Influencing Government – Influencing Government – Part 2Part 2

Public Opinion, Polls, Interest Public Opinion, Polls, Interest groups, lobbies and PACsgroups, lobbies and PACs

Public Public OpinionOpinion• What is it?

– ideas and attitudes that *most people hold about a particular issue or person.

• Which public?– Often not a consensus on issues – diversity of

beliefs [but watch how people and organizations use the term “public opinion”

• Why does it matter?– It supports democracy by informing officials of

people’s ideas and opinions

– Serves to direct or even shape government priorities and actions

– Is that what public officials should do? The answer may not be that simple [they never are]

* What does “most” mean, and how do we determine it?

Measuring public opinionMeasuring public opinion• Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Polls

– Asking people to answer Asking people to answer content neutral questions content neutral questions about about their views and preferences.their views and preferences.

– Creating the polling universe – accounting for all the Creating the polling universe – accounting for all the significant demographics [age, religion, gender, ethnicity, significant demographics [age, religion, gender, ethnicity, region, income level, party affiliation, education, etc., etc.]region, income level, party affiliation, education, etc., etc.]

– Asking 1500 gives you an accuracy of +/- 3% nationwideAsking 1500 gives you an accuracy of +/- 3% nationwide• E.g. a result of 55% could actually be as high as 58% or as low as E.g. a result of 55% could actually be as high as 58% or as low as

52%52%

• Push PollsPush Polls– Questions are worded so they influence – manipulate – a Questions are worded so they influence – manipulate – a

person’s responses one way or the other. person’s responses one way or the other. • ““Which would you choose, a candidate who is tough on crime, or Which would you choose, a candidate who is tough on crime, or

your neighborhood overrun with drugs and violence?”your neighborhood overrun with drugs and violence?”• So the organization can claim “85% of Americans agree with us!”So the organization can claim “85% of Americans agree with us!”• Now it’s propaganda [the bad kind]Now it’s propaganda [the bad kind]

Public Polls – Good or Bad?Public Polls – Good or Bad?• YesYes• Support for pollsSupport for polls

– It allows office holders to know how the public feels in It allows office holders to know how the public feels in between elections.between elections.

– Pretty accurately predicts election outcomes on election day Pretty accurately predicts election outcomes on election day [exit polls][exit polls]

• Problems with PollsProblems with Polls– The horse race – focus on who’s ahead rather than issuesThe horse race – focus on who’s ahead rather than issues– Also makes elected officials care more about what the public Also makes elected officials care more about what the public

thinks instead of being a leader and making wise decisionsthinks instead of being a leader and making wise decisions• ““There go my people. I must find out where they are going so I can There go my people. I must find out where they are going so I can

lead them.”lead them.”

– May influence opinion as many will not want to be in a May influence opinion as many will not want to be in a minority position [bandwagon effect/spiral of silence]minority position [bandwagon effect/spiral of silence]

President Obama’s Approval RatingPresident Obama’s Approval Rating

• What does this mean? What does this mean?

• What might it mean?What might it mean?

Approval Ratings of Past PresidentsApproval Ratings of Past Presidents

What’s the trend? How much of this is self-reinforcing or self-fulfilling prophecy?How might that affect Congressional races? [we talked about this]Or relations between Congress and the President? [we talked about this, too.]

Interest and Lobby Interest and Lobby GroupsGroups• What are they?

– Groups with a common cause and interest

• Connects people to activism and possibly gov’t [freedom of assembly

– Attempt to influence policy makers• Provide expert opinion and information• Often contribute heavily to campaigns

– Many can count strength in numbers – NRA, NOW

– Others’ strength is in legal/political action – AIPAC*, ACLU

* The Power Game p. 217

Interest and Lobby Groups, Interest and Lobby Groups, by typeby type

• Public interest groups– Support causes for that effect the lives

of American’s in general.– Single issue groups– Common Cause, Public Citizen

• Economic groups– Often represent/support professional

groups [lawyers, soft drink bottlers, tobacco growers, etc., etc. ad nauseum]

• Lobbyists– Representatives of interest groups who

contact lawmakers or other government officials directly, to push their interests.

• Pros?

• Cons?

• Political action committees (PAC’s)– Fundraising and spending

for interest groups, unions and corporations

– $$ contributions from members are “bundled” and used to advance an issue and/or candidate

– Contribution limits– Account for around 30% of

campaign donations

• Good or Bad?– What’s the bad? [let’s talk!]

– What’s the good? [let’s talk!]

YES!

What and who are lobbyists?What and who are lobbyists?• Lobbyists

– Representatives of interest groups who contact lawmakers or other government officials directly, to push their interests.

• Pros?– What they know– A voice

• Cons?– Revolving door?– $$– Influence?