Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

Abhisek Chatterjee

Earth System Sciences Organisation (ESSO)

Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS)

Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India

HYDERABAD

VIth Annual Meeting of GOADE OceanView Science Team, Sydney 2-6th Nov 2015

Ocean State Forecast- The Users

Integrated INDian Ocean FOrecasting System (INDOFOS)

ROMS General circulation parameters Indian Ocean

Regional Coastal High resolution – WC and SEA

Every 6 hour for 7 days

Operational

Spectral Wave models

Wave/Swell paremetrs/High wave Alert

Regional, Coastal and Location specific

Every 3 hour for 7 days

Operational

WAVEWATCH-III (Single grid)

Wave/Swell paremters Global Every 6 hour for 5 days

Semi-operational

WAVEWATCH III (Multi grid)

Wave/Swell paremters

Global and Regional

Every 6 hour for 5 days

experimental

GNOME Oil spill trajecory Location specific 3 hours Operational

Forecast Generation: Models

INCOIS has been providing Operational forecasts of the general circulation

features of the Indian Ocean from early 2010 onwards.

Initially the spatial resolution of the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS)

was 0.25o x 0.25o and later it was enhanced to 0.125o x 0.125o. Now the

horizontal resolution is increased to 1/12o x 1/12o

High-resolution Operational Ocean Forecast and reanalysis System (HOOFS)

Currently ESSO-INCOIS is implementing a series of very fine resolution (~ 2.25 x 2.25 km) coastal ocean forecast system for the entire coastal waters of the country. The set-ups are forced by the Operational atmospheric prediction system from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF), New Delhi. Tidal boundary conditions are provided from the OSU Tidal Prediction software (OTPS).

Forecasting variables: Currents, Temperature, Salinity, D20, MLD, Sea Surface Height

Validation of the simulations by the SEA-HOOFS with the observations

l Kochi

l Colombo

l October 2011

Simulation of barotropic tidal currents- comparison between

model simulation and ADCP observation

Shelf off Goa

Slope off Mumbai

Courtesy: MP Subeesh, NIO

Wave Forecast

Location specific wave forecast

Wave forecast for Nellore (East coast of India)

The OSF service is provided to fishermen (free of cost)across the country. Purpose of usage of OSF is to decide on whether or not to venture for fishing, casting their nets, anchoring their

High Wave Alert/Warning and benefit to Fishermen Multi-lingual Warnings during HUDHUD cyclone

Ocean State Forecast along Ship Routes: Evaluation Using ESSO-INCOIS

Real-Time Ship-Mounted Wave Height Meter and Satellite Observations

OSF WHM

‘OSF along Ship-routes ‘ VS ‘Wave Height Meter’

• Validation of Altimeter data using WHM shows a good match. Hence, • Further evaluation of OSF using altimeter shows a good match with average r > 0.85 with a SI < 20%. (Harikumar et al., 2015, JAOT)

‘OSF along Ship-routes ‘ VS ‘Altimeter’

R & D

Wave map service

Cyclone Hudhud October 2014

Last DWR observation

The Online Oil Spill Advisory (OOSA) version 2.0 was inaugurated by Director, INCOIS on 09.04.2015 at 20th NOSDCP meeting organised by Indian coast Guard, held in Goa. This version gives the high resolution trajectory prediction for the west coast and also gives the trajectory prediction for continuous and instantaneous spills

Oil Spill trajectory prediction for west coast of india with high resolution currents

Search and Rescue

Triangular area boundary

Advisory valid Period: 3 days

Search and Rescue activities (from 11-18 June, 2015)

for the missing Indian Coast Guard aircraft off

Karaikal, southeast coast of India, by assisting the

Indian Coast Guard search and rescue team with

a specialised in house developed SARAT (Search

and Rescue Aid Tool)" module/system - which helps

in locating lost persons and objects in the sea, based

on the last known position details.

Probability Scale

Feedback from Commander Coast Guard for support and cooperation given by INCOIS during Search and Rescue operations for missed Coast Guard Dornier CG 791.

Harmonic constituents (source) : National Institute of Oceanography, Goa

INCOIS tide prediction stations

INDIA

INCOIS

COUNTRY STATIONS

INDIA 136

MYANMAR 12

SRI LANKA 11

BANGLADESH 9

CHAGOS 5

PAKISTAN 4

MALDIVES 1

TOTAL 178

INCOIS has recently provided alerts for

perigean spring tide flooding

Munroe island (23 February 2015)

Real time storm surge warning for the very severe cyclonic storm ‘Hudhud’

FORECAST SUMMARY

First Simulation 0530 IST of 08-10-2014

Last Simulation 1730 IST of 12-10-2014

Number of Computational Grid Points in the Inundation Model Domain

0.5 Million

Model Integration 5 Days

Time Taken for Each Simulation on HPC 45 Minutes using 256 Processors

Total number of bulletins issued 29

Maximum surge simulated for the entire duration of the event

2.4m near Pedanagayyapalem, Puspatirega mandal, Andhra Pradesh based on track forecast issued by IMD at 1430 IST of 11th October

Maximum inundation extent simulated for the entire duration of the event

400 m near Pedanagayyapalem, Puspatirega mandal, Andhra Pradesh

Real time storm surge warning for the very severe cyclonic storm ‘Hudhud’

Real time validation of surge levels with observed tide gauge records.

(Tide gauge station: Visakhapattanam)

Ocean State Forecast system for neighbouring countries

Ocean State Forecast system for Sri Lanka and Seychelles in collaboration with

RIMES, inaugurated on 10th July 2015

OSF has been providing to Maldives for 2 years

Streamlined Operational Dissemination System

Telephone / Fax

Electronic Display Boards

Emails

Web internet

- Maps & Text

- Web GIS

SMS

Radio and Doordarshan

Local News Papers

Information Kiosks

Dissemination of ocean state forecasts

Networking with NGOs and fishermen societies

Advisories are provided in English, Hindi and 9 Local

languages, making them more acceptable and usable

INCOIS is providing global ocean re-analysis on operational basis starting

from 2003 to till date. This global ocean re-analysis is generated by

assimilating a rich collection of ocean temperature and salinity profiles from

various observation networks (Argo, moored buoys, XBTs, NIOT buoys etc.)

in Global Ocean Data Assimilation System configured at INCOIS (modified

version of NCEP-GODAS)

THANK YOU abhisek.c@incois.gov.in

For more details please visit our wave page

www.incois.gov.in