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20. Ecology and Environmental Protection

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF RURAL COMMUNITIES TO FLOODS

IN THE WESTERN PART OF ROMANIA (BANAT PLAIN)

Dr. Popovici Elena-Ana1

Dr. Andra Costache2

Prof. Dr. Blteanu Dan1

Dr. Diana Dogaru1

Dr. Mihaela Sima1

1Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania

2 Valahia University Targoviste, Romania

ABSTRACT

Climate change scenarios for Romania show an increasing tendency of extreme events

phenomena including floods, requiring their integrated spatial assessment at different

scales and management. Taking into account political, institutional and economic

transformations that Romania have passed over the last two decades, they can be

considered major driving forces for socioeconomic reconfiguration and spatial change,

with high implications on societal vulnerability and resilience of settlements and

environment to global changes. Over the last decade, Romania has recorded serious

flood events (in 2005, 2006, 2010) being one of the most affected country at continental

level. These floods caused great infrastructural damages and even causalities, partly due

to the fact that different sectors of society and infrastructure are little designed to adapt,

and partly because of improper management of such events. Moreover, public sectors

preparedness to flood hazards is almost missing, most of the protection measures being

planned and implemented post-event. In this respect, the assessment of vulnerability to

floods at different spatial scales is essential for water management plans, in general, and

for implementation of effective measures of risk mitigation and/or adaptation, in

particular. The paper aim is to develop an appropriate methodology and tools for

assessing the vulnerability of rural communities to floods in the Banat Plain, which is

one of the most affected regions in Romania, with the purpose of creating and providing

practical scientific services to policy-makers. Both quantitative and qualitative methods

will be focused, in order to emphasize and assess various components of human

vulnerability to floods. Thus, the research will identify relevant indicators in term of the

exposure of the rural communities to floods, of their sensitivity and coping capacity.

Participatory research instruments will be also designed, allowing us to integrate the

experience and knowledge of the local people in different steps of the vulnerability

assessment.

Keywords: Banat Plain, vulnerability assessment, floods, methodology development

INTRODUCTION

The socio-economic, political and institutional changes faced by the Romanian society

in the last two decades created a fragile context, which made it extremely difficult to

build a solid framework for structural and non-structural measures aimed to mitigate the

impact of floods.

13th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2013

Recent hydro-meteorological extreme events (floods occurred in 2005, 2006 and 2010)

have highlighted weaknesses in flood management, both at institutional level and in

local communities response, the social factors having a significant role in amplifying

the impact of extreme events.

Given that climate scenarios for Romania showed an increasing trend in the frequency

of extreme events [1], clearly designed measures are required in order to increase the

resilience of human communities to floods, especially through pre-disaster

preparedness. So far, the floods occurred in Romania revealed that the public sectors

preparedness to flood hazards is almost missing, most of the protection measures being

planned and implemented post-event. In this respect, the assessment of vulnerability to

floods is essential for water management plans, in general, and for implementation of

effective measures of risk mitigation and/or adaptation, in particular.

The paper aim is to develop an appropriate methodology and tools for assessing the

vulnerability of rural communities to floods in the Banat Plain, which is one of the most

affected regions in Romania with the purpose of creating and providing practical

scientific services to policy-makers. Both quantitative and qualitative methods will be

employed, in order to emphasize and assess various components of human vulnerability

to floods.

The approach proposed in the present research is consistent with the international

conceptual and methodological framework of vulnerability assessment. Thus,

vulnerability defines both systems susceptibility to damage induced by environmental

change or extreme events and the capacity of the population/communities to recover

from or adjust to their effects [2]. In this respect, vulnerability analyses provide the

necessary information for evaluating the resilience of a system in front of stresses (i.e.

the ability of a system to cope with human and/or environmental-induced changes and

keep its functionality or return to a closer form of its own, after the stress impacted it)

and, ultimately for decision options to adapt and mitigate risks. The role of decision-

makers, stakeholders and institutions is essential in finding the optimal alternatives for

adaptation under new contexts and development patterns generated by various types of

hazards. Therefore, creating scientific services, including transfer mechanisms of

scientific information, for decisional structures is important in order to improve

governance of hazards and community vulnerability and to facilitate the efficiency of

decision-making process at different administrative levels.

Vulnerability derives not only from perturbations or stress factors, but also from the

sensitivity of resilient systems and their capacity to cope with hazardous situations [3].

Vulnerability assessment is based on the principle that vulnerability of an area is a

function of: a. exposure (the degree to which a system is exposed to significant

environmental change or extreme events); b. sensitivity (the degree to which the system

is sensitive to or might be affected by these pressures); and c. adaptation capacity (the

ability of a system to adjust to environmental change, to mitigate damages and to cope

with consequences) [4].

LOCAL CONTEXT OF VULNERABILITY TO FLOODS

The studied region is located in the western part of Romania, being a low plain with

altitudes between 75 and 180 m. The climate is under the dominant influence of oceanic


air masses (to which is added the invasion of Mediterranean air), and is characterized

by moderate temperatures, heating periods during winter, early springs and relatively

high average annual rainfall (600-1400 mm).

In the Banat Plain, the subsidence occupies large areas, influencing the configuration of

the hydrographical network. Rivers (Mure, Bega Veche, Bega, Timi and Brzava)

have reduced longitudinal gradients (e.g. from 0.1 to 0.3 m / km for Bega and Timi),

and they present a large number of meanders, divagations of river course and braided

streams. The plain has many abandoned courses, lakes and swampy areas. Since

eighteenth century, people carried out drainage and regulation work, which changed the

Banat landscape.

Banat Plain is a densely populated region, which holds more than 250 rural settlements,

with an average density of 2.5 settlements / 100 sq km. Due to favorable soil and

climatic conditions, land use is predominantly agricultural (cereal crops).

Characteristics of the climate regime, topography and configuration of the

hydrographical network, together with the human intervention on the landscape

(through deforestation in the mountain sector of the catchments and drainage and

embankments in the Banat Plain) are among the main factors that create conditions for

floods occurrence in the region. Some of them have disastrous effects, such as the

historical floods of April-May 2005, which caused damages of 112,000 euro in Timi

County, affecting more than 5,300 households and 92,000 ha of agricultural land [5].

In this context, an integrated assessment of the vulnerability of rural communities to

floods in the Banat Plain is a necessary step, useful especially to decision makers in the

field of extreme events management.

ASSESSING RURAL VULNERABILITY TO FLOODS: METHODOLOGICAL

APPROACH

The methodological approach proposed for the assessment of human vulnerability to

floods in the Banat Plain derives from the model of vulnerability used in the field of

global environmental change [6], [7], [8]. For the studied rural communities, the

vulnerability to floods is defined not only by their potential exposure to such extreme

events, but also by their socioeconomic and cultural characteristics, which are

influencing the level of potential impact (sensitivity) and their ability to cope with

consequences of the floods (adaptative capacity). The comunities senzitivity and

adaptive capacity are internal characteristics of these systems, emphasizing their social

or socioeconomic vulnerability [9], [10]. The vulnerability to floods of the studied rural

communities is seen as having a multilayered structure, thus multiple causes of

vulnerability should be considered (i.e. environmental, social, economical, political and

institutional causes).

In terms of the research methods, both quantitative (multi-criteria vulnerability

assessment; developing an index of rural vulnerability to floods; and conducting

questionnaires) and qualitative methods (field observations; database analysis and

development; and participatory research) will by used.

Developing an index of rural vulnerability to floods: Given the conceptual model of

vulnerability mentioned above, the authors proposed assessment of rural vulnerability

to floods (RV) will integrate data on flood exposure (such as flood severity and


probability), with socioeconomic data on the exposed systems (i.e. the rural

communities in the Banat Plain), according to the following formula:

RV = Exposure * Socioeconomic_vulnerability*Ecological_vulnerability

Indicators should emphasize different dimensions of vulnerability to floods and

different criteria of vulnerability assessment (e.g. human capital, wealth, accesibility

and natural capital) Table 1. Choice of indicators as tools used to point different local

issues will take into account the data availability (e.g. most of the indicators will be

secondary source indicators, based on 2011 Census), the relevance for the local context

and the consistency with the conceptual model of vulnerability [11].

Table 1. Indicators used in the assessment of rural vulnerability to floods in the Banat

Plain (socioeconomic and ecological vulnerability)

Dimensions of flood

vulnerability

Evaluation

criteria

Subcriteria Indicators

Social

Human capital Health Disabled people (%)

Number of doctors per capita

Number of hospital beds per capita

Education University graduates (%)

Number of students per teacher

Age Elderly (>65 ani, %)

Children (


with social capital, income level or first language) [12]. The potential impact on the

environment (ecological vulnerability) should also be considered [13].

Involving local people in the assessment of vulnerability to floods: While multi-

criteria vulnerability assessment is designed to be conducted across the studied region,

the participatory research will focus on five rural settlements (comprising 15 villages

and 12,703 inhabitants), which were most affected by the floods occurred in the spring

of 2005 (Foeni, Giulvz, Peciu Nou, Uivar and Otelec) (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1 Study area position in Romania

A questionnaire was conducted in two of these settlements (Foeni and Otelec) in the

summer of 2005, which had as main objective the investigation of people's perceptions

on the causes and consequences of the recently occurred floods, on measures taken by

the authorities to manage the crisis situation, peoples willingness to volunteer and

preparedness in the event of similar hazards [14].

Results showed the need for non-structural measures aimed to mitigate the impact of

floods (e.g. educating people in order to react appropriately to emergencies and

mandatory insurance of housing). Still, most of the respondents mentioned structural

measures, such as strengthening levees, maintenance of hydrotechnical works and of

drainage channels, as well as stopping the deforestation in the upper watershed areas.

Flood prevention was considered at that time almost exclusively a responsibility

incumbent on government and on local authorities.

A significant issue during the 2005 flood recovery was the conflictual relatioship

between community members and local authorities. The 2005 questionnaire emphasized

the need to improve communication between local people and decision-makers and to

make responsibility of the authorities clearer to the public (e.g. by adjusting exaggerated

expectation regarding the support provided by the authorities during mitigation and

recovery).


The vulnerability assessment for this study implies the application of a further

questionnaire to a larger population sample, after eight years from the previous event.

The first part of the questionnaire will be focused on topics concerning the publics

perception on the local context of vulnerability, considering the following objectives:

- Understanding peopleperception on the main types of environmental changes occurred in the Banat Plain and on their intensity;

- Understanting peoples perception on changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events;

- Identifying the extreme events perceived as threats by the local people;

- Identifying potential consequences of environmental change and extreme events in relation with households wealth.

Table 2. Questionnaire topics relevant to rural vulnerability to floods in the Banat Plain

Questionnaire topics Variables

Previous experience to flood events Personal experience (residence flooded during

previous floods, evacuation during previous floods)

Indirect experience (knowledge about flood

exposure based on the narratives of relatives and

friends)

Recovery after floods, if experienced Recovery based mainly on own resources and

social networks

Recovery based on the support of authorities

Awarness Awarness of exposure to floods in the living area

Perception of the main floods causes in the area

Perception of the floods consequences during

previous events

Worry Degree of worry regarding the occurrence of flood

events

Degree of worry for specific issues related to

floods occurrence (personal safety, safety of the

relatives, safety of the households goods)

Preparedness Self-assessed level of personal preparedness

Measures required for community preparedness

Measures required for institutional preparedness

Responsibility for implementing preparedness

measures

Respondent characteristics Age, Gender, Education, Employment, Income

level, Head of household, Household

characteristics: building material of dwellings;

number of dependent persons (children and elderly)

The second part of the questionnaire is designed to investigate the perception of

vulnerability to floods. Taking into account the results of the previous research, the

studys objectives are:


- Identifying efficient communication strategies between decision-makers and local people.

- Revealing information gaps concerning exposure to floods, mitigation measures and preparedness.

- Understand the relationship between the elements of risk perception in the studied region (i.e. previous experience of extreme events, awareness of

exposure to floods, degree of worry regarding floods occurrence and the level of

preparedness [15]).

Derived from these objectives, there are six main topics of the second part of the

questionnaire (Table 2); to ensure comparability, some of questionnaire topics are

consistent with recent research carried out on flood vulnerability [16], [17].

FUTURE ACTIVITIES FOR VALIDATION OF THE METHODOLOGICAL

APPROACH

The proposed methodological approach will be applied and validated during an

extended research activity, projected for 2013-2014. The first stage consist in

conducting the projected questionnaire, which will provide valuable information on the

local context of vulnerability and will allow us to integrate the knowledge and the

experience of local people in the assessment of rural vulnerability to floods. At the same

time, the results of the questionnaire will be useful in validation or adjustement of the

criteria proposed for the development of an index of rural vulnerability to floods.

Acknowledgments. The research for this paper was performed within the Institute of

Geographys research plan (the fundamental research project of the Romanian Academy

on The Environmental Atlas of Romania, 2013 phase) as well as within the project

funded by the Ministry of Education and Research (Partnerships Programme PN II) on

Flood vulnerability of settlements and environment in Romania within the context of

global environmental change (VULMIN), 2012-2015.

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http://www.researchgate.net/researcher/19712700_Armando_Apan/http://www.researchgate.net/researcher/79977907_Shahbaz_Mushtaq/http://www.researchgate.net/researcher/79552761_David_King/http://www.researchgate.net/researcher/80119361_Melanie_Thomas/

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