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TRANSCRIPT
Industry andMarket scenarios
Bruce DouglasChief Operating Officer
European Wind Energy Association
Marseille15 March 2009
CONTENTS
Wind energy markets
Wind industry actors
Targets and scenarios
ANNUAL WIND ENERGY INSTALLATIONS (MW, 2008)
Source: EWEA European Wind Map 2008
JQ
CUMULATIVE WIND ENERGY INSTALLATIONS (MW)
Source: EWEA European Wind Map 2008
OFFSHORE WIND OPERATING
Source: EWEA Offshore Statistics (January 2009)
OFFSHORE WIND –2015 PROSPECTS
Source: EWEA Offshore Statistics (January 2009)
EU TOP 5 NEW CAPACITY
Source: EWEA Wind Map 2008
Source: Emerging Energy Research
ONSHORE MARKETS ARE DEVELOPING AT THREESPEEDS
WIND ENERGY IN EU27 –2008 FACTS (I)
Æ65 GW installed capacity, incl. 1.47 GW offshore
ÆAnnual installations of 8.5 GW, incl. 0.35 GW offshore
ÆElectricity production of 142 TWh
ÆMeeting 4.2% of total EU electricity demand
ÆProviding power equivalent to the needs of 35 millionaverage EU households
WIND ENERGY IN EU27 –2008 FACTS (II)
ÆAvoiding 108 Mt of CO2 –equivalent to taking morethan 50 million cars off the road (20% of the EU carfleet) and equal to 31% of the EU15’s Kyoto obligation
ÆAnnual avoided fuel cost of €5.4 billion
ÆAnnual avoided CO2 costs of approximately €2.4 billion
ÆAnnual investments in wind turbines of €11 billion
THE GLOBAL SCENE
Source: GWEC
CONTENTS
Wind energy markets
Wind industry actors
Targets and scenarios
UTILITIES LEAD THE MARKET(2007, MW INSTALLED)
Source: MAKE Consulting
Source: New Energy Finance,Notes: Rebased to July 2004. Wind asset price index benchmarks public acquisition prices (enterprise value)of commissioned wind asset globally.
2008 Percentage of deals financedwith project level debt 2007
8EUR 11,585mEUR 11,347m
2007
EU 27 new build wind asset finance 20072008 by type ofsponsor and sponsors use of project finance: EURm and %
4,713 5,236
3,7033,859
1,721 508
656 1,449
533554Undisclosed &others
Financial investors
IPP
Project developers
Utility
Balancesheet,64%
Projectfinance,
36%
60%
40%
71%
29%
Equity capital markets: Open tosecondary offerings/rights issues
Debt capital markets: Open to largeplayers, strong appetite for utilitybonds
Project debt: Severely undermined,looking to build on key relationshipswith cross sell opportunities
Equity capital markets: Closed topure play wind companies
Project debt: Severely underminedvery selective lending
Private equity: Actively investigatingopportunities in equity and juniordebt
Project debt: Severely underminedbanks choosing key relationships
Infrastructure funds: keen interest,new funds being raised
Trends
EU LEADERSHIP: EXPORT 2007
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
Vestas
GE Wind
Gamesa
Enercon
Suzlon
Siemens
Acciona
Goldwind
Nordex
Sinovel
Domestic Export
Source: BTM Consult
SUPPLY CHAIN STRATEGIES REIGNITE VERTICALINTEGRATION
Source: Emerging Energy Research
CONTENTS
Wind energy markets
Wind industry actors
Targets and scenarios
EU WIND ENERGY ANNUAL INSTALLATION20002020 (GW)
Source: EWEA
GLOBAL WIND ENERGY ANNUAL INSTALLATION20002020 (GW)
Source: GWEC
55.5 76.5112.5
145 164.8 180
120
74,5
35
12
1.13.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007 2010 2015 2020 2015 2030
Onshore Offshore
WIND ENERGY IN EU (2007–2030) & ELECTRICITY SHARE
3.7% 5% 8% 21%12% 16%
Source: EWEA
Electricity share
GW
2007 2010 2015 2020 2015 2030
THE EUROPEAN WINDENERGY ASSOCIATION
RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE6365 RUE D’ARLONB1040 BRUSSELS
T: +32 2 546 1940F: +32 2 546 1944E: [email protected]
THANK YOU VERY MUCHFOR YOUR ATTENTION