improving weather, climate and hydrological services deliveryin turkmenistan

IMPROVING WEATHER,

CLIMATE

AND HYDROLOGICAL

SERVICES DELIVERY

IN TURKMENISTAN

World Bank

2009

This report reviews the social and economic requirements for weather, climate and hydrological information in Turkmenistan, assesses the capacity of the Turkmen National hydrometeorological Service to meet these needs, and proposes steps to be taken to fill gaps.

Table of Contents

PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

PURPOSE OF REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND NATURAL HAZARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7ROLE OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN KYRGYZSTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS FOR WEATHHR, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION. . . 8STATUS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10PROPOSED MODERNIZATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11NEXT STEPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

CHAPTER 1. KEY WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131.1. MAIN GEOGRAPHICAL AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131.2. WEATHHR AND CLIMATE RISKS AND THHIR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

1.2.1. WEATHHR, CLIMATE AND WATER HAZARDS: CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATOLOGY AND IMPACTS . . . . . . . 161.2.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

METHOD OF ESTIMATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20SOURCES OF INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF METEOROLOGICAL RISKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

1.3. WEATHHR-DEPENDENCE OF ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241.4. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OF TURKMEN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272.1. LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS, STAFFING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

2.1.1. BRIEF HISTORY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272.1.2. NMHS ACTIVITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272.1.3. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282.1.4. REGIONAL CENTERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292.1.5. NMHS BUDGET. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292.1.6. STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292.1.7. TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADING PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302.1.8. BUILDINGS, FACILITIES AND CAPITAL ASSETS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302.1.9. CONTACTS WITH MASS MEDIA AND COMMUNITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302.1.10. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302.1.11. COMPLETED PROJECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312.1.12. ON-GOING PROJECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322.1.13. COORDINATION WITH OTHHR AGENCIES WORKING IN THH FIELD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY . . . 32

2.2. OBSERVATION NETWORK, INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332.2.1. NMHS OBSERVATION SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33GROUND-BASED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33REMOTE OBSERVATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362.2.2. TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL EQUIPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372.2.3. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN WEATHHR FORECASTING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

ROUTINE FORECASTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37EVALUATION OF ROUTINE FORECASTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37ACCESS TO NUMERICAL MODEL DATA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

2.2.4. TELECOMMUNICATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF DATA AND INFORMATION PRODUCTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

2.2.5. NATIONAL DATA EXCHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402.2.6. INTERNATIONAL DATA EXCHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

2.3. PRODUCTS AND SERVICE DELIVERY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, NATIONAL COORDINATION. . . . . 412.3.1. WEATHHR INFORMATION SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412.3.2. CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412.3.3. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412.3.4. HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412.3.5. SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412.3.7. INFORMATION SERVICES PROVIDED AT USER REQUEST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

2.4 SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

CHAPTER 3 ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443.1 APPROACHHS TO NEEDS ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443.2 ASSESSMENT OF KEY SECTOR’S NEEDS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

3.2.1. TURKMENHYDROMET VISION OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEROLOGICAL INFORMATION AND FORECASTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453.2.1. EMERGENCIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473.2.2. AGRICULTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483.2.3. WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503.2.4. OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513.2.5. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533.2.6. COMMUNAL SERVICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543.2.7. TRANSPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

3.3. EVALUATION OF SECTOR NEEDS AND NMHS CAPACITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563.4. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

CHAPTER 4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DELIVERY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584.1. GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUNDS OF ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584.2. APPROACHHS TO ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 594.3. RESULTS OF THH ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THH PROPOSED TURKMENHYDROMET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 594.4. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

CHAPTER 5. HOW TO IMPROVE WEATHHR AND CLIMATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 625.1. POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT (MODERNIZATION PROPOSAL) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 625.2. ACTION PLAN AND NEXT STEPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71ANNEXES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

IMPROVING WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN

4

PREFACE

This report is prepared as a part of a technical assistance project “An Action Plan for Improving Weather and Climate

Service Delivery in High-risk, Low-income Countries in Central Asia” funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). GFDRR is a partnership of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) system to support implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. The Hyogo Framework endorsed by the UN general Assembly is the primary international agreement for disaster reduction. The GFDRR is managed by the World Bank on behalf of the participating donor stakeholders. The GFDRR provides technical and financial assistance to high risk, low- and middle-income countries to mainstream disaster reduction in national development strategies and plans to achieve Millennium Development Goals.

The report is based on the findings of the World Bank technical missions and surveys undertaken in Turkmenistan in 2008. A

user consultation workshop, which focused on the efficacy of the Turkmenistan’s national hydrometeorological services was con-ducted on September 30, 2008. The report will contribute to the development of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters. This Program was recently launched, coordinated by the World Bank, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Me-teorological Organization (WMO), under the umbrella of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC).

The program incorporates three focus areas: (i) disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) risk financing and transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. This Initiative would form the foundation for regional and country specific investment priorities (projects) in the area of early warning, disaster risk reduction and financing. While the initiative would initially focus on on-structural measures, it could in a subsequent phase support structural investments aimed at protecting assets, lives and livelihood of communities in disasterprone areas. It could be financed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and other interested donors. Funds could also be provided for adaptation to climate change and streamlining adaptation activities into countries’ development programs.


5

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The main authors of the report are David Rogers, Marina Smetanina, and Vladimir Tsirkunov who is also the Task Team Leader for this GFDRR project. A. Korshunov, V. Kotov and A. Zaitsev participated in the country missions and developed technical back-ground documents and studies on climate vulnerability, capacity assessment of Turkmenhydromet and modernization alternatives. L. Hancock and S. Sharipova contributed to the development of the study concept, provided valuable information and participated in the report preparation.

The authors would like to thank the staff of the Turkmenhydrometeorological service in its central office and regional centers, which facilitated the work of technical missions in Ashgabat and Turmenobad, Mary, Lebap and Mary velayats. Preparation of this report was advanced significantly by substantive inputs and coordination efforts made especially by Kakamurat A. Yazyev, Chairman of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology, and Dovran Boltaev, Director of Scientific and Research Center “Climate” of Turkmenhydromet. Important contribution to user needs assessments was made by experts from the entities of sectoral ministries/agencies of Turkmenistan, in particular Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Oil& Gas Industry and Mineral resources, Ministry of Water Industry, Ministry of Railway Transport, Ministry of Energy and Industry, Ministry of Nature Protection. The project team benefited from constructive dialogue with representatives of interested ministries and state agencies of Turkmenistan who took part in the workshop organized in partnership and with support of the Ministry of Finance of Turkmenistan and the National Hydrometeorology Committee at the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan, and demonstrated their unanimous recognition of urgent importance and support to improving Turkmenhydromet capacity.

The authors are grateful for support and valuable advice received from Roger Robinson, Country Manager for Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan, and also Serdar Jepbarov, Operations Officer World Bank Liaison Office in Turkmenistan, who also cochaired and kindly participated in discussions at the Consultation workshop with stakeholders. The assistance provided by colleagues from Ashgabat World Bank Office, especially Maral Amansahatova, while preparing technical missions and consultation workshop, is highly appreciated.


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ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ADB Asian Development Bank CIS Commonwealth of Independent States DWC Drasti c Weather Changes ECA Europe and Central AsiaEHH Extreme (high impact) Hydrometeorological Hazards GEF Global Environment Facility GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reducti on and RecoveryGIS Geographical Informati on System GTS Global Telecommunicati on System (WMO)HH hydrometeorological HazardsIASRF Internati onal Aral Sea Rehabilitati on Fund IBRD Internati onal Bank for Reconstructi on and Development IFI Internati onal Financial Insti tuti on IFRC Internati onal Federati on of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societi esIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIWRM Integrated Water Resource Management JICA Japan Internati onal Cooperati on Agency JICATN The Turkmen RepublicNMHS Nati onal Meteorological and Hydrological Service PWS Public Weather Service R&D Research and Development RT Republic of TurkmenistanSDC Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperati onSECO State Secretariat for Economic Aff airs of Swiss Ministry of Economic Aff airsTurkmenhydromet Nati onal Committ ee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan UNCCC United Nati ons Climate Change ConferenceUNCCD United Nati ons Conventi on to Combat Deserti fi cati on UNDAF United Nati ons Development Assistance FrameworkUNDP United Nati ons Development Programme UNEP United Nati ons Environmental Program UNESCAP United Nati ons Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacifi c UNISDR United Nati ons Internati onal Strategy for Disaster reducti on UNOCHA United Nati ons Offi ce for the Coordinati on of Humanitarian Aff airs UNWFP United Nati ons World Food ProgrammeVCP Voluntary Cooperati on Programme (WMO)WMO World Meteorological Organizati on – a United Nati ons agency


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PURPOSE OF REPORT

This report is prepared as a part of a broader technical assistance project funded by a Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) grant that is being implemented by the World Bank in the Republic of Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan. The overall objective of the project is to advance the disaster risk reduction agenda in Central Asia by developing specific actions to improve weather, climate and hydrological service delivery, which will contribute to national hazard risk reduc-tion programs and improve capacity for emergency management.

The purpose of this specific report is to identify the social and economic requirements of Turkmenistan for weather, climate and hydrological information and to assess to capacity of the Turkmen State hydrometeorological Service (Turkmenhydromet) to meet these needs. The report identifies the gaps and weaknesses in producing and delivering weather, climate and hydrological information and services, and recommends how to restore and improve the capability of the national hydrometeorological service to save lives and livelihoods, and support social and economic development.

GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND NATURAL HAZARDS

Turkmenistan is located in south-western part of Central Asia between 35°08’ and 42°48’ of northern latitude and 52°27’ and 66°41’ of eastern longitude, bordering in the north and north-east with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in the south and south-east with Iran and Afghanistan. The Caspian Sea is Turkmenistan’s western boundary with 1,768 km long coastline (see Figure 1.1).

The territory of Turkmenistan stretches for 1,110 km from west to east and 650 km from north to south. The area is 491.2 thou-sand sq. km, (almost all of which is land surface), making it the second largest country in Central Asia, after Kazakhstan.

The country’s topography is diverse. Turkmenistan’s average elevation is 100 to 220 meters above sea level, with its highest point being Mount Ayrybaba (3,137 meters) in the Kugitang Range of the Pamir-Alay chain in the far east, and its lowest point in the Transcaspian Depression (100–110 meters below sea level). Nearly 80 percent of the republic lies within the Turon Depres-sion, which slopes from south to north and from east to west.

A dominant feature of the republic’s landscape is the Kara Kum Desert, which stretches from the northern to the southern bor-der and occupies about 350,000 square kilometers. Shifting winds create desert mountains that range from two to twenty meters in height and may be several kilometers in length. Chains of such structures are common, as are steep elevations and smooth, concrete-like clay deposits formed by the rapid evaporation of flood waters in the same area for a number of years. Large marshy salt flats, formed by capillary action in the soil, exist in many depressions, including the Kara Shor, which occupies 1,500 square kilometers in the north-west. The Sundukly Desert west of the Amu Darya is the southernmost extremity of the Qizilqum (Russian spelling Kyzyl Kum) Desert, most of which lies in Uzbekistan to the north-east.

Over 18 types of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena occur in the country every year. They include: high and low air temperatures, droughts, frosts, strong wind, dust storms, snowdrifts on roads, heavy precipitation, floods, high water, mudflows, Ice jam on rivers, storm surge at the Caspian Sea, dense fogs and etc., that impose damages to the national economy and industry.

Historical records on specific types of Extreme hydrometeorological Hazards (EHH) and hydrometeorological Hazards (HH) are incomplete. Database is stored in hard copies and updated as appropriate. No zoning (mapping) of climatic recurrence of the above events has been carried out. However, observational data enable identification of the areas of frequent occurrence of these events. Frosts occur over the entire territory, except southern areas. Dust storms occur in the Central Kara Kum Desert, northern and central flat areas in Balkan velayat, central and northern areas in Akhal and Mary velayats, south-eastern areas in Lebap velayat. Droughts occur in Dashoguz velayat, Kara Kum Desert, northern areas of Balkan, Akhal and Mary velayats. Heavy

precipitation occurs in the piedmont and southern areas. Floods occur along the whole length of the Amy Darya River, and short duration rainfall flooding occurs in floodplains of small rivers – Murgab, Tedjen, Etrek and Sumbar.

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ROLE OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN KYRGYZSTAN

Turkmenhydromet is a public authority responsible for the implementation of the national hydrometeorological policy and meet-ing the needs of the national economy, industry and population of Turkmenistan in the information on actual and expected changes in hydrometeorological conditions and their consequences.

Turkmenhydromet provides short-, medium- and long-term weather forecasts, hydrological forecasts including those of the be-ginning and extent of flooding, formation of rainfall floods and mudflow development, as well as marine and agrometeorological forecasts.


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Weather forecasts for 1 day, 2-3 days, 7 days and once a month for 30 days are made for public authorities, all information products being disseminated in hard copies before the beginning of working day. In addition, storm warnings about hazardous hydrometeorological events are communicated on a real-time basis.

The work of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Turkmenistan Cabinet of Ministers (Turkmenhydromet) is governed by Turkmenistan Law on hydrometeorological Activities of September 15, 1999 # 392-1, and Regulations of the Na-tional Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan of January 15, 1998 # 3492.

By Resolution of the President of Turkmenistan of November 6, 1992, Turkmenistan acceded to the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and became the full Member of WMO on January 3, 1993. According to the WMO General and Technical Rules of Procedure, Turkmenhydromet participates in WMO scientific and technical programs, and hydro-meteorological data and products exchange based on the principles of free and unlimited exchange of information. In compliance with the Law of Turkmenistan on hydrometeorological Activities dated September 15, 1999, the NHMS takes part in the global exchange of hydrometeorological data with foreign institutions.

In compliance with the Agreement on Cooperation in the Area of Hydrometeorology between CIS Countries dated February 8, 1992, Turkmenistan exchanges hydrometeorological data and forecasts with Russia and Uzbekistan. Exchange of data on hazardous weather events is performed based on bilateral agreements with Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.

No separate agreements on hydrometeorology have been signed with the neighboring countries Afghanistan and Iran, and meteorological data from these countries are being obtained under the World Weather Watch through the WMO global telecom-munication system (GTS).

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS FOR WEATHHR, CLIMATE

AND HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION

In this study weather-dependence of the country’s economy is characterized by the total share of weather-dependent sectors in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). All sectors of the economy are exposed to impact of EHHs and HHs either directly or indirectly. However a degree of impact differs depending on type of activities and technological process of a specific sector as well as on what tools and technologies are used to incorporate hydrometeorological forecasts and services into management decision and protection measures.

A list of weather-dependent sectors was determined by the experts of the NHMS of Turkmenistan on the basis of official statisti-cal information and clarified based on the survey among experts from weather-dependant sectors. The list includes agriculture, mining industry (oil & gas operating at the Caspian shelf, first of all), transport and communication, energy sector, construction.

An averaged share of main weather-dependent sectors of the Turkmenistan economy in the period under review was 42.5% of the GDP. Taking into account that in this study a lower estimate of economic efficiency of Turkmenhydromet operation is deter-mined, it can be taken as the initial estimate.

Agriculture, representing about 18% of GDP, is exposed to weather conditions most of all, and to a considerable extent deter-mines the level of overall losses suffered by the economy. Agriculture rank first in terms of weather-dependence due to its specific features, i.e. permanent exposure to weather, seasonal character of operations, vast territories and the lack of efficient protection measures against EHHs and HHs.

Drought has a major impact on agriculture in Turkmenistan, which is mostly irrigated; the lack of water in rivers or hydrological drought in the vegetation period (April-September) is particularly hazardous, especially in spring and early summer. According to data from the Scientific Information Centre of the Interstate Commission on Water Coordination (ICWC), water volumes at Tok-togul and Nurek ended last year some 20% and 9% below historical averages, respectively. These low levels raise uncertainties about the availability of irrigated water for agriculture in the “downstream” Central Asian countries (particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) during the spring and summer of 2009 (see UNEP, 2009).

The alternation of extremely dry and wet years is typical for the strongly continental climate of Turkmenistan. The analysis of long-term data shows that light and severe droughts occur in Turkmenistan equally each accounting for 22-30% of the total num-ber of occurrences per year and moderate drought accounts for 41-52%. Concerns about the possible continuation of 2008’s drought conditions have led the US Department of Agriculture to forecast 25% declines for the 2009 winter wheat harvest and Turkmenistan (UNEP, 2009).

The weather-dependence category of Turkmenistan is comparable with those of, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan, but lower than those of Armenia and Georgia, where agriculture accounts for 25 and 30% of GDP, respectively.


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STATUS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

The Turkmenhydromet operates with largely obsolete equipment and lacks access to modern forecasting methods, which limits its capacity to provide the products and services needed by the public and the economy. All of the Turkmenhydromet facilities are in a poor state of repair; there is insufficient qualified staff even to adequately maintain the current network, and inadequate train-ing opportunities. Many users need information that Turkmenhydromet cannot provide at present. Users are often not well informed about NMHS has serious weaknesses such as: a low-density network of weather and gauging stations resulting in inadequate coverage of the high-altitude zone by meteorological observations; an almost complete absence of automated technical facilities, weather radars, and modern technologies and means for remote data processing and telecommunication; and critical conditions of Turkmenhydromet facilities and data archive.

The situation has a negative impact on the quality of observation data and forecasts (especially forecasts of hydrometeorologi-cal disasters), on how efficiently public, sector-specific and user needs can be met, and how the country can fulfill its international and regional obligations, including those under the Global Observation System.

ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS

When preparing their modernization programs, NMHSs have traditionally focused on the technological aspects of hydro-meteorological service development. Such approach aims at improving forecast accuracy and timeliness. However, inadequate interaction with users usually prevents NMHSs from taking into account their actual and especially potential information needs. A complete absence or under development of contacts with users at the modernization package development stage results in a gap between the opportunities and plans of hydrometeorological service provision and understanding of what, how and where NMHS information can be used most efficiently for management decision making in specific sectors of the economy.

This lack of attention to end users’ current and potential understanding of their benefits from better hydrometeorological servic-es during NMHS modernization may further increase information misalignment between a hydrometeorological service and its us-ers. To avoid this, it is essential for NMHSs to build their interaction with users on the basis of modern principles, taking into account users’ interest in NMHS development and demonstrating to them their own and national benefits, including the economic ones.

There are several key factors, which determine the priority, scale and sequence of activities to modernize the National hydro-meteorological Service and improve its institutional structure. These include assessment and recognition of the current status and trends in the needs for hydrometeorological information on the part of governmental institutions, users in major producing and nonproducing sectors of the economy, and the population.

The objectives and expected results of user needs assessment are to: (I) identify the causes and factors of poor interaction be-tween NMHS and its users; (II) recommend to NMHS the most efficient way of cooperation with users; and (iii) propose to users how to integrate/apply hydrometeorological information and formulate their needs for it.

User needs for hydrometeorological information in Turkmenistan were assessed in two stages on the basis of review and sum-marizing of a number of efforts.

First, NMHS experts identified the NMHS development priorities proceeding from the analysis of its current conditions, user needs (as perceived by the NMHS), and knowledge of opportunities provided by modern hydrometeorology. This survey is based on the questionnaire developed during preparation of the National Hydromet Modernization in Russia and further tailored to esti-mate the economic benefits from the improved quality of hydromet services following the modernization of national meteorological services in the ECA region.

Second, the key users’ needs in hydrometeorological services were assessed in order to prepare recommendations on building Turkmenhydromet’s capacity to provide synoptic/meteorological/hydrological services and information, as well as hydrometeo-rological hazard and disaster warnings to the national Government, economy and population. The assessment targeted the most significant (in terms of GDP share) industries/sectors that are vulnerable to EHHs and HHs.

The user needs assessment was based on a special checklist developed by the World Bank using WMO materials, World Bank earlier studies, and the Questionnaire on Assessment of User Needs in hydrometeorological Information previously used for a survey conducted with the assistance of the regional project Swiss Support to NMHS in the Aral Sea Basin.

These studies identify the following priorities:• Accurate and timely, location specific, warnings of hydrometeorological hazards, including assessments of the impact of hydrometeorological hazards associated with current warning information to mitigation measures• Current hydrometeorological information (real-time) and forecasts (up to 3-days, from 3-15 days, and up to 4-6 months) and climate data (1-month and 1-year periods) of all of the primary hydrometeorological and related environmental indica-tors. In general all of these products are needed at a much high quality, quantity and more timely than currently available.


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• Historical data on water flow/runoff, precipitation and air temperature events generated for of water flow/runoff, precipi-tation and air temperature. • Assessments of changing hydrometeorological hazards associated with climate change and climate variability to support long-term mitigation and adaptation efforts. • More effective interaction between qualified Turkmenhydromet staff and users through targeted consultations and joint training workshops.

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

The economic assessment sought to estimate the potential benefits that accrue to business activities in the country from the improved quality (accuracy and timeliness) of the hydrometeorological information and services delivered by Turkmenhydromet following its modernization. The benefits associated with the economic value of hydrometeorological information for the household sector were not assessed given the time and financial constraints. The value of potentially saved lives and reduced injuries was also beyond the scope of the assessment.

The recommendations concerning the technical and technological status of Turkmenhydromet and priorities in upgrading its hydrometeorological service were based on: (i) assessment of the current level of observation and forecasting of weather hazards, and the warnings for the population and economy of the country; (ii) obligations under the international and intergovernmental agreements and treaties of Turkmenistan; (iii) analysis of the performance of the current international projects for rendering as-sistance to NMHS; (iv) needs of the national economic sectors in hydrometeorological service provision; and (v) analysis of the current NMHS status and opportunities to support the operational system.

Two modernization options were considered while elaborating recommendations for Turkmenhydromet. The Large scale in-vestment program option (USD30.0 million), that will help to upgrade Turkmenhydromet capacity to fairly good level is offered as the basic option in the assessment of economic benefits of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization. It is expected that the basic option will be implemented within 4 years with maximum inflow of investments during third and fourth years of program implementation.

There are a number of complexities in the assessment of economic benefits for Turkmenistan even more complicated and scarce to that observed in the other countries of ECA region where the team has undertaken economic review of weather related damages. The main concern is the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses (both in physical and value terms) incurred by the economy, its sectors and population from the entire range of EHHs and HHs, the team experienced difficulties in applying several complementary approaches to double check data and ensure the integrity of the results, due you the lack of interagency information exchange and information disclosure issues. Very often sectoral experts reported about the complete absence of the required data on records and economic assessment of losses in their sectors due to the lack of interest and guiding documentation (statistical methodology) in sectoral decision-making process.

The economic efficacy of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmarking, and some estimates from meteorological risk assessment where proxy data was available and seemed to be reliable. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the benchmarking assessments.

Benchmarking is used to determine the level of annual direct economic losses and the level of annual preventable losses, which can be used to calculate the marginal efficacy of a potential improvement of services following the modernization of the NMHS.

The benchmark results indicate that the average annual amount of direct damage associated with hydrometeorological phe-nomena was about USD42 million or 0.57% of annual average GDP. The estimated annual economic benefit of the proposed modernization program is about USD17.7 million. This means that within 7 years, the economic benefit of the modernization would be about USD124 million. The corresponding economic efficacy of the investment in the modernization over 7 years would be about 413%.

Turkmenistan could get an even higher actual economic benefit from implementing the Program as the above appraisal has not taken into account some other components of an economic effect from the Program implementation, such as improving the opera-tion of households. Additionally, upgrading the system of forecasting and warning of any hazardous hydrometeorological events would contribute to improving the living standards of local residents, especially within the areas affected by floods and mudflows, to securing the transport safety, especially the safety of aircraft, off-shore hydrocarbons extraction, marine transport & pipeline transport, and to resolving any tasks in the area of environmental safety. Therefore, the obtained value may be considered a “lower bound”: actual economic benefits may be much larger.

PROPOSED MODERNIZATION OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

Modernization of Turkmenistan NHMS is primarily aimed at reducing the risks to human lives and economy as a result of weather and climate phenomena. Efforts to achieve the above objectives include modernization and technical upgrading of the


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NHMS, and implementation of activities to optimize the institutional structure, improve the scientific and methodological basis, provide professional upgrading of the staff, and establish quality control of hydrometeorological data.

As a result of project implementation the national and regional public authorities, sector ministries and population of Turkmeni-stan will receive better weather forecasts and climatic data, which will, in turn, facilitate economic growth and enable to safe hu-man lives by taking the required preventive measures at the national and regional levels.

Performance indicators of the proposed project include at least 10-fold increase in the amount of meteorological data and products obtained from various sources, restored system of marine observations in the Caspian Sea coastal region and tempera-ture-wind atmosphere sounding sites, improved measurement accuracy of major meteorological parameters, increased accuracy of weather forecasts (by 6-8% for daily forecasts and by 15% for 3-7 day ones), improved system of measurement data transition within Turkmenistan, saving of the national fund of hydrometeorological data, improved accuracy of stream flow measurements on the Amu Darya River and Kara Kum Canal, transfer to an improved model of Turkmenhydromet operations. The latter task requires institutional changes, improvements in the scientific and technical base of the NHMS and strengthening of technical ca-pacity through implementing advances working methods, staff professional upgrading and strengthening of the financial status of Turkmenhydromet.

Investment options were selected on the basis of the following considerations. First, it is required to create conditions for Turk-menhydromet to perform major functions on hydrometeorological support of economic development. Second, Turkmenhydromet’ capacity to produce timely forecasts of unfavorable and hazardous weather events must be restored and improved. Third, it is required to strengthen the institutional and management structure, improve staff qualification and ensure financial and economic sustainability of Turkmenhydromet. Fourth, efforts should be made to ensure fulfillment by Turkmenistan of its international obliga-tions under WMO membership, as well as other international agreements both in terms of the qualitative and quantitative compo-nents of produced observational data.

Financial sustainability of project outcomes will depend on the proper functioning and maintenance of Turkmenhydromet infra-structure – both the existing and newly established one. Above all, it should be emphasized that, despite the evident shortage of funds, the Service has managed to maintain its functioning during the recent years though it had to overcome considerable difficul-ties related to the lack of measuring instrumentation, expendables, spare parts and materials. As a result, a considerable part of equipment remained operative not only till the end of service life but much longer. However, one has to note that the NHMS had to reduce the program of observations which in turn had an impact on the quality of observational data.

Reliable operation of equipment and systems will be ensured in case Turkmenhydromet is able to systematically follow the principles of service life management, including the replacement of equipment upon expiration of the designed service life.

When developing scenarios of reorganization and transfer to the improved performance model, it is recommended to consider the following changes aimed at improving management efficiency and quality of hydrometeorological services provided to public authorities and economic entities:

• Reorganize the structure of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology in Ashgabat to separate administrative and operational functions in the central office, establish departments responsible for network management and scientific/method-ological support, and a department performing organization of hydrometeorological services to users and management of the observational network in Akhal velayat (region); • Strengthen velayat (regional) HMC as major providers of services to regional users and individual economic entities, and centers of data collection from the observational network and dissemination (making available to users) of hydrometeorologi-cal information and products;• Divest aviation meteorological centers (AMCG) of the task to collect data from the observational network, removing them from the structure of velayat HMC and transferring under the management of the Aviation Meteorological Center in Ashga-bat;• Consider project proposals to equip the Service with modern information technologies for the production and dissemina-tion of information products.

NEXT STEPS

Financing of the Action Plan will likely be a combination of governmental funds, concessional financing from international fi-nancial institutions (IFIs), and international and bilateral donors’ support. The Action Plan will also be an integral part of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (CAREC DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters.

The CAC DRMI incorporates three focus areas: (i) coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) financ-ing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. The initiative would be coordinated by World Bank, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World


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Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the CAREC umbrella. The Initiative will build on the existing cooperation that already exists in the region, and will complement and consolidate activities of the IFIs, the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN agencies, regional cooperation institutions, bilateral donors such as the Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC), Japan International Coop-eration Agency (JICA), and others to promote more effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. It was agreed by donors and international organizations to convene in November 2009 a regional Central Asia Workshop aimed at improvement of hydrometeorological services and early warning systems. It is hoped that specific approaches towards funding commitments as well as regional coordination and implementation modalities will be made during this workshop.


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CHAPTER 1. KEY WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS

1.1. MAIN GEOGRAPHICAL AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS1

Turkmenistan is located in south-western part of Central Asia between 35°08’ and 42°48’ of northern latitude and 52°27’ and 66°41’ of eastern longitude, bordering in the north and north-east with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in the south and south-east with Iran and Afghanistan. The Caspian Sea is Turkmenistan’s western boundary with a 1,768 km long coastline (see Figure 1.1).

The territory of Turkmenistan stretches for 1,110 km from west to east and 650 km from north to south. The area is 491.2 thou-sand sq. km (almost all of which is land surface), making it the second largest country in Central Asia, after Kazakhstan.

Topography of the country is highly diverse. Turkmenistan’s average elevation is 100 to 220 meters above sea level, with its highest point being Mount Ayrybaba (3,137 meters) in the Kugitang Range of the Pamir-Alay chain in the far east, and its lowest point in the Transcaspian Depression (100-110 meters below sea level). Nearly 80 percent of the republic lies within the Turon Depression, which slopes from south to north and from east to west.

A dominant feature of the republic’s landscape is the Kara Kum Desert, which stretches from the northern to the southern bor-der and occupies about 350,000 square kilometers. Shifting winds create desert mountains that range from two to twenty meters in height and may be several kilometers in length. Chains of such structures are common, as are steep elevations and smooth, concrete-like clay deposits formed by the rapid evaporation of flood waters in the same area for a number of years. Large marshy salt flats, formed by capillary action in the soil, exist in many depressions, including the Kara Shor, which occupies 1,500 square kilometers in the north-west. The Sundukly Desert west of the Amu Darya is the southernmost extremity of the Qizilqum (Russian spelling Kyzyl Kum) Desert, most of which lies in Uzbekistan to the north-east.

Turkmenistan’s mountains include 600 kilometers of the northern reaches of the Kopetdag Range, which it shares with Iran. The Kopetdag Range is a region characterized by foothills, dry and sandy slopes, mountain plateaus, and steep ravines. The Kopetdag Range is undergoing tectonic transformation, meaning that the region is threatened by earthquakes such as the one that destroyed Ashgabat in 1948 and registered nine on the Richter Scale.

Piedmont areas with insignificant snowcapped mountain peaks occupy the eastern and south-eastern parts of the country. Rock masses in the south, south-east and east have some impact on planetary scale aerial currents, and provide a natural barrier to humid air masses coming from the south-east. From north and north-west the country is open to western, north-western and northern intrusions of humid cold air that define the weather regime over the Turkmenistan territory. When approaching the mountains, the fronts coming from north and north-west slow down often generating wave disturbances. Along the mountain foothills is a belt of oases, which are fed by mountain streams.

Turkmenistan has a continental and extremely arid climate. Mean annual temperatures in Turkmenistan are positive except in northern areas. Summers are long (from May through September), hot, and dry, while winters generally are mild and dry, although occasionally cold and damp in the north. Average winter temperatures in January vary from +2-3°С in the south to –3-4°С in the north. Winter thawing occurs over the whole Turkmenistan territory. The absolute winter temperature minimum in some days is between -30 and -36°С. July is the hottest month (August in northern areas). Average air temperatures in July over the flatland are up 28°С in the north and 32°С in the south. The absolute air temperature maximum over the most of the territory is between +42 and +45°С reaching +48°С in the desert area. Wide ranges of air temperature are common, which is characteristic of a continental climate.

The largest amount of precipitation (about 250 mm) during the cold season (October – May) occurs in piedmont areas with an uneven annual distribution of monthly precipitation in the central desert area. Turkmenistan’s location in subtropical latitudes (35-43° N) defines high levels of solar radiation influx over its territory. The largest amount of solar energy in Turkmenistan occurs during June-August. A long length of sunlight is typical for Turkmenistan: as an average in the east, the Center and south east of Karakum Desert it reaches 2800-3095 hours. In the north, an average year of sunlight constitutes 2940-2970 hours.

The average wind pattern is defined by local barometric circulation conditions, and changes significantly with the transition from warm season to the cold one. During the warm season, the predominant air currents are determined by the south-western edge of the Siberian anticyclone. In the cold season, the wind pattern depends on the weak barometric depression that forms over Turkmenistan during this period. In the desert area, north-easterly and easterly winds predominate in winter, making up 38% of the total number of observations in other that zero wind conditions. North-westerly winds (up to 50%), combined with low recurrence of winds of other directions, are typical of the desert and partially for the piedmont areas. In western Turkmenistan easterly and south-easterly winds are noted with no marked predominance of any specific direction, which is related to the weakening of the Siberian anticyclone and frequent incursions of cyclones from the southern Caspian region and from the north-west.

The wind pattern in Turkmenistan changes dramatically during the warm season when air masses from extreme northern lati-tudes intrude to central areas of the country. Under these conditions north-westerly, northerly and north-easterly winds dominate (with their 35-55% recurrence in July). 1 This section is based on background materials prepared by the Turkmenhydromet experts (Ergashov, M., 2005; Boltayev, D., 2008a and 2008b).


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Fig

. 1

.1:

Ma

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f T

urk

me

nis

tan


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Box 1.1 Climatic Regimes in Turkmenistan

Local winds are observed in summer in mountains and sea coastal areas. On-shore winds occur at the Caspian Sea coast. Mountain winds are noted after the sunset and last until sunrise. Winds blowing from the valley towards the mountains dominate in the daytime. Fohn winds are noted in the piedmont area. Winds caused by local cyclonic conditions formed by the mountains are also observed. Near Kyzyl Avrat, easterly winds dominate in winter, their intensity sometimes approaching that of hurricane (up to 45 ms-1).

Water resources are scant in Turkmenistan. Almost 80 percent of the territory of Turkmenistan lacks a constant source of sur-face water flow, and extensive canal systems are crucial for irrigation and drinking water supplies from external sources.

The main rivers of Turkmenistan are located only in the southern and eastern peripheries; a few smaller rivers on the northern slopes of the Kopetdag are diverted entirely to irrigation. Total amount of the surface water produced internally is about 1 billion cm/year. The major source of water supplies is the Amu Darya River, which has a total length of 2,540 kilometers from its farthest tributary, making it the longest river in Central Asia. The Amu Darya originates in the mountainous Pamir’s region of Tajikistan east of Turkmenistan and forms part of the country’s border with Uzbekistan. The river’s average annual flow is 1,940 cm per second. The Amu Darya River inflow supplies more than 90 percent of the water for all sectors of Turkmen economy. Annual amount of surface water renewable resources secured through treaties compounds 23.4 billion cm2. Other major rivers are the Tejen (1,124 kilometers); the Murgab (852 kilometers); and the Atrek (660 kilometers). Water from the Amu Darya and the Murgab is diverted into the Karakum Canal (built during the Soviet period) to supply water to the arid southern portions of Turkmenistan.

2 For all types of water resources are given FAO estimates as of 2007 (Aquastat database, 2009) .

Semi-desert climatic zone.

Mean annual temperature equals 15.6оС. Annual amount of precipi-tation varies from 180 to 250 mm. Cold season precipitation (85-95% of the annual amount) prevail in this zone. The western part of the zone is affected by Atlantic, Black Sea and Caspian cyclones while the eastern part is usually influenced by southern cyclones (South Cas-pian, Murghab and Upper Amu Darya). The central part is subject to the influence of north-western and northern cold invasions and dry masses of Arctic air. A high-pressure belt is located over the semi-desert zone during the cold season, which is associated with fair and lowwind weather. At the same time, frequent cold air outbreaks cause increased winds and cloud amount.Average air temperatures in January range from –1.6° in the west to 1.1° in the east, short-term temperature falls are possible to –28° in the east and to –35° in the north, as well as temperature increases to +12°-16°. In summer, where the average July temperature is 31.4° temperature frequently reach +40-45°. Droughts, hot winds and dry weather conditions occur frequently in the semi-desert zone.

Desert climatic zone.

A desert zone occupies the most part of Turkmenistan territory (about 80%) and includes three major types of deserts: clay, sandy and rocky. The zone is characterized by highly continental climate and low mois-ture content. Yearly evaporation rate exceeds precipitation amount by a factor of 10 or more, and by 20 to 70 times during the three summer months. Mean annual temperature rises up to 16.5° while the amount of precipitation decreases to 90-130 mm per year. The climate in this zone is generally noted for a long hot summer, rather cold winter for these latitudes, large annual and daily tempera-ture variations, dry air and small cloud amount. During the warm season, active transformational drying and heating of incoming air masses are observed leading to the formation of lo-cal continental tropical air. The winds of predominantly north-easterly direction are weak with high recurrence of calm conditions. The daily wind pattern is typically continental: calm conditions dominate in the evenings and at night, in the daytime the wind increases reaching maximum strength in the afternoon hours.January is the coldest winter month with average temperatures rang-ing from –3.2 to –4.8°С. At the same time, even during the coldest winter months, temperatures can occasionally reach +12-22°C. The total amount of precipitation during the cold season makes up 60-84% of the annual amount. The passage of cold fronts is usually ac-companied by dust storms. Anomalously high summer air temperatures are related to the devel-opment of thermal depressions. The warm season is noted for frequent droughts occurring during hot winds, moderately dry and dry weather conditions. Winter is characterized by high weather instability and variability, es-pecially in the northern part of the zone where frequent changes of positive and negative temperatures are observed.Summer in the desert zone is long, hot and dry with weather being stable and noted for dryness, dustiness, lack of clouds, and large daily variations of air and soil temperatures. In the daytime, the soil surface may warm up to 78° while at nights during invasions it can occasion-ally drop down to 0°.

Mountain and piedmont areas.

Mountain and piedmont areas in Turkmenistan demonstrate a marked vertical variation in climate. The change of vertical climatic zones occurs in the same way as that of horizontal ones.


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Within the country, water is distributed by an extensive network of irrigation canals totaling more than 30,000 km in length, the majority of which are open and unlined.

Groundwater resources cannot be fully utilized since most of the aquifers are relatively deep and remote from the main agricul-tural consumption areas making the costs of extraction and conveyance prohibitive. The amount of groundwater presently utilized is very low (some 0.36 1 billion m3/year).

The majority of the lakes in the country are salty. The Caspian Sea forms Turkmenistan’s entire western border. Yaskhan and Topiatan located in the Uzboya valley are the fresh water lakes. In the mountains there are the lakes of karst origin Kouata (in the Bakharden cave) and Khordjunly (in the Kugitangtau).

Ashgabat (the capital of Turkmenistan) is located in the southern part of the country. Turkmenistan is divided into five administra-tive regions (velayats): Ahal, Balkan, Lebap, Mary and Dashogus each consisting of several districts (etraps). The main sea port of Turkmenistan is Turkmenbashi (former Krasnovodsk) on the Caspian Sea.

1.2. WEATHHR AND CLIMATE RISKS AND THHIR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC

IMPACTS

1.2.1. WEATHHR, CLIMATE AND WATER HAZARDS: CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATOLOGY AND

IMPACTS

A standard classification of hydrometeorological events and unfavorable weather conditions by intensity and impact on the economy and population is used in Turkmenistan. By these criteria extreme (high impact) hydrometeorological hazards (EHHs), including hydrometeorological disasters, and hydrometeorological hazards (HHs) are identified. A list and description of major EHHs and HHs, which observed in Turkmenistan and monitored and forecast by Turkmenhydromet are is given in Annex I. Most of the EHH/HHs criteria essentially remained unchanged since Soviet times (up to 1990). In view of Turkmenhydromet experts, those criteria should be further developed with due regard for local nature/climate peculiarities and economic conditions.

Turkmenistan territory is noted for diverse climate conditions and uneven economic development; therefore, the spatial scale of hazardous weather events and conditions should be also taken into account, as they can cause economic damage of the local, territorial or regional level. Thus, according to the official criterion (see Gidrometeoizdat, 1972) defining high air temperature as hydrometeorological hazard the one lasting for at least ten days with temperature above 45о С, is unjustified. Such conditions rarely occur even in Central Asian countries. According to modern standards, given that increased air humidity raises the heat load on a human organism, air temperature above 40о С should be considered as hazardous event regardless of the duration period.

Over 18 types of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena occur in the country every year. They include: high and low air temperatures, droughts, frosts, strong wind, dust storms, snowdrifts on roads, heavy precipitation, floods, high water, mudflows, Ice jam on rivers, storm surge at the Caspian Sea, dense fogs and etc., that impose damages to the national economy and industry.

Turkmenhydromet carries out collection, maintenance and storage of data on hydrometeorological hazardous events and unfavorable weather conditions causing economic damage.

Historical records on specific types of EHHs and HHs are incomplete. Database is stored in hard copies and updated as ap-propriate. No zoning (mapping) of climatic recurrence of the above events has been carried out. However, observational data enable identification of the areas of frequent occurrence of these events. Frosts occur over the entire territory, except southern areas. Dust storms occur in the Central Kara Kum Desert, northern and central flat areas in Balkan velayat, central and northern areas in Akhal and Mary velayats, south-eastern areas in Lebap velayat. Droughts occur in Dashoguz velayat, Kara Kum Desert, northern areas of Balkan, Akhal and Mary velayats. Heavy precipitation occurs in the piedmont and southern areas. Floods occur along the whole length of the Amy Darya River, and short duration rainfall flooding occurs in floodplains of small rivers – Murgab, Tedzhen, Atrek and Sumbar.

Floods and mudflows. Floods and mudflows often occur in mountain basins of small rivers flowing down from south-west-ern, north-western and north-eastern slopes along the Kopet Dag, and more rarely from mountain slopes of the Big and Small Balkhana. The greatest flood and mudflow activity is noted in rivers Murgab, Tedzhen, Firyuzinka, Sumbar, Atrek, Sekizyap, their channels and some shallow gullies. Rainstorms are the main factor of mudflow generation in Turkmenistan. Intensive snow melting only occasionally can cause floods or mudflow. Short destructive floods and mudflows frequently occur in mountain and piedmont areas in spring. Mudflows cause enormous damage to populated areas and economy. They wash out crops, destroy dams and irrigation facilities, take off bridges, and erode unpaved roads, highways and railways.

Strong wind. Strong winds represent one of the most widespread hazardous weather events in Turkmenistan. The wind is considered strong if the wind speed exceeds 15 m/s. The speed equal to 20 m/s is a criterion of a hazardous event, and 30 m/s – that of a particularly hazardous one. Strong wind damages buildings and industrial facilities, complicates all kinds of traffic, destroys crops and trees. Strong winds are classified into local and front ones. Local winds occur in specific geographical areas. Front winds occur at the interface of two macrosynoptical formations, i.e., are related to atmospheric fronts.


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Dust storms. Dust storms usually start at the wind speed 8-12 m/s, and cause significant deterioration of visibility. Vast masses of sand in the Kara Kum Desert at strong wind facilitate dust storms that occur in Turkmenistan all year round. The largest number of days with dust storms is noted in Central Kara Kun Desert and Kopet Dag piedmont areas where the storms are predominantly caused by cold intrusions and south-western periphery of the Siberian anticyclone. The highest recurrence of dust storms is observed in the Central and partially South-eastern Kara Kum areas, eastern part of the country and south-eastern coast of the Caspian Sea.

Droughts. Drought is one of the major natural disasters. So far there are no reliable drought forecasts. Agricultural meteorology widely uses various techniques and approaches to identify the onset of droughts. Major meteorological indices for drought evalua-tion include the amount of precipitation, air temperature, vaporability and heat balance. Reduced productivity of agricultural crops is an agronomical drought indicator. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) is one of the commonly used drought indicator in agrometeorology in the FSU. If HTC < 1, the period is considered droughty, and HTC < 0.4 means that a very strong drought has occurred. Dryness criteria for Turkmenistan, with due regard for climate peculiarities, are defined as follows: 0.6 and more – weak drought, 0.6–0.4 – strong drought, 0.4 and less – severe drought. The probability of a drought in Turkmenistan is of 50-75 %. Damage to agriculture caused by droughts is rather significant. In drought years the yield on dry (boghara) land comes down up to 20-40 %. Though the influence of drought in irrigated regions is mitigated, the agricultural crop capacity decreases up to 30 %.

Droughts represent a critical problem for Turkmenistan since 80% of the country is occupied by the Kara Kum Desert. Successful operation of cattle-breeding farms directly depends on pasture productivity defined by climate conditions of the territory. Depen-dence of pasture vegetation on droughts is more evident. In drought years the simultaneous influence of the soil and atmospheric droughts accelerates withering of pasture vegetation by 15-20 days, and its crop capacity decreases (Table 1.1).

In dry years grasslands burn out in the sun before multi-year terms, and productivity of pasture vegetation may reduce by 50-70%. Severe droughts occurred in 2000 and 2001 caused considerable reduction in pasture grass productivity. In 2000, desert pasture productivity made up 40-70%, and in 2001 – 43-58% of the multi-year norm.

Dry winds. Dry wind is a particular case of an atmospheric drought complicated by wind. Dry winds frequently cause very significant damage to the national economy. For example, cotton plant just once exposed to a strong dry wind may lose up to 60-80% of their blossoms. Weak dry winds annually occur throughout the whole country territory. Strong dry winds are observed in south-eastern, southern and south-western areas. Severe dry winds are noted only near Tagtabazar and Koitendag (Charshanga). Air humidity deficit at 1 p.m. is usually taken as a dry wind criterion. Dry wind weather conditions occur if the air humidity deficit at 1 p.m. amounts to 50 Mb; at 60-90 Mb a strong dry wind may occur, and if the air humidity deficit exceeds 90 Mb it means that a severe dry wind is possible.

Frosts (spring and autumn). Frosts occur when air or ground temperature falls below 0°С during the vegetation period at the background of positive daily average air temperatures. Frost information is, above all, required to evaluate frost susceptibility of the area, calculate the timing of sowing, decide on the appropriate location of the most heat-loving crops, perform agricultural and climate assessment of agricultural crop growing in spring and autumn seasons. Spring and autumn frosts annually occur in Turkmenistan creating unfavorable conditions for the growth and development of agricultural crops, and often restricting the utili-zation of climatic resources in vegetation period. In some years frosts cause considerable damage to agriculture reducing yields in certain areas.

Spring frosts. Late spring ground frosts are considered more significant that air frosts in terms of their potential adverse impact on agricultural crops. Spring frosts have radiation character and occur at the background of rather high daytime temperatures. They can destruct shoots of heat-loving crops including cotton, as well as seedlings of vegetable crops planted in ground. Spring ground frosts usually terminate 5-15 days later than air frosts. According to multi-year observations, spring ground frosts stop in northern areas on April 10-12, in western, central and piedmont areas – on March 25, and in eastern areas – on March 20.

Meteorological station

Number of years of

observation

Years with

droughts

Recurrence, %

Years with droughts Duration of droughts, months

Normal Medium Strong Very

strong

2 3 4 5 >5

Intensity

Chelecen 72 41 55 32 1 3 5 4 1 0 1 2Ashgabat 93 45 48 42 9 1 3 8 2 0 1 2Bairamali 95 57 60 44 7 2 4 5 2 2 2 2Gushgy 57 33 58 23 7 3 9 2 1Repetek 60 30 50 22 3 2 3 8 1 2 2

Turkmenabat 90 60 67 48 6 3 3 4 1 4 2

Source: Ministry of Nature Protecti on of Turkmenistan. 2000. R E P O R T on implementati on of the UNCCD in Turkmenistan. Ministry of Nature Protecti on of Turkmenistan. Nati onal Insti tute of Deserts, Flora and Fauna. Ashgabat.

Table 1.1 Recurrence of droughts of different intensity and duration in Turkmenistan .


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Autumn frosts. First autumn frosts are a signal of further temperature decrease. The crops, having more or less safely survived the first wave of cold, further suffer the second, then the third ones, etc. and finally die or lose their yield. The latest dates of first au-tumn air frosts (early December) are noted at the south-eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. Autumn frosts in mountain and piedmont areas at altitudes 400-500 m usually occur on November 15, and in northern areas – in early December. Ground frosts occur about 10-15 days earlier than air frosts.

Heavy rainfall. Rainfall of 12 mm and more within less than 12 hours is considered as significant precipitation and refers to hazardous weather events. In case more than 30 mm of rain fall within the same period the event is considered as especially hazardous. Long incessant rains and short-term rainstorms cause congested traffic, erosion of roads, flooding of foundation ditches and basements. In addition, they cause mudflows. One should note that in some cases incessant rains may become a factor of special hazard and cause catastrophic damage to many sector of economy.

The probability of heavy rainfall in Turkmenistan is very low and makes up only 1-6% of the total number of days with precipita-tion. However, damage caused by such precipitation within a short time period often amounts to catastrophic level.

Extreme heat. Based on the requirements of economic entities, air temperature exceeding 40о С regardless of duration of occurrence should be considered as a hazardous event. The zone of unfavorable heat conditions encompasses the whole Turk-menistan territory except the mountain, far northern and Caspian coast areas. The highest temperature zone where the absolute temperature maximum exceeds 45о С is located along the upper Amu Darya river stream, including the central and south-eastern part of the Kara Kum Desert, as well as in southern areas. For example, absolute temperature maximums were noted in 1944 in Repetek (50.0о С) and in 1958 in Tagtabazar (47.7оС).

High temperatures cause a very large damage to agriculture. Hot and dry summer air burns the plants causing falloff of ovary on cotton and fruittrees. Recurrent hot temperature days represent a special risk to the economy. The impact of high temperatures (above 45° С) during several days may reduce cotton productivity by 10-30%. The annual number of days with high air tempera-ture (above 45° С) ranges from 14 to 50.

Severe frosts. In Turkmenistan, air temperature below -10оС and lower refer to hazardous weather conditions; and when the lowest temperature of -25о С and below persists for 5 days and longer it is considered an especially hazardous event. At tempera-tures below 25о С many subtropical crops such as orange, mandarin, fig, pomegranate, walnut, grapes, etc. die or froze down to roots. Severe cold (below -25о С) causes death of animals at pastures. Low temperatures significantly impede the operation of main gas and oil pipelines, motor and railway transport, as well as communal facilities. The annual number of days with low air temperature (below -10° С) ranges from 0 to 34.

Heavy snowfall. The distribution pattern of solid precipitation is highly inhomogeneous. The highest recurrence is observed in northern, north-eastern and piedmont areas. Recurrence of significant solid precipitation is the highest in Dashoguz velayat, south-eastern part, mountain and piedmont areas. Large masses of snow accumulated on the peaks of the Kopet Dag ridge during abrupt rises of air temperature in spring create the risk of floods and mudflows causing significant damage to dams, populated areas, agricultural crops and power lines.

Heavy hail. Hail causes considerable damage to agriculture. The amount of damage depends on the size of hailstones, their density, deposition intensity, as well as on the type agricultural crops. Although hailing is a rare and short-term event, it may cause enormous damage to the affected area within a short time period. Hails with the size of hailstones ranging from 5 to 30 mm are observed in Turkmenistan. 6-8 mm hailstones may damage cotton and vegetable shoots, and those over 10 mm – sunflower, corn and orchards. Hails with hailstones of 30 mm and more cause significant damage to everything located in the open. The highest recurrence of hails in noted in piedmont areas along the Kopet Dag ridge.

Dust cyclone. Apart from local dust storms, catastrophic dust storms – dust cyclones – intrude in the country every 8-15 years along the line of Baghdad – Teheran – Kopet Dag – Ashgabat – South-eastern Kara Kum Desert transporting vast amounts of loamy dust from Arabian and Iranian deserts. The amount of dust deposited on the ground after a dust cyclone makes up 6-30 tons per hectare. Dust cyclones are usually accompanied with squally winds, hail and heavy rainstorms causing catastrophic destruc-tion within the passage area.

Box 1.2 gives examples of extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events (EHHs and HHMEs) experienced in Turkmeni-stan. These examples show to what extent the economy and population of Turkmenistan are exposed to the unfavorable weather impact and what damage they have to suffer.

Box 1.2 Examples of extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events that caused significant economic losses

to the economy of Turkmenistan.

On 20 September 1995 a dust storm with wind speeds of 30-32 m/s was experienced in Kopetdag and Ashgabat. In Ashgabat it uprooted hundreds of trees, crashed power line poles and tree trunks, broke power line cables, ruined roofs of many houses and damaged some indus-trial and engineering facilities. The depth of dust deposit was 4-6 mm amounting to 58 tons per hectare. On 2 July 2005 a snowtriggered flood occurred on the Amu-Darya (Atamurat and Turkmenabat cities). Water discharge amounted to 7000 m3/s. It broke the first order dam, submerged floodplains, cotton and rice fields and resulted in deigish (strong washing away of banks). Eco-nomic losses were estimated at 176 billion manat.


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The data above demonstrates growth of number of occurrences EHHs/HHs, such as mudflows and floods, heavy rainfalls, dust storms, droughts, dry hot winds, high and low temperatures. It stems, interim, from the changes in precipitation patterns ob-served recently. The changes of observed multi-year total precipitation data (by intensity) from Ashgabat station for 1980-2007 are shown on Fig. 1.2.

With no significant changes in total annual precipitation, changes of its pattern are obvious: heavy precipitation has been increasing significantly though low precipitation almost has not changed, and amount of moderate precipitation has been even constantly decreasing during the considered period. The linear trend drawn in the diagram of extreme precipitation values oc-curred during the same period (Figure 1.3) shows that starting from 1995, the extreme value of total precipitation and the deviation of values have been increasing. This confirms the observation that though the amount of precipitation gradually decreases, their intensity is increasing, and, therefore, they become more hazardous.

On 9 February in the Geokdepe region a hurricane wind reached the speed of 29-33 m/s. It ruined 20 km of power lines, tumbled 31 VL-220 kW LVK-1 ferroconcrete poles and tore off roofs of 28 houses. On 20 May 2007 a snowmelt flood occurred on Amy-Darya (Atamurat and Turkmenabat cities). Water level reached 286 cm, water dis-charge – 4080 m3/s. Water flooded a floodplain, crop areas, cucurbits, rice and cotton fields. In January 2008 due to extended severe colds in the eastern regions of the country (rare for the particular region – down to minus 270C) Amudarya River was frozen – this caused the river’s water level to rise and created a threat of floods and possible failure of hydro-technical constructions. Those conditions have created Ice blockades on the Amudarya River also caused destruction of a pontoon-bridge, used for transportation of cargoes from China, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan through the territory of Turkmenistan, to Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Russia. On 2021 February 2008 strong winds were recorded in several regions of Turkmenistan: Cumbar – 17 m/s, Syrayazy – 12 m/s, Mary – 20 m/s, Y-Ashlyk – 18 m/s, Anev – 19 m/s, Birata – 12 m/s. Economic losses suffered by the energy sector of Turkmenistan alone amounted to 1 billion 33 million manat.

Source: Turkmenhydromet.

Type of event 1985-2007 1986-1995 1996-2007

1 Floods and mudfl ows 50 16 342 Strong wind, hurricane, squall 2618 1326 12923 Dust storms 505 215 2904 Drought 14 5 95 Dry hot winds 712 310 4026 Spring frosts 131 63 687 Autumn frosts 97 61 368 Heavy rainfall 192 76 1169 Extreme heat 736 298 43810 Severe frost 99 41 5811 Heavy snowfall 21 6 1512 Strong hail 26 15 1113 Dust cyclone 2 1 1

Total 1699 759 676

Source: Turkmenhydromet

Table 1.2 Frequency of occurrence of hydrometeorological hazards in Turkmenistanin 1985-2005 by

types of events

For the purpose of this study Turkmenhydromet conducted experts’ ranking of EHHs and HHs observed in Turkmenistan, involv-ing experienced meteorologists, hydrologists, weather forecasters, agricultural meteorologists and other experts. The following major parameters of these events were taken into account: recurrence frequency, intensity, spatial extent, as well as potential economic and social damage. Table 1.2 presents the ranking list of EHHs and HHs in descending order of their damaging impacts along with number of their occurrence during 1985-2007.


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1.2.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATES

METHOD OF ESTIMATES

Socio-economic impacts of meteorological risks (in the aggregate and by types of EHHs and HHs) were intended to be esti-mated on the basis of the integration of losses suffered by the economy from specific hydrometeorological events (e.g. by mudflows and floods, strong wind, etc).

Two parameters are used to estimate the meteorological risk of impact of certain events on the economy: (i) hazard of event impact (or its climate frequency/frequency of its occurrence);(ii) vulnerability to event impact (an absolute value of economic losses caused by the event in case of both correct and incor-rect forecasts/warnings Economic damage caused by hydrometeorological hazards is estimated in two stages. At the first stage climate hazard of

impact of different events (their climate frequency) was estimated on the basis of climate data. At the second stage vulnerability of the economy to impact of specific HHs and EHHs was estimated.

Figure 1.3: Observed extreme precipitation in 1980-2007, mm/day (Ashgabat

meteorological station))

Figure 1.2: Total precipitation by intensity in 1980-2007 in mm/year (Ashgabat

meteorological station)


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SOURCES OF INFORMATION

Statistical data on economic losses due to EHHs/HHs is not available, and most likely is absent due to the lack of guidelines and/or official methodology. Inspection of emergency site is conducted under coordination of Commission for Emergency situa-tion. In case of hydrometeorological emergencies joint commissions comprising representatives of Turkmenhydromet’s hydrome-teorological center and other concerned ministries and agencies are established to review consequences and define the resultant damage. During emergency site visits commission members perform visual inspection of the site, locate and quantify damages, for example suffered by power and communication lines, buildings and residential houses. The identified destructions are recorded by commission members mainly in terms of a qualitative assessment, e.g. “Hurricane tore away house roofs, fell down hundreds trees, telephone and power line poles. Thickness of deposited dust over 6 mm”. In some cases losses are registered in physical units: “20 km of power line destroyed. 31 reinforced concrete supports VL-220 kW LKW-1 thrown down. Roofs torn away from 28 houses”. Turkmenhydromet experts were in contact with the Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations of the Ministry of Defense, but no data on economic losses was provided.

The fragmental estimates of economic losses due to some hydrometeorological emergencies are summarized in the Annexes 3-4. Estimates were obtained by Turkmenhydromet experts through:

1) Compiling available data on value of standard dwelling house, average unit rehabilitation costs for concrete supports of electricity transmission lines, for different types of transformers, hydro-technical structures (dikes, irrigation canalss elements, etc.), unit costs of agricultural crops lost as a result of water logging /flooding. 2) Based on this data, estimates were conducted for hydrometeorological emergencies cases, when the reports of joint emergency commission contained detailed losses registered in physical terms rather specifically. When commission’s reports provided only qualitative description of damages, those losses were compared against the cases supported by data on physical losses with consideration of the hydrometeorological parameters observed prior and during the occurrence of hydrometeorological emergency under review (precipitation data, intensity of water flow in river bed, zone of flood per the records of hydrometeorological observations, etc .)

RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF METEOROLOGICAL RISKS

ESTIMATE OF CLIMATE HAZARD OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS

A hazard of impact of different events will be considered, as mentioned above, through the climate frequency of their occur-rence presented in Figure 1.4 presents recurrence of major EHHs and HHs during 1983-2007. Detailed statistics on the number of specific EHHs and HHs is given in Annex 2.

Fig. 1.4 shows, inter alia, that strong wind (more than 15 m/s), dry hot wind and strong heat (air temperature is higher than 400С) present a considerable hazard in terms of frequency of their occurrence.

Figure 1.4: Average annual frequency of EHHs and HHs occurrence

in Turkmenistan.


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It is seen from the table that at present the accuracy of HHs forecasts is low (0.7). The statistics on the climate frequency of occurrence and forecast accuracy of the most important HHs shows that the need for the Turkmenhydromet modernization is po-tentially high.

ESTIMATES OF VULNERABILITY OF THH ECONOMY TO HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

A response of the economy to the impact of weather is manifested in the form of weather related losses suffered by economic entities of different sectors. These losses differ depending on specific features of the entity’s operation and capacity to resist impacts (technologies, resources, protection measures, adequate hydrometeorological information and capability to take appropriate management decisions for the current moment).

The cost estimate (in TMM billion) of the total damage suffered from EHHs and HHs was estimated only for floods and mud-flows. It was 2,568 in 2002, 194,691 in 2003, 210,485 in 2004, 185,113 in 2005, 176,075 in 2007. In 2006 due to low water on all rivers of Turkmenistan floods and mudflows reaching criteria of EHHs and HHs were not recorded.

Damage estimates for some other EHHs and HHs, for strong wind in particular, were provided. Therefore, below vulnerability of the economy is estimated only with regard to floods and mudflows, recorded together, and strong wind.

Floods and mudflows are among the most hazardous (in terms of meteorological vulnerability and economic losses) hydro-meteorological hazards experienced in Turkmenistan. In view of key parameters of hydrometeorological events into consideration (frequency of occurrence, intensity, area affected and probable economic and social damage) floods and mudflows will rank first (according to the Turkmenhydromet experts). Statistical data on the nuber of floods and mudflows recorded by Turkmenhydromet on the territory of Turkmenistan in the period of 1983-2007 (by years) is given in Annex 2. The statistics shows that in the 27-year period of record 2.1 occurrences of floods and mudflows per year were recorded on the average.

Data in Table 1.2 show that the average annual frequency of occurrence (hazard of impact) of floods and mudflows grows from 1.6 in the period of 1986-1995 to 3.4 in the period of 1996-2007).

In terms of hazard of impact (frequency of occurrence) floods and mudflows rank below such meteorological events as strong wind, dust storms, frosts and heavy rain (see Fig 1.4).

Annex 1.3 gives data on impact of floods and mudflows on the economy and population of Turkmenistan in 1986-2007. Table 1.4 summarizes data on economic estimates of those hydrometeorological phenomena for 2000-2007. The analysis of these data

№ Accuracy of HH forecasts At present ti me1 Floods and mudfl ows 0,942 Strong wind 0,683 Heavy rain 0,454 Strong heat 0,955 Severe frost 0,50

Average value for all HHs 0,70

Note: The Forecasts Department of Turkmenhydromet does not provide forecasts of EHHs with excepti on of fl oods and mudfl ows (0.88), and strong winds (0.5). As for HHs, forecasts are provided only for events presented in the table. The accuracy of forecasts is esti mated by the following method: a number of forests – n and a number of accurate forecasts n1. is counted. The accuracy of forecasts – p for each HH is calculated separately for each year (20032007): p = n1/n. Aft er that average values are derived3.

Source: Turkmenhydromet esti mates

Table 1.3 Accuracy of forecasts and warnings

Indicators 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2000-2007Average economic losses per 1 event :

At 2006 prices, TMM billion 2.5 19.2 64.0 48.7 105.2 61.7 88.0 55.2 At 2006 prices, USD million 0.2 1.8 5.9 4.5 9.7 5.7 8.1 5.1Frequency of occurrence of fl oods and mudfl ows 2.85

Average annual losses, TMM million (at 2006 prices) 157.4

Average annual losses, USD million (at 2006 prices) 14.5

Source: Turkmenhydromet data and authors’ esti mates

Table 1.4 Floods and mudflows (annual economic losses per occurrence in prices of 2006)

The accuracy of forecasts of these events is given in Table 1.3

3 Forecasts division of the hydrometeorological Center should continue to estimate the accuracy of EHH and HH forecasts so that in the future it would be possible to assess the extent to which the accuracy of EHH and HH forecasts and warnings increased due to modernization and technical upgrading of Turkmenhydromet.


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shows that economic losses suffered from floods and mudflows during this period vary from TMM10 billion (or USD 0.9 million) to TMM256 billion manat (or USD 23 million). This allows average annual economic losses to be estimated in the amount of TMM 55 billion or USD 5.1 million in prices of 2006.

Annual average economic losses of Turkmenistan from floods and mudflows (based on the assessment of average economic losses per one event and frequency of occurrence in 2000-2007 as of 2.85) can be therefore estimated at USD14.5 million in prices 2006 (or about TMM157.4 billion, i.e. some 0.22% of the average annual GDP of the country for the same period).

Frequency of floods and mudflows occurrence (2.85) determines hazard of impact of these events on the economy of the country and average annual economic losses (TMM 157.4 billion) characterize vulnerability of the economy to impact of these events. These two parameters in turn determine the current meteorological risk of impact of floods and mudflows on the economy and population of Turkmenistan.

Strong wind (wind patterns are briefly described in Section 1.1)4 is one of the most commonly encountered meteorological events in Turkmenistan (see Table 1.2). If we take key parameters of hydrometeorological events into consideration (frequency of occurrence, intensity, area affected and probable economic and social damage) strong wind will rank second after floods and mudflows (according to the Turkmenhydromet experts). Statistical data from Table 1.2 show that by frequency of occurrence (haz-ard of impact) strong wind rank first, and it should be noted that dust storms are also caused by strong wind.

Statistical data on strong wind occurrences (stronger than 15 m/s and stronger than 20 m/s) recorded as HHs and EHHs on the territory of Turkmenistan in the period of 1983-2007 (by years) are given in Annex 2. The statistics shows that in the 25-year period of record there were 28.3 occurrences of wind stronger than 20 m/s and 93.1 occurrences of wind stronger than 15 m/s per year.

Table 1.5 gives examples of types and economic losses associated with recent strong winds emergencies when no warnings were issued.

A strong wind hazard is also determined by the fact that normally it is a convective phenomenon (especially in the warm pe-riod) occurring locally and due to this its forecasting is difficult. This fact is confirmed by data provided by Turkmenhydromet (see Table 1.3) showing that the accuracy of strong wind (as a HH) is 68%.

Strong wind causes maximum economic losses when the event is not forecasted and no warning is issued. Fragmental data are also available in Annex 3 documenting economic damages in the energy sector.

According to Table 1.5 conservative estimates of annual average losses per one registered emergency caused by strong wind is at the level of USD0.2 million (or TMM1.7 billion) in prices of 2006. It means that when NMHS does not provide forecast/warning average annual maximum economic losses from impact of strong wind (stronger than 20 m/s) on the economy and popu-lation of Turkmenistan can be as high as USD4.5 million (or 49 billion manat) in prices of 2006, i.e. 0.06% of the average annual national GDP. If strong wind as a HH is also considered, economic losses will be significantly higher. Below general assessments of strong wind impact on the economy are given taking into account hydrometeorological services currently available.

Climate frequency of very strong wind (28.3) determines hazard of impact of these events on the economy of the country and average annual economic losses (49 billion manat) characterize vulnerability of the economy to impact of these events. These two parameters in turn determine the current meteorological risk of hurricane strong wind impact on the economy and population of Turkmenistan.

In recent decades extreme weather and climate events in Turkmenistan became more frequent, more intense and longer in du-ration. Dust storms, floods and mudflows, abrupt temperature changes, droughts, hail and other natural hazards took human lives and undermine the economic development. Turkmenistan continues to be highly vulnerable to environmental damage, particularly

No Date Event Region Size of damage, in TMM million 1 03.08.03 Hurricaneforce wind, 30

m/sGeokdepin region, village of Copetdag

1 428

2 24.02.04 Squall wind, 26-30 m/s village of Geokdepe 2 360 3 24.02.04 Hurricaneforce wind, 28-

32 m/sArchman resort, Baharden etrap

1 320

4 09.02.06 Hurricaneforce wind, 29-33 m/s

Geokdepin region 1 474

5 04.04.06 Squall wind accompanied by rainstorm

Akbugdai (Gyaurs),village of Yashlyk

805

Source: Turkmenhydromet and sectoral experts’ data

Table 1.5 Strong wind (maximum economic losses suffered in case of no warning)

4 In Turkmenistan a wind is assumed to be strong beginning from 15 m/s. Reaching 20 m/s it becomes a HH, reaching 30 m/s it meets the criteria of an EHH. Strong wind leads to physical damage to buildings and industrial structures, complicates all types of traffic and damages crops and trees.


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with regard to fragile, arid ecosystems and limited water resources. Limited water resources, high level of water mineralization, secondary salinization in irrigated land; as well as wind and water erosion in the arid zone are the main causes of the degradation of agricultural land and remain priorities for the government.

1.3. WEATHHR-DEPENDENCE OF ECONOMY

In this study weather-dependence of the country’s economy is characterized by the total share of weather-dependent sectors in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As was shown all sectors of the economy are exposed to impact of EHHs and HHs either directly or indirectly. However a degree of impact differs depending on type of activities and technological process of a specific sector as well as on what tools and technologies are used to incorporate hydrometerological forecasts and services into manage-ment decision and protection measures.

A list of weather-dependent sectors was determined by the experts of the NHMS of Turkmenistan on the basis of official statisti-cal information and clarified based on the survey among experts from weather-dependant sectors. The list includes agriculture, mining industry (oil & gas operating at the Caspian region, first of all), transport and communication, energy sector, construction (see Table 1.6).

Sector 2004 2005 2006 AverageAgriculture 18.35 18.25 17.54 18.05Extracti ve industries:

Crude Oil producti on Natural Gas producti on

3.209.15

3.229.97

1.6911.86

2.710.33

Transport and communication 5.45 6.08 4.80 5.44Energy 0.38 0.43 0.31 0.37Construction 6.03 5.53 5.12 5.56Total weather-dependent sectors 42.56 43.48 41.32 42.5

Source: WDI database

Table 1.6 Share of main weather-dependent sectors in GDP (% of GDP)

An averaged share of main weather-dependent sectors of the Turkmenistan economy in 2004-2006 was 42.5% of the GDP. Taking into account that in this study a lower estimate of economic efficiency of Turkmenhydromet operation is determined, it can be taken as the initial estimate.

Agriculture (18.1% of GDP – an average value for three years) is exposed to weather conditions most of all, and to a consid-erable extent determines the level of overall losses suffered by the economy. Agriculture ranks first in terms of weather-dependence due to its specific features, i.e. permanent exposure to weather, seasonal character of operations, vast territories and the lack of efficient protection measures against EHHs and HHs. The agricultural production and its plant growing and animal husbandry sec-tors, first and foremost, are exposed to almost the whole range of extreme and hazardous weather events and conditions over the course of a year. The lack of efficient protection measures is most noticeable when frosts, dry hot wind and drought occur.

More than 45 percent of the labor force employed in the agricultural sector. Cotton is the primary crop, and Turkmenistan is one of the world’s leading producers of the fiber. However, Turkmenistan’s hot, dry climate and scarcity of water resources make cotton production very susceptible to the different hazardous weather events including the drought.

Turkmenistan’s government has encouraged some shift away from cotton cultivation, with the goal of diversifying crops and achieving selfsufficiency in food production. Although the principal food crop is wheat, Turkmenistan must import large quantities of the grain. Other cereal grains, vegetables, and fruit are also grown in the country. Livestock raising is also important, especially of Karakul sheep, horses, and camels. Although the collective (state-run) farms of the Soviet period have been reorganized into farmeroperated associations, the government continues to play dominant role in the sector. For example, it establishes production targets for wheat and cotton harvests and requires farms to supply state orders for those crops at regulated prices.

Since agriculture in Turkmenistan is mostly irrigated, the lack of water in rivers or hydrological drought in the vegetation period (April-September) is extra-hazardous, especially in spring and early summer. According to data from the Scientific Information Centre of the Interstate Commission on Water Coordination (ICWC), water volumes at Toktogul and Nurek ended last year some 20% and 9% below historical averages, respectively. These low levels raise uncertainties about the availability of irrigated water for agriculture in the “downstream” Central Asian countries (particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) during the spring and sum-mer of 2009 (UNEP, 2009).

The alternation of extremely dry and wet years is typical for the strongly continental climate of Turkmenistan. The analysis of long-term data shows that light and severe droughts occur in Turkmenistan equally each accounting for 22-30% of the total number


25

of occurrences per year and moderate drought accounts for 41-52%. Concerns about the possible continuation of 2008’s drought conditions have led the US Department of Agriculture to forecast 25% declines for the 2009 winter wheat harvest in Turkmenistan (UNEP, 2009).

Most of the country is uninhabitable desert, only 5 percent of the country’s total land area is cultivated, nearly all of which (23,000 sq km) is irrigated. The population is largely concentrated along the courses of the Amu Darya River and the Karakum Canal which supports the capital Ashgabat. Turkmenistan is almost completely dependent upon water flowing from its upstream neighbors. Hence, water shortage is a key cross-sectoral concern that needs significant efforts to improve water management system. Land degradation comprise waterlogging and especially salinization in agricultural areas due to overirrigation and severe drainage problems—with half of the country’s irrigated lands considered to be in an unsatisfactory state.

Production of natural gas and oil is the cornerstone industry in Turkmenistan (13% of GDP). Hydrocarbon exploitation grounds Turkmenistan’s economic policy, with energy export revenues remaining the pillar for government. According to EIA esti-mates, total primary energy balance in 2006 amounted to 17,268 ktoe, of which natural gas supplied 71% and crude oil – 29%. Turkmenistan is the region‘s largest producer of natural gas, with output of 72.3 billion m3 in 20075. Domestic consumption was around 18 billion m3 in 2007. Oil production output is about 9 million tons.

In line with a long-term agreement signed in 2003, Russia is the main importer of Turkmen gas and – if gas and transportation capacity are available – current exports to Russia of around 48 billion cm/y could increase to as much as 70-80 billion cm /y after 2009. Exports along Turkmenistan‘s other current export route through the pipeline that runs from the Korpedzhe field to Kurt-Kui in the North East to Iran (6.2 billion cm in 2007), were interrupted in December 2007 with gas supply being strained by a dispute over pricing and also by exceptionally cold weather. Exports to China along a new pipeline from south-east Turkmenistan are scheduled to begin in 2009/2010 (IEA, 2008).

Technology modernization and extension of the fuel processing industry, development of the infrastructure for selling finished products are the major aspects of the programme on oil and gas industry development6. Since the new processing plants are put into operation, from early 2000 to early 2009 liquefied gas production has increased as much as 15 times and made up 0.3 mil-lion tons of liquefied gas a year. Such a rapid increase in productivity required development of transport infrastructure for exporting domestically produced products to foreign markets7.

Energy products, primarily natural gas, are the largest export item. The country also produces important industrial minerals, including gypsum, iodine, bromine, sulfur, and salt. Aside of this the production, industry in Turkmenistan is limited mainly to food processing and textile production.

Energy sector (power and heat supply), contributing about 0.4% 0f GDP is selfsufficient in terms of domestic fuel supply. It has prospects for the increase of electricity exports to the neighbors. Development of distribution network and its safe management is highly dependent on weather conditions considerations under the country’s climate conditions and needs for adequate adaptation measures to climate change.

Transport and communication sector accounts for up to 5.4% of GDP. Access to the Caspian Sea makes Turkmenistan’s transportation situation less difficult than that of other Central Asian republics. Since 2000, substantial work has been done to restore infrastructure, which was in general disrepair, and to extend domestic and transit routes. Major new road and railroad projects are progress.

Construction sector currently contributes more than 5.6% of national GDP. This sector demonstrates fairly high dynamics and, to this end, will need more reliable and comprehensive hydrometeorological information and forecasts for design and construction. It includes nowcasting, short- and mid-term forecasting and HHs warnings to ensure work safety. Weather extremes projections and impacts of climate change are important for long-term investment projects.

The other weather dependant sector, which is less significant now, but is gaining very rapid growth is tourism, Over USD1 billion will be invested in the unique project that is coordinated by the Committee for Avaza National Tourism Zone established in October 2008. To support development of tourism industry in the Caspian region the extended transportation, energy, engineer-ing and communication infrastructures are under construction. The 7-kilometer artificial river with running sea water to be con-structed by Turkish Polimeks and Ichkale will adorn the tourism zone. Pleasure boats will furrow the river with the bridges thrown across. The worldclass airport under construction there will be an important transit point on the air routes from Europe to South and South-eastern Asia. The seaport will be modernized and the national fleet will be replenished with motor ships, yachts, pleasure boats (Turkmenistan: the golden age, 25.05.2009).

5 Natural gas was provided free of charge to residential consumers and is subsidized for industrial use. 6 In recent years in collaboration with a number of the foreign companies catalytic cracking and reforming units, diesel fuel hydrotreatment plant, lubricating oils and polypropylene production plant, AT-6 raw material atmospheric distillation unit, aviation kerosene treatment unit, etc. were built and put into operation at Turkmenbashi oil refineries that significantly contributed to withdrawing petrochemical products, increasing the depth of oil refining and producing high-octane gasoline. 7 For this purpose the special terminal was put into operation. 6 liquefied gas vehicles and 16 railway wagons can be loaded simultaneously at this terminal. The reservoirs with the total capacity of 6,000 tons were built to store the necessary reserves of liquefied gas. Construction of the first liquefied gas terminal on the Caspian coast has been launched at Turkmenbashi complex of oil refineries. Nowadays liquefied gas is exported from terminal by road and rail to Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Armenia, Georgia and the national market. Construction of sea terminal in Kiyanly, where liquefied gas will be loaded in tankers was conditioned by increased production of this valuable raw material and prospects of further extension of the industry.


26

Table 1.7 provides the data on the weather-dependence of the national economy in Turkmenistan and in a sample of ECA countries where the World Bank conducted an economic assessment of efficacy of potential NMHS’s modernization programs (see World Bank, 2008c), In general weather-dependence of the economy of Turkmenistan is described as “relatively low” (42.5%), but close to lpw bound of this category. Turkmenistan shows a greater balance between agriculture and industry. The weather-dependence category of Turkmenistan is comparable with those of, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan, but signifi-cantly lower than those of Armenia and Georgia, where agriculture is the main contributor to weather-dependence and accounts for 25 and 30% of GDP (see Table 1.7).

Country Share of weather-dependent sectors, %

of GDPShare of agriculture, % of GDP

Azerbaijan 51 12

Armenia 69 30

Georgia 62 25

Kazakhstan 43 7.0

Turkmenistan 42 18

Tajikistan 61 20

Kyrgyzstan 48 32

Source: World Bank. 2008.c and author’s esti mates

Table 1.7 Weather-dependence of Turkmenistan and comparator countries where simi-

lar studies were performed

1.4. SUMMARY

Turkmenistan is a largely desert country situated in the western part of Central Asia, with intensive agriculture in irrigated oases and large gas and oil resources. One-half of its irrigated land is planted in cotton; formerly it was the world’s tenthlargest producer. Turkmenistan’s territory is frequently affected by high and low air temperatures, droughts, strong winds, and dust storms, floods and mudflows, etc. Agriculture contributes to about 18% of GDP of the national GDP and noted for its highest vulnerability and exposure to weather and climate hazards. As a whole, weather dependency of Turkmenistan’s economy is ranked as “relatively low”: 2/5 of its economy is sensitive to adverse weather phenomena.


27

CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OF TURKMEN

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

2.1. LEGAL, ORGANIZATIONAL AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS, STAFFING

2.1.1. BRIEF HISTORY

The history of weather observations in Turkmenistan covers many decades and dates back to 1891 when the Main Geophysi-cal Observatory (Saint-Petersburg) established the first meteorological station in Ashgabad City. The station performed 3-term observations according to a standard program. In 1904, the second meteorological station was opened; in 1910, an agrome-teorological station was established (at an experimental agricultural station in Ashgabad suburb) and 2 hydrological stations at the Amu Darya River; in 1928, actinometric observations were initiated.

Since 1934, meteorological services have been provided to aviation, and in 1937 atmospheric radiosounding observations started. During 1930-40, new meteorological stations were established, hydrological stations were opened on Etrek, Tedzhen and Murgab rivers, and first climate data summaries appeared. In 1970, the scope of NHMS responsibilities was significantly expanded: air, water and soil pollution observations were set up, and in 1979, following the Resolution of the USSR Council of Ministries, the Hydrometeorological Service Department was reorganized into the Turkmen Republican Department for Hydrome-teorology and Monitoring of the Natural Environment. During the last decade of the twentieth century the NHMS for some years was part of the Ministry of Nature Use and Environmental Protection, and since 1997 operates as the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan.

2.1.2. NMHS ACTIVITIES

The work of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (Turkmenhydromet) is governed by Turkmenistan Law on hydrometeorological Activities of September 15, 1999 #392-1, and Regulations of the Na-tional Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Turkmenistan Cabinet of Ministers of January 15, 1998 #3492.

Turkmenhydromet is a public authority responsible for the implementation of the national hydrometeorological policy and meeting the needs of the national economy, defense industry and population of Turkmenistan in the information on actual and expected changes in hydrometeorological conditions and their consequences.

Turkmenhydromet provides short-, medium- and long-term weather forecasts, hydrological forecasts including those of the beginning and extent of flooding, formation of rainfall floods and mudflow development, as well as marine and agrometeorologi-cal forecasts.

Weather forecasts for 1 day, 2-3 days, 7 days and once a month for 30 days are made for public authorities, all information products being disseminated in hard copies before the beginning of working day. In addition, storm warnings about hazardous hydrometeorological events are communicated on a real-time basis.

At the request of industries, short-term weather forecasts and information on actual weather (in hard copies) are provided, as well as storm warnings about hazardous hydrometeorological events (on a real-time basis).

Radio and TV broadcasting offices receive daily and weekly weather forecasts, and newspaper editorial offices – weekly and monthly weather forecasts (all in hard copies).

The regulatory and methodological framework for the operation of NMHS structural subdivisions is provided by manuals and guidelines on the organization and implementation of meteorological, hydrological, marine and agrometeorological observa-tions, data transmission and processing, production of various advance time forecasts and warnings about extreme and hazard-ous hydrometeorological events. NHMS departments are using manuals and guidelines that were in force at the USSR hydrome-teorological Service before 1992. Since then the NHMS has performed no scientific and methodological research on how to improve the existing manuals and guidelines and adjust them to modern conditions. The only exception is meteorological support provided to aviation – the Manual on Services Provided to Aviation was brought into compliance with international requirements and approved by the Head of the NHMS in 1999.

As part of cooperation between NMHSs in CIS countries, Turkmenistan should consider requesting these countries (for exam-ple Russia, Uzbekistan) to provide their manuals and guidelines on the organization and implementation of hydrometeorological observations and provision of services to users, initiate methodological work to adapt them to local conditions in Turkmenistan, and after approval adopt these documents as a regulatory framework of Turkmenhydromet operation.

Annual reports on NMHS activities do not appear in printed form. Instead, summarized information on the performance of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology is compiled on an annual basis and submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers of Turk-menistan.


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2.1.3. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE

NMHS institutional structure is based on functional and territorial-administrative principles, and includes units and subdivisions at the NMHS Headquarters, and structural units – hydrometeorological centers (HMC) in 4 velayats (regions). HMC functions in Akhal velayat are performed by the HMC of Turkmenhydromet. The diagram (Table 2.1) below presents the names of structural units, their number and numbers of staff members.

Table 2.1

The National HMC (Ashgabat) is essentially the main functional subdivision consisting of several offices: Forecasts, Hydrome-teorology and Climatology Observations, Data Bank and Information. It also includes regional HMСs in velayats with all stations and observation sites, as well as aerometeorological stations (AMSG). At the same time, AMSGs are methodologically reporting to the AMCT (Ashgabat). AMSGs provide meteorological services to aviation, and also serve as centers for data collection and transmission from local ground-based stations.

The HMC Forecast Office consists of 4 units that provide issue of daily, 3-day, medium-term and monthly weather forecasts, as well as storm warnings and notifications about hazardous weather events.

Hydrometeorology and Climatology Observations Office also consists of 4 units: Meteorology Development, hydrometeoro-logical Conditions Research, Climate Information, and Agrometeorology.

The Data Bank and Information Office includes the archive and library. It should be noted that meteorological data archive only exists in hard copies, which largely restricts its usage in evaluations of climate in Turkmenistan, and providing the users with historic national hydrometeorological data. The Klimat Scientific and Technical Center initiated transformation of monthly meteorological data from a limited station network to electronic form through manual entering of data into PC tables.

Arrangements for document storage in the NHMS fail to meet the technical requirements to data storage at a national archive. NHMS library has a highly restricted access to scientific and methodological literature. The first issues of the scientific journal Me-teorologia I Gidrologia (Gidrometeoizdat) have been received by the library only since January 2008.

The Technical Center consists of 5 units and provides technical support to Turkmenhydromet subdivisions (data receipt and dissemination, hardware and software operation, repair and installment of meteorological instruments, and metrological support of observations).

Procurement, Logistical Support and Administrative Support Center consists of 3 units and is located in Bekreve settlement (a suburb of Ashgabat). The Procurement unit (PU) arranges procurement and distribution of expendable materials for all NHMS sub-divisions. Logistical Support unit (LSU) operates a warehouse for instruments, spare parts and equipment to be supplied to HMC and stations. Administrative Support unit (ASU) is responsible for all administrative works at the NHMS in Ashgabat.

Contracts and Public Observations Office implements two independent functions: inspection of network units, and collection of data on contracts with user organizations. The Office is also responsible for contract execution and management in Akhal velayat.


29

Responsibilities of subdivisions within the given structure are currently being specified and in the near future will be approved by the Committee Chairman – Head of the NMHS.

Institutional structure of the NMHS that was historically established in view of its objectives and available professional staff fails to fully meet the modern needs in terms of providing efficient hydrometeorological services for the Socio-economic development of the country, and improving protection of the economy and population from extreme weather events.

2.1.4. REGIONAL CENTERS

NHMS incorporates 5 velayat hydrometeorological Centers (HMC) that include:• Central Office;• Meteorological Stations;• Hydrometeorological Stations;• Hydrological Stations;• Meteorological Observation Sites;• Hydrological Observation Sites;• Agrometeorological Stations;• Aviation Meteorological Stations (AMSG).HMC manages the work of its subdivisions and supplies them with instruments, equipment and expendable materials; performs

data collection and transfer to the National HMC (via AMSG telecommunication systems); provides services to regional authori-ties and local administrations; executes and manages contracts with users, and provides local staff training. The central office of HMC is usually located in rented premises, receives information (normally daily and 2-day weather forecasts) from the National HMC, and makes it available to local authorities by phone or as written reports. Storm warnings about hazardous weather events are reported by phone. Velayat HMCs essentially disseminate the data received from the National HMC and produce no original information products. Contractbased services provided to users also represent the information received from the National HMC.

HMC functions in Akhal velayat (the central region) are distributed among the structural subdivisions of the National HMC. Observations Office supervises the observational network, Contract Office – contractual activities, Forecast Office – information services, etc. As a result, local authorities receive less efficient services since the main attention is focused on providing services to the central authorities – ministries and agencies.

2.1.5. NMHS BUDGET

Until February 2008 the NHMS operations were financed from the State Fund for Development of Transport and Communica-tions of Turkmenistan, and nowadays the funds are provided from the State Budget. In addition to the main account where public budget allocations are credited (salaries, depreciation charges for equipment maintenance and other costs), the NHMS maintains a special account for the proceeds from contractual works performed by the National and velayat HMCs. There was no opportu-nity to review the budget spending targets, therefore evaluation of allocations for operational costs was not conducted.

NHMS is a public agency, and thus is using the cash flow accounting system common for all public institutions in Turkmenistan. Financial operations are supervised by relevant departments of the Ministry of Finance and Control Chamber of Turkmenistan.

2.1.6. STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS

Structural divisions of the NHMS currently employ around 700 people. Average age of staff members is 40 years old (from 18 to 75 years old). Staff number dynamics is given in Table 2.2.

Noteworthy is the existence of vacancies that are difficult to fill for lack of human resources and scarce number of university graduates specializing in hydrometeorology, information technologies and telecommunications. The reasons include low salaries (as compared to other public institutions) and lack of incentive schemes for NMHS staff.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Staff numbers – total 617 618 624 634 638 635 629 712Number of staff members with higher educati on 101 98 90 89 91 100 96 110

Table 2.2 Turkmenhydromet Staff


30

2.1.7. TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADING PROGRAM

Training of specialists in hydrometeorology is provided at the Turkmen State University by the Department of Geography and Nature Use. The Department annually trains 8-14 specialists; however, graduates rarely come to work at the NHMS for lack of interest and low salaries.

In 2008, Turkmenhydromet hired 2 graduates from the hydrometeorological University (Saint-Petersburg, Russia) who were trained under the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program. However, this training opportunity is not currently utilized, and no train-ees are being sent to WMO education centers.

Almost no use is also made of the opportunities for professional upgrading of hydrometeorologists under WMO educational workshops, and training courses offered by Roshydromet Training Center for NHMS of CIS countries.

2.1.8. BUILDINGS, FACILITIES AND CAPITAL ASSETS

All structural subdivisions of NHMS observational networks are provided with land plots in respective areas that were allocated on the basis of Land Use Acts officially registered and approved by the heads of relevant public authorities. The Acts formalize the right to free-of-charge and unlimited use of land plots within the boundaries specified in land use plans.

NHMS owns 91 buildings and facilities with average depreciation amounting to 40 %. Characteristics (number and value) of the main assets are given in Table 2.3.

Office premises of velayat HMC and AMSG are rented and in most cases require repair.After atmospheric temperature-wind sounding was terminated, the buildings of aerological stations were transferred to other

users. Therefore, establishment of temperature-wind sounding sites will require construction of new facilities or erection of platforms at existing meteorological stations.

2.1.9. CONTACTS WITH MASS MEDIA AND COMMUNITIES

Weather forecasts for the current day and subsequent 2-3 days are daily reported to national papers and TV broadcasting in the form of a newsletter. The Head of NHMS appears on TV generally 1-2 times a year. No active cooperation with media is maintained. Contacts with population are restricted to weather information communicated through papers and TV.

NMHS management realizes that active cooperation with mass media should be an important component of NMHS activities to raise awareness of public institutions, private companies and general public about the NMHS, its offices, capacity to provide information on current weather conditions, weather forecasts and warnings about unfavorable weather conditions. However, the lack of technologies to visualize meteorological information and prepare it for broadcasting on TV significantly limits the NHMS activities in this area.

2.1.10. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION

By Resolution of the President of Turkmenistan of November 6, 1992, Turkmenistan acceded to the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and became the full-fledged Member of WMO on January 3, 1993. According to the WMO General and Technical Rules of Procedure, Turkmenhydromet participates in WMO scientific and technical programs, and hydrometeorological data and products exchange based on the principles of free and unlimited exchange of information. In com-

Name Number Net asset value, thousand TMM Depreciati on, %2007 2008

Buildings and faciliti es 91 456 281 123 4-60 416 223 40Measuring equipment 1255 4 106 939 236 4 106 939 236 100Communicati ons 174 561 748 889 561 748 889 90Computers 71 1 723 203 132 1 767 903 137 75Offi ce equipment 471 134 537 180 134 537 180 80Transport 34 910 691 991 910 691 991 95Soft ware 3 14 411 669 14 411 669 50Total net asset value 2099 7 907 813 220 7 974 381 325

Offi ce premises of velayat HMC and AMSG are rented and in most cases require repair.

Table 2.3 Turkmenhydromet Assets


31

pliance with the Law of Turkmenistan on hydrometeorological Activities dated September 15, 1999, the NHMS takes part in the global exchange of hydrometeorological data with foreign institutions.

In compliance with the Agreement on Cooperation in the Area of Hydrometeorology between CIS Countries dated February 8, 1992, Turkmenistan exchanges hydrometeorological data and forecasts with Russia and Uzbekistan. Exchange of data on hazardous weather events is performed based on bilateral agreements with Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.

No separate agreements on hydrometeorology have been signed with the neighboring countries Afghanistan and Iran, and meteorological data from these countries are being obtained under the World Weather Watch through the WMO global telecom-munication system.

During the recent 20 years international financial institutions and donor organizations have been providing insignificant techni-cal assistance to the NMHS.

2.1.11. COMPLETED PROJECTS

According to the decision of the Heads of Central Asian States of April 9, 1999, the following instruments and equipment to develop transboundary monitoring stations in Turkmenistan were provided as part of technical assistance by the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (grant financing by the World Bank and donor countries) and under the GEF Project “Water and Environ-mental Management in the Aral Sea Basin”.

N Equipment Meas.

unit

Number Cost Delivered Locati on

1. Motor vehicle UAZ-3153 item 1 989 800 sums 26 July 2000 Ashgabat

2. Portable petrol generators

GEKO, 5.2 kW

set 6 USD13 201 22 Nov. 2000 Turkmenabat HS

-2 sets,

Southern Collector HS

-1 set

Birata HS – 1 set

Ashgabat – 2 sets

3. Hydrometeorological instruments set 1 DM70 907.88 25 May 2001 Turkmenabat HS

4. Basic radio stati on Kenwood TK-80 item 2 USD8 728 09 Oct. 2001 Ashgabat

5. Hydrometeorological instruments set 1 DM52 375.44 11 Oct. 2001 Birata HS

6. Motor boat Amur-3 2 USD50 000 13 Nov. 2001 Birata HS,

Atamurat HS

7. Hydrometeorological instruments set 1 DM63 330 31 Dec. 2001 Southern Collector HS

8. Motor boat КS-101D item 1 USD4-6 000 25 July 2002 Turkmenabat HS

9. Motor boat Amur3 item 1 USD25 000 28 Nov. 2002 Ogrydzha HS

10. Portable petrol generators EDAA, NEVA, 7.5 kW set 2 USD6 582 08 Feb. 2003

Ashgabat

Total cost: equipment USD149,511.0, hydrometeorological instruments DM186,613.32, motor vehicles 989,800 Uzbekistan sums.

Source: Turkmenhydromet.

Table 2.4 Equipment provided as part of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS)


32

2.1.12. ON-GOING PROJECTS

The following equipment for the modernization of the MessageSwitching Center (MSC) was provided to Turkmenhydromet as technical assistance from Switzerland:

Server PRIMERGY PY Eco200S2a/X 5110/160G,Monitor LCD 19” SCALEOVIEW H191W,CISCO PIX 506E #DES/AES Bundle/(Chassis,SW,@FEPorts,3DES/AES,MOXA CP168 U V2 cabel DB 9,CREATIVE Sound Blaster connect SB0270,(USB)-2,Kingston data traveler secure USB Flach Drive-1GB-2GSM Siemens TS-35USBBitroniks(2 metr)Modem Zyxel U 336 S-12 units.The equipment worth of USD13,786 is in charge of Turkmenhydromet. The NHMS has a good capacity to promote more

active participation of Turkmenhydromet staff in WMO agencies, conferences, workshops and training courses. Efforts should be made to have the Committee Chairman – Head of the NHMS appointed as the Permanent Representative of Turkmenistan with the WMO. This would enable to establish working contacts in the WMO Secretariat, more actively promote applications for technical assistance, and receive WMO scientific publications.

The NHMS must more actively cooperate with the Board of Directors of CIS NMHS, and Caspian Sea Committee (CASP-COM), which will allow extended exchange of hydrometeorological information with other countries in the region.

2.1.13. COORDINATION WITH OTHHR AGENCIES WORKING IN THH FIELD

OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY

The Ministry of Water Management operates a limited hydrological network. NHMS maintains close contacts with the agen-cies of the Ministry, and meets their needs in hydrological information (actual data and hydrological forecasts).

The Ministry of Defense has no sectoral observational network. Forecasting information is provided to air units and border forces to support air operations.

N Equipment Meas.

unit

Number Cost Delivered Supplier

1. Thermometers: ТМ-1

ТМ-2

ТМ-3

Wind meter М-63М-1

item

item

item

item

20

20

20

2

USD 5 510February

1998

FGUP Gidrometpostavka

2. Radiosondes МРЗ-3А c/w batt eries

item

140

February

1998

TOO NTZ

Zond-Postavka

3. Computer VECTRA PC c/w printer

Modem 288LC/144CD

Shells N 150

Electrochemical paper

set

set

item

rolls

2

2

300

30

March

1998

State Meteorological

Service of Turkey

4. Radiosondes МРЗ-3А item 150 USD 10 350 October

2002

FGUP Gidrometpostavka

5. KPIOX measuring and control

module with wire panel set 1 USD9 475,19

October

2002

Campbell Scienti fi c Inc.,

USA

Table 2.5 Equipment provided as part of the GEF Water and Environmental Management in the Aral Sea Basin

Project


33

2.2. OBSERVATION NETWORK, INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES

2.2.1. NMHS OBSERVATION SYSTEM

GROUND-BASED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS

The national hydrometeorological observation network is the basis of the hydrometeorological service of Turkmenistan. Turk-menhydromet operates more than 100 meteorological, hydrological and agrometeorological stations and posts. The past and current status (as of January 2008) of the surface observing network is shown in table 2.6. Overall, the number of ground stations and posts has declined by 40% in the past 20 years.

Type of observati ons Number of stati ons and gaugesBefore 1990s Current status

Meteorological 100 48

Hydrological 58 32

Agrometeorological 56 48

Aerological 6

Aerometeorological 11 6

Acti nometric 7 2

Ozonometric 4 4

Marine hydrological 16 6

Water evaporati on 16 2

Radiati on integrator 1 1

Water polluti on 10

Air polluti on 8

Sediment load 12 10

Source: Turkmenhydromet data

Table 2.6 Turkmenhydromet surface observation network

Currently, the hydrometeorological network’s stations and posts are equipped with approximately 2,000 instruments of 25 different types.

Meteorological observations at stations and sites are performed in compliance with the Manual for hydrometeorological Sta-tions and Sites: Issue 3, Part 1 – Meteorological Observations at Stations (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1985), and according to the observation program specified in the Manual. The list of existing ground-based stations, hydrometeorological observation sites, , types of observations performed by hydrometeorological stations of NHMS of Turkmenistan are given in tables 7-9 of the technical mission report by Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008. The ground-based meteorological network of NHMS of Turkmenistan also includes a number of inaccessible stations (INS) using radio communication lines to transmit information (see also table 10 of the technical mission report by Kotov, V., and A. Zaitsev, 2008).

SYNOPTIC STATIONS

Figure 2.1 shows a map of the current and closed stations of the national meteorological network. Much of the equipment in operation is obsolete.

The entire system and the main hydrometeorological observation network as well as the main principles of operation were developed before mid-1970s and have remained unchanged. Virtually all observations are manually maintained by the staff of the Turkmenhydromet living and working on the ground, which for many of the remotest sites has become increasingly difficult to support despite their importance for accurate weather forecasts. Existing equipment is outdated and requires a lot of maintenance. Some types of equipment have already been withdrawn from production, for example, mercury barometers. Overall, the observa-tional sites at the stations are in good condition, and station managers take care of them assisted by regular inspections performed by the staff of NHMS Inspection Office. However, the communication systems for many of the stations are obsolete and unreliable, which limits the capacity of Turkmenhydromet accessing timely data and making these data available to users.


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HYDROLOGICAL STATIONS AND POSTS

Hydrological stations and observation sites perform standard hydrological observations in compliance with the Manual that had been in use at USSR stations and was never revised by the NHMS Turkmenhydromet. There is a motor boat at the Amu Darya River used to perform hydrological observations.

Amu Darya River basin – river runoff originates from Tajikistan and Afghanistan. There are 6 hydrological observation sites, three of them measuring river stream flow.

• Amu Darya River – Kelif (inlet gauge); water-gauge observations, water level: maximum 692 cm, minimum 335 cm. Communication means should be provided to ensure timely data transmission, and automated unit installed to measure water level and stream flow.• Amu Darya River – Mukry; water-gauge observations, water level: maximum 372 cm, minimum 20 cm.• Amu Darya River – Atamurat (Kerki); water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements, solid runoff measurements. Major transit, observations carried out since 1910; required modernization: automated unit for water flow and level mea-surements. Maximum water level 338 cm, minimum water level 23 cm, maximum stream flow 9210 m3/s, minimum stream flow 240 m3/s, river width 400-2200 m, maximum speed 4.8 m/s• Amu Darya River – Turkmenabat (Chardzhow); water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Observations carried out since 1886; required modernization: automated unit for water flow and level measurements. Maximum water level 408 cm, minimum water level (-61) cm, maximum stream flow 7300 m3/s, river width 150-850 m, maximum speed 4.6 m/s.• Amu Darya River – Birata (Darganata); water-gauge observations, stream flow and solid runoff measurements. Obser-vations performed since 1955; required modernization: automated unit for water flow and level measurements. Maximum water level 516 cm, minimum water level (-19) cm, maximum stream flow 7300 m3/s, bed width 100-950 m, maximum speed 4.5 m/s.• Amu Darya River – Lebap; water-gauge observations. Maximum level 779 cm, minimum level 4-6 cm.Kara Kum Canal – major water intake from the Amu Darya River.• Main facility. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 384 cm, minimum level 27 cm, maximum stream flow 650 m3/s.• Kara Kum Canal – river regulator. Water-gauge observationsAll observation sites are supervised by Atamurat (Kerki) HMC.

Fig. 2.1. Operational and closed meteorological stations.


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Murgap River with tributaries Kashan and Kushka (5 observation sites)

•Murgap River – Soinali, inlet to Turkmenistan territory. Level observation site. Required modernization: automated stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 403 cm, minimum level +1, maximum stream flow 671 m3/s, minimum stream flow 1.56 m3/s, bed width 80 m, maximum speed 3.9 m/s• Murgap River – Takhtabazar. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 705 cm, minimum level –1, maximum stream flow 886 m3/s, minimum stream flow 1.22 m3/s, bed width 130 m, maximum speed 2.9 m/s.• Kashan River – Guldzha (Murgap river tributary). Water-gauge measurements, water sampling for turbidity. Maximum water level 847 cm, minimum level 88, maximum stream flow 565 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 50 m, maximum speed 2.6 m/s.• Kushka River – Railway Bridge (Murgap river tributary). Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements sampling for turbidity. Maximum water level 527 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 744 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 65 m, maximum speed 3.1 m/s.• Murgap River – Saryazy at the outlet from Saryazy water reservoir. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measure-ments. Maximum water level 766 cm, minimum level -55, maximum stream flow 440 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 150 m, maximum speed 2.5 m/sAll observation sites are supervised by Takhtabazar HMC.Tedjen River – Pulikhatum (inlet gauge). Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Required modernization:

automated stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 775 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 1320 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 100 m, maximum speed 4.0 m/s.

Etrek River with tributary Sumbar. 2 observation sites on the Etrek river, and 2 observation sites on the Sumbar

river

Etrek River – Chat (inlet gauge). Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements, sampling for turbidity. Required mod-ernization: automated stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 1814 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 1530 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 250 m, maximum speed 3.5 m/s.

The Chat observation site is supervised by Etrek HMC.Etrek River Etrek. Water-gauge observations. Maximum water level 1243 cm, minimum level – drying out.Sumbar River – Duzlutepe. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 653 cm, minimum

level – drying out, maximum stream flow 709 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 30 m, maximum speed 4.5 m/s.Duzlutepe observation site is supervised by Magtymguly HMC.Sumbar small river Magtymguly (Karakala). Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements, sampling for turbidity.

Maximum water level 828 cm, minimum level – drying out, maximum stream flow 649 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.0 m3/s, bed width 30 m, maximum speed 3.7 m/s.

Small rivers in Turkmenistan

Firyuzinka Archabil. Maximum stream flow 150 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0,03 m3/s.Sekizyap. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 458 cm, minimum level 200, maxi-

mum stream flow 305 m3/s, minimum stream flow 0.40 m3/s, bed width 25 m, maximum speed 3.9 m/s.Ipaikala. Water-gauge observations, stream flow measurements. Maximum water level 238 cm, minimum level 150, maximum

stream flow 259 m3/s, minimum stream flow 1.56 m3/s, bed width 25 m, maximum speed 3.7 m/s.Mudflows annually occurring at small rivers cause significant damage to agriculture; automated stream flow measurements

need to be arranged. Hydrological network requires modernization involving installation of automated hydrological units and introduction of mobile hydrological laboratories.

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONS AND OBSERVATION SITES

Measurement techniques used to perform agrometeorological observations include standard meteorological measurements and observations of plant development stages are shown in Table 2.7.

Table 2.7 Stations performing agrometeorological observations

1. Akmolla2. Akdepe3. Atamyrat 4. Bakharly5. Bereket6. Bairamaly7. Birata8. Burdalyk9. Bugdaila

10. Galkynysh11. Dashaguz

12. Denizkhan 13. Ekedzhe 14. Eloten 15. Erbent 16. Kaka 17. Koitendag 18. Kyoneurgench

19. Margimana20. Makhtumkuli21. Mary22. Seidi23. Serdar24. Tedjen25. Tagtabazar26. Turkmenabat 27. Uchadzhi


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ACTINOMETRICAL OBSERVATIONS

Actinometrical observations performed by meteorological stations are aimed at obtaining data on radiation conditions re-quired for scientific purposes and practical utilization in various sectors of the economy. Major parameters of radiation conditions that are systematically measured at the stations include direct, dissipated and total solar radiation, as well as radiation bal-

ance of the active surface. Direct radiation is measured by actinometer, dissipated, total and reflected radiation – by universal pyranometer and albedometer, radiation balance – by balance meter.

Major parameters of radiation conditions are measured with specified intervals (6 times a day) at stations in Bekrev (Ashga-bat), Akmolla, Repetek, Turkmenabat and Esenguly. All instruments used in actinometrical observations have expired their service life, no full-scale checks and calibrations have been performed in recent years.

MARINE OBSERVATIONS

Marine observations in the Caspian Sea coastal region are performed at 6 hydrological observation sites: Gagabohaz (Bek-dash), Duzlybogaz (Garabogaz), Guvlymayak, Turkmenbashi (Krasnovodsk), Khazar (Cheleken) and Ogryzha (Ogurchinsky). All marine hydrological instruments have expired their service life, are physically obsolete, and fail to meet technical requirements.

A new observation site needs to be established at the Caspian Sea coast near Ekrem, and all marine stations should be equipped with devices to measure oceanographic parameters. It is proposed to relocate the HMC in Balkan velayat to Turkmen-bashi.

CONDITION OF OBSERVATIONAL INSTRUMENTS

All instruments and equipment used at Turkmenhydromet networks have been in operation for a long time, are overage, and most of them must be replaced by modern devices. The service life of instruments has long expired making up 100%. Unless tech-nical upgrading of the NHMS network is performed in the near future, further operation of its monitoring networks will become completely unreliable. Data on the number, condition and list of instruments used by the network is presented in Tables 11 and 12 of the technical mission report by Kotov, V. and A. Zaitsev, 2008. .

REMOTE OBSERVATIONS

AEROLOGICAL STATIONS

Aerological atmosphere sounding was previously performed at 6 meteorological stations: Ashgabat, Dashoguz, Tagtabazar, Turkmenabat, Turkmenbashi and Esenguly. Due to physical deterioration of equipment and instruments and the lack of expendable materials, aerological atmosphere sounding was terminated at 5 stations in 1998, and at Turkmenbashi station – in 2002. Aero-logical sounding equipment and instruments were dismantled, and buildings divested to local authorities.

Temperature and wind sounding sites should be set up at stations in Ashgabat, Turkmenbashi, Esenguly (as a first priority), Dashoguz and Tagtabazar, including the delivery and installation of aerological radars, gas generators, and engineering devel-opment (building) of space to locate the equipment.

TOTAL OZONE CONTENT

Total ozone measurements are performed at 3 stations: Ashgabat, Mary and Repetek. Ozone meters М-124 produced in 1980-s by the Main Geophysical Observatory (Saint-Petersburg) are used. Observational data are submitted to the data bank (archive) and remain almost unused.

METEOROLOGICAL RADARS

MR network is non-existentent at the NHMS of Turkmenistan. The only MR at the Ashgabat airport was put out of operation in 1997 due to physical deterioration and lack of spare parts. To ensure meteorological support of aviation, modern Doppler radars need to be installed at the international airports in Ashgabat and Turkmenbashi.

SATELLITE INFORMATION

The existing system of data receipt from geostationary and polar-orbital meteorological satellites (Tekhnoavia) has exhausted its service life and is no longer in operation. Another reason is the transfer from analog to digital satellite data transmission. At present, two mosaic photo series of TV and IR-images from NOAA-18 polar-orbital meteorological satellite and two nephanalysis


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maps are twice a day transmitted from Uzhydromet via a direct allocated channel Ashgabat-Tashkent. Images from NOAA-15 and 18 meteorological satellites are three times a day emailed from Kazhydromet.

2.2.2. TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL EQUIPMENT

The overall status of metrological support is unsatisfactory. Almost no checking and calibration of meteorological instruments are performed due to the lack or complete deterioration of reference equipment (Fig. 2.2). No verification of reference instruments (comparison with primary standards) is performed. Reference instruments have expired their service life and fail to meet technical requirements.

Verification and calibration of hydrometric current meters have not been performed for several years. Arrangements should be made for verification of hydrological measurement instruments using the capacity of NHMS in neighboring countries.

2.2.3. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN WEATHHR FORECASTING

ROUTINE FORECASTS

Turkmenhydromet produces short-, medium- and long-range weather forecasts that are daily reported to government authori-ties and agencies. Forecasts are grouped into meteorological, hydrological, agrometeorological and marine ones. Generalpur-pose one, two- and three-day weather forecasts are produced on a daily basis for the whole country and for large cities. No seasonal and very-long-range forecasts are produced due to the lack of relevant methodologies. Ranges and types of produced forecasts are given in Table 2.8.

Fig. 2.2 Checking and Calibrating instruments and facilities

Forecast range Lead ti meShort-range 1-3 daysMedium-range 3-10 daysLong-range 1 month and longerVery-long-range Decades and longer

Forecast types Forecasted eventMeteorological (synopti c) Expected weather conditi ons, as well as hazardous weather eventsHydrological Water content of rivers and hazardous hydrological eventsAgrometeorological Spring/autumn frosts, producti vity of pastures and plant phenology Marine Changes in water level and temperature, and storm surge

Table 2.8. Ranges and types of produced forecasts

EVALUATION OF ROUTINE FORECASTS

Forecast evaluation is performed according to the Manual for Weather Forecast Services, Section 2, Parts 3,4,5 (Gidrome-teoizdat, 1982). Table 2.9 shows data on EHH and HH.

Monthly forecasts are produced based on the similar year and general characteristics of expected monthly weather in Central Asia obtained from Roshydromet. No estimates of these forecasts are performed.


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ACCESS TO NUMERICAL MODEL DATA

Turkmenhydromet currently uses no calculations based on global and regional models to produce daily, monthly, seasonal or yearly weather forecasts.

In 2006, V.M. Losev (Moscow HMC) gave to the NHMS of Turkmenistan a special-purpose regional short-term hydrody-namic model enabling calculations directly at the NHMS of Turkmenistan. The technology allows processing of calculations with visualization of meteorological field series, the most important of which being onehour precipitation amounts enabling weather forecasters to forecast evolution and velocity of frontal sheds. The initial set of fields is every day established at the Russian hydro-meteorological Center and sent to the NHMS of Turkmenistan via Internet (е-mail). According to forecast practitioners, resolution of the model fails to meet forecasting requirements. Further development of the model is required or introduction/adaptation of other regional models used by weather services in the region and Europe.

To ensure successful work of weather forecasters and achieve satisfactory forecast reliability, efforts should be made to obtain numerical data of advanced models and results of objective analyses from several forecasting centers. This could be achieved by arranging routine receipt of information via special-purpose WMO communication channels (GTS) with high capacity, and ap-plying modern software for data decoding, storage and visualization.

2.2.4. TELECOMMUNICATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES

COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF DATA AND INFORMATION PRODUCTS

The following tone-frequency (TF) direct communication channels are arranged in Turkmenistan:1. Ashgabat – Tashkent 2. Ashgabat – AMC Ashgabat

NN Event Forecast accuracy1 Strong wind 0.682 Heavy rainfall 0.453 Extreme heat 0.944 Severe frost 0.505 Floods and mudfl ows 0.88

0.691-day weather forecast 0.863-day weather forecast 0.75

Table 2.9 Accuracy of the forecasts of extremely hazardous and hazardous meteorological events

Fig. 2.3 Forecaster’s working place


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3. Ashgabat – AMSG Turkmenbashi4. Ashgabat – AMSG Turkmenabat5. Ashgabat – AMSG Dashoguz6. Ashgabat – AMSG Mary Each of the above channels except the Ashgabat – Tashkent one, uses second-order multiplexer P-327 to generate tone fre-

quency in standard fourwire channels with 0.3-3.4 KHz pass band, two duplex telegraph channels with telegraph transmission speed of 50-100 bauds with telephonic communication being preserved in multiplex channels in the 0.3-2.7 KHz band. Tone frequency is used to retranslate facsimile information from Tashkent to the AMSG network.

Collection of hydrometeorological data from stations and measurement sites in Balkanabad, Dashoguz, Lebap and Mary velayats is based on radial-nodal principle. AMSG collect information across the velayat by switch telegram (ST), public switched telephone network (PSTN), and manually send it to Ashgabat via direct TF channel. Data transmission is performed in reverse order.

In Akhal velayat, data collected from MS Archabil, MS Bakharly, MS Kaka, MS Sarakhs and MS Tedjen is transmitted via PSTN and automatic long-distance exchange (ALDE) to CCS Ashgabat.

In Balkan velayat, data collected from MS Balkanаbat, MS Bekeret, MS Esenguly, HMS Etrek, HMS Guvlimayak, HS Mag-tymguly, MS Serdar, HMS Turkmenbashi, MS Khazar is transmitted via PSTN and ALDE to AMSG Turkmenbashi. Information from HMS Garabogaz goes to AMSG Turkmenbashi via the local communications center. ST units are also available at HMS Etrek and HMS Turkmenbashi.

In Dashoguz velayat data collected from MS Akdepe and MS Koneurgench is transmitted via PSTN and ALDE, as well as by ST to AMSG Dashoguz.

In Lebap velayat, data collected from HMS Atamyrat, HMS Birata, MS Galkynysh, MS Koitendag and MS Seidi is transmitted via PSTN and ALDE to AMSG Turkmenabat. Turkmenabat ATS telephones are installed at MS Repetek and HS Turkmenabat. Data exchange between HMC Lebap and AMSG Turkmenabat is performed via ST and PSTN.

In Mary velayat, data collected from MS Bairamaly, AHMS Elotan, HS Tagtabazar is transmitted via PSTN and ALDE to AMSG Mary. Data exchange between HMC Mary and AMSG Mary is performed via ST and PSTN. Information from MS Mar-giana is transmitted to AMSG Mary via Gazprom communication switchboard. Information from MS Uchazhy is transmitted to AMSG Mary via the railway communication switchboard. Information from HS Denizkhan and HS Saryyazy is transmitted to AMSG Mary via the communications switchboard of the Ministry of Water Management.

Communication with remote hydrometeorological stations in Akmolla, Balkan, Bokurdak, Bugdaily, Burdalyk, Derveze, Duzly-bogaz, Ekedzhe, Erbent, Dushak, Ogryzha, Shansem and Chagyl is provided by radio in telegraph mode by Morse coding, and telephonically using Angara-type radio stations at frequencies 3670, 4320 and 5410 KHz. Kenwood radio station is installed at the central station in Ashgabat. Angara radio stations operating at frequencies 3670, 4320 and 5410 KHz are available at AMSG Dashoguz, MS Burdalyk, MS Repetek and MS Sarakhs.

hydrometeorological data receipt and transmission to the global telecommunications system are performed through the Re-gional Meteorological Center in Tashkent using the UniMASS software and hardware complex performing the function of message switching center.

No significant changes have occurred in qualitative and quantitative data collection indicators during 1990-2007. The list and conditions of communication and support equipment are specified in Table 14 of technical mission findings report (Kotov, V. and Al. Zaitsev. 2008).

Fig. 2.4. Message Switching Center

In the near future, modernization of the Message Switching Center (MSC) on the basis of 64-bit computers and Linux Mandrive 2007 operating system will be performed under the Swiss Support to Asian hydrometeorological Services in Central Asia Program.

In 1998, a Tekhnoavia satellite data receiver was installed at Turkmenhydromet undеr the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Pro-gram. This was used, but broke down and is currently out of operation.

By agreement with Kazhydromet, since December 2004, the NHMS has been receiving information products from SKANNEX


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satellite data receiver (cloud-cover images used to make short-term forecasts). The information comes with frequent interruptions due to the low capacity of communication links.

Information products of the RF-HMC produced using the GIS METEO technology is also used to make short-term forecasts.

Fig. 2.5 Turkmenhydromet Database Archive Storage and Hard

Copies of Observation Data Records

DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING

The historical database of meteorological variables has been stored as hard copies in the form of manuscripts or typewritten texts. Due to the lack of adequate archival facilities, storage of meteorological data fails to comply with the rules of long-term stor-age of paper records. Paper yellows and embrittles with time, records made in ink fade causing the risk of irrecoverable loss of long-term meteorological data, which represent historical climate information.

Major measured meteorological elements comply with the list specified in the Manual for hydrometeorological Stations and Sites (1987).

As the need arise, the information is manually written out from tables (separate year-by-year HMS files) that are kept in the archive in A2 format, which requires a lot of time and effort. Multiple handling of hard copies cause undesirable effects such as torn edges, detached pages, worn off figures, etc.

In 1993-1994, the database of major meteorological elements for Turkmenistan was obtained from VNIIGMI-MTsD on dis-kettes, and subsequently lost. Roshydromet should be requested to reprovide electronic data on Turkmenistan weather stations.

2.2.5. NATIONAL DATA EXCHANGE

The NHMS performs data collection and exchange (analysis, forecasts and warnings) using the departmental network via the NHMS Technical Center and aviation meteorological units (AMCT and AMSG).

The system of data collection and exchange between velayat HMC (AMSG) and the National hydrometeorological Center in Ashgabat requires considerable modernization including the following:

• Introduce modern telecommunication technologies using satellite communication or optic fiber links; • Establish departmental communication hubs and data visualization systems at velayat HMC;• Provide the National HMC and velayat HMC with computer and office equipment;• Introduce a modern satellite data receiver at the National HMC.

2.2.6. INTERNATIONAL DATA EXCHANGE

Turkmenhydromet participation in the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW) is supported via link to analog data exchange arranged between the WMO Global Telecommunications System and the WMO Regional Center in Tashkent. The capacity of this communication link allows only a limited amount of data to be received (facsimile weather maps, textual and digital informa-tion) from the World Meteorological Center in Moscow and Regional Center in Tashkent. The amount of incoming information is estimated as not more than 30 MB due to the low capacity of communication link.

Technical upgrading of the NHMS telecommunications system should provide for expanded range and amount of data ob-tained from the world and regional centers WMOWMC (Moscow), European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (Bracknell, England), Regional Center (Offenbach, Germany), etc. Introduction of modern technologies allowing expanded range and amount of information obtained from the WMO World and Regional Centers should be accompanied with the implementation of visualization systems. It is only in such case, given the retraining of specialists from the National HMC in Ashgabat, that one can expect improved forecast accuracy for Turkmenistan, including forecasts of hazardous weather events.


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2.3. PRODUCTS AND SERVICE DELIVERY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION,

NATIONAL COORDINATION

2.3.1. WEATHHR INFORMATION SERVICES

Generalpurpose weather forecasts are produced usually for 1 day, 3 days, 7 days, and once a month a 30-day forecast is produced. All forecasting data are submitted to public authorities and administrations. Daily forecasts are updated as of the noon of the current day. Storm warnings are reported by phone on a real-time basis. The National HMC has a list of 28 government agencies receiving forecasting data (in hard copies). Forecasts and warnings are also sent to velayat HMC who make them avail-able to local authorities and administrations. At the request of industrial sector agencies, short-term forecasts and actual weather data are provided in hard copies, and storm warnings about hazardous weather events are reported in real time.

Potential users of weather information include: heat and power sector, construction industry, road, air, railway and marine transport, agriculture, oil and gas industry, and housing and communal sector. These sectors use only general weather forecasts rather than special-purpose products.

NHMS performs no systematic work with users concerning the better use of current weather information and forecasts. No focused efforts are made to expand the range of users. Also, no instructional and methodological work is arranged for the special-ists responsible for this area of activities.

2.3.2. CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES

Climate information in Turkmenistan is required for planning and construction of buildings and facilities, assessment of climate variations and change. Climate data bank is available at the NHMS only in hard copies, which restricts preparation of climate information at user request. Climate information services are using the data from the respective volume of the USSR Climate Hand-book (1968) and a reference edition Ashgabat Climate (1984). Evaluation of climate variability in recent decades performed by Scientific and Technical Center “Klimat” is still to be completed.

NHMS should request from the WMO the latest edition of the Guide to Climatological Practices prepared by the WMO Com-mission for Climatology.

2.3.3. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

Agrometeorological Forecast Unit of the hydrometeorological Observations Office prepares 10-day agrometeorological newsletters containing summarized information for the past 10 days of the month on air temperature and humidity, soil tempera-ture and humidity, and providing forecasts of expected blooming periods and other development stages of agricultural crops, fruit trees and mulberry.

The newsletter in hard copies is disseminated to various subdivisions of the Ministry of Agriculture; however, no feedback and comments from users is arranged. Velayat HMCs do not receive agrometeorological newsletters on a regular basis, which signifi-cantly restricts their capacity to provide services to local agricultural users.

2.3.4. HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES

Hydrological Unit of the hydrometeorological Observations Office analyzes information obtained from hydrological stations and observation sites. Short- and long-term forecasts of water flow and level of major Turkmenistan rivers are produced on the ba-sis of calculations. Short-term forecasts are made for 5 days, and long-term ones – for a month or a quarter. In high water periods 5day forecasts are updated on a daily basis. Hydrological forecasts are sent to the Ministry of Water Management (7 users) and design institutions of the Ministry. Close contacts are maintained with the agencies of the Ministry of Water Management, however, cooperation with other users (agriculture, design institutions) is almost non-existentent.

NHMS should request from the WMO Secretariat and implement the Guide to Hydrological Practices (WMO Publication 168).

2.3.5. SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT

STC Klimat (STC) evaluates climate variations and change in Turkmenistan based on observations from the basic meteorologi-cal network of Turkmenistan. Preliminary analyses indicate a noticeable rise in air temperatures and increased drought recurrence. In 2005 a scientific work was published entitled Productivity of Wooded Meadows in Turkmenistan Deserts: Assessment and Fore-cast. The STC initiated transformation of climate information from hard copies into electronic form, which will enable in the future to implement more specific evaluations of climate variations in Turkmenistan.


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A request should be made to Roshydromet to provide a new version of CLIWARE software system (Integrated hydrometeoro-logical Data Management System) developed by VNIIGMI-MTsD.

The Ministry of Nature Protection is responsible for the climate change issue and participation of Turkmenistan in the UN Con-vention on Climate Change. NHMS role in this process is to implement climate observations and provide information on current changes of climate conditions in Turkmenistan.

Scientific and methodological work in other areas of NHMS activities is non-existentent due to the lack of specialists. Notewor-thy is the need to initiate methodological works to adapt Guidelines and Manuals used by other NHMS (e.g., in CIS countries) to Turkmenistan conditions. In recent years the NHMS has not been receiving scientific and methodological literature. It is only in January 2008 that the first issues of the scientific journal Meteorologia I Gidrologia (Roshydromet) were received.

2.3.7. INFORMATION SERVICES PROVIDED AT USER REQUEST

Information services to the users of hydrometeorological data and forecasts are provided by velayat HMC on a contractual basis (Table 2.10). The heads of HMC establish contacts with local organizations in velayats and sign contracts for hydrometeo-rological services. The number and scope of contracts depend on the activity of HMC management. The number and amounts of contracts for the recent 3 years are given in the table below.

It is worth noting that until 2008 proceeds from contracts were transferred to the State Budget and never used to encourage contracting activities. Since February 2008 a special bank account has been open in Turkmenhydromet for the funds generated by velayat HMC under contracts. One should expect expansion of contractbased activities since the generated funds can be used to develop and promote hydrometeorological services.

According to Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, payments for services provided by Turkmenhydromet are to be compensated under the General Agreement between Turkmenhydromet and Turkmenkhovaellary on Mutual Obligations con-cerning Meteorological Support of Aircraft Flights in Turkmenistan, and Resolution of the President of Turkmenistan dated February 3, 1997, # 3004 On Meteorological Services to Civil Aviation.

Air transport sector of Turkmenistan provides the staff of Turkmenhydromet with office space, power supply for meteorological equipment and instruments, dedicated communication lines for transmission and receipt of meteorological information through USW/SW radio channels, wire channels and other communication means to ensure real-time services, protection of meteoro-logical instruments and equipment. Turkmenhydromet specialists also use privileged air tickets when they check the operation of meteorological instruments and perform methodological inspections of the network.

Years Velayats (regions) Number of contracts Contract amounts

2005

Department 8 120 765 244Akhal 28 63 644 664Mary 42 102 094 448Balkan 15 173 510 114Lebap 32 128 970 900Dashoguz 10 41 606 512

Amount 135 630 591 882

2006

Department 10 200 694 660 Akhal 26 39 156 4-65Mary 41 101 197 307Balkan 18 181 201 193Lebap 35 147 127 945Dashoguz 10 55 657 84-6

Amount 140 725 035 416

2007

Department 9 99 013 250Akhal 26 4-6 907 932Mary 36 97 747 456Balkan 14 160 584 855Lebap 28 116 077 304Dashoguz 10 40 924 823

Amount 133 561 255 620

Table 2.10 The number and amounts of contracts (in Turkmen manats (TMM)) executed in 2005-2007

between Turkmenhydromet HMCs and agencies located within their service territory


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2.4 SUMMARY

Turkmenistan has provided meteorological observations and services since the late nineteenth century. In the early twentieth century, the observing network expanded to include hydrological observations, and actinometric measurements. In the 1970’s, the network was further expanded to make more extensive atmospheric, water and air pollution measurements. This was the high point in the capacity and capability of Turkmenhydromet to provide comprehensive meteorological and hydrological services. Since then there has been a dramatic decline in capacity and capability. Today the Turkmenhydromet operates with largely ob-solete equipment and lacks access to modern forecasting methods, which limits its capacity to provide the products and services needed by the public and the economy. All of the Turkmenhydromet facilities are in a poor state of repair; there is insufficient quali-fied staff even to adequately maintain the current network, and limited training opportunities.


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CHAPTER 3. ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS IN

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION

3.1. APPROACHHS TO NEEDS ASSESSMENT

When preparing their modernization programs, NMHS have traditionally focused on the technological aspects of hydro-meteorological service development. Such approach aims at improving forecast accuracy and timeliness. However, inadequate interaction with users usually prevents NMHS from taking into account their actual and especially potential information needs. A complete absence or under development of contacts with users at the modernization package development stage results in a gap between the opportunities and plans of hydrometeorological service provision and understanding of what, how and where NMHS information can be used most effectively to support management and operational decisions in specific sectors of the economy.

This lack of attention to end users’ current and potential understanding of their benefits from better hydrometeorological ser-vices during NMHS modernization may further increase information misalignment8 between a hydrometeorological service and its users. To avoid this, it is essential for NMHSs to build their interaction with users on the basis of modern principles, taking into account users’ interest in NMHS development and demonstrating to them their own and national benefits, including the economic ones.

There are several key factors, which determine the priority, scale and sequence of activities to modernize the National hydro-meteorological Service and improve its institutional structure. These include assessment and recognition of the current status and trends in the needs for hydrometeorological information on the part of governmental institutions, users in major producing and nonproducing sectors of the economy, and the population.

The objectives and expected results of user needs assessment are to: (i) identify the causes and factors of poor interaction be-tween NMHS and its users; (ii) recommend to NMHS the most efficient way of cooperation with users; and (iii) propose to users how to integrate/apply hydrometeorological information and formulate their needs for it.

User needs for hydrometeorological information in Turkmenistan were assessed in two stages.First, NMHS experts identified the NMHS development priorities proceeding from the analysis of its current conditions, user

needs (as perceived by the NMHS), and knowledge of opportunities provided by modern hydrometeorology. This survey is based on the questionnaire developed during preparation of the National hydrometeorological Modernization in Russia (2003-2004)9 and further tailored to estimate the economic benefits from the improved quality of hydrometeorological services following the modernization of national meteorological services in ECA region (2005-2007) .

Second, the key users’ needs in hydrometeorological services were assessed in order to prepare recommendations on building Turkmenhydromet’s capacity to provide synoptic/meteorological/hydrological services and information, as well as hydrometeo-rological hazard and disaster warnings to the national Government, economy and population. The assessment targeted the most significant (in terms of GDP share) industries/sectors that are vulnerable to EHHs and HHs.

The user needs assessment was based on a special checklist (World Bank, 2008b) developed using WMO materials, World Bank earlier studies, and the Questionnaire on Assessment of User Needs in hydrometeorological Information previously used for a survey conducted with the assistance of the regional project Swiss Support to NMHS in the Aral Sea Basin (Tajikhydromet, 2008).

The checklist used to assess the needs of specific weather-dependent sectors included the following substantive survey blocks: • HH influence, by impact type/degree and damage significance (one-time and total);• Relevance of forecast products, and barriers to their uses; • Hydrometeorological information (HMI) sources, types, and delivery channels and formats;• Quality assessment of delivered forecast products;• Requirements to NMHS products formulated with due regard for NMHS modernization;• Assessment of and methodologies for estimating economic damage from EHHs and HHs; and• Recommendations and proposals to Kyrgyzhydromet to improve and customize hydrometeorological services.The results of the sector expert survey may be divided into two major groups:1) General information on the sector’s dependence on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards, on the amount and quality of HMI used by the sector, and on the current efficacy of HMI uses; and2) Information on the potential demand for various information types and presentation formats, accuracy and timeliness of each hydrometeorological element/event forecast required for sector operations, HMI requirements necessary for optimal performance, as well as recommendations and proposals on hydrometeorological service improvement and customization.

8 Information misalignment stems from the fact that NMHS experts do not know all of the details of specific sector operations and, therefore, cannot adjust their products to users’ specific needs and requirements. At the same time, users do not know all of the opportunities of modern hydrometeorology and, therefore, cannot formulate their potential needs accurately and correctly. 9 Tsirkunov, V., M. Smetanina, A. Korshunov, and S. Ulatov. 2004. 10 World Bank. 2008c.


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The survey was conducted with support from Turkmenhydromet staff. Table 3.1 gives a list of sectors/ministries whose repre-sentatives participated in the survey.

The survey participants took part in a consultation workshop on improving the efficiency of weather and climate service deliv-ery in Turkmenistan (Ashgabat, September 30, 2008) where they attended a special session to discuss and update HMI needs assessment of weather-dependent sectors of the economy. Workshop agenda, list of participants and major preliminary findings and recommendations are presented in Annexes 4-6.

A joint analysis of the resulting assessments made it possible to: (i) identify potential user needs and requirements for HMI and information products; and (ii) prepare Recommendations and proposals for the NMHS Modernization Program with due regard to the interests of both parties (NMHS staff and specialists from key weather-dependant economic sectors) in NMHS development, which in turn would allow reducing information misalignment.

3.2 ASSESSMENT OF KEY SECTOR’S NEEDS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL

INFORMATION

3.2.1. TURKMENHYDROMET VISION OF USER NEEDS IN HYDROMETEROLOGICAL

INFORMATION AND FORECASTS

Turkmenhydromet management has an understanding that lack of awareness of the value provided by NMHS limits the avail-ability of public resources for this service. The NMHS also needs to develop an internal capacity to estimate the value of its im-proved operations and products to the economy as a whole, concerning its optimal role in serving national requirements in hydro-meteorological forecasts and information. In order to make investments into the NMHS sustainable it is necessary to study needs of potential users on the basis of maintaining dialog with users from specific sectors of economy, develop standard user-oriented information products and establish feebased services.

11 Aganiyazov, R. 2008. 12 Muhammetnazarov, N. 2008. 13 Bazarov, Dzhumadurdy. 2008 14 Dzhumov, Bayramgeldy. 2008.. 15 Hanmedov, Guvanch. 2008. 16 Association “Turkmengazakdyrysh”. 2008. 17 Bayramov, G., and D. Allayarov. 2008 18 Muhammetgulyev, Deryaguly. 2008. 19 Neznamov, Sergei. 2008. 20 Ministry of Nature protection. 2008 21 National Institute of Deserts, Flora and Fauna. 2008.

Table 3.1 List of Sectors/Ministries Covered by the Survey

Sector /Ministry Structural unitEmergencies (Ministry for Defense) Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations

11

Ashgabat City Branch of Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations12

Agriculture (Ministry of Agriculture) Scientific and Research Institute for Agriculture13

.

Association “Tyrkmenmallary” (Animal husbandry sector)14

Water Management (Ministry of Water Economy). Water Use Department 15

Oil&Gas Industry (Ministry of Oil and Gas and Mineral Resources)

Association “Turkmengazakdyrysh”16

Energy Sector (Ministry of Energy and Industry) State Electric Power Corporation “Turkmenenergo”17

.

Transport (Ministry of Railway Transport ) Department of Ministry18

Communal Services Trust “Ahgabatteplo”19

. Environment (Ministry of Nature Protection) Department of Ministry

20

National Institute of Deserts, Flora and Fauna21


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Close cooperation between NMHS and various sectors is the most efficient way to reduce information misalignment and, therefore, improve the economic efficiency of HMI product uses. Such cooperation is usually based on specialized hydrometeo-rological services. The task of Turkmenhydromet is to provide this information to users in a timely, most adequate and userfriendly way.

According to the Turkmenhydromet experts key factors limiting production and delivery of adequate standard and specialized hydrometeorological information and products are as follows:

• Underfunding of the NMHS, uncompetitive salaries in comparison to other public sector organizations; • Decline of observational networks;• Worn-out equipment, obsolete technology; • Lack/absence of up-to-date instruments (radars), high-resolution satellite meteorological information, modern forecasting techniques (seasonal forecasting); • Inadequate scientific guidance support;• Absence of upper air observations, pasture vegetation surveys, data analysis, systematization and archiving programs; • Staffing problem. At the same the Turkmenhydromet experts indicated the following factors impeding the use of hydrometeorological information

and forecast products:• Current and potential users are not adequately informed about the Turkmenhydromet services and products. • Ministries and agencies do not communicate information on hydrometeorological services and their effective use to their subordinate divisions in the regions, and do not know how to make the most efficient basic use of the hydrometeorological provisions. Often they work in the old way using obsolete methods and not taking into account on-going climate change. • There is lack of feedback from the users to Turkmenhydromet on the quality of current hydrometeorological provisions and specific needs in sectortailored products;• Users lack access to adequate communications systems to acquire meteorological information as rapidly as would be useful. Timeliness of urgent messages, accessibility and understanding of routine messages, design and quality of output products are low; • Current and potential users are not trained in how to make basic use of meteorological information to achieve economic benefit and achieve full benefit of meteorological information without access to specialists who are in short supply. • Potential users do not have basic skills and incentives for incorporating hydrometeorological data into relevant informed management decisions to facilitate damage reduction. To understand the possibilities offered by the present day hydrometeo-rology and basic principles of the effective use of hydrometeorological information and forecast products the assistance of professional hydrometeorologists is needed. Taking into account the mandate of Turkmenhydromet as a NMHS it is not possible to switch hydrometeorological services fully

to contractual basis. At the same time to support sectors of the economy and meet a mass demand for hydrometeorological infor-mation it is necessary to develop specialized, targeted, user-oriented services. A well-balanced strategy and models of interaction with users should be developed which would take into consideration possibilities offered by modernization of Turkmenhydromet and willingness of users to employ various forms of cooperation suitable for their current situation and future demands.

Table 3.2 presents impacts of hydrometeorological hazards to economy and population of Turkmenistan by types of damages. It shows that mudflows and floods, strong winds and dust storms, drought incur the most diversified and damaging cross-sectoral impacts. Observation and forecast of those hazards need priority attention while elaborating NMHS modernization program and improving accuracy and timeliness of hydrometeorological provisions to sectors of economy.

Table 3.2 Impacts of the main hydrometeorological hazards in Turkmenistan

hydrometeorological hazards

Objects aff ected by hazardous events

1 Floods and mudfl ows Flooding of citi es, populated localiti es, agricultural lands, railway and motor roads, destructi on of hydraulic works, bridges, communicati on lines, power lines, death of humans and animals

2 Strong wind Faciliti es, residenti al houses, power lines, communicati on lines, railway, air and motor transport, roads, oil and gas pipelines, constructi on projects, trees, billboards

3 Dust storms Air transport, local populati on, railway and motor transport, power lines, communicati on lines, buildings, residenti al houses, trees, billboards, communal infrastructure

4 Drought Dry land farming, pastures, animals (leads to degradati on of desert pastures) 5 Dry hot winds Rural residents, agricultural crops, pastures, animals (in some cases may lead to cott on yield

losses up to 40%)6 Frosts, spring and autumn Young agricultural crops, fruit trees, autumn output yield 7 Heavy rainfall Crop areas, residenti al houses and buildings, cellars, railway and motor roads, hydraulic

works


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Besides governmental bodies and national and regional administrations, Turkmenhydromet provides its products and informa-tion to agriculture, construction sector, heat and electricity generation and supply industries, aviation, railroad transport, oil&gas extraction industries, communal services. In other sectors the use of hydrometeorological information is accidental or very limited. Currently Turkmenhydromet has limited capacity to provide/develop specialized hydrometeorological services required to those sectors of the economy. Products of the NMHS do not often meet practical needs of users.

In view of Turkmenhydromet experts, improving the efficiency of meteorological services provided to users requires to:• Improve the quality of user-oriented warnings and forecasts though implementing a complete technical modernization of the NHMS, and introducing modern forecasting technologies.• Develop closer contacts with user groups for better understanding of their needs for hydrological and meteorological information.• Evaluate economic efficiency of current HMI and to explain to decision makers and specific users potential benefits of improved weather and climate services delivery• Increase the awareness of local communities and improve local communities’ understanding of and response to meteoro-logical and hydrological warnings.• Participate in the development of efficient mitigation of natural disasters.• Improve relations and coordination with emergency management agencies. • Closely cooperate with mass media.

3.2.2. EMERGENCIES

The Cabinet of Ministers is in charge of natural disaster management in Turkmenistan. The State Commission on Emergency Situations under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (The State Emergency Management Commission – SEMC) is the primary agency in charge of emergency situations that occur throughout the country, primarily natural disasters. SEMC assumes control of all response activities in the event of an emergency situation. The National law defines the roles and responsibilities of the Com-mission.

The SEMC prepares administrative plans for the response to and recovery from natural disasters. It is also in charge of monitor-ing, warning, disaster communication, and public information. It is tasked with developing natural hazard maps for the velayats. It provides damage assessments if needed, and has the authority to call upon international assistance when needed. It develops plans for civil protection and provides training for administrative personnel at all levels about the methods and technology used in response to disasters.

Turkmenhydromet role in disaster management support is limited to provisions of hydrometeorological data and forecasts on extreme hydrometeorological hazards.

At present a special department of the Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan is handling activities of civil defense and rescue operations in emergency situations, however, the need to establish a separate agency for this purpose is being considered by the Turkmen Government.

The Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan was represented in the survey by two experts (from the Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations and from Ashgabat City Branch of Department of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations).

As reported by both experts performance of their operating units is dependent on the accuracy and timeliness of hydrome-teorological forecasts and HH warnings, but ranked it average to the extent it relates to the prevention and liquidation of conse-quences of the entire range of disasters. It should be noted that such a discreet assessment of weather-dependence in the sector

hydrometeorological hazards

Objects aff ected by hazardous events

8 Strong heat People, crop areas (especially cott on plants), railway and motor roads9 Severe frost People, fruit trees, animals, heat pipelines, motor roads, oil and gas pipelines, water lines,

communal infrastructure faciliti es10 Heavy hail Hail damage, agricultural crops, gardens, house roofs, cars

11 Glazed frost Motor transport, pedestrians, air transport, communicati on and power lines

13 Thunderstorms Air transport, people, metal structures, power lines14 Ice jam on rivers Flooding of citi es, populated localiti es, crop areas, destructi on of hydraulic works, bridges

15 Storm surge Marine transport, fi sheries, coastal infrastructure



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is due the predominant role of seismic disasters preparedness and rescue operations, specific to Turkmenistan. By significance of impact, experts assigned their priority attention to floods and mudflows, and also strong winds (hurricane, squalls) in view the one-time damages resulting from their occurrence. Information on other EHHs and HHs is also monitored by Ministry of Defense.

Turkmenhydromet is the principal source of meteorological, hydrological, climatic and agrometeorological information used by emergency situations management and prevention. Turkmenhydromet provides this sector with current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month period), and EHHs and HHs warnings.

Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are used for day-to-day management purposes and emergency prediction. At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, by courier. In future, telephone mes-sages from the forecaster on duty would be complemented by information delivered via fax.

According to the expert, the information presentation format was generally satisfactory for the currently available communica-tion channels. It would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information) and as statistical data and maps.

The expert assessed the forecast quality, in terms of accuracy and timeliness, as well as reliability and timeliness of HH fore-casts and warnings and information on the area to be affected by HHs and the event duration, as ‘satisfactory’. This satisfactory assessment should be qualified by noting that sectoral experts are well aware of the NMHSs constraints and therefore assess its performance based on their understanding what is achievable in current circumstances. Another factor is lack of knowledge of modern hydrometeorological products by sectoral experts. In interpreting expert assessment the team therefore concentrated on areas recommended for improvement. Delivered information is used on a daily basis throughout the year. The expert considered that it would be useful for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to miti-gate the impact.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of Civil Defense and Rescue operations entities under the Ministry of Defense: precipitation, wind speed, including wind gusts and they assessed it as satisfactory. At the same time accuracy of information on air temperature, floods and mudflows, and hydrometeoro-logical hazards warnings was found unsatisfactory. The expert also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality, and with an appropriate lead time, were an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning.

Due to the lack of methodologies and experts damage from EHHs in monetary terms is not assessed. According to the experts the desirable lead time of hydrological forecasts is 10 days and one month, for meteorological fore-

casts 7 days and one month to allow emergency mitigation measures to be taken. Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the efficient operation: tem-

perature (current, daily minimum and maximum), precipitation (rain, hail, snow) and its duration and intensity; wind speed (includ-ing wind gust speed), hydrometeorological hazards (floods, mudflows, etc).

Current efficiency of the use of hydrometeorological information by the sector was assessed as satisfactory. At the same time it is noted that the use of adequate quality services and forecasts is an important component of improving emergency prevention operations and long-term planning.

The responsible departments of the Ministry of Defense maintain accounting of damage caused by EHHs and HHs, but does not assess economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information. It is explained primarily by the current lack of con-cern and small need to do this job as well as by the lack of relevant assessment techniques and qualified specialists.

Climate information available in Turkmenhydromet is used to study trends in the frequency of EHH and HH occurrence associ-ated with climate change.

Experts expressed strong support for modernization of Turkmenhydromet, as they realize that its current technical capacity is inadequate to provide information products with proper accuracy and timeliness, technologies applied are out of date and spe-cially note need in satellite data.

3.2.3. AGRICULTURE

Agriculture was presented in survey by experts from Scientific and Research Institute for Agriculture (crop planting) and As-sociation “Tyrkmenmallary” (animal husbandry).

Expert representing crop planting sector assessed his sector as strongly dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeoro-logical hazards. Crop plantations are affected by almost all types of hydrometeorological events. The expert rated them as follows according to the degree of impact: dry (hot) winds, very hot weather, strong wind, heavy rain, severe frost, spring frosts, hailstorm, heavy snowfalls, dust storms, dust cyclones, drought, floods and mudflows, and fall frosts.

Expert from animal husbandry sector assessed its weather-dependence at average level, and noted that most critical HHs in terms of damage are dust storms, dry hot winds, heavy rainfalls, hailstorms, dust cyclones, strong wind, drought, severe frosts and snowfall.

In addition to hydrometeorological information provided by Turkmenhydromet, the sector also relies on information obtained from media. Turkmenhydromet provides agricultural users with current information, mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1month and 1year periods), and EHHs/HHs warnings. In animal husbandry users also provided with short-range forecasts (up to 3 days),


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HMI and forecasts are used in crop planting for optimal operational performance; in animal husbandry they also apply hydro-meteorological data for long-term planning.

Among the factors/reasons that do not facilitate the use of hydrometeorological data expert from animal husbandry sector noted lack of: (i) regulatory documents (instructions, manuals, guidance) on how to use services and information provided Turk-menhydromet, (ii) basic skills allowing hydrometeorological data to be used to achieve economic benefits/reduction of probable damage (to take timely informed management decisions contributing to reduction of damage); (iii) information on types of sector-specific products and services that Turkmenhydromet can provide.

At present, HMI used by the expert from crop planting is obtained via radio, and also from TV channels, and newspapers. In future, it would be desirable to have internet and email channels. Expert from animal husbandry relies on courier delivery and fax. Expert from animal husbandry sector noted that it would be desirable to receive information of EHHs/HHs via telephone, fax, and for herders from distant pastures – by radio.

In general, the sectoral experts assessed the information presentation format as satisfactory, and in future they would prefer text (descriptive information) and maps format.

Agricultural experts assessed the forecast and warnings accuracy and timeliness as satisfactory, but information on the area to be affected by HH and the event duration needs to be improved.

The experts found it expedient for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective ac-tions to mitigate the impact.

Forecasts are important during the year, but especially important for crop planting in spring and summer. In the experts’ opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warnings

would allow timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, reliable weather forecasts with a lead time of 1 day would give an opportunity to drive herds to secure locations, 1 week and 1 month lead time would make it possible to lay forage and fuel in a stock, and secure water supply. For crop planting, reliable forecasts with 5-7-day lead time if they predict flood and mudflows, hot dry winds, ground frosts prevention activities may be undertaken.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the agricultural sector: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); air humidity; precipitation (rain, hail, snow); and precipitation duration and intensity, wind intensity and directions, EHH warnings. For animal husbandry sector, optimization of routing operations need higher accuracy and lead-time of EHHs warnings, forecasts on food reserves on pastures and establishing meteorological stations in distant pasture lands.

The current efficacy of HMI uses in agriculture was assessed by the experts as ‘satisfactory’. It was also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time was an important component of improving sector op-erations and long-term planning.

Both experts expressed readiness of their sectors to pay for hydrometeorological services customized to meet specific needs of their operations.

Currently in the sector damage accounting is run in crop planting, but they do not assess economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information. It is explained primarily by the lack of relevant assessment techniques and qualified specialists.

Crop planting sector uses at present climate information to take sector-specific measures to improve the performance taking into account climate change, in animal husbandry those activities are limited due to the absence of methodological guidance and skills.

Agricultural experts would recommend to Turkmenhydromet:• To improve types of hydrometeorological products and services (forecasts, warnings, advisories) taking into accounts the needs of the sector. • To increase a lead time of forecast information being delivered/provided• To show the importance of the efficient use of hydrometeorological information and forecasts with a view of gaining ad-ditional economic benefits for the economy in general as well as for specific segments of the economy and for the population of Tajikistan on the basis of:

- ad hoc consultations with representatives of specific users, - development of the Internetsite of Turkmenhydromet containing information on impacts of unfavorable weather events on various sectors of the economy and on the population (it should also contain guidance materials, recommendations, description of international experience).

• To sign a contract or some agreement on provision of specialized hydrometeorological services, i.e., provision of informa-tion customized to meet the needs of the sector• To discuss implementation of joint hydrometeorological observations (joint gauging posts and stations) in points/on areas which are of priority interest for the sector. More specifically, the following hydrometeorological parameters and hazards affecting sector should be monitored by Turk-

menhydromet with adequate accuracy and lead-time: air temperature, soil surface temperature, temperature at the depth of tillering node, severe frost, strong heat, frosts during

vegetation period, strong wind, squall, whirlwind rain during hay time, heavy rain, sustained heavy rain, heavy snow, blizzard, heavy fog, glazed frost/rime/ accretion, excessive soil moistening, soil drought, air drought, dry winds, very thick snow cover, very dense snow cover, shell ice on soil surface, floods and mudflows,


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Hydrometeorological information products needed to meet sector needs include: • Storm warnings, • Agrotelegrams, • Daily and 10-day agrometeorological bulletins,• Weather forecasts (short and long-range), multi-purpose agrometeorological forecasts (stored moisture for spring season, garden plants blossom, crop productivity, wintering of autumn sawn and other crops, ripening period, pest occurrence).• Seasonal agrometeorological review• Evaluation of agrometeorological conditions of agricultural crop growing• Stored moisture by early spring• Condition of winter crops before winter• Productivity and gross harvest of raw cotton• Ripening period of fruit crops• Ripening period of winter wheat• Explication of young mulberry leaves• Blossom period of perennial cultivated first-growth grass• Bursting of first cotton balls• Productivity and gross harvest of winter wheat.• Hydrological forecasts (water content of rovers and afflux in large reservoirs): for vegetation period (April-September), by y months of vegetation period, low-water season (October-March)• 5-7-day forecasts for rivers in irrigated farming areas • 10-day and quarterly forecasts of water inflow (in large reservoirs)

3.2.4. WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION

The water use and consumption system in Turkmenistan is governed by two Ministries. Drinking water supply is managed by the local authorities while Ministry of Health and Medical Industry is responsible for control of its quality. The Ministry of Water Economy is managing all irrigation water management from the point of origin (national waters) or delivery to Turkmenistan (trans-boundary waters) up to the farm.

Agriculture is entirely dependent on irrigation. 97% of total water withdrawal of Turkmenistan’s (totally 24 billion m3 annu-ally) limited water is used for irrigation, efficient management of water use and supply system is of vital importance for Turkmen economy, which is heavily constrained by the availability of water. Declining soils and water quality/quantity have significant implication for future agricultural development possibly thwarting plans to diversify the agricultural base from one predominantly dependent on cotton to one that will enable the country’s food requirements to be met.

In the survey the water sector was represented by an expert from the Ministry of Water Economy, which is responsible for construction, operation and maintenance of all facilities necessary for the management of water for irrigation and collection and disposal of collector drainage water. The Ministry is comprised of several central departments, including those responsible for the construction works and operation of the Karakum Canal and Turkmen Lake. The Department of Water Systems Operations is responsible for water deliveries from points of origin (source) up to the farms (users).

During the survey and subsequent discussions, experts of the Ministry of Water Industry emphasized that high quality current and archived HMI were exceptionally important for day-to-day management (optimal performance) and long-term planning of the water sector, and design and maintenance of related facilities. HMI is used on a routine basis several times a day during the whole year.

The experts divided hydrometeorological hazards (by the impact and one-time critical damages) into three groups. Each year the water sector of the Turkmenistan economy suffers heavy losses from floods and mudflows, droughts, heavy rainfalls, severe frosts and very hot weather, heavy snowfalls and hailstorms. Damages associated with strong winds, and fall and spring frosts were included in the second echelon of hazards. Dust storms and cyclones, and dry (hot) winds affect the sector but to less extent.

Turkmenhydromet is the principal source of hydrometeorological information used by water sector specialists in their profes-sional activity, but they also use mass media and Internet information sources. Turkmenhydromet provides the sector with current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), and long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month period), and EHH and HH warnings.

At present, hydrometeorological information used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, as well as by courier. They also use Internet and TV channels for obtaining additional information. In future, the same channels are expected to be used for communication, but also complemented by fax transmissions.

According to the expert, the information presentation format was generally satisfactory for the currently available communica-tion channels. Preferred data presentation format covers statistical data, descriptive (textual) format, and also maps.

Based on his current perception and knowledge of hydrometeorological products, the water sector expert assessed the quality of forecasts and warnings accuracy, timeliness and spatial coverage quality as ‘satisfactory (i.e., it should be improved)’ in terms


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of accuracy and timeliness. The expert suggested that it would be critically important for HH warnings to include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the impact. This would allow optimization of activities designed to increase the yield and improve the quality of agricultural crops.

Water sector considers the wide range of hydrometeorological parameters for the optimal operation of the water resources management and irrigation sector: air temperature, precipitation, precipitation (rain, hail, and snow), wind velocity and directions, and weather hazards (floods and mudflows, ground frosts, hot dry winds). The current level of accuracy of forecasts and warnings is assessed as adequate.

As noted by the expert, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information, forecasts and warnings would be an important factor for adequate and timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, reliable meteorological forecasts for wind gusts, hurricane, dust storms with a lead time of 3-7 days would make it possible to prepare column and climbing cranes, excavators and other machinery, have staff on site. Thus, reliable forecasts of floods and mudflows with lead-time of 10 days or 1-month period will allow to secure spare parts and materials, prepare and relocation of machinery to safe locations. The same timeliness of HMI on heavy rainfalls, very hot weather, severe frosts and heavy snowfall would allow for adequate weather resistant preparation of machinery and personal on sites.

The current efficacy of HMI uses by the water sector was assessed by the expert as ‘high’. It was also noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time are an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. But sector’s entities are not prepared to pay for the receipt of customized information.

At present, water sector entities assess damage from weather conditions and HH. They also consider at present climate infor-mation to take sector-specific measures to improve the performance taking into account climate change.

The Water sector expert assessed HMI provisions as satisfactory, but would recommend to Turkmenhydromet mostly the same priority activities as agricultural expert (see 3.2.2). He also suggested to discuss implementation of joint agrometeorological ob-servations and crop and pasture productivity forecasts.

Currently Turkmenhydromet maintains rather close contacts with the Ministry of Water Economy. Nevertheless, gaining benefits from potential NMHS modernization is limited by bilateral constraint. From the sectoral side, those problems stem from the current poor conditions of irrigation and inefficient drainage infrastructure that allow for estimated up to 50% losses of water withdrawal routed to agriculture. Acquisition of improved HMI will need higher skills of personal and targeted adjustments in practice of planning, design and construction of the facilities, routine operational activities and development of sector-specific adaptation measures to mitigate climate changes.

From NMHS side, the opportunities to meet the water sector requirements are questioned by current status of Turkmenhydromet observation network, forecasting capacities, staffing problems. As notes ECA Weather and Climate Services regional review (World Bank, 2008), the forecast needs of water resources management point to a need for weather models that are linked to hydrological models; for a representative network of rain gauges and stream gauges reporting data in real time; for digitization of historical weather and hydrological records; seasonal forecasting; and climate projection. Radar data is important to hydrology, providing a more representative sample of precipitation than rain gauges are able to provide. As a downstream country Turkmeni-stan, needs data from its upstream neighbors on river flow to project water resources and water quality.

3.2.5. OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

The country’s oil and gas industry is the foundation of its fuel and energy sector. Turkmenistan has substantial reserves of oil and natural gas in the Caspian Sea area and in the northern and eastern sections of

the country. Oil fields and the associated oil industry are centered in the Caspian plain in the Western Turkmenistan and off-shore oil fields to the west of the Cheleken Peninsula in the Caspian Sea. Current gas production in Turkmenistan is primarily from On-shore and mature fields in eastern Turkmenistan that were initially developed in the Soviet period. Major investment is required in order to maintain output from existing fields and to develop new reserves22. While the bulk of Turkmenistan gas reserves are presumed to be on-shore, off-shore Caspian gas production could be in the range of 15-25 billion m3/y by 2030. Investment in the upstream will determine Turkmenistan‘s ability to support multiple export routes (IEA, 2008).

Further plans for dynamic development of hydrocarbons extraction on the Turkmen shelf of the Caspian sea and corresponding development of distribution network for domestic and exports deliveries. In 2008 the total length of gas pipelines was estimated at about 6.5 thous. km, and oil pipelines – 1.5 thous. km. It will need for adequate hydrometeorological services ensuring safety of drilling operations, oil and gas transportation systems, and design, construction and maintenance of sector’s facilities and in-frastructure.

22 Estimates of Turkmenistan’s natural gas reserves vary considerably. Since 2006, Turkmenistan has announced new gas discoveries, the South Yolotan and Os-man fields in the south-east of the country, and in August 2008 also a new gas condensate field, South Gutlyayak. Representatives of Turkmenistan have put total gas reserves in the country at more than 20 trillion cubic meters, an amount approaching the range of proven reserves in Iran or Qatar – and far more than the 2.7 trillion cubic meters included by BP in its statistical review (2008).


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Oil and gas complex of Turkmenistan includes state concerns “Turkmengaz”, “Turkmenneft”, “Turkmengeologia”, “Turkmen-neftegazstroy” and oil refineries, which are managed by the Ministry of Oil and Gas and Mineral Resources.

Expert from State concern “Turkmengaz” represented the Oil and gas complex in the users’ needs assessment survey. In general dependence of the sector on weather conditions and hazardous meteorological events was assessed as high. For its

operation floods, mudflows, severe frosts, and spring and fall ground frosts are of critical importance. In its operations “Turkmengaz” uses hydrometeorological information and forecasts provided by Turkmenhydromet. However

the expert indicated that hydrometeorological information was not used efficiently due to the following reasons: • lack of guidance documents (guides, manuals, recommendations) on how to use services and information provided by Turkmenhydromet ;• lack of basic skills in using hydrometeorological data to gain economic benefits/reduce probable damage (to take timely and relevant management decisions to facilitating damage reduction); • no possibility to use the assistance of professionals, whose number is either not sufficient or there are no professional hydrometeorologists on the staff at all;• no information on types of products and services that could be provided by Turkmenhydromet ; • no access to relevant communication systems to be able to receive hydrometeorological data in the required operational mode. • products provided by Turkmenhydromet do not need current practical needs of the sector. The sector uses the following products of Turkmenhydromet: current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), climate

information (generalized for 1-month period), and warnings of hydrometeorological hazards for operational management (to ensure optimal operation).

At present hydrometeorological information is delivered by hydrometeorological information used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, as well as by fax.

The expert assessed the format of information presentation as satisfactory with account to communication channels currently available. Textual form (descriptive information) of presentation was mentioned as a desirable option.

The weather information is accessed on a daily basis. Most critical is winter period, while the weather parameters are moni-tored around a year.

Accuracy and timeliness of forecasts was assessed as satisfactory. Accuracy and timeliness of EHH and HH forecasts and warnings including information on the area to be affected and EHH/HH duration were assessed as fairly low, and should be improved considerably.

According to the expert the forecast reliability/accuracy is unsatisfactory for such elements as floods and mudflows. The desir-able sector needs in air temperature accuracy is ±0.1oC, 3-day lead-time for forecasts of mudflows and floods, and also EHH and HH forecasts and warnings

The expert believes that better lead time of meteorological and hydrological information, forecasts and warnings will enable timely management decisions on protective measures to be taken. For example, 7day lead time meteorological forecast will allow strengthening portholes for water and sediments to be turned off. 1 month lead time forecasts will make it possible to take construct to protective structures on specific sites.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the electricity industry facilities: air temperature (daily maximum and minimum), atmospheric pressure, and hydrometeorological haz-ards (floods, mudflows, frosts, dust storms, ground frosts).

According to the expert the effective use of hydrometeorological information (of adequate quality and timeliness) should be an important factor for the improvement of operation and long-term planning of the sector. However he could not clearly specific formulate requirements to hydrometeorological information needed to make operation and planning optimal, other than note the need in accuracy of forecasts.

“Turkmengas” maintains accounting of damage from EHH and HH impacts. Expert marked that they do assess economic ben-efits of the HMI use, but it seems that the answer meant financial assessment of actual losses due to EHHs and HHs.

Climate information is also used by the sector for elaborating sector-specific measures aimed to improve operation with ac-count climate change projections.

In general hydrometeorological services provided by Turkmenhydromet were assessed as satisfactory, and the expert con-firmed his sector’s readiness to pay for HMI tailored to the sectoral needs.

Recommendations to Turkmenhydromet dealt with the needs:• To increase accuracy lead time of forecast information being delivered/provided• To discuss a contract or some agreement with Turkmenhydromet on provision of specialized hydrometeorological services, i.e., provision of information customized to meet the needs of Turkmengaz. More specifically, hydrometeorological information product for the sector should include: • Forecasts for the current day, 24 hours (with half-day division), next 2 days, week, month. • Heightspecific air temperature forecasts. • Storm warnings (snowstorm, fog, heavy rain, , glazed frost/rime accretion, thunderstorm, wind 15 m/s and greater, air


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temperature below -25°С, zero-crossing periods).• Hydrological forecasts and factual hydrological information.• Marine forecasts (surge depending on rough-water qualities, upsurge-downsurge, harbor seiche, Ice forecasts, Actual (observation) data on flow conditions in the port area)• Climate and hydrological data series for specific sites and areas

3.2.6. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION

State Corporation “Turkmenenergo” of the Ministry of Energy and Industry is operating now 8 state owned electric power stations with total installed capacity of 3,341.6 MW. Principal fuel at the power stations is natural gas. All the power stations are supplied with gas from nearest gas field.

The annual consumption of natural gas at these stations is approximately 4.5 billion m3. The use of reserve fuel – furnace fuel oil and diesel oil – is less than 1%, and also delivered from domestic oil refineries. Electricity output in 2006 was estimated in 12.8 billion kWh. Refurbishing of the power generation and distribution systems in the early 2000s, construction of new highvoltage power transmission lines ensured the stable and reliable functioning of power engineering system of Turkmenistan and consider-ably increased its exports potential. That process is expected to improve generating efficiency by 40 percent starting in 2011. Turkmenistan is a net exporter of electric power the neighboring countries, transmitting around 1.4 billion kWh in 2006.

Turkmenistan is the energy abundant state and it can potentially produce 17 billion kWh of electric power and export 47% of this volume. Turkmenistan exports electricity to Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and Tajikistan. The volumes depend on the needs in these countries. The power transmission lines were constructed to the cities of Afghanistan: Mazari Sharif, Andhoi, Hodjadukki, Shiber-gan (110 kV). Two power transmission lines (110 kV and 220kV) connect the Turkmen and Iranian power grids. All this allows to considerably increasing the export of electricity to the neighboring countries.

The electric power industry is strongly dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological hazards. The electric power expert rated them as follows according to the degree of impact: floods and mudflows, strong wind (hurricane, squall), heavy rain, severe frost, dust storms.

Turkmenhydromet is the principal source of hydrometeorological information used by Turkmenenergo, but information from Internet is also used. The sector receives short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), and EHH and HH warnings for optimal performance of operational management.

At present, the information used by the sector is delivered via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty, by courier, and via Internet. According to the expert, the information presentation format is generally satisfactory for the currently available communi-cation channels. However, it would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information) and maps format.

The expert assessed the forecast and EHHs and HHs warnings quality as ‘fairly low’ (i.e., should be improved)’ in terms of accuracy, and as ‘satisfactory’ in terms of timeliness. This may allow estimates of financial losses from specific types of HH to be determined. But currently entities under Turkmenenergo do not assess damage from weather conditions and HH, including financial losses due to the lack methodological guidelines.

Expert noted that high importance of hydrometeorological services required by the electricity industry throughout the year.In the expert’s opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological and hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warn-

ings would allow more timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, a meteorological forecasts with a lead time of 1 day organization of duties and equipment and machinery preparedness.

Accuracy of Information on air temperature is note as satisfactory. All other parameters are not satisfactory (atmospheric pres-sure, wind directions and speed, ground frosts, hail, floods and mudflows, dry hot winds, and EHHs and HHs warnings. The follow-ing hydrometeorological parameters were considered most essential for the optimal operation of the electricity industry facilities: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, hail, snow); precipitation duration and intensity; and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc.).

The expert believes that Tukmenhydromet current capacity is insufficient to meet the existing needs of the sector. The electric-ity industry wants to have water resources forecast data for next 2-3 years to make coordinated intergovernmental decisions on water/power issues but there is no scientific basis for such forecasts yet.

Continuous monitoring of weather conditions (air humidity, precipitation (snow, wind, and glaze ice) and its intensity, strong winds and hurricanes, EHHs and HHs warnings is also necessary for electricity power plants safe operation with a view to timely prevention of accidents.

Current use of available HMI by sector is rated as satisfactory, and the effective use of hydrometeorological information (of adequate quality and timeliness) should be an important factor for the improvement of operation and long-term planning of the sector. However the expert could not clearly formulate specific requirements to hydrometeorological information needed to make operation and planning optimal, other than note the need in better accuracy of forecasts.

In general hydrometeorological services provided by Turkmenhydromet were assessed as satisfactory, and the expert con-firmed his sector’s readiness to pay for HMI tailored to the sectoral needs.


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More specifically, hydrometeorological information product for the sector should include: • Forecasts for 24 hours and next 2 days. Heightspecific air temperature forecasts. • Storm warnings (thunderstorm, glazed frost and rime, snowstorm, air temperature below -30°С and above +30°С, heavy rains, wet snow, zero-crossing periods, fog, hydrological forecasts and factual hydrological information.• Climate and hydrological data series for specific sites and areas, and also climate change projection for planned invest-ment project (plant facilities and distribution network).

3.2.7. COMMUNAL SERVICES

Housing and communal services as a complicated system of enterprises and services for population needs in heat and power supply, water supply and sewerage, housing maintenance, etc.

The expert who participated in the survey represented OJSC “Ashgabatteplo”, which manages heat, steam and hot water supply to users in Ashgabat.

In early 2000s in Ashgabat city, 52% of all heating is provided from centralized system. It is about 60 boiler houses belong-ing to Ashgabat hyakimlik (municipality). Around 8% of users get the hot water from the centralized system of heating. The total capacity of boiler houses, with taking into consideration of hot water supply, is 565 Gcal/h. With the norm 100 million m3/year of natural gas consumption, the real consumption is 153 million m3 per year. The total length of heating nets of the centralized system as a whole in Ashgabat city is 465 km, of which 61% is laid under the ground and 39% – over the ground. The largest part of surface nets is not protected with heat insulation that causes heat losses in a volume of 55850 Gcal over the heating period (Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan, 2006)

The heating networks were generally assessed by the expert as ‘fairly moderately’ dependent on weather conditions and hy-drometeorological hazards. The expert ranked the dependence of the sector on affects from HHs as follows: damage to fixed as-sets is related to severe frost, floods and mudflows, strong wind (hurricane, squall). Less damaging, but also significant are impacts from heavy rainfalls and heavy snowfalls. The sector’s production activities are affected, first of all, by spring and fall frosts and.

The principal sources of hydrometeorological (meteorological) information used by Ashgabatteplo include Turkmenhydromet and the internet. From Turkmenhydromet, the sector uses current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), and EHH and HH warnings.

Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are used for only operational optimal performance purposes for preparation of boiler equipment quantity and heat distribution network operating conditions.

At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered by Turkmenhydromet via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty. Information from Internet, TV-channels and newspapers is also monitored. In future, communication means/channels should be diversified to include delivery by courier and fax transmission. The expert assessed the information presentation format as generally satisfac-tory for the currently available communication channels. It would be desirable to receive such information as a text (descriptive information).

Though hydrometeorological services are required by the heat power industry throughout the year high quality forecast data are critical winter for adjustment of heat production and supply volumes.

In the expert’s opinion, increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecasts and warnings would allow timely management decisions on protective actions. For example, a reliable meteorological forecast with a lead time of 3 days would give an opportunity to put in operation reserve capacities of heat production.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the heating networks: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, snow); wind speed (inc. gusts), and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc

The expert noted that using HMI and forecasts of an appropriate quality, and with an appropriate lead time, are an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning.

Currently damage accounting due to HHs is run by Ashgabatteplo entities, but they do not assess economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information. It is explained primarily by the lack of relevant assessment techniques and qualified specialists.

In general, the expert assessed hydrometeorological services provided by Turkmenhydromet as ‘fairly satisfactory’ and con-firmed the sector’s preparedness to pay for hydrometeorological services customized to meet the specific needs of Ashgabatteplo.

As to the future use of Turkmenhydromet products and services, the expert from the Ashgabatteplo noted that:• To improve types of hydrometeorological products and services (forecasts, warnings, advisories) taking into accounts the

needs of the sector. • To discuss a contract or some agreement with Turkmenhydromet on provision of specialized hydrometeorological services,

i.e., provision of information customized to meet the needs of Ashgabatteplo. More specifically, hydrometeorological information product for the sector should include: • Forecasts for the current day, 24 hours next 2 days, week, month.


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• Actual information on meteorological parameters (daily average, maximum and minimum air temperature, wind direction/speed, HHs)

• Specialized average air temperature forecasts. • Storm warnings (snowstorm, fog, heavy rain, , glazed frost/rime accretion, thunderstorm, wind 15 m/s and greater, air

temperature below -25°С, zero-crossing periods).• Hydrological forecasts and factual hydrological information.• HH warnings and forecasts.

3.2.8. TRANSPORT

The transport sector is represented by: road transport, aviation, marine transport, railways, pipelines, and roads. During the last decade considerable investments were channeled to rehabilitation, modernization and new construction to all subsectors of the Turkmenistan transportation system to meet the requirements of the growing economy and to gain the benefits from the country’s transit geographical position23.

In 2006 the transport system included 2,440 km of railroads with 1.520 m gauge, most of which runs close to the northern and southern borders. The Tedjen–Serakhs–Mashhad railroad, built in 1996 by Turkmenistan and Iran, has become a vital link of Central Asian, Russian, and European railroad systems with South Asia and the Persian Gulf. The TransKarakum Railway, a direct link between Ashgabat and Dashoguz has been recently completed by halving travel time between the southern and northern borders. Urban transportation systems are being upgraded in Ashgabat, Dashoguz, and Mary.

In 2002 Turkmenistan had an estimated 13,64 thous. km of roads, about 12.24 thous. km of which were paved. One major highway runs westward from Turkmenabat to Mary, along the Iranian border through Ashgabat and then to Turkmenbashi on the Caspian Sea; a second runs north-westward from the Afghanistan border through Turkmenabat, along the Uzbekistan border to Dashoguz. In the early 2000s, major road-building projects improved sections of the highway connecting Ashgabat with Turk-menbashi and Mary. A major highway between Ashgabat and Dashoguz, is part of a plan to link the capital with major points in all five provinces.

The main port at Turkmenbashi on the Caspian Sea is being renovated. Main shipping lines cross the Caspian to Astrakhan in Russia and Baku in Azerbaijan. Smaller Caspian ports are Alaja, Chekelen, and Ekarem. Plans call for expansion of Ekarem into a second major Caspian port. In 2008 Turkmenistan had seven merchant marine vessels of more than 1,000 tons displacement, of which four were cargo ships, two were oil tankers, one was for refrigerated cargo.

The main inland waterways are the Amu Darya River, which runs along the northern border, and the Karakum Canal, which runs from east to west from the Amu Darya near the Afghanistan border through Mary and Ashgabat to Turkmenbashi on the Caspian coast. The 1,300-kilometer canal, designed mainly for irrigation, is navigable for up to 450 kilometers from its Caspian terminus. Because water is withdrawn for irrigation, the Amu Darya is navigable only about 250 kilometers downstream from the Afghanistan border to Turkmenabat.

In the mid-1990s, the Ashgabat airport was enlarged and modernized. Smaller international airports are located at Dashoguz and Turkmenabat. International flights are available from Ashgabat to Armenia, China, Germany, India, Ukraine, Russia, Belorus-sia, Thailand, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

All the elements of the transportation system of the country are exposed to hydrometeorological hazards and adverse weather conditions. Safety of road and railway transportation, efficiency of rollingstock maintenance, timeliness of prevention measures strongly depend on reliability of hydrometeorological forecasts and warnings, in particular on snowstorms with snowfall and strong wind; severe frosts (below -25° С) and high temperatures (above +25°С); glazed frost; rains leading to erosion of railroad bed; floods, high water level during spring tides, ice jams on rivers; thunderstorms; fogs; mudflows; dust storms.

Marine and river traffic conditions heavily depends on presence of ice on navigation routes (concentration, shape, thickness); fog, scotch mist hindering navigation; heavy precipitation (rain, snow); hindering navigation; storms (with parameters exceeding rough-water qualities); ice accretion on ship; harbor seiche (in the port area); upsurge-downsurge (in the port area.

Transportation sector was presented in a survey by and expert from the Ministry of Railway Transport. The sector was generally assessed by the expert as moderately dependent on weather conditions and hydrometeorological

hazards, but they use meteorological and hydrological forecasts and warnings in their routine work daily during the year, and also consider climatic information. The expert noted that all hydrometeorological hazards, besides drought, affect operations in sector. Major hazards group included floods and mudflows, strong wind (hurricane, squall), dust storms and hurricanes, heavy precipitation (rains and snow) and hail, very hot weather and severe frosts. Less damaging are dry hot winds, fall and spring frosts.

The principal sources of hydrometeorological information used by the railroad sector include Turkmenhydromet, and also mass media. Turkmenhydromet provides the sector with short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), long-range forecasts (from 4 to 6 months climate outlooks (generalized for 1-month and 1-year periods), and EHH/HH warnings.

23 Data on transport statistics is based on CIA – The World Fact Book Turkmenistan, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworldfactbook/geos/TX.html assessed on 26/02/2009, and Library of Congress – Country profile, 2007.


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Hydrometeorological information and forecast is used for optimal performance and design of facilities. At present, HMI used by the sector is delivered from Turkmenhydromet via telephone lines from the forecaster on duty. They also monitor information available via radio and mass media (TV-channels, newspapers).

In general, the expert assessed the format of information presentation by Turkmenhydromet as ‘satisfactory’ but did not indicate its preferences for the future.

The expert assessed the forecasts and warnings quality as ‘satisfactory’ both in terms of accuracy and timeliness. If HH warnings could include information on the event’s potential implications and protective actions to mitigate the implica-

tions, it would allow impact reduction. According to the expert, forecast reliability/accuracy was currently satisfactory for air temperature, air pressure, precipitation,

wind speed/direction, for floods and mudflows, and HH warnings. Increasing the lead time of meteorological/hydrological information delivery, forecast and warnings would allow timely man-

agement decisions on protective actions. For example, a reliable meteorological forecast with a lead time of 1 days and hydrologi-cal forecast for 10 days is assumed to be enough to warn all units and take preparatory actions to mitigate the impact.

Information on the following hydrometeorological parameters was considered most essential for the optimal operation of the road sector: temperature (current temperature, as well as daily minimum and maximum); precipitation (rain, hail, snow); precipita-tion duration and intensity; wind speed, including wind gusts; visibility; and hydrometeorological hazards (floods and mudflows, etc.).

The expert noted that using HMI and forecast of an appropriate quality and with an appropriate lead time was an important component of improving sector operations and long-term planning. Accurate and quick delivery of hydrometeorological informa-tion to the railroad sector entities is a prerequisite for its efficient and timely use.

The sector units assess damage from weather conditions and HHs; however, they do not assess the cost of benefits from HMI use as, according to the expert, “it requires methodological guidance”.

The expert generally assessed hydrometeorological services provided by Turkmenhydromet as ‘fairly satisfactory’. At the same time, the expert expressed a categorical refusal to feebased arrangements of provision of Turkmenhydromet ‘s services for his sec-tor.

Recommendations to Turkmenhydromet were:• To increase a lead time of forecast information being delivered/provided• To show the importance of the efficient use of hydrometeorological information and forecasts with a view of gaining ad-ditional economic benefits for the economy in general as well as for specific segments of the economy and for the population of Turkmenistan on the basis of:

- ad hoc consultations with representatives of specific users, - Development of the Internet-site of Turkmenhydromet containing information on impacts of unfavorable weather events on various sectors of the economy and on the population (it should also contain guidance materials, recommendations, description of international experience).

3.3. EVALUATION OF SECTOR NEEDS AND NMHS CAPACITY

The results of the survey, consultations with NMHS staff and sector experts, and discussion of HMI needs of weather-depen-dent sectors of the economy at the consultation workshop on improving the efficacy of weather and climate service delivery in Turkmenistan (Ashgabat, September 30, 2008) demonstrated that the pressing issue of hydrometeorological service improvement was well understood by Turkmenhydromet (the provider of products and services) and supported by all key users and stakeholders.

Many users need information that Turkmenhydromet cannot provide at present. Users are often not well informed about NMHS has serious weaknesses such as: a low-density network of weather and gauging stations resulting in inadequate coverage of the high-altitude zone by meteorological observations; an almost complete absence of automated technical facilities, weather radars, and modern technologies and means for remote data processing and telecommunication; and critical conditions of Turkmen-hydromet facilities and data archive.

The situation has a negative impact on the quality of observation data and forecasts (especially forecasts of hydrometeorologi-cal disasters), on how efficiently public, sector-specific and user needs can be met, and how the country can fulfill its international and regional obligations, including those under the Global Observation System.

A discussion during Turkmenhydromet specialists with major users and stakeholders was a pioneer event in opening a dialog with interested stakeholders. It stimulated agreeing and recognitions the following aspects for consideration and potential follow-up activities:

1. The importance of mobilizing the experts from specific ministries and agencies to identify the users’ demand for hydro-meteorological information and services, which would be valuable both for the Turkmenhydromet itself and for the above agencies. The above work shall include identifying an optimum level of State funding to minimize any economic losses and to identify the most efficient investment categories.


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2. The workshop attendants have pointed at the current poor technical capacity of the Turkmenhydromet, which has had an adverse impact on the quality of hydrometeorological services and resulted in high economic losses. Also, the workshop attendants have stressed that the above economic losses have been partly due to an insufficient interaction between the Turk-menhydromet and the principal recipients of hydrometeorological information. In view of the above, upgrading the Turkmen-hydromet should be a necessary and timely task.3. The advisability of having the World Bank’s support in implementing any integrated projects in the area of hydrometeorol-ogy. Consolidated users’ recommendations to Turkmenhydromet focused to enhance:• Strengthening the mechanisms for interacting with the users including the development of a feedback system (probably us-ing any new devices and equipment);• Attracting the experts from any weather-dependant sectors to contribute to a more detailed review of the major categories of modernization and technical support to the Turkmenhydromet and its branches;• Intensifying the cooperation with key sectors of economy and housing & communal sector in calculating any economic benefits (including any losses prevented) from using any hydrometeorological information;• Developing the baseline principles and mechanisms for interacting with various user categories in terms of providing any data and products for a value received;• Intensifying the attraction of the most weather-dependant branches of economy (fuel & energy complex, housing & com-munal complex etc.) for co-funding of any programs for targeted collection and provision of hydrometeorological informa-tion;• Promoting the cooperation with specific branches of economy in developing any sectoral methods for calculating an economic effect (economic efficiency) from using any hydrometeorological information & forecasts, and in systematizing the collection of data on economic damages due to specific hydrometeorological events for the national economy in general and for each sector of economy by summarizing any losses from all the hazardous hydrometeorological events and adverse weather conditions; and• Promoting the aspects of efficient use of hydrometeorological information in order to secure any supplementary economic benefits for the national economy in general and for specific economic sectors and population of Turkmenistan on the basis of:

- implementing any targeted consulting events involving the representatives of specific users, and- developing the Turkmenhydromet web site to feature any hydrometeorological information including that related to the impact of any adverse weather conditions on various branches of economy and population(guidelines, recommendations, and international experience)

3.4. SUMMARY

The results of the survey, consultations with NMHS staff and sector experts, and discussion of HMI needs of weather-depen-dent sectors of the economy at the consultation workshop revealed that there is a real gap in Turkmenhydromet/users interaction. NMHS-sectoral users dialog is at a very initial stage of understanding and clarification of potential benefits of the use of improved HMI. Specialized hydrometeorological services tailored to sectoral needs are very limited or even practically not existent. Each of the weather and climate sensitive sectors that contributed to this study reported that they used standard current information, short-range forecasts (up to 3 days), mid-range forecasts (from 3 to 15 days), and very rare long-range forecasts (up to 4-6 months), climate outlooks (primarily generalized for 1month period), and EHH/HH warnings supplied by Turkmenhydromet. In general, their assessment of the quality, reliability and timeliness of the products and services provided by Turkmenhydromet ranged from fairly satisfactory to satisfactory. Improving hydrometeorological observations and the accuracy and means of delivery of forecast products and services is recognized amongst users as high priority. They also highlighted the importance of establishing the mecha-nisms for interacting with the users including the development of a feedback system and of including users in any modernization process to ensure that future products and services aligned with user needs.


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CHAPTER 4. ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DELIVERY

4.1. GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUNDS OF ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

The economic assessment carried out under this study sought to estimate the potential aggregate benefits that accrue to busi-ness activities in the country from the improved quality (accuracy and timeliness) of the hydrometeorological information and services delivered by Turkmenhydromet following its modernization. The benefits associated with the economic value of hydrome-teorological information for the household sector and improvement of human life and safety were not assessed.

The assessment approaches envisage generalization and calculation of country-wide losses from EHHs and HHs and estima-tion of possible variation of the share and absolute amount of incremental effects (benefits in terms of potentially avoided losses) due to more accurate and timely hydrometeorological information and forecasts as a result of modernization program. It was as-sumed that benefits of modernization will be realized during 7 years (implementation of the Program and effective operation of the new technologies, hardware and equipment, as well as the NMHS fixed assets at the postimplementation stage). Therefore, the potential returns on modernization investments were calculated by comparing aggregate amount of incremental benefits during the 7-year period and the program’s costs.

Two modernization options were considered while elaborating recommendations for Turkmenhydromet24: (i) Large scale

program of actions aimed at complex strengthening and technical upgrading (USD30.0 million), and implementation of activities to optimize the institutional structure, improve the scientific and methodological basis, provide professional upgrading of the staff, and establish quality control of hydrometeorological data; (ii) Low budget minimum option designed to retain the current critical capacity and strengthen cooperation with users (USD5.22 million).

The Large scale investment program option (USD30.0 million), that will help to upgrade Turkmenhydromet capacity to fairly good level is offered as the basic option in the assessment of economic benefits of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization. It is expected that the basic option will be implemented within 4 years with maximum inflow of investments during third and fourth years of program implementation.

Economic losses were intended to be generalized and estimated on the basis of three independent approaches, namely me-teorological risks assessment25, benchmarking method and sector-specific assessment . Initially, the team undertook economic as-sessment based on these approaches and reported preliminary results of assessment at the consultation workshop. Later it became apparent that basic underlying macroeconomic parameters used for the assessment such as national GDP, exchange rate and others are not reliable. This in turn made the results of economic assessment more problematic and therefore some of them are not presented in this report.

There were a number of additional complexities in the assessment of economic benefits for Turkmenistan even more compli-cated and scarce to that observed in the other countries of ECA region where the team has undertaken economic review of weather related damages.. One of major concerns is the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses (both in physical and value terms) incurred by the economy, its sectors and population from the entire range of EHHs and HHs, the team experienced difficul-ties in applying several complementary approaches to double check data and ensure the integrity of the results, due you the lack of interagency information exchange and information disclosure issues. Very often sectoral experts reported about the complete absence of the required data on records and economic assessment of losses in their sectors due to the lack of interest and guiding documentation (methodology) in sectoral decision-making process.

The economic efficacy of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmarking, and some estimates from meteorological risk assessment where proxy data was available and seemed to be reliable. Interaction with experts from weather-dependant sectors was undergone to collect information for sector-specific assessment via dissemination of questionnaire and face-to-face interview. None of experts was able to provide any quantitative information on his/her sector or even experts’ judgments on the changes and potential sectoral benefits in terms of modernization of NMHS and improvement of hydrometeorological services provisions. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by applying the data on average annual losses calculated through the benchmarking assessments.

24 The rationale and description of the proposed modernization options are presented in Chapter 5 25 Sectorapproaches was developed and applied during preparation of the National hydrometeorological Modernization project in Russia (World Bank, 2004). Benchmarking approach was employed through developing approaches of economic assessment for a sample of national meteorological and hydrological ser-vice modernization initiatives in Europe and Central Asia (World Bank, 2008c). Proposed approaches are far from being perfect and intended to estimate potential benefits of modernization under conditions of highly scarce and unreliable data.


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26 The vulnerability of the territory to weather hazards was assessed as a function of the observed extreme and threshold values of major meteorological param-eters, among which temperature (minimum and maximum), precipitation and wind, considered with characteristics of their statistical distributions.27 The average annual values of losses from hydrometeorological hazards are assumed to be 0.45% of GDP. The range of annual losses is assumed to be from 0.1 to 1.0 % of GDP. There is no comprehensive data base on this important parameter, the estimates available in the literature vary from less than 0.1% to over 5% of GDP. 28 The level of average annual prevented losses – as a percentage of total losses – 40% (range – from 20 to 60 %). Weather dependence of the economy means the aggregate share of the weather-dependent sectors in GDP, with the year average value of 50%. Share of agriculture in GDP: the mean annual value – 15%;Weather vulnerability: the mean value is “average”. The status of NMHS service delivery and hydrometeorological information provisions: the mean value “satisfactory”

4.2. APPROACHHS TO ASSESSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS

When preparing information for the assessment of economic benefits no statistical data on the value of damage caused by hydrometeorological hazards was available from the official sources of statistics (at the national level, in the ministries, agencies and in Turkmenhydromet). In order to obtain the corresponding information special consultations with Turkmenhydromet specialists and experts of the weather-dependent sectors were conducted.

The initial assessment of economic benefits was based on the benchmarking method developed in the course of the regional review of the ECA national hydrometeorological services (Tsirkunov V. et al, 2008c). This review was carried by the World Bank in 2005-2007 for the countries of Southern Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia), some Balkan countries (Albania and Ser-bia), as well as for the Republic of Belarus, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Most of these countries do not record data on the actual total and sector-specific economic losses caused by hydrometeorological hazards and unfavorable weather conditions.

Benchmarking was developed to estimate economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information and services for the national economy. The assessment was based on (i) available national official macroeconomic and sector-specific statistics; (ii) weather-dependence of the economy; (iii) vulnerability of the country’s territory to weather hazards26; (iv) the NMHS status and the quality of hydrometeorological service provision in a given surveyed country, and (v) the values of the key parameters obtained through the surveys of experts and studies carried out in other countries.

Benchmarking is a simplified method, and it does not require detailed analytical studies or time-consuming surveys. Despite the limitations in the application of this method, its findings provide a reasonable benchmark to identify the levels of direct economic losses from weather hazards and disasters, as well as the economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information in a specific country. A detailed description of the benchmarking approach, including its main assumptions and limitations, is given in Tsirkunov V. et al, 2006).

Benchmarking comprises a staged approach. The first stage defines the average values of two key parameters, which are adjusted against the GDP of the country. These

key parameters are: 1) The level of annual direct economic losses caused by hydrometeorological hazards as a share of GDP27; 2) The level of annual prevented losses (i.e. losses that are potentially avoided due to the use of improved weather fore-casts and warnings as a result of modernization) expressed as a percentage of the total losses28;In the second stage, the benchmarks are adjusted following assessment of the key countryspecific parameters (weather and

climate conditions, structure of economy, NMHS status, and so on. Finally, the estimates obtained for a country are used for calculating the marginal efficacy of the potential improvement of

hydrometeorological services following the proposed modernization program.

4.3. RESULTS OF THH ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THH PROPOSED

TURKMENHYDROMET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

Using information from Turkmenhydromet, the study determined the key parameters required to calculate the marginal (least) economic effect of the hydrometeorological service provision with respect to the current status of the NMHS and after its proposed development and technical and technological modernization. The results of assessing such parameters are presented in Table 4.1.

The GDP share of the Turkmenistan sectors, which are exposed to substantial negative impact of hydrometeorological haz-ards, is 48%. This rates the weather-dependence of the national economy close to “relatively low” (see Section 1.3), due to the moderate agriculture’s input to national as compared to most of the countries that were reviewed in ECA region earlier (18.1% of GDP). The survey of experts from Turkmenhydromet showed that in Turkmenistan, like in many other transition countries, the NMHS suffered heavily from the chronic massive underfinancing, which has resulted in gradual ageing and degradation (technical and technological) of the physical infrastructure of the service. Thus, for the purpose of this study, the status of NMHS and hydrome-


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teorological service provision was rated as “poor”. The vulnerability of the country’s territory to weather hazards as whole was rated as “average”. The mean annual GDP for the period 2000-2006 was assessed at USD7,383 million. The amount of average annual NMHS’s financing is about USD1.7 million for the same period, or 0.023% of the GDP indicator (Table 4.1).

Preliminary efficiency assessments of hydrometeorological services provided by the NMHS, as estimated by the benchmarking method, indicated that the Turkmenistan economy currently loses annually on average USD 42 million, or about TMM 432 billion (in the 2006 prices) due to weather-related damages. The absolute values of average annual preventable losses (over USD10 million) were obtained by assessing the prevented loss factor which, in the case of Turkmenistan, was 0.29, i.e. higher than in Tajikistan (0.19) and Kyrgyzstan (0.29), and close to the mean prevented loss factor for Kazakhstan (0.35) . For more details see Korshunov A.( 2008).

Annual incremental benefits for the national economy that would result from upgrading and developing the Turkmenhydromet amount to USD18 million, or over TMM 192 billion in 2006 prices (it was assumed for assessment purposes that the current condi-tions would improve by two grades: from “very poor” to “fairly good”). Thus, investment of USD 30 million, which is estimated as sufficient for upgrading NMHS conditions to “adequate”, may pay off in less than in three years following modernization, while the effectiveness of such investment over 7 years may even exceed 400%.

When analyzing results obtained, one should take into account that the method allow estimating only direct benefits largely expressed as reduced losses from hydrometeorological hazards (direct economic losses). These estimates do not take into account indirect losses and damages which become apparent after the hydrometeorological hazard occurred or due to combination of HHs and unfavorable weather conditions. Data on indirect losses resulting, for example, in agriculture from reduced yield, quality of products, and lost profits (which can be much higher than 50% in crop production) is completely absent.

Table 4.1 Key Parameters for Benchmarking Assessment

Indicators Value

Weather dependency of the economy, % 42.5%Share of agriculture in GDP, % 18.1%Status of NMHS and hydrometeorological service provision 1*

Vulnerability to weather hazards 3*Average annual GDP in 2000-2006 (USD million in the 2006 prices) 7 383

Average annual fi nancing of NMHS in 2004-2006 (USD million in the 2006 prices)*** 1.7

*rank from 1 to 5 (from “very poor” to “”excellent”)**range variable ranking from 1 to 5 (from “low” to “high”)** the proceeds from all budget sources, including specialized hydrometeorological service provisions

Source: Turkmenhydromet data and authors’ esti mates

Table 4.2 Indicative Results of Benchmarking Assessment (in 2006 prices)

Average annual losses incurred caused by weather hazards (USD million) 42.0Average annual losses incurred (% of GDP) 0.57

Average annual preventable losses (USD million) 23.0

Average annual incremental benefi ts due to improvement of hydrometeorological informati on and services (USD million)

17.7

Investment eff ecti veness, % (across 7 years) 413

Source: Authors’ esti mates

Table 4.2 presents the main results of assessing economic losses due to weather impacts and the marginal economic benefits from the use of the improved hydrometeorological information and services. It should be noted that presented results are indicative because basic macroeconomic parameters are not sufficiently reliable.


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Turkmenistan could get an even higher actual economic benefit from implementing the Program as the above appraisal has not taken into account some other components of an economic effect from the Program implementation, such as improving the operation of households. Additionally, upgrading the system of forecasting and warning of any hazardous hydrometeorological events would contribute to improving the living standards of local residents, especially within the areas affected by floods and mudflows, to securing the transport safety, especially the safety of aircraft, off-shore hydrocarbons extraction, marine transport & pipeline transport, and to resolving any tasks in the area of environmental safety.

In the absence of reliable macroeconomic parameters and systematic registration of economic losses suffered by the Turkmeni-stan economy and population from the entire range of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena, it would be desirable:

• To recalculate economic benefits once major macroeconomic parameters are vetted by international agencies; • To intensify efforts to develop and improve sector-specific methodologies for calculating economic benefits from (economic efficiency of) the use of hydrometeorological information and systematization of collected data on economic losses both from specific weather hazards across the national economy (‘natural’ integration of losses) and on a sector-specific basis (‘sec-toral’ integration of losses through the summation of sector-specific losses caused by all types of HH); • To elaborate basic principles and mechanisms of interaction with entities in major weather-dependent sectors in order to develop and improve the range of standard and specialized hydrometeorological products and services promoting, and there after grounding on the estimates of weather hazards related damage (losses), potentially preventable due to the use of the improved hydrometeorological information in specific sectors; and • To conduct expert assessments of NMHS modernization efficacy for specific regions and the most significant weather-dependent sectors in the regions, taking into account the country’s diversity of regional climatic and economic conditions.

4.4. SUMMARY

Assessment of the economic benefits from improved weather service delivery to Turkmenistan economy and population as a result of NMHS modernization is only indicative due to poor quality of main macroeconomic indicators.

In fact, the economic efficacy of investing in the Turkmenhydromet modernization was assessed on the basis of the benchmark-ing approach. Interaction with experts from weather-dependant sectors was undergone to collect information for sector-specific assessment via dissemination of questionnaire and face-to-face interview. None of experts was able to provide any quantitative information on his/her sector or even experts’ judgments on the increments of potential sectoral benefits in terms of modernization of NMHS and improvement of hydrometeorological services provisions. The cost/benefit analysis was also conducted by apply-ing the data on average annual losses calculated through the benchmarking assessments.

Benchmarking assessments indicated that significant economic benefits in Turkmenistan can be realized from the use of im-proved hydrometeorological information and services. The investments in the NMHS modernization would yield significant ben-efits, with relatively high potential returns on investments.


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CHAPTER 5. HOW TO IMPROVE WEATHHR AND CLIMATE SERVICE

DELIVERY IN TURKMENINSTAN

5.1. POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT

(MODERNIZATION PROPOSAL)

Modernization of Turkmenistan NHMS is primarily aimed at reducing the risks to human lives and economy as a result of weather and climate phenomena. Efforts to achieve the above objectives include modernization and technical upgrading of the NHMS, and implementation of activities to optimize the institutional structure, improve the scientific and methodological basis, provide professional upgrading of the staff, and establish quality control of hydrometeorological data.

As a result of project implementation the national and regional public authorities, sector ministries and population of Turkmeni-stan will receive better weather forecasts and climatic data, which will, in turn, facilitate economic growth and enable to safe hu-man lives by taking the required preventive measures at the national and regional levels.

Performance indicators of the proposed project include at least 10-fold increase in the amount of meteorological data and products obtained from various sources, restored system of marine observations in the Caspian Sea coastal region and tempera-ture-wind atmosphere sounding sites, improved measurement accuracy of major meteorological parameters, increased accuracy of weather forecasts (by 6-8% for daily forecasts and by 15% for 3-7 day ones), improved system of measurement data transition within Turkmenistan, saving of the national fund of hydrometeorological data, improved accuracy of stream flow measurements on the Amu Darya River and Kara Kum Canal, transfer to an improved model of Turkmenhydromet operations. The latter task requires institutional changes, improvements in the scientific and technical base of the NHMS and strengthening of technical ca-pacity through implementing advances working methods, staff professional upgrading and strengthening of the financial status of Turkmenhydromet.

Investment options were selected on the basis of the following considerations. First, it is required to create conditions for Turk-menhydromet to perform major functions on hydrometeorological support of economic development. Second, Turkmenhydromet’ capacity to produce timely forecasts of unfavorable and hazardous weather events must be restored and improved. Third, it is required to strengthen the institutional and management structure, improve staff qualification and ensure financial and economic stability of Turkmenhydromet. Fourth, efforts should be made to ensure fulfillment by Turkmenistan of its international obligations under WMO membership, as well as other international agreements both in terms of the qualitative and quantitative components of produced observational data.

Financial sustainability of project outcomes will depend on the proper functioning and maintenance of Turkmenhydromet infra-structure – both the existing and newly established one. Above all, it should be emphasized that, despite the evident shortage of funds, the Service has managed to maintain its functioning during the recent years though it had to overcome considerable difficul-ties related to the lack of measuring instrumentation, expendables, spare parts and materials. As a result, a considerable part of equipment remained operative not only till the end of service life but much longer. However, one has to note that the NHMS had to reduce the program of observations and obviously the quality of observational data.

Reliable operation of equipment and systems will be ensured in case Turkmenhydromet is able to systematically follow the principles of service life management, including the replacement of equipment upon expiration of the designed service life.

When developing scenarios of reorganization and transfer to the improved performance model, it is recommended to consider the following changes aimed at improving management efficiency and quality of hydrometeorological services provided to public authorities and economic entities:

• Reorganize the structure of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology in Ashgabat to separate administrative and operational functions in the central office, establish departments responsible for network management and scientific/method-ological support, and a department performing organization of hydrometeorological services to users and management of the observational network in Akhal velayat (region); • Strengthen velayat (regional) HMC as major providers of services to regional users and individual economic entities, and centers of data collection from the observational network and dissemination (making available to users) of hydrometeorologi-cal information and products;• Divest aviation meteorological centers (AMCG) of the task to collect data from the observational network, removing them from the structure of velayat HMC and transferring under the management of the Aviation Meteorological Center in Ashga-bat;• Consider project proposals to equip the Service with modern information technologies for the production and dissemina-tion of information products.


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5.1.1. RECOMMENDATIONS ON STRENGTHHNING AND TECHNICAL UPGRADING

OF TURKMENHYDROMET

Two options for the modernization were considered. The first is the most comprehensive restoring and improving the observing network and providing new service capabilities. The second option is a lower cost version of Option 1 (Table 5.1).

The details and costs of both options are listed in Annex 6. Option 1 is the preferred option (Table 5.2) and is discussed in more detail below.

Table 5.1 Modernization Options

Opti on Cost (USD M)1. Comprehensive modernizati on of observing system and services USD302. Low cost opti on providing similar, but limited improvement to the

observing system and servicesUSD5.4

Main components Sub-components and acti viti esEsti mated cost (USD)

A. Technical design Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunicati on system

940,000

B. Improve the system of hydrometeorological monitoring to provide ti mely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and to manage water resources

B1. Technical upgrading of the observati onal network 20,020,000

Surface Observing Network 5,100,000

Upper air sounding systems and meteorological radars 9,590,000

Modernize the hydrological network 4,270,000

Creati on of quality control system for data and hydromet products 860,000

B2. Strengthen the IT base of Turkmenhydromet 5,150,000

Refurbishment of data collecti on and telecommunicati on centers, introducti on of new technologies

2,250,000

Archive equipment 2,900,000

C. Insti tuti onal strengthening and capacity building

C1. Strengthen the insti tuti onal, legal and regulatory framework and staff training

1,480,000

Bring the scienti fi c and methodological framework into compliance with WMO guidelines and recommendati ons

300,000

Draft and enforce guidelines on how to conduct observati ons (including remote sensing), and how to process, store and submit informati on 580,000

Prepare training, professional development and staff moti vati on program, launch its implementati on including procurement of equipment for training center 600,000

C2. Enhance Service Delivery 1,230,000

Study user needs, evaluati on of effi cacy of hydromet service delivery, users training 550,000

Develop technologies and the Procedures for disseminati ng urgent informati on on natural disasters, technologies to present weather forecasts on TV and development of NMHS Web site 380,000

Improve Nati onal Climate Service 300,000C3. Improving the natural disaster and hazardous hydrometeorological event warning system 1,180,000

Procure an autonomous emergency hydrometeorological support system and introduce meteorological drop kits 790,000Develop warning procedures, data bases and introduce detailed visualizati on equipment 390,000

Table 5.2 Basic Modernization Option


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A large-scale technical and institution modernization of Turkmenhydromet is proposed to deliver more accurate and longer lead time forecasts and improved staff skills. Improved communication, data collection and presentation technologies will provide a better hydrometeorological service delivery system, will make it possible to:

• Achieve the key objective of modernization, i.e. reduce the risk to life and damage to the economy caused by weather and climate-related events and disasters; • Fulfill regional and international obligations of Turkmenistan;• Fill the gap between increasing demands of the Government for hydrometeorological information and capabilities of Turk-menhydromet to deliver the required information and information products; • Achieve a “satisfactory” level of Turkmenhydromet in terms of technology (compared with the general technological level of NMHSs of WMO Member States).

LARGE SCALE PROGRAMS OF ACTIONS ON STRENGTHHNING AND TECHNICAL UPGRADING

OF TURKMENHYDROMET (OPTION 1)

There are three main activities or components in all modernization programs which include (i) Technical Design of the Mod-ernized System; (ii) Improvement of the System of hydrometeorological Monitoring to Provide Timely Warnings of Extreme and Hazardous Weather Events and to Manage Water Resources and (iii) Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building of Turk-menhydromet.

COMPONENT A. TECHNICAL DESIGN OF THH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING

AND TELE-COMMUNICATION SYSTEM

The level of details provided in the modernization options proposed below is comparable with the level of pre-feasibility study. More detailed work on the technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system is needed which ideally should be based on the overall concept of the Turkmenhydromet development. Technical solutions should be based on the comprehensive review of Turkmenhydromet and the existing international experience gained in establishing such systems, which are adapted to the particular circumstances and capabilities of each country in order to ensure a sustainable solution. Technical specifications and main tender documents for procurement are expected to be developed under this component. It is important to ensure compatibility of all technical devises and system. This component includes:

• Developing the concept of Turkmenhydromet development• Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication system• Development of technical specifications and main tender documents

COMPONENT B. IMPROVE THH SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL MONITORING TO PROVIDE TIMELY

WARNINGS OF EXTREME DISASTERS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHHR EVENTS AND TO MANAGE WATER

RESOURCES

Improving the system of hydrometeorological monitoring will enable the NMHS to provide timely warnings to agencies respon-sible for reducing and preventing damage to the economy and population caused by natural weather events. Mitigation of their consequences and better emergency preparedness is an important component of the modernization program. Improvement of the hydrological observing and forecasting systems is also essential for efficient national water resources management and to fulfill Turkmenistan’s obligations under international agreements. Within this component the following is proposed:

B1. TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF THH OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK

The objective is to modernize the meteorological network and key sites of the hydrological monitoring network; restore marine observations in the Caspian Sea coastal area and temperature-wind sounding sites; establish the system of early storm warning based on modern Doppler marine radars (MR). The activities include the following:

RESTORATION AND TECHNICAL UPGRADE OF THH METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK

• Ensure that all operational stations of the ground-based meteorological observation network playing an important role in producing weather forecasts for the national territory and individual velayats, as well as airfields and internal airlines are equipped with automatic meteorological systems including measurement facilities for major meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, wind direction and velocity, air temperature and humidity, atmospheric precipitation and soil tem-perature), system controls, data collection and transmission units, and thunderstorm protection facilities. First of all, upgrad-


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ing should be provided at meteorological stations included in the WMO RAII Regional Basic Synoptic Network (16 sta-tions). Meteorological stations in Repetek, Bekrev (Ashgabat), Esenguly, Akmolla and Turkmenabat should be additionally equipped with actinometric instruments.• Provide inaccessible stations (IAS) with independent power supply sources (including renewable ones), modern warm backup communication systems (radio communication and personal (fixed) satellite communication), and antenna-feeder devices. Create sectional radio stations at each velayatе (HMC), and at meteorological station in Darvaz.• Introduce up to 40 automatic meteorological stations (AMS) and rainfallmeasuring units at the ground-based meteorologi-cal observation network. AMS should be predominantly installed at meteorological, agrometeorological and hydrological monitoring sites where security of equipment could be provided. • Establish a rotating pool (20% of meteorological and hydrological meters and controllers) and spare parts stock to ensure reliable continuous operation of the installed automatic systems for at least 5 years. • Procure cross-country vehicles (at least 5) to ensure the functioning of observational network and, above all, IAS.

RENEW TEMPERATURE-WIND SOUNDING OF THH ATMOSPHHRE OVER TURKMENISTAN

Establish (restore) temperature-wind sounding sites near meteorological stations in Ashgabat, Turkmenbashi, Esenguly, Dashoguz and Tagtabazar, including the delivery and installation of aerological radars, profile measurement instruments and gas generators, as temperature-wind sounding data considerably affect the quality of weather forecasts and provide an essential element of global meteorological models. Emperaturewind sounding should be, first of all, renewed at stations in Ashgabat, Turk-menbashi, and Esenguly.

Location of equipment and creation of working conditions for the staff at Turkmenbashi, Esenguly, Dashoguz and Tagtabazar requires construction of appropriate buildings. Despite the relatively high cost of aerological radars, installation of such equipment will ensure low cost of one-time sounding. Installation of profile measurement instruments will enable to improve the quality of fore-casting adverse weather conditions, and develop recommendations on how to reduce the level of pollution in large urban centers.

INSTALL DOPPLER RADARS

Install Doppler meteorological radars in Ashgabat and Turkmenbashi (a separate building combined with AE) to improve early storm warning in essential economic areas and densely populated areas, as well as international airports. A separate building (combined with AE) is required near Turkmenbashi, inter alia, to provide space for HMC staff in Balkan velayat.

RENEW KEY OBSERVATION SITES OF THH HYDROLOGICAL NETWORK, AND EQUIP OPERATING POSTS WITH

ADDITIONAL INSTRUMENTS AND DEVICES

Modernize the system of hydrological observations in the Amu Darya, Murgab, Tenzhen and Etrek River basins including the installation of automatic hydrological measurement systems and introduction of mobile hydrological laboratories to ensure precise monitoring of stream flow in the Amu Darya River and Kara Kum Canal, and water level in the Murgab, Tenzhen and Etrek Rivers.

ESTABLISH MARINE OBSERVING NETWORK

Equip marine hydrometeorological stations in Karabogaz, Duzlybogas, Guvlymayak, Turkmenbashi, Khazar and Ogryzha with instruments to measure oceanographic parameters; establish a new observation site at the Caspian Sea coast near Ekrem; introduce an oceanographic laboratory onboard a motor boat with seaworthiness up to 4 to perform surface water monitoring in the Caspian Sea, provide hydrometeorological support of marine operations, and design hydraulic engineering facilities.

B2. STRENGTHHN THH IT BASE OF TURKMENHYDROMET

The objective is to provide modern software/hardware support of Turkmenhydromet HMCs to ensure efficient and timely collection (accumulation) of data from the observational network, receipt and processing of information products of the leading world meteorological centers, which, in turn, will enable to improve the quality and advance time of forecasts and thus improve meteorological services provided to the authorities and economy. In addition, it is planned to arrange for the storage of hard copy records under adequate temperature and humidity conditions, procure equipment for data scanning and recognition, servers with disk drives, virtual servers with tape carrier packaging, a tape driver and disk memory of the required capacity.


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TECHNICAL UPGRADING OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA RECEIVING SYSTEMS

• Modernize technologies for meteorological data and product receipt at the National HMC of Turkmenhydromet (Ashga-bat) to increase the amount of information obtained via satellite communication links up to 0.5 GB per day;• Introduce modern technologies for data receipt, visualization and dissemination at velayat HMC; • Establish centers for data collection from observational networks at velayat HMC;• Equip Turkmenhydromet HMCs with computers and equipment for issuing information products in hard copies to provide hydrometeorological information services to users;• Install at the National HMC of Turkmenhydromet (Ashgabat) receivers of satellite data from orbital meteorological satellites NOAA (POES), METEOR, FY-1, FY-3, NPOESS with low spatial resolution (1-10 km), as well as data processing software.

MODERN COMPUTER TECHNOLOGIES FOR PROCESSING, FORECASTING AND PRESENTATION

OF INFORMATION

Modern computer technologies for data processing, forecasting and representation will enable to improve the quality of fore-casts produces by the National HMC of Turkmenhydromet. The introduced technology should be based on buildingblock concept both in terms of the range of special-purpose AWS and the functional capacity of each AWS, and allow specialization of AWS in such areas as meteorology, land hydrology, marine hydrology and agricultural meteorology. It is proposed to procure for the Na-tional HMC of Turkmenhydromet a set of software products/licenses to establish 5 workplaces for specialists in agrometeorology, marine and hydrological forecasting providing for integration of forecasting technologies for Hydrologist’s AWS, Agrometeorolo-gist’s AWS, Oceanologist’s AWS with that for Weather Forecaster’s AWS, as well as to adapt for Turkmenistan and introduce regional weather forecasting numerical models and numerical model for the Caspian Sea marine area.

DEVELOP A DATABASE ON IMPACTS OF EXTREME AND HAZARDOUS WEATHHR EVENTS

This requires a continuous dialog and input from weather sensitive sectors and the public.

RESCUE THH NATIONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA FUND AND ESTABLISH AN AUTOMATED

DATA ARCHIVE

Saving the national fund of hydrometeorological data and establishing a modern computerized databank, above all, require establishment of a storage for paper records equipped with shelf stands, artificial lighting and adequate temperature/humidity conditions. It is also recommended to use the opportunity and request historical hydrometeorological records from the WMO World Data Center. A program should be developed to convert the data in digital format, including blueprinting and digitizing of paper records, and conversion of handwritten materials to electronic format. Digitalizing would require procurement of equipment for paper record archival: commercial OCR scanners, other special devices for work with hard copy documents. Data validation and archival equipment will enable to improve the efficiency of the system. In addition to paper record digitalizing and recognition, a technology for digital image storage should also be in place.

• Storage system: at least, a mediumlevel RAID, a storage server enabling to control the RAID, as well as load and select the required information; • Software for data management and indexing enabling to work with both digital images and data files in view of the receipt of operational and restricteduse information.

Security fetch protection should also be provided with no direct external access being allowed to exclude data loss.

ESTABLISH QUALITY CONTROL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND PRODUCTS

Activities on establishing quality control of hydrometeorological data and products are aimed at improving the quality of data obtained from the observational network and kept in the databank, and information products provided to users, and include the following:

• Introduce stationary automated verification facilities for meteorological and hydrological measurement instruments• Install and introduce stationary verification facilities for instruments to measure atmospheric pressure, air temperature, rela-tive air humidity, air flow direction and speed, meteorological range of visibility and clod base height;• Install and introduce stationary verification facilities for hydrometric current meter calibration.• Introduce mobile verification and repair laboratories for on-site measurement instrument calibration.• Establish quality control system, inter alia, for output products and archive data from the national data bank.• Introduce automated data quality control system;• Define financing arrangements and organizational procedures for using WMO Regional Centers to perform calibration of reference measurement instruments.


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COMPONENT C. INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHHNING AND CAPACITY BUILDING

C1. STRENGTHHN THH INSTITUTIONAL, LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK AND STAFF TRAINING

STRENGTHHN TURKMENHYDROMET REGULATIONS

A lot needs to be done to bring the scientific and methodological base of the National Service in compliance with WMO Guidelines and Manuals, and, given the lack of national guidelines, focus on the development and implementation of national regulations regarding observations, data processing, storage and representation, as well as methodological guidelines on the operational practice in view of the upgrading of the observational network including the temperature-wind and remote sounding measurements.

This would help improve the management and planning efficiency, provide sound scientific and methodological support of NHMS functioning, and introduce procedures for product delivery, operation and maintenance of the system. Implementation of these activities would enable to define the appropriate arrangement of major system elements, e.g., monitoring system, new fore-casting methods, modernized management system.

Bringing the scientific and methodological base of NHMS activities in compliance with WMO guidelines and recommenda-tions using the experience of NHMS in CIS countries:

• Receive and adapt the WMO and CIS NHMS regulations on observational practice, data processing, storage and repre-sentation; • According to the procedure established by national legislation and practice, adopt Turkmenhydromet regulations on ob-servational practice, data processing, storage and representation; • Develop draft methodological guidelines on observational practice in view of the upgrading of observational networks, including the temperature-wind and remote sounding measurements.

IMPROVE STAFF TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL UPGRADES

A modern NMHS needs highly skilled employees, who refresh and upgrade their capabilities to meet the ever changing requirements of the service. External training programs for the staff should focus on as few training centers as possible so that the training is consistent and the skills readily shared across the organization.

While the basic meteorological and hydrological products will not change dramatically, new technical and service related expertise will be needed. This will require an overall upgrading of skills and responsibilities and a long term plan for staffing, which should be defined in the context of the technical refurbishment and service delivery strategy29. This should be reviewed in the con-text of other modernization efforts currently underway.

Areas requiring enhancement:• Project management• Technical skills to support observing networks• Enhanced skills in weather forecasting using numerical methods• Knowledge of social, environmental, and economic sectors sufficient to provide consulting services to their users• Enhanced skill in climate prediction using numerical methods• Greater computer literacy for all staff• Public education and outreach• IT management skillsThe current approach is, of necessity, piecemeal and results in varying capabilities depending on where the training was con-

ducted making it difficult for two members of staff to apply the same methods to a common task.Language is also an issue and wherever possible courses should be conducted in Russian. Senior scientific staff, likely to at-

tend international working meetings of the WMO or other organizations, would benefit from English language courses since these meetings do not generally include interpretation. This would enable Turkmen staff to play a more active role in the international community and take advantage of the training capacity available in China and elsewhere.

Ongoing training is also a means of retaining junior staff longer and would compensate partially for relatively low pay grades. A welldefined continuous training program would provide more career opportunities and encourage staff to remain longer in the service while they acquire these new skills.

As a first step, arrangements should be made for practical training of personnel at specialized hydrometeorological training institutions and NMHSs in foreign countries and CIS. The required activities include:

• training courses for the observational staff of hydrometeorological stations and sites including the training of key staff at the WMO Regional Training Center in Kuchino, Moscow Region, Russia,• Arrange visits of Committee Chairperson to 2-3 NMHS with WMO assistance,

29 Various guidelines on service delivery issues are available from WMO Public Weather Services Programme in English only.


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• transfer of experience and participation of specialists in training sessions dedicated to the development and implementa-tion of new forecasting techniques, • use of satellite information in weather forecasting and analysis, • utilization of hydrometeorological devices and facilities, • more efficient work with climatic dataIn view of expected significant changes in Turkmenhydromet associated with the introduction of modern technologies, and the

need for professional upgrading of NMHS staff, this project component seems highly important for the achievement of project objectives, and provides for the implementation of the following activities:

• Establish a center for professional upgrading and retraining of observational unit staff; to this end, provide the center with appropriate technical aids including equipment and training materials; • Improve the level of qualification and professional skills of the NMHS personnel to enable the staff to operate newly intro-duced measurement devices and information technologies • Provide training of managers and specialists in marketing of hydrometeorological services.

C2. ENHANCE SERVICE DELIVERY

In the past few years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has highlighted the importance of service delivery and the need for NMHSs to be more customer or user focused to ensure that their products are used optimally for social and economic benefit.

Traditionally, NMHSs dealt with customers with a significant amount of training in meteorology, such as aviation or marine services. Today, however, more sectors of the economy are weather and climate sensitive resulting in a new client base demand-ing new products. However, since these users often have little knowledge and understanding of the specifics of weather, water and climate in their decisions, there is a need for a more collaborative approach to service delivery that involves both the provider and the user of the services. Unless this active engagement occurs, the users are often unable to utilize meteorological information effectively and though important, it is often discounted as factor in decision making.

Any technical refurbishment and enhancement of the Turkmen NMHS must be accompanied by investment in service delivery that meets the ever changing needs of society and the economy. Ultimately the value of the NMHS will be measured in terms of the behavior of users and the outcomes of their decisions. This means strengthening the capacity of the NMHS to deliver quantifiable social and economic benefits from their core activities.

Key elements include:• The capacity to understand and interact effectively with stakeholders using staff trained appropriately• Continuous engagement of stakeholders through frequent meetings and workshops to understand the changing needs of users and current performance of Turkmenhydromet • Establishing a customer advisory body, which includes representatives of all stakeholders • Easily accessible products through the web and other media • Well defined service agreements between the Turkmenhydromet and each customer• Special attention to key user groups

MEDIA

The media are an important sector through which a NMHS communicates its products and services to the public. Since the media are usually at the leading edge of public information services collaboration with this sector can be used to develop visual-ization tools and a platform for the public dissemination of forecasts.

In general the cost of this effort is borne by the media, which can recover the investment through their own revenue streams, either through government appropriation or advertising income.

The media is also the outlet for information about the NMHS and as such it is an important means of securing public visibility. A proactive approach to the media is essential in order to produce a favorable view of a NMHS. A reactive approach usually means that the NMHS is defending itself against public criticism for a failed forecast, which is inevitable, without the benefit of a sympathetic public.

CREATE A NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE WITHIN THH NMHS

A particularly important enhancement of the mission of any NMHS is the addition of a dedicated climate service, which should be viewed as an equal to the traditional weather forecasting and hydrological service missions. A National Climate Service (NCS) transforms the traditional climatological role of a NMHS, which focuses on the collection and mapping of meteorological data to a full user-oriented service, which can be provided as an integral part of the services delivered by the NMHS.


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Climate information is needed for planning and construction of buildings and facilities, and for the assessment of the impact of climate variations and change on the Turkmen economy and to provide a sound scientific basis for adaptation.

Climate change risk reduction is a priority for development and therefore particularly important in developing and transitional economies. This requires adequate monitoring and dissemination programs at the national level to assess risks, and the institutional capacity to develop the national capability to transform climate data, which will enable the government to include climate informa-tion in economic development programs.

In general, the NCS function of the NMHS should include key users, who have responsibility for the application of climate information within their specific sector. This will help to establish the appropriate roles and responsibilities of the NMHS versus other organizations that have responsibility for climate change policy, such as the State Agency on Environmental Protection and Forestry, which has responsibility for UN Framework Convention on Climate Change related activities. As in other countries, cli-mate change policymakers should rely on the NMHS for the provision of climate data and information relevant to their decisions.

The NCS would have primary responsibility for services to climatesensitive sectors, although both weather and climate informa-tion are required by most. These sectors include development, finance, energy, water resource management, agriculture, urban planning and health, amongst others. Many of these sectors overlap and interact. For example, public health includes food secu-rity, access to clean water and sanitation – each dependent on the climate and weather extremes.

Managing the interactions between stakeholders is the responsibility of all of the relevant sectors. Various mechanisms exist to encourage inter sector cooperation across all of civil society, both public and private.

IMPROVE COMMERCIAL SERVICES

In addition to their role as a public service provider, NMHSs are often encouraged to recover costs or provide a return on investment to their “owner”. While this is an attractive way to provide additional revenue for the NMHS, it needs to be managed carefully to ensure that the public mission is achieved as a public good and that the commercial services are offered competitively.

A number of different approaches to commercial services exist, including:• A Government-owned (Single shareholder) company that delivers contracted services to the government;• A Government meteorological service, which spinsoff and owns a separate entity to provide competitive commercial services. All profits from the commercial service can be reinvested in the commercial service or returned to the shareholder (the government). Separation of the commercial and government entity prevents crosssubsidies from the public sector to the commercial venture;• A Government meteorological service that provides a public service for some customers (with the costs borne by the ser-vice for data that are considered essential based on WMO resolution 40). Users may be required to pay for additional data. This is the more common arrangement with no institutional distinction between the commercial and non-commercial activities;• A Government meteorological service that provides all of its data and information as a public service.Whichever approach, if any, is chosen, it is important that the government adheres to the international policy (WMO Resolu-

tion 40) on the free and unrestricted international exchange of meteorological and related data and products, which are required to describe and forecast accurately weather and climate, and support WMO Programs.

The initial aim is to: • Develop an appropriate business model for the delivery of commercial weather, climate and hydrological services in Turk-menistan in response to the needs of the commercial sector and governmental contracting requirements.

C.3 IMPROVING THH NATURAL DISASTER AND HAZARDOUS hydrometeorological EVENT WARNING SYSTEM

To reduce damage to agriculture, cattle-breeding, public utilities, motor, air and railway transport requires an Increasing the level of preparedness to emergency situations, improving procedures and emergency action plans seems highly relevant to the project. The following activities are proposes under this component:

• Study international experience in establishing the system of warnings about extreme and hazardous hydrometeorological events and reducing associated damage;• Perform zoning of the country’s territory in terms of EHH and HH probability;• Improve cooperation with national and regional authorities in providing warnings about extreme and hazardous weather events, including the development of coordination plans.• Develop warning procedures at the national and regional levels: • Elaborate and put into effect Procedures for issuing and disseminating urgent information on the risk or occurrence of natu-ral disasters, as well as collection and transmission of data on disaster consequences. • Introduce an autonomous system of hydrometeorological support in case of emergency situations, and amphibious meteo-rological kits


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ASSESSMENT OF OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS

When planning the introduction of new equipment, one should realize that operation and maintenance of instruments would require financial and technical support provided on a continuous basis throughout the life cycle of equipment. It is clear therefore that proposed modernization Turkmenhydromet will increase the operational costs for both options to ensure efficient operation of modernized observational networks and data collection and processing centers. Considerable increase is attached to the implementation of temperature-wind atmosphere sounding at the rehabilitated aerological stations in Ashgabat, Turkmenbashi, and Esenguly. Expenditures of once a day temperature-wind sounding, assuming the cost of the balloon equal to USD30 and that of radio sounder – USD70, make up USD38 thousand per year. The cost of radio sounder based on satellite navigation will be about USD200 which will increase annual expenditures to about 85 thousand. The cost of technical maintenance of the complex after the end of the warranty period can be in the range of USD15-25 thousand per year including spare parts. Operation and maintenance of two Doppler radars in Ashgabat and Turkmenbashi will require at least USD30 thousand per year.

The average cost of spare parts, maintenance and reliable operation of meteorological and hydrological systems, including those installed in remote, hard-to-access regions, hitech equipment and transport vehicles after the end of the warranty period is estimated at a level of 10% in the first five years of operation. Therefore to ensure reliable operation of the installed equipment USD190 thousand per year including the cost of recruited staff services. Operation of 7 complexes measuring oceanographic parameters will require some USD80 thousand a year including spare parts.

The cost of communication services – data transmission from 32 measuring stations and gauges and 40 automated meteoro-logical stations and complexes (AMSs and AMCs) (lower level communication ) is estimated at USD18 thousand per year; the cost of satellite communication channels for Ashgabat and four veloyat HMC will be USD10 thousand per year. The costs of fuel for the vehicles to be supplied, electricity, SPL and calibration devices for hydrometric current meters depend on operating rules established for these instruments, and can amount to USD 15 thousand per year. Annual operating and maintenance costs to sup-port oceanographic ship are estimated at USD15000.

When estimating operational costs it should also be taken into account that travel expenses related to implementation of routine and repair works and staff training is expected to increase at least two-fold as well as expenses related to expendables (item of expenditure “stationery and administrative expenses, equipment”.

5.2. ACTION PLAN AND NEXT STEPS.

Financing of the Action Plan will likely be a combination of governmental funds, concessional financing from international fi-nancial institutions (IFIs), and international and bilateral donors’ support. The Action Plan will also be an integral part of a broader Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative on Disaster Risk Management (CAREC DRMI) which aims at reducing the vulnerability of the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus to the risks of disasters.

The CAC DRMI incorporates three focus areas: (i) coordination of disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response; (ii) financ-ing of disaster losses, reconstruction and recovery, and disaster risk transfer instruments such as catastrophe insurance and weather derivatives, and (iii) hydrometeorological forecasting, data sharing and early warning. The initiative would be coordinated by World Bank, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) secretariat, and (for hydrometeorology) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), under the CAREC umbrella. The Initiative will build on the existing cooperation that already exists in the region, and will complement and consolidate activities of the IFIs, the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN agencies, regional cooperation institutions, bilateral donors such as the Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC), Japan International Coop-eration Agency (JICA), and others to promote more effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. It was agreed by donors and international organizations to convene in November 2009 a regional Central Asia Workshop aimed at improvement of hydrometeorological services and early warning systems. It is hoped that specific approaches towards funding commitments as well regional coordination and implementation modalities will be made during this workshop.


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ANNEXES

Annex I. List, criteria and description of impacts of main hydrometeorological hazards in Turkmenistan

hydrometeorological hazards and their criteria Objects aff ected by hazardous events

1 Strong wind (15 m/s and greater)

Faciliti es, residenti al houses, power lines, communicati on lines, railway, air and motor transport, roads, oil and gas pipelines, constructi on projects, trees, billboards

2 Heavy rain (20 mm and more within 12 h)

Crop areas, residenti al houses and buildings, cellars, railway and motor roads, hydraulic works

3 Strong heat (40оС and higher during 5 days and longer) People, crop areas (especially cott on plants), railway and motor roads

4 Severe frost (-15оС and lower during 5 days and longer) People, fruit trees, animals, heat pipelines, motor roads, oil and gas pipelines, water lines, communal infrastructure faciliti es

5 Floods and mudfl ows (storm rainfalls with intensity of 20 mm and more in mountain river basins)

Flooding of citi es, populated localiti es, agricultural lands, railway and motor roads, destructi on of hydraulic works, bridges, communicati on lines, power lines, death of humans and animals

6 Heavy hail (20 mm in diameter and larger)

Hail damage, agricultural crops, gardens, house roofs, cars

7 Glazed frost (diameter of ice deposit 20 mm and more)

Motor transport, pedestrians, air transport, communicati on and power lines

8 Dust storms (winds peed 15 m/s and greater, visibility 50 m and less)

Air transport, local populati on, railway and motor transport, power lines, communicati on lines, buildings, residenti al houses, trees, billboards, communal infrastructure

9 Heavy fog (visibility 100 m and less)

Air and motor transport

10 Dry hot winds (wind, high air temperature, moisture defi cit 60-80 mb)

Rural residents, agricultural crops, pastures, animals (in some cases may lead to cott on yield losses up to 40%)

11 Drought (combinati on of high temperatures, precipitati on defi cit and low stored soil moisture (hydrothermal index = 0.4-0.6)

Dry land farming, pastures, animals (leads to degradati on of desert pastures)

12 Frosts, spring and autumn (air or soil temperature -1оС and lower)

Young agricultural crops, fruit trees, autumn output yield

13 Thunderstorms (any) Air transport, people, metal structures, power lines14 Ice jam on rivers

(at air temperature -15оС and lower during 5 days and longer)Flooding of citi es, populated localiti es, crop areas, destructi on of hydraulic works, bridges

15 Storm surge (wave height 1.5 m and higher)

Marine transport, fi sheries, coastal infrastructure



78

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Rain 30 mm and more

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Spring

Autumn

1983

454

138

84

11

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684

301

73

1984

4-6

134

503

82

11

3591

392

53

1985

262

232

232

102

231

57

1986

231

125

27

51

3811

824

210

9

1987

341

11

341

43

2910

640

26

1988

312

61

255

73

326

112

542

34

1989

402

541

13

218

119

421

135

1990

268

332

41

110

116

262

67

1991

251

14

264

53

416

117

363

53

1992

231

115

16

34

2210

730

110

9

1993

163

224

24

21

424

8321

25

2

1994

402

42

146

43

1972

142

68

1995

404

12

135

83

11

1373

163

8

1996

311

114

415

54

226

6115

18

5

1997

341

21

372

85

25

1463

91

72

1998

302

13

391

65

16

1758

56

5

1999

362

132

27

21

126

7218

28

2

2000

451

11

293

24

1977

61

61

2001

312

19

133

17

22

338

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Below -10oC

Below -20oC

Above 40oC

Above 45oC

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Rain 30 mm and more

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>15

>20

Spring

Autumn

2002

392

110

294

96

14

2380

112

71

2003

292

192

124

422

7824

48

2004

3521

16

53

123

111

181

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2005

251

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236

63

23

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2006

371

45

508

42

526

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175

364

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80

NN Date Event Region Impact Losses, TMM million

Timeliness of warning

1 June 14, 1986 Mudfl ow Serdar

(Kyzyl Arvat)

Highway and railway eroded. 950 heads of small catt le killed

1190 3 hours

2 August 06, 1986 Rain fl ood. Stream fl ow 1450 m3/s

Atrek River Dam came to emergency conditi on

3 August 05, 1987 Mudfl ow

Stream fl ow 97 m3/s

Sekizyap River

Geokdepe

Buildings and roads eroded 180 7 hours

4 April 09, 1991 Rain fl ood. Murgab River Water reached the fl oodplain5 April 10, 1991 Rain fl ood Tedzhen River Water reached the fl oodplain6 April 15, 1991 Snow and rain

fl ood. Stream fl ow 925 m3/s

Murgab River 287 residenti al buildings, motor road and railway, irrigati on faciliti es, 3955 ha of agricultural lands submerged

321589 48 hours

7 April 15, 1991 Rain fl ood. Stream fl ow 585 m3/s

Tedzhen River Water reached the fl oodplain

8 May 15, 1992 Rain fl ood.

Water level above the norm by 787 cm

Atrek River

Kyzyl Atrek

Dams and residenti al houses destroyed. Large mudrock fl ows occurred in Kopet Dag piedmonts. Human casualti es, catt le losses, fl ooded agricultural lands

9 May 02, 1992 Snow and rain fl ood

Murgab and Tedzhen Rivers

Agricultural lands, Tagtabazar railway stati on fl ooded, dams damaged

48 hours

10 May 15, 1992 Snow and rain fl ood

Amu Darya River, Turkmenabat (Chardzhou)

Water reached the fl oodplain 48 hours

11 June 25, 1992 High water.

Water level 30% above the norm

Amu Darya River, Turkmenabat

Ferry-boat passage destroyed, dams damaged. 7852 ha of agricultural crops fl ooded and washed away

638581.8 48 hours

12 March 24, 1993 Snow and rain fl ood. Water level 3 ti mes above the norm

Murgab River Dams eroded. Military airfi eld, 188 ha of agricultural lands fl ooded

16486 36 hours

13 April 15, 1993 Snow and rain fl ood. Stream fl ow 578 m3/s

Tedzhen River Water reached the fl oodplain. Dam eroded

36 hours

14 August 08, 1993 Mudfl ow Kopet Dag piedmonts, Iskander railway stati on

Railway bed eroded

15 August 16, 1993 Mudfl ow Stream fl ow 510 m3/s

Kaakhka, along the Loinsu river bed

Railway traffi c terminated, pipeline destroyed, agricultural lands fl ooded

4 hours

Annex 3. Description of selected significant events of main types of hydrometeorological hazards in Turkmenistanin in

1953-2007 and preliminary estimates of related economic losses

3.1. Floods and Mudflows


81



16 June 15, 1994 Snow fl oods Amu Darya River, Lebap velayat

Water reached the fl oodplain 96 hours

17 July 16, 1994 Snow fl oods, water level 25% above the norm

Amu Darya River, Lebap velayat

Dams burst, 700 ha of agricultural lands fl ooded. Collectors, pumping stati on, hydraulic structures destroyed

57058,4 48 hours

18 December 05, 1994

Rain fl ood. Murgab River. Tagtabazar

Dams eroded, 56 ha of winter crops fl ooded.

67,2

19 February 10, 1995 Rain fl ood.


Murgab River Bridges damaged, agricultural lands fl ooded, motor roads eroded

20 January 16, 1996 Air temperature -20оС, ice jams and links

Amu Darya River,

Birata (Darganata)

Water overfl owed the banks and fl ooded vast area. Areas under crops and pastures, motor road and pumping stati on fl ooded

96 hours

21 July 26, 1996 Mudfl ow Stream fl ow 725 m3/s

Kaakhka, along the Loinsu river bed

100 residenti al houses damaged, 58 of them completely destroyed, 5 bridges, 5 power transformers, 7 wells, 3.5 km of irrigati on network damaged, agricultural lands fl ooded

26970

22 March 28, 1997 Rain fl ood Murgab River Agricultural lands fl ooded23 April 21, 1997 Rain fl ood Murgab River.

Tagtabazar75 residenti al houses damaged, agricultural lands and Tagtabazar railway stati on fl ooded

19835 3 hours

24 June 02, 1997 Rain fl oods. Stream fl ow 136 m3/s

Firyuzinka River Archabil (Firyuza) sett lement fl ooded

25 June 04, 1997 Mudfl ow.

(32 mm/day)

Ashgabat Mudfl ow from Kopet Dag slopes. Streets and basements fl ooded

26 July 31, 1997 Mudfl ow Gyaurs and Kaakhka

Area along the railway at AnnauGyaurs secti on fl ooded

27 April 07, 1998 Rain fl ood.

(54 mm/day)


Murgab River Serkhetabat (Kushka)

Bridges, motor roads damaged. Vast areas of agricultural lands fl ooded.

263529 36 hours

28 April 08, 1998 Rain fl ood. (45 mm/day)


Tedzhen River. Ata aul

Agricultural lands, motor roads fl ooded

36 hours

29 July-August 1998 Snow fl ood

Stream fl ow 6250 m3/s. 145% above the norm

Amu Darya River Turkmenabat, Atamurat (Kerki)

Dams burst. Agricultural lands, motor roads fl ooded, pontoon bridges destroyed in Atamural and Turkmenabat

96 hours

30 July 25, 1998 Rain fl ood Atrek River. Kyzyl Atrek

Residenti al houses fl ooded over large area

36 hours

31 August 14, 1998 Rain fl ood Sumbar River. Magtymguly (Kara Kala)

Residenti al houses fl ooded over large area

36 hours

32 September 06, 1998

Mudrock fl ow Dzhebel, along the Oglanly river bed Dzhebel airport fl ooded

36 hours


82



33 July 22, 1999 Rain fl ood (96 mm/day)

Sumbar River. Magtymguly

Magtymguly fl ooded with mudfl ows. Telephone communicati on cut off

34 August 08, 2000 Mudfl ow Arvaz, Ipaikala Rivers

Seedlings fl ooded over large area in forest management unit, age-old trees uprooted, catt le loss reported

24 hours


Rain fl ood

(41 mm/day)

Sumbar River. Magtymguly

Motor road, power line bridges destroyed, agricultural lands and orchards fl ooded


Rain fl ood Atrek River. Kyzyl Atrek

Anti fl ood dam burst, 37 residenti al houses fl ooded. 189 people evacuated in safe area

9756


Rain fl ood Stream fl ow 98 m3/s

Sekizyap River

Geokdepe

Water overfl owed the banks, 100 m of motor road eroded, railway bed damaged, railway traffi c terminated

210

38 August 11, 2001 Rain fl ood (59 mm/day)

Sumbar River Water overfl owed the banks, 150 residenti al houses destroyed

39450

39 August 12, 2001 Rain fl ood. Water level 13.5 m above the criti cal mark

Atrek River. Kyzyl Atrek

Dam burst and water overfl owing the bed near Atrek. Vast area fl ooded. Multi ple destructi ons in fl ooded area

18200

40 August 25, 2001 Mudfl ow Arvaz, Ipaikala Rivers

Motor road destroyed, agricultural lands fl ooded, seedlings damaged in forest management unit

41 April 23, 2002 Rain fl ood


Murgab River.

Tagtabazar

Water overfl owed the banks, protecti ve dams burst, agricultural lands and residenti al houses in Tagtabazar fl ooded

255880 24 hours

42 May 04, 2002 Mudfl ow. Stream fl ow 119 m3/s

Firyuzinka River Mudfl ow fl ooded vast area at Archabil, meteorological site silted for 70 cm

9 hours

43 May 05, 2002 Mudfl ow fl ood. Stream fl ow 304 m3/s

Archynyansu River,

Kaakhka

35 m of railway bed eroded, vast territory and motor road fl ooded

44 June – July 2002 Snow fl ood. Stream fl ow 4500 m3/s

Amu Darya River,

Atamurat

Protecti ve dams burst, agricultural lands fl ooded, pontoon bridge across the Amu Darya River destroyed

45 March 28, 2003 Rain fl ood


Murgab River.

Tagtabazar

Water reached the fl oodplain, vast areas of agricultural lands fl ooded

194-691 48 hours

4-6 April 26, 2003 Snow and rain fl ood.

Stream fl ow 4-670 m3/s

Amu Darya River,

Atamurat

Water reached the fl oodplain, rice and cott on fi elds fl ooded

48 hours

47 June 02, 2003 Rain fl ood Sumbar River Telephone communicati on and power supply cut off , agricultural lands and populated areas in the Sumbar River valley fl ooded


83



48 June 13, 2003 Rain fl ood


Amu Darya River,

Atamurat

Water reached the fl oodplain, melon, rice and cott on plantati ons fl ooded

48 hours

49 July 22, 2004 Mudfl ow. Stream fl ow 132 m3/s

Small Balkhan slope near the Arkach railway stati on

Railway bed eroded, motor road damaged. Railway traffi c terminated for 5 hours

485

50 June 10, 2004 Flooding. Water level 67 cm above the criti cal mark

Amu Darya River,

Atamurat, Turkmenabat, Birata

Water reached the fl oodplain, areas under crops, melon, rice and cott on plantati ons fl ooded

210000 48 hours

51 July 02, 2005 Snow fl ood. Stream fl ow 7000 m3/s

Amu Darya River,

Atamurat

1 class dam burst, fl oodplains, rice and cott on plantati ons fl ooded, deigish event noted

185000 96 hours

52 August 09, 2005 Rain fl ood

(48 mm/day)

Sumbar River, Magtymguly

Floodplain fl ooded, Chat hydrological observati on site destroyed

45 12 hours

53 August 10, 2005 Rain fl ood Atrek River. Kyzyl Atrek

Floodplain fl ooded, Atrek hydrological observati on site destroyed

68 36 hours

54 May 15, 2007 Rain fl ood

Stream fl ow 42 m3s

Sekizyap River

Geokdepe

Seedlings fl ooded over 0.4 ha in forest management unit of Geokdepe etrap

75 12 hours

55 May 20, 2007 Snow fl ood. Water level 286 cm. Stream fl ow 4080 m3/s

Amu Darya River,

Atamurat, Turkmenabat

Water reached the fl oodplain, areas under crops, melon, rice and cott on plantati ons fl ooded

176000 24 hours

3.2. Strong Wind

NN Date Event Region Impact Losses Period of advance warning

1 August 03, 2003 Hurricane wind, 30 m/s

Geokdepe region,

Kopet Dag sett lement

1250 m of 110 kW power line destroyed, 4 reinforced concrete supports with wires and 12 wooden poles thrown down, roofs torn away from 38 houses

2 February 24,`2004

Squall wind, 26-30 m/s

Geokdepe sett lement

3 power line poles, lighti ng masts thrown down, roofs of 32 residenti al houses destroyed, roofs torn away from central marketplace, texti le plant, transport enterprise, food associati on. Adverti sing panels and lighti ng masts torn away in the central park

3 February 24, 2004 Hurricane wind, 28-32 m/s

Archman health resort

Power line destroyed, 30 poles thrown down. Telephone communicati on terminated, 50 wooden poles fell down. Roofs torn sway from 2 hospital buildings, main building façade damaged, numerous trees uprooted.


84


4 February 09, 2006 Hurricane wind, 29-33 m/s

Geokdepe region 20 km of power line destroyed. 31 reinforced concrete supports VL-220 kW LKW-1 thrown down. Roofs torn away from 28 houses.

5 April 04, 2006 Squall wind, 24-29 m/s, rainstorm

Akbugdai region (Gyaurs), Yashlyk sett lement

360 m of power line destroyed. 2 reinforced concrete supports VL-220 kW LKW-1 thrown down. Roofs torn away from 24 houses.

3.3. Dust Cyclone


1 March 13, 1953 Dust storm, wind speed 30 m/s

Kopet Dag, Ashgabat, Central Kara Kum Desert

Hurricane tore away house roofs, fell down hundreds trees, telephone and power line poles. Thickness of deposited dust over 6 mm

2 January 16, 1968 Dust storm, wind speed 30-35 m/s

Kopet Dag, Ashgabat, neighborhood

Hurricane tore away hundreds house roofs, fell down thousands trees, telephone and power line poles. Thickness of deposited dust over 10 mm, which made up 15-30 tons per hectare

3 December 23, 1975

Dust storm, wind speed 35-40 m/s

Kopet Dag, Ashgabat, 300 km zone

In Ashgabatе and neighborhood power and communicati on line poles and masts thrown down. Thickness of deposited dust 35 mm, 4-6 tons per hectare

4 December 19, 1985

Dust storm, wind speed 30-35 m/s

Kopet Dag, Ashgabat, neighborhood, central areas in Mary and Lebap velayats

In the city and neighborhood hundreds trees uprooted, power line supports and tree trunks broken, electricity cables torn, hundreds house roofs destroyed, several industrial buildings and engineering faciliti es damaged. Thickness of deposited dust 6-8 mm, 12-15 tons per hectare


Dust storm, wind speed

30-32 m/s

Kopet Dag, Ashgabat, neighborhood

In the city and neighborhood hundreds trees uprooted, power line supports and tree trunks broken, electricity cables torn, hundreds house roofs destroyed, several industrial buildings and engineering faciliti es damaged. Thickness of deposited dust 4-6 mm, 5-8 tons per hectare

Source: Turkmenhydromet records and esti mates


85

1976April 22, 1976: Rainstorm occurred in Ashgabat, daily precipitati on amount making up 80 mm. The rainstorms caused powerful mudfl ow

fl oods passing through Ashgabat. Railway and motor road fl ooded along the Geokdepe-Dushak secti on. Diking dams of the Kara Kum Channel eroded, agricultural lands fl ooded. Damage made up Rb 14 million. Advance warning period 44 hours. April 23, 1976: Powerful fl ood at the Atrek River, water stream made up 1400 m3/s, water level in Chat increased to 927 cm. The fl ood was caused by heavy rainfall occurred in Iran and Turkmenistan. Serious damage caused.

April 24-25, 1976: High rainfall fl ood occurred at the Tedzhen River, stream fl ow making up 1320 m3/s. This is the historical maximum for the whole period of observati ons. Damage caused. Water reached the fl oodplain and started bypassing the Tedzhen water reservoir creati ng a threat to the Kara Kum Channel. Motor road TedzhenSerakhs was eroded. Advance warning period 12 hours.

1977 Low water level in the Murgab River. Stream fl ow during the intensive water use period made up 40% of the norm. Damage caused to

agriculture. In 1977, mudfl ow occurred at the Chaacha River in Kaakha district, stream fl ow made up 1340 m3/s, railway eroded, fi elds and warehouses

fl ooded. Advance warning period 30 hours.1981

July 19-20, 1981: Heavy rainfall in Turkmenistan. On July 19, 1981, in Nebit Dag 53.5 mm within 12 hours. Major part of the city submerged, damage made up Rb 807,000. In Kazakdzhik – 42 mm within 12 hours; on July 20, 1981 – 13 mm, 58 mm within two days. In Kara Kal on July 19, 1981 – 75.5 mm within 12 hours, 92.5 mm during the day; on July 20, 1981 – 30 mm within 12 hours, 134.5 mm within two days. Damage: 200 houses fl ooded, 3 bridges destroyed, agricultural lands fl ooded. Advance warning period – none. Damage made up Rb 5 million.

July 20, 1981: Stream fl ow in the Sumbar River 1000 m3/s; in the Atrek River stream fl ow 1530 m3/s. Advance warning period 72 hours. Serious damage caused.

On March 28-29 and in April 1981: Heavy rainfall in Turkmenistan, especially in Tashauz region.May 13-14, 1981: 3550 mm hail in Khaus-Khan. Damage caused to agriculture.

19821982: Low water level in the Amu Darya River, 50% of the norm during the fl ood peak period.May 07, 1982: Mudfl ows in small rivers of Kopet Dag – Big Karanki, Ashgabadka, Baba-Zo. Total stream fl ow 118 m3/s, streets fl ooded in

Ashgabat, damage made up Rb 1 million. Advance warning period 6 hours. 1986

June 14, 1986: In Kyzyl Arvat, precipitati on amount made up 4-6 mm within 4 hours. Serious damage caused, motor road and railway eroded. 950 heads of small catt le killed. Advance warning period 3 hours.

August 06, 1986: Rain fl ood in the Atrek River. Stream fl ow 1450 m3/s. Flood resulted in emergency conditi on of dams in Kyzyl Atrek.1987

August 04-05, 1987: Mudlow in the Sekiz Yab River. Stream fl ow 97 m3/s, advance warning period 7 hours. Damage equaled about Rbls 1 million.

March 17, 1987: Tornado in Deinau district (Chardzhou region), wind speed 23 m/s, thunderstorm with rainfall and hail, hailstone diameter 3050 mm. Damage: houses damaged, crops fl ooded.

1991April 08-09 and 14-15, 1991: Powerful snow and rain fl oods in the Murgab River, stream fl ow on April 15, 1991 made up 925 m3/s

(maximum for the whole period of pbservati ons). 287 residenti al houses, motor road and railway, irrigati on channels, 3955 ha of agrocultural lands fl ooded. Advance warning period 48 hours. Damage equaled Rb 20 million.

April 09-10 and 14-15, 1991: Snow and rain fl ood in the Tedzhen River. Maximum stream fl ow 585 m3/s.1992

May 15, 1992: High rainfall fl ood in the Atrek River. Water level in Kyzyl Atrek increased by 787 cm. Dams and residenti al houses destroyed. May 1015: heavy rainstorms in Kopet Dag piedmonts caused powerful mudrock fl oods. Damage: human casualti es, catt le loss, agricultural land fl ooding. No warning was provided.

April 30 – May 02, 1992: Rain and snow fl oods in Murgab and Tedzhen Rivers. Agricultural lands, railway stati on Takhtabazar fl ooded, dams damaged. Advance warning period 48 hours.

May 15-22, 1992: Rain and snow fl oods in the Amu Darya River. High water occurring once in 20 years was observed from June 25 ti ll July 31.07 with water level exceeding the norm by 30%. Damage: ferryboat passage across the Amu Darya destroyed, dams damaged, 7852 ha under agricultural crops in the fl oodplain fl ooded and washed away.

1993March 24 and April 15, 1993: Rain and snow fl oods in the Murgab River. Water level during fl oods was 2.53.5 ti mes above the norm.

Damage: dams eroded, military airfi eld and 88 ha of agricultural lands fl ooded. Advance warning period 36 hours. Rain and snow fl oods in the Tedzhen River. Stream fl ow 578 m3/s. Damage caused. Advance warning period 36 hours.

Annex 4. Selected Extreme hydrometeorological Hazards: 19762005


86

August 08 and 16, 1993: Mudfl ows in Kopet Dag piedmonts. Damage: railway bed eroded at the Iskander railway stati on. On August 16, 1993 in Kaakhka district along the Loinsu river bed stream fl ow equaled 510 m3/s, as result railway traffi c was terminated, pipeline damaged, and agricultural lands fl ooded. Advance warning period 4 hours.

1994June 12-15 and July 01-16, 1994: High snow fl oods in the Amu Darya River, water level exceeding the norm by 25%. Damage: protecti ve

dams burst, 700 ha of agricultural lands fl ooded, collectors and pumping stati on destroyed. Advance warning period 48-96 hours

December 05, 1994: Daily rainfall in Takhtabazar equaled 62 mm causing high rain fl ood in the Murgab River. Damage: dams eroded, winter crops fl ooded. No warning was provided.

1995February 10, 1995: Heavy rainfall during February 06-10 caused high rain fl oods in the Murgab River and tributaries. Damage: bridges

destroyed, agricultural lands fl ooded, motor roads eroded. No warning was provided.1996

January 15-16, 1996: Severe colds (air temperature -15–20° C) caused ice phenomena such as ice jams and links on the Amu Darya River (Darganata sett lement). Water overfl owed the banks and fl ooded vast area. Damage: areas under crops, motor road and pumping stati on fl ooded. Advance warning period 96 hours.

May 25-26, 1996: Rainfalls along the Loinsu river bed caused powerful mudfl ow fl ooding. Water stream passed through Kaakhka. Damage: 100 residenti al houses damaged, 58 houses completely destroyed, 5 bridges, 5 power transformers, 7 wells, 3.5 km of irrigati on networks damaged, agricultural lands fl ooded. No warning was provided.

1997March 27-28 and April 20-21, 1997: High rain fl oods in the Murgab River and tributaries. Damage: 75 residenti al houses damaged,

agricultural lands and railway stati on in Takhtabazar fl ooded. Advance warning period 3 hours.June 02 and 04, 1997: Powerful mudfl ows and rain fl oods in the Firyuzinka River. Stream fl ow made up 136 and 83.2 m3/s, respecti vely.

Damage caused to Firyiza sett lement. June 04, 1997: Heavy rainstorm (32 mm) in Ashgabat caused mudfl ows from Kopet Dag Ridge slopes. Water reached the city, streets and

basements were fl ooded. July 31, 1997: Mudfl ows in Gyaurs and Kaakhka districts. Areas along the railway at the AnnauGyaurs secti on fl ooded. No warning was

provided.1998

April 06-07, 1998: Heavy rainfalls in Turkmenistan, in Kushka 107 mm within two days, in Takhtabazar 89 mm. High rain fl oods in the Murgab River, on April 07 stream fl ow made up 758 m3/s. In the Tedzhen River (Ata aul) on April 08 esti mated stream fl ow made up 700 m3/s. Damage: bridges and roads damaged, agricultural lands fl ooded. Advance warning period 36 hours.

High snow fl ooding in the Amu Darya River during June-August 1998. Maximum stream fl ow at Kerki observati on site equaled 6250 m3/s, making up 145% of the norm. recurrence – once in 23 years. Damage: agricultural lands fl ooded, dams burst, pontoon bridges destroyed in Kerki and Chardzhou. Warnings were provided.

July 2425, August 05-09 and 14, 1998: Rain fl oods in Sumbar and Atrek Rivers. Signifi cant damage caused: on August 14 in Kara Kal residenti al houses fl ooded over vast territory.

August 05-06, 1998: Mudrock fl ow passed along the Oglandy mudfl ow bed. Dzhebel airport was fl ooded. Advance warning period 36 hours.

1999 June 22, 1999: At the Kara Kal meteorological stati on precipitati on amount made up 96.4 mm within 3 hours 30 min. Powerful rain fl ood

occurred in the Sumbar River and along the Bagandar dry bed. Mudfl ows and slope fl ows fl ooded streets in Kara Kal, telephone communicati on was terminated. No warning was provided.

2000August 08, 2000: Rainfall in Kara Dag piedmonts caused powerful slope fl ow at Ipaikala sett lement on the right bank of the Arvaz River.

Signifi cant damage caused to the forest management unit: seedlings fl ooded over vast area, ageold trees uprooted, catt le loss occurred. Advance warning period 24 hours.

September 11, 2000: Large precipitati on amount in Kara Kal (41 mm). As a result, powerful mudfl ows in Sumbar and Atrek Rivers. Motor road power line destroyed in Kara Kal, agricultural lands fl ooded. In Atrek sett lement, anti fl ood dam destroyed, 37 houses fl ooded, 189 people evacuated in the safe zone. Powerful rain fl ood along the Sekiz Yab River bed with stream fl ow making up 98 m3/s. In Geokdepe water overfl owed the banks, motor road eroded, 100 km of railway bed damaged, railway traffi c terminated. No warning was provided.

2001 Extremely low water level in the Murgab River and tributaries. Mean annual stream fl ow made up 25% of the norm (the lowest fl ow for

the whole period of observati ons).


87

August 11, 2001: Heavy rainstorms in the south-eastern part of Turkmenistan. Precipitati on amount in Atrek equaled 59 mm within a day, in Kyzyl Arvat – 25 mm. This caused high rain fl oods. Powerful fl ood occurred in the Chandyr River (Sumbar River tributary), water overfl owed the banks, 150 residenti al houses were destroyed. On August 12, 2001, powerful rain fl ood occurred in the Atrek River. Water level reached 13.5 m. Damage: dam burst, water overfl ows near Atrek sett lement.

August 25, 2001: Heavy rainfall in Kopet Dag pidmonts caused powerful rain fl ood in the Arvaz River. Damage: motor road destroyed, agricultural lands fl ooded, seedlings in the forest management unit damaged.

2002April 23, 2002: High rain fl oods in the Murgab River and tributaries. Stream fl ow in Takhtabazar equaled 736 m3/s. Such stream fl ow is

observed once in 15 years. Damage: water overfl owed the banks, protecti ve dams burst, agricultural lands and residenti al houses in Takhtabazar fl ooded. Advance warning period 24 hours.

May 04-05, 2002: Rainstorms in Kopet Dag piedmonts caused powerful mudfl ow in the Firyuzinka River. Stream fl ow made up 119 m3/s. Recurrence of stream fl ow – once in 20 years. Signifi cant damage caused to Archanil (Firyuza) sett lement: mudfl ow fl ooded vast area, meteorological site silted for 70 cm (the site was completely rebuilt). Advance warning period 9 hours.

May 05, 2002: Powerful mudfl ows in Kaka etrap. Stream fl ow in the Archilyansu River made up 304 m3/s. Damage: railway bed eroded, vast territory and motor road fl ooded.

June 19 – July 12, 2002: High fl ooding of the Amu Darya River. Stream fl ow at Atamurat equaled 4500 m3/s, which is 40% above the norm. Damage: protecti ve dams burst, agricultural lands fl ooded, pontoon bridge thrown away in Atamurat, passage across the Amu Darya River closed

2003March 28, 2003: Rainfalls in the Murgab River basin and tributaries caused high rain fl oods, stream fl ow in Takhtabazar making up 560

m3/s (recurrence once in 10 years). Damage: water reached the fl oodplain, agricultural lands fl ooded. Advance warning period 48 hours.

April 26, 2003: High rain and snow fl ood in the Amu Darya River. Stream fl ow in Atamurat made up 4-670 m3/s, by several ti mes exceeding the monthly norm for this season.

June 09-13, 2003: Stream fl ow in Atamurat equaled 5400 m3/s making up 168% of the norm. Water reached the fl oodplain, areas under rice and cott on were fl ooded. Advance warning period 48 hours.

June 02, 2003: High rain fl ood in the Sumbar River. Damage: telephone communicati on terminated, power supply cut off , agricultural lands and populated areas in the Sumbar River valley fl ooded. No warning was provided.

2004 July 22, 2004: Local rainstorms (Bereket meteorological stati on – 24 mm within 1 hour 40 minutes) caused mudfl ows from the slopes

of Small Balkhan near Arkach railway stati on with stream fl ow 132 m3/s. Damage: railway bed eroded, motor road damaged. Railway traffi c terminated for 5 hours. No warning was provided.

2005 June 20 – July 11, 2005: Summer high water in the Amu Darya River. On July 02, 2005, stream fl ow in Atamurat equaled 7000 m3/s, which

is 217% of the norm. Damage caused along the whole river bed: 1 class dams busrts, fl oodplain and areas under rice and cott on fl ooded, deigish phenomenon. Advance warning period 96 hours.

August 09-10, 2005: Heavy rainstorms in Kopet Dag (48 mm a day in Kara Kal) resulti ng in high rain fl ood in Sumbar and Atrek Rivers. Floodplain completely fl ooded, hydrological gauges destroyed at Chat and Atrek. Advance warning periods 12 hours in Chat, 36 hours in Atrek.

Source: Turkmenhydromet records and esti mates


88

12:45-13:00 Registration of participants13:00-13:30 Welcome remarks.

Serdar Jepbarov (World Bank), Kakamurad Yaziyev (Turkmenhydromet)

Workshop objectives and agenda.

Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank)

Introduction of participants 13:30 -13:50 hydrometeorological Hazards and their Impacts to Economy of Turkmenistan: Overview, Vulnerability

Assessment

Speaker: Dovran Boltaev (Turkmenhydromet)13:50-14:00 Q&A14:00-14:20 Current Status of Turkmenhydromet system

Speaker: Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank)14:20-14:30 Q&A 14:30-15:00 Needs Assessment of Weather Dependent Sectors: Peculiarities and Similarities of Issues and Priorities

Facilitated by Marina Smetanina, followed by discussion of national sectoral experts15:00-15:30 Q&A, Coffeebreak15:30-16:10 Hydromet Services Modernization Issues:

- What Can be Done to Improve Turkmenhydromet Service Delivery

- Potential Expected Benefits of Hydromet Modernization Options for Major Economic Sectors and Society

- Role of National Hydromet Service in View of Climate Change Projections/Adaptation Needs and Disaster Risk Mitigation

Speaker(s): Anna Wielogorska, Vladimir Tsirkunov (World Bank)16:10-16:20 Q&A16:20-16:35 Quantifying Economic Benefits of Hydromet Modernization in Turkmenistan.

Speaker: Marina Smetanina (World Bank) 16:35-16:40 Q&A16:40-17:10 Bank Experience in Hydromet Modernizations in Turkey, Poland, Russia.

How the Bank May Help in Implementing Turkmenhydromet Modernization options.

Speaker(s): Vladimir Tsirkunov, Anna Wielogorska (World Bank)17:10-17:50 Final Discussion: Workshop Recommendations and Resolution

Chaired by: Kakamurad Yaziyev (Tukmenhydromet), Serdar Jepbarov (World Bank)17:50-18:00 Closing Remarks

Speaker(s): Kakamurad Yaziyev , Vladimir Tsirkunov, Serdar Jepbarov

Annex 5. Agenda and Participants of Consultation Workshop “IMPROVEMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF WEATHHR AND CLI-

MATE SERVICE DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN” (September 30, 2008, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan)

organized by the World Bank

in collaboration with National Hydrometeorology Committee

at the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (Turkmenhydromet)

AGENDA


89

№ Name Organization Position

YAZIYEV, Kakamurat Turkmenhydromet Chairperson of the CommitteeBOLTAEV, Dovran Turkmenhydromet Director of Scientific&Technical Center

“Climate” MAMMETKURBANOV, Kakabay

Turkmenhydromet Head of contracting department

AGALHANOVA, Marina Turkmenhydromet Lead Engineer-hydrologist SPIVAK, Larisa Turkmenhydromet Lead engineer-meteorologist BOGIMOVA, Maria Turkmenhydromet Lead engineer-forecaster NURYEVA, Aknabat Turkmenhydromet Engineer-Hydrologist of 1st category OVESBERDYEVA, Gozel Turkmenhydromet EngineerESENOVA, Bibi

Ministry of Finance of Turkmenistan Main specialist, Department of financial management for industry, transport and communications

TAGANOV, Dzhuma Ministry of Economi and development of Turkmenistan

Head, Department of Transport and Communications

AGANIYAZOV, Rozmurat Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan Colonel, Head, Department of Civil defense and salvage operations

HANMEDOV, Guvanch Ovezovich

Ministry of Water industry of Turkmenistan

Head, Department of water use

NUBERDYEV, Toili Kiyasovich

Ministry of Railway transport of Turkmenistan

Specialist of 1st category, Department of safety transit by rail freightage

ATAEV, Bayram Ministry of Agriculture of Turkmenistan Head, Operational Department EEBERDYEV, Begench Ministry of Nature protection of

Turkmenistan Head, Department for management of coordination of ecological

ALLABERDYEV, Kurban Ministry of Nature protection of Turkmenistan

National specialist of the Project Framework convention on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

AIMAMMEDOV, Rustem Nurmuhammedovich

Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan Major, Head of Ashgabat city branch of civil defense and salvage operations

MUHAMMETNAZAROV, Seyitnazar Muhammetnazarovich

Supreme Council on Science and technology under the President development of Turkmenistan

Chief specialist, Department for forecasting of scientific directions and international relations

KURBANOVA, Fliura Annaevna

State Insurance Organization of Turkmenistan

Head, Department of Insurance and international relations

KULIEVA, Aijeren Institute for Strategic planning and economic development of Turkmenistan

Main specialist

KARYEVA, Sona Muradovna

Institute of desert flora and fauna under the Ministry of Environmental protection of Turkmenistan

Deputy Director

MAMMEDOV, Batyr Institute of desert flora and fauna under the Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan

Lead researcher, Laboratory for forests and pasture lands

GELDYBAEV, Sahetmurat Bagtybaevich Г

Scientific and design Institute “Trkmensuvylymtaslama”

Engineer

GOSHAEV, Geldy Scientific and reseach Institue of crop planting of Agricultural University name after S.A. Niyazov

Director

ATAEV, Alexander Kurbanovich

Research Institute of Seismology of the Ministry of Construction of Turkmenistan

Head, Laboratory for geophysical monitoring


90

№ Name Organization Position

YAZIYEV, Kakamurat Turkmenhydromet Chairperson of the CommitteeBOLTAEV, Dovran Turkmenhydromet Director of Scientific&Technical Center

“Climate” MAMMETKURBANOV, Kakabay

Turkmenhydromet Head of contracting department

AGALHANOVA, Marina Turkmenhydromet Lead Engineer hydrologist SPIVAK, Larisa Turkmenhydromet Lead engineermeteorologist BOGIMOVA, Maria Turkmenhydromet Lead engineerforecaster NURYEVA, Aknabat Turkmenhydromet EngineerHydrologist of 1st category OVESBERDYEVA, Gozel Turkmenhydromet EngineerESENOVA, Bibi

Ministry of Finance of Turkmenistan Main specialist, Department of financial management for industry, transport and communications

TAGANOV, Dzhuma Ministry of Economi and development of Turkmenistan

Head, Department of Transport and Communications

AGANIYAZOV, Rozmurat Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan Colonel, Head, Department of Civil defense and salvage operations

HANMEDOV, Guvanch Ovezovich

Ministry of Water industry of Turkmenistan

Head, Department of water use

NUBERDYEV, Toili Kiyasovich

Ministry of Railway transport of Turkmenistan

Specialist of 1st category, Department of safety transit by rail freightage

ATAEV, Bayram Ministry of Agriculture of Turkmenistan Head, Operational Department EEBERDYEV, Begench Ministry of Nature protection of

Turkmenistan Head, Department for management of coordination of ecological

ALLABERDYEV, Kurban Ministry of Nature protection of Turkmenistan

National specialist of the Project Framework convention on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

AIMAMMEDOV, Rustem Nurmuhammedovich

Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan Major, Head of Ashgabat city branch of civil defense and salvage operations

MUHAMMETNAZAROV, Seyitnazar Muhammetnazarovich

Supreme Council on Science and technology under the President development of Turkmenistan

Chief specialist, Department for forecasting of scientific directions and international relations

KURBANOVA, Fliura Annaevna

State Insurance Organization of Turkmenistan

Head, Department of Insurance and international relations

KULIEVA, Aijeren Institute for Strategic planning and economic development of Turkmenistan

Main specialist

KARYEVA, Sona Muradovna

Institute of desert flora and fauna under the Ministry of Environmental protection of Turkmenistan

Deputy Director

MAMMEDOV, Batyr Institute of desert flora and fauna under the Ministry of Nature Protection of Turkmenistan

Lead researcher, Laboratory for forests and pasture lands

GELDYBAEV, Sahetmurat Bagtybaevich Г

Scientific and design Institute “Trkmensuvylymtaslama”

Engineer

GOSHAEV, Geldy Scientific and reseach Institue of crop planting of Agricultural University name after S.A. Niyazov

Director

ATAEV, Alexander Kurbanovich


Head, Laboratory for geophysical monitoring


91

EFENDIEV, Mikhail Iskenderovich


Lead researcher, Laboratory for geophysical monitoring

ISMAILOV, A.E. Association “Turkmengazakdyrysh” Head, Department of measuring devices and automatic control

DURDYMURADOV, A. Association “Turkmengazakdyrysh” Lead engineer

GURBANSAHHDOV, Rovshan Allagulyevich

Trust “Ahgabatteplo” Chief engineer on heating mains maintenance

YULDASHHVA, Saida Razumovna

State National Service “Turkmenhovayollary”

Lead engineer, Meteorological service department

KURBBANURDYEVA, Enesoltan

Turkmen State University named after Magtymuly

Member of environmental science faculty

ALLAYAROV, D. State electric power corporation “Turkmenenergo”

Head, Central dispatcher control department

Hudaberdyev, B.S. State electric power corporation “Turkmenenergo”

Head, Main Inspection of reliability and technical safety

BUROVA, Valentina State Statistical Committee of Turkmenistan

Main Specialist, Department of Social Statistics

ATAEV, Bayram State Fishery Committee of Turkmenistan Head of Operational Service

BERDYMURADOV, Hakmurat

Department “Turkmendenizderyellarry” Inspector of seaport service

SAPAROV, Merdan Association “Tyrkmenmallary” Chief specialist, Operational Department for animal husbandry and implementation of scientific research achievements

TSIRKUNOV, Vladimir World Bank Task Team Leader, ECSSD

SMETANINA, Marina World Bank Consultant/Program Coordinator

WIELOGORSKA, Anna World Bank Lead Procurement Specialist JEPBAROV, Serdar World Bank Sr. Operations Officer


92

Annex 6. Recommendations of Consultation Workshop “IMPROVEMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF WEATHHR AND CLIMATE

SERVICE DELIVERY IN TURKMENISTAN” (September 30, 2008, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan) organized by the World

Bank in collaboration with National Hydrometeorology Committee at the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan

(Turkmenhydromet)

September 30, 2008 City of Ashkhabad (Turkmenistan)

RECOMMENDATIONS

Following a request from the Government of Turkmenistan, the World Bank has launched a review of prospects of develop-ment of the National hydrometeorological Service of Turkmenistan. The above work has been carried out in cooperation with the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan (hereinafter the Turkmenhydromet).

Objective of the WorkshopDiscussion of preliminary outcomes and development of the recommendations and an action plan to improve the capacity

of the Turkmenhydromet in regard to providing any synoptical and hydrological services and information as well as warning the Government of Turkmenistan, the economic sectors & local residents of any hazardous weather events and natural hazards.

The workshop was preceded by a series of activities carried out by the World Bank experts, specialists of the Turkmenhydrom-et, and employees of the concerned ministries and agencies.

The workshop was attended by:the World Bank staff;managers and specialists of the National Committee for Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan

(Turkmenhydromet);experts from the concerned scientific & research establishments;representatives of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan;representatives and specialists of the sectoral ministries and agencies; andrepresentatives of the other concerned organizations.

Following the discussion of the reports and speeches made by the workshop attendants, the workshop has drawn the conclu-sions as follows:

A review of the prospects of development of the National hydrometeorological Service of Turkmenistan has been made for the first time and shall have an integrated nature including reviewing the following: (1) impacts of any hazardous hydrometeo-rological events on the national economy and local residents, (2) users’ demand for any prognostic products produced by the Turkmenhydromet, (3) current technical conditions of the Turkmenhydromet and any options for its technical and process retrofit-ting and upgrading, (4) economic damage from any natural hazards & hazardous meteorological events and economic benefits from upgrading the Turkmenhydromet to reduce the damage levels, and (5) any toppriority measures for promoting the system of providing the economic sector and population of Turkmenistan with reliable hydrometeorological information and services includ-ing warning of any natural hazards and hazardous hydrometeorological events and any aspects related to the mitigation of risks and adaptation to the climate change;

Upgrading the hydrometeorological Service shall take into account the importance of any information on the current and pre-dicted hydrometeorological conditions in terms of securing the stable Socio-economic development and national safety;

Practically every branch of economy has been directly or indirectly impacted by the hazardous hydrometeorological events and adverse weather conditions. According to some preliminary estimates, the average annual damage from flood and mu flows would be USD 23 million (or above 250 billion manat) in 2006 prices, or 0.22% of the national GDP. The economic losses from impact of high wind on the economic sector and population with no hydrometeorological services provided would make not less than USD 4 million (or 4-6 billion manat), or 0.04% of the national GDP per annum;

Reliable operation of the State system of hydrometeorological observations and forecasting including the provision of reliable & timely information and forecasts to the users shall require providing the hydrometeorological Service with modern metering equipment, using the advanced technologies, and promoting the scientific framework for making observations and forecasts;

The hydrometeorological Service has faced a system-wide problem related to the non-satisfactory technical and process re-source provision due to the budget underfunding. Poor budget funding of the hydrometeorological Service including primarily the lack of capital investment into the procurement of metering equipment has resulted in that over 90% of the major metering equip-ment have been out of date. Also, the hydrometeorological Service has suffered from the shortage of automated technical units, advanced remote technologies, and data-processing devices;

All the above has preconditioned the hydrometeorological Service of Turkmenistan falling well behind the hydrometeorologi-cal services of industrialized countries, which has had an adverse impact on the quality of observations and forecasts, primarily those related to any adverse hydrometeorological events, and on the level of meteorological provision for the aircraft;

The hydrometeorological Service shall require an urgent technical & process upgrading, with the growing requirements from specific branches of economy to the level of hydrometeorological provision taken into account;

The economic effect from improving the hydrometeorological provision to the economic sector and population of Turkmenistan


93

as a result of the above upgrading of the hydrometeorological Service has been assessed using the following methods: (1) meteo-rological risk assessment method, (2) sectoral assessment method, (3) analogue method, & (4) benefit/cost review. An economic appraisal using the above range of methods would be a problem due to the nonavailability of systematic records of any physical & cost losses/damages met by the national economy and population due to the whole range of hazardous hydrometeorological events and adverse weather conditions; and

According to a rough estimate of economic efficiency from implementing the proposed Turkmenhydromet Modernization Pro-gram (with a preliminary estimated value of USD 30 million) using the benchmarking method and the benefit/cost review, an improvement in hydrometeorological provision due to the Program implementation would provide the national economy with a potential additional average annual economic effect in the amount of about USD 18 million in 2006 prices. Supposing that the above average annual economic effect would be gained within 7 years of commissioning and operation of the relevant equip-ment, the total benefits would exceed USD 120 million. Correspondingly, an economic efficiency from investing into the Program implementation would be over 400%, or, in other words, every US dollar used for upgrading the Turkmenhydromet would secure a 4-dollar benefit to the economy due to the damage prevention. The outcomes of reviewing the relevant benefits & costs have also proved a high economic advisability of implementing the above Program. A benefit/cost ratio of 2.7 has been obtained, and a discounted investment return period would be 4 to 5 years.

Turkmenistan could get an even higher actual economic benefit from implementing the Program as the above appraisal has not taken into account some other components of an economic effect from the Program implementation, such as improving the opera-tion of households. Additionally, upgrading the system of forecasting and warning of any hazardous hydrometeorological events would contribute to improving the living standards of local residents, especially within the areas affected by floods and mudflows, to securing the transport safety, especially the safety of aircraft, off-shore hydrocarbons extraction, marine transport & pipeline transport, and to resolving any tasks in the area of environmental safety.

The workshop has put a special emphasis of the following:1. The importance of mobilizing the experts from specific ministries and agencies to identify the users’ demand for hydro-meteorological information and services, which would be valuable both for the Turkmenhydromet itself and for the above agencies. The above work shall include identifying an optimum level of State funding to minimize any economic losses and to identify the most efficient investment categories.2. The workshop attendants have pointed at the current poor technical capacity of the Turkmenhydromet, which has had an adverse impact on the quality of hydrometeorological services and resulted in high economic losses. Also, the workshop attendants have stressed that the above economic losses have been partly due to an insufficient interaction between the Turk-menhydromet and the principal recipients of hydrometeorological information. In view of the above, upgrading the Turkmen-hydromet should be a necessary and timely task.3. The advisability of reviewing the World Bank’s experience in implementing any integrated projects in the area of hydro-meteorology. As agreed upon with the Government of Turkmenistan, attraction of the financial aid from the World Bank to develop and implement the Turkmenhydromet Modernization Program shall be considered.The workshop has recommended the Turkmenhydromet to:• Strengthen the mechanisms for interacting with the users including the development of a feedback system (probably using any new devices and equipment);• Attract the experts from any weather-dependant sectors to contribute to a more detailed review of the major categories of modernization and technical support to the Turkmenhydromet and its branches;• Intensify the cooperation with key branches of economy and housing & communal sector in calculating any economic benefits (including any losses prevented) from using any hydrometeorological information;• Develop the baseline principles and mechanisms for interacting with various user categories in terms of providing any data and products for a value received;• Intensify the attraction of the most weather-dependant branches of economy (fuel & power complex, housing & communal complex etc.) for co-funding of any programs for targeted collection and provision of hydrometeorological information;• Promote the cooperation with specific branches of economy in developing any sectoral methods for calculating an economic effect (economic efficiency) from using any hydrometeorological information & forecasts, and in systematizing the collection of data on economic damages due to specific hydrometeorological events for the national economy in general and for each sector of economy by summarizing any losses from all the hazardous hydrometeorological events and adverse weather conditions; and• Promote the aspects of efficient use of hydrometeorological information in order to secure any supplementary economic benefits for the national economy in general and for specific economic sectors and population of Turkmenistan on the basis of:

- implementing any targeted consulting events involving the representatives of specific users, and- developing the Turkmenhydromet web site to feature any hydrometeorological information including that related to the impact of any adverse weather conditions on various branches of economy and population (guidelines, recommendations, and international experience).


94

NN Activities Option 1 Option 2

Number Cost Number Cost

A Development of Technical design of the

hydrometeorological monitoring and telecommunication

system

940 000 220 000

A.1 Developing the concept of Turkmenhydromet development 70 000 20 000A.2 Technical design of the hydrometeorological monitoring and

telecommunication system and system integration including development of tender documents, performance indicators

870 000 200 000

B Improve the system of hydrometeorological monitoring

to provide timely warnings of extreme and hazardous

weather events and to manage water resources

25 170 000 4 728 000

B.1. Technical upgrading of the observational network 20 020 000 3 928 000

B.1.1 Surface Observational Network 5 100 000 1 900 000

B.1.1.1 Procure and install equipment for the ground-based meteorological network

49 3 900 000 1 900 000

B.1.1.2 Upgrading of data collection and communication station 350 000B.1.1.3 Procure vehicles for remote stations 5 850 000B.1.2 Upper air sounding systems and meteorological radars 9,590,000 948,000

B1.2.1 Procure and install upper air sounding computer systems 5 1,300,000 520,000B1.2.2 Procure and install electrolyzers 5 500,000 200,000B1.2.3 Procure profile recorders 5 940,000 188,000B1.2.4 Procure and install Doppler meteorological radars 2 4,650,z000B.1.2.5 Construct buildings for upper air sounding stations 2,200,000B.1.3 Modernization of Hydrological Network 4,270,000 720,000

B.1.3.1 Modernization of the hydrological observation system 16 1,100,000 6 470,000B.1.3.2 Procure and install mobile hydrological laboratories 2 500,000 1 250,000B.1.3.3 Procure and install equipment to measure oceanographic

parameters 1,700,000B.1.3.4 Procure a ship-borne oceanographic laboratory 970,000 B.1.4 Creation of quality control system for data and hydromet

products

860 000 360,000

B.2 Strengthen the IT base of Turkmenhydromet 5,150,000 800,000

B.2.1 Refurbishment of data collection and telecommunication centers 330,000 260,000B.2.2 Introduction of modern technologies of data processing and

information products 250,000 220,000

B.2.3 Equipment for numerical regional models and data preparation 350,000B.2.4 Procure and install satellite communication stations 120,000 120,000B.2.5 Archive equipment 2,900,000B.2.6 Refurbishment of archive facility 500,000 200,000B.2.7 Adjust the regional numerical weather forecast model for

Turkmenistan 300,000

B.2.8 Adjust the numerical model of the Caspian Sea marine zone 400,000C. Institutional strengthening and capacity building 3,890,000 340 000

C.1.

Strengthen the institutional, legal and regulatory

framework and staff training 1 480,000

200 000

C.1.1.Bring the scientific and methodological framework into compliance with WMO guidelines and recommendations 300,000

C.1.2Draft and enforce guidelines on how to conduct observations, and how to process, store and submit information 400,000

Annex 7. List of Activities and Budget for Modernization Options


95

C.1.3

Draft methodological recommendations on how to conduct observations, including temperature-wind sounding and remote sensing of the atmosphere, with due regard for observational network refurbishment 180,000

C.1.4

Prepare a long-term training/professional development/

retraining and staff motivation program 100 000

C.1.5Procure equipment for the retraining/professional development center for observational unit staff 250,000

C.1.6Develop training aids to study specifications and operation of modern technical facilities 50,000

C.1.7 Training (onsite training, study tours) and logistical support 200,000 200 000C.2 Enhance service delivery 1 230,000 200 000

C.2.1Design and develop a technology to present weather forecast on TV 50,000

50 000

C.2.2 Development and regular support of Turkmenhydromet Web site 80,000

C.2.3

Develop technologies and the Procedures for issuing and disseminating urgent information on the risk or occurrence of natural disasters, and for collecting and transmitting data on disasters 250,000

C.2.4

Implement training activities (seminars, round tables, etc.) for major users of sector-specific information (national and regional public authorities, line ministries, fuel and energy sector, HCS, etc.), including those devoted to the value hydrometeorological information and peculiarities of its interpretation 200,000

50,000

C.2.5Study of user need demands on the national, regional and sectoral levels 200,000

C.2.6Evaluation of economic efficacy of Hydromet service delivery for various sectors 150,000

C.2.7 Improve National Climate Service 300 000 100 000

C.3

Improving the natural disaster and hazardous

hydrometeorological event warning system 1 180 000

40 000

C.3.1 Develop warning procedures at the national and regional levels 10,000 10 000

C.3.2

Develop and enforce the Procedures for issuing and disseminating urgent information on the risk or occurrence of natural disasters, and for collecting and transmitting data on disaster consequences 30,000

30 000

C.3.3Procure a detailed visualization equipment set for the NMHS hydrometeorological Center 300,000

C.3.4Procure an autonomous emergency hydrometeorological support system and introduce meteorological drop kits 790 000

C.3.5Development of data base on negative and hazardous hydrometeorological events 50,000Total 30 000 000 5 388 000

improving weather, climate and hydrological services deliveryin turkmenistan

Documents

climate information

weathhr information

hydrological information

information products

information technologies

hydrometerological information

sources of information

climate hazards