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IMS HEALTH MATERIALS FOR DISCUSSION

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Page 1: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

IMS HEALTH MATERIALS FOR DISCUSSION

Page 2: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Table of Contents •  Executive Summary •  Industry Overview

•  Company Considerations –  Share price performance –  Recent Corporate Actions –  Operating Performance –  Valuation

•  Trade Idea

•  Appendix

Page 3: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Executive Summary •  This presentation explores the strategic and financial considerations for IMS Health, an NYSE-listed healthcare IT

services company to determine the key value drivers of its shares

•  IMS in 2009 agreed to be acquired by private equity firm TPG and the Canada Pension Plan for $4 billion, making it the largest private-equity buyout of 2009. New CEO Ari Bousbib implemented a new aggressive strategy of acquisitions and changed the business model core to Technology

•  This segment has steadily grown in double figures (13%) supported by the acquisitions of cutting-edge

technologies and new hiring

–  Since 2010 has IMS invested more than $ 1.1 bn in capital expenditures, software development and acquisitions

–  60% of todays employees have been hired in the last 5 years

•  In April 2014, IMS was listed on the New York Stock Exchange (IMS Health Holdings, Inc.) following its strategy of expansion and today its market cap is $9.73bn

•  In 2014 IMS acquired Cegedim’s CRM and Strategic Data Businesses placing itself in the TOP 3 of the CRM Market, this move will establish one of the world’s most robust healthcare reference databases with insights on more than

14 million healthcare professionals and increase IMS total addressable market from $45bn to $75bn.

•  Our financial analysis and valuation report a company with a consolidated financial status and a consistent and sustainable growth (7-8%) in the future. Furthermore we conclude that the market is currently

undervaluing IMS representing a buying opportunity for investors

Page 4: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Page 5: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Life Sciences Industry Overview

•  Total Pharma revenues are expected to increase from $1.23 trillion in 2014 to $1.61 trillion in 2018

•  IMS holds 6% of the entire Global Research Market

•  The medical technology market is expected to grow at 4.5 percent (CAGR) per year between 2012 and 2018, reaching global sales of $455 billion.

Global Pharma Revenues, 2009-2018

Global Research Revenue Total ($40.29bn)

Global medical technology sales ($bn), 2005-2018

219 241 267 295 299 316 340 349 357 374 394 414 434 455

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Sales Growth (%)

15%

9%

6%

6%

5%

59%

Nielsen

Kantar

IMS

Ipsos

GfK

Others

Page 6: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

IMS Market Overview •  IMS acquisitions reshaped company’s market

with new offerings and new customers

•  Today IMS is able to reach a broader $75bn Healthcare IT service market

•  IMS has a global presence, 63% of its revenues come from outside the United States

IMS Global Exposure

IMS Total Addressable Market ($75bn)

37%

38%

8%

10%

7% United States

EMEA

Other Americas

Japan

$5

$45

$25

Core Offerings

Expanded Offerings

Expanded Customers

Sales/ Promotional Audits Market Research Consulting

Workflow Analytics RWE Hosted Service Solutions

Cloud Based Analytics SaaS/ Mobile Apps Knowledge Process Out.

Consumer Health/ OTC Medical Devices Payer Provider

Page 7: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

CRM Market Overview

45%

31%

13%

11% VEEVA

Cegedim (IMS)

Oracle (Seible)

Others

Pharma CRM Market

196.1

139.3

120.0

140

225

60

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

CEGEDIM VEEVA ORACLE

CRM REVENUE # OF Sseats

CRM Competitors Revenue and # of Seats

•  The CRM market is dominated by Veeva and

Cegedim (now IMS)

•  Acquiring Cegedim CRM, IMS entered the TOP 3

revenue leaders in the CRM market

•  Former Cegedim’s OneKey is the “most robust’

healthcare reference database. It contains insights

from 13.7 million healthcare professionals

•  IMS acquired the revenue leader of the CRM

market

•  The CRM industry, currently valued at $20.6

billion, will grow to $36.5 billion worldwide by

2017. In 2017, CRM spending will outpace

spending on enterprise resource planning for the

first time

Page 8: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Competitive Landscape

•  Quintiles •  Parexel •  Inventiv Health

•  Veeva •  IBM •  Cognizant

•  Nielsen •  Kantar •  GfK

•  Accenture •  Deloitte •  McKinsey

Consulting Companies

Global Research

Companies

CRO’s IT Healthcare

Page 9: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

COMPANY CONSIDERATIONS

Page 10: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Business Model IMS is a leading global information and technology services company providing clients in the healthcare industry with comprehensive solutions to measure and improve their performance The 2 revenues segments are:

•  19 of TOP 20 Life Sciences companies benefit from IMS Health workflow analytic solutions

•  7 of TOP 10 Life Sciences firms rely on IMS Real World Evidence platforms

•  55+ billion transactions annually

•  10+ petabytes •  90% global pharma

tracked •  800.000 data feeds from

100+ countries

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

I.  Information II.  Technology

Page 11: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

How IMS helps Life Sciences companies R&D Market opportunity assessment Clinical trial feasibility/planning Site selection Patient recruitment Trial monitoring Performance management

Pre Launch Drug pricing optimization Launch readiness Commercial planning Brand positioning Message testing Influence networks Territory Design

Launch Market access Health technology assessment Commercial readiness Forecasting Resource allocation Call planning Stakeholder engagement

In Market Commercial operations Sales force effectiveness Sales force alignment Multi-channel marketing Client relationship management Lifecycle management

Page 12: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Key Company Considerations •  IMS is a fast growing reality

–  In 2010 IMS was a private company with 7.100 employees today they are 10.000

–  60% joined in the past 5 years

•  IMS provides its services to more than 50% of the globe

–  5.000 clients across +100 countries

•  In April 2014, IMS was listed on the New York Stock Exchange (IMS Health Holdings

Inc.)

•  With the acquisition of CEGEDIM, IMS has become the largest healthcare database in

the market

–  more than 500 million patients records

–  14 million healthcare professionals

•  Revenue streams highly geared towards technology

–  From 2010 Technology grew 58% and today represent 43% of IMS’ revenues

Page 13: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Strategic Considerations (i) •  The future of IMS is transitioning to Technology as core business

–  In 2014 Information represented 57% of global revenue $1.5 billion, technology 43% $1.1 billion in 2010 Information revenue was $1.4 billion and Technology $0.7 billion

–  Technology department is steadily growing 13% CAGR 2010-2014

•  Since 2010, IMS is consistently investing on its future –  IMS has invested more than $1.1 billion in capital expenditures, software development and

complementary acquisitions to expand both offerings and capabilities

–  Since 2010 $650 million of capital in 28 acquisitions

•  Cegedim’s Information Solutions and CRM businesses Acquisition will have several positive impacts on IMS’ Business –  It is forecasted that IMS will save $50 million in annual synergies in three years' time –  IMS will address growing demand for end-to-end CRM, multi-channel marketing and master

data management solutions

–  IMS will reach a broader IT healthcare service market of $75 bn

Page 14: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Strategic Considerations (ii) •  IMS is strongly investing in Emerging markets

–  Currently represent 17% of our total revenue ($460 million 2014) and they have grown at about a 12% CAGR since 2010.

–  In 2014 emerging markets grown of 10.8% (China, Russia, India and Brazil) –  High risk market considering regime and internal conflicts

•  IMS’ 63% of revenues are from outside U.S.

•  IMS has a strong client-relationship history

–  TOP 25 clients have over 25 years and retention rate top 100 clients in 2013-2014 was 99%

Page 15: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Financial Company Considerations (i) •  IMS is in a growing trend

–  2014 revenues $ 2.6 bn representing 5.9% year-over-year constant currency growth

•  IMS’ Adjusted Net Income in 2014 was $454 million, an increase of 23.6% at constant currency, the result of higher Adjusted EBITDA and lower interest expense

•  Since 2010, IMS has generated an average of 6% annual revenue growth and 10%

Adjusted EBITDA growth on a constant currency basis

•  In 2014 IMS reported revenue of $2.6 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $878 million,

representing 5.9% and 9.5% year-over-year constant currency growth, respectively. •  Technology Services is likely the basis of these results, delivering 12.3% constant

currency revenue gains year over year •  The company posted net loss of $189 million as it paid $221 million in interest

payments and decreased of nearly $1 billion its debt

Page 16: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Financial Company Considerations (ii)

•  IPO in April 2014 –  New investors bought $1.5 billion worth of company’s stock. –  IMS used $1 billion of proceeds from issuance of new shares to reduce debt and lower our

debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio from 6.1 to 4.3 at year end.

–  The debt reduction and a refinancing of our existing obligations at attractive rates reduced our interest expense by half.

–  Shareholders who invested at the time of the IPO saw a 28% return on their investment through the end of 2014.

Page 17: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Ari Bousbib Era •  Ari Bousbib was appointed as Chief Executive Officer on August 16th 2010

I.  He improved IMS’ operating efficiency by streamlining the organization, deploying lean methodologies throughout global operations, and standardizing and automating processes

A.  in-sourcing development activities and capabilities, 75% of our development resources in-house as of 2014 year end, compared to 30% in 2010

B.  increasing our offshore delivery resources to over 2,500 people as of 2014 year end, compared to 250 in 2010, which has driven substantial productivity improvement;

C.  shifting our employee mix, with over 50% now client-facing as of 2014 year end, compared to approximately 33% in 2010; and

II.  He expanded IMS’ offerings and capabilities by investing over $1.1 billion in 28 complementary acquisitions, internal development projects and capital expenditures since the beginning of 2011 through 2014.

III.  These changes have transformed IMS into a more client-centric, service oriented

company with an high-performance culture

Page 18: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Headline Operational Metrics •  Technology revenues had a two figures

13% CAGR against 2% CAGR of Information, demonstrating the new drive of IMS

•  Asia and Pacific growth are the emerging

markets where IMS is focusing its strategy •  The increase of costs due to an expansion

strategy 13’-14’ led to the falling EBIT

By Division, Growth (3Yrs)

EBIT Growth & Margins (3YRs) Sales Growth $bn (3Yrs)

$0

$1

$2

$3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Technology Service

0

1

2

3

2012 2013 2014

Americas EMEA Asia Pacific

239

354

208

10%

14%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0

100

200

300

400

2012 2013 2014

EBIT ($ms) Margin%

Page 19: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Financial Forecasts (‘15-’19E) EBIT & Margin (‘15-’19)

Profit & Margin (‘15-’19) Sales & Growth (‘15-’19)

2.839 3.046 3.269 3.511

3.763

7.5%

7.3% 7.3% 7.4%

7.2%

7.0% 7.1% 7.2% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6%

0

1

2

3

4

2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Sales Growth (%)

365 421 481 549 621 15.3%

15.9%

16.6% 17.2%

17.8%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

0

200

400

600

800

2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Profit Margin (%)

434 485 542 605 671 15.3%

15.9%

16.6% 17.2%

17.8%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

0

200

400

600

800

2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

EBIT Margin (%)

•  The company is forecasted to grow its sales by 32.5% y-o-y between 2015-2019

•  Cost synergies of CEGEDIM acquisition will see EBIT margin expansion to 17.8% in FY’19

•  This will translate into higher profit margins as capital structure will remain constant.

Page 20: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Key Financial Metrics - Gearing Net Debt / EBITDA

Debt / Equity Current Assets / Current Liabilities

0.9x

2.0x 2.2x 2.5x

2.8x 3.1x

3.5x

2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Current Assets / Current Liabilities

5.5x

2.4x 2.0x 1.6x 1.3x 1.1x 0.9x

2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Net Debt / EBITDA

5.5x

2.4x 2.0x 1.6x 1.3x 1.1x 0.9x

2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Debt / Equity

•  The company overall has been improving its financial metrics over the forecast period

•  In 4 years the company will achieve a consolidated financial position

•  Most likely this is the result of the M&A cost synergies

Page 21: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Share Price Performance vs Competitors (Last 12 Months)

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015

IMS Health Accenture Nielsen Veeva Cognizant IBM Quintiles Parexel

Page 22: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Acquisition History •  Since the beginning of 2011, IMS has invested approximately $650 million of capital in 28 acquisitions. •  IMS’s strategy has been to acquire companies to expand their expertise and broad their market •  This has provided IMS rapid cost savings through synergies and allowed to expand its offering to other markets

offering integrated solutions to its clients

M&A Transaction History over the past 12 months

Announced Date Target Description Revenues Price ($MM)

June 24, 2014 Cegedim’s Information Solution and CRM Business

Healthcare & Pharma CRM 0.9 x ~$420

August 8, 2014 Global Channel Marketing Solutions (GCMS)

Multi-channel marketing services and operations

$31

July 1, 2014 Aileron Solutions Claims-based targeting data

May 8, 2014 Forcea Provider of Business Intelligence and analytics

$11

February 20, 2014 Kent Capital Advisory Firm

2014-1Q NLSN Consumer Health

Consumer Health Business of Nielsen Holdings N.V.

Page 23: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Is IMS’ M&A strategy creating value? •  2015 Revenue growth was driven by

–  1) total company expansion - growth larger on a net basis, –  2) clients getting further saturated with IMS services as IMS built out its revenue ecosystem –  3) clients buying new business lines

•  IMS Health in the second quarter 2015 (first time includes CEGEDIM acquisition)

reports a growth of 24.6% at constant currency

•  After CEGEDIM acquisition IMS Technology core services is continuing growing double-digit

•  There is already a Net income of $47 million compare to a loss of $220 during the same period in 2014

Page 24: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Why Acquiring CEGEDIM CRM Solutions and Strategic Data?

•  OneKey Reference Database, provides insights for 13.7 million healthcare professionals to be used for primary market research, will become part of the IMS Nexxus commercial application suite of SaaS-based sales, measurement and marketing tools.

•  IMS Health anticipates to save annual costs of roughly $50 million in three years following the deal closure –  The present value of synergies could be worth $1.5-$2.0 billion (Seeking Alpha, 27 June 2014)

•  In 2014 the company was holding $730 million in cash and equivalents, making it easy to finance the deal combined with unused borrowing facilities.

•  The company raised little over a billion in the public offering, which will reduce the net debt position following the deal to roughly $4 billion.

•  IMS Health has increased its addressable market from just the $5B pharma data market to now a $75B market which includes data/IT/analytics for the broader healthcare industry

Page 25: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

TRADE IDEA

Page 26: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Valuation Commentary (i)

•  In order to calculate the intrinsic value of IMS stock, I used a 5-year discounted cash flow forecast for the FY14-19E. These projected figures were designed to incorporate assumptions I made about IMS’ future prospects

•  Key assumptions include

–  WACC: 7.3%

–  Long Term growth rate: 2%

–  Tax Rate: 34%

•  Applying different assumptions for

terminal growth and WACC, valuation ranges from 29.94-36.73

WACC 33.1 7.3% 8.3% 9.3% 10.3% 11.3%

Gro

wth

Ra

te (%

) 1.0% 27.36 22.14 18.17 15.07 12.56 1.5% 29.94 23.97 19.53 16.10 13.37 2.0% 33.02 26.10 21.07 17.26 14.27 2.5% 36.73 28.59 22.84 18.57 15.27 3.0% 41.31 31.55 24.89 20.05 16.38 3.5% 47.09 35.13 27.29 21.76 17.64 4.0% 54.63 39.54 30.14 23.73 19.08 4.5% 64.86 45.11 33.59 26.05 20.72

Page 27: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Valuation Commentary (ii) •  Based on forecasts, a five-year discounted cash flow model yields a per

share valuation of $33.10 •  IMS currently trades for $30.15 on the NYSE an implied 10% market discount

compared to fundamental DCF Value •  Using trading multiples we see IMS has a 39% premium to the sector

average LTM P/E multiple •  IMS has a 14% on the sector average LTM EV/EBITDA multiple

•  IMS has a 179% on the sector average LTM EV/EBIT multiple •  My analysis tying with the market commentary (“IMS Health Holdings:

Cegedim Acquisition Completed - A Potential Source Of Upside”, Seeking Alpha, 9/4/15) indicates that IMS is materially undervalued and at the moment represents a buying opportunity

Page 28: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Financial Year (Dec. Year end) 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19 Terminal Period

Total Turnover 2,641 2,839 3,046 3,269 3,511 3,763  

growth (%) 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4% 7.2%  

   

EBIT 208 434 485 542 605 671  

margin (%) 7.9% 15.3% 15.9% 16.6% 17.2% 17.8%  

   

Depreciation & Amortisation 441.0 389.1 398.2 406.2 413.5 420.7  

   

Tax @ 33.5% (69.7) (145.5) (162.6) (181.5) (202.5) (224.7)  

Capital Expenditure 72.0 76.7 82.3 88.3 94.8 101.6  

Capex/Sales (%) -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7%  

   

Change in Working Capital 0.0 247.4 27.9 30.0 32.6 34.0  

Working Capital / Sales (%) 0.0% -8.7% -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% -0.9%  

   

Free Cash Flow 507 849 667 708 753 799 799

   

Discount Factor 0.93 0.87 0.81 0.75 0.70 0.70

   

Terminal Value 15,400

   

Present Value 791.0 579.0 573.3 568.5 562.0 10,831

Enterprise Value (m) 13,905  

Net Debt 3353.0  

Market Capitalisation ($m) 10,552  

No. Shares (m) 319.0  

Share Price ($) 33.1            

Page 29: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Relative Valuation - Trading EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E

Accenture 15.25x 17.45x 21.51x Nielsen 10.44x 15.93x 45.51x GFk 11.94x 33.56x 73.25x Cognizant 20.63x 22.81x 28.51x IBM 7.60x 9.30x 12.78x Quintiles 17.63x 21.24x 26.37x Parexel 16.67x 23.47x 27.99x VeeVa 46.38x 48.99x 84.66x Thomson Reuters 18.47x 18.47x 16.37x Verisk 17.79x 21.63x 32.22x Average 18.28x 23.29x 36.92x Median 17.15x 21.44x 28.25x

  LTM EV/EBITDA

LTM EV/EBIT

LTM P/E

IMS 20.90x 65.31x 51.53x

        Sector Average 18.28x 23.29x 36.92x

Sector Median 17.15x 21.44x 28.25x

Page 30: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Valuation Summary

29

15

29

27.6

30

16

37

34

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

EV/EBITDA - Trading

EV/EBIT - Trading

PE - Trading

DCF

Page 31: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

APPENDIX

Page 32: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Income Statement IMS Health Hist. Hist. Hist Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.

Income Statement 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19 Net Sales 2,443.0 2,544.0 2,641.0 2,839.1 3,046.3 3,268.7 3,510.6 3,763.4 COGS 1,151.0 1,168.0 1,238.0 1,306.0 1,401.3 1,503.6 1,614.9 1,731.1 SG&A 579.0 596.0 721.0 709.8 761.6 817.2 877.6 940.8 Severance, impairment and other charges 48.0 16.0 33.0 Merger costs 2.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT 239.0 354.0 208.0 434.2 485.2 541.8 604.5 670.7

Amortisation 341.7 341.7 341.7 341.7 341.7 Depreciation 424.0 410.0 441.0 47.4 56.5 64.5 71.8 79.0

EBITDA 663.0 764.0 649.0 823.3 883.4 947.9 1,018.1 1,091.4

Other loss (29.0) (74.0) (276.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Income 4.0 4.0 4.0 6.2 10.6 14.9 19.9 25.6 Interest Expense 275.0 332.0 221.0 74.9 74.9 74.9 74.9 74.9 Profit before taxes (61.0) (48.0) (285.0) 365.6 421.0 481.8 549.6 621.5

Taxes (19.0) (130.0) (96.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Profit after tax (42.0) 82.0 (189.0) 365.6 421.0 481.8 549.6 621.5

Net income (42.0) 82.0 (189.0) 365.6 421.0 481.8 549.6 621.5

Shareholder information Diluted weighted average shares outstanding (m) 279.5 287.0 319.0 319.0 319.0 319.0 319.0 319.0 Diluted earnings per share ($0.15) $0.29 ($0.59) $1.15 $1.32 $1.51 $1.72 $1.95 Dividends per share $0.02 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Dividends 4.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Page 33: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Balance Sheet IMS Health Hist. Hist. Hist. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.

Balance Sheet (in millions, except per share data) 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19 Assets Current assets

Cash and cash equivalents 0.0 725.0 390.0 855.9 1,258.2 1,724.0 2,259.0 2,866.6 Restricted cash 0.0 27.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 Accounts receivable, net X 0.0 313.0 330.0 163.2 175.2 188.0 201.9 216.4 Other current assets X 0.0 262.0 270.0 283.9 304.6 326.9 351.1 376.3

Total current assets 0.0 1,327.0 1,014.0 1,327.016 1,762.045 2,262.808 2,835.940 3,483.352

Non-current assets Net PP&E 0.0 117.0 153.0 182.2 208.0 231.8 254.7 277.4 Computer software, net 0.0 263.0 258.0 258.0 258.0 258.0 258.0 258.0 Goodwill 0.0 3,573.0 3,417.0 3,417.0 3,417.0 3,417.0 3,417.0 3,417.0 Other identifiable intangibles, net   2,517.0 2,142.0 2,142.0 2,142.0 2,142.0 2,142.0 2,142.0 Other assets XX   202.0 166.0 283.9 304.6 326.9 351.1 376.3

Total assets 0.0 7,999.0 7,150.0 7,610.1 8,091.7 8,638.4 9,258.7 9,954.0

Liabilities Current liabilities

Short-term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable X   103.0 87.0 91.4 98.1 105.3 113.0 121.2 Accrued and other current liabilities X 0.0 583.0 481.0 567.8 609.3 653.7 702.1 752.7 Current portion of long term-debt 0.0 66.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 Deferred revenues X 0.0 180.0 167.0 170.3 182.8 196.1 210.6 225.8

Total current liabilities 0.0 932.0 785.0 879.6 940.1 1,005.1 1,075.8 1,149.7

Non-current liabilities

Postretirement and postemployment benefits 0.0 77.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 Long-term debt 0.0 4,894.0 3,743.0 3,743.0 3,743.0 3,743.0 3,743.0 3,743.0 Deferred tax liability 0.0 1,102.0 904.0 904.0 904.0 904.0 904.0 904.0 Other liabilities 0.0 111.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0

Total liabilities 0.0 7,116.0 5,608.0 5,702.6 5,763.1 5,828.1 5,898.8 5,972.7

Equity Common stock 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Retained earnings 0.0 913.0 1,975.0 2,340.6 2,761.5 3,243.3 3,792.9 4,414.4 Accumulated deficit   (20.0) (209.0) (209.0) (209.0) (209.0) (209.0) (209.0) Treasury stock 0.0 (6.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) Accumulated other comprehensive loss   (7.0) (217.0) (217.0) (217.0) (217.0) (217.0) (217.0)

Total equity 0.0 883.0 1,542.0 1,907.6 2,328.5 2,810.3 3,359.9 3,981.4 Total Liab.& Equity 0.0 7,999.0 7,150.0 7,610.1 8,091.7 8,638.4 9,258.7 9,954.0

Balance? OK OK OK OK OK OK OK (0.0)

Page 34: IMS Report - Gaspare Mura

Cashflow Statement IMS Health   Hist. Hist. Hist. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.

Cash Flow Statement 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19

Net Income -42.00 82.0 -189.0 365.6 421.0 481.8 549.6 621.5 Depreciation 424.0 410.0 441.0 47.4 56.5 64.5 71.8 79.0 Amortisation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in OWC 247.4 27.9 30.0 32.6 34.0 Change in other assets (117.9) (20.7) (22.2) (24.2) (25.3) Change in other liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash from Operating Activities 542.5 484.6 554.0 629.8 709.2

Capex (44.0) (41.0) (72.0) 76.7 82.3 88.3 94.8 101.6 Cash from Investing Activities -76.7 -82.3 -88.3 -94.8 -101.6

Change in Common Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Treasury Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long Term Debt Repayment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash from Financing Activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Cash Flow 465.9 402.4 465.7 535.0 607.6

Beginning Cash 453 580.0 725.0 390.0 855.9 1258.2 1724.0 2259.0 Ending Cash 580.0 725.0 390.0 855.9 1258.2 1724.0 2259.0 2866.6

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Financial Assumptions IMS Health Hist. Hist. Hist. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Financial Assumptions 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18 31-Dec-19 Income statement

Sales growth % 4.1% 3.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4% 7.2% COGS as % of sales 47.1% 45.9% 46.9% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% Annual depr. as % of previous PPE 31.4% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% SG&A as % of sales 23.7% 23.4% 27.3% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% Non-recurring items amount (29.0) (74.0) (276.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Effective tax rate 31.1% 270.8% 33.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Shareholder info Diluted weighted average shares outstanding (m) 279.5 287.0 319.0 319.0 319.0 319.0 319.0 319.0 Dividend per share growth rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Balance sheet: current assets Accounts receivable % of sales 0.0% 12.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% Other current assets % of sales 0.0% 10.3% 10.2% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

Balance sheet: non-current assets Capital expenditures % of sales 1.8% 1.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% Amortisation of Goodwill 10.0% 341.70 341.70 341.70 341.70 341.70 Other assets % of sales 0.0% 7.9% 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Balance sheet: liabilities Accrued and other current liabilities % of Sales 22.9% 18.2% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% Accounts payable and accruals % of COGS 0.0% 8.8% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Current portion of long term-debt 0.0% 66.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 Deferred revenues as % sales 0.0% 7.1% 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Other long-term liabilities % of sales 0.0% 4.4% 3.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%

Balance sheet: equity Common stock amount 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Share repurchases $ amount (show as positive) 6.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debt (£/$ amount) Loans due for repayment 0.0 4,894.0 3,743.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other long-term debt repayment 0.0 111.0 81.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Interest Rate (%) Short term debt 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Loans due for repayment 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Other long-term debt repayment 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Cash 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%

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