India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 1

INDIA RISK TRACKER

21 JUNE 2018

INDIA SNAPSHOT

MAHARASHTRA Intermittent showers in Mumbai bring

dengue, malaria

MAHARASHTRA Raju Shetti to kick off protest march of

farmers on 29 June

TELANGANA State BJP unit to hit the roads from 23

June for Jana Chaithanya Yatra

TAMIL NADU

Tension prevails in the state as dissent

over Chennai-Salem greenfield highway

escalates

NATIONAL IMD warnings across the states; rains to

revive from 24 June

NATIONAL International Yoga day celebrations across

India today (21 June)

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT

BANGLADESH Fenchuganj flood situation worsens;

30,000 marooned

BANGLADESH

Five injured as Awami League and Jubo

League men clash in Savar yesterday (20

June)

NEPAL IED deactivated in Dhankuta yesterday

(20 June)

SRI LANKA

Private bus strike and Postal strike cause

communication and transport issues in

Sri Lanka

PAKISTAN

ECP calls for 350k-strong troop

deployment for General Elections on 25

July

VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW VERY LOW

Maharashtra: Intermittent showers in Mumbai bring dengue, malaria With intermittent rain, dengue and malaria cases have started trickling in the hospital outpatient departments and clinics. Hospital admissions too have started swelling over the last fortnight. At Santacruz’s Surya Children Hospital, a seven-month-old infant is among four children who have tested positive for the mosquito-borne viral infection this month. Three of the four children have required hospitalisation, though all have been successfully treated.

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 2

ANALYSIS: Dengue wreaked havoc in Mumbai lasting year claiming 17 lives, highest in a span of five years, and affecting over 13,000 people. Till May, the BMC has recorded around 38 confirmed dengue cases and nearly 900 suspected cases. Physician Dr Pratit Samdani, who has admitted three patients for dengue this week at various south Mumbai hospitals, said that cases have started coming since the past ten days. From the beginning of this year till May, there have been only ten confirmed leptospirosis cases, the figures for June are being compiled currently. The BMC’s insecticide department said that despite campaigns, there has been little public participation in curbing mosquito breeding. The showers combined with humidity is extremely conducive for mosquito breeding. People must ensure that water doesn’t stagnate for seven days. RECOMMENDATION:

Vector-borne infection can be more serious this season due to a stronger strain of virus and the immunity is lower due to change in weather. Take necessary precautions.

The larva of aides mosquito grow in clean water, usually found in flower pots, open overhead tanks, small quantity rain water accumulated in waste tyres, utensils, broken pots etc. There is no specific treatment for dengue fever and most people recover within two weeks. The most effective way of preventing dengue fever is by taking precautions to avoid being bitten by mosquitoes.

Use commercially available mosquito repellents, aerosols, and mosquito coils to repel mosquitoes.

Cover water containers in the house to prevent egg laying by mosquitoes.

Change water in air coolers regularly. The overhead water tanks should also be cleaned from time to time.

Prevent accumulation of stagnant water in surrounding areas, which are a breeding space for mosquitoes. To help with recovery, general measures include: Getting plenty of bed rest. Drinking lots of fluids. Taking medicine to reduce fever. Avoid aspirin but paracetamol is considered safe.

For severe dengue symptoms including shock and coma, hospitalisation and aggressive emergency treatment with fluid and electrolyte replacement may be necessary to save lives.

Back to Top

Maharashtra: Raju Shetti to kick off protest march of farmers on 29 June Lok Sabha member and chief of the Shetkari Swabhiman Sangha-tana (SSS), Raju Shetti, will kick-off a protest march from 29 June to demand that sugar mills pay farmers’ pending dues. Mr Shetti’s other demand is that government provide a subsidy of Rs 5 per litre to cow milk producers. The MP from Hatkanangle said that earlier the sugar mills were facing problems as sugar rates in the market had dropped far below Rs 2,000 per quintal. But now the rates have gone up and sugar mills won’t have any problems. If the mills don’t pay by June 30, the cooperative commissioner should take action against them, he demanded.

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 3

IMPACT ANALYSIS:

The location of the march is not yet to be announced. However it is likely to cause localised traffic disruption around the protest area. Maintain vigil mainly around government installments in Pune. Back to Top

Telangana: State BJP unit to hit the roads from 23 June for Jana Chaithanya Yatra With the Centre considering the proposal to hold simultaneous polls for Lok Sabha and State Assemblies, BJP State unit has decided to mingle with people extensively by launching its Jana Chaithanya Yatra (rally) on 23 June from Yadadri.

The first phase of Yatra (rally) will continue till 06 July, covering at least 25 Assembly segments.

The party leadership has planned to organise 20 public meetings during the Yatra in various districts.

The Yatra will be taken up in four phases, touching all 119 Assembly segments. Various Union ministers and BJP national leaders will be taking part in it, during the four phases.

BJP national president Amit Shah, whose visit to the State has been postponed several times till now, is likely to come in the second week of July.

For now, his visit to the State is tentatively scheduled to be held on 12 July or 13 July.

During his visit, Shah will review the party situation by holding meetings with booth level committees to State level leaders.

In 2010, Reddy and others had staged a protest near the State BJP 0ffice demanding that the government reimburse fee of BC, SC and ST students. At that time, police detained Kishan Reddy and others and registered cases. Based on SC directions, a special fast track court was set up at Nampally court premises to deal with cases related MLAs and MPs.

IMPACT ANALYSIS:

Statewide traffic disruption will be expected during the yatra (march) that will traverse across Telangana, mainly during public meetings and assemblies. Plan trip accordingly. Situational awareness should be maintained at all times. Cater for large crowd presence. Traffic diversions could be put in place Back to Top

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 4

Tamil Nadu: Tension prevails in the state as dissent over Chennai-Salem greenfield highway escalates Tamil Nadu Vivasaigal Sangam (TNVS) state secretary P Shanmugam yesterday condemned the detention of farmers and TNVS functionaries in Tiruvannamalai, who were on the way to attend an indoor meeting to discuss the pros and cons of the Chennai-Salem greenfield highway. He said that tension prevails in the state. BACKGROUND: Sangam’s district president T K Venkatesan, vice-president S Balaraman and 20 others were detained by police ahead of the meeting. Shanmugam said detaining farmers who were going to take part in an indoor meeting was nothing but murder of democracy. Venkatesan and Balaraman were detained by police when they went to make arrangements for the indoor meeting at a mill in Mangalam police station limits in the district around 9.30am. Police also arrested around 20 farmers who had come from different parts of Tiruvannamalai and Dharmapuri districts. 26 organisations — from farmers associations to fringe parties — have formed a joint action committee (JAC) under the banner of Ettuvazhi Salai Ethiruppu Kuttaiamppu. However, every time there is a hint of any stir brewing against the project, the police are quick to ensure the meeting is broken up, a few people detained, and protests have been quelled. According to reports, the government has put the police on alert in Salem, Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Tiruvannamalai, Kancheepuram and Chennai districts districts.

IMPACT ANALYSIS: The farmers’ association has decided to lay siege to the Tiruvannamalai district police office demanding the immediate release of the detained people. Following the detention of over 20 people, members of the farmers’ association – which is affiliated to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) -- shifted the meeting to the CPM office. Nearly 300 farmers from Salem, Dharmapuri, Kancheepuram and Tiruvannamalai districts took part in it. All India Kishan Mahasabha’s deputy secretary Vijoo Krishnan and former MLA P Dillibabu also participated in it

RECOMMENDATION: High security measures can be anticipated at Salem, Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri,

Tiruvannamalai, Kancheepuram and Chennai districts in Tamil Nadu. Farmers plan to lay siege to the Tiruvannamalai district police office (190 kms

from Chennai) in Tamil Nadu. Advised to exercise caution. Protests by farmers can be anticipated Tamil Nadu especially in the above

mentioned districts. Advised to maintain situational awareness. Further momentum can be anticipated due to sensitivity of the issue and since

DMK has extended support. Monitor local news portals to stay updated of ground situation.

Back to Top

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 5

National: IMD warnings across the states; rains to revive from 24 June According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast: For today (21 June):

Heavy rain at a few places with very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Konkan & Goa; heavy to very heavy rain at Isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka and heavy rain at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Marathwada, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.

Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds and lightning very likely at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema and Tamilnadu & Puducherry.

For tomorrow (22 June): Heavy to very heavy

rain at Isolated places very likely over Assam & Meghalaya and Konkan & Goa; heavy rain very likely at isolated places over SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.

According to reports, The southwest monsoon is most likely to advance to remaining parts of

Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha ahead of making its further northward progress starting 24 June.

IMPACT ANALYSIS: Advised to stay cautious and take necessary precautions to protect against heavy

rainfall and thunderstorm. Especially in the coastal region as heavy rainfall is predicted.

Loss of lives and large-scale damage to property has been reported. Cater for a power outage in case of heavy rainfall. Advised to be vigilant. Traffic congestions are likely in case of heavy rains. Advised to stay updated on

the ground situation. RECOMMENDATION:

Monitor updates by IMD regularly and plan schedules accordingly. Website link for monitoring regular updates: imd.gov.in

Contact emergency disaster management helpline number 108 / natural disaster helpline number 1077, in case of any emergency.

Follow all the precautions the weather department and the administration. Keep emergency lights and mobile phones (and backup battery) charged. Cater for the likelihood of train, road, and air traffic to be affected if heavy

rainfall continues. Check live updates for train/flight schedules if travel is within the region. Keep time at hand if travelling on the roads, as heavy traffic congestions are

likely due to inclement weather conditions. Avoid walking on flooded roads as it is risky. Inform your family about your whereabouts. If stuck in your car and if it is automatic then open its glasses before shutting it

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 6

down. Keep the supply of food and water stocked. Keep power backup options ready, stock adequate quantities of candles and

matchsticks if required. As a precautionary measure, emergency numbers should be saved on the speed-

dial list and kept in full display in the house. Back to Top

National : International Yoga day celebrations across India today (21 June) According to reports, with International Yoga Day is to be celebrated today (21 June), following arrangements are put in place.

CITY EVENT IMPACT

New Delhi

According to the New Delhi Municipal Council (NDMC), roughly 15,000 people have registered for the 4th International Day of Yoga (IDY) event at Rajpath.

The event is scheduled to be held on the ceremonial boulevard at dawn.

The NDMC will also be organising similar events at Lodhi Garden, Nehru Park and Talkatora Garden.

The yoga event at Rajpath will be attended by Union Minister Harsh Vardhan, Delhi L-G Anil Baijal, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and New Delhi MP Meenakshi Lekhi.

In Delhi, eight events have been planned in the national capital with the main celebration being held in the Connaught Place.

Elaborate security arrangements have been put in place for the International Yoga Day celebration at Rajpath.

More than 500 police and paramilitary personnel have been deployed to keep an eye on suspicious elements.

The Delhi Traffic Police has issued an advisory asking motorists to avoid Rafi Marg, Janpath, Man Singh Road, Maulana Azad Road, Rajpath (between Vijay Cheok and Man Singh crossing), Krishna Menon Marg, K Kam Raj Marg and Rajender Prasad Road till 10 am.

The advisory asked

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 7

motorists to take alternate routes -- Ring Road, Mathura Road, Bhairon Marg, Subarmaniyam Bharti Marg, Rajesh Pilot Marg, Dr Abdul Kalam Road, Tuglak Road, Mother Teresa Crescent Marg to travel from south to north and vice-versa, and from east to west and vice-versa.

Mumbai Vice President Venkaiah

Naidu is to lead the Yoga Day programme at Bandra Reclamation Sealink Promenade in the city.

Union HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar will also take part in similar events at two places in the city. Further, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis will also be present on the occasion.

Elaborate security arrangements have been put in place.

Heavy crowd presence can be expected.

Traffic diversions likely near event locations.

Hyderabad The celebrations will be held in

Raj Bhavan with the participation of Governor ESL Narasimhan.

A mass yoga demonstration is to be held at Gachibowli stadium.

Cater for heavy security near Raj bhavan.

Chennai The event is organized in the

Chennai Corporation park on Lazarus Church Road at Mylapore.

At Anna Nagar, Tower Park, Shenoy Nagar Corporation Park, Bull Park, Kambar Colony Park will also see yoga sessions.

Chennai Metro Rail Limited

Cater for heavy crowd presence near event locations.

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 8

(CMRL) will be conducting yoga camps at eight stations from 21 to 24 June as part of the International Yoga Day. Morning sessions will be held at Alandur, Saidapet, Vadapalani and Thirumangalam stations from 6am to 8.30am. Evening sessions will be held at Egmore, AG-DMS, Anna Nagar Tower and Shenoy Nagar from 6pm and 8.30pm.

Bengaluru The traffic police in the city has

issued an advisory for the 4th International Yoga Day which is to be held today morning (21 June) in Bengaluru.

The event will be held at the Kanteerava Outdoor Stadium from 6am to 8:30am.

Traffic around the stadium is expected to be slow.

Parking has been banned in Kasturba Road (from Hudson Circle to Siddalingaiah Circle), Vittal Mallya Road, Mallya Hospital Road and RRMR Road.

ANALYSIS: The United Nations declared 21 June as the International Day of Yoga in 2014. The event was first celebrated in India at Rajpath in 2015 and was convened by the Prime Minister, who performed yoga along with over 37,000 people. RECOMMENDATION:

Due diligence should be taken if travel is planned within the region. Advised to follow the local traffic advisories to stay updated regarding on the

ground situation. Monitor local news media and be in touch with your colleagues at host

location for updates. Be prepared for delays and plan your commute accordingly. Advised to stay updated on any road blockades and plan commute

accordingly. Back to Top

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT

Bangladesh : Fenchuganj flood situation worsens; 30,000 marooned

The flood situation in Fenchuganj upazila of the Sylhet district deteriorated further,

leaving 30,000 people of 25 villages in five unions marooned. The Kushiara River was

flowing 118 cm above the danger level at Fenchuganj Bazar yesterday (20 June). At least

30,000 people of Bhoraut, Guchchhagram, Moinpur, Barhal Nurpur's Bilaigenji,

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 9

Ghilachhara UP's Judistipur, Uttar Kushiara UP's Kotalpur, UttarTilla, Ilashpur Purbo

Kandi, Uttar Fenchuganj's Surikandi, Sailkandi, Goyasi, Manikona Bandarpara and

Gongapur remained stranded in floodwater.

RECOMMENDATION: Follow all the precautions the weather department and the administration.

Cater for the likelihood of train, road and air traffic to be affected if heavy rainfall

continues.

Check live updates for train/flight schedules if travel is within the region.

Keep time at hand if travelling on the roads, as heavy traffic congestions are likely

due to inclement weather conditions.

Contact helpline numbers in case of an emergency.

Back to Top

Bangladesh : Five injured as Awami League and Jubo League men clash in

Savar yesterday (20 June)

Five people were injured in a clash between the activists of Awami League and Jubo

League over a trifling matter at village Kaliakoir in Savar, on the outskirts of Dhaka

yesterday (20 June). At one stage, both groups attacked each other around 12:00

am, leaving five people injured. On information, police to the spot and brought the

situation under control.

IMPACT ANALYSIS: While travelling through Savar area of Dhaka, travel is likely to be delayed due to the

political clash that took place. Additional security measures are also likely to be in

place.

RECOMMENDATION: Due to the clash in Savar, it is advised to maintain situational awareness in

Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Advised to monitor announcements by local law enforcement authorities and

abide by all instructions.

Monitor local news portals and advisories to stay updated.

Back to Top

Nepal : IED deactivated in Dhankuta yesterday (20 June)

A bomb disposal team of Nepal Army deactivated an Improvised Explosive Device (IED)

planted targeting the office of Kanchanjangha Construction Company at Pakhribas,

Dhankuta. The IED was kept in a Red Bull can and planted on 19 June. Police suspect

that the Nepal Communist Party led by Biplav might have planted the bomb as the party

had issued a press release warning of taking action against the company within 15 days,

accusing the company of negligence in the construction of Pakhribas-Leguwa road.

RECOMMENDATION:

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 10

Cater for increased security in Dhading district in Nepal due to recent incidents.

Cater for increased travel time due to traffic congestion that should be anticipated.

Advised to stay updated on any road blockades / traffic diversions and plan

accordingly.

Monitor ground situation for further updates.

If you find yourself at the scene of an IED attack

Get out of the area in case a secondary device is set off. This will also minimize

exposure to dust, smoke and hazardous substances.

If you are in a building, get under a sturdy table or desk if objects are falling around

you.

Leave as quickly as possible, without stopping to get personal belongings or make

phone calls.

Use stairs instead of elevators.

Stay away from windows, glass doors and other potentially hazardous areas.

If you become trapped, cover your nose and mouth to limit inhalation of hazardous

materials, and signal your location to first aid officials with a light or by tapping on a

nearby object.

If you have been at the site of an IED attack but don’t have any immediate injuries,

stay vigilant in the weeks and months afterwards, as some health effects such as eye

injuries, abdominal damage and psychological effects can take longer to appear.

Back to Top

Sri Lanka : Private bus strike and Postal strike cause communication and

transport issues in Sri Lanka

Postal Strike: The postal workers warned that there is a risk that the airmail services

might be collapsed as a result of the ongoing strike action. The freight and postal

services from Oman to Sri Lanka have been suspended. The postal strike began 10 days

ago, and now the postal workers have launched a continuous sit-in protest in front of

the Central Mail Exchange, Colombo yesterday (20 June). Meanwhile, Postmaster

General, Rohana Abeyrathna stated that he is prepared to carry out talks if the workers

call off the strike and return for duty. However, the standoff continues as the Joint

Postal Trade Union Front’s convener Chinthaka Bandara stated that his union is not

ready to call off the strike and discuss the issue if authorities are not willing to meet

their demands.

Bus Strike: All private bus operators on the Southern Expressway and the Matara-

Colombo route are engaged in a strike from yesterday (20 June). They said the strike was

launched in protest over an incident of a private bus driver being assaulted in

Ambalangoda on 19 June, and the arbitrary actions of the Chairman of National

Transport Commission. The bus operators warned that they will resort to an indefinite

strike if their demands are not met by today (21 June).

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 11

RECOMMENDATION: Use alternate modes of transportation, since private buses might not ply

on Panadura-Colombo and Moratuwa-Colombo routes in Sri Lanka today.

Inconvenience can be anticipated as the postal system have been disrupted.

There may be a delay in postal services, advised using an alternate mode of

communication.

A sit-in protest has been planned by postal employees in front of the Central Mail

Exchange in Colombo, Sri Lanka today (21 June). Advised to stay away from protest

venue to avoid incidental risks.

Monitor developments closely to stay updated on the ground situation.

Back to Top

Pakistan : ECP calls for 350k-strong troop deployment for General Elections

on 25 July The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has requested the deployment of 350,000

soldiers for the upcoming general election 2018, scheduled to be held on 25 July. The

electoral body has forwarded a summary to the Ministry of Defence for the

deployment of troops in a bid to maintain law and order during the polling.

The army would be deployed at Security Printing Press from 27 June to 25 July.

CCTV cameras would be installed at 20,000 sensitive polling stations in the

country.

Provincial governments would also provide security to district returning officers,

returning officers, and presiding officers.

At least 7,000 personnel, including Rangers and Frontier Constabulary and

Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir police, will guard polling stations in Islamabad during

the elections.

According to reports, 6,502 policemen will guard 773 polling stations with nine

personnel to be deployed at 24 high sensitive polling stations each.

There are 87 sensitive polling stations in the capital where 609 personnel will be

deployed. On an average seven officials would provide security to each polling

station.

Candidacy so far:

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), party president and former Punjab chief

minister Shehbaz Sharif’s nomination papers for NA-132 (Lahore), NA-249

(Karachi), NA-250 (Karachi) and NA-3 (Swat) were accepted by the RO.

PML-N leader Maryam Nawaz’s candidacy for PP-173 has also been approved.

PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s nomination papers for NA-131 (Lahore) and NA-243

(Karachi) were accepted.

PML-N leaders Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Sardar Mehtab Abbasi, along with Ayesha

Gulalai, who had been affiliated with the PTI in the past, suffered a setback in NA-

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 12

53.

RECOMMENDATION:

Cater for increased security checks and travel disruptions in Pakistan due to the

upcoming rallies by all major political parties.

Rallies have been planned in all major cities across the country. Travel disruption

is likely due to this.

Stay away from large congregations to avoid incidental risks.

Consult the local traffic police advisory for possible route changes.

Cater for high security measures in Pakistan from 27 June onwards. Follow all

instructions by the authorities.

Follow the local developments closely to stay updated on the situation.

Back to Top

India Risk Tracker™ 21st June 2018 Page 13

©2018 All rights reserved. The information contained herein is the Intellectual Property of MitKat

Advisory Services Pvt. Ltd. Any unauthorized use of this content, in any form, violates our rights.

_____________________

Warm Regards,

Information Services Team

MitKat Advisory Services Pvt. Ltd.

www.mitkatadvisory.com

Follow Us On

Our Services:

Information Services | Security Consulting and Design | Cyber Security and Resilience

Workforce Development | Women Empowerment

Integrity Risk Management | Managed Services

DISCLAIMER:

The contents of this E-mail (including the contents of the enclosure/(s) or attachment/(s) if any) are

privileged and confidential material of MitKat Advisory Services Pvt. Ltd. and should not be disclosed to,

used by or copied in any manner by anyone other than the intended addressee/(s). If this E-mail (including

the enclosure/(s) or attachment/(s) if any) has been received in error, please advise the sender

immediately and delete it from your system.