india monthly risk forecast - mitkat · kerala on june 4, expected to cover the entire country by...

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

JUNE 2015

Security forces are continuing with area domination exercises in core forest areas with an aim to flush out Naxal rebels. The launch of Vikas Sangharsh Samiti drew a sharp response from Maoists, who warned of attacks similar to the one carried out in Jiram Ghati if anti-Maoist militia program was restarted.

Naxal Trends

A Smart City should have an inclusive infrastructure for transport, accommodation, trade and commerce, education, water, food and healthcare, knit together by a well laid state-of-the-art IT network. It is imperative to focus on key parameters, essential to the “Right to Live”. They must be designed to be resilient to physical, social and economic challenges, address emergencies (like earthquake, fire and floods) and sociological stresses.

Expert Speak: Resilient Cities = Smart Cities

w 2nd June w 4th June – State Bank branches across India to go on strikew 5th June – Odisha: Private bus operators plan to launch indefinite strikew 6th June – Punjab: Anniversary of Operation Bluestar; bandh in Amritsarw 15th June Jharkhand bandh called by Jharkhand People's Party w 24th June – All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA) to go on strike

– Shab-e-Barat

–

Event Calendar

Bandh called in Amritsar, Punjab, on June 6, to mark the 31st anniversary of Operation Bluestar

Monsoon to arrive in Kerala on June 4, expected to cover the entire country by mid-July

Nagaland ceasefire comes to an end, violence on the upsurge

Heatwave death toll crosses 2,000 across the country, situation may continue till the onset of monsoon

June 2015

Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa

7

14

21

28

5

31

15

22

29

6

1

9

16

23

30

7

2

17

24

1

8

3

11

18

25

2

9

12

19

26

3

10

5

20

27

4

11

6

13108

4

The Month That Was

Mumbai +91 22 4021 1904/05 | Delhi +91 124 4559 221 | Bengaluru +91 80 2550 3300 | Pune +91 9049 001 353 | Singapore +65 9222 5030www.mitkatadvisory.com

Gujjar protesters blocked the Delhi-Mumbai rail route and a key national highway from May 20 to May 28, to press for their demand of a five percent quota to government services within the legal limit of 50 percent in the country. National Highway 11 (NH-11), which connects Jaisalmer to Fatehpur in Rajasthan, was blocked by the protesting groups, while the Delhi-Mumbai rail route and a state highway in Sawaimadhopur district were also blocked. 165 trains were cancelled since the protests began, resulting in heavy losses for the railways, apart from holding up thousands of commuters. The protestors were camped on the railway tracks at Pilupura, near Bharatpur, where they had pitched sheds, and stayed on the tracks in shifts, not having gone home since May 20. The protest was finally called off on May 29, after the government agreed to bring in a new bill that would allow five per cent reservation in state government jobs for the Gujjar community.

The Gujjar community, which forms seven per cent of the total population of Rajasthan, has been protesting since 2006 for a quota in state government jobs along with four other castes — Banjara, Gadariya, Raika, and Gadia Luhar. The government also agreed to table a separate bill for 14 per cent reservation for economically backward classes. With the inclusion of these two new reservation bills, the percentage share of seats for general category will come down to 31 per cent.

Gujjar agitation in Rajasthan paralyses New Delhi – Mumbai road, rail connectivity

Security establishments in Jammu & Kashmir are maintaining a state of high alert as militant outfits continued to target security personnel and installations in a series of attacks throughout May. On May 25, three army personnel were killed in a gunfight with militants in Kashmir's Kupwara district. Earlier in the month, two security personnel were killed in a targeted attack in Anantnag district when militants attacked a CRPF post. Recent intelligence inputs and incidents suggest successful infiltration of the International Border by a number of militants, now hiding in Jammu & Kashmir. Intelligence inputs also pointed to the fact that militant outfits are now being mandated to target the security infrastructure and avoid civilian casualties in order to avoid alienating the local population from the separatist cause.

In recent attacks, militants also targeted communication infrastructure in Kashmir, in order to enforce a communication shutdown in Kashmir valley. Militants attacked a franchise outlet of BSNL, the state-owned telecommunications company, and attempted to destroy a mobile phone tower used by Vodafone, Aircel and Airtel near a police station in Sopore district. Disruption to the communication infrastructure gives the militants a strategic advantage as most intelligence inputs provided to on-ground security forces on possible militant hideouts, are based on tracking of mobile phones in the area. There were also reports of retailers of recharge coupons being threatened to stop recharging mobile phones and selling new connections. This makes such shops vulnerable to targeted attacks, thereby making them avoidable.

Militants continue to target security and communication infrastructure in Jammu & Kashmir

Fire incidents increase with rise in temperatures across the country

Extreme temperatures which are causing deadly heatwaves across the country, are also leading to alarmingly high incidence of fire. A number of fire incidents were witnessed in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in the past month. In the first week of May, 105 incidents of fires, of minor to medium intensity were reported in Delhi. These fires broke out due to a combination of high temperature and dry weather. Major fires broke out in a factory in east Delhi, and an office complex in Connaught Place, which although did not result in any casualties, caused great damage to materials and equipment. In a major incident, two fire officials were killed when a four-storey building collapsed in south Mumbai after a fire broke out, consuming the structure.

Most of the fires reported through May were caused due to electrical short circuits arising out of poorly maintained electrical equipment and connections. Poor housekeeping in factories and offices aids in the spread of these fires. It is thus imperative for all organisations to carry out internal/external assessments of fire and structural safety. Fire safety drills can be conducted regularly, to keep employees abreast of safety procedures to follow in case of an emergency. Top management support to HSSE initiatives, including fire, road safety and emergency response planning, is essential to prevent similar accidents.

The Month That Was


Jayalalithaa sworn in as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu

Jayaram Jayalalithaa was sworn in as the Chief Minister of the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, less than a fortnight after being cleared of corruption charges. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) supremo took office for the fifth time, ending months of political uncertainty and policy paralysis in the South Indian state. The swearing in ceremony was held on May 23 at the Chepauk area of the University of Madras campus. Jayalalithaa was followed by her entire cabinet of 28 ministers. All ministers of her previous cabinet except MSM Anandan and Chenthur Pandian were brought back. A few BJP leaders, including Pon Radhakrishnan and L Ganesan, put in a token appearance.

Although the AIADMK government holds tremendous sway in the state, the result of the next elections will be dependent on the alliances that will emerge at that time. Jayalalithaa's future and AIADMK's prospects in the 2016 assembly elections will probably not depend on her relationship with other parties like the BJP. Also, she will probably not dissolve the assembly in a hurry, as she needs time to smooth out issues in the state. Several government projects have come to a standstill during her absence from active politics.

Sikh radicals have called for a bandh in Amritsar on June 6, in remembrance of the victims of Operation Bluestar that was undertaken by the Indian Army in 1984. Parades have also been planned across Punjab by Sikh outfits on June 5. The army operation to flush out militants from the Golden Temple in Amritsar left behind a scar so deep and raw that even 30 years later the slightest scratch threatens to reopen old wounds of people traumatized by commandos overrunning their place of worship with machine guns, rockets and battle tanks. The spread of militancy and the demand for Khalistan had forced the army to initiate the operation against Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale and his armed group which was operating from the precincts of the Golden Temple. They were among those killed in the assault launched on June 5.

The operation angered the Sikhs, triggered a mutiny in some army units and led, four months later, to the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by two of her Sikh bodyguards on October 31. Her death sparked off anti-Sikh riots in which marauding mobs reportedly murdered over 8,000 persons of the community, including 3,000 in Delhi alone. This fuelled another round of militancy and insurgency in Punjab until the passage of time, holding of elections and the people's desire to give peace a chance restored some degree of normalcy.

In recent years, some violent incidents have been reported on the anniversary of the operation, with considerable security presence being deployed in and around the Golden Temple in 2013, amidst fears of a face-off between rival factions of Damdami Taksal, a radical Sikh seminary. There is still some anti-government sentiment in the eyes of the public who were directly affected by the aftermath of the operation. There have been numerous calls for the government to disclose all the facts preceding the operation and to identify the primary decision makers. This year, although there is no definitive threat of violent outbreaks this time around, it will be prudent to steer clear of Amritsar and surrounding area on June 6.

Bandh called in Amritsar, Punjab, on June 6, to mark the 31st anniversary of Operation Bluestar

Monsoon to arrive in Kerala on June 4, expected to cover the entire country by mid-July

According to weather experts, monsoon rains are expected to hit Kerala on June 4, West Bengal, Gujarat and Maharashtra on June 10, and the northern parts of the country, including Delhi, by mid-July. Contrary to the earlier forecasts by the Indian Meteorological Department, this would be 'timely' arrival of the monsoon, meaning that El Nino (a weather phenomenon which disrupts cloud formation) may not have a significant impact on June rains.

The approaching monsoon can disrupt day-to-day operations in cities across India, causing water-logging on city roads due to heavy rains and choked drains. In coastal cities like Mumbai, a combination of high tides and rains can also cause extreme flooding in the city. Organisations operating in Mumbai, New Delhi, Kolkata and coastal cities and in the flood prone regions of states like Uttarakhand, Bihar, Assam etc must revisit their business resilience and disaster management plans. Monitoring of meteorological news and advisories would aid in efficient planning.

Forecast for June


The death toll in the heatwave sweeping India has passed 2,000, with temperatures nearing 50 degree Celsius in some areas. Most deaths have taken place in the Southern states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, where at least 1,800 people have died since last week. Reports say at least 24 people have died from the heat in West Bengal and Orissa. Sporadic rains cooled Jharkhand to a certain extent, while both Rajasthan and Gujarat continue to experience temperatures above 43°C. The temperature is likely to fall by the first week of June, however the meteorological department issued 'red box' warnings for Odisha, Jharkhand and coastal Andhra Pradesh, signalling high chances of heatstroke, dehydration and fatality with temperatures inching upwards of 45°C and conditions worsened by constant dry, sweltering winds.

The onset of monsoon, expected to reach Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the worst-affected region, by June 10 may offer some relief from the continuing heat. However, it will be several weeks before the rains finally reach the torrid Northern states. The dry conditions might even result in some of the states plunging into a drought, before the monsoon rains reach there.

Hundreds of people, mainly from the poorest sections of society, die at the height of summer every year across the country. Industry also suffers loss of production due to power cuts from an overburdened electricity grid. India's power industry has long struggled to meet rapidly rising demand in Asia's third largest economy, with poorly maintained transmission lines and overloaded grids.

Organizations should monitor temperature and data forecasts; when temperature reaches 40 degrees centigrade for plains and 30 degrees centigrade for hills, precautions must be enforced. Some of the measures to prevent heat-stroke and dehydration of employees are – drinking adequate cold water; if working in open, taking a break during peak afternoon hours and resting in the shade; placing a wet cloth on the head to cool off. In the prevailing conditions, dust storms and thunderstorms are also common during which it is advised to stay indoors. If out on the road, it is preferable to find shelter against trees and poles which may fall causing a safety hazard.

Heatwave death toll crosses 2,000 across the country, situation may continue till the onset of monsoon

Forecast for June


Forecast for June


On March 27, a ceasefire between Nagaland government and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang), signed in 2001, came to an end, triggering a familiar cycle of crackdown and reprisal. Eight security personnel were killed and six others injured in an ambush by suspected National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Khaplang (NSCN-K) militants in Mon district of Nagaland on 3rd May 2015. The first vehicle was blown up using an IED and the second came under heavy fire from militants positioned on an uphill vantage point which resulted in the casualties. This was the second attack after the one on 2nd April, where three army personnel were killed and three others wounded when NSCN (K) ambushed a convoy in Tirap district in Arunachal Pradesh. Naga ethnic nationalism intensified in the 1980s, when the NSCN was formed, drawing a section of Myanmarese Nagas into its fold. The insurgency found its focus in the demand for “Greater Nagaland” or “Nagalim”, an imagined homeland that would engulf Naga-dominated regions in surrounding states and contiguous areas in Myanmar. Driven by clan rivalries, the NSCN split in 1988, into the Khaplang and Isak-Muivah factions. In 1997, the NSCN(IM) signed a ceasefire with the government and has been in closed door talks ever since. Careful not to upset the dialogue with the NSCN(IM), the government barely engaged with the rival faction, except for renewing the ceasefire every year. It proved to be a costly omission. Marginalised in India, the NSCN(K), based out of Myanmar, has drawn closer to Naypyidaw, signing a ceasefire with its army in 2012. As hostilities waned, the Naga faction agreed not to support rebel groups targeting the Myanmar army and is even allowed to run a government-in-exile, styled as the Government of the People's Republic of Nagaland-NSCN(K). In recent years, reports have spoken of a consolidation of separatist outfits from the Northeast, some of which have found refuge in Myanmar.

Separatist groups of the Northeast have typically been volatile and constantly splintering, and the government's approach must factor in the variegated nature of these movements. The government's policy of signing ceasefires with various militant factions and waiting out the insurgency seems to have reached its limits. Most crucially, in this case, India must reach out to Myanmar and formulate a coordinated mechanism to deal with separatist and terror groups, on the lines of the 2013 agreement with Dhaka. These are questions and decisions the ceasefire had postponed. The government can no longer put them off.

Nagaland ceasefire comes to an end, violence on the upsurge

Afghanistan

Government instigating formation of militias, and calling on warlords to battle TalibanA fierce Taliban offensive across a Northern Afghanistan corridor, has forced Kabul to adopt a risky counter-measure strategy in the region: forming militias and seeking military assistance from old warlords. The effort is expected to eventually mobilise several thousand Afghans from the north, to fight the Taliban in places where the Afghan security forces either do not have a strong foothold, or are completely absent.

International observers are sceptical about this move, as drawing a reference from history, it was initially the countless local warlords who tore up Afghanistan in the first place, in the 1980s. Most of those old warlords now occupy key government and provincial positions, and are campaigning actively for re-raising the militias.

The establishment of the 2-3 million strong Afghan military and security forces has been lauded by many as one of the US-led ISAF's principal achievements in the country. Even with no NATO support this time, the Afghan security forces have largely fought the Taliban elements with a marginal success rate. However, the Afghans are taking casualties at an alarming rate, with almost 1800 government personnel killed in the past four months.

The militia plans suggest diminished confidence in the capacity and capability of the Afghan security forces. Local mujahideen leaders, who were previously disarmed, have been approached by President Ghani's government to assist in counter-insurgency measures across the country. Most of these local mujahideen leaders have previous experience of battling the Russians and the Taliban, and each one commands close to 2000 men in his own respective area of influence.

The Afghan National Security Council is currently debating oversight mechanisms to implement this plan in a structured format. One of the key points has been to eventually induct these militias into the Afghan security infrastructure. Many senior government officials accept the fact that use of force outside the discretion of the legal framework is a bad message to send out. However, they also believe that this move is the necessary and lesser of the two evils at the moment.

Pakistan

Polio threat in Balochistan results in WHO travel restriction to PakistanThe International Health Regulations Emergency Committee, which has been advising the director general of the WHO on efforts to stop the spread of polio virus across the planet, has extended travel restrictions imposed on Pakistan for three months. In a meeting last month, the committee said that even though the number of polio cases reported in Pakistan was declining, the country posed considerable risk vis-a-vis spread of the disease across the world.

51 union councils in Balochistan have been declared to be at a 'high risk' for polio virus by the Balochistan Polio Emergency Cell. Environmental samples of polio virus had already been found in the Quetta and Killa Abdullah districts of the province. So far, three polio cases have been reported from Balochistan, this year. Noting considerable progress made by countries issued with temporary recommendations by the WHO, the committee only extended the travel restriction in Pakistan by three months, unlike the six month bans it handed out earlier. The committee noted that this year Afghanistan and Pakistan reported less than half the number of cases reported last year, no export of disease had taken place in the past six months, and the number of children missing their inoculations had considerably declined.

However, 21 of the 22 cases reported this year, or 95% in the world, were reported from Pakistan.

Neighbourhood Scan


Sexual assault incident highlights poor state of women safety in the country The sexual assault incident on the eve of the Pahela Baishakh celebrations last month on the Dhaka University campus has become a political football in Dhaka. Although the police has released photographs of the suspects, no tangible leads so far have been achieved. The Bangladesh Chhatra Union (BCU), the biggest apolitical student body in the country has launched a country wide campaign to petition for improved safety for women in Bangladesh. The police's initial lacklustre performance in accepting the occurrence of the incident, and the subsequent clash with the BCU protestors has left a bad impression on the public. The ambiguous silence of all major political parties on the incident, and its subsequent handling is also coming under the limelight now, with the general population feeling marginalised as their basic human rights are not being ensured by the authorities. Incidents of rape and sexual abuse continue to occur across the country, with law enforcement apparently not doing enough in terms of proactive prevention.

Zia's graft cases carried forward to next monthKhaleda Zia's court hearing for her involvement in the two graft cases against the Zia Orphanage and Zia Charitable Trust have been adjourned to June 18. The cases have been active for almost seven years now, with no foreseeable breakthrough, while Zia was granted bail on both the charges last month. The adjournment has been awarded on the basis of a technicality wherein Zia's defence was denied an expunging petition for all the court proceedings which occurred in Zia's absence, during the time of Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) extended country-wide blockade earlier in the year. Following this, the defence asked for additional time to cross-examine the plaintiff for both the cases.

Zia is accused of embezzling $650,000 in two corruption cases involving charitable funds during her last term as Prime Minister, from 2001 to 2006. If proven guilty, she and other party ministers named in the lawsuits can be jailed for life. The BNP has declared the charges as politically motivated, and has since been fighting the case out, against Bangladesh's Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC). Zia is also involved in another corruption case, where the BNP government in power awarded a coal mine contract to a Chinese company, allegedly causing massive losses to the state exchequer.

Bangladesh

Neighbourhood Scan


Government rechristens Victory Day as Remembrance Day, to work towards reconciliationThe new government has announced that May 19 will no longer be stylised as Victory Day. Instead, it has been renamed 'Remembrance Day', in the memory of all the people who died in the long drawn civil war. For the past five years, the date was marked as a day of triumph and victory achieved by the security forces over terrorism. However, from this year onwards, the day is to be observed as a recollection of the sacrifices made by all those who fought to maintain the unity and integrity of the country, irrespective of their ethnicity, as per the comment made by the government.

International observers, human rights organisation sceptical of Sri Lanka's pledge to investigate war crimesHuman Rights Watch recently criticised the promotion of a senior military officer, whose division was implicated in serious human rights abuses during the final stages of war against Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) terrorists, as the Army Chief of Staff and cast doubts on the government's pledge to credibly investigate war crimes. Terming it a 'slap in the face' for the victims, the Human Rights Watch (HRW) said that the appointment of Major General Jagath Dias is further proof that Sri Lanka needs an independent justice process with a strong international component that can undertake impartial investigations and prosecutions.

Drawing a reference from President Sirisena's election promise, which included a just and fair inquiry into wartime abuses to be carried out by the new government, various international observers note that although positive steps have been taken to end the Rajapaksa government's repressive governance style, the new administration is yet to make meaningful moves towards addressing those abuses.

Sri Lanka

Myanmar

Migrant crisis in the region puts focus on MyanmarThe migrant crisis at sea in South East Asia is allegedly one of the worst mass exodus-gone-wrong incidents in recent times. A massive human trafficking ring, operated out of Thailand's Southern coast-side forests, was discovered by the Thai authorities earlier in the year after graves of trafficking victims were uncovered at various sites. This exposed the vast nexus of traffickers and victims from Bangladesh in the west to Malaysia and Indonesia in the east. To avoid prosecution, most traffickers abandoned shiploads of human victims , primarily hailing from Bangladesh and the Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar. Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia all initially refused to accept refugees, and towed away the boats entering their harbours. This led to an international outcry of human rights abuse, led by the UN, the US and the European nations. Washington sent diplomats to meet the South East Asian governments to work out a possible fix for this issue. After an initial meeting, Malaysia, Indonesia and even the US agreed to offer refugee to some of the victims, while pressurising the remaining involved states to also assist the endeavour. Myanmar, initially angered by the problem which it considers to be Bangladesh's headache (since the Rohingya Muslims are historically believed to have migrated from Bangladesh to Myanmar), later agreed to allow drifters to land on its shores to receive daily supplies and medical assistance, but clarified that only people who are able to prove their nationality will be allowed to stay back. Thailand and Australia have outright rejected any plans of granting refugee status to the drifters.

To bring about an amicable resolution for the crisis, a regional conference was scheduled in Bangkok yesterday which included the members from Association of South-East Asian Nations ( and representatives from the UN and US. The talks also had representatives from 17 countries affected by irregular migration in the Indian Ocean including Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. Officials from the UN refugee agency, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime and the International Organization for Migration were also present in the conference. Through the conference Asian countries have agreed to work together to try to stem the region's migrant crisis. The participating countries have agreed to:ŸIntensify search and rescue operation to ensure migrants' safetyŸEstablish a joint task force to assist countries dealing with migrantsŸTo create affordable and safe channels for migration

Indonesia and Malaysia would provide temporary shelter for migrants, provided they would be resettled or repatriated by the international community. In addition, the US and Australia pledged $3 million and $3.8 million towards humanitarian assistance respectively. The participating countries also said they would address the root causes of irregular migration.

ASEAN)

Neighbourhood Scan


Nepal

Nepal grappling with post earthquake, rehabilitation and resettlementPost earthquake rehabilitation and resettlement activities in Nepal are moving at an obtuse speed, adding on to the misery of the survivors across the affected region. Apart from social unrest, and dearth of basic living space, the dwindling supplies and the overburdened medical facilities are taking a huge toll on the general population. The most immediate concerns are controlling the spread of contagious infections, which usually follow any natural disaster, and providing for sturdy makeshift residential spaces for the people before the arrival of the heavy monsoon, by the end of this month.

Since most of the medical facilities were either destroyed or rendered useless by the earthquakes, makeshift clinics have sprung up at all focal points of the affected areas. However, the medical teams are overwhelmed due to the sheer number of patients, and are still dealing with injuries and first response ailments. Thus, not enough attention has been given to the threat of endemic diseases which may cause an outbreak due to an already failing infrastructure, and poor medical facilities. Cholera and typhoid are both endemic in Nepal, and the dearth of decent and sanitary waste disposal facilities at the moment, make the affected areas highly susceptible to both these diseases. The medical facilities present on ground at the moment do not have the capability to deal with a mass inoculation project, and will definitely not be able to deal with an outbreak.

Another pressing issue is the looming threat of the oncoming monsoons, which are expected to arrive in Nepal by this month end. Heavy rains are characteristic of the 2-3 month long monsoons, and are usually followed by landslides. The instability of the terrain at present increases this threat a thousandfold. Although most of the affected population near the urban areas of Kathmandu and surrounding have moved into more firmer residences, people towards the outskirts are still living out of tents, which will not offer adequate protection once the heavy rains start. The government is trying to procure sturdier, long term tented structures for the population.

Post earthquake displacement of populations results in increased human trafficking Thousands of young women from regions devastated by the earthquake in Nepal are being targeted by human traffickers, supplying a network of brothels across South Asia. At times of such crisis, the girls are even more vulnerable to be persuaded by the traffickers into coming with them, lured by promises of safety and security. On-ground sources confirm that few instances have come up, where criminal networks were using the cover of rescue operations to target poor rural communities.

Even children below the age of 10 are being trafficked to slave markets to be sold as domestic help in countries like India, Myanmar, and China. A compilation of recent police reports indicate an almost 12-15 percent increase in the number of children believed to have been lured or abducted by traffickers in the past month.

Border security forces, in both Nepal as well as in India have been placed on a high alert to diligently check for all movement of people between the extremely porous borders of the two countries.

Neighbourhood Scan


Spotlight - China


China outlines ambitious military policyBeijing has declared that it plans to extend its global military reach to safeguard its economic interests, while defending its territorial claims at sea against 'provocative actions' by neighbours and 'meddling' by the United States. A policy document, recently issued by the Chinese State Council has underlined the dramatic growth of the country's defence ambitions, especially its naval ambitions, in tandem with its rapid economic rise. Beijing insists that its military is dedicated to international security cooperation, and peaceful deployment. However, it also said that its navy will expand its focus from 'offshore waters defence' to a greater emphasis on 'open seas protection', as China aims to establish itself as a maritime power. The air force, meanwhile, will shift its focus from 'territorial air defence to both defence and offence.

China's officially disclosed defence budget for the year was expanded by over 10 percent this year, marking close to two decades of nearly unbroken double digit growth. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is currently building a second aircraft carrier, and has invested heavily in submarines and warships.

The Chinese military is mainly focussed on readying for possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait, but is also investing to prepare for 'contingencies' in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, where it is engaged in several territorial disputes.

China signs $80 bn worth of deals with India, Russia and Latin AmericaChina has wrapped up at least $80 billion of deals, including agreements signed with jet makers, solar cell manufacturers and film studios, during recent visits by its leaders to Russia and Latin America plus a visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China. Agreements also covered currency arrangements, infrastructure and cooperation in fields such as health and information security. With India, Beijing has signed 26 business deals, including tie-ups between Bharti Airtel and the China Development Bank, the Adani Power Group and the Golden Concord Group, and Eros Group and the China Film Group. The deals total to a cumulative $22 bn across port industries to renewable energy to financing. With Russia, likewise, China has instated 32 business agreements, totalling to approximately $25 bn in infrastructure contracts, financing programmes, and cooperation in informational security. Beijing has also roped in several Latin American countries to enhance business cooperation, majorly Chile ($3.60 bn), Peru, Colombia, Brazil ($27 bn), and Belarus ($1.13 bn).

Increase in crackdown in restive Muslim regionBeijing recently commented that it has foiled 181 terror plots since it started a crackdown a year ago on Islamic separatists in the North-western region of Xinjiang that was prompted by a surge of violence that reached as far as Beijing. It is, however, unclear what scale of terror organisation is reflected in the tally, because authorities have given neither extensive details on the plots nor a clear definition of what they would include. Xinjiang is largely closed to foreign journalists and substantial information about security in the region is difficult or impossible to collect and verify. There are reportedly a 112 suspects who have surrendered in this time frame, however, there are no records for the number of casualties sustained in this offensive, suggesting summary executions might have occurred as a result of the crackdown.

Resilient Cities = Smart Cities

Expert Speak


The term “Smart City” in an era of rapid urbanisation has become immensely fashionable in the policy arena. However, the interpretation remains quite vague, varying from being a digital city, swanky roads and metros rails, down to developing a Knowledge Park within an existing city. Very few ideas have evoked as much global interest and support as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's intention to create 100 new “Smart Cities” in India, a country which houses one in every six human beings on the planet.

While the Smart City concept has varied dimensions and facets, it is imperative to focus on key parameters, essential to the “Right to Live” which is as much a birth right, if not more. A Smart City ideally should have an inclusive infrastructure for transport, accommodation, trade and commerce, education, water, food and healthcare, knit together by a well laid state-of-the-art IT network. This should aim to act as an autobahn for integrating each and every aspect that is relevant to and touches human life. Besides adequate employment opportunities, a Smart City must offer a safe and secure environment to its inhabitants. Integration of all these parameters would ensure sustainability and enable every business enterprise to become self-sufficient. Smart Cities should focus on managing complexity, increasing efficiency, reducing expenses and improving quality of life. Complex ICT networks geared to provide savings in time and energy and provide higher reliability would be in place.

-Parag Agarwal

Expert Speak


A Smart City is a combination of smart economy, smart mobility, smart people, smart living, smart governance, smart environment and smart money. In such cities, technologies make the disparate strands of everyday life sync with each other. Network of ultra-sensitive, low-power sensors, wireless networks and mobile-based applications, intelligently interpret and trigger responses to provide a seamlessly better quality of living experience. Seamless transacting using cash free methods like plastic money, e-wallets and e-money will be the order of the day.

The new government's intent to build 100 new cities is a massive opportunity for it to showcase its vision, capability and commitment. It seems like the “Right to Live” that every Indian citizen has traditionally been deprived of and yearned for may finally be a reality. However, lack of planning and/or incompetent or lax implementation of a plan may lead to an indefinite delay in realizing the dream. The inclusion of each of the aspects is critical to fulfill the ever-evolving needs, lifestyle and aspirations of an Indian citizen, especially the new generation that is entrusted with the task of leading India towards 2050.

It is heartening to see that the role of professionals and subject matter experts in preparing this urban blue print and road map has clearly been understood. However, these professionals must have in-depth understanding of the dynamics of local geo-political and social context, without which they may lose track and relevance. Developing redundancy of information and disaster management plans that include Emergency and Response measures is an indispensable aspect of creating Smart Cities.

Special focus has to be laid on building Safe Drinking Water dispensing points supported by sanitation and suitable water infrastructure, adopting better food storage techniques to preserve quality and nutrition, energy management, development of integrated multi-modal safe and secure transport infrastructure, structural, fire and life safety and prevention and mitigation against natural and man-made disasters. Above all, adopting a customized approach to physical and electronic security after understanding the Threat, Vulnerability and Risk associated with every district/region is most essential.Our Smart Cities must be designed to be resilient to physical, social and economic challenges, address emergencies (like earthquake, fire and floods) and stresses (unemployment, inefficient transport, road rage and violence, food and water shortages and waste disposal). The city must be able to respond to adverse events and overall be able to deliver basic amenities & services in good and as well as bad times to all citizens.

Parag Agarwal, Executive Director, MitKat Advisory Services : An entrepreneur with rich global exposure and distinct understanding of cutting-edge technologies, Parag Agarwal is a leading expert on “smart city and urban planning”. He is an acknowledged thought leader, speaker and author.

Naxal Tracker - May

2015


May events and incidents

Naxals or Maoists are militant far-left radical Communist groups operating in India. Inspired by the doctrines of Mao Zedong, they work to overthrow the government and upper classes by violence. They are considered as a terrorist organization under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of India (1967).

Naxalites activities have spread to about 82 districts across 10 states, though some are very moderately affected. Maoist incidents have accounted for almost 60 per cent of terrorism-related violence in India over the last decade. These include intimidation, killings of innocent civilians, reprisal killings, abductions and kidnappings, IED blasts and the destruction of government and private property. In many of the areas of their influence, the Maoists have been collecting taxes and dispensing instant and brutal justice through kangaroo courts.

ŸMay 1st – Maharashtra: Maoists killed two villagers suspecting them to be police informers in Gadchiroli district

ŸMay 1st – Chhattisgarh: A hardcore CPI-Maoist was killed while another arrested in an encounter between Maoists and Police in forests of Kondagaon district

ŸMay 3rd – Jharkhand: Cadres of CPI-Maoist blew up a bridge and set ablaze two houses in a village in Hazaribagh district

ŸMay 4th – Chhattisgarh: Two persons brutally hacked to death by CPI-Maoist cadres in Sukma district

ŸMay 4th – Chhattisgarh: Salwa Judum founder's son and former leaders of the anti-Maoist militia formed 'Vikas Sangharsh Samiti' in Dantewada district

ŸMay 4th – Chhattisgarh: CPI-Maoist calls for boycott of Narendra Modi's Chhattisgarh visit

ŸMay 4th – Odisha: An exchange of fire took place between SFs and CPI-Maoist cadres in Kandhamal district

ŸMay 5th – Chhattisgarh: Cadres of CPI-Maoist triggered four back to back explosions in Bijapur district

ŸMay 5th – Odisha: An IED suspected to be planted by CPI-Maoist cadres exploded Malkangiri district

ŸMay 5th – Andhra Pradesh: Police arrested 11 members of Communist Party of India Janashakti faction in Kurnool district

ŸMay 5th – Jharkhand: A couple allegedly involved in illegal trade and supply of explosives to CPI-Maoist was killed in an accidental explosion in Hazaribagh district

ŸMay 6th – Jharkhand: A CoBRA personnel sustained injuries in an encounter between security personnel and Maoists in Khunti district

ŸMay 7th – Jharkhand: Police recovered a large cache of explosives from a godown in Ranchi districtŸMay 9th – Chhattisgarh: CPI-Maoist cadres killed one person and released 300 others held hostage in Sukma districtŸMay 9th – Maharashtra: Maharashtra ATS arrested a top CPI-Maoist leader in Pune districtŸMay 10th – Bihar: CPRF and District Police recovered explosives from a CPI-Maoist hideout in Jamui district

MitKat Recommendations: Organisations operating in Maoist infested areas must carry out active liaison for intelligence inputs and harden their security adequately to safeguard their people, assets and operations. Professional advice should be sought from security consultants with a successful track record of operating in dangerous and challenging territories.

Naxal Tracker - May

2015


ŸMay 13th – Jharkhand: Heavily armed CPI-Maoist cadres attacked a coalfield office killing a person and injuring several others in Latehar district

ŸMay 13th – Chhattisgarh: A tiffin bomb, planted by the cadres of the CPI-Maoist to target security personnel was recovered in Kondagaon district

ŸMay 17th – Chhattisgarh: Three policemen and two CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter in Bijapur districtŸMay 17th – Bihar: A woman CPI-Maoist cadre was killed and another was injured in an encounter with the Police in Gaya districtŸMay 17th – Bihar: The Maoists engineered IED blasts and fired at CRPF personnel engaged in anti-Maoist operations in Gaya

districtŸMay 20th – Jharkhand: Armed Maoist cadres set ablaze two trucks, one JCB, one road roller and a tractor deployed for a road

construction work in Garhwa districtŸMay 21st – Chhattisgarh: Six vehicles, engaged in the doubling of railway tracks were set ablaze by CPI-Maoist cadres in

Dantewada districtŸMay 24th – Chhattisgarh: The CPI-Maoist cadres shot at and seriously injured a couple with suspected links with Salwa Judum in

Sukma districtŸMay 24-25 - Bihar: 32 trucks were set ablaze, reportedly by CPI-Maoist cadres, on the busy Grand Trunk Road in Gaya district.

The incident occurred during a two-day bandh call by the Maoists in the regionŸMay 27th – Chhattisgarh: Four security personnel were injured when Naxals attacked a police camp in Narayanpur district

Naxal TrendsIn what appears to be a continuation of the tactical counter offensive launched by Maoists, incidents of security personnel being targeted in Maoist attacks continued across Chhattisgarh throughout May. On May 17, two rebels and two security personnel were killed when a group of rebels attacked a patrol party in Bijapur district. On May 27, a group of Naxals opened fire on a police camp injuring four security personnel in Narayanpur district. Security forces are continuing with area domination exercises in core forest areas with an aim to reduce Naxals’ area of operation.

The controversial anti-Naxal movement, Salwa Judum which was declared illegal and ordered to be disbanded seemed to sprout a new life when the late Congress leader Mahendra Karma’s son, Chhavindar Karma announced a new movement called the “Vikas Sangharsh Samiti”. Salwa Judum was a program started by the Congress leader, that recruited local tribal population to counter the Maoist threat. The movement quickly turned into one that committed gross human rights violations throughout Chhattisgarh drawing the ire of Maoist groups. The leaders who founded the movement, were brutally killed in a deadly Maoist ambush near Jiram Ghati which resulted in 27 deaths including the entire top leadership of Congress party in the state in May 2013.

The launch of Vikas Sangharsh Samiti drew a sharp response from Maoists, who warned of attacks similar to the one carried out in Jiram Ghati if anti-Maoist militia restarted its violent and atrocious acts against the tribal community. Maoists abducted 300 villagers in alleged retaliation to the launch of the movement.

Earlier in the month, Dantewada district, the hotbed of Naxal activities in Chhattisgarh, was visited by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was on a day long visit to the area. The PM addressed a public rally in Dantewada and urged the public to join the government in its development plans. The PM also signed MoUs to set up an ultra-mega steel plant in Dilimili village. The visit by the PM sent out a strong message in response to the threat posed by Naxals to internal security in the ‘Red Belt’.

Geo-Political Risk

Management


The interdependence of geo-politics and business interests creates opportunities and risks for business. A wide array of political, socio-economic, societal, legal/regulatory and environmental risks impact businesses of all sizes and complexities, to varying degrees.

Geopolitical risk assessment allows business owners to track and analyze current global and local events/ trends, and to comprehend the business risks and opportunities that they present to their business.

Geo-political risk management allows business leaders to de-risk and grow their businesses by comprehending these risks; and evolving and implementing resilient business strategies to mitigate their impact .

Geo-Political Risk ManagementŸ India Risk ReviewŸ South Asia & Country Risk ReviewŸ Daily India Risk TrackerŸ Weekly and Monthly Risk Round-up and ForecastsŸ Periodic and event risk advisoriesŸ Travel risk managementŸ Emerging markets entry supportŸ On-demand research and risk-assessmentŸ Geography and industry-specific reviewsŸ 24x7 Control Centre and assistanceŸ Business Risk Analysis and Reconnaissance

Making Business Sense in a Connected World...

MitKat is India’s fastest growing premium risk management consultancy. Our services include:

india monthly risk forecast - mitkat · kerala on june 4, expected to cover the entire country by...

Documents