate, which is related to the shortage of funds allocated to replace physical facilities and finance operational costs, and has resulted in the degradation of observational networks and the absence of national and regional level system of staff training/retraining and professional upgrading.

Figure 2.1 Institutional Structure of State Administration for Hydrometeorology (from Tajikhydromet)


33

2.1.3 INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE

The institutional structure of the NMHS is based on functional and territorial administrative principles, and includes units and subdivisions at the NMHS Headquarters, and structural units – hydrometeorological centers (HMC) in viloyats (regions).

HEADQUARTERS

The structure of the Agency for Hydrometeorology is shown in Fig. 2.1

REGIONAL CENTERS

The NMHS structure includes two regional Hydrometeorological Centers (HMC) at Khatlon and Sogd, and a Hydrometeoro-logical Observatory (HMO) in Khorog.

Figure 2.2 Institutional Structure of Khorog Hydrometeorological Observatory (HMO)

Figure 2.3 Institutional Structure of Sogd Hydrometeorological Center (HMC)

Figure 2.4 Institutional Structure of Khatlon Hydrometeorological Center (HMC)

Organizational structure of the HMC in Khatlon:


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According to Regulations, the HMC functions are to: supervise the operation of subdivisions and provide them with instruments, equipment and expendables; collect and transfer data to the Communication Center (Dushanbe); provide services to users, first and foremost, public authorities and local administrations; execute and manage contracts with users; provide training to local staff. The HMCs are actually departments of the Agency for Hydrometeorology responsible for providing hydrometeorological services within respective regions.

However, in practice the HMCs fail to implement their functions. Data collection from stations and observation sites is per-formed by the NMHS Headquarters in Dushanbe. HMCs perform no verification of data completeness and quality; do not moni-tor the condition of measurement instruments, meteorological sites and other facilities; are unaware of the plans for equipment of stations and observation sites, execution of rehabilitation works, and take no part in the development of such plans. The level of technical equipment of HMC (communications, computerization, office supplies) is extremely low, and does not allow receipt of the required amount of information products from the NMHS Headquarters to be able to judge on the NMHS requirements. HMCs have almost no facilities to allow communication with observation sites. Almost no work is carried out to provide hydrometeorologi-cal services to the users (local authorities and administrations, industries and communities). The HMC staff has no qualification to receive information products and develop/prepare materials for the users. HMCs do not finance operational activities to provide observation sites with instruments, equipment and expendables, allocations from the Headquarters being almost non existent.

Therefore, the institutional, technical and staff capacity of HMC does not allow them to properly implement their management functions, support the operation of stations and observation sites, and develop cooperation with the users of NMHS products. HMCs are the weakest link in the system of interaction with the users of NMHS products.

If the current situation persists, the NMHS will be unable to fully utilize the capacity that could be/is being established through investments in the National Service under assistance programs.

2.1.4. NMHS BUDGET

Ensuring sufficient current funding to finance adequate functioning of the NMHS presents a challenge. The total budget of the Agency for Hydrometeorology does not allow technical upgrading of the observational network in compliance with international standards and requirements. The dynamics of NMHS funding during 2002-2005 is shown in Table 2.2.

Expenditure categories 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Actual proceeds from all budget sources (current TJS thousands)

729 771 999 1286 1462 2214

Actual proceeds from all budget sources, in % 100 100 100 100 100 100

Including expenditure items (in % of total)

Salary 37 39 37 44 51 56Social charges and insurance 10 11 10 12 13 14

Other state insurances payments 2 2 2 3 0 0

Stationary 2 2 2 1 1 1

Household expenditures and equipment 2 2 1 2 2 2

Travel expenditure 3 3 2 2 2 2

Working clothes and soft equipment 0 0 0 0 0 0Rations 12 12 10 9 8 5Fuel and lubricants 3 3 2 2 2 2

Rent 0 1 1 1 1 0Medical supplies 0 0 1 0 0 0

Funds for contracting specialists 0 0 0 0 0 0

Personnel training and retraining 0 1 1 0 0 0

Representative expenditure 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other goods and services 0 0 10 8 7 5

Electricity supply charges 5 1 1 1 1 1

Heating 0 3 2 2 2 2

Table 2.2 Dynamics and breakdown of budget financing of Tajikhydromet, excluding the environmental moni-

toring branches


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The data in Table 2.2 shows that during 2002-2007 the largest expense item was salary and social charges which amounted to 70% of the total budget in 2007. Capital investments are not budgeted at all, and replacement of capital asset, including pro-curement of measuring devices, repair, and equipment, was on average, less than 10 %.

Fees for meteorological and climate services provided under commercial contracts covers an insignificant part of expenditures (<1%).

2.1.5. STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS

The total number of staff including vacancies at the National Meteorological Service is 952 persons, of whom 712 people are operational staff. The staffing level equals 74%. The staffing position in respect to engineers (hydrometeorology) makes up 37%, meteorological technicians – 64%, chemical engineers – 48%, communication engineers – 81%. The average age of NMHS staff members is 35-45 years old. 50-55% of staff members have professional education.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Staff numbers – total 617 618 624 634 638 635 629 712Average age of NMHS staff members, years old 45-55 45-55 45-50 45-50 40-45 40-45 35-45 35-45Number of staff members with higher education 101 98 90 89 91 100 96 110Average age of NMHS staff members with igher

education, years old

25-35 25-35 30-35 30-35 30-35 30-40 35-40 35-40

Management personnel, number of persons 19 19 19 18 18 18 20 20Average age of management personnel, years old 35-45 35-45 40-45 40-45 40-45 40-45- 40-45 40-45

Table 2.4. Tajikhidromet staff statistics

Scavenging 0 0 0 0 0 0

Water supply charges 0 0 0 0 0 0

Maintenance and repair of buildings and constructions 5 5 4 3 3 2

Maintenance of vehicles 2 2 1 1 1 1

Communications 3 4 3 3 3 2

Communication installation 0 0 0 0 0 0

Postal services 0 0 0 0 0 0

Replacement (procurement) of equipment and instruments 2 3 4 4 3 3

Replacement (procurement) of vehicles 12 6 3 2 0 0

Source: Tajikhydromet data

Noteworthy is the low level of NMHS staffing with engineering experience, the existence of vacancies that are difficult to fill for lack of human resources and the scarce number of university graduates specializing in hydrometeorology, information technolo-gies and telecommunications. The reasons include low salaries (as compared to other public institutions) and lack of incentive and retention schemes for NMHS staff.

At the same time, given the rather insignificant HMC role in providing hydrometeorological services, the authorized staff size of regional centers is excessive, and the institutional structure fails to comply with the existing situation and longer term plans of NMHS modernization.

In order to achieve the major modernization objectives related to improved coordination and cooperation between the NMHS and users of hydrometeorological data and information products, and to maintain the NMHS capacity in terms of institutional, staffing and financial sustainability, special attention should be given to strengthening the institutional and technical capacity of the HMC.

2.1.6. TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADING PROGRAM

At present, one person is being trained at the Saint Petersburg Hydrometeorological University. The NMHS faces a shortage of specialists in weather forecasting, hydrology, agrometeorology, and actinometry. Staffing the observational network is particular concern. Station personnel often have no special education; for many years, no workshops and professional upgrading courses


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have been organized for station managers. There are considerable difficulties in training of medium level specialists, especially, agrometeorologists, meteorologists, and hydrologists.

Gradual ageing and retirement of major professional staff with no influx of young specialists results in overburdening of the existing personnel, which (in view of low salaries) increases attrition rates and has a negative impact on the quality of hydrome-teorological products.

2.1.7. BUILDINGS AND FACILITIES

Most of office and residential buildings of the network require capital repair. Tajikistan NMHS does not have sufficient funds for construction and rehabilitation of stations and observational sites (see Fig. 2.5). The current condition of the network fails to meet modern requirements thus impeding efficient participation of the Service in the Global Observationing Network. At present, 30 hydrometeorological stations (or 53% of total number of stations) and 48 hydrological observational sites (or 50%) require capital rehabilitation, 15 hydrological gauges require current repair; reconstruction is needed for 7 stations, 16 observational sites and 19 pollution monitoring sites (PMS).

A Rehabilitation/Restoration Unit consisting of 6 people is responsible for rehabilitation of buildings and facilities in the NMHS. Once the design documents are prepared, rehabilitation works are executed. The 2006-2008 budget provided for expenditures equal to 200-300 thousand somoni for rehabilitation/reconstruction works to be implemented mainly at priority stations and observation sites included in the upgrading program under the Swiss Hydrometeorological Service Support Project. The 2008 program included 23 items with the amount of financing equal to 340 thousand somoni. Slow progress is noted in the construction of the new NMHS building in Dushanbe: only 3 floors had been built by mid-2008, construction completion dates are not speci-fied, and all documents are kept at the Ministry who finances the construction.

Figure 2.5 Hydrological and meteorological stations buildings and facilities

Source: Technical missions pictures

2.1.8. CONTACTS WITH MASS MEDIA AND COMMUNITIES

The NMHS maintains a website in two languages (English and Russian).Weather forecasts for the current day and subsequent 5 days are reported daily to national papers, radio and TV in the form of

a printed newsletter. The Head of NMHS regularly appears on TV during the periods of anomalous weather events, but no active cooperation with the media is maintained.

WMO experience and recommendations encourage the NMHS to maintain active cooperation with mass media as an im-portant component of NMHS activities to raise awareness of public institutions, private companies and general public about the NMHS, its offices, capacity to provide information on current and forecasted environmental conditions. However, the lack of technologies to visualize meteorological information and prepare it for broadcasting on TV significantly limits the work in this area.


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2.1.9. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION

The Republic of Tajikistan is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and by Government decision the Agency Director has been appointed Permanent Representative of Tajikistan with the WMO. The Agency actively participates in all WMO programs, and closely cooperates with the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), UN Development Program (UNDP), UN Environmental Program (UNEP), and International Aral Sea Rehabilitation Fund (IASRF). The government ratified the Kyoto protocol on October 21st 2008.

International cooperation of the Tajikistan Hydrometeorological Service is aimed at:• Exchanging scientific and technological information; and• Implementing joint works to improve hydrometeorological services provided to various sectors of economy and local com-munities.Activities are implemented on multi-lateral and bilateral basis, under intergovernmental and interagency agreements with na-

tional agencies and hydrometeorological services of foreign countries and CIS. The agreements stipulate joint studies of global and regional climate-related issues; provision of operational technologies of hydrometeorological data processing; use of meteorolog-ical satellite data; more efficient exchange of data, information and products. Special emphasis in international relations is placed on cooperation with CIS Hydrometeorological Services, which is primarily aimed at preserving the long-developed common spatial and technological system of collection, processing and exchange of hydrometeorological and other information. The list of RT stations and observation sites included in the International and Intergovernmental Hydrometeorological Networks (IHMN) is shown in Annex 7 of the Report of the Findings of the Technical Mission, June 22-28, 2008 (Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008).

The Tajikistan Agency for Hydrometeorology and Uzhydromet annually sign an agreement concerning the Program of Coop-eration in the area of operational information. According to this agreement, the parties undertake to timely transmit hydrometeoro-logical, weather and forecasted information, warnings about natural disasters and sudden changes of weather conditions.

The Agency participates in the CIS Interagency Hydrometeorological Council and its 6 working groups, development of joint policy of CIS countries in various areas of hydrometeorology.

Under the UN Climate Change Framework Convention Tajikistan implemented a study of man-induced climate change, and submitted a national report.

2.1.10. COMPLETED PROJECTS

Under the Central Asian Natural Resource Management Project (NRMP/USAID), through WMO six personal computers were provided to the Agency; seven automatic meteorological stations manufactured by Campbell Scientific were installed at stations in Dushanbe, Anzob Pass, Shakhristan Pass, Dangara, Kalai-Labiob, Navabad and Fedchenko Glacier, and four diesel power generators were provided.

In 2004-2005, four Message Switching Centers (MSC) were established in Dushanbe, Kurgan Tyube, Kairakkum and Khorog to allow collection, processing and exchange of hydrometeorological information between Regional and World WMO Data Cen-ters in Tashkent and Moscow. However, HMC do not use these devices due to the lack of relevant specialists and communication links.

In 1995, Switzerland initiated technical assistance projects in Central Asian countries with a view to improve hydrometeoro-logical capacity of the regions in the framework of WMO. In 2001-2006, with financial support from Switzerland, the Regional Hydrological Center (RHC) Project was initiated in Central Asian countries that included:

• Establishing an office in Dushanbe• Installing a full set of computer equipment for the purposes of water flow forecasting, data processing, office administration and web-based operations• Installing a generator for independent power supply of the office• Reconstruction of 9 meteorological and 2 hydrological stations in the Pyanj River basin• Restoring real-time data transmission system at hydrological stations in Dagana, Khusheri (Varzob) and Tavildara (Vakhsh)• Delivery of equipment to other HMS• Delivery of computer equipment and software for data processing (HydroPro and Ge-1)• Publication of hydrological observations and forecasted data• Installation of software for image processing and snowmelt runoff model (ERDAS)• Runoff forecasts (short-term and long-term) for the Vakhsh and Pyanj Rivers• Training in data and image processing, runoff forecasting and communicationsThe Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation project’ was implemented by the World Bank in partnership with the Aga Khan Development

Network, Government of Switzerland (2000-2006). Its objective was to improve the existing monitoring system of the lake and establish a community based early warning system in case of a disaster associated with an outburst of flood from the lake. The monitoring and warning systems to assess the status of the lake and its dynamic behavior were installed in 2004 under Component


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A2 “The monitoring and early warning systems” (USD1.5million). These systems comprise of: (i) Monitoring Units, with their own independent power supplies, the measurement devices and the raw data preparation for transmission; and (ii) the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) with data collection, preparation, calculation, storage, presentation and with com-mand generation and coordination tasks between the Usoi Dam house and Dushanbe. However institutional strengthening is still a challenge as adequate capacity in computers, GPS, GIS systems is crucial for the correct operation maintenance of the systems as well as for complex data analysis. The Tajikhydromet was involved in the project among other government partners in an advisory role on issues of meteorology and hydrology.

2.1.11. ONGOING PROJECTS AND ANALYSIS OF PROJECT OUTCOMES

Since August 1, 2006 the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) has been implementing the Swiss Support to Hydrometeorological Services in the Aral Sea Basin Project. The proposed project life is 3 years. The project is designed to as-sist regional NMHS by providing them with technical support, modernized communication equipment, measurement instruments, software packages and communication facilities.

With a view to execute the decision of the Heads of Central Asian States of April 9, 1999 (Ashgabat), the GEF Agency for Component D Monitoring of Transboundary Waters of the International Aral Sea Rehabilitation Fund (IASRF) implemented the Water and Environmental Management Project in the Republic of Tajikistan. Outcomes of the first stage of the Swiss Support to Hydrometeorological Services in the Aral Sea Basin Project are presented in Annex 4 of the Report of the Findings of the Technical Mission, June 22-28, 2008 (Dushanbe, Tajikistan). Plans for re equipment of priority meteorological stations and hydrological sites, and the list of equipment to be delivered are specified in Annex 5 of the Report of the Findings of the Technical Mission, June 22-28, 2008 (Dushanbe, Tajikistan).

The following conclusions can be made based on the results of international assistance projects:• As part of project implementation, production of information products (hydrometeorological data, short-term runoff fore-casts, hydrological yearbooks) was ensured based on technologies, analytical methods and hardware/software introduced with Swiss support. Though the initial cost of the license, as well as the annual license were financed under the project, soft-ware systems HydroPro and SRM installed under the project and introduced in the SASM/RHC network were not officially adopted by the NMHS. Almost all specialists involved in the project are NMHS staff members. Their salaries at the NMHS are almost twice as low as the remuneration paid by international organizations. • Automated hydrological gauges installed under Swiss-assisted projects were dismantled due to the lack of personnel capable to operate them, and funds to pay the services of satellite and cellular communication operators providing measure-ment data transmission. The web based system of communication with automated gauges operated outside the NMHS com-munication network. In view of the above, the second stage of the project envisages delivery of standard though obsolete equipment that is well known to the staff of the observational units. • Automated meteorological stations introduced at the observational network are out of use due to the lack of personnel capable to operate them. No sensor verification and calibration is performed. • Given inadequate qualification of personnel involved in the operation of automatic hydrological and meteorological stations, and data processing software systems, the number of trained NMHS staff and the scope of training are obviously insufficient to support the NMHS capacity.• Spare parts procurement and delivery procedures are highly complicated and costly; adequate training of personnel in equipment operation and repair is almost impossible due to their low qualification; communication via satellites is very expensive and might be terminated by the end of the project. • Users believe that minimum restoration of the observation network for runoff forecasting in Tajikistan will help exclude the main reasons for user dissatisfaction with the quality of provided hydrological information. Therefore, steps should be made in the future to maintain investments and consolidate project achievements; to this end, more emphasis should be placed on institutional and financial sustainability of the results achieved under assistance projects.• More attention should be given to the cooperation between NMHS as producers/providers of hydrometeorological data and forecasts, on the one hand, and major users of such information for water management purposes, on the other hand.

2.1.12. COORDINATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES WORKING IN THE FIELD

OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY

In addition to the Agency for Hydrometeorology, observations of the state of individual environmental elements are imple-mented by other government agencies: special inspections of the Committee for Environmental Protection and Forestry, agencies of the Committee of Emergency Situations, Academy of Sciences, Ministry of Agriculture, and Ministry of Energy; however, there is weak coordination between these agencies.


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Nothing is known about hydrometeorological activities of private entities. The private sector is not involved in the forecasting of current hydrometeorological conditions in Tajikistan. According to the RT Law on Hydrometeorological Activities, nongovernmen-tal, private organizations and companies have the right to implement hydrometeorological activities provided that they obtain a license from the Agency for Hydrometeorology.

2.2. OBSERVATION NETWORK, INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES

2.2.1. NMHS OBSERVATION SYSTEM

The hydrometeorological observation network was developed in Tajikistan to meet the needs of the national economy in hy-drometeorological information for planning purposes, as well as to make informed decisions on reducing the risk of and damage from adverse weather events.

The network comprises 57 hydrometeorological stations of the 1, 2 and 3 class. Station classes are established based on the amount of performed observations and operations. The network includes: 2 Hydrometeorological Centers, 1 Hydrometeorologi-cal Observatory, 35 meteorological stations, 5 hydrological, 1 aerological, 9 aviation, 4 special-purpose stations, and 126 hy-drological, meteorological, aviation, avalanche and agrometeorological observation sites and environmental monitoring facilities. Of them, there are 8 benchmark stations, i.e., those intended for homogeneous continuous observations providing data to reveal secular climate change trends; 14 stations and 10 hydrological observation sites are part of the international exchange system.

NMHS Headquarters office is responsible for station management and collection of data from the observational network.The current condition of the network fails to meet modern requirements thus impeding efficient participation in the Global

Observing Network. During 1991-2005, the observational network was reduced by 20%. At present, 38 hydrometeorological stations and 30 hydrological gauges require capital rehabilitation; reconstruction is needed for 6 stations, 10 gauges and 18 air pollution monitoring sites (PMS).

SURFACE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS

The public observational network is an integrated measurement/information system intended for systematic observations and monitoring of environmental conditions, as well as provision of public authorities, economic sectors and local communities with information on the current and forecasted environmental conditions.

The framework of the surface subsystem providing data on the environment and climate conditions consists of network facilities of the Agency for Hydrometeorology:

• Meteorological stations, • Aerological stations, • Meteorological observation sites, • Hydrological gauges, • Agrometeorological observation sites,• Snow avalanche stations.Meteorological stations perform a set of meteorological observations, as well as primary processing of measurements to

produce operational information submitted to forecasting units and serviced primary information offices for the bank of reference, fundamental and applied climatic reference books.

Agrometeorological observations are performed for major agricultural crops grown in the Republic. The results of comple-mentary agrometeorological observations are used to assess the impact of weather conditions on the development and condition of crops, pastures, pests and diseases, as well as on farming operations, ranging, etc. Processed agrometeorological observations are used to produce various agrometeorological reviews and forecasts provided to agricultural management authorities.

Studies of hydrological regime of water bodies and public accounting of water amount and quality are performed to meet the current and long-term user-needs for routine and forecasted information.

There are 2 operational avalanche and 1 mudflow stations that monitor hydrometeorological conditions to provide timely warnings and protect the territory in case of mudflow- and avalanche-related emergencies.

The observational network and scope of its activities were reduced due to the lack of funding. There is a critical lack of com-munication facilities, and essential equipment and instruments: standard thermometers, hygrometers, chemical agents, hydrometric current meters and winches, thermometer shelters, etc. The operated equipment and instruments are obsolete and have exhausted their service life, depreciation of many devices currently exceeding 80%.

Due to the lack of instruments, some stations have had to terminate observations of extreme air and soil temperatures, deep soil temperature; reduce the scope of instrumental observations of cloud altitude, visibility and high intensity precipitation. The number of sites carrying out environmental monitoring, hydrological and agrometeorological measurements was also reduced.


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Standard program of meteorological observations includes: • Measurements of atmospheric pressure, wind parameters, air temperature and humidity, atmospheric precipitation; temperature and state of the underlying surface, meteorological optical range; observations of snow cover, atmospheric phenomena, glaze-ice and rime deposition, and clouds;• Soil temperature measurements at the depths of 0.20, 0.40, 0.80, 1.20, 1.60, 2.40 and 3.20 m below the natural cover. Soil temperatures at the depths of 0.05, 0.10, 0.15 and 0.20 m are measured in vegetation free areas;• Registration of air temperature and humidity variations by automatic recorders (thermograph, hygrograph);• Registration of sunshine by a heliograph;• Registration of rain intensity.Out of 5 actinometric sites, observations are carried out at 2 stations (Gissar and Kairakkum water reservoir). The lack of

systematic instrument calibration (previously performed in Crimea and Uzbekistan) reduces the accuracy of actinometric measure-ments.

The list of observational sites (meteorological, agrometeorological, avalanche and hydrological ones) is given in Annex 6 of the Report of the Findings of the Technical Mission (Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev,2008).

Before the 1990s, hydrological observations were carried out at 11 stations and 138 gauges; at present, observations are carried out at 5 stations and 96 gauges, 15 of which are closed for the time being. The number of hydrological gauges measuring water flow equals 42; data is submitted by 18 gauges (see Figure 2.7).

Routine snow surveys were performed in 18 river basins at 61 snow gauges; at present these operations are carried out in 10 basins. In 2005, glacier tongue surveys were performed at the Medvezhiy and RGO Glaciers in the upper reaches of the Vanch, Akbaital Glacier in eastern Pamir; dozens of new gauge rods were installed in the basins of the Obikhingou, Kyzylsu-South, Yakh-su Rivers. In summer 2006, surveys of the Fedchenko Glacier and three glaciers of the Gissar Ridge were performed. A computer data base of Tajikistan glaciers is being established.

Distant aerial observations were performed in 8 river basins; at present such operations are carried out in 3 basins (Kyzylsu South, Obikhingou and Yakhsu).

The network of agrometeorological observations has undergone considerable changes during the recent decade. In 1988, agrometeorological observations were carried out at 37 stations (2 of them being special-purpose ones) and 14 observation sites; however, by 2007 their number decreased to 20 stations and 8 sites. Operations are confined to the observations of crop

Another challenge is the lack to funds to finance operations costs (payments to service providers, cost of expendables fuel, rations, etc.).

Due to the lack/utmost deterioration of power supply facilities (petrol and diesel generators, accumulators, solar batteries and wind generators), energy-consuming measurements devices and communication facilities become inoperative in the winter season when permanent power supply is cut off for a long period (several months).

The network of surface meteorological observation sites is intended for identifying the state and development of physical pro-cesses in the atmosphere occurring at the interface with the underlying surface. Surface meteorological observations are carried out at 57 stations involved in the implementation of 8-term meteorological measurements, and 4 aviation meteorological observa-tion sites. The figure 2.6 below shows the location of stations within the RT territory.

Figure 2.6 Meteorological observation networks


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development phases, and agrometeorological surveys of small areas. Aerial visual and route surveys of pasture vegetation have not been performed for the past 17 years. Only 2 sites measure soil humidity. The reasons include the lack of permanent power supply (soil drying takes up at least 7 hours), thermostats, analytical scales, and sample bottles for soil.

Unless urgent additional measures are taken to ensure maintenance and technical upgrading of the observational network, the trend towards further degradation of the ground-based meteorological facilities will continue resulting in gradual reduction of the scope of operations (breakdown of instruments) and closedown of stations. This will have a negative impact on the analyses and forecasts of weather conditions in Tajikistan.

CONDITION OF OBSERVATIONAL INSTRUMENTS

The designed service life of meteorological and hydrological equipment ended in 1991; since then no technical upgrading has been performed. In average, availability of traditional equipment, devices and instruments as assessed by the Tajikhydromet experts is about 40% of the needs. Instruments and equipment have been in operation for 15-20 years though the service life of, e.g., cloud height measuring instruments, M-63 makes up 8-10 years, and that of integrators – up to 5 years.

Deterioration and ageing of capital assets is one of the most acute problems faced by the Agency. Deterioration of many instruments and devices currently exceeds 80%. The equipment is obsolete and has exhausted its technical resources. Provision with meteorological instruments makes up 41%, agrometeorological – 25%, aerological – 0%, actinometric – 60%, hydrological ones – 40%.

Modern automatic meteorological and hydrological measurement facilities are non-operational due to the lack of qualified personnel, and funds to finance the services of communication providers.

The NHMS has insufficient funds to maintain and develop the observational network. Some stations and sites were closed; others significantly reduced the scope and number of observations. Most stations are equipped with obsolete, aged instruments and devices. In the recent decade, no modern equipment has been installed to replace the old. Another critical challenge is related to the procurement of essential instruments and equipment for data collection, processing and dissemination. Manufacturers of hydrometeorological equipment are located outside Tajikistan.

The NHMS is largely behind other countries in terms of automation of observations. Preservation of observation sites in remote access areas is an important part of network automation. Automation of workplaces of specialists performing operational functions on data processing and generalization is also far from satisfactory.

Figure 2.7 Hydrological observation network

Figure 2.8 Meteorological equipment and instruments



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The lack information on meteorological conditions in the middle and upper atmosphere above Tajikistan considerably reduces weather forecasting opportunities, especially in respect of operational services provided to aviation. Unless 3-5 stations of tem-perature and wind atmospheric sounding are established, the accuracy of weather and natural disaster forecasts will remain at the same level.

REMOTE OBSERVATIONS

AEROLOGICAL STATIONS

Atmospheric radio sounding is of special importance for aviation. Data on temperature, wind and humidity at various altitudes would significantly facilitate forecasting of both standard meteorological parameters, and the occurrence of extreme events thus improving the information services provided to economic entities.

The number of sounding stations has drastically reduced. In the past, data were received from 4 stations (Khujand, Dushanbe, Khorog and Tokhtamyshbek), while at present, due to the lack of expendables and failure of obsolete radar devices, observations have been terminated at all stations.

TOTAL OZONE CONTENT MEASUREMENTS

No ozone content observations have been performed in recent years due to instrument failures, and the lack of special tables for measurement processing and operational staff.

SATELLITE INFORMATION

Special-purpose software for satellite data processing and visualization is available only as part of the software/hardware system for flow forecasting. Satellite and web based communication links are used to receive images from LARS and NOAA satel-lites from Uzbekistan, which undergo special processing (glacier numbering). The images are processed using a licensed software ERDAS Imagine 8.7 manufactured by Leica Geosystems. The software is used to identify snow ice cover and clouds on the earth surface. The processing procedure includes: import from the specialized satellite format L1B into IMG format, conversion of mea-surements to the metric system, calibration, classification, and obtaining quantitative parameters of the snow-ice cover from the image and classified map. The resultant information forms the basis for short-term flow forecasting of the Vakhsh and Pyanj Rivers. One specialist in satellite image processing has been trained.

In June 2008, a Chinese geostationary satellite ground station FengYunCast Geo system was installed at the Central Office of the Tajikhydromet. Local specialists failed to become familiar with the facility; at present, they are being trained in the operation of the system.

Satellite images from the European geostationary meteorological satellite METEOSAT are also received via a web-based link using the Windows XP software.

In addition, information is received from Moscow Hydrometeorological Center and Planeta Scientific Research Center. Soft-ware for data processing is available at the WWW-server developed by the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet.

Forecasters make incidental use of satellite information in their operational activities.

METEOROLOGICAL RADARS

Meteorological radars are used by the Department of Active Modification in their anti-hailing operations. NMHS has 4 MRL- 5 radars; of these, only one has been returned to service under a contract with the High-Mountain Geophysical Institute (Nalchik, RF). Development program of active modification activities provides for reconditioning the remaining 3 MRL-5 radars. It should be noted that radar information is used only for active modification purposes, and is unavailable for the assessment of current weather conditions and producing weather forecasts.

The 2008-2012 Program of Restoration and Equipment of Anti Hail Activities in the Republic of Tajikistan includes establishing an automated system of collection, analysis and storage of radar data on meteorological atmospheric events (thunderstorm and hail), which will allow the use of radar information in forecasting operations.

TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF METEOROLOGICAL EQUIPMENT

The Measurement Device Service (MDS) of Tajikhydromet provides calibration and standardization of measurement facilities, which include:


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• Periodic calibration – during the operation and storage of measurement devices, at regular intervals, during which their meteorological serviceability is guaranteed;• Inspection checks – in case a meteorological malfunction of operational measurement devices is detected, and as part of meteorological inspections of various agencies.The Tajikhydromet has calibration equipment for checking hydrometeorological equipment:• Calibration device for manual anemometers PO-37.• Test chamber BK-1.• Hydrostat PO-34.• Calibration device for psychrometers PO-30.• Calibration device for actinometric instruments PO-4.The Tajikhydromet has a Registration Certificate entitling it to perform periodic calibrations – 4 local (sectoral) systems for

checking actinometric, wind-, pressure- and temperature-measuring instruments. Rehabilitation and calibration were carried out for: textile and silk factories, airports, military bases, heating power plants and

other entities using hydrometeorological measurement devices – in compliance with the Registration Certificate giving the Agency the right to check and repair measurement devices used for hydrometeorological purposes (16 items).

Until 1992, the Agency, given the availability of a calibration hydrological flume, was able to perform calibration of hydro-logical current meters for educational and research institutions, irrigation systems and geological expeditions. At present, the cali-bration hydrological flume has exhausted its service life, and calibrations of hydrological current meters are no longer carried out.

Due to the lack of a rotating pool and qualified specialists at the MDS, the scope of agency based calibration of instruments and equipment owned by the Agency was reduced, which affects the quality of observations.

The network operates age-old instruments with expired calibration deadlines that cannot be replaced for the lack of funds. Unless urgent steps are taken to ensure calibration of hydrological instruments, the data obtained from the network cannot be considered reliable, which has a negative impact on all hydrological calculations and forecasts.

2.2.2. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN WEATHER FORECASTING

Forecaster’s workplace is not computerized. All forecasting and satellite information is received through the MSC (Message Switching Center) of the UNIMAS system via an Internet link from Moscow and Tashkent. Meteorological telegrams from the ob-servational network are received in hand written form through the Center for Automated Communication.

In their operational practice weather forecasters are using traditional forecasting methods based on the analysis of meteoro-logical maps, and also satellite images when available.

Observational data for neighboring countries come through the Moscow WMC. A Swiss Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) has been used in the hydrological practice since 2003 to produce short-term river

runoff forecasts. Storm runoff forecasts are made using correlation relationships between precipitation, basin surface area, and runoff. Long-term forecasts of river runoff are produced on the basis of the AISHF model developed by Uzhydromet. The NMHS of Tajikistan needs a technological breakthrough in terms of procurement and implementation of modern technologies for the analysis of forecasting of weather conditions. Introduction of advanced GIS-technologies should be accompanied by operational staff training.

The NHMS produces: • Meteorological one-day, 3-5 day and monthly weather forecasts; • Ten day, monthly and quarterly hydrological forecasts, and those for the vegetation period;• Warnings about potential hazardous weather events;• Data on the hydrometeorological conditions and air pollution in major cities for the past day.Forecast accuracy for all parameters makes up 80-85% and 72-76% during transition seasons. The reasons for such low ac-

curacy include the lack of GIS-technologies for visualization of global model calculations performed at the leading foreign meteo-rological centers, atmospheric sounding data from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan, as well as the lack of qualified weather forecasters.

The NMHS has no modern technologies of meteorological forecasting; software for data visualization and processing of satellite images is unavailable; all technological operations are performed manually; materials are provided in an unsatisfactory format.

Standard software for the forecaster’s workplace, and automated work stations are non-existent.To improve the quality of meteorological forecasts, especially those of EHHs and HHs, it is, first and foremost, required to

considerably increase the amount of data and information products received by the NMHS Weather Forecast Center from the leading world centers, introduce modern data visualization systems, expand the computing capacity, and improve calculation and forecasting techniques.


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2.2.3. TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES

COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF DATA AND INFORMATION PRODUCTS

The Communication Center (CAC) is responsible for the work of the automated data transmission system, collection and dis-semination of all hydrometeorological and other information within the specified serviced area. The Message Switching Center (MSC) of UniMAS (Universal Meteorological Automated System) acts as the automated data collection and dissemination center, and represents the system of special-purpose ОС Linux software operated by a standard medium speed PC.

To obtain meteorological maps, the UniMAS MSC provides Internet based receipt of a minimum set of hydrometeorological data mainly comprising an extremely limited series of analytical and forecasting maps of surface and high-latitude fields of meteo-rological parameters. Due to limited access time and insufficient capacity of Internet-links, the maps are received with considerable delays.

The Center of Automated Communication of the Tajikhydromet collects and disseminates hydrometeorological information (see the diagram below) through the facilities of the Ministry of Communications, cellular communication facilities, and internal radio communication system.

Tajikistan is linked to the international meteorological telecommunications network through the Regional Center in Tashkent, and to the World Meteorological Center in Moscow. Data intended for international and interstate exchange are manually entered into a computer, and transmitted to Tashkent via a relevant UniMAS interface.

Due to the high cost of provider services, 3 regional centers (in Khorog, Khatlon and Kairakkum) are cut off from web-based facilities and therefore unable to get information from the central office.

Depending on the availability and level of development of telecommunications in respective localities, hydrometeorological stations and monitoring sites are transmitting observational results using various means of communication: ATS telephones, cel-lular phones, radio stations and antenna fields. Automated stations transmit data via meteor-burst communication links. Data from hydrometeorological stations are mainly reported in the form of voice messages communicated via a radio channel (through radio stations) and by phone (through ATS or cellular phones).

The available communication and power supply facilities are obsolete and have exhausted their service life. Many stations are using age-old Angara-1 radio stations, many of them already being inoperative. The available antenna fields are often inefficient. Obsolete and deteriorated power supply facilities fail to ensure stable operation of communication lines, especially in spring and autumn seasons. No problem with power supply occur in simmer, while in the autumn-spring period, due to the obsolence and lack of components for accumulators, failures in the work of most petrol/diesel generators and voltage converters, some stations are unable to ensure operational data transmission, and provide observational results once or twice a month by an opportunity.

Stations transmitting information by phone are facing their own challenges: communication lines at some stations are dam-aged, and phones are inoperative while no back up communication facilities are currently available.

Percentage of hydrometeorological information obtained from stations and observational sites:• Forecasts – 73.6 %• Hydrological data – 52%• Agrometeorological data – 54.1%• Climate data – 42.8%• Pollution data – 14.3%• Radiometric data – 57% Given the remote and difficult access to the majority of network facilities, of special concern is the lack of feedback with a

considerable number of stations and gauges. Low efficiency of communication at the lower level of NMHS operational units is, above all, caused by:• considerable deterioration of communication and power supply facilities;• almost non-existent qualified communication specialists both at the Headquarters, and at HMC and stations;• technological failures of the public telecommunication facilities;• lack of funds to pay for the services of communication and Internet providers.In view of the above, one can conclude that the data collection and dissemination system at Tajikhydromet is inefficient and

requires fundamental restructuring. Unsystematic delivery of communication and power supply devices to individual (even high priority) stations, and installation of new MSC at HMC and cluster radio stations is inefficient and would hardly help to address the problem. A program of institutional and technical activities should be developed to modernize the telecommunications system of Tajikhydromet.


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DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING

Automatic processing and special control of observational data were previously performed at the Central Asian Regional Computer Center (CARCC) in Tashkent. Since 1997 (and partially since 1996), all observational data have been kept in hard copies (observation books) subject to critical and partial technical review.

In February 2008, a specialist from Roshydromet installed PERSONA MIS and PERSONA MIP software systems for automated data processing at the Meteorological Center.

The overall amount of stored information exceeds 6 thousand copies. Meteorological data are available (though in hard cop-ies) from all stations and sites of the Agency, including the currently closed ones, since the time they started operations. Electronic data storage is nonexistent.

Data on all major meteorological parameters: air temperature and humidity, soil surface temperature, cloud amount, wind, at-mospheric events and precipitation, and snow cover level – are available from all stations. Information from some special-purpose stations includes data on soil temperature at the depth of 0.05-3.2 m, sunshine, hourly data on air temperature and humidity from automatic recorders, precipitation duration and intensity, as well as unprocessed actinometric information.

As necessary, the information is written out by hand from tables (separate HMS files arranged by years) kept in the archive in А2 format, which requires a lot of times and manual labor. Frequent use of hard copies causes undesirable effects such as torn out edges, unstuck pages, worn down figures, etc.

A databank of satellite images of the RT territory is being created to accumulate statistical data on the dynamics of snow cover and glacier melting in RT mountains as a result of climate change.

Almost no scientific and technical literature and hydrometeorological textbooks have been received in the recent 15 years thus minimizing the opportunity to learn about new hydrometeorological technologies.

Measures need to be taken to save the national climate databank through arranging the storage of documents to ensure their security, and initiate activities on converting historic records in electronic form. Data conversion to digital format will require pro-curement of equipment for the archival of information kept in hard copies.

2.3. PRODUCTS AND SERVICE DELIVERY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION,

NATIONAL COORDINATION

2.3.1. WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES

The NHMS issues a daily hydrometeorological newsletter with daily forecasts for major regions (Khatlon, Sogd, Regions of Republican subordination and Mountain-Badakhshan Autonomous Region), and large cities (Dushanbe, Khorog, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube). In addition to daily forecasts, 5-day and monthly forecasts are also produced for the above regions. The Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasts has the list of forecast addressees, and a register of storm warnings. The Center is staffed by

Figure 2.9 Data archive in the Tajikhydromet Central Office and me-

teorological data records from stations



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50% and therefore implements a minimum work program. To reduce the work load, during the summer season specialists work only in the daytime.

NMHS performs no systematic work with users concerning the utilization of forecasts and current weather information.

2.3.2. CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES

Climate information services are provided by the Climate Change and Ozone Layer Research Center. The staff of the Center consists of 12 persons. As part of the preparation of the first National Report, assessment of the current climate in Tajikistan was performed (2002) and submitted to the Secretariat of the UN Convention on Climate Change. The Center is working towards involving Tajikistan in activities under the UNCCC and Kyoto Protocol. With the leading role of the NMHS and international as-sistance, the National Report on Enhancing the Capacity in Priority Sectors of Tajikistan Economy (2-nd stage of the First National Statement), and the National Action Plan of the Republic of Tajikistan on Climate Change Mitigation approved by RT Government Resolution (# 259 dated June 6, 2003). In 2008, were the Second National Statement under the UNCCC was prepared (Re-public of Tajikistan, 2008).

No works are being implemented in the area of applied climatology; nor is any cooperation established with sectors of the economy to provide climate information on a contractual basis.

However, as follows from user surveys, and as the preparation of the first National Report under the UNCCC has shown, there is a keen interest in climate information within the country, as well as the understanding of the importance of the knowledge of climate conditions for the development of the national economy. As part of CIS cooperation, a request should be made to acquire a methodology for the calculation of special climate parameters, and establish contractual arrangements with the users of such information.

2.3.3. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY SERVICES

As compared to other services, this area of activity has a relatively modern technological base enabling to develop marketable information products. Since 2004 the Agency has been issuing Hydrological Yearbooks compiled using the software provided by the Swiss Aral Sea Mission (SASM). HydroPro software is part of the commercial model used by the Swiss National Hydrological and Geological Survey (SNHGS); the model was tested using the NMHS hydrological data.

Since 2003 the Swiss Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) has been used in hydrological practice to produce short-term river runoff forecasts. Long-term river runoff forecasts are made using the Automated Information System of Hydrological Forecasts (AISHF) developed by Uzhydromet. Rainstorm runoff forecasting is performed using correlative relationships.

At present, RT NMHS produces hydrological forecasts for 7 facilities in 4 basins:River basins:• Vakhsh (Darband River – Komsomolobad gauge), • Pyanj (Gunt River – Khorog, Vanch River – Khumragi village, Yakhsu River – Karboztonak gauge), • Kafirnigan (Kafirnigan River – Tartki gauge, Varzob River – Daganа gauge)• Syr Darya (Isfara River – Tashkurgan gauge)10 day hydrological forecasts are made for 2 facilities: Varzob River – Daganа gauge, Darband River – Komsomolobad

gauge. Forecasting and current situation analyses for the Varzob River (Daganа gauge) were performed using hydrometeorologi-cal data from the automated station in Daganа.

Long-term forecasts for the vegetation period (April – September) are produced for all facilities (20 copies).Personnel supporting operation of hardware/software systems and creation of information products receive extra payments as

specialists participating in the project. According to the First Deputy Head of Sogd region Khukumat (administration), local users are still dissatisfied with the quality

and scope of information products provided by the NMHS, especially long-term and seasonal forecasts. In his view, the quality of data on the actual condition of water bodies also remains low causing difficulties in water management, and regional tension among adjoining states.

2.3.4. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION MONITORING

Environmental monitoring of water bodies and atmospheric air has been performed since 1965 by a specialized entity – Envi-ronmental Monitoring Department; observations include measurements of surface water pollution in major rivers and air pollution in large cities.

Until 1990, monitoring of surface water pollution has been performed in 46 rivers, 6 lakes, 1 water reservoir, 86 water intake sites, content of 41 components being measured. At present, monitoring is performed in 21 rivers and 41 water intake sites, and 31 components are measured.


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Air pollution monitoring was performed in 7 cities at 21 pollution monitoring sites (PMS) with 21 pollutants being measured, including heavy metals. At present, there are 3 PMS left (2 in Dushanbe, 1 in Kurgan Tyube).

Laboratory equipment at the hydrochemical laboratory has not been replaced in recent years: out dated instruments are used, and no calibration is performed. However, data on water quality, especially in boundary rivers, are highly important for the agreements with neighboring countries with respect to the amount and quality of water received by adjoining states from Tajikistan. Almost no air pollution data services are provided. The laboratory in Dushanbe measures only major pollutants at 2 sites, the laboratory in Kurgan-Tyube does not have a minimum set of instruments and devices (not even a distiller), and implements few or no air pollution measurements.

2.3.5. ACTIVE MODIFICATION OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES

The NMHS structure includes the Department of active Modification of Hydrometeorological Processes. Historically, since 1976 active modification units have been operating under the NMHS to protect agricultural areas from hailing. In 1990 there were 6 units responsible for 37 sites for active modification of hail bearing clouds. The units were equipped with meteorological radars MR-5 and rocket launchers for active modification of hail-bearing clouds.

Nowadays the Department includes 4 units, operations being performed by 2 units at 7 modification sites. According to de-velopment plans, additional 11 sites will become operational in 2009; another unit and 5 modification sites will start working in 2010, and by 2012 all 4 units will be operational.

The 2008-2012 Program of Renewal and Support of Anti-Hail Activities in Tajikistan has been developed and approved by the TR Government. The program was planned to be financed from the budget, the cost of its implementation being estimated as 10 million somoni. 348 thousand somoni are annually allocated for procurement of modification agents. Breakdown of funds al-located for Program implementation is shown in Annex 3 of the Report of the Findings of the Technical Mission, (Kotov , V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008).

As part of Program implementation, MR-5 radars and TKB-40 modification devices are being rehabilitated under the contract with the High-Mountain Geophysical Institute (Roshydromet); budget funds were allocated for procurement of Alazan-6 rockets (Cheboksary, RF). Contract was signed for the delivery of new modification devices ELIA-2 and AS rockets. The Department is planning to arrange for stimulating additional precipitation in spring by means of cloud modification.

Specialists of the Department of Active Modification annually estimate the size of areas protected from hailing, number of zones modified to prevent and terminate hail forming processes, and the economic effect of active modification activities. The size of protected agricultural areas during the recent 4 years was equal to 60 thousand ha (which is 10 times less than in 1990), the economic effect making up from 2.8 million to 0.9 million somoni per season depending on the number of zones subject to active modification.

Efforts should be made to utilize this capacity to support forecasting of severe weather.

2.3.6. CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT

Climate change studies were performed as part of the preparation of the First and Second National Reports for the UNCCC Secretariat. To provide coordinated scientific estimates of the scope and period of climate change, the Agency for Hydrometeorol-ogy studied climate changes occurred in Tajikistan during 1940-2000, and made projections for the period till 2050.

To allow unbiased assessment of climate change in Tajikistan, the database was established using information from 47 stations located in areas differing by physical and geographical conditions, and the level of man made climate impact. Stations were se-lected based on the review of their performance, as well as continuity and homogeneity of observations.

Analysis of mean annual air temperature variations revealed an increasing trend in air temperature. Analysis of climate trends showed a diverse pattern of air temperature variations. All climate zones included areas noted for both increasing and decreasing trends in medium, minimum and maximum monthly and seasonal temperatures. Lower temperatures tend to increase at a higher rate than the maximum ones.

Variations in annual precipitation amounts differ among various observation sites. No unambiguous answer is possible with respect to the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation variations. Changes in precipitation trends demonstrate a “patchy” pattern within the studied zones.

A decrease in annual precipitation amount by 10 or more percent may have significant negative consequences in Tajikistan due to increased aridity. An increase in the average precipitation amount will lead to increased variability – higher probability of extreme events.

In addition, studies were performed of changes in the number of days with precipitation of different intensity, number of days with draughts, and dynamics of snow cover accumulation.


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2.3.7. INFORMATION SERVICES PROVIDED TO USERS

International experience shows that provision of special-purpose information services may generate revenues from government discretionary funding reaching 40-60% of the total NMHS budget8. This is important to consider by Tajikhydromet which has very constrained budget. At present Tajikhydromet makes almost no use of this source of additional revenues. To ensure sustainability of any investments in the NMHS system, NMHS subdivisions should be encouraged to study the market of potential users, establish contractual relations, and develop standard information products responsive to user-needs.

In early 2006, under the Swiss projects (financed through the SDC) on providing assistance to NMHS, a survey of user-needs was performed to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of information support provided to final users at the national and regional levels in terms of routine (historic), operational (current) and forecasted hydrometeorological data. The results of the survey were to be used in formulating the targets for further improvement of NMHS performance. The survey was performed among the minis-tries responsible for water management and agriculture, power sector, emergency situations, transport, River Basin Management Organizations (RBMO), and Intergovernmental Coordination Commission on Water Management (ICCW).

The results of the survey show that information priorities of the users include the following (see below):1. First priority: forecasts of water flow/runoff, precipitation and air temperature. Therefore, high priority is given to medium- and long-term (1-month, 3-month and vegetation period) forecasts of the runoff, as well as short-term and monthly forecasts of precipitation and air temperature with less importance of short-term water flow forecasts. 2. Second priority: operational (current) data on water flow/runoff, precipitation and air temperature, and current data on the snow cover.3. Third priority: routine (historic) data on water flow/runoff, precipitation and air temperature.4. Fourth priority: operational and routine data on chemical indicators of water quality and mineral content. 5. Users are primarily concerned about the quality of medium- and long-term runoff forecasts, lack of forecasted data on some important river basins, and delays in producing runoff forecasts for the vegetation period. Various users of hydrometeorological information indicated the following specific interests:• Users from the irrigation sector emphasize the lack of information on Syr Darya tributaries (especially within the Fergana Valley). • Committee of emergency situations attains high importance to short-term runoff forecasts and daily operational data on water flow, thickness and extent of snow cover in periods of intensive hazardous meteorological events. They need monthly data on the above priority parameters for their routine operations.• Water temperature data and forecasts are mainly important for the agricultural sector. • The ICCW needs data on annual runoff and precipitation amount. • The irrigation sector uses forecasts and current information on the winter regime of major rivers (with regulated and natural flow) and their main tributaries.

2.4 SUMMARY OF CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

An extensive technical review of observational networks and other hydrometeorological infrastructure (telecommunications, facilities for forecasting weather conditions within the country, warning systems) of the Tajikhydromet, including the outcomes of assistance projects implemented by NRMP/USAID, WMO, Swiss Agency for development and GEF/World Bank in support of regional NMHS has been conducted.

It shows that the current condition of the hydrometeorological service fails to meet the needs of the government and the weather and climate sensitive social and economic sectors for hydrometeorological services. It also shows that the Tajikhydromet fails to fulfill the country’s international and regional obligations for weather and climate information including those under the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Observation Network.

In summary: the current meteorological and hydrological observing systems have been steadily declining as instrumentation becomes obsolete, fails and is not replaced.

These existing networks do not meet modern requirements and impedes Tajikistan’s participation in the global observing net-work.

• There is a critical lack of communication facilities, essential equipment and instrumentation, including standard ther-mometers, hygrometers, chemical agents, hydrometric current meters and winches, thermometer shelters. As a result many

8 Discretionary funding is not a substitute for the essential support required to sustain the core public service functions of the NMHS. Discretionary funding is usually associated with a specific and often short-term need of a user that can be met on a contractual basis. Often governments define this kind of discretionary funding as Commercial Revenue; albeit obtained from state-owned or government agencies to provide non excluded products and services. The provision of excluded products and services, which is an inherently commercial and usually part of a for-profit enterprise occurs when the product and service is provided on an exclusive basis so that the same data is not available to another user. In the present context we are referring to the need to seek contract support that does not compete with the provision of a broad array of public information services.


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observing stations have had to terminate monitoring of extreme air and soil temperatures, reduce precipitation measurements, environmental monitoring, hydrological and agrometeorological measurements. The deterioration and aging of capital assets is an acute problem with more than 80% of the instrumentation obsolete. Calibration of the remaining network is inadequate.• The decline in the observing networks impact the quality of the analyses and forecasts of weather conditions. Aerological measurements of the three dimensional structure of the atmosphere are particularly important for forecasts, but have been terminated due to lack of expendables and failure of the sounding systems.• Current funding is insufficient to finance basic operations costs, including rations and fuel for generators. • Few assistance projects have had a sustainable impact because of the lack of skilled staff to support technical innovation and the lack of financial resources to support the ongoing cost of communications. Acquiring and retain qualified staff is a major issue.• Hail suppression is a significant function of the Tajikhydromet. Plans to restore this capability should also consider how radar data can be used routinely in routine nowcasting and forecasting.• There are no forecaster workstations. Forecasters rely on maps and satellite images when available. They do not have the computing capacity or sufficient internet access to acquire and visualize the needed range of global model products from the leading foreign meteorological centers. They also lack the capacity to acquire atmospheric sounding data from neighboring countries. As a result forecast accuracy is low. • Regional centers do not have internet access due to the high cost of the service and therefore are unable to get informa-tion from the central office. Data are communicated in many different ways, hydrometeorological stations mainly report in the form of voice messages. Unstable power supply limits the reliability of operational data transmission.• Service provision is uneven. Staffing in the weather information services is at 50% so a minimum work program is imple-mented. No systematic work is conducted with users of forecasts and current weather information. Climate information services are provided by the Climate Change and Ozone Layer research Center. These are responsible for the preparation of national assessment reports required as part of the UN framework Convention on Climate Change. This group does not pro-vide climate services to economic sectors despite the apparent need based on user surveys. In contrast with other services, the agricultural meteorology service is relatively well equipped through Swiss donor support and can provide a variety of products, although the quality of long-term and season forecasts remain a problem. Almost no air pollution data services are provided.


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CHAPTER 3. ASSESSMENT OF USER-NEEDS

IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION

3.1. APPROACHES TO NEEDS ASSESSMENT

When preparing their modernization programs, NMHSs have traditionally focused on the technological aspects of hydro-meteorological service development. Such approach aims at improving forecast accuracy and timeliness. However, inadequate interaction with users usually prevents NMHSs from taking into account their actual and especially potential information needs. A complete absence or under development of contacts with users at the modernization package development stage results in a gap between the opportunities and plans of hydrometeorological service provision and understanding of what, how and where NMHS information can be used most efficiently for management decision making in specific sectors of the economy.

This lack of attention to end users’ current and potential understanding of their benefits from better hydrometeorological ser-vices during NMHS modernization may further increase information misalignment9 between a hydrometeorological service and its users. To avoid this, it is essential for NMHSs to build their interaction with users on the basis of modern principles, taking into account users’ interest in NMHS development and demonstrating to them their own and national benefits, including the economic ones.

There are several key factors, which determine the priority, scale and sequence of activities to modernize the National Hydro-meteorological Service and improve its institutional structure. These include assessment and recognition of the current status and trends in the needs for hydrometeorological information on the part of governmental institutions, users in major producing and nonproducing sectors of the economy, and the population.

The objectives and expected results of user-needs assessment are to: (I) identify the causes and factors of poor interaction be-tween NMHS and its users; (II) recommend to NMHS the most efficient way of cooperation with users; and (iii) propose to users how to integrate/apply hydrometeorological information and formulate their needs for it.

User needs for hydrometeorological information in Tajikistan were assessed in two stages on the basis of review and summariz-ing of a number of efforts.

First, NMHS experts identified the NMHS development priorities proceeding from the analysis of its current conditions, user-needs (as perceived by the NMHS), and knowledge of opportunities provided by modern hydrometeorology. This survey is based on the questionnaire developed during preparation of the National Hydromet Modernization in Russia (2003-2004)10 and further tailored to estimate the economic benefits from the improved quality of hydromet services following the modernization of national meteorological services in ECA region (2005-2007)11.

Second, the key users’ needs in hydrometeorological services were assessed in order to prepare recommendations on building Tajikhydromet’s capacity to provide synoptic/meteorological/hydrological services and information, as well as hydrometeoro-logical hazard and disaster warnings to the national Government, economy and population. The assessment targeted the most significant (in terms of GDP share) industries/sectors that are vulnerable to EHHs and HHs.

The user-needs assessment was based on a special checklist (World Bank, 2008b) developed using WMO materials, World Bank earlier studies, and the Questionnaire on Assessment of User Needs in Hydro Meteorological Information previously used for a survey conducted with the assistance of the regional project Swiss Support to NMHS in the Aral Sea Basin (Tajikhydromet, 2008).

3.2. ASSESSMENT OF KEY SECTORS’ NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL

INFORMATION

3.2.1. TAJIKHYDROMET ASSESSMENT OF USER-NEEDS IN HYDROMETEROLOGICAL

INFORMATION AND FORECASTS Tajikhydromet management has clear understanding that in order to make investments into the NMHS sustainable it is neces-

sary to encourage and stimulate Tajikhydromet divisions to study the market of potential users (including private sector), develop standard user oriented information products and establish fee-based services.

9 Information misalignment stems from the fact that NMHS experts do not know all of the details of specific sector operations and, therefore, cannot adjust their products to users’ specific needs and requirements. At the same time, users do not know all of the opportunities of modern hydrometeorology and, therefore, cannot formulate their potential needs accurately and correctly.10 Tsirkunov, V., M. Smetanina, A. Korshunov, and S. Ulatov. 2004. 11 World Bank. 2008c.


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By early 2006 under the Swiss Support projects (funded through SDC) the first survey of user-needs has been completed. The survey aimed to identify strengths and weaknesses in the delivery of information services (historical and operational hydrometeo-rological data, weather forecast products) at the national and regional level in order to formulate up-to-date objectives and tasks and to further improve operation of NMHSs. In the survey 24 sectors were involved (see report SDC. 2006).

The survey allowed the conclusion to be made on the importance of meteorological services for users and the weakest point in the forecast products and EHH and HH warnings produced by Tajikhydromet to be identified.

Similar survey was conducted by Tajikhydromet in February 2008. Its main conclusions are presented in Box 3.1.

According to the Tajikhydromet experts key factors limiting production and delivery of high-quality hydrometeorological infor-mation are as follows:

• underfunding of the NMHS, low salaries; • decline of observational networks by 20-30% including lack of automated hydrometeorological observations in hard-to-access regions;• worn-out equipment, obsolete technology; • lack/absence of up-to-date instruments (radars), high-resolution satellite meteorological information, modern forecasting techniques (seasonal forecasting); • inadequate scientific guidance support;• absence of upper air and actinometric observations, pasture vegetation surveys, data analysis, systematization and ar-chiving programs; • staffing problem.

Box 3.1 Main conclusions of the survey “Hydrometeorological provisions for users in the Republic of Tajikistan and

their needs in hydrometeorological information”

Questionnaire answers provided by respondents showed that since the 2006 survey a lot had been done by Tajikhydromet to improve the de-livery of hydrometeorological services. This conclusion is confirmed by the following facts:

• more users have begun to put trust in forecast products and to use them; • accuracy of air temperature, cloud amount and atmospheric precipitation forecasts as well as of EHH/HH warnings has somewhat improved. Of special note is the positive user feedback with regard to better accuracy of EHME/HHME warnings• quality of forecast products has improved; timeliness of product delivery has significantly improved may be due to the fact that more us-ers began to use modern information technologies. • user assessment of the content of EHH/HH warnings, including lead time, geographical area to be affected, EHME/HHME duration, has become more positive. • average level of user satisfaction of meteorological services provided by Tajikhydromet has increased• Most of users need both short range (1-3 days) and long range (week, month) meteorological forecasts. Ten day hydrological forecasts are of interest. Demand for long range (for a month or for the vegetation period) hydrological forecasts has increased. Most important data are: meteorological parameters (air temperature, road conditions, visibility, hazards); hydrological parameters (water chemistry, hydrological forecasts, current water levels, hazards); glaciological data (avalanches and mudflows). Some users need surface data, satellite data, specialized forecasts, mudflow and avalanche forecasts. 1/3 of respondents would like to have data of various integrated observations. • Several drawbacks in Tajikhydromet operation have been revealed. 1/5 of users noted that forecast products were delivered with delays, 2/5 of users were interested in more efficient delivery of forecast products. • Some users noted that the content of hydrometeorological bulletins was not adequate and consider that they should also include agrometeorological information and forecasts, information on surface waters and air quality in large industrial cities. Some weak points in EHME/HHME warnings were mentioned with regard to timeliness, area to be affected and duration. • Almost all users understand the importance of hydrometeorological information for planning and operation of their sectors and assess its use as efficient or quite efficient. However it should be noted that most of users surveyed in 2008 are not ready for the time being to pay for hydrometeorological information, may be due to inability of the economy sectors to pay.

Tajikhydromet draws attention of users to several areas, where it is desirable to establish cooperation: • analysis of effective use of hydrometerological information and benefits from this use; • dialog with users from a perspective of preparing specialized forecasts for tourism, health protection, fuel and energy. • dialog with the state owned insurance company on insurance against natural disasters.

Source: Tajikhydromet, 2008.


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At the same the Tajikhydromet experts indicated that there were some factors that do not allow users to enhance the use of hydrometeorological information and forecast products. The factors have been prioritized in the following way:

Potential users do not have basic skills for incorporating hydrometeorological data into relevant informed management de-cisions to facilitate damage reduction. To understand the possibilities offered by the present day hydrometeorology and basic principles of the effective use of hydrometeorological information and forecast products the assistance of professional hydrome-teorologists is needed.

Assistance of professional hydrometeorologists, whose number is not sufficient, is needed to chose the relevant type of infor-mation and products, to adequately adapt this information and these products to user requirements and to use them in practical operation in the most efficient way;

Current users do not know how to uses services offered by NMHS most effectively. Often they work in the old way using obso-lete methods and not taking into account ongoing climate change.

Current and potential users are not adequately informed about the Tajikhydromet services and products. Ministries and agen-cies do not communicate information on hydrometeorological services and their effective use to their subordinate divisions in the regions.

NMHS and/or user do not have an access to relevant communication systems to receive hydrometeorological data in the required mode. Timeliness of urgent messages, accessibility and understanding of routine messages, design and quality of out-put products are assessed as low. Increasingly users need hydrometeorological products that could be easily incorporated into computer-integrated sectoral management systems.

Taking into account the mandate of Tajikhydromet as a NMHS it is not possible to switch hydrometeorological services fully to contractual basis. At the same time to support sectors of the economy and meet a mass demand for hydrometeorological informa-tion it is necessary to develop specialized, targeted, user-oriented services. A well-balanced strategy and models of interaction with users should be developed which would take into consideration possibilities offered by modernization of Tajikhydromet and willingness of users to employ various forms of cooperation suitable for their current situation and future demands.

Products of the NMHS do not always meet practical needs of users. The task of Tajikhydromet is to provide information to users in a timely, most adequate and user friendly way.

Table 3.1 presents current and potential users of specialized hydrometeorological services (SHMSs) provided by Tajikhy-dromet on a contractual (commercial) basis as well as types of services being provided.

Organization/sector Types of SHMSs

Current users of SHMSs

Ministry of Melioration and Water Management Weather forecasts for 5 daysForecasts of water resourcesEmergency forecasts and warnings

Ministry of Agriculture and Nature Protection Weather forecasts for 5 daysEmergency forecasts and warnings Weather forecasts for the paths of cattle drive

Ministry of Energy and Industry Rate of stream flow forecasts

Ministry of Transport and Communications Rate of stream flow forecasts

Committee of Emergency Situations Weather forecasts for 5 daysEmergency forecasts and warnings

Railway Administration Weather forecasts for 5 daysEmergency forecasts and warnings

Traffic Police Administration (Ministry of Interior) Weather forecasts for 5 daysEmergency forecasts and warnings

Heat and Power Plant of Dushanbe Weather forecasts for 5 daysEmergency forecasts and warnings

Mass Media Weather forecasts for 5 daysEmergency forecasts and warnings

Potential users of SHMSs

Agency for Land Development, Geodesy and Cartography affiliated to the Government of Tajikistan

Climate dataWeather forecasts for 5 days and for a monthSeasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation

Agency for Construction and Architecture Climate dataWeather forecasts for 5 days

Table 3.1 Current and potential users of SHMSs


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Ministry of Economic Development and Commerce Weather forecasts for 5 days, month, season Emergency forecasts and warnings

Chief Administration for Geology affiliated to the Government of Tajikistan Climate dataEmergency warnings and emergency monthly forecasts

Ministry of Health Climate dataHealth-related forecasts

Communications Weather forecasts for 5 daysAvalanche hazard forecastsEmergency forecasts and warningsWind strengthening forecasts

Water Treatment Plant of Dushanbe Seasonal temperature and precipitation forecastsRate of stream flow forecasts

Housing and Public Utilities Climate dataEmergency warnings and emergency monthly forecastsSeasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts

Academy of Sciences Climate data

Insurance industry Climate dataEmergency warnings and emergency monthly forecastsSeasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts

Tourism and recreation Weather forecasts for 5 days and for a monthEmergency warnings and emergency monthly forecasts

Private companies Weather forecasts for 5 days and for a monthEmergency forecasts and warnings

3.2.2. ASSESSMENT OF WEATHER-DEPENDENT SECTORS’ NEEDS

IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION

The checklist used in this study to assess the needs of specific weather-dependent sectors included the following substantive survey blocks:

• EHHs and HHs influence, by impact type/degree and damage significance (one-time and total);• Relevance of forecast products, and barriers to their uses; • Hydrometeorological information (HMI) sources, types, and delivery channels and formats;• Quality assessment of delivered forecast products;• Requirements to NMHS products formulated with due regard for NMHS modernization;• Assessment of and methodologies for estimating economic damage from EHHs and HHs; and• Recommendations and proposals to Tajikhydromet to improve and customize hydrometeorological services.The results of the sector expert survey may be divided into two major groups:1). General information on the sector’s dependence on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards, on the amount and quality of HMI used by the sector, and on the current efficacy of HMI uses; and2). Information on the potential demand for various information types and presentation formats, accuracy and timeliness of each hydrometeorological element/event forecast required for sector operations, HMI requirements necessary for optimal performance, as well as recommendations and proposals on hydrometeorological service improvement and customization.The survey was conducted by Tajikhydromet staff and the World Bank consultants. Representatives of weather-dependent sec-

tors, who took part in the survey, were invited to participate in the consultation workshop on Improving Weather Forecast Efficiency in the Tajik Republic (Dushanbe, November 27, 2008), where they attended a special session to discuss and update HMI needs assessment of weather-dependent sectors of the economy.

Table 3.2 provides a list of organizations invited to participate in the survey on assessment of user-needs in HMI.

EMERGENCIES

In the survey the Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense affiliated to the Government of Tajikistan (CoES) was represented by the expert from the Information and Analysis Center responsible for the analysis of hydrometeorological informa-


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tion. Of all natural emergencies encountered in Tajikistan emergencies caused by hydrometeorological factors occur most often.

Efficiency of CoES divisions directly depends on accuracy and timeliness of hydrometeorological forecasts and EHH/HH warn-ings since they are responsible for prevention, preparedness and mitigation of emergencies caused by the whole range of natural hydrometeorological events.

Among hydrometeorological emergencies most frequent are those triggered by precipitation and glacier and snow patch melt-ing. By significance of impact (significant one-time and total damage) the following events were identified: floods and mudflows, heavy precipitation (rain, snow, hail), strong wind (hurricane, squall), severe frost.

Currently CoES uses information provided by Tajikhydromet and the Hydromet Center of Russia. As to information products provided by Tajikhydromet current (real-time) information and forecast products (short-range forecasts – up to 3 days, mid-range forecasts – from 3 to 15 days, and long-term forecasts – up to 4-6 months if available, and climate data (generalized for 1-month and 1-year periods) are used. Most essential and important for the emergency sector are EHH/HH warnings.

Hydrometeorological information is used for both operational management and long-term planning. At present hydrometeorological information is delivered by telephone through the forecaster on duty and by the Internet/E-

mail. In the future satellite data are expected to be delivered. In general the format of information presented by Tajikhydromet was assessed as satisfactory taking into account communica-

tion channels currently available. It the future it is desirable to have information in textual (descriptive information), statistical and cartographic form.

Accuracy of meteorological and hydrological forecasts was assessed as fairly low (should be improved) their timeliness – as rather satisfactory. Currently forecasts of emergencies caused by hydrometeorological factors do not meet requirements. Forecasts of emergency probability in the warm period – from May to October – are least accurate. Most often EHH/HH forecasts are given for the whole of the country, sometimes for specific regions and river basins, more detailed forecasts are not provided. Data from specific observation sites come not on a regular basis and not in full.

Operational information is delivered only on working days. It poses significant problems for CoES. CoES communicates weath-er forecasts to 4 regional offices (Sogd, GBAO, Kulyab, Khatlon) by E mail. To other divisions only telephone messages informing on the possibility of emergency occurrence are delivered. In general delivery of hydrometeorological information to CoE Sregional offices and divisions is not adequate.

There are problems with delivery of historical information, since in Tajikhydromet an electronic database is not available, all archives are on paper.

According to the expert for the time being forecast reliability/accuracy is satisfactory only for air temperature and wind speed and direction. Duration of hail and ground frost is not forecasted. Accuracy of summer flood and mudflow forecasts is low. Time of river floods corresponds to that of high water periods and depends on river feed and hydrometeorological conditions. Impacts of floods and amount and character of related damage also depend on bank protection structures and location of settlements and farming lands, particularly on such rivers as Pyanj, Yahsu and Kyzylsu. Ten day and one month lead time hydrological forecasts will allow CoES to timely communicate the appropriate information to its regional offices and district divisions and to the public, to

Sector OrganizationEmergencies Information and Analysis Center of the Committee of Emergency Situations and

Civil Defense (protection of population and territory against emergencies)12 Agriculture Industrial and Grain Crops Department of the Ministry of Agriculture13

Transport

Main Administration for Construction and Road Maintenance of the Ministry of Transport and Communications14

Irrigation and Water resources management

Department of Water Resources, Science and Technology of the Ministry of Melioration and Water Resources15

State Unitary Enterprise “Water Treatment Plant of Dushanbe”16

Energy Electric Power (Production Engineering Service “Barki Tajik”)17

Heat Power (“Heat and Power Plant of Dushanbe”)18

Table 3.2 Organizations participated in the survey

12 Mirzokhonova, Natalia. and A. Shomakhmadov. 2008b.13 Murodov, S. 2008.14 Toirov, Tolibjon. 2008b.15 Latipov, Rustam P. 2008b. 16 Khushvaktov, M. 2008. 17 Burkhanov, R. and Vazirbekova S. 2008b. 18 DHSE. 2008.


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control hazardous areas, to coordinate with the Ministry of Water Resources and Ministry of Transport measures on strengthening banks and bridges. When one-day lead time forecasts are provided, CoES communicates the relevant information to its regional offices. With two-day lead time forecasts information is communicated to district divisions, dzhomoats and population. Three-day lead time forecasts allow emergency mitigation measures to be taken. Five-seven-day lead time forecasts allow engineering and technical measures to be taken to prevent the emergency.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the efficient operation of CoES divisions: temperature (daily minimum and maximum), precipitation (rain, hail, snow) and its duration and intensity; wind speed (including wind gust speed), hydrometeorological hazards (floods, mudflows, etc).

Current efficiency of the use of hydrometeorological information was assessed as unsatisfactory because quality of delivered hydrometeorological services does not meet the requirements. At the same time it is noted that the use of adequate quality services and forecasts is an important component of improving CoE operation and long-term planning. For CoE timeliness of EHH/HH forecasts (a lead time should be not less than 1 day) and information on the area expected to be affected are critical.

CoES maintains accounting of damage caused by EHHs and HHs. However, there are difficulties in maintaining this ac-counting caused by inadequate-quality assessments of damage due to the lack of optimal legislative documents (and as results disagreement in damage assessment by types of emergencies), separate accounting for each type of emergences, standards and tariffs for emergency rehabilitation works and accounting of expenditure for complete recovery of damaged facilities.

CoES does not assess economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information. It is explained primarily by the cur-rent lack of concern and small need to do this job as well as by the lack of relevant assessment techniques and qualified specialists.

Climate information available in Tajikhydromet is used to study trends in the frequency of EHH and HH occurrence associated with climate change.

In addition the expert highlighted CoES priorities with regard to improving the hydrometeorological service delivery and inter-action with Tajikhydromet. In this context it is proposed to:

1. Develop in cooperation with Tajikhydromet forecasting techniques for avalanches, mudflows and floods to be able to predict emergencies in specific regions and districts of the Republic. Special emphasis should be placed on forecasts of mud-flows and floods in summer caused by the significant rise in temperature.2. Further study the regime of rivers in order to classify them by emergency risk (to prepare a relevant catalog) (in coopera-tion with Tajikhydromet). 3. Make a catalog of regions and settlements most vulnerable to floods. 4. Prepare GIS maps of zones flooded due to the river water level rise.5. Provide for communication of weather forecasts to other regional divisions and communication of EHH/HH related emer-gency warnings to all regions and, if possible, to dzhomoats to enable measures on damage reduction.

AGRICULTURE

Agriculture is the largest sector of the economy only a little smaller than industry. It accounts up to 1/4 in the GDP of Tajikistan. Its share in the export of the country is 1/4 and it provides 2/5 of tax revenues. Over 60% of labor force is involved in agriculture.

Overall dependence of agriculture on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards was assessed as high. Actually all types of hydrometeorological events affect this sector. By degree of impact on crop husbandry the experts rated them as fol-lows: heavy rains and mudflow floods, high air temperature accompanied by lack of water in rivers and drought, strong wind and dust storms, frosts and extremely low temperature. Weather and climate impact is experienced in fall when heavy rains contribute to formation of soil crust and wash out crops causing unrecoverable damage to crop production. Hail brings significant physical damage. It breaks footstalks deteriorating quality of crops and contributing to the crop yield decrease.

Crop yield to a great extent depends on correctly selected dates of seeding, soil conditions and the sum of effective tempera-tures. Extremely high temperatures accompanied by lack of water in the rivers lead to drought, fire hazard and shortage of water and as a consequence to significant economic damage. Losses caused by climate factors and weather conditions exceed those caused by non-meteorological factors considerably.

Reliable and timely hydrometeorological information and forecasts allowing informed day-to-day decisions to be made on farming operations such as seeding, planting, irrigation, spraying and harvesting as well as on storage and transportation of ag-ricultural products defines to a large extent measures required to reduce losses and damage in agriculture.

It is expected that due to climate change impact of extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events on agriculture will grow. The greatest concern is about long lasting droughts and outbursts of crop pests and diseases, usually regional in terms of coverage and impacts. High quality climate information is therefore considered by the expert as a basis to develop sector-specific actions on improved long-term planning of the Ministry of Agriculture taking into account climate change.


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MELIORATION AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

Melioration and water resources are controlled by the Ministry of Melioration and Water Resources of Tajikistan according to the traditional administrative territorial principle. Under the Ministry there are 2 regional, 5 territorial and 42 area and inter area State Water Resources Departments (SWRD).

During the survey and after-survey discussions the expert from the Ministry of Melioration and Water Resources emphasized the importance of operational and historical hydrometeorological information for the current management and long-term planning in the field of water resources.

Each year the water sector of the Tajikistan economy suffers heavy damage from natural disasters typical for a zone of water resources formation, such as floods, mudflows, landslides, etc. They damage not only water sector facilities, but also ruin roads, bridges, power and communication lines, dams, administrative and residential buildings and damage arable lands.

Tajikhydromet is a priority source of hydrometeorological information used by water sector specialists. However, information available in the Internet is also used.

The expert mentioned the following factors complicating the effective use of hydrometeorological data: lack of skills for in-corporating hydrometeorological data into relevant informed management decisions to facilitate damage reduction; need for assistance of professional hydrometeorologists to interpret the available information; low level of awareness about sector oriented products and information that could be provided by Tajikhydromet; no access to relevant communication systems to receive hydro-meteorological data in the required mode; range of products offered by Tajikhydromet does not meet current needs of the sector.

The water sector uses the following products of Tajikhydromet: current information, forecast products (short range forecasts – up to 3 days, mid range forecasts – 3-15 days), climate information (generalized for 1 month period).

At present hydrometeorological information is delivered by the Internet/E-mail through the forecaster on duty. This channel is preferable in the future too.

In general the format of information presentation was assessed as satisfactory taking into account communication channels currently available. Cartographic form of presentation was mentioned as a preferable option.

The water sector experts assessed quality of forecasts in terms of their accuracy and timeliness, and accuracy and timeliness of EHH/HH forecasts and warnings including information on the area to be affected and EHH/HH duration, as satisfactory.

It was mentioned as reasonable to include into EHH/HH warnings information on possible impacts and measures to be taken to mitigate these impacts. It will allow adequate anti-mudflow and anti-flood measures to be optimized.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the water resources management and irrigation sector: temperature (current temperature); air humidity; precipitation (rain, hail, snow); hazardous events (floods and mudflows, frosts, etc.). It was also considered necessary to provide a wider range of hydrological, hydrometric and hydrographic parameters. Information on actual and expected conditions on rivers and lakes, changes in relief and surges of glaciers, water inflow and discharge was indicated as important.

With the current quality and timeliness of forecasts and warnings hydrometeorological data are required every day or once per several days. Better quality will enable the data to be required 3 times a day and more often, especially during the irrigation period.

The experts consider that accuracy and timeliness of forecasts for such elements as air temperature, atmospheric precipitation, wind speed and direction, ground frosts, and hail meet the requirements. At the same time information on EHHs/HHs should be considerably improved.

Box 3.2 Recent floods damages to agriculture

According to Regional Headquarters on Emergencies and Civil Defense, floods experienced in Khatlon region in summer 2005 caused damage estimated at USD 1.75 million. As a result 5750 m of shore protection structures and 350 m of irrigation channels were ruined, 1000 ha of cot-ton and 720 ha of wheat were washed out. Dushanbe, May 15. (NIAT “Khovar, Natalya Mikhaylova). According to preliminary data, estimates of damage caused to agriculture of Tajiki-stan by heavy rains and mudflows that have occurred through March, April and May, 2009, exceeds the amount of TJS 43 million (ca USD10 million). More definite figures will be known after a special governmental commission which is now surveying affected regions with the participa-tion of experts from the Academy of Agricultural Sciences sums up the results of the work. Farmer households have suffered the most losses. The heavy downpours in April have seriously damaged fruit-trees that had just started to blossom, while recent hails have shaken down early fruits. Because of such excessive precipitations the yield of fruit trees may decrease by 30 percent this year. Seedlings of cotton have been swept away from the area of 5.5 thousand hectares which makes 4 percent of the whole planting area. Due to heavy rains, the sowing campaign is lagging behind the schedule, while in some districts it may be even disrupted. Weather-forecasters say that the quality of this spring’s precipitations has been one-and-a-half times as big as usual monthly rate. The probability of further rain falling remains, because of the presence of moist Atlantic air masses over the territory of Tajikistan. Source: State News Agency of Tajikistan / http://www.khovar.tj/


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The experts believe that better lead time of meteorological (week and month) and hydrological (not less than ten-day period) forecasts will enable adequate and timely management decisions to be taken with regard to protective measures. Of special im-portance are forecasts of water amount during the vegetation period: low, medium or high.

Current efficiency of the HMI use in the sector is assessed as satisfactory. It is indicated that the use of high quality HMI and forecasts is an important factor for improvement of operation and long-term planning of the sector. To make the operation of its entities optimal the water sector is ready to pay the sector-oriented information.

At present entities of the sector maintain accounting of damage caused by EHHs and HHs including its economic assessment. High quality climate information is considered as a basis for the Rogun Reservoir regulation, construction of a hydropower

plant and taking other sector-specific measures with climate change in mind. Measures on prevention, minimization and mitigation of damage annually caused to the water sector by hydrometerological

hazards are of inter-sector significance and require adequate inter-sector coordination. This coordination should cover such issues as the hydrological and hydrometric network, data processing system, legislative basis for regular monitoring of territories exposed to EHH/HH (floods, mudflows) impact, measures to be taken in emergencies.

Box 3.3 Sector Context

The water resources system of Tajikistan includes water fund, channel facilities for river runoff regulation and territorial redistribution, water resources renewal, flood and mudflow protection structures, techno-biological and socio-sanitary water use facilities and wastewater systems. In terms of functionality all these are elements of water supply and water use. Water resources of the Vakhsh River are regulated most intensely for the pur-pose of seasonal regulation of the Amu Darya runoff. In Tajikistan there are 9 reservoirs with the volume ranging from 0.028 to 10.5 km3. The largest of them are Kairakum Reservoir located in the north of the Republic and Nurek Reservoir (see photo) located in the central part. They are used for power generation, irrigation, fish breeding, water supply and mudflow protection. The key task of the water sector is efficient water resources management across all sectors and natural economic zones including solution of relevant problems in the regional context. All large reservoirs including Kairakum and Nurek Reservoirs are used not only to meet the needs of power generation and irrigation in Tajikistan, but also to fulfill regional obligations of the country in terms of water delivery for irrigation to neighboring countries in summer pe-riod. In the period of intensive irrigation reservoirs work in the irrigation regime regulating natural hydrological regime of rivers. Tajikistan doesn’t have considerable oil and gas resources. Therefore it needs a lot of water resources for power generation in winter, and Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan located downstream need these resources for irrigation in sum-mer. In winter Tajikistan partly suspends operation of its hydraulic systems (to keep water for neighboring countries during the irrigation period), but at the same time has to import electric power from Uzbekistan and the amount of imported power is not sufficient. As a result power generated in summer is not used and in winter the amount generated is not sufficient. Profits lost due to operation of Kairakum and Nurek Reservoirs in the irrigation regime and difficulties in the use of excessive power in summer are aggravated by the fact that up to 70% of population in Tajikistan can have an access to electricity only several hours per day. The amount of water withdrawn from all sources of water resources in recent years was in the range of 12.9-14.6 km3, and amount of water use – in the range of 10.9-12.6 km3. Key water users in Tajikistan defining the socio economic development of the country are irrigated farming, households, production sector and hydropower industry. In water use (in terms of water withdrawal) irrigated farming dominates (90%). Other users range in the following order: households and agri-culture (about 3%), production sector (2%), fishery (about 0.5%), other sectors (about 1%). In the last 15 years country wide water use reduced from 13.7 to 12.3 km3 due to decline of production, changes in location of agricultural crop lands, worse melioration conditions of lands, unused lands, breakdowns in irrigation systems, charge for water delivery and other reasons. The current length of inter farm irrigation channels in the country is 6 thousand km, 39% of which are concrete and iron concrete lined. The total length of inter farm irrigation network is almost 25 thousand km, 35% of which is in the form of concrete lined flumes and pipelines. Depreciation of gravity irrigated systems is 50%, pump station – 65%. Efficiency factor of irrigation systems in Tajikistan is 55%. Water supply and waste water disposal and treatment (canalization) systems falls in the category of life-supporting infrastructure vital for the economy and population and have strategic, political and social significance. About 30% of water supply networks do not work due to different reasons. Just a little more than 3/5 of population use water from the water supply network, the rest of the people take water directly from rivers, channels, irrigation network and other sources unsafe in terms of sanitary. Efficiency of waste water treatment and disposal facilities does not exceed 40%. Only 15% of population has an access to canalization. Source: Fundamentals of Tajikistan Water Strategy (Draft). Dushanbe, 2006.,

Photo: Tajikhydromet http://www.meteo.tj/eng/photogallery_1.html


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So far in Tajikistan the system of sector-specific control of water (and hydropower) infrastructure has not been revived in full measure, the State Water Cadastre edition and hydrological yearbooks are not published on a regular basis, hydrological ac-counting is not maintained on the required level. Water use plans have significant drawbacks due to low qualification of personnel and inaccuracy of the required data.

To improve hydrometeorological services provided to the water sector it is necessary to undetake the following:• improve the network of river hydrological gauges to support emergency (floods first of all)) control, forecasting and warn-ing; • restore and develop hydrometeorological stations to support management decision on operational control, planning and response in emergency situations; • improve emergency data processing and management procedures; • improve forecast and warning systems at the nation-wide and local levels with special emphasis on watersheds with steep slopes; • improve sector planning, design and implementation of hydraulic engineering projects.

ENERGY SECTOR

In Tajikistan electricity is provided by the open joint stock holding company “Barki Tajik”. The company is in charge of all HPPs, combined heat and power plants (CPPs), transmission and distribution systems.

As a user of hydrometeorological information “Barki Tajik” interacts with Tajikhydromet on a contractual basis. In general dependence of the sector on weather conditions and hazardous meteorological events was assessed as fairly high.

For its operation floods, mudflows, heavy rain (in fall), strong wind and heavy snow are of critical importance. Strong heat, severe frost and hail also have a considerable impact.

Heavy rains lead to insulator flashover and failures of power supply provided to settlements and economic entities. In case of power cable breaks or failures of power line support structures and generation-shedding, power supply may be interrupted for quite a long time.

Heavy snow at the air temperature ranging from -3оС to + 3оС results in ice and snow loading that can lead to broken power cables and power supply interruptions for an appreciable length of time. The lack of timely weather information causes consider-able damage to energy supply systems and due to financial constrains it may take quite a long time to restore damaged facilities.

In its operations “Barki Tajik” uses hydrometeorological information and forecasts provided by Tajikhydromet . However the expert indicated that due to several reasons hydrometeorological information was not used efficiently. The following reasons were mentioned:

• lack of guidance documents (guides, manuals, recommendations) on how to use services and information provided by Tajikhydromet ;• lack of basic skills in using hydrometeorological data to gain economic benefits/reduce probable damage (to take timely and relevant management decisions to facilitating damage reduction); • no possibility to use the assistance of professionals, whose number is either not sufficient or there are no professional hydrometeorologists on the staff at all;• lack of resources (financial, physical, etc) and technologies to undertake protective measures needed in case of unfavor-able and hazardous weather events;• lack information on types of products and services that could be provided by Tajikhydromet ; • products provided by Tajikhydromet do not need current practical needs of the sector. The energy sector uses the following products of Tajikhydromet: current information, forecast products (mid range forecasts –

3-15 days, long range forecasts – 4-6 months) and climate information (generalized for 1 month period).At present hydrometeorological information is delivered by fax and by the Internet/E-mail and these channels are expected

to be used in the future too. The expert was undecided in assessing the format of information presentation with account to communication channels cur-

rently available. Textual form (descriptive information) of presentation was mentioned as a desirable option. Accuracy of forecasts was assessed as very low and should be improved considerably. Timeliness of forecasts was assessed as

fairly low. Accuracy and timeliness of EHH and HH forecasts and warnings including information on the area to be affected and EHH/HH duration were assessed as very low.

It was considered reasonable to include into EHH/HH warnings information on possible impacts and measures to be taken to mitigate these impacts.

According to the expert the forecast reliability/accuracy is unsatisfactory for such elements as wind speed and direction, floods and mudflows, hail.

The expert believes that better lead time of meteorological and hydrological information, forecasts and warnings will enable timely management decisions on protective measures to be taken. For example, 3-day lead time of meteorological forecast in the period of floods accompanied by heavy rain will allow water to be released from reservoirs, and, when power transmission line


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support structures are expected to be affected, it will allow the load to be timely redistributed over parallel power transmission lines. Ten-day lead time forecasts will make it possible to redefine the power transmission line load and take appropriate measure to strengthen support structures.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the electricity industry facilities: precipitation (rain, hail, snow); wind speed (including wind gust speed) and hydrometeorological hazards (floods, mudflows, frosts).

The current efficiency of the use of hydrometeorological information in the electric energy sector was assessed as unsatisfactory. The reasons were given above.

According to the expert the effective use of hydrometeorological information (of adequate quality and timeliness) should be an important factor for the improvement of operation and long-term planning of the sector. However he could not clearly formulate requirements to hydrometeorological information needed to make operation and planning optimal.

In “Barki Tajik”, at least in the division represented by the expert, accounting of damage from EHH and HH impact is not main-tained. May be it is due to the fact that the need in this information is not realized and also due to the lack of relevant specialists on the staff.

Climate information is also used by the sector, but sector-specific measures aimed to improve operation do not very much take into account climate change, though according to the expert it is important.

In general hydrometeorological services provided by Tajikhydromet were assessed as unsatisfactory. In addition to information and recommendations given in the questionnaire during the consultation workshop on Improving

Weather Forecast Efficiency in the Tajik Republic the expert of “Barki Tajik” provided proposals on the improvement of hydrome-teorological services delivered by Tajikhydromet from the perspective of the sector.

It was noted that regular monitoring of meteorological conditions (snow, wind, glaze) is important for both the sustainable operation of the sector assuming timely prevention of emergency situations, and design of power transmission lines. According to the expert it is necessary to restore previously operational hydrometeorological stations and gauges, to improve the lead time of warnings and accuracy of forecasts and storm warnings.

The need for the sector to reestablish close cooperation with Tajikhydromet was specially emphasized. It is important for the sector to understand and assess what benefits could be gained from the Tajikhydromet modernization, how to prepare for it and how to receive, process and use new information in operational activities.

Training of energy specialists to take advantage of up-to-date possibilities as well as sustainable improvement of hydrometero-logical services delivery and their effective integration into the process of sector management and planning (e.g. on the basis of specialized workshops for energy specialists on the use of hydrometeorological services in the hydro-energy industry) could be an important area of activities.

Contacts and cooperation should be strengthened not only between central offices, but also between territorial divisions (at the regional and district level).

TRANSPORT

The transport sector includes road, air, water, railway and pipeline transport. Due to the mountain relief development of rail-ways and pipelines is limited. Road transport plays a key role in cargo and passenger traffic. It accounts for about 90% of it.

The total length of public automobile roads controlled by the Ministry of Transport and Communications is 13,600 km, includ-ing 10,200 km of asphalt roads, the total length of bridges is 36.6 km. Most of automobile roads are in the highland area. Since a land area is not sufficient roads run in direct contact with the foot of mountain slopes and along mountain sais and rivers and are permanently exposed to destructive impact of landfalls, landslides, rock falls, mudflows, floods and other natural hazards.

Roads are distributed over the territory of Tajikistan unevenly: in the Amu-Darya (northern part of Tajikistan), Gissar and Vakhsh valleys and in the Kulyab region the road network is well-developed and the riding surface of the roads is good. In the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, Garm area and Zerafshan valley due to the complicated relief the road network is not well developed and the riding surface of the roads is bad. Because of climate conditions and riding surface parameters two most important highways – Dushanbe-Aini and Kalaihumb-Horog – are opened for traffic only six month a year.

In the survey the Ministry of Transport and Communications was represented by the expert from the Department of Road Con-struction, Repair and Maintenance.

In general dependence of the sector on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards was assessed as high. For roads floods, mudflows, strong wind (hurricane, squall), heavy precipitation (rain, snow, hail) and severe frosts are critical.

The Ministry of Transport and Communication is currently developing technological requirements to public entities responsible for road maintenance. The review of the road network performed by the Ministry shows that a complicated situation has to be faced with road maintenance in winter and frequent damage to road infrastructure caused by mudflows in spring.

As is known mountain ranges divide the territory of Tajikistan into three regions – northern, central and southern. These regions have isolated road networks connected by mountain pass sections. By climate conditions the regions differ from each other. Sub- mountain and mountain masses, where the largest amount of rain and snow is received, are of the greatest concern.


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To provide for the failure-free operation of roads adequate measures are necessary in winter to make traffic on 18 high-mountain pass sections ranging in height from 1028 to 4362 m uninterrupted and in spring to ensure safe descent of mudflows. Reliable and timely information on precipitation, its intensity and area of occurrence is therefore critical for road specialists during these periods.

The Ministry of Transport and Communication tried to link the amount of precipitation in winter with the need for road main-tenance machinery. The Tajikhydromet data on precipitation amount in Tajikistan for three months of 2007 (December, January, February) and for the whole of 2008 were used as a basis. Based on the data analysis regions of the country were classified by amount and periodicity of snow precipitation. As a result the regions were distributed into five categories.

Category Conditions Regions I Periodic snowfall, no icing, glaze and

avalanches. Bohtar, Pyanj, Kabadiyan, A.Jomi, J Rumi, Vakhsh, N.Husrav, Kumsangir, Jilikul, Huroson, Shahrituz, Dangara, Shurabad, Vose, Farhor, Temurmalik

II Periodic snowfall; icing, no avalanche-hazard

Vahdat, Rudaki, Shahrinav, Gissar, Tursunzade, Yavan, Hamadoni

III Periodic snowfall, icing, snow drifts Varzob, town of Rogun and surroundings, town of Nurek and surroundings, Baljuvan, Muminabad, B. Gafurov, Ganchi, Kanibadam, Spitamen, J. Rasul, Pyanjakent, Zafarabad, Matcha, Isfara, Asht

IV Periodic snowfall, icing, avalanches, snow drifts

Faizabad, Nurabad, Rasht, Hovaling, Istravshan, Gornaya Matcha, Murgab, Roshkala

V Heavy frequent snowfall, icing, snow drifts, avalanches

Tavildara, Tajikabad, Jirgital, Shahristan, Vanch, Darvoz, Ishkoshim, Shugnan, Aini, Yurushan

Source: Toirov, 2008b.

Table 3.3. Classification of Tajikistan regions by amount and periodicity of snow precipitation

Similarly mountain pass road sections were analyzed. In terms of snow control efforts the existing sections were included into the 3rd and 5th categories. Based on such zoning machinery and workforce standards were developed for road maintenance divi-sions.

Tajikhydromet is the main source of hydrometeorological information used by the road sector. The sector uses current (real-time) information, short range forecast (up to 3 days), climate information (generalized for 1-month periods), and EHH/HH warnings.

At present hydrometeorological information is delivered by telephone through the forecaster on duty and by the Internet/E- mail.

In general the format of information presented by Tajikhydromet was assessed as satisfactory. Textual form (descriptive informa-tion) of presentation was mentioned as a preferable option.

The expert assessed accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts and EHH/HH forecasts and warnings including information on the area to be affected and EHH/HH duration, as satisfactory.

According to the expert for the time being forecast reliability/accuracy is satisfactory for atmospheric precipitation, ground frosts, floods and mudflows.

The expert believes that better lead time of meteorological and hydrological information, forecasts and warnings will enable timely management decisions on protective measures to be taken. For example, 1-day lead time meteorological forecasts will allow for adequate anti-skid material loading and machinery fuel filling and 1-week lead time forecasts will allow for adequate preparation of machinery and workforce.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the efficient operation of the road sector: temperature (daily minimum and maximum), precipitation (rain, hail, snow) and its duration and intensity; wind speed (including wind gust speed), visibility and hydrometeorological hazards (floods, mudflows, etc).

The current efficiency of the use of hydrometeorological information in the road sector was assessed as satisfactory. Accounting of damage from EHHs/HHs is maintained, but in monetary terms benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information are not estimated.

In addition to information given in the questionnaire, during the consultation workshop on Improving Weather Forecast Ef-ficiency in the Tajik Republic the expert provided proposals on the improvement of hydrometeorological services delivered by Tajikhydromet from the perspective of the road sector.

A detailed analysis of initial hydrometeorological data and products made by the Ministry of Transport and Communications showed that initial data collection and methods of forecasting should be improved taking into account specific requirements of the


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sector. For example, road specialists need information on expected precipitation across all regions where automobile roads are available. Currently meteorological stations are installed not on every mountain pass road section. Improvement of the observation network (restoration and re-equipment of stations) on every highland road section will allow for timely actions to mitigate snowfall impacts and to provide for safe and reliable road traffic.

According to the expert target oriented workshops attended by sector experts are important to improve interactions between Tajikhydromet and its users.

3.3 EVALUATION OF SECTOR NEEDS AND NMHS CAPACITY

The results of the survey, consultations with the NMHS staff and sector experts, and discussion of weather-dependent sectors’ demand for hydrometeorological information at the consultation workshop on Improving Weather Forecast Efficiency in the Tajik Republic (Dushanbe, 27 November, 2008) demonstrated that the urgent need in improving hydrometeorological service delivery was well understood by both Tajikhydromet (the provider of products and services) and all key users.

Many users need information that Tajikhydromet, regrettably, cannot provide. It is necessary to acknowledge that observa-tion networks, communication systems, forecast and warning systems and specialized hydrometeorological services provided by Tajikhydromet to sectors of the economy do not meet modern requirements and their state can be assessed as “very bad” or even “near-crisis”. A systematic problem of the NMHS lies in its unsatisfactory technical and technological capacity caused by chronic underfunding, including almost zero capital investments. More that 80% of basic measuring instruments are worn out. Metrological and scientific guidance support virtually is not provided. The hydrometeorological data fund of Tajikhydromet is in a crisis situation.

The most important weather-dependent users gave priority to the following types of data and products: discharge/runoff, pre-cipitation and air temperature forecasts, including long range runoff forecasts (1 month, 3 months, vegetation period); mid-range, long-range, short-range and monthly precipitation and air temperature forecasts; real-time (current) discharge/runoff, precipita-tion and air temperature and current snow cover data; historical discharge/runoff, precipitation and air temperature data.

All sector experts highlighted high importance of forecasts and other information products provided by Tajikhydromet for both timely management decisions on protective measures and most efficient operation. At the same time users understand that there are serious problems related to the unsatisfactory technical and technological capacity of Tajikhydromet and its inadequate interaction with users leading to low quality of hydrometeorological services and significant economic losses. With this in view the moderniza-tion of Tajikhydromet is seen as timely and critically needed.

Sector experts also pointed out several problems complicating the effective use of hydrometeorological services. They relate to the lack of guidance documents (guides, manuals, recommendations) on how to use services and information provided by Tajikhy-dromet; lack of basic skills in using hydrometeorological data to gain economic benefits/reduce probable damage (to take timely and relevant management decisions to facilitating damage reduction); limited possibilities to effectively use hydrometeorological data without the assistance of professional hydrometeorologists.

Participants of the consultation workshop mentioned that sector experts should be involved in the detailed study of moderniza-tion options and components. It is necessary to strengthen interactions between Tajikhydromet and users on the basis of the efficient feedback system. Basic principles and mechanisms of interactions with different groups of users should be developed to regulate the delivery of data and products on a commercial basis.

The interest of users to the cooperation with Tajikhydromet and their support to its modernization are hampered by the lack of practice and methodology to assess economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information. The following could contribute to the solution of this problem:

• a special section of the Tajikhydromet web-site containing information on unfavorable weather impact on various sectors of the economy and population (guidance materials, recommendations, international experience), • target oriented consultation meetings with users on estimating additional sector-specific benefits from hydrometeorological services gained currently and expected after modernization, • joint consultation and training workshops on how to use new hydrometeorological information and forecasts. Such work-shops will make it possible to share experience and develop common requirements to new types of information products, forecast accuracy and lead time, information presentation formats, etc. This in turn will allow the NMHS staff to establish relations with users on the basis of new principles.Sector experts noted that they were not only interested in development and modernization of the NMHS, but also willing to

receive and use better forecasts and new types of information products based on modern hydrometeorological data and product presentation and access technologies.


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CHAPTER 4. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF IMPROVEMENT

OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SEVICE DELIVERY

4.1. GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUNDS OF ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

The economic assessment carried out under this study sought to estimate the potential aggregate benefits that accrue to busi-ness activities in the country from the improved quality (accuracy and timeliness) of the hydrometeorological information and services delivered by Tajikhydromet following its modernization. The benefits associated with the economic value of hydrometeo-rological information for the household sector and improvement of human life safety were not assessed.

The assessment approaches envisage generalization and calculation of country wide losses from EHHs and HHs and estima-tion of possible variation of the share and absolute amount of incremental effects (benefits in terms of potentially avoided losses) due to more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information and forecasts as a result of modernization program. It was as-sumed that benefits of modernization will be realized during 7 years (implementation of the Program and effective operation of the new technologies, hardware and equipment, as well as the NMHS fixed assets at the post implementation stage). Therefore, the potential returns on modernization investments were calculated by comparing aggregate amount of incremental benefits during the 7-year period and the program’s costs.

Two scenarios of modernization were proposed19 : The base large-investment scenario (estimated cost is USD 6.079 million in prices of 2006) is oriented to implement a sizable

program of actions on strengthening and technical upgrading of the National Hydrometeorological Service. The alternate minimum scenario (estimated cost is USD 1.32 million in prices of 2006) envisages implementation of a limited list

of activities aimed at maintaining the available Tajikhydromet capacity, ensuring its institutional, staff and financial sustainability, and strengthening cooperation with users.

The moderate investment scenario (USD 6.079 million) option is offered as the basic option in the assessment of economic benefits of investing in the Tajikhydromet modernization. It is expected that the basic option will be implemented within 3 to 5 years.

Economic losses were generalized and estimated on the basis of three independent approaches, namely meteorological risks assessment, benchmarking method and sector-specific assessment.

There are a number of complexities in the assessment of economic benefits for Tajikistan similar to that observed in the other countries of ECA region where the team has undertaken economic review of weather-related damages. The main concern is the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses (both in physical and value terms) incurred by the economy, its sectors and population from the entire range of EHHs and HHs. Thus it was necessary to apply several complementary approaches to double check data and ensure the integrity of the results.

The economic efficacy of investing in the Tajikhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmarking and sector-specific assessment methods. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the sector-specific assessments.

Sector-approaches was developed and applied during preparation of the National Hydromet Modernization project in Rus-sia (World Bank, 2004). Benchmarking approach was employed through developing approaches of economic assessment for a sample of national meteorological and hydrological service modernization initiatives in Europe and Central Asia (World Bank, 2008c). Proposed approaches are far from being perfect and intended to estimate potential benefits of modernization under con-ditions of highly scarce and unreliable data.

4.2. APPROACHES USED FOR ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

4.2.1. BENCHMARKING METHOD

When preparing information for the assessment of economic benefits no statistical data on the value of damage caused by hydrometeorological hazards was available from the official sources of statistics (at the national level, in the ministries, agencies and in Tajikhydromet). In order to obtain the corresponding information special consultations with Tajikhydromet specialists and experts of the weather-dependent sectors were conducted.

The initial assessment of economic benefits was based on the benchmarking method developed in the course of the regional review of the ECA national hydrometeorological services (Tsirkunov V. et al, 2008c). This review was carried by the World Bank in 2005-2007 for the countries of Southern Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia), some Balkan countries (Albania and Ser-bia), as well as for the Republic of Belarus, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Most of these countries do not record data on the actual total and sector-specific economic losses caused by hydrometeorological hazards and unfavorable weather conditions.

19 Justification and description of the proposed scenarios of modernization are given in Chapter 5.


63

Benchmarking was developed to estimate economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information and services for the national economy. The assessment was based on (i) available national official macroeconomic and sector-specific statistics; (ii) weather-dependence of the economy; (iii) vulnerability of the country’s territory to weather hazards20; (iv) the NMHS status and the quality of hydrometeorological service provision in a given surveyed country, and (v) the values of the key parameters obtained through the surveys of experts and studies carried out in other countries.

Benchmarking is a simplified method, and it does not require detailed analytical studies or time consuming surveys. Despite the limitations in the application of this method, its findings provide a reasonable benchmark to identify the levels of direct economic losses from weather hazards and disasters, as well as the economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information in a specific country. A detailed description of the benchmarking approach, including its main assumptions and limitations, is given in Tsirkunov V. et al, 2006).

Benchmarking comprises a staged approach. The first stage defines the average values of two key parameters, which are adjusted against the GDP of the country. These

key parameters are: The level of annual direct economic losses caused by hydrometeorological hazards as a share of GDP21; The level of annual prevented losses (i.e. losses that are potentially avoided due to the use of improved weather forecasts

and warnings as a result of modernization) expressed as a percentage of the total losses22;In the second stage, the benchmarks are adjusted following assessment of the key country-specific parameters (weather and

climate conditions, structure of economy, NMHS status, and so on). Finally, the estimates obtained for a country are used for calculating the marginal efficacy of the potential improvement of

hydrometeorological services following the proposed modernization program.

4.2.2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT

The assessment of the economic efficacy of the NMHS modernization is based on comparing the amount of potentially pre-ventable losses with the required expenditures on the prevention of these losses and planned expenditures on the modernization of NMHS. With this approach the economic efficacy the NMHS modernization is calculated as a ratio of the potential effect to the planned expenditures on the modernization. The potential effect is expressed as the additional prevented losses from weather hazards expected due to the improved timeliness and quality of forecasts and warnings with the deduction of expenditures needed to produce these forecasts and warnings.

This assessment method is based on sector studies for the most important (as a share of GDP) weather-dependant sectors of the national economy. The sector studies calculate the following two key parameters (more details on the method assumptions and sample questionnaires can be found in Tsirkunov et al, 2006)

The potential preventable losses as percentage of the total losses, which could be avoided through modernization (multiplica-tion of two ratios: R

i•S

i), where R

i is a percentage of the possible preventable losses with the current quality of hydrometeorologi-

cal forecasts (i.e. prior to modernization), and Si is the percentage of the possible preventable losses that would accrue due to

improved hydrometeorological services; Percentage of the changes in the level of expenditures on preventive (protective) measures as a result of more accurate and

timely hydrometeorological information and services (∆i).

The findings of the sector experts’ assessments can be divided into two main groups: (i) general information concerning the scope and quality of the hydrometeorological information used, as well as the level of the losses incurred due to weather hazards; and (ii) assessment of the key ratios (key parameters) required to assess the economic benefits from the NMHS modernization.

The key parameters are assessed in two stages. The first stage includes an expert assessment of these parameters for specific sectors. As the basic parameters (R

i and S

i) are

determined using expert assessments, it would be expedient to perform a scenario analysis, that is, to use a few (rather than one) values of a coefficient within a certain range. The extreme values of the coefficients shall be used for the best and worst (most un-likely) cases and the mean value shall be used for the base (most likely) case.

At the second stage, the base case mean estimate is used to calculate the mean values of basic coefficients required for a comprehensive assessment of the economic efficacy of the NMHS modernization.

20 The vulnerability of the territory to weather hazards was assessed as a function of the observed extreme and threshold values of major meteorological param-eters, among which temperature (minimum and maximum), precipitation and wind, considered with characteristics of their statistical distributions.21 The average annual values of losses from hydrometeorological hazards are assumed to be 0.45% of GDP. The range of annual losses is assumed to be from 0.1 to 1.0 % of GDP. There is no comprehensive data base on this important parameter, the estimates available in the literature vary from less than 0.1% to over 5% of GDP. 22 The level of average annual prevented losses – as a percentage of total losses –40% (range – from 20 to 60 %). Weather-dependence of the economy means the aggregate share of the weather-dependent sectors in GDP, with the year average value of 50%. Share of agriculture in GDP: the mean annual value –15%;Weather vulnerability: the mean value is “average”. The status of NMHS service delivery and hydrometeorological information provisions: the mean value –“satisfactory”.


64

On the basis of statistical data or expert assessments of economic losses from weather, the mean values of basic coefficients the potential effect and economic efficacy of the NMHS modernization are calculated respectively.

4.3. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF THE PROPOSED

TAJIKHYDROMET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

4.3.1. BENCHMARKING ASSESSMENT

Using information from Tajikhydromet, the study determined the key parameters required to calculate the marginal (least) eco-nomic effect of the hydrometeorological service provision with respect to the current status of the NMHS and after its proposed development and technical and technological modernization. The results of assessing such parameters are presented in Table 4.1.

The GDP share of the Tajikistan sectors, which are exposed to substantial negative impact of hydrometeorological hazards, is 61.4%. This rates the weather-dependence of the national economy as “relatively high” (see Section 1.3), and the agriculture’s

average annual input to national GDP (25%) is also rather high as compared to most of the countries that were reviewed in ECA region earlier. The survey of experts from Tajikhydromet showed that in Tajikistan, like in many other transition countries, the NMHS suffered heavily from the chronic massive under financing, which has resulted in gradual ageing and degradation (technical and technological) of the physical infrastructure of the service. Thus, for the purpose of this study, the status of NMHS and hydrome-teorological service provision was rated as “very poor”. The vulnerability of the country’s territory to weather hazards as whole was rated as “relatively high”. The mean annual GDP for the period 2000-2007 was assessed at USD2,33 million. The amount of average annual NMHS’s financing is about USD0.4 million for the same period, or 0.019% of the GDP indicator (Table 4.1). Table 4.2 presents the main results of assessing economic losses due to weather impacts and the marginal economic benefits from the use of the improved hydrometeorological information and services.

Preliminary efficacy assessments of hydrometeorological services provided by the NMHS, as estimated by the benchmarking method, indicated that the Tajik economy currently loses annually on average USD 25 million, or about TJS83 million (in the 2006

Indicators Value

Weather dependency of the economy, % 61.4%Share of agriculture in GDP, % 24.4%Status of NMHS and hydrometeorological service provision 1*

Vulnerability to weather hazards 2*Average annual GDP in 2000-2007 (USD million in the 2006 prices) 2 330

Average annual financing of NMHS in 2000-2007 (USD million in the 2006 prices)*** 0.4

*rank from 1 to 5 (from “very poor” to “”excellent”)**range variable ranking from 1 to 5 (from “low” to “high”)*** the proceeds from all budget sources, including specialized hydrometeorological.service provisions

Source: Tajikhydromet data and authors’ estimates

Table 4.1 Key Parameters for Benchmarking Assessment

Table 4.2 Main Results of Benchmarking Assessment (in 2006 prices)

Average annual losses incurred caused by weather hazards (USD million) 24.9

Average annual losses incurred (% of GDP) 1.04

Average annual preventable losses (USD million) 5.8

Average annual incremental benefits due to improvement of hydrometeorological information and services (USD million) 1.7

Investment effectiveness, % (across 7 years) 199

Source: Authors’ estimates


65

prices) due to weather-related damage. The absolute values of average annual preventable losses (about USD6 million) were obtained by assessing the prevented loss factor which, in the case of Tajikistan, was 0.20, i.e. lower than in Kyrgyzstan (0.29), and much lower than the mean prevented loss factor for Kazakhstan (0.33) and Turkmenistan (0.35). For more details see Korshunov A. (2008).

Annual incremental benefits for the national economy that would result from upgrading and developing the Tajikhydromet amount to USD1.7 million, or about TJS5.6 million in 2006 prices (it was assumed for assessment purposes that the current condi-tions would improve by two grades: from “very poor” to “adequate”). Thus, investment of USD6.3 million, which is estimated as sufficient for upgrading NMHS conditions to “adequate”, may pay off in less 4 years following modernization, while the effective-ness of such investment over 7 years may be around 200%.

4.3.2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT

According to the sector-specific assessment methodology, assessment of the economic efficacy of the Tajikistan’s NMHS mod-ernization included the determination of the following key parameters:

(i) The possible preventable losses as percentage of the total level of losses, which could be prevented through modernization (according to the methodology applied, this is the multiplication of two ratios: R

i•S

i);

(ii) Percentage of the avoided costs of the preventive (protective) measures as a result of more accurate and timely hydrome-teorological information (∆i).

The weather dependant sectors were identified through consultations with experts from Tajikhydromet. The experts from those sectors were invited to complete the survey. The pool of experts, who participated in the survey, represented the CoES, RT Ministry of Agriculture, RT Ministry of Melioration and Water resources Management, RT Ministry of Transport and Communications, elec-tric power sector (OJSC Barki Tajik). The survey was carried out with the assistance of specialists from Tajikhydromet.

ASSESSING KEY RATIOS FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN

The key parameters were calculated in two stages. At Stage I the experts evaluated these parameters for specific sectors of the economy under three scenarios to arrive at the interval evaluation of the parameters surveyed. Based on the average assess-ment (basic scenario), Stage II calculated the values of the key ratios to carry out the integral assessment of the economic benefits of the Tajikistan’s NMHS development program. The sector-specific assessments and the mean values of the key parameters are presented in Table 4.3.

Sector Ri S

i R

i·S

i

Agriculture23 0.020Water resources24 0.010Electricity sector25 0.425 0.2 0.085Transport (Road maintenance)26 0.775 0.175 0.136Mean ratio (1) for 4 sectors 0.084Committee of Emergency Situations27

0.775 0.075 0.058

Mean ratio (2), inc. CoES assessment

0.071

Note: For the agriculture, the estimate is given n the basis of minimal assessment by experts of other countries taking into account climate and weather conditions of Tajikistan;

Table 4.3 Assessing the Key Ratios for Basic Scenario (Changes of the Level

of Potential Preventable Losses from the Weather-related Damages Following

the Modernization Program)

23 Ormonov, Makmadi. 2008.24 Latipov, Rustam P. 2008a.25 Burkhanov, R. and Vazirbekova S. 2008a.26 Toirov, Tolibjon. 2008a. 27 Mirzokhonova, Natalia. and A. Shomakhmadov. 2008a.

For the water resources sector, the expert assesses the average value of the changes in the level of the possible preventable losses through the improvement of the accuracy and lead time of the forecasts


66

Thus, a percentage of the total losses, which could be prevented through modernization, was assessed in the range from 5.8% (CoES expert) to 13.6 % (expert from transport sector). The lowest ratio was used for the agriculture (1.5%), taking into account current difficult conditions in terms of agrotechnical and technological improvements potential and possibilities to use preventive measures in this sector. The incremental economy-wide benefits due to implementation of proposed modernization program are estimated further using two values of this indicator: mean value of ratio assessments by sectoral experts (8.4%), and mean value of assessment by CoES expert estimate (5.8%). The latter is applied to calculate the lower bound of potential incremental prevented losses.

The values obtained correspond with the sectoral assessments made under the similar studies in other ECA countries. In par-ticular, for Kyrgyzstan (Korshunov A., 2008), the value of this indicator is 7.5%, for Russia it is 8.4% (Tsirkunov V. et al, 2004).

MAIN RESULTS OF ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL

Economic benefits were assessed by the following formula: Е = (V•R•S–∆•C)/PC, (1)where V – average annual economic losses from EHHs and HHs, C – cost of protective measures, PC – cost of the Tajikhy-

dromet Development Program. According to the formula to calculate a share of economic losses E, which will be reduced through technical modernization

and development of Tajikhydromet, in addition to key parameters R•S and ∆, it is necessary to determine parameters V and C. It should be noted that sectoral experts did not estimate the cost of protective measures either for the economy of Tajikistan as a

whole or for specific sectors. However experts of CoES did estimate how and to what extent (with respect to current average level of expenditure for protective measures) improved accuracy and better lead time of hydrometeorological information will influence this expenditure. They came to the conclusion that the Tajikhydromet Development Program will allow the cost of protective mea-sures to be reduced by 15-40%. Experts from the Electric power sector also mentioned a possibility for cost reduction.

This, in particular, means that a share of changes in the level of expenditure for preventive (protective) measures resulted from improved accuracy and timeliness of hydrometeorological information will be negative for the economy as a whole: ∆ < 0. As a result the second component (∆•C) in formula (1) will make the first component to increase (V•R•S).

Since in this study a lower estimate of the Development Program economic efficiency is determined, it is proposed to bring formula (1) to the following form:

Е = V•R•S/PC, (2)To determine the average annual direct losses V suffered by the economy from EHHs and HHs we will take advantage of the

data provided by CoES. At present in Tajikistan accounting of economic losses suffered by the economy and human losses resulting from EHHs and

HHs is maintained by CoES and the State Committee for Statistics both affiliated to the Government of Tajikistan. Information on economic losses in 2000-2007 summarized in Table 1.4 on the basis of CoES official data (given in Annex 2).

The average annual direct economic losses calculated for the period of 2000-2007 at the national level resulted in the amount of TJS 153 million (or USD 46 million). This estimate counted the losses due to the extreme weather conditions in 2000/01, when the severe drought was recorded. This estimate can be even bigger if the losses attached to extreme cold 2008 winter will be taken into account.

Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Losses, at current prices, TJS million* 60.6 208.9 78.7 65.7 71.2 101.9 34.7At 2006 prices, TJS million 188.1 497.1 155.4 95.7 93.8 122.5 34.7 34.9At 2006 prices, USD million 57.0 150.7 47.1 29.0 28.4 37.1 10.5 10.6Average annual losses, TJS million (at prices of 2006)

152.8

Average annual losses, USD million (at prices of 2006)

46.3

Economic losses are given for emergences caused by the following events: floods, mudflows, avalanches, drought, wind, snowfall, rain and thunderstorm. If all events are taken into account, economic losses will be higher.

Source: Annex 2 and authors’ estimates

Table 4.4. Economic losses from meterological and hydrological emergencies (in national currency, average val-

ues are given in constant prices of 2000 and 2006)


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At the same time severe drought is rare in occurrence. The period of 2002-2007, when severe drought was not observed can be characterized in terms of EHH and HH occurrence and impact on the economy as more typical (the same approach was used in other countries, for example in Georgia). Average annual losses for 2002-2007 would be around TJS 90 million, or USD 27.4 million. This level of annual losses are in well correspondence with the estimates obtained through meteorological risk assessment (USD 29.8 million) and benchmarking assessment (USD 24.9 million). However the period of 2000-2007, when severe drought was taken into account in calculation of average annual losses, can be used as benchmark for the periods with extreme hydrologi-cal events and weather conditions.

The other assumption proposed for consideration, relates to the fact that CoES’s data do not take into account damages which become apparent after the emergency occurred or due to combination of HHs and unfavorable weather conditions. Data on indi-rect losses resulting, for example, in agriculture from reduced yield, quality of products, and lost profits (which can be much higher than 50% in crop production) is completely absent.

To fill this gap, it was suggested to introduce an adjustment factor by using the assessments that were carried out during ECA re-gional study in the Caucasian countries. For this purpose, the economic losses data obtained from NMHS specialists from Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, including those prepared on the basis of the official statistical data were used. For Georgia (the share of agriculture in GDP is 25%), the indirect economic losses/direct economic losses ratio was 0.45. For Armenia (with the share of agriculture in GDP is 30%), this ratio was 1.15, and for Azerbaijan (the share of agriculture in GDP is 12%), this ratio was 0.2428.

These data indicate that, given the role of agriculture in its GDP and the comparable climate and geographic/elevation specifics, Georgia is the most relevant benchmark for the Tajikistan. Thus, an conservative adjustment factor of 0.35 was used to calculate indirect losses which compound some additional USD9.6 million. In this case, the aggregate direct and indirect weather-related economic losses in Tajikistan could be as high as USD37 million, or TJS 122 million at 2006 prices (or 1.6% GDP). This estimates closely correlates with the results of the recent World Bank Country Environmental Analysis for Tajikistan (World bank, 2008d), where the total mean annual cost of natural disasters is estimated at 115 million TJS, or 1.6% of GDP in 2006. The inter-val of estimate in this study ranges from 33 to 200 million TJS per year.

To calculate E by formula (2) we will use the integrated direct and indirect annual economic losses. For lower bound estimate of potential incremental prevented losses the mean value ratio by CoES’s expert (5.8%) was proposed. The upper bound defined as mean value of ratio assessments by sectoral experts (8.4 %). Results of calculations are given in Table 4.5

From Table 4.5 it is seen that through the Tajikhydromet Development Program the economy of the country will have the incre-mental annual effect ranging from TJS7.3 to 10.2 million (or USD 2.2-3.1 million). Expecting that this incremental annual effect will be gained during 7 years (implementation and active operation of the Program) the overall potential benefits will range from TJS 51 to 72 million (or USD 16 to 22 million). It means that economic efficacy (economic efficiency) E of the Project (taking into ac-count that the cost of the Project is USD 6.079 in the same prices) will be 246-357%. In other words each dollar invested in mod-ernization of Tajikhydromet will yield a 2.5-3.6 dollar benefits to the economy of the country as a whole in terms of avoided losses.

ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF NMHS MODERNIZATION FOR SELECTED SECTORS

Implementation of the Tajikhydromet Development Programme will bring the incremental annual effect in the form of preserved tangible assets to different sectors of the economy. This effect depends not only on the extent to which a sector is weather-depen-dent, but also on the extent to which the Program is oriented to this sector. In other words this effect depends on demand of the sector for hydrometeorological information and information products, especially forecast related products.

Average annual economic

losses “V”

Share of prevented losses

through modernization

R*S, %

Annual incremental effect

(at 2006 prices)

Economic efficacy of the

Project “Е” (%)

TJS,122million (or USD37.0 million)

5.8 TJS 7.3 million (USD2.2 million)

246

8.4 TJS10.2 million (USD3.1 million)

357

Note: in 2006, the official rate of exchange was TJS3.3 /USD1.0

Source: Authors’ assessments

Table 4.5. Assessment of economic efficacy of the Tajikhydromet Development Program.

28 Tsirkunov, V., A. Korshunov, M. Smetanina, and S. Ulatov. 2006. Assessment of Economic Efficiency of Hydrometeorological Services in the Countries of the Caucasus Region. Report prepared as part of Weather/Climate Services pilot study in the countries of Europe and Central Asia.


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With this in view it seems reasonable to estimate the incremental annual effect that can be gained by weather-dependent sec-tors of the economy. For that assessment of experts will be used provided when filling in the questionnaire and during the missions’ meetings.

TRANSPORT SECTOR

To determine average annual direct losses V from EHHs and HHs for transport sector we will use data provided by the Road maintenance expert. Information on economic losses for 2003-2006 is presented in Table 4.6.

Using the assessment provided by the transport expert (see Table 4.3) on changes in the level of potential preventable losses from EHHs and HHs after implementation of the Program, by formula (2) we will have

Е1 = 6.2•0.136 = 0.84 USD million (or TJS2.9 million).

Here Е1 is the incremental annual effect for transport sector resulted from implementation of the Program.

Implementation of the Tajikhydromet Development Program can therefore bring to Road maintenance (transport sector) the annual incremental effect in the form of preserved tangible assets estimated at not less than 2.9 million somoni on the average.

ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

To determine average annual direct losses V from impact of EHHs and HHs on electric power sector (Barki Tajik) we will use data provided by the relevant experts. Economic losses for 2003-2007 were estimates at around TJS 4 million in prices of 2006. It means that average annual economic losses suffered by electric power sector can be estimated at TJS 0.8 million (or USD 0.3 million).

At the same time the assessment of changes in the level of potential preventable losses from EHHs and HHs (see Table 4.3) was 0.085. This assessment is based on the experts’ estimates. In this case following formula (2) we will have

Е1 = 0.3•0.085 = USD 0.03 million (or TJS 0.08 million).

Implementation of the Tajikhydromet Development Program can therefore bring to Electric power sector the annual incremental effect in the form of preserved tangible assets estimated at not less than TJS 0.1 million on the average.

AGRICULTURE

To determine average annual direct losses V from impact of EHHs and HHs in agriculture data from CoES and Ministry of Ag-riculture were used (see Annex 3 and references – Republic of Tajikistan. 2008). Table 4.7 gives summarized data on losses from EHHs and HHs for crop plantation and animal husbandry in 2000-2007.

Statistics for 2000-2007 is taken as an upper estimate of average annual losses in agriculture taking into account occurrence of 2000/01 severe drought in particular, resulting in significant economic losses for agriculture). It showed that the level of losses was TJS 111 million (or about USD34 million).

A lower estimate of average annual losses is based on the statistics for 2002-2007 – a period illustrating typical situation without extreme weather events. For this period annual average losses in agriculture were 4 times less, in particular TJS 25 million (or about USD7.5 million).

Using the assessment of changes in the level of potential preventable losses from EHHs and HHs after implementation of the Program (1.5%), based on expert estimates for agriculture of other countries with account of climate and weather conditions of Tajikistan, by formula (2) we will have:

2003 2004 2005 2006

Road construction and maintenance (Ministry of Transport), at current prices TJS million

8.8 17.2 19.3 16.9

at prices of 2006 TJS million 13.6 22.7. 23.7 22.5at prices of 2006 USD million 4.1 6.9 7.2 6.8Average annual losses, TJS million (at prices of 2006) 20.5Average annual losses, USD million (at prices of 2006) 6.2

Source: Toirov, 2008a and authors’ estimated

Table 4.6. Economic losses from meterological and hydrological emergencies for transport

sector (in national currency, average values are given in constant prices of 2000 and 2006)


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Е11

= 7.5*0.02 = USD 0.2 million (or TJS0.7 million).Е

12 = 34.0*0.02 = USD 0.7 million (or TJS2.3 million).

Implementation of the Tajikhydromet Development Program can therefore bring to agriculture the annual incremental effect in the form of prevented losses of crops or cattle estimated at not less than 0.7-2.3 million somoni.

It is reasonable to note that in agriculture the annual incremental effect (being high) appeared to be lower as compared to other sectors. It is due to the fact that assessment of changes in potentially preventable losses from EHHs and HHs after implementation of the Program is low. The low assessment is in turn explained by the fact that agriculture is the most weather-dependent sector exposed to impact of weather conditions, where it is not possible to suspend any production cycles for some period of time. Studies conducted in other countries show that protective measures taken in agriculture prevent less losses than in other sectors. In other words agriculture is most vulnerable to impact of the environment.

IRRIGATION AND WATER SUPPLY

Irrigation and water supply facilities include water pumping stations, hydraulic engineering structures, coast protection struc-tures, mudflow flumes, collector drainage systems, irrigation systems and channels and water and sewage systems.

To determine average annual direct losses V from impact of EHHs and HHs on water sector (operating activities) in Tajikistan we will use data provided by CoE. Full information on the size and cost of economic losses for 1997 – 9 months of 2008 are presented in Annex 8. Table 4.8 gives summarized data for the period of 2002-2006 illustrating typical situation without extreme weather events.

Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Losses, TJS million at current prices

Total

Including:

Damaged crops

Losses of cattle*

87.5

87.3

0.2

199.4

198.9

0.5

34.9

31.8

3.1

17.6

15.5

2.1

9.5

7.5

2.0

18.5

16.4

2.1

1.7

1.6

0.1

10.3

9.8

0.5

At 2006 prices, TJS million 271.4 475.0 68.9 27.1 12.5 22.3 1.7 10.3At 2006 prices, USD million 82.3 144.0 20.9 8.3 3.8 6.7 0.5 2.4Average annual losses, TJS million (at prices of 2006)

110.9

Average annual losses, USD million (at prices of 2006)

33.6

*Including economic losses suffered by farms, sheep barns and field camps

Source: Annex 3, and authors’’ estimates

Table 4.7. Economic losses from meteorological and hydrological emergencies for agriculture

Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Losses,

TJS million at current prices1.3 4.6 18.9 23.7 28.7 42.8 20.8 21.8

At 2006 prices, TJS million 4.03 10.96 37.31 36.55 37.79 51.47 20.80 17.05At 2006 prices, USD million 1.22 3.32 11.31 11.08 11.46 15.60 6.31 5.17Average annual losses,

TJS million (at prices of 2006)

27.0

Average annual losses,

USD million (at prices of 2006)

8.2

Source: Annex 3, and authors’’ estimates

Table 4.8. Economic losses from meteorological and hydrological emergencies for Water Sector –

irrigation and water supply


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Taking into account that agriculture in Tajikistan is largely irrigated lack of water in rivers (low flow) appears to be a significant factor of the meteorological risk. It has a significant impact on water supply too. With this in view to calculate the economic effect from the Modernization Program for water sector the interval estimate of average annual losses will be used as in case of agricul-ture. Average losses for the period of 2000-2007 (with severe drought) and or the period 2002-2007 (without severe drought) will be estimated. Average annual economic losses (in prices of 2006) from EHHs and HHs for irrigation and water supply as-sessed on the basis of data of CoES and estimates of irrigation and water supply experts appeared to be in interval of TJS27 34 million or USD 8 10 million.

To assess changes in the level of potential preventable losses from EHHs and HHs after implementation of the Tajikhydromet Development Program similar assumptions were used based on expert estimates for water sector in other countries with account of climate and weather conditions of Tajikistan. Assessments for other countries are as follows: Russian Federation 0.075, Georgia – 0.106, Azerbaijan – 0.07.

Taking into account assessments for other countries and confirmation from the sectoral expert, for Tajikistan the assessment of changes in the level of potentially preventable losses from EHHs and HHs after implementation of the Tajikistan Development Programme was determined to be 0.1 (10%). In this case following formula (2) we will have:

Е11

= 8.2•0.1 = USD 0.8 million (or TJS2.7 million).Е

12 = 10.0•0.1 = USD 1.0 million (or TJS3.3 million).

Implementation of the Tajikhydromet Development Program can therefore bring to water sector the annual incremental effect in the form of preserved tangible assets is estimated at not less than 2.7-3.3 million somoni.

Total potential effect for four studied sectors is in the range of TJS 6.5-8.7 million which is well correlated with the estimate of overall expected benefits TJS 7.3 – 10.2 million

4.4. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS OF NMHS’S MODERNIZATION

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

Assessment of the economic benefits from improved weather service delivery to Tajikistan economy and population as a result of NMHS modernization used three methods: “meteorological risk assessment”, “method of sector-specific assessment”, “bench-marking approach”. Insufficient and often inconsistent records of economic losses/damage (both in physical and value terms) caused by the complete spectrum of hydrometeorological phenomena was the main challenge in the economic assessment.

All assessments indicated that significant economic benefits in Tajikistan can be realized from the use of improved hydrome-teorological information and services. The investments in the NMHS modernization would yield significant benefits, with relatively high potential returns on investments.

The results of benchmarking assessment showed that the total average annual amount of direct damage, associated with hy-drometeorological hazards, was not less than USD25 million (1.04% of the average annual GDP in 2000-2007).

Economic assessments of the impact of meteorological risks of major weather hazards on the national economy were per-formed on the basis of available information on the average annual recurrence and damage per event (for mudflows, floods, ava-lanches, rainstorms, hailing, windstorms, snowfalls, droughts and frosts). The resulting average annual weather-related economic damage was estimated to be TJS98 million, or USD30 million (1.3% of the average annual GDP in 2000-2007).

According to the sector-specific assessment using official data from CoES and estimates of potential indirect losses, average annual economic losses from EHHs and HHs were evaluated in TJS 122 million, or USD37 million (1.6% of GDP).

Potential annual economic benefits from the implementation of the proposed Modernization Program (it was assumed for as-sessment purposes that the current conditions would improve by two grades: from “very poor” to “adequate”) range from USD1.7 million (“benchmarking” assessment) to USD3.1 million (upper bound of “sector-specific” assessment) per year. Assuming that this annual economic effect is sustainable; within 7 years of implementation, the total benefits of Program implementation will equal from USD12 million to USD22 million. Economic efficacy of investments in Program implementation (USD6.1 million) will vary from 200% to 360%, respectively, or, in other words, each dollar spent on Tajikhydromet modernization may yield at least USD2.0-3.6 of benefits as a result of avoided damage.

Sector-specific assessments conducted for selected economic sectors (transport, agriculture, irrigation and water supply, and electricity production, which together produce about 2/3 of the GDP generated by key weather-dependant economic activities of Tajikistan economy), based on experts’ data and assumptions, showed that aggregated annual benefits for those segments of the economy totally could be in interval of USD 1.9-2.6 million.

Cost benefit analysis, using data on average annual losses obtained by sector-specific assessments, also supported the eco-nomic feasibility of Program implementation. The cost-benefit ratio was 2.2, and discounted payback period was estimated as 5 years.

When analyzing results obtained by these methods, one should take into account that these methods allow estimating not only direct benefits (benchmarking method) largely expressed as reduced losses from hydrometeorological hazards (direct economic


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losses), but also the total benefits (sector-specific-assessments) relating to both direct and indirect losses and that the approach gave a lower-bound estimate of all indicators.

These estimates do not take into account incremental socioeconomic benefits associated with better performance by the house-hold sector. Therefore, the obtained value may be considered a “lower bound”: actual economic benefits may be much larger.

To improve systematic accounting of economic losses suffered by the Tajik economy and population from the entire range of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena, it would be desirable:

• To intensify efforts to develop and improve sector-specific methodologies for calculating economic benefits from (economic efficiency of) the use of hydrometeorological information and systematization of collected data on economic losses both from specific weather hazards across the national economy (‘natural’ integration of losses) and on a sector-specific basis (‘sec-toral’ integration of losses through the summation of sector-specific losses caused by all types of HH); • To elaborate basic principles and mechanisms of interaction with entities in major weather-dependent sectors in order to develop and improve the range of standard and specialized hydrometeorological products and services promoting, and there after grounding on the estimates of weather hazards related damage (losses), potentially preventable due to the use of the improved hydrometeorological information in specific sectors; and • To conduct expert assessments of NMHS modernization efficacy for specific regions and the most significant weather-dependent sectors in the regions, taking into account the country’s diversity of regional climatic and economic conditions.


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CHAPTER 5. HOW TO IMPROVE WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICE

DELIVERY IN THE TAJIK REPUBLIC

5.1. POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT

(MODERNIZATION PROPOSAL)

Long-term planning is an important instrument of the NMHS development strategy, and should include policy goals of NMHS activities as adopted by the 15-th WMO Congress, as well as specific tasks and objectives pertaining to meteorological support of the national needs.

The NMHS developed the 2007-2016 Program of Reconstruction of Hydrometeorological Observational Sites that was ap-proved by the TR Government. The Program includes the following objectives:

• Restore the hydrometeorological network;• Improve the quality of hydrometeorological services, ensure adequate fulfillment of obligations in the area of hydrometeo-rology as specified by the international agreements that the Republic of Tajikistan is party to;• Develop the system of techniques to forecast EHH (mudflows, rainstorms, avalanches, hail, flooding, strong wind, droughts, etc.) causing natural disasters, and improve the system of advance warnings about such events;• Improve the quality and coverage of hydrometeorological information services provided to the population;• Improve the system of climate and climate change observations and assessment; integrate into the Global Climate Observ-ing System (GCOS) and Global Land Observation System – Hydrology (GLOS H).The Program reflects the current state of the Hydrometeorological Service, defines the objectives and implementation mecha-

nisms, and includes a specific action plan. Decision of the RT Government on financing arrangements for the Program will promote technical upgrading of the NMHS, and allow the Service to work more efficiently towards ensuring hydrometeorological security of Tajikistan.

According to Tajikhydromet, implementation of the Program will enable to establish hydrometeorological, climate and environ-mental monitoring systems responsive to the needs of the country and meeting the international standards.

The main emphasis in the Program is made on the restoration of hydrometeorological network, environmental monitoring system and expedition activities based on the procurement of traditional meteorological and hydrological measurement devices that require no additional skills from the NMHS personnel; therefore, the outcomes of Program implementation could be viewed as the recovery of NMHS capacity. The modern level of hydrometeorological services would hardly be achieved. Unfortunately, the Program pays insufficient attention to the modernization (creation) of telecommunications facilities and institutional strengthen-ing of the NMHS, including the system of services provided to users, and staff retraining and professional upgrading. In view of this, it seems highly difficult to ensure sustainability of the capacity achieved by the implementation of assistance projects and the aforementioned Program.

The existing system of hydrometeorological monitoring, EHH and HH occurrence analysis and forecasting fails to meet the requirements for EHH risk and damage reduction. Analyses and forecasts of hazardous hydrological and meteorological events are incomprehensive and inadequate resulting in inefficient response measures. Communication with regional centers and obser-vational sites is unstable due to deterioration of technical facilities, and sometimes nonexistent, which results in untimely reporting of observational data to forecasting units, lower quality of forecasts and warnings, and, as a consequence, delays in response measures. This is especially true with respect to poor and remote localities that are often limited even in the opportunity to request assistance.

Recommendation on the technical upgrading of the NMHS developed under this study are based on (i) review of the current status of EHH and HH detection and forecasting, and provision of relevant warnings to the population and national economy; (ii) Tajikistan obligations under international and interstate agreements; (iii) results of ongoing international assistance projects; (iv) the needs of the economy for hydrometeorological services, (v) the growing need for dedicated climate services; (vi) review of the current status of the NMHS, the 2007-2016 Program of Reconstruction of Hydrometeorological Observational Sites, and capac-ity to ensure the functioning of the system.

NMHS modernization is primarily aimed at reducing the risks to human life and potential damage to Tajikistan economy as a result of weather and climate events, and fulfillment of NMHS regional and international obligations, first and foremost, assessment of water resources, improvement of cooperation between the NMHS and final users of hydrometeorological data and information products, and maintenance of the NMHS capacity through improving its institutional, staff and financial sustainability.

Performance indicators of the proposed modernization project include maintenance of the NMHS capacity through improv-ing its institutional, staff and financial sustainability; transition to an improved model of operations; provision of users with reliable hydrometeorological data and forecasts with the overall aim of assisting them in making informed decisions on water management at the national and regional levels; at least a 10-fold increase in the amount of meteorological data and products obtained from various sources; improved quality and reliability of measured meteorological and hydrological parameters (river flow/runoff);


73

ensuring operational collection of observational data from 90% of Tajikhydromet stations and observation sites.The lack of adequate efforts to ensure institutional and financial sustainability of the NMHS (including the results achieved un-

der the pervious international assistance programs), as well as fundamental changes in the cooperation between the NMHS as the main producer/provider of hydrometeorological data and information products, and major users of such information (ministries and agencies responsible for water management, environmental protection and agriculture, power sector, emergency situations, transport, RBMO and ICCW), on the one hand, bears significant risks to future investments in Tajikhydromet infrastructure, and, on the other hand, would in the near future undermine the NMHS capacity. This, in turn will lead to lower quality of produced information and forecasts (at least, by 10-15% for 3-5 years), reduced scope of observations at stations and gauges (up to 30% of the observational network), downsizing of the observational network, significant difficulties in the fulfillment of international and regional obligations, loss of investments and achievements of assistance projects, and increasing economic losses both in terms of water management efficiency, and damage caused by extreme and hazardous meteorological events.

Obviously, it is impossible to ensure sustainable infrastructure investments without strengthening the institutional, staff and fi-nancial capacity of the NMHS. To facilitate the transition to a new model of operations, a set of capacity-building activities need to be implemented, including the improvement of special-purpose hydrometeorological services provided to users, establishing incentives for NMHS specialists, staff training, and cooperation with international and national hydrometeorological institutions. The combination of relevant activities, including the strengthening of the NMHS technological base, will hopefully enable to ad-dress the creation of a new sustainable model of Tajikhydromet operations.

In is also required to improve the methods of producing both general forecasts for public authorities and communities, and special-purpose forecasts for special user categories; establish conditions of cooperation between HMC and regional administra-tions with clearly specified list of and requirements to NMHS products to meet the needs of regional administrations, agricultural and industrial enterprises, and arrangements for NMHS (HMC) support, including the financing of operational costs.

With the relevant regulatory and legal framework in place, the opportunities to enhance the cost-effectiveness of services pro-vided by Tajikhydromet to economic entities could be used as an argument in discussions on the appropriate level of budget financ-ing and cost of services sufficient both to support operational and production activities, and implement a reinvestment program.

5.1.1 RECOMMENDATIONS ON STRENGTHENING AND TECHNICAL UPGRADING

OF TAJIKHYDROMET

Two options for the modernization were considered. The first provides a modernization of observing network and new service capabilities. The second is a low cost option aimed at temporal stabilizing the current service and avoiding further deterioration.

Annex 7 list the details and estimated costs of the Tajikhydromet modernization for each of the two optionsA large-scale technical and institution modernization of Tajikhydromet is proposed to deliver more accurate and longer lead

time forecasts and improved staff skills. Improved communication, data collection and presentation technologies will provide a better hydrometeorological service delivery system, will make it possible to:

• Achieve the key objective of modernization, i.e. reduce the risk to life and damage to the economy caused by weather and climate-related events and disasters; • Fulfill regional and international obligations of Tajikistan;• Fill the gap between increasing demands of the Government for hydrometeorological information and capabilities of Tajik-hydromet to deliver the required information and information products; • Achieve a “satisfactory” level of Tajikhydromet in terms of technology (compared with the general technological level of NMHSs of WMO Member States). The following describes the proposed modernization elements for both Option 1 and Option 2. The elements that differ are

clearly identified.

LARGE SCALE PROGRAM OF ACTIONS ON STRENGTHENING AND TECHNICAL UPGRADING

OF TAJIKHYDROMET (OPTION 1)

There are three main activities or components in modernization programs which include (i) Technical Design of the Modernized System; (ii) Improvement of the System of Hydrometeorological Monitoring to Provide Timely Warnings of Extreme and Hazard-ous Weather Events and to Manage Water Resources and (iii) Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building of Tajikhydromet.

Option Cost

Comprehensive modernization of observing system and services 6.09Low cost option designed to prevent further deterioration of the service 1.39

Table 5.1 Modernization Options (in USD million)


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COMPONENT A. TECHNICAL DESIGN OF THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING

AND TELE-COMMUNICATION SYSTEM

The level of details provided in the modernization options proposed below is comparable with the level of pre feasibility study. More detailed work on the technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system is needed which ideally should be based on the overall concept of the Tajikhydromet development. Technical solutions should be based on the comprehensive review of Tajikhydromet and the existing international experience gained in establishing such systems, which are adapted to the particular circumstances and capabilities of each country in order to ensure a sustainable solution. Technical specifications and main tender documents for procurement are expected to be developed under this component. It is important to ensure compatibility of all technical devises and system. This component includes:

• Developing the concept of Tajikhydromet development• Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system• Development of technical specifications and main tender documents

COMPONENT B. IMPROVE THE SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING TO PROVIDE TIMELY

WARNINGS OF EXTREME DISASTERS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS

AND TO MANAGE WATER RESOURCES

Improving the system of hydrometeorological monitoring will enable the NMHS to provide timely warnings to agencies respon-sible for reducing and preventing damage to the economy and population caused by natural weather events. Mitigation of their consequences and better emergency preparedness is an important component of the modernization program. Improvement of the hydrological observing and forecasting systems is also essential for efficient national water resources management and to fulfill Tajikistan’s obligations under international agreements. Within this component the following is proposed:

B1. TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF THE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK

The objective of this component is to restore the meteorological network and key observational sites of the hydrological and avalanche networks. This includes reliable atmospheric measurements and providing efficient and timely transmission of observa-

Main components Subcomponents and activitiesEstimates cost (USD 1000)

A.Technical design A. Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system

400

B. Improve the system of hydrometeorological monitoring to provide

timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and to

manage water resources

B1. Technical upgrading of the observational network 3450Technical upgrading of hydrological gauges 950

Restoration and technical upgrading of the meteorological observational network

975

Introduce automatic snow survey systems 375

Modernize meteorological radars 800

Improve quality and reliability of measurements 350

B2. Strengthen the IT base of Tajikhydromet 1125Introduce modern communication facilities and technologies of data reception and processing

585

Creation of data base management system and archives, data digitizing, storage, printing and dissemination of information products

540

C. Institutional strengthening and capacity building

C1. Enhance service delivery 660

C2. Staff training and professional upgrading 455

Table 5.2 Basic Modernization Option


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tional data. Observations form the basis of daily and long range forecasts for the country and for specific regions and areas. They are also used to issue storm warnings and alerts of extreme and hazardous weather in order to take timely measures across all sectors of society and the economy. This component includes:

TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF THE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK

The objective is to restore meteorological and hydrological observational networks, ensure efficient and timely transmission of observational results. Implementation of these activities will help to meet the needs of the national economy and users in reliable hydrometeorological data, and fulfill the national and international obligations on the exchange of information on current hydro-meteorological conditions within the country. These data are, first of all, essential for the assessment and management of water resources.

Modernization of the hydrological network should be accompanied by carefully designed (with due regard for the available experience and local specifics) upgrading of the data collection system through establishing data collection centers at HMC, and re-equipment of cluster radio stations, as well as the provision of NMHS measurement units with calibration facilities for the verifi-cation of hydrological measurement devices.

Development of the agrometeorological network requires involvement of funds from the Ministry of Agriculture, and from local agricultural enterprises – major users of such information.

Collection of high-quality data will form the basis for producing reliable forecasts at the regional and local levels, and ensure timely detection and forecasting of adverse and hazardous weather events.

Reconstruction and rehabilitation of office and residential buildings, hydrological facilities at meteorological stations and hy-drological gauges proposed for re-equipment is to be performed by the NMHS as part of the national program implementation.

RESTORATION AND TECHNICAL UPGRADE OF THE METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK

• Equipment of 40 meteorological stations and aviation meteorological stations included in the basic network of WMO Regional Association II (RBCN 2), involved in data exchange under other interstate agreements and ensuring air operations safety, with standard measuring devices, and communication and power supply facilities. • Provide all stations with standalone power supply facilities, which should primarily use renewable energy sources (solar accumulators, and wind generators for 8 mountain stations). Improvements for 18 inaccessible and high mountain stations should provide for power supply for domestic needs. High mountain stations should be also provided with snow survey instru-ments and equipment.• Introduction of 7 automatic meteorological stations at previously closed ground based meteorological stations and in remote access areas. Modernization of communication facilities at 7 previously installed AMS. • Establish cluster radio stations on the basis of some hydrometeorological stations. • Modernize 2 meteorological radars (MRL 5) • Procurement of cross-country vehicles (at least 5) to support agrometeorological observations, snow surveys and the op-eration of inaccessible and mountain stations.

RENEW KEY OBSERVATION SITES OF THE HYDROLOGICAL NETWORK, AND EQUIP OPERATING POSTS WITH

ADDITIONAL INSTRUMENTS AND DEVICES

This sub component aims to improve the operating capacity of the existing hydrological network by upgrading of hydrological gauges not included in the Swiss assistance program to ensure hydrological (water flow) and hydrochemical water monitoring:

• Equipment of 40 hydrological gauges with standard measurement devices, hydrological instruments and communication facilities;• Equipment of hydrological gauges located at river sections adjacent to the national frontier with stationary Restore the snow avalanche observation network • 10 Doppler profile recorders to allow highly accurate water flow measurements; • Introduction of 5 automatic snow survey systems to measure snow depth and water content in areas of Vakhsh and Pyanj River runoff formation.

ESTABLISH QUALITY CONTROL OF HYDROMET DATA AND PRODUCTS

• Procure stationary calibration systems for the checking of measurement devices to ensure accurate and reliable input infor-mation for the NMHS Measurement Device Center (Dushanbe). • Establish a rotating pool (20% of meteorological and hydrological meters and controllers) and spare parts stock to ensure reliable continuous operation of the installed automatic systems for at least 5 years.


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B2. STRENGTHEN THE IT BASE OF Tajikhydromet

This subcomponent aims to establish a modern software-hardware environment, which provides efficient and timely collection of data from the observational network and receives and processes information products from leading international meteorological centers. This in turn will enable better quality and longer lead time of storm warnings and forecasts and as result improve the qual-ity of hydrometeorological services delivered to authorities, Ministry of Emergencies, Ministry of Agriculture, water management, processing industry and other users. Within this component, data storage for paper records is planned. This includes providing reliable temperature-humidity conditions, equipment to read and scan information, disk storage servers, virtual tape servers with tape drives and the required disk space.

Improving the forms and methods of production and presentation of both general forecasts for public authorities and communi-ties, and special-purpose forecasts for special user categories is an important factor of project success. Efforts should be continued to expand the number of river basins where automated SRM-based water flow forecasting technologies are in place. Tajikhy-dromet must provide data in a standard user friendly format in compliance with the existing standards. To this end, it is required to review the procedures for data and information product presentation, and implement institutional and technological strengthening of the NMHS Headquarters and HMC.

TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA RECEIVING SYSTEMS

• Introduce modern communication facilities and technologies of data reception and processing used by the leading me-teorological centers, which will enable to improve the quality of forecasts and warning, and increase advance time to take timely measures to reduce damage caused to the economy and population • Organize data collection and dissemination at regional HMC and HMO• Introduce technologies for radar data processing to ensure early storm warnings

MODERN COMPUTER TECHNOLOGIES FOR PROCESSING, FORECASTING AND PRESENTATION OF INFORMA-

TION

• Introduce a multi-purpose meteorological communication facility and a system of hydrometeorological data processing and visualization (Dushanbe)• Provide regional HMC with computers and office equipment to meet user-needs in hydrometeorological information • Introduce technologies (hardware and software) to improve the emergency warning and response system • Adapt automated SRM-based water flow forecasting technologies for the use at river basins in Tajikistan

COMPONENT C. INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING AND CAPACITY BUILDING

C1. ENHANCE SERVICE DELIVERY

In the past few years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has highlighted the importance of service delivery and the need for NMHSs to be more customer or user focused to ensure that their products are used optimally for social and economic benefit.

Traditionally, NMHSs dealt with customers with a significant amount of training in meteorology, such as aviation. Today, however, more sectors of the economy are weather and climate sensitive resulting in a new client base demanding new products. However, since these users often have little knowledge and understanding of the specifics of weather, water and climate in their decisions, there is a need for a more collaborative approach to service delivery that involves both the provider and the user of the services. Unless this active engagement occurs, the users are often unable to utilize meteorological information effectively and though important, it is often discounted as factor in decision making.

Any technical refurbishment and enhancement of the Tajik NMHS must be accompanied by investment in service delivery that meets the ever changing needs of society and the economy. Ultimately the value of the NMHS will be measured in terms of the behavior of users and the outcomes of their decisions. This means strengthening the capacity of the NMHS to deliver quantifiable social and economic benefits from their core activities.

Key elements include:• The capacity to understand and interact effectively with stakeholders using staff trained appropriately• Continuous engagement of stakeholders through frequent meetings and workshops to understand the changing needs of users and current performance of Tajikhydromet• Establishing a customer advisory body, which includes representatives of all stakeholders • Easily accessible products through the web and other media


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• Well defined service agreements between the Tajikhydromet and each customer• Special attention to key user groups

WARNINGS TO PUBLIC AND ECONOMIC SECTORS

• Restoring the system of warnings about EHH and HE provided to public authorities, economic entities and local communi-ties in areas subject to the risk of EHH and HE occurrence • Perform zoning of the country’s territory by the probability of EHH and HE occurrence; establish and maintain a database on negative effects of unfavorable and hazardous hydrometeorological events to support strategic planning of economic activities; • Develop cooperation with national and regional authorities in providing warnings about extreme and hazardous weather events, including the development of coordination plans; • Develop warning procedures at the national and regional levels; • Study international experience in establishing the system of warnings about extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events and reducing associated damage; • Modernizing the system of early storm warnings based on modernized MRL-5.

MEDIA

The media are an important sector through which a NMHS communicates its products and services to the public. Since the media are usually at the leading edge of public information services collaboration with this sector can be used to develop visual-ization tools and a platform for the public dissemination of forecasts.

In general the cost of this effort is borne by the media, which can recover the investment through their own revenue streams, either through government appropriation or advertising income.

The media is also the outlet for information about the NMHS and as such it is an important means of securing public visibility. A proactive approach to the media is essential in order to produce a favorable view of a NMHS. A reactive approach usually means that the NMHS is defending itself against public criticism for a failed forecast, which is inevitable, without the benefit of a sympathetic public.

• Introduce technologies for presentation of hydrometeorological information in mass media; • Elaborate and put into effect Procedures for issuing and disseminating urgent information on the risk or occurrence of natu-ral disasters, as well as collection and transmission of data on disaster consequences.

CREATE A NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE WITHIN THE NMHS

A particularly important enhancement of the mission of any NMHS is the addition of a dedicated climate service, which should be viewed as an equal to the traditional weather forecasting and hydrological service missions. A National Climate Service (NCS) transforms the traditional climatological role of a NMHS, which focuses on the collection and mapping of meteorological data to a full user oriented service, which can be provided as an integral part of the services delivered by the NMHS.

Climate information is needed for planning and construction of buildings and facilities, and for the assessment of the impact of climate variations and change on the Tajik economy and to provide a sound scientific basis for adaptation.

Climate change risk reduction is a priority for development and therefore particularly important in developing and transitional economies. This requires adequate monitoring and dissemination programs at the national level to assess risks, and the institutional capacity to develop the national capability to transform climate data, which will enable the government to include climate informa-tion in economic development programs.

In general, the NCS function of the NMHS should include key users, who have responsibility for the application of climate information within their specific sector. This will help to establish the appropriate roles and responsibilities of the NMHS versus other organizations that have responsibility for climate change policy, such as the State Agency on Environmental Protection and Forestry, which has responsibility for UN Framework Convention on Climate Change related activities. As in other countries, cli-mate change policy makers should rely on the NMHS for the provision of climate data and information relevant to their decisions.

The NCS would have primary responsibility for services to climate sensitive sectors, although both weather and climate in-formation are required by most. These sectors include development, finance, energy, water resource management, agriculture, urban planning and health, amongst others. Many of these sectors overlap and interact. For example, public health includes food security, access to clean water and sanitation – each dependent on the climate and weather extremes.

Managing the interactions between stakeholders is the responsibility of all of the relevant sectors. Various mechanisms exist to encourage inter sector cooperation across all of civil society, both public and private.


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STRENGTHEN TAJIKHYDROMET REGULATIONS

The scientific methodological basis of Tajikhydromet operation should be brought into compliance with WMO manuals and guidelines using the experience of CIS Hydrometeorological Services:

• Receive and adapt CIS and WMO current guidance documents in the field of making observations and processing stor-age and delivery of information,

o Continue to bring into force guidance documents of Tajikhydromet in the field of making observations and processing, storage and delivery of information taking into account national legislation and practice;

WEATHER MODIFICATION

• Institutional and technical activities aimed at reducing damage caused to the agricultural sector by means of active modifi-cation of rain and hail-bearing clouds:• Provide technical aids of active modification

HYDROGRAPHIC SURVEYS

• Hydrographic survey of the Kairakkum water reservoir to identify the actual amount of water resources having regional importance for the recording of freshwater resources.

C2. IMPROVE STAFF TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADES

A modern NMHS needs highly skilled employees, who refresh and upgrade their capabilities to meet the ever changing requirements of the service. External training programs for the staff should focus on as few training centers as possible so that the training is consistent and the skills readily shared across the organization.

While the basic meteorological and hydrological products will not change dramatically, new technical and service related expertise will be needed. This will require an overall upgrading of skills and responsibilities and a long-term plan for staffing, which should be defined in the context of the technical refurbishment and service delivery strategy29. This should be reviewed in the con-text of other modernization efforts currently underway.

Areas requiring enhancement:• Project management• Technical skills to support observing networks• Enhanced skills in weather forecasting using numerical methods• Knowledge of social, environmental, and economic sectors sufficient to provide consulting services to their users• Enhanced skill in climate prediction using numerical methods• Greater computer literacy for all staff• Public education and outreach• IT management skillsAs a first step provide training of hydrometeorological specialists at professional development courses offered by WMO, CIS

training centers and other international institutions. The required activities include: training courses for the observational staff of hydrometeorological stations and sites, transfer of experience and participation of specialists in training sessions dedicated to the development and implementation of new forecasting techniques (seasonal forecasts), use of satellite digital information in weather forecasting and analysis, utilization of hydrometeorological devices and facilities, more efficient work with data.

Develop and introduce the system of incentives for NMHS specialists by generating additional funds from marketing special-purpose hydrometeorological services

Implement training activities to increase the capacity of Tajikhydromet personnel to work effectively with users by increasing their knowledge of user sectors and user-needs.

Implement training activities (seminars, round tables, etc.) for major users (national and regional authorities, sector ministries, fuel and energy sector, food producers, water management companies, etc.), including those dealing with the use of hydrometeo-rological information to ensure timely response actions.

29 Various guidelines on service delivery issues are available from WMO Public Weather Services Programme in English only.


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THE SECOND OPTION – LOW BUDGET (MINIMUM OPTION)

Cost: USD1,390,000The minimum scenario envisages implementation of a limited list of activities aimed at maintaining the available NMHS capac-

ity, ensuring its institutional, staff and financial sustainability, and strengthening cooperation with users. Under this option it will be possible to improve the accuracy of 1-3 day forecasts by 3-5%, to achieve a more reasonable per-

formance in terms of time of delivery of observation data to operational-forecasting divisions within Tajikhydromet and strengthen service delivery to users. It should be noted that this low budget option will not allow Tajikhydromet to achieve a “satisfactory” technological level, it will make possible just to retain the current unsatisfactory level for 3-4 years. After that considerable invest-ments will be required to the technological component and particularly to the institutional component of Tajikhydromet. This option is considered to be too risky as it may lead to full degradation of Hydromet service.

ASSESSMENT OF OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS

When planning the introduction of new equipment, one should realize that operation and maintenance of instruments would require financial and technical support provided on a continuous basis throughout the life cycle of equipment. Even the essential investments in the Tajikhydromet structure will require increased operational costs to ensure efficient operation of observational networks, and data collection and processing centers.

Above all, with a view to retain the staff capacity of the NMHS, a system of incentives needs to be established to be financed from additional proceeds from marketing special-purpose user services; in the fourth project year salaries of the NMHS staff should be increased at least by 2 times, and that of key specialists – by 3-4 times. This will require at least a million somoni per year.

Additional expenses will be needed to ensure adequate functioning of new meteorological, hydrological and modernized radar equipment, particularly after completion of warranty period. It is assumed that expenses for spare parts, technical mainte-nance and support would be 10% during first five years of operation. Therefore at least additional USD 180,000-200,000 will be needed for operation and maintenance of this new equipment.

Another large expenditure category relates to the cost of communication services which depends on both the price policy of communication and Internet providers operating in Tajikistan, and actual conditions of radio wave passage in remote areas. In-troduction (restoration) of 37 automatic measuring devices, at least 10 of which are to be located in inaccessible mountain areas, and establishment of data collection centers at HMC/MHO will require at least 2.5-fold increase of the operational costs and make up about 120 thousand somoni.

Renewal of operations on metrological support of the observational network, execution of routine and repair works, staff train-ing and introduction of power supply facilities will result in at least 3-fold increase of operational costs under respective expendi-ture categories.

It is rather difficult to estimate the expenses of data collection and processing centers on expendable materials for printing de-vices, since the transition to new technologies would entail significant changes in the amount and formats of information provided to users. Experience shows that the cost of expendables will initially increase by 5 times as compared to the current cost of such operations.

In summary, the preliminary operating and maintenance costs under basic modernization option of Tajikhydromet moderniza-tion and technical upgrading is estimated as USD 650,000-750,000. Implementation of a low budget option will require alloca-tion of additional USD 75,000-100,000 per annum.

It is expected that the government will be in the position to cover all or most of these costs as a part of its regular public finance (budget) allocations.

5.2. ACTION PLAN AND NEXT STEPS

Implementation period of the NMHS modernization project will largely depend on availability of funding for modernization, Tajikistan’s commitment to reorganizations during the transition to a new model of NMHS operations, and timely allocation of budget funds to finance reconstruction and rehabilitation of office and residential buildings, and hydrological facilities at meteoro-logical and hydrological stations proposed for technical upgrading.

Since the modernization of the observational network envisages primarily standard activities, project implementation is ex-pected to take up 3-4 years.

Preliminary results of the study were presented to the government stakeholders at the end of November 2008 at the consulta-tion workshop. Participants of the workshop supported the findings as recorded in the workshop recommendations (Annex 5). It is expected that the Action plan for improvement of weather, climate and hydrological services delivery in Tajikistan elaborated further in this report will be supported by the Government.


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Financing of the Action Plan will likely be a combination of governmental funds, concessional financing from international financial institutions (IFIs), and international and bilateral donors’ support. It is possible that program of Tajikhydromet moderniza-tion will be supported by the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). Tajikistan was recently nominated to become a partici-pant in this Program. The Action Plan will also be an integral part of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (CAREC DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters.

The CAC DRMI incorporates three focus areas: (i) coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) financ-ing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. The initiative would be coordinated by World Bank, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the CAREC umbrella. The Initiative will build on the existing cooperation that already exists in the region, and will complement and consolidate activities of the IFIs, the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN agencies, regional cooperation institutions, bilateral donors such as the Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC), Japan International Coop-eration Agency (JICA), and others to promote more effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. It was agreed by donors and international organizations to convene in November 2009 a regional Central Asia Workshop aimed at improvement of hydrometeorological services and early warning systems. It is hoped that specific approaches towards funding commitments will be made during this workshop.


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BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

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Mirzokhonova, Natalia. 2008b. Hazardous Hydrometeorological Events and their Impact to the Economy of Tajikistan. Power Point Presentation at the Consultation Workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate Service Delivery In Tajikistan”. RT Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense (Information Analysis Center). November, 27. Dushanbe. Tajikistan.

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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION SOURCES

Asian Development Bank (ADB). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2008www.adb.org/statistics

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RT Government http://www.government.gov.tj/


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State Enterprise for Hydrometeorology (Tajikhydromet) of the Committee for Environmental protection under the RT http://www.meteo.tj/eng/index.html

The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination Systemhttp://www.gdacs.org/

Tajikhydromet http://www.meteo.tj/UNEP/GRID – Arendal. Central & Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia http://enrin.grida.no/

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United Nations Development Programme. Tajikistanhttp://www.undp.tj/

United Nations World Food Programmehttp://www.wfp.org/

WMO Public Weather Services Programmehttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/publicationsguidelines_en.htm

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)http://www.wmo.int/


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ANNEXES

Annex I. List, criteria and description of extreme (high-impact) hydrometeorological hazards and hydrometeoro-

logical hazards

Name of EHH Description and criteria of EHHs and HHs

EXTREME (HIGH IMPACT) HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

Meteorological events

Rain 30 mm of precipitation or more received in 12 hours or less than 12 hoursWet snow 30 mm of precipitation or more received in 12 hours or less than 12 hours Rain and snow 50 mm of precipitation or more received in 12 hours or less than 12 hours Heavy shower 30 mm of precipitation received in period not longer that 1 hour

Heavy hail Diameter of hailstones is 20 mm or bigger; diameter of hailstones is smaller, but damage to the economy is considerable

Heavy snowfall (incessant, showery; wet showery) 20 mm of precipitation received in 12 hours or less than 12 hours

Heavy fog Fog with visibility of 50 m and less than 50 m during 12 or more hours Severe heat (extremely-high temperature)

Maximum air temperature is 400 and higher during 5 days

Severe frost (extremely-low temperature) Minimum air temperature in valleys is not higher than -10oС during 5 days

Wind Average speed or speed of gusts is not lower than 25 m/s Squall Maximum speed is higher than 25 m/s during not less than 1 minute Glaze Diameter of deposit is 20 mm or moreHard rime Diameter of deposit is 50 mm or moreDeposit of wet snow and glazed deposit of wet snow Diameter of deposit is 35 mm or more

Severe dust (sand) storm Dust storm of 3 hours duration or longer with an average wind speed of 15 m/s or higher and related reduction of visibility up to 50 m and less than 50 m

Snowstorms: blizzards with snowfall Snowstorm of 3 hours duration or longer with an average wind speed of 15 m/s or higher and related reduction of visibility up to 50 m and less than 50 m

Hydrological events

High water level gauged during flood, ice jam and ice gorge events when lowland areas in settlements, agricultural lands, roads and railways can be submerged and large industrial and transport facilities can be damaged

Individual criteria for each gauge

Mudflow Flood on mountain river with very high (up to 75%) concentration of mineral particles and rock debris

Snow avalances Mass of snow moving at high speed downslope. Can be very destructive and poses threat to life, property and economy.


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Agrometeorological events

Frosts Air or soil surface temperature drops below -100C in the growing season during not less than 3 hours resulting in crop damage

Soil droughtDuring 3 consecutive ten day periods available moisture of the soil in a 0-20 sm layer is less than 10 mm

Atmospheric drought Atmospheric drought index Si of D.A. Ped is used as a criterion to identify droughts of various intensity

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

Meteorological events

Precipitation, snowstorms, dust (sand) storms, haze, fog, reduced visibility

Meteorological range of visibility is less than 2000 m

Wind speed, m/s (average or maximum) 15 m/s and higher

Thunderstorm, hail, glazed rain Any intensitySnow avalanches, mudflow Any intensity

Source: Tajikhydromet.


88

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and

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19

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Loss

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19

97

19

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94

Annex 4. Agenda. Consultation workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate service Delivery in

Tajikistan” November 27, 2008. Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Organized by World Bank in collaboration with State Agency on Hydrometeorology (Tajikhydromet )

of the Committee on Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan November 27, 2008 (Dushanbe, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Tajikistan)

AGENDA

09:15-9:30 Registration of participants 9:30-09:50 Welcome Remarks.

Aziz Khaidarov (Projects and Programs Coordinator, World Bank Tajikistan Country Office), Begmurod Mahmadaliev (Head, Tajikhydromet )Introduction of participantsWorkshop Objectives. Overview of World Weather Watch Vladimir Tsirkunov (Team Leader, World Bank)

9:50-10:05 Current status of TajikHydroment System and Its Capacity to Forecast Hazardous Weather Events Speaker: Mahmad Safarov (Tajikhydromet )

10:05-10:20 Hydrometeorological Hazards and their Impacts on Economy of Tajikistan: Overview, Main Needs to Improve Emergency Preparedness and Emergency Response Speaker: NataliaMirzokhonova (RT Committee for Emergency Situations)

10:20-11:00 Data Needs Assessment of Weather-dependent Sectors: Discussion With Participation of National Sectoral Expertsagriculture emergency responsewater resources managementenergy sectortransportChaired by Aziz Khaidarov (World Bank)Facilitated by Marina Smetanina (World Bank)

11:00-11:30 Q&A, coffee-break11:30-11:45 Tajikhydromet Modernization Issues:

What Could Be Done to Improve Tajikhydromet Service Delivery Speaker: Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank)

12:45-12:05 Quantifying Economic Benefits of Hydromet Modernization in Tajikistan.Speaker: Marina Smetanina (World Bank)

12:05-12:15 Modernizing Hydromet Services in ECA CountriesWorld Bank ExperienceDonors’ Views and Potential Interest to Participate in Tajikhydromet Modernization Discussion facilitated by Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank)

12:15-12:45 Final Discussion: Workshop Recommendations and ResolutionChaired by: Aziz Khaidarov , Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank)

12:45-13:20 Closing RemarksSpeaker(s): Aziz Khaidarov , Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank)

13:20-13:30 Lunch


95

Annex 5. List of Participants. Consultation workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of Weather and Climate service

Delivery in Tajikistan” November 27, 2008. Dushanbe, Tajikistan

MINISTRIES AND STATE AGENCIES

NamePosition/Organization Contact Information

Mr. Mukhamadi Ormonov Deputy Head, Department of Technical Crops and Corn Ministry of Agriculture

Tel: (+99237) 2213146, 2218652,Cell: (+992 95) 1522817Email: [email protected]

Ms. S. Vazirbekova Senior Engineer,Barki Tajik

Tel: (+99237) 295380Fax: (+99237) 2358642

Mr. Rustam Burkhanov Senior ConsultantBarki Tajik

Tel: (+99237) 295380Fax: (+99237) 2358642Email: [email protected]

Mr. Saidanvar Ibrahimov Head, Emergency Situation DepartmentMinistry of Health

Tel: (+992 918) 666560Fax: (+99237) 2278177

Mr. Khoshim Yatimov Chief specialist, Department of Operating DataMinistry of Transport and Communications

Tel: (+99293) 5326982Fax: (+99237) 2232580

Mr. Tolibjon Toirov Chief Specialist, Department of Roads Construction and Road Facilities Ministry of Transport and Communications

Tel: (+992 37) 2211187Fax: (+992 37) 2212414

Mr. Khurshed Islomov Chief Specialist, Department of Water Resources Management and ScienceMinistry of Melioration and Water Resources Management

Tel: (+99237) 2353554, 2359740Fax: (+99237) 2353566Cell: (+99295) 1329001Email: [email protected]

Ms. Nataliya Mirzohanova

Head, Information Analysis DepartmentCommittee on Emergency situations and civil defense

Tel: (+992 37) 2234329Fax: (+99237) 2215650Email: [email protected]

Ms. Rano Karimova Chief Specialist, Department for Microeconomic analysis and cumulative information Ministry of Economic Development and Trade

Tel: (+99237) 2217631

Mr. Shuhrat Murodov Chief specialist, Department for agriculture development Ministry of Economic Development and Trade

Tel: (+99237) 2213080

Mr. Khabibullo Toshev Chief Specialist, Department of Roads Construction and Road FacilitiesMinistry of Transport and Communications

Tel: (+992 37) 2211713Fax: (+992 37) 2212003

Mr. Begmurod Mahmadaliev

Director, Tajikhydromet

Tel: (+99237) 2215471Cell: (+992 918)772828

Mr. Mahmad Safarov Deputy Director, Tajikhydromet

Tel: (+99237) 2215471Email: [email protected]

Mr. Nuriddin Kurbonaliev Chief Specialist, Financial and Economic Department Tajikhydromet

Tel: (+99237) 2215291

Ms. Sanamgul Farosatshoeva

Chief Specialist, Financial and Economic DepartmentTajikhydromet

Tel: (+99237) 2214124Fax: (+99237) 2215522

Mr. Oltiboy Mirzokhonov Tajikhydromet Tel: (+99237) 2215061Fax: (+99237) 2276181


96

Mr. Kurbonjon Kabutov Head, Research Center and use of renewable energy RT Academy of Science

Fax: +992 37 2257916Email: [email protected]

Mr. Abdusalim Juraev Committee for Environment Protection Tel: (+99237) 2361353Fax: (+99237) 2361353Email: [email protected]

Mr. Muzaffar Olimov Research Center “Shark” Tel: (+99237) 2332638

DONOR ORGNAIZATIONS

Mr. Kaiho Seiji Resident Representative,JICA Tajikistan Office

Tel: (+99237) 8812635/34Email: [email protected]

Mr. Nozim Mamadjonov Program Officer,JICA Tajikistan Office

Tel: (+992 93) 5777705Email: [email protected]

Mr. Zafar Samadov Senior National Program Officer,Swiss Cooperation Office (SDC)


Ms. Shahlo Rahimova Project Analyst, REACT Focal PointUNDP Tajikistan


Mr. Сraig Hampton WHO Tel: (+99248) 7011477/76/75/73Fax: (+99248) 7011484Email: [email protected]

Ms. Zulfia Davlatbekova Project Manager,EC

Tel: (+99237) 2217407, 2289118Fax: (+99237) 2214321Email: [email protected]

Mr. Zainiddin Karaev Program Officer,DFID

Tel: (+992 37) 2242221Email: Z [email protected]>

WORLD BANK

Mr. Vladimir Tsirkunov Senior Environmental EngineerEurope and Central Asia Region, World Bank, Washington, DC

Email: [email protected]

Ms. Marina Smetanina Project Coordinator/ConsultantEurope and Central Asia Region, World Bank Russia Country Office


Mr. Aziz Khaidarov Country Officer,World Bank Tajikistan Country Office


Ms. Takhmina Jumaeva Program AssistantWorld Bank Tajikistan Country Office


Ms. Takhmina Mukhamedova

Program AssistantWorld Bank Tajikistan Country Office


Ms. Munira Salieva Interpreter

Mr. Nizom Shamsuddinov

Interpreter


97

Annex 6. Major Preliminary Findings and Recommendations. Consultation workshop “Improvement of Efficiency of

Weather and Climate service Delivery in Tajikistan”

November 27, 2008. Dushanbe, Tajikistan

In compliance with the technical assistance program financed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) an appraisal was completed of the development prospects of the State Enterprise on Hydrometeorology of the Republic of Tajikistan (Tajik Hydromet) and improvement of quality of hydrometeorological services under the project implemented by the World Bank in the Republic of Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan.

Objective of the WorkshopDiscussion of preliminary results, development of recommendations and proposals on the action plan aimed at enhancing the

Tajik Hydromet capacity to deliver meteorological and hydrological services and information, warnings about hydrometeorologi-cal hazards to the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (RT), its economic sectors and population.

The workshop was preceded by the work of the World Bank experts, Tajik Hydromet specialists and experts from a number of ministries and agencies.

The workshop was attended by:Officials from the RT ministries and agencies, the World Bank staff, donor community representatives, and other stakeholders.

Having heard and discussed the presentations delivered, the workshop points out that:

This is the first comprehensive assessment of the Tajik Hydromet status and development prospects that covers areas such as: 1) impact of hydrometeorological hazards on the country’s economy and population; 2) users’ needs in Tajik Hydromet forecasts and information; 3) current technical status of Tajik Hydromet and identification of the options for its technical and technological renovations and upgrades; 4) evaluation of economic damages inflicted by the hydrometeorological hazards, and assessment of economic benefits of the proposed Tajik Hydromet modernization due to potentially avoided losses; 5) prioritization of activities aimed at a better provision of the Tajik economy and people with the hydrometeorological information and services, including warnings about the hydrometeorological hazards, aspects of risk reduction and adaptation to climate change;

Territory of Tajikistan and its people are prone to the extensive and large scale effects of the various natural processes caus-ing the hydrometeorological hazards (HHs). The HHs include high and low air temperature, droughts, frosts, strong wind, dust storm, significant precipitation, snow avalanche, mudflows, glaze-ice and rime deposition, thunderstorms, hail, and a thick fog. The Republic goes in average through up to 250-300 HHs every year suffering from a significant negative impact on its economic activities and human life losses.

Practically all economic sectors are exposed to the direct or indirect impact of the HHs and adverse weather conditions. The preliminary estimate, based on the data available from the Committee of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Tajikistan, shows that an average annual damages inflicted by the HHs total at least USD25 million (in 2006 prices) where the drought, mudflows, avalanches and intensely cold weather make the most devastating impact.

The effective operations of the state system of hydrometeorological monitoring and forecasting, provision of users with reliable and timely hydrometeorological information and weather forecasts shall be ensured through equipping the hydrometeorological services with the modern measurement instruments, employment of the up-to-date technologies, promoting the scientific framework for making observations and forecasting, and adequate staffing;

It needs to be stated that the status of observation networks, communication systems, forecasting services, warning systems, support of economic sectors of Tajikistan with these services do not meet the modern standards and may be characterizes as “very poor”, close to the crisis situation. Therefore, there is a steady reduction of efficiency in meeting the needs of the government, eco-nomic sectors and entities, in implementation of the international and regional commitments, including those related to the global observation network;

System wide problem of Tajik Hydromet is its inadequate technical and technological equipment due to the persistently insuf-ficient financing from the budget, including practically no capital investments. More than 80% of measurement instruments have passed their useful life time, metrological and scientific support is practically not available;

Further insufficient funding of hydrometeorological services is fraught with the danger of failures of most of the observation instruments, resulting in the switch from instrumental to visual measurements, dramatic reduction of the original data accuracy used in weather forecasting and users’ support.

There is a pressing need to re-equip the hydrometeorological services taking into account the increasing requirements of indi-vidual industries to the level and quality of hydrometeorological provisions;

The users’ needs survey aimed at the identification of strengths and weaknesses in the information support of the end users at the national and regional levels shows that the most wanted information from the users’ point of view is the data on the flow/run-off, precipitation and air temperature; short- and mid-term forecasts, short-term and monthly precipitation and air temperature fore-


98

casts; current data on flow/run-off, precipitation and air temperature and current data on the snow cover, historical data on flow/run-off, precipitation and air temperature; current and historical data on chemical parameters of water quality and mineralization.

Recommendations on the priority areas for potential Tajik Hydromet modernization were developed on the basis of (i) assess-ment of a situation on identification, forecasting and warning of the public and economy about the HH; (ii) commitments made by Tajikistan under international and bilateral agreements; (iii) review of the results of current international projects on provision of assistance to the hydrometeorological service, (iv) needs of the national economic sectors in hydrometeorological sevices and information; (v) analysis of the current status of the national hydrometeorological service, the Program for Rehabilitation of Hydro-meteorological Stations and Hydrological Posts of the State Enterprise on Hydrometeorology of the Republic of Tajikistan, and the national capacity in support of the system operations. The total cost of the proposed modernization activities is estimated at the level of USD6.1 million (in 2006 prices). The program is meant for 4 years of implementation; it would facilitate the Tajik Hydromet technical upgrade and contribute to the improvement of its services delivery level from ‘very poor’ to ‘satisfactory”.

More detailed description of the proposed measures and activities to bring the Tajik Hydromet out of the crisis situation and to build capacity for its further development is presented in Annex 2.

Assessment of economic benefits due to improved hydrometeorological services for economy and people of the Republic of Tajikistan resulting from the technical and technological modernization of the Tajik Hydromet was based on a number of methods. A full scale evaluation was hampered by the fragmented availability of data on the economic losses/damages (in both physical and value terms) in the Republic of Tajikistan incurred by the economy and people from the entire spectrum of HH and adverse weather conditions;

The level of annul average losses experienced by the national economy due to the weather factor was tentatively assessed in the range from USD20 million to USD41 million (in 2006 prices), which is about 0.8 – 1.6% of the GDP.

Potential economic effect of the Modernization Program implementation may vary from USD1.8 million a year (benchmarking method) to USD3.9 million (sector-specific assessment) in 2006 prices. Assuming that this annual average effect would be ensured over 7 years of the program implementation and extensive equipment operations, the accumulated benefits from the program implementation would vary from USD12 million to USD27 million. Economic efficiency of the proposed investments in moderniza-tion program implementation would be then 200% to 450%, or, in other words, every dollar spent on Tajik Hydromet may bring at least 2 – 4.5 dollars in return resulting from the potentially averted losses.

In addition the cost/benefit analysis was undertaken, and its results are also in favor of the significant economic viability of the Program implementation. The cost/benefit ratio is 2.1, and the discounted payback period is estimated at 5.5 years.

The workshop pointed out the following: 1. The workshop participants were unanimous in their opinion of the inadequate and outdated equipment of the Tajik Hy-dromet affecting the quality of the services it provides and resulting in the significant economic losses. In addition, the work-shop participants emphasized that the significant economic losses may be caused by the insufficient interaction between the Tajik Hydromet and main beneficiaries of the hydrometeorological information. The timely modernization of Tajik Hydromet is critical in the current situation. 2. The importance of involvement of experts from a number of ministries and agencies to identify the actual user-needs in hydrometeorological information and services, the level of usefulness of this work for Tajik Hydromet and for the agencies themselves. These activities need to be continued to determine the optimal level of government funding required for the mini-mization of economic losses and identification of areas for the most efficient investments.3. The need to consider the experiences of the World Bank, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other international organizations in implementation of comprehensive projects aimed at the improvement of hydrometeorological services.

The Workshop recommendations to Tajik Hydromet include proposals: To set up a working group, and based on the findings presented and discussed, to develop an investment proposal on modern-

ization of Tajik Hydromet for submission to the RT Ministry of Economic Development (MoED) for potential support from its public investment program Program in 2010-2012;

To present the modernization proposals to the donors’ review for potential financing or cofinancing of its critical components, To improve the staffing policy and practices (training and retraining of the NMHS staff with the development of motivation

systems to retain the available qualified resources and hiring of new staff);To strengthen the cooperation between Tajik Hydromet and its customers, including the development of a feedback system (with

a potential use of new technologies);To work more closely with the main industries and housing sector entities in calculating the economic effects (including the esti-

mate of prevented losses) of hydrometeorology information use in sectoral decision making process;To develop the communication and cooperation policies and arrangements for different user groups on provision of data on a

fee for service basis;


99

To be more proactive in attracting the weather-dependent economic sectors (fuel and energy industry, water sector, housing sector and utilities) to co-finance programs on a targeted collection and generation of hydrometeorological information;

To emphasize the relevance of the hydrometeorological information for the additional economic benefits for the entire domestic economy, individual industries and the people based on the following:

special consultation campaigns with various user groups,development of Tajik Hydromet website pages with the information on adverse weather effects on various industries and on

people (guidelines, recommendations, international experience);after completion of the study to carry out a series of information dissemination activities to spread the technical assistance

project results jointly with the press service of the Committee on Environmental protection, RT Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense.


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Appendix

PROPOSED Activities and Measures to Bring the National Hydrometeorology Service (NMHS) out of the Crisis Situation and to Build the Capacity for its Further Development

The following measures are proposed to address the critical situation of the national hydrometeorology services:Institutional Strengthening of the NMHS, Improving the staff and financial sustainability of NMHS The objective is to create conditions for ensuring institutional, staffing and financial sustainability of the NMHS. In view of the

proposed significant changes in the NMHS system involving implementation of modern technologies, these activities are essential to the achievement of modernization objectives, and should include:

development of institutional development and system restructuring options incorporating the customer needs and NMHS fi-nancing prospects;

development of a legal and regulatory framework concerning the specialized hydrometeorological customer services;improvement of specialized hydrometeorology customer services to meet the economic and social country development strat-

egy and ensure the financial and technical sustainability of the NMHS;development and implementation of the NMHS capacity building program;improvements of the NMHS staff qualifications and professional level in operation of the observation technical equipment and

information technologies; provide training of the hydrometeorological specialists using the opportunities provided by the Voluntary Cooperation Program

of the WMO, CIS training centers and other international institutions;development and implementation of the system of incentives for the NMHS specialists by generating additional revenues from

marketing specialized hydrometeorological services and information tailored to current and future user fees;implement training activities (workshops, round tables, etc.) for major users (government and regional authorities, sector minis-

tries, economic entities, fuel and energy sector enterprises, food producers, water management companies, etc.), including those dealing with the use of the hydrometeorological information (HMI) to ensure timely response actions.

Technical Upgrading of Observation NetworkThe objective is to restore the meteorological and hydrological observation networks, to ensure the efficient and timely transmi-

tion of the observation results. Implemented of these activities will help to meet the needs of the national economy and users in reli-able HMI, and fulfill the international and bilateral obligations on the exchange of information on the current hydrometeorological conditions within the country. These data, first of all, are essential for the assessment and management of water resources.

Collection of high-quality data will form the basis for producing reliable weather forecasts at the regional and local levels, and ensure the timely detection and forecasting of adverse and hazardous weather events developments.

. Reconstruction and rehabilitation of the office abd residential building, hydrological facilities at meteorological stations and

hydrological gauges proposed for re-equipment it ti be performed by the NMHS as a part of the nation-wide implementation program.

Specific activities in this area would include:Technical re-equipment of hydrological gauges not captured by the Swiss Technical Assistance Program to Tajikistan to support

hydrological (water flow) and hydrochemical monitoring of the water resources.Equipment of 50 hydrological gauges with standard measurement devices, hydrological instruments and communication facili-

ties;Equipment of 14 hydrological gauges located at river sections adjacent to national frontiers with stationary Doppler profilo-

graphs to allow highly accurate water flow measurements; Introduction of 5 automatic snow metering systems to measure the height of snow cover and moisture reserves in the snow in

the region of the Vakhsh and Panj main river runoff formation. Equipment of standard measurement equipment, power supply units and communication systems to 40 meteorological sta-

tions and air meteorological posts within the backbone of the 2 WMO (RRCS-2 – regional reference climate system 2) regional association stations included in the exchange program under other intergovernmental agreements and to ensure safety of flights. The power supply systems should be mostly based on the renewable sources of energy (solar accumulators, wind power genera-tors for 8 mountain stations might be suggested). The power supply systems should support the domestic electric appliances when proposed for the 18 remote and high-altitude stations. The snow survey instrumentation and equipment should be additionally proposed for the high-altitude stations.

Implementation of 10 automatic weather stations (AWS) at previously closed ground based meteorological stations and in the remote-access areas. Modernization of communications facilities at the 7 previously installed AWS.


101

Equipment of mobile sets of equipment for 2 central hydrometeorological stations, 1 hydrometeorological support post, and 5 hydrological stations to measure the hydrochemical water properties and to control the transboundary transport of the surface water pollution.

Establish cluster radio stations on the basis of some hydrometeorological stations. Procure stationary calibration systems for the checking of measurement devices to ensure accurate ad reliable input data for

the NMHS Measurement Device Center in Dushanbe. Establish a rotating pool (20% of meteorological and hydrological meters and controllers) and spare parts stock to ensure reli-

able continuous operation of the installed automated systems for 5 years at least.

Establishing (modernization) of the customer hydrometeorological services.

This is a key project component that provides for implementation of a wide-scale program for improvement of hydrometeoro-logical service improvements.

Improving the forms and methods in provision of general weather forecasts for the government authorities and the public, as well as specialized forecasts for particular user groups appears to be one of the most important factors of project success. It is necessary to continue the efforts on expanding the number of river basins where automated snowmelt runoff model (SRM) based water technologies are in place. The Tajik Hydromet must provide data in a standard user-friendly format in compliance with the existing standards. To this end, it is required to review the procedures for data and information product presentation, and to imple-ment institutional and technological enhancement of the NMHS Headquarters and hydrometeorological centers .

Specific measures under this component would include:Introducing modern communication facilities and technologies of data receiving and processing used by the leading meteo-

rological centers, which will enable the higher quality of forecast and warnings, and increase advance time to ensure timely mea-sures to reduce potential damages to the economy and people.

Implementation of a multi-purpose meteorological communication facilities and a system of hydrometeorological data process-ing and visualization (in Dushanbe;)

Organization of data collection and distribution at the regional (oblast) hydrometeorological centers and support offices; Installation of computer and office equipment in the regional (oblast) hydrometeorological centers to meet users’ needs in HMI;Adaptation of automated SRM based water flow forecasting technologies to be used at the Tajikistan river basins. Restoration of the information systems for the government authorities, economic entities and the local public communities in the

areas subject to the risk of the HHs and adverse weather conditions:. Zoning of the national territory by the probability level of HHs and adverse weather conditions occurrence;, establishment

and maintenance of a database on the adverse effects of the unfavorable weather conditions and dangerous hydrometeorology phenomena to support strategic planning of the economic activities;

Introducing of mass media presentation technology of the hydrometeorological information;Implementing technologies (hardware and software) to improve government’s emergency warning and response systems; Study of the international experience in establishment of warning systems about the HHs and risk reduction of damages caused

by the HHs; Developing a system for cooperation with the national, regional and local government authorities in providing warnings about

HHs and adverse weather events and conditions, including elaborations of the joint action plans and schedules;Developing/improvement of the warning procedures at the national and regional levels; Elaborating and implementing the procedures for issuing and disseminations of the urgent weather alerts on the risk or occur-

rence of a potential or actual natural disaster, as well as on the collection and transfer of data on disasters consequences.Modernization of the early storm warning system based on the MRL-5 (meteorological radio locator -5): Modernization of 3MRL-5; Introducing technologies for the radar data processing to ensure the early storm warnings. Institutional and technical activities aimed at reducing the damage to the agricultural sector production through active modifica-

tions of rain and hail-bearing clouds:Provision of impact modifications equipment/aids/ Hydrographic survey of the Kairakum water reservoir to identify the actual amount of water reserves having critical regional

importance for the recording of the fresh water resources in the region. Procurement of cross-country vehicles (at least 4-5) to support the agrometeorological observations, snow surveys, and sup-

port to operations of remote and mountain hydrometeorological stations.


102

Annex 7 List of Activities and Budget: Modernization and Technical Upgrading Options of the National

Hydrometeorological Service of Tajikistan (in USD)

NN Activities Option 1 Option 2

Number Cost Number Cost

A Development of Technical design of the

hydrometeorological monitoring and

telecommunication system

400 000 120 000

A.1 Developing the concept of Tajikhydromet development in view of the clients’ needs and financing prospects of the NMHS

100 000 20 000

A.2 Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system

300 000 100 000

B Improve the system of hydrometeorological

monitoring to provide timely warnings of extreme

and hazardous weather events and to manage water

resources

4 475 000 920 000

B.1. Technical upgrading of the observational network 3 450 000 660 000

B.1.1 Technical upgrading of hydrological gauges not included in the Swiss assistance program to ensure hydrological (water flow) and hydrochemical water monitoring

B.1.1.1 Equip hydrological gauges with standard measurement devices, hydrological instruments and communication facilities

40 600 000 0 0

B.1.1.2 Equip hydrological gauges with stationary Doppler profile recorders for water flow measurements

10 350 000 5 175 000

B.1.2 Introduce automatic snow survey systems to measure snow depth and water content in areas of Vakhsh and Pyanj River runoff formation

5 375 000 2 150 000

B.1.3 Equip meteorological stations with standard measuring devices, and communication and power supply facilities

40 800 000 30 335 000

B.1.4 Introduce automatic meteorological stations at previously closed ground-based meteorological stations and in remote-access areas. Modernize communication facilities at 7 previously installed AMS

7 175 000 0 0

B.1.5 Modernize MRL-5-based radars and introduce a technology for radar data processing to ensure early storm warning

800 000 0 0

B.1.6 Procure stationary calibration systems for the checking of measurement devices to ensure accurate and reliable input information for the NMHS Measurement Device Center (Dushanbe)

2 250 000 0 0

B.1.7 Establish a rotating pool and spare parts stock 100 000 0 0B.2 Strengthen the IT base of Tajikhydromet 1 125 000 260 000

B.2.1 Establish cluster radio stations 3 105 000 0 0B.2.2 Introduce modern communication facilities and

technologies of data reception and processingB.2.2.1 Introduce a multi-purpose meteorological communication

facility and a system of hydrometeorological data processing and visualization (Dushanbe)

1 230 000 1 230 000

B.2.2.2 Organize data collection and dissemination at regional HMC

3 170 000 0 0

B.2.2.3 Provide regional HMC with computers and office equipment to meet user-needs in hydrometeorological information

4 40 000 3 30 000

B.2.2.4 Adapt automated SRM-based water flow forecasting technologies for the use at river basins in Tajikistan

40 000 0 0

B.2.3 Provide equipment for blueprinting and digitizing of paper records

100 000 0 0


103

B.2.4 Provide hardware and software for storage of digitalized paper records

350 000 0 0

B.2.5 Provide equipment for dissemination of hydrometeorological data

90 000 0 0

C Institutional strengthening and capacity building 1 115 000 350 000

C.1 Enhance service delivery 660 000 120 000

C.1.1 Restore the system of warnings about EHH and HE provided to public authorities, economic entities and local communities in areas subject to the risk of EHH and HE occurrence

C.1.1.1 Perform zoning of the country’s territory by the probability of EHH and HE occurrence; establish and maintain a database on negative effects of unfavorable and hazardous hydrometeorological events to support strategic planning of economic activities

1 70 000 1 70 000

C.1.1.2 Introduce technologies for presentation of hydrometeorological information in mass media

1 50 000 0 0

C.1.1.3 Introduce technologies (hardware and software) to improve the emergency warning of authorities, and emergency response system

1 70 000 0 0

C.1.1.4 Study international experience in establishing the system of warnings about extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events and reducing associated damage

1 20 000 0 0

C.1.1.5 Develop cooperation with national, regional and local authorities on warnings in case of extreme and hazardous weather events, including the development of coordination arrangements and plans

1 20 000 0 0

C.1.1.6 Develop and put into effect warning procedures at the national and regional levels on disseminating urgent information on the risk or occurrence of natural disasters

1 10 000 0 0

C.1.2 Website, user access to data 80 000 0 0C.1.3 Improve Commercial Services. Develop Commercial

business model, intellectual property licensing, 80 000 0 0

C.1.4 Hydrographic survey of the Kairakkum water reservoir to identify the actual amount of water resources having regional importance for the accounting of freshwater resources

20 000 0 0

C.1.5 Procure cross-country vehicles (at least 4) to support agrometeorological observations, snow surveys and the operation of inaccessible and mountain stations

120 000 0 0

C.1.6 Improve National Climate Service 120 000 0 50 000C.2 Staff training and professional upgrading 455 000 230 000

C.2.1 Develop legal and regulatory framework on special-purpose services provided to users

50 000 50 000

C.2.2 Improve special-purpose hydrometeorological services in line with the needs of the socioeconomic development to ensure financial and technical sustainability of the NMHS

50 000 0

C.2.3 Develop and implement the program of NMHS capacity strengthening including upgrading of qualification and professional skills, training and introduction of incentives

305 000 180 000

C.2.4 Implement training activities (seminars, round tables, etc.) for major users (national and regional authorities, sector ministries, fuel and energy sector, food producers, water management companies, etc.), including those dealing with the use of hydrometeorological information to ensure timely response actions

50 000 0

Total: 6 090 000 1 390 000


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Annex 8. The table below shows the NMHS training needs:

NN TYPE OF TRAININGNumber of specialists

Cost of training, USD(per person)

1 Meteorological engineers 6 10000

2 Actinometry engineers 3 10000

3 Climatologist 10000

4 Aerology engineer 3 10000

5 Hydrological engineer 5 10000

6 Agrometeorological engineer 2 10000

7 Instrument engineer 4 10000

Upgrading courses

1 Climatology engineer 2 2000

2 Hydrological engineer (forecaster) 2 2000

3 Instrument engineer 1 1000

4 Meteorological engineer (forecaster) 3 3000

5 Upgrading courses for HMS staff, persons 30 5000