SPEAKERS

Dr Jared Thomas, Research Manager, Behavioural Sciences, Opus

Dr Hamish Mackie, Principal Researcher, Mackie Research, TERNZ

INVITED GUESTS

Wendy Turvey, Opus Research Operations Manager

Dr Vivienne Ivory, Opus Research Principal Urban Scientist

FORUM PARTNERS

Independent Research Association of New Zealand

Dr Rob Whitney, Executive Officer

Royal Society of New ZealandDr Andrew Cleland, CEO Dr Francine Harland, ResearcherDr Marc Rands, Senior Researcher

Science New Zealand

Anthony Scott, Chief Executive

Universities New Zealand

Jonathan Hughes, Deputy Executive Director

Transport in Growing Cities

Smarter thinking and a wider view to overcome New Zealand’s urban transport problems

Dr Jared Thomas, OPUS ResearchDr Hamish Mackie, Mackie Research

Costs for New Zealand Cities

Congestion

Cost of travel

Pollution and Greenhouse gases

Poor health – obesity, heart disease

Erosion of social capital

International competitiveness

Low attractiveness

March madness!

How do we differ internationally?

What do we want from our cities?

Source: www.eiu.com

Putting the “human factor” back into decisions

What do the people want?

How do they use it now?

Who will use it in the future?

If you build it will they come?

Smarter long-term decisions

Generation Y and Public Transport

“We can’t put our riders needs first until we really understand our customers”

opusinternational.com

As our cities grow our PT challenges change

• Operational factors

become easier

• Social factors become

harder

• Transport behaviour

as a social capital

indicator

Social factors in Public Transport – A Singapore Study

Not moving in…Not queuing or letting others alight first… Not giving up seats…

Better information and behaviour change

“The challenge is not technology; the challenge is human behaviour.”

We must be bold to shift from the status quo

But we are not always good at predicting the future…

“Next year, I’m definitely going to eat less and exercise more!*” [*may not actually happen….]

What about trends?

But we are not always good at predicting the future…

A threshold of uncertainty around mobility

Rapid transit

30 to 40 km

Car (mid-1950s)about 60 km

Electric tram10 to 12 km

Walk2 km

Horse-drawn tram4 to 5 km

Historically transport has led urban form

Try before you buy – Smart ways to test future scenarios

1. Better community buy-in2. Greater certainty about hitting the

right level of service3. Identifying not just least regrets…BUT

better opportunities4. Considering the future environment

and the future customer

Better sociotechnical information to make better decisions

We can spatially map rider data

Where do people cycle?

1980 2007

Source: MOT, 2016. http://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Research/Documents/25yrs-of-Travel-Summary.pdf

• 31% of New Zealand children 2-14 years old overweight (21%) or obese (10%).

• Child obesity increased from 8% in 2006/07 to 10% in 2011/12 (similar for 2015/16).

2015/16 New Zealand Health Survey, MOH 2016

• Costs of obesity and inactivity approx $1.3b pa (in NZ)

Obesity and inactivity

People who cycle to work are about 25% less likely to die (of any cause) compared with people who do not cycle to work

Active travel has large benefits

References: Andersen et al 2000, Matthews et al 2007

Environ Health Perspect; DOI:10.1289/ehp.1307250The Societal Costs and Benefits of Commuter Bicycling: Simulating the Effects of Specific Policies Using System Dynamics ModelingAlexandra Macmillan,1 Jennie Connor,2 Karen Witten,3 Robin Kearns,4 David Rees,5 and Alistair Woodward1

The benefits of widespread best practise cycling infrastructure would outweigh the costs by a factor of 10-25 to 1

Source: Stuff.co.nz

Source: bikeauckland.org.nz

Te Ara Mua

Future Streets

Preliminary Concepts

Wednesday

Saturday (market day)

Measuring pedestrian and cyclist movements

Town centre

Windrush park

Mascot

The architecture of decision making

Outcomes

Environment

Practices and standards

Policies

SocietyPeople don’t generally appreciate the link between streets and health

Transport and Health Policies don’t reflect the link between streets and health

Inertia for the status quo is enormous. Change is happening but very slowly

Streets are mostly still designed for cars

Still low levels of cycling and active travel

E-bikes

Source: bikeauckland.org.nz

What sort of cities do we want to live in?