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Indicators

Strategic Asia by the Numbers

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table of contentsEconomies

Table 1: Gross domestic product 454Table 2: GDP growth and inflation rate 455

The Changing Nature of the Asian EconomyTable 3: GDP by sector 456Table 4: R&D expenditures and high tech exports 457

TradeTable 5: Trade flow 458Table 6: Export partners 459Table 7: Import partners 459

InvestmentTable 8: Flow of foreign direct investment 460Table 9: Origins of FDI 461

Population and SocietyTable 10: Population 462Table 11: Urbanization and unemployment rate 463

Politics and International RelationsTable 12: Political leadership 464Table 13: Political rights, corruption, and globalization rankings 465

Energy and EnvironmentTable 14: Energy consumption 466Table 15: Energy consumption by fuel type 467

Defense SpendingTable 16: Total defense expenditure 468Table 17: Defense expenditure as share of GDP and CGE 469

Conventional Military DevelopmentsTable 18: Manpower 470Table 19: Conventional warfare capabilities, 2007 471

Weapons of Mass DestructionTable 20: Nuclear weapons 472Table 21: Intercontinental ballistic missiles 472Table 22: Nonproliferation treaties 473Table 23: WMD export control regimes 473

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Indicators

Strategic Asia by the Numbers

The following twenty pages contain tables and figures drawn from NBR’s Strategic Asia database and its sources This appendix consists of 23 tables covering: economic growth, economic sectors, R&D, trade, and foreign investment; population size and growth, urbanization, and unemployment levels; politics and international relations; energy consumption; and armed forces, defense spending, conventional military developments, and WMD The data sets presented here summarize the critical trends in the region and changes underway in the balance of power in Asia

The Strategic Asia database contains additional data for all 37 countries in Strategic Asia Hosted on the program’s website (http://strategicasia nbr org), the database is a repository for authoritative data for every year since 1990 and is continually updated The 70 strategic indicators are arranged in ten broad thematic areas: economy, finance, trade and investment, government spending, population, energy and environment, communications and transportation, armed forces, WMD, and politics and international relations The Strategic Asia database was developed with NET, Microsoft’s XML-based platform, which allows users to dynamically link to all or part of the Strategic Asia data set and facilitates easy data sharing The database also includes additional links that allow users to seamlessly access related online resources

The information for Strategic Asia by the Numbers was compiled by Next Generation research fellow Andrew David with the assistance of NBR intern Marc Miller

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454 • Strategic Asia 2008–09

EconomiesAsia’s economy grew at a rate of 8 7% in 2007, the highest level in almost

twenty years The growth rate is forecast to slow to 7 6% in 2008 but to then take a slight upturn in 2009 Though not immune to the global slowdown, Asia will likely remain on a strong trajectory as a result of continuing growth in productivity Rising prices are having an impact, however, and inflation could hit a decade-long regional high

• China’s and India’s economies grew at rates of 11.4% and 8.7% in 2007 but are expected to slow to 10% and 8% respectively in 2008

• Growth in Southeast Asia is expected to slow to a level of 5.8% in 2008 as the global slowdown affects exports Vietnam has been particularly hard-hit so far with a rising trade deficit and inflation over 25%

• Rising oil and natural resource prices spurred economic growth of 11 6% in Central Asia in 2007, but deceleration is projected for 2008 as a result of weaker expansion in Kazakhstan

• In Russia high commodity and oil prices provide economic support, though inflation, nearing 13% in early 2008, remains a problem

t a b l e 1 Gross domestic product

GDP ($bn constant 2000) Rank

1990 2000 2006 2005–06 growth (%) 1990 2006

United States 7,055.0 9,764.8 11,314.7 3.3 1 1

Japan 4,111.3 4,667.4 5,087.8 2.2 2 2

China 444.6 1,198.5 2,095.9 10.7 4 3

Canada 535.6 724.9 845.4 2.8 3 4

India 269.4 460.2 703.3 9.2 8 5

South Korea 283.6 511.7 671.3 5.0 6 6

Australia 280.5 399.6 481.6 2.4 7 7

Russia 385.9 259.7 373.2 6.7 5 8

Taiwan – 303.2 312.2 4.6 – 9

Hong Kong 108.4 169.1 221.1 6.9 10 10

Indonesia 109.2 165.0 219.3 5.5 9 11

Thailand 79.4 122.7 165.0 5.0 11 12

Singapore 44.7 92.7 121.6 7.9 14 13

Malaysia 45.5 90.3 118.4 5.9 13 14

Philippines 55.8 75.9 99.6 5.4 12 15

World 23,996.7 31,876.3 37,868.9 4.0 N/A N/A

s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008; and Central Bank of China, 2006 n o t e : These values show GDP converted from domestic currencies using 2000 exchange rates Figures for Taiwan are calculated using the average exchange rate for 2000 Dash indicates that no data is available

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Strategic Asia by the Numbers • 455

Projected GDP growth (2008)s o u r c e : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2008

China9.3%

India7.9%

Japan1.4% Canada

1.3%

United States0.5%

t a b l e 2 GDP growth and inflation rate

Average GDP growth (%) Average inflation rate (%)

1990–99 2000–04 2005–07 1990–99 2000–04 2005–07

United States 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.8

Japan 1.5 1.3 2.5 1.3 -0.5 0.0

China 9.3 8.4 10.3 7.4 0.8 2.7

Canada 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.2

India 4.8 5.7 8.2 10.0 5.0 5.2

South Korea 6.2 5.7 4.6 5.6 3.0 2.5

Australia 3.4 3.9 3.1 2.6 2.1 3.2

Russia -6.6 5.7 7.0 34.8 15.9 10.9

Taiwan 5.8 3.4 4.6 3.2 0.6 1.7

Hong Kong 3.5 4.6 6.3 6.8 0.4 1.7

Indonesia 3.6 4.1 5.7 19.3 9.1 10.0

Thailand 5.1 4.7 4.6 5.1 1.8 3.9

Singapore 6.9 3.8 7.1 2.0 1.0 1.9

Malaysia 6.6 5.0 5.5 10.5 1.5 3.0

Philippines 2.7 4.2 6.0 9.2 4.5 5.5

s o u r c e : Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, 1990–2008.

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The Changing Nature of the Asian EconomyAsian countries continue to produce low-cost goods for export to

Europe and the United States, but there are indications that the composition of many Asian economies is changing as countries move up the technological ladder and higher-level education expands

• Japan spends the highest proportion of GDP on R&D, with the United States, second; South Korea, third; and Singapore fourth High tech exports increased in most Southeast Asian countries, but these countries—with the exception of Singapore—spend little on R&D

• Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh announced plans to increase R&D spending to 2% of GDP by 2012

• Chinese policymakers are emphasizing indigenous innovation, research, and production, as witnessed by a quadrupling of patent applications from 2003 to 2006 and a doubling of R&D spending as a percentage of GDP China remains well behind the United States and Japan, however, in both categories.

t a b l e 3 GDP by sector

GDP by sector (%)

Agriculture Manufacturing Services

1990 2005 1990 2005 1990 2005

Australia 3.6 3.3d 14.5 12.4d 66.4 69.6d

Canada 2.9 2.2c 17.2 17.9c 65.3 66.4c

China 27.0 12.5 32.9 33.3 31.3 40.1

Hong Kong 0.2 0.1 16.7 3.4 73.4 90.7

India 31.3 18.3 17.1 15.7 41.1 54.4

Indonesia 19.4 13.1 20.7 27.5 41.5 42.0

Japan 2.6 1.7d 23.3b 21d 57.9 68.1d

Kazakhstan 26.7a 6.8 8.9a 14.6 28.7a 53.8

Malaysia 15.2 8.7 24.2 30.6 42.6 40.0

Philippines 21.9 13.6 24.8 23.3 43.6 53.4

Russia – 5.6 – 17.9 – 56.4

Singapore 0.4 0.1 27.3 28.0 64.9 66.1

South Korea 8.9 3.4 27.3 28.4 49.5 57.2

United States 2.1 1.3d 19.4 14.2d 70.1 76.7d

Vietnam 38.7 20.9 12.3 20.7 38.6 38.2

s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008 n o t e : a indicates data from 1992, b indicates data is from 1996, c indicates data is from 2002, and d indicates data is from 2004 Dash indicates that no data is available

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Patent Applicationss o u r c e : World Intellectual Property Organization, Patent Cooperation Treaty filings

China5,456

India686

Japan27,731 Canada

2,707

United States52,280

t a b l e 4 R&D expenditures and high tech exports

R&D expenditures (% GDP)

High tech exports (% of manufacturing exports)

1996 2004 1990 2005

Australia 1.7 1.7i 11.9 12.7

Canada 1.7 1.9 13.7 14.4

China 0.6 1.4 6.1 30.6

Hong Kong 0.4f 0.6i 12.1 33.9

India – 0.8g 2.4 4.9k

Indonesia – 0.1h 1.2b 16.3

Japan 2.8 3.2j 23.8 22.5

Kazakhstan 0.3d 0.2h 4.5c 2.3j

Malaysia 0.2 0.7i 38.2 54.7

Philippines – 0.1 32.5a 71.0

Russia 1.0 1.2 9.4d 8.1

Singapore 1.4 2.3 39.7 56.6

South Korea 2.4 2.6k 17.8 32.3

United States 2.6d 2.7 33.7 31.8

Vietnam – 0.2i 2.2e 5.6j

s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008 n o t e : a indicates data is from 1991, b indicates data is from 1992, c indicates data is from 1995, d indicates data is from 1996, e indicates data is from 1997, f indicates data is from 1998, g indicates data is from 2000, h indicates data is from 2001, i indicates data is from 2002, j indicates data is from 2003, and k indicates data is from 2004 Dash indicates that no data is available

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TradeOwing to concerns over an economic slowdown in the United States

and the global impact of the sub-prime loans crisis, many Asian countries have begun exploring ways to reduce dependence on U S and European markets Asia is unlikely to dramatically decouple from the U S and European markets, however, because product components destined for these markets comprise much of the growth of intraregional trade

• As a region East Asia had a growing current account surplus in 2007, while South Asia’s current account deficit continued

• In June 2007 the United States and South Korea concluded negotiations on an FTA to expand trade and investment ties Unresolved issues in both states, however, especially over imports of U S beef, have delayed the agreement’s approval and implementation and have undermined support for the new South Korean government

• The growth of intra-Asian trade and domestic demand has diminished the effect of declining exports to developed countries Asian exports to China are growing rapidly, and China’s total trade recently surpassed that of Japan and South Korea combined for the first time.

t a b l e 5 Trade flow

Trade flow ($bn constant 2000) Rank

1990 2000 2006 2005–06 growth (%) 1990 2006

United States 1,159.6 2,572.1 3,649.9 6.5 1 1

China 129.9 530.2 1,914.5 17.9 6 2

Japan 649.4 957.6 1,403.2 6.4 2 3

Canada 296.3 617.4 890.4 4.6 4 4

Hong Kong 197.3 475.3 758.1 9.3 5 5

South Korea 118.0 401.6 757.0 7.9 7 6

Russia 305.9 176.8 544.3 11.7 3 7

India 39.8 130.5 429.2 8.1 13 8

Malaysia 67.0 206.7 330.6 8.4 10 9

Australia 88.1 178.0 324.8 4.5 8 10

Thailand 68.3 153.3 298.5 6.8 9 11

Indonesia 66.2 117.9 210.5 16.8 11 12

Philippines 42.8 82.7 112.5 3.6 12 13

Vietnam 4.1 35.1 75.2 19.0 15 14

New Zealand 21.6 36.6 62.8 2.2 14 15

World 8,328.2 15,957.1 29,038.4 7.4 N/A N/A

s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1990–2008.n o t e : Data for Vietnam is for 2005 rather than 2006 World total for 2006 is an estimate No comparable data from the World Development Indicators is available for Singapore or Taiwan

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Current account balance as a share of GDP (2007)s o u r c e : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2008 n o t e : Asterisk indicates value is an estimate

China11.1%*

Hong Kong12.3%*

Japan4.0%

Canada0.9%

United States-5.3%

t a b l e 6 Export partners

Exports ($bn) 2007

Export destinations (top three partners in 2006 with percentage share of total exports)

United States 1,140.0 Canada (22%), Mexico (13%), Japan (6%)

China 1,221.0 U.S. (21%), Hong Kong (16%), Japan (10%)

Japan 665.7 U.S. (23%), China (14%), South Korea (8%)

Canada 440.1 U.S. (82%), UK (2%), Japan (2%)

Hong Kong 353.3 China (47%), U.S. (15%), Japan (59%)

South Korea 371.5 China (22%), U.S. (13%), Japan (7%)

s o u r c e : Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, 2008 n o t e : Values for South Korea are for 2007

t a b l e 7 Import partners

Imports ($bn) 2007

Import origins (top three partners in 2006 with percentage share of total imports)

United States 1,987.0 Canada (16%), China (16%), Mexico (10%)

China 917.4 Japan (15%), South Korea (11%), Taiwan (11%)

Japan 571.1 China (21%), U.S. (12%), Saudi Arabia (6%)

Canada 394.4 U.S. (55%), China (9%), Mexico (4%)

Hong Kong 371.3 China (46%), Japan (10%), Taiwan (8%)

South Korea 356.8 China (18%), Japan (16%), U.S. (11%)

s o u r c e : Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, 2008 n o t e : Values for South Korea are for 2007

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InvestmentFDI inflows are strong across much of Asia FDI outflows have also

increased in developed and developing countries Asia is much more resilient today than a decade ago due both to broad economic reforms in the corporate and financial sectors and to improved monetary policies

• FDI inflows to Canada, Russia, India, New Zealand, and Kazakhstan more than doubled between 2005 and 2006

• China and Hong Kong accounted for 53%–68% of total FDI inflows to Asia over the past decade The ADB reports that FDI to China and Hong Kong is positively correlated to other Asian economies In 2006 East Asia attracted the greatest inflow of FDI at $119 3 billion, followed by Southeast Asia at $83 6 billion, Central Asia and Russia at $42 9 billion, and South Asia at $22 3 billion

• China’s FDI outflows—focused on Asia and Africa—increased from an average of $2 2 billion between 1990 and 2000 to $16 1 billion in 2006 China’s outward FDI is only 23% of China’s total inward FDI, however, and is significantly less than outward FDI from the United States ($216.6 billion) and Japan ($50.3 billion) in 2006.

t a b l e 8 Flow of foreign direct investment

FDI inflows ($bn) FDI outflows ($bn)

1990–2000 annual avg. 2006 2005–06

growth (%)2006 rank

1990–2000 annual avg. 2006

United States 109.5 175.4 73.6 1 92.0 216.6

China 30.1 69.5 -4.1 2 2.2 16.1

Hong Kong 13.8 69.0 27.6 3 20.4 43.5

Canada 15.7 42.9 138.7 4 15.8 45.2

Russia 2.4 28.7 125.1 5 1.6 18.0

Singapore 9.2 24.2 61.3 6 4.8 8.6

Australia 7.0 24.0 N/A 7 3.2 22.3

India 1.7 16.9 152.9 8 0.1 9.7

Thailand 3.2 9.8 8.9 9 0.4 0.8

New Zealand 2.3 8.1 383.5 10 0.5 1.2

Malaysia 4.7 6.1 52.8 11 1.6 6.0

Kazakhstan 1.0 6.1 210.7 12 0.0 -0.4

Indonesia 1.5 5.6 -33.4 13 0.6 3.4

South Korea 3.1 5.0 -29.8 14 3.1 7.1

Pakistan 0.5 4.3 94.1 15 0.0 0.1

World 495.4 1,305.9 38.1 N/A 492.6 1,215.8

s o u r c e : United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, World Investment Report, 2007 n o t e : Dash indicates that no data is available; net FDI inflows for Australia were negative in 2005

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FDI outflows (2006)s o u r c e : United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, World Investment Report, 2007

China$16.1 bn

Russia $18.0 bn

Hong Kong$43.5 bn

United States$216.6 bn

t a b l e 9 Origins of FDI

Origins of FDI (leading countries of origin for inward investment in 2006)

United States UK, France, Netherlands

China Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea

Hong Kong China, Virgin Islands, Bermuda

Canada France, Netherlands, Switzerland

Russia UK, Cyprus, Netherlands

Singapore U.S., EU, Japan

Australia U.S., UK, Japan

India UK, U.S., Netherlands

Thailand Japan, U.S., Netherlands

New Zealand Australia, United Kingdom, Canada

Malaysia Japan, Germany, Iran

Kazakhstan Netherlands, U.S., Japan

Indonesia Singapore, UK, South Korea

South Korea Netherlands, U.S., Japan

Pakistan U.S., UK, Netherlands

s o u r c e : Economist Intelligence Unit, 2007; and U S Department of Commerce, Country Commercial Guides, 2008 n o t e : Since data for FDI by country is not reported in a consistent form and varies across sources, this table shows only the main countries of origin for FDI and omits the values and percentage share Data for Kazakhstan is from 2005

Canada$45.2 bn

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Population and SocietyAsia’s population is expected to grow from 4 1 billion in 2007 to 4 8

billion in 2025 and to 5 3 billion in 2050 The percentage of people living in urban areas is likely to increase from 40% in 2005 to 55% by 2030, with growth highest in small and medium-sized cities

• An influx of young workers and a surplus of unskilled labor are transforming the workforce in Asia’s developing countries Nearly half the population in countries such as Cambodia, Laos, Pakistan, Vietnam, and India is under the age of 20 China’s population, however, is less young than that of other developing Asian nations—only 31% are under the age of 20

• Japan’s population is declining and over 40% of its population is at least 50 years old Russia’s population has declined by 0 5% and is expected to fall to 128 million by 2025

• The number of people in Asia living on less than a dollar a day decreased from approximately 930 million in 1990 to 650 million in 2002 In developing countries, however, regional and class inequalities are rising

t a b l e 1 0 Population

Population (m) Rank

1990 2000 2006 2005–06 growth (%) 1990 2006

China 1,135.2 1,262.6 1,311.8 0.6 1 1

India 849.5 1,015.9 1,109.8 1.4 2 2

United States 249.6 282.2 299.0 0.9 3 3

Indonesia 178.2 206.3 223.0 1.1 4 4

Pakistan 108.0 138.1 159.0 2.1 7 5

Bangladesh 104.0 128.9 144.3 1.8 8 6

Russia 148.3 146.3 142.4 -0.5 5 7

Japan 123.5 126.9 127.6 -0.2 6 8

Philippines 61.1 75.8 84.6 1.8 10 9

Vietnam 66.2 78.5 84.1 1.2 9 10

Thailand 54.6 61.4 64.7 0.8 11 11

Myanmar 40.8 47.7 51.0 0.9 13 12

South Korea 42.9 47.0 48.4 0.6 12 13

Canada 27.8 30.8 32.6 0.8 14 14

Nepal 19.1 24.4 27.7 1.9 15 15

World 5,256.3 6,059.5 6,517.8 1.1 N/A N/A

s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008

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Projected population in 2025s o u r c e : U S Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008

China1,453 m

India1,449 m

United States350 m

Indonesia279 m

Pakistan218 m

t a b l e 1 1 Urbanization and unemployment rate

Urban population (m) Unemployment (%)

1990 2000 2006 1990 2000 2005

China 311.0 452.0 541.8 2.5 3.1 4.2

India 216.6 281.4 321.6 – 4.3 5.0

United States 188.0 223.2 242.5 5.6 4.0 5.1

Indonesia 54.5 86.6 109.8 – 6.1 10.3

Pakistan 33.0 45.7 56.2 2.6 7.2 7.7

Bangladesh 20.6 29.9 36.9 1.9 3.3 7.9

Russia 108.8 107.4 103.8 – 9.8 –

Japan 78.0 82.7 84.2 2.1 4.8 4.4

Philippines 29.8 44.3 53.7 8.1 10.1 2.1

Vietnam 13.4 19.1 22.6 – – 7.4

Thailand 16.1 19.1 21.1 2.2 2.4 1.3

Myanmar 10.1 13.4 15.9 0.0 – –

South Korea 31.6 37.4 39.2 2.5 4.1 3.7

Canada 21.3 24.4 26.1 8.2 6.8 6.8

Nepal 1.7 3.3 4.5 – – –

s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008 n o t e : Unemployment figures are calculated by percentage of total work force Dash indicates that no data is available

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Politics and International Relations2007–08 was a momentous year of political change in the Asia-Pacific,

with leadership transitions in many countries There are indications that some newly elected leaders will break with the policies of their predecessors

• President Ma Ying-jeou returned the KMT to power in Taiwan, promising to take a less confrontational and more pragmatic approach toward China as well as to focus on the economy

• The LDP in Japan lost its upper house majority in parliament for the first time ever. The new prime minister, Yasuo Fukuda, backed away from his predecessor’s proposal to create an “arc of freedom and prosperity” with India and Australia

• Former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in December 2007 after returning from exile to run in parliamentary elections Her Pakistan Peoples Party now leads a four-party governing coalition that includes Nawaz Sharif ’s Pakistan Muslim League

• In Russia President Vladimir Putin’s handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, was easily elected and appointed Putin as prime minister

t a b l e 1 2 Political leadership

Political leader Date assumed office

Next election

Australia Prime Minister Kevin Rudd December 2007 2010

Canada Prime Minister Stephen Harper February 2006 2009

China President Hu Jintao March 2003 N/A

India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh May 2004 2009

Indonesia President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono October 2004 2009

Japan Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda September 2007 2009

Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev December 1991 2012

Malaysia Prime Minister Abdullah bin Ahmad Badawi October 2003 2013

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf June 2001 2012

Philippines President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo January 2001 2010

Russia President Dmitry Medvedev May 2008 2012

South Korea President Lee Myung-bak February 2008 2012

Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou May 2008 2012

Thailand Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej January 2008 2011

United States President George W. Bush January 2001 2008

s o u r c e : Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, 2008 Table shows next election year in which the given leader may lose or retain his position In some countries elections may be called before these years

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Favorable Views of the U.S. (2007 vs. 2008)s o u r c e :The Pew Global Attitudes Project, June 12, 2008.

t a b l e 1 3 Political rights, corruption, and globalization rankings

Political rights score Corruption score Globalization index

2000 2007 2000 2007 2001 2007

Australia 1 1 8.3 8.6 23 13

Canada 1 1 9.2 8.7 10 8

China 7 7 3.1 3.5 47 66

India 2 2 2.8 3.5 48 71

Indonesia 3 2 1.7 2.3 38 69

Japan 1 1 6.4 7.5 29 28

Kazakhstan 6 6 3.0 2.1 – –

Malaysia 5 4 4.8 5.1 20 23

Pakistan 6 6 – 2.4 – 63

Philippines 2 4 2.8 2.5 33 38

Russia 5 6 2.1 2.3 44 62

South Korea 2 1 4.0 5.1 31 35

Taiwan 1 2 5.5 5.7 – 37

Thailand 2 6 3.2 3.3 30 53

United States 1 1 7.8 7.2 12 7

s o u r c e : Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2001 and 2008, Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index, 2001 and 2007; and A T Kearney/Foreign Policy, Globalization Index, 2001 and 2007 n o t e : Political rights = ability of the people to participate freely in the political process (1=most free/7=least free) Corruption = degree to which public official corruption is perceived to exist (1=most corrupt/10=most open) The globalization index tracks changes in economic integration, technological connectivity, personal contact, and political engagement (rank of countries, 1=most globalized, number of countries increased from 62 to 72 in 2007) Dash indicates that no data is available

China34% vs. 41%

Russia41% vs. 46%

India59% vs. 66%

Indonesia29% vs. 37%

Japan61% vs. 50%

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Energy and EnvironmentDriven by soaring energy prices and a nascent environmental

movement, Asian states are prioritizing access to and protection of natural resources across the globe The 2007 UN Climate Change Conference in Bali and 2008 G-8 Summit advanced dialogue on climate change, though disagreements persist between developed and developing countries

• Beijing set up an energy commission and a new energy bureau in 2008. Both are run by the National Development and Reform Commission rather than by a separate energy ministry

• Russian oil production has slumped for the first time in a decade. Officials and oil companies argue that the country must utilize the untapped expanses of East Siberia to ensure future growth, but the lack of infrastructure, new legislation limiting foreign investment, and harsh operating conditions will complicate expansion

• By 2025 Asia is expected to contribute 35% of world carbon emissions. From 1990 to 2004 carbon emissions in Northeast Asia increased by 93% and in South Asia by 100%, though South Asian emissions are only 36% those of Northeast Asia

t a b l e 1 4 Energy consumption

Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu) Rank

1990 2000 2007 2006–07 growth (%)

1990 2007

United States 78.0 91.7 93.7 1.7 1 1

China 27.2 38.4 73.9 7.7 2 2

Russia – 25.2 27.5 0.6 – 3

Japan 17.2 20.4 20.5 -0.9 3 4

India 7.7 12.7 16.0 6.8 5 5

Canada 9.8 11.5 12.8 0.5 4 6

South Korea 3.6 7.6 9.3 3.0 6 7

Australia 3.5 4.4 4.8 -1.6 7 8

Taiwan 2.0 3.8 4.6 2.8 9 9

Indonesia 2.1 3.8 4.5 2.9 8 10

Thailand 1.2 2.4 3.4 3.5 10 11

Kazakhstan – 1.6 2.4 0.8 – 12

Malaysia 1.0 1.8 2.3 -1.2 12 13

Pakistan 1.1 1.6 2.3 3.0 11 14

Uzbekistan – 2.0 2.0 5.5 – 15

World 322.7 369.4 444.0 2.4 N/A N/A

s o u r c e : BP plc , “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” 2007 n o t e : Dash indicates that no data is available

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China13.2 m bbl/day

Russia 3.3 m bbl/day

Japan 5.5 m bbl/day

India4.1 m bbl/day

United States26.1 m bbl/day

Projected oil consumption (2025)s o u r c e : U S Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration database, 2008

t a b l e 1 5 Energy consumption by fuel type

2007 energy consumption by fuel type (%)

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro

United States 39.9 25.2 24.3 8.1 2.4

China 19.7 3.3 70.4 0.8 5.9

Russia 18.2 57.1 13.7 5.2 5.9

Japan 44.2 15.7 24.2 12.2 3.7

India 31.8 8.9 51.4 1.0 6.8

Canada 31.8 26.3 9.5 6.6 25.9

South Korea 46.0 14.2 25.5 13.8 0.5

Australia 34.7 18.6 43.6 0.0 3.1

Taiwan 45.6 9.2 35.7 8.0 1.5

Indonesia 47.5 26.5 24.3 0.0 1.7

Thailand 50.3 37.2 10.4 0.0 2.2

Kazakhstan 17.6 29.6 49.8 0.0 3.0

Malaysia 41.1 44.3 12.1 0.0 2.5

Pakistan 30.7 47.5 7.9 0.9 12.9

Uzbekistan 11.6 82.8 2.8 0.0 2.8

s o u r c e : BP plc , “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” 2007 n o t e : Due to rounding, some totals may not add up to exactly 100%

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Defense SpendingMost major countries are modernizing their militaries and increasing

defense capabilities The rate of defense spending increases, however, generally does not exceed the rate of GDP growth accross the region

• Russian defense expenditures increased from $58 billion in 2005 to $70 billion in 2006 but fell as a share of GDP Budget increases enabled engagement in military exercises and the resumption of long-range strategic bomber flights

• China’s officially stated 2008 increase in defense spending was 17.6%, which includes a focus on improving personnel, salaries, and benefits

• The leading arms importers in Asia in 2006 were China ($2.9 bn), Taiwan ($1 bn), and India ($0 8 bn) The United States ($14 bn), Russia ($5 8 bn), and China ($0 7 bn) were leading arms suppliers

• Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand made purchases in 2007 that enhanced traditional war-fighting abilities Singapore purchased combat and early-warning aircraft, and Malaysia received previously ordered combat aircraft

t a b l e 1 6 Total defense expenditure

Expenditure ($bn) Rank

1990 2000 20062005–06 growth

(%)1990 2006

United States 293.0 300.5 536.0 8.2 1 1

China 11.3 42.0 121.9 17.9 3 2

Russia – 60.0 70.0 20.7 – 3

Japan 28.7 45.6 41.1 -6.3 2 4

South Korea 10.6 12.8 24.6 14.5 4 5

India 10.1 14.7 22.4 3.2 6 6

Australia 7.3 7.1 17.2 10.7 8 7

Canada 10.3 8.1 15.0 13.1 5 8

Taiwan 8.7 17.6 7.7 -3.0 7 9

Myanmar 0.9 2.1 6.9 -0.3 13 10

Singapore 1.7 4.8 6.3 13.3 11 11

Pakistan 2.9 3.7 4.2 2.6 9 12

Indonesia 1.6 1.5 3.6 27.0 12 13

Vietnam – 1.0 3.4 9.1 – 14

Malaysia 1.7 2.8 3.2 3.1 10 15

World 954.0 811.4 1,297.8 7.8 N/A N/A

s o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, various editions; and (data for World in 1990) SASI Group and Mark Newman, “Military Spending 1990,” 2006 n o t e : Estimates for China vary widely Dash indicates that no data is available

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Defense expenditures as a share of GDP (2006)s o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 2008

China1.3%

Russia4.1%

Japan0.9%

South Korea2.8%

United States4.0%

t a b l e 1 7 Defense expenditure as share of GDP and CGE

Defense expenditure as a share of GDP (%)

Defense expenditure as a share of CGE (%)

1990–99 2000–04 2006 1990–99 2000–04 2006

United States 4.2 3.4 4.0 18.5 17.3 19.5

China 5.2 3.9 2.1 28.3 19.4 –

Russia 7.6 4.5 3.6 26.1 18.4 20.5

Japan 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.7 – –

South Korea 3.5 2.7 2.5 16.8 13.9 –

India 2.9 2.9 2.7 13.7 14.4 17.7

Australia 2.3 2.2 1.9 9.0 7.2 7.5

Canada 1.6 1.2 1.2 6.3 6.3 6.5

Taiwan 5.0 2.1 2.0 30.6 7.8 –

Myanmar 5.5 5.8 – 99.8 – –

Singapore 5.1 5.0 4.7 21.9 29.3 –

Pakistan 6.8 4.1 3.2 26.9 25.3 24.9

Indonesia 1.6 2.7 1.3 7.4 – –

Vietnam 6.7 7.2 – 11.2 – –

Malaysia 2.5 2.2 2.2 13.0 10.9 –

s o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, various editions; Department of State, “World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers,” 2003; World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008; and SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, 2008 n o t e : Data for some countries over certain periods is partial Dash indicates that no data is available

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Conventional Military DevelopmentsIncreased defense spending in Asia has not significantly increased the

size of armed forces but has contributed to their modernization States have increased security cooperation and joint exercises to improve regional trust and their abilities to respond to nontraditional security threats

• China has committed more resources to its navy, including new ships, weapons, and 35 new submarines over the past fifteen years The PLA’s response to the 2008 earthquake was rapid, even as it revealed ongoing challenges with shortages of helicopters and engineer equipment

• Improvement in Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities has supported the status quo political arrangement

• India and China took steps to increase defense cooperation in 2006–07, but New Delhi remains concerned over China’s growing activity in the Indian Ocean region and relationships with Pakistan and Myanmar

• In September 2007 Australia, India, Japan, Singapore, and the United States participated in the biggest joint naval exercise to date in the Indian Ocean

t a b l e 1 8 Manpower

Armed forces (th) Rank

1990 2000 2008 2007–08 change (th) 1990 2008

China 3,030 2,470 2,105 -150 2 1

United States 2,118 1,366 1,498 -8 3 2

India 1,262 1,303 1,288 -28 4 3

North Korea 1,111 1,082 1,106 0 5 4

Russia 3,988 1,004 1,027 0 1 5

South Korea 750 683 687 0 7 6

Pakistan 550 612 619 0 8 7

Vietnam 1,052 484 455 0 6 8

Myanmar 230 344 406 31 13 9

Thailand 283 301 306 -1 10 10

Indonesia 283 297 302 0 10 11

Taiwan 370 370 290 0 9 12

Japan 249 237 240 0 12 13

Sri Lanka 65 – 151 0 15 14

Bangladesh 103 137 150 23 14 15

World 26,605 22,237 19,801 -169 N/A N/A

s o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, various editions n o t e : Active duty and military personnel only Data value for Russia in 1990 includes all territories of the Soviet Union Dash indicates that no data is available

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Short-term troop deployments overseas (UN and non-UN, 2007–08)s o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 2008

China1,957

Russia 1,420

India9,265

United States196,999

South Korea1,808

t a b l e 1 9 Conventional warfare capabilities, 2007

Tanks, APCs/LAVs, artillery

Combat aircraft

Principal surface

combatantsSubmarines

China 30,010 2,554 75 62

United States 35,995 4,191 106 71

India 16,366 599 48 16

North Korea 24,460 590 8 63

Russia 59,171 1,981 62 67

South Korea 15,584 563 44 12

Pakistan 8,018 360 6 8

Vietnam 6,355 219 11 2

Myanmar 968 125 3 0

Thailand 4,343 165 20 0

Indonesia 2,004 94 29 0

Taiwan 4,596 478 26 4

Japan 3,610 360 53 16

Sri Lanka 1,242 22 0 0

Bangladesh 951 76 4 0

s o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 2008

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Weapons of Mass DestructionThe six-party talks have seemingly advanced the prospect of a

nuclear weapons–free North Korea, but concern over Iran’s ambitions has heightened Leadership changes in Asia introduced new views on long-standing nuclear proliferation and WMD issues

• In a symbolic gesture North Korea destroyed a cooling tower at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor in June 2008 to signal its intention to dismantle the reactor and cease plutonium production

• Despite indications that the country might be amenable to nuclear negotiations with Western powers, Tehran’s test of a new version of the Shahab-3, a long-range missile potentially capable of striking Israel, called into question Iran’s interest in diplomatic engagement

• Wary of closer bilateral relations, left-wing opposition to the U.S.-India civilian nuclear agreement in India’s governing coalition has delayed New Delhi’s approval of the agreement

• Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd reversed his predecessor’s decision to sell uranium to India because India has not signed the NPT

t a b l e 2 1 Intercontinental ballistic missiles

Number of ICBMs

1990 1995 2000 2007

Russia 1,398 930 776 508

United States 1,000 580 550 500

China 8 17+ 20+ 46

India – – – –

Pakistan – – – –

North Korea – – – ?

s o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, various editions n o t e : Dash indicates that no data is available Question mark indicates unconfirmed possession of ICBMs

t a b l e 2 0 Nuclear weapons

Nuclear weapons possession Warheads

1990 1995 2000 2007 2007

Russia • • • • ~16,000

United States • • • • ~10,300

China • • • • 410

India • • • • 70–110

Pakistan – – • • 50–110

North Korea ? ? ? • ~5–10

s o u r c e : Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Monterey Institute of International Studies n o t e : Table shows confirmed (•) and unknown (?) possession of nuclear weapons Dash indicates that no data is available

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Estimated intermediate- and medium-range ballistic missiless o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 2008

China35

Pakistan 21–26

India12

North KoreaEstimated: 115

t a b l e 2 2 Nonproliferation treaties

NPT Additional Protocol CTBT CWC BTWC

Russia Ratified Signatory Ratified Ratified Ratified

United States Ratified Signatory Signatory Ratified Ratified

China Ratified Ratified Signatory Ratified Ratified

India – – – Ratified Ratified

Pakistan – – – Ratified Ratified

North Korea Withdrew – – – Acceded

s o u r c e : Nuclear Threat Initiative; and Monterey Institute of International Studies n o t e : NPT = Nonproliferation Treaty, CTBT = Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, CWC = Chemical Weapons Convention, BTWC = Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention, Additional Protocol = IAEA Additional Protocol Dash indicates non-participation

t a b l e 2 3 WMD export control regimes

Nuclear Suppliers

Group

Australia Group

Wassenaar Arrangement

Zangger Committee MTCR

Russia Member – Member Member Member

United States Member Member Member Member Member

China Member – – Member –

India – – – – –

Pakistan – – – – –

North Korea – – – – –

s o u r c e : Nuclear Threat Initiative; and Monterey Institute of International Studies n o t e : Dash indicates non-participation

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indicators - nbr. · pdf filestrategicasia nbr org), ... 5,456 india 686 japan 27,731 canada...

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