inemi 2015 roadmapthor.inemi.org/webdownload/2015/icep_2015/technology_rm.pdf · inemi 2015...

iNEMI 2015

Technology

Roadmaps

Bill Bader, iNEMI

April 16, 2015

ICEP Kyoto 2015 Conference

Topics

iNEMI Introduction

Roadmap Process Overview

Situation Analysis

Technology Needs

Paradigm Shifts

Medical PEG Highlights

Technology Sector

Summary/Next Steps

How to Get Involved

2ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference

About iNEMI

International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an industry-led

consortium of 100 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry associations,

government agencies and universities. A Non Profit Fully Funded by Member Dues;

In Operation Since 1994.

Visit us at www.inemi.org

5 Key Deliverables:

• Technology Roadmaps

• Collaborative Deployment

Projects

• Research Priorities Document

• Proactive Forums

• Position Papers

Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics

Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.

http://www.inemi.org/

2015 Roadmap

> 500 participants

> 280 companies/organizations

20 countries from 4 continents

19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)

5 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)

≈ 2000 pages of information

Roadmaps the needs for 2015-2025


Roadmap Contents

Organic PCBInterconnect

Assembly Customer

RF Components &

Subsystems

OptoelectronicsLarge Area, Flexible Electronics

Energy Storage Systems

Modeling, Simulation,

and Design

Semiconductor

Technology

Final

Assembly

Mass Storage (Magnetic, Optical & Solid State)

Passive Components

Test, Inspection &

Measurement

Environmentally

Sustainable

Electronics

Ceramic

Substrates

Thermal

Management

Electronic

Connectors

MEMS/

Sensors

Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem

Solid State Illumination

Photovoltaics

Power Conversion Electronics

ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 5

Optoelectronics and

Optical Storage

Organic Printed

Circuit Boards

Magnetic and

Optical Storage

Semiconductors

iNEMI

Mass Data

Storage

TWG

iNEMI / IPC /

EIPC / TPCA

Organic PWB

TWG

iNEMI / ITRS

/ MIG/PSMA

Packaging

TWG

iNEMI

Board

Assembly

TWG

Interconnect

Substrates—Ceramic

iNEMI Roadmap

iNEMI

Optoelectronics

TWG

iNEMI /

MIG / ITRS

MEMS

TWG

iNEMI

Passives

TWG

Fourteen Contributing Organizations


http://mpc-web.mit.edu/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=111&Itemid=27

http://mpc-web.mit.edu/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=111&Itemid=27

Projected Global Electronics Production


$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

2013

2015

2017

2019

2025

Projected Global Factory OEM Electronics Production by Product Sector ($ Billion)

Consumer/Office

Portable/Wireless

High End Computing

Aerospace & Defense

Automotive

MedicalP

roje

cted

Gro

wth

1.0 %

-1.2

4.4 %

4.4%

5.3 %

5.4%

Source: IHS Technology Report to iNEMI. (Aug 2014)

Key Factors Impacting the Product Sectors


Regional Analysis


2013 Regional Electronics Production


Major Drivers

Need for continuous introduction of complex multifunctional products to address converging markets favors modular components or SiP (2-D & 3-D):

Increases flexibility

Shortens design cycle

Cloud connected digital devices have the potential to enable major disruptions across the industry:

Major transition in business models

New Power Distribution Systems for Data Centers

Huge data centers operating more like utilities (selling data services)

Local compute and storage growth may slow (as data moves to the cloud)

“Rent vs. buy” for software (monthly usage fee model)

Rapid evolution and new challenges in energy consuming products such as SSL, Automotive and more

Sensors everywhere – MEMS and wireless traffic!

“More Moore” (scaling of pitch) has reached its forecast limit and must transition to heterogeneous integration - “More Than Moore”.


Major Drivers(continued)

The Internet of Things (IoT) is making sensors ubiquitous; however, there are concerns

about network security as cyber attacks become more pervasive.

The focus in portables will shift to “wearables” with multiple sensors providing unique user

interfaces and user interaction.

Advancement of automotive safety systems and potentially broader use in other segments.


Technology

Situation Analysis


Technology Situation Analysis

Consumers’ demand for thin multifunctional products has led to increased pressure on alternative high density packaging technologies.

High-density 3D packaging has become the major technology challenge

SiP:

Technology driver for small components, packaging, assembly processes and for high density substrates

New sensors and MEMs:

Expected to see exponential growth driven by portable products and multiple market demands

Motion gesture sensors expanding use of 2D-axis & 3D-axis gyroscopes

Segment maturing, encouraging industry collaboration

3D IC with TSV:

Driven by Performance and Size requirements


Technology Situation Analysis – con’d

New MEMS/Sensors driven by Automotive, Medical and Cell Phone applications

Thermal Management for Portable Products (incudes 3D-TSV)

Development of viable rework process for Pb-free soldering – low temp alloys highly

desirable

Reliability Evaluation and functional testing of MEMS

Testing of Energy Managed modules

Functional Testing of Complex SIPs

Low Temperature High Reliability Processing

Significant development will be required to drive down the cost of batteries for EV (Electric

Vehicle) applications from: $600/KWh to: $200/KWh.


Medical Product


Situation Analysis

# of people >65 yrs of age to ~double in next

20 yrs.

Bulk from China, India, developing countries

Average income levels also increasing

outside Americas/EU

Medical Electronics must execute “turn to

Asia” strategy- Build close to customers,

regulatory agencies

17

WW Demographics and incomes will drive increased demand for Medical Products of all types.

ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference

MEDICAL MARKET- 2014 IHS Update


Convergence in Class III Medical Therapy Devices

Smart, Connected Medical Microelectronics Miniaturized Connected Delivering therapy

Larg

e s

yste

ms fo

r Thera

py, D

iagnostic

s,

Sto

rage a

nd C

om

munic

atio

ns

Port

able

, patient

sid

e,

dia

gnostic a

nd

monitoring

Cochlear

Vagus Nerve & Spinal

Urinary

Implant

Gastric

Retinal

Cardiac

Brain


Digital Health: New Horizons

Miniaturization / Nano

- MEMS

- Self or bio powered systems

- Localized measurement – ex lab on a chip

- Gaseous and biological sensors – military and homeland security applications.

MEM’s and Implantable Devices are a rapidly growing market segment.

New Research / Growth Areas

- Bio-Chemical Sensors

- Alternative Power and Rechargable Batteries

- Wearable, patient monitoring systems

- RF telemetry, offloading diagnostics from primary device

- Nano-scale materials, coatings and conductors

- New High Density Batteries MnO2, may lead to 10+ year life.

- Very small scale systems:

Battery for artificial retina (Sandia)

All these advancements lead to complex problems involving materials management, energy constraints, data security, reliability and above all patient safety.


Automotive PEG

Chair: Jim Spall, Delphi

Key Automotive Market Issues

The automotive electronics industry accounted for Factory OEM Revenues ($M) of $107Bn in 2013.

The sector is expected to experience relatively strong growth through 2025, increasing at a CAAGR

of about almost 4.4% per year.

The confluence of accelerating electronic content across the globe with strong emerging market

vehicle sales growth helps explain the automotive electronics market potential over the next six

years.

From a low of just over 60M vehicles produced in 2009 during the recession, global passenger car

and light commercial vehicle unit shipments rebounded to over 75M in 2011.

China has surpassed the US as the largest car market in the world.

Overall vehicle unit shipment growth off the 2011 base is expected to grow by just under 6% per

year thereafter.

Major Trends Driving Auto Electronics

Stricter fuel economy and emissions mandates

Legislated requirements for advanced safety systems, such as

advanced airbags and on-board tire pressure monitoring

Consumer demand for:

Greater vehicle efficiencies driven by escalating global crude oil

prices

Greater safety, comfort, and convenience features

Luxury features

Growth of hybrid and electric vehicles

Embedded Semiconductors’ Growth Forecast

Miniaturization: This table provides a view of

miniaturization impact in automotive electronics

MEMS TWG

MEMS Technology Working Group The MEMS TWG is affiliated with the MEMS Industry Group (MIG)

and the ITRS

The chapter publishes its findings in the iNEMI and ITRS roadmaps in alternating

years.

The MEMS Industry Group (MIG) is the trade association advancing MEMS and

sensors across global markets.

Over 160 companies comprise MIG http://www.memsindustrygroup.org

MEMS Chapter Main Contributors Michael Gaitan (Chair), NIST Mary Ann Maher, SoftMEMS

Philippe Robert (Co-Chair), LETI Arthur Morris, Wispry

Stephen Bart, MKS Instruments Rob O'Reilly, Analog Devices

Steve Breit, Coventor Marcie Weinstein, Akustica

Allen Cowen. MEMSCAP Jianmin Miao, NTU

Alissa Fitzgerald, AF & Assoc. Ramdesh Ramados, Form Factor Inc

Karen Lightman, MIG John Rychcik, Xcerra

27

iNEMI MEMS Chapter Situation Analysis

Markets

Manufacturers

Applications

Roadmap of Quantified

Attributes: Performance, Size,

Reliability

Inertial Sensors

Microphones

RF MEMS

28

• Technology Needs

– Design

– Fabrication

– Assembly and Packaging

– Testing

• Critical Issues

– Co-Design

– Standard Process Modules

– Packaging and Integration

– Standard Testing Protocols

Device Manufacturers

29

“Bosch now holds a third of the $3.8 billion revenue shared by the top five.”

- Jean Christophe Eloy, President & CEO at Yole

Accelerometer

Magnetometer

Gyroscope

Ambient Light

Pressure

Touch

Haptic

Fingerprint

Health

Environmental

UV &RGB

Humidity

Microphone

Motion Characterization

Contextual Awareness

Health & Fitness

Smart TV Remote

Gestures

Navigation

Biometrics Unlock

Heart Rate

Blood Sugar

CO and Pollutants

Multimedia

Haptic Feedback

Building Floor

Sensors ApplicationsSmart Phones

Samsung

Apple

Adapted from “Sensors System Integration Challenges, Len Sheynblat, M2M Forum, May 2012

Microsoft

Accelerometer

Gyroscope

Magnetometer

Pressure

Microphone

Temperature

Conductivity

Camera/Optical Sensor

Micro Speakers

eNose

pH

Humidity

Galvanic Skin Response

Caloric Consumption

Exercise Intensity

Exercise Safety

Sleep Patterns

Heart Rate

Blood Pressure

Walking Directions

Gas Monitor

Altitude

Motion

Shock

Messaging

Emergency Response

Nike

BodyMedia

Fitbit

Devices Applications

Samsung

Wearables

Apple

Roadmapping MEMS

New Devices Information from Conferences, Publications, Patents

There is a long gap between discovery and production. The

“MEMS Report Card” reports a 25 year gap.

Discrete Devices Exhibit incremental improvements in performance, size, power,

cost

No “Moore’s Law” equivalent and manufacturers have little

motivation to share future device performance metrics

Multimode Sensors The steps taken for multiple types of sensors and controllers into

a single package

The Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) exemplifies integration path

Opportunities for Collaboration

Discrete Devices

Testing

Integration Path

Identify manufacturing gaps

33

Testing

Assembly, packaging, and testing can consume the bulk of the

manufacturing cost.

MEMS Industry Group studies report testing can consume as much

as 60% of the manufacturing cost

Manufacturers have developed proprietary methods for device

calibration and reliability tests.

In order to drive down costs, manufacturers must transition to

commercially available test equipment.

Device performance defined in datasheets is not based on standard

tests.

This creates a communication gap between the device

manufacturers and their customers.

34

Key

Recommendation


Standards Development

Final assembly process definitions and metrics.

MEMS standardization of reliability test methods and standards for critical applications such

as implantable medical devices.

International sustainability standards based on common databases and data sets.


Board Assembly


Process Technology

Almost 50% failure related to EOS(ESD) due to IC sensitivity to HBM or CDM

A quantitative 3-steps control approach is proposed to mitigate the EOS risk

Take ESD process capability measurement, check component spec, risk mitigation plan


Assembly Material

Continuous Lead-Free solder and low silver SAC Halogen free prevail overtime for flux

Parameter Metric 2013 2015 2017 2019 2025

Solder Pastes

Lead-free

NA* 50% 50% 60% 70% 95%

Lead-free

WW** 70% 70% 70% 80% 95%

Halogen-free

NA 10% 10% 20% 40% 85%

Halogen-free

WW 25% 25% 40% 60% 95%

Low Temp

Lead-free

Assembly

<1% <1% <1% 5% 10%

Alloys

(Lead-free)

SAC/ SAC/ SAC/ SAC/ SAC/

Modified

SnCu/ Modified SnCu/ Modified SnCu/ Modified SnCu/ Modified SnCu/

Low Ag

SAC Low Ag SAC/ Low Ag SAC/ Low Ag SAC/ Low Ag SAC/

Low Temp Low Temp

Wave Solder

Fluxes

VOC free 10% 10% 10% 15% 20%

Halogen free 10% 10% 20% 40% 70%

Assembly Material

Type Purpose

CSP / BGA Improved vibration and impact resistance

DCA (Direct Chip Attach) Maintain joint integrity during thermal and power cycling

• Underfill – two strengthening mechanisms

Underfills

Low-k ILD

JEDEC L2

@ 260

JEDEC L2 @

260

JEDEC L2 @

260

JEDEC L2 @

260

JEDEC L2 @

260

45 nm tech 45 nm tech 45 nm tech 45 nm tech 32 and below

nm tech

Pre-applied

FC

JEDEC

L2@ 260

JEDEC L2A @

260

JEDEC L2A @

260

JEDEC L2A @

260

JEDEC L1 @

260

Large Die 30 mm low-

k 30 mm low-k 30 mm low-k 30 mm low-k 30 mm low-k

CSP Reworkable Reworkable Reworkable Reworkable Reworkable >>

25%

Parameter Metric 2013 2015 2017 2019 2025

The iNEMI Roadmap

I shared a small sample of information from our roadmap

There are 19 TECHNOLOGY CHAPTERS

There are 5 PRODUCT MARKET SEGMENTS

It is a wealth of information on trends for the next 10 years

From it you can make good business investment decisions

You can choose where to focus for highest returns

You can set the winning technology and business targets

We encourage you to get a copy of the iNEMI Roadmap at:

www.inemi.org


http://www.inemi.org/

Bill [email protected]

Grace O’[email protected]

Chuck Richardson

[email protected]

Get Involved in

the iNEMI

Roadmap!!

Contact Information

inemi 2015 roadmapthor.inemi.org/webdownload/2015/icep_2015/technology_rm.pdf · inemi 2015...

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